Democracy Corps poll shows Romney up 15 among independents

posted at 12:41 pm on August 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Via Suitably Flip and RCP, the latest poll from James Carville’s Democracy Corps should have the sirens wailing over at Team Obama.  The topline numbers show Barack Obama with a two-point lead over Mitt Romney, 49/47, down from a 4-point lead in July.  The new sample is D+6 at 38/32/28, only a slight change from July’s D+5 at 38/33/25, a margin-of-error change from one poll to the next (which is true of the topline change, from 50/46, as well).  However, there are a couple of big red flags in the data that hint at a much different race than what the toplines represent.

First, take a look at the independent vote for the race, which in this format is the fourth column:

That’s a 15-point lead for Romney among independents, 53.4/38.0.  Fifteen points.  Just to remind everyone, in the D+7 turnout of 2008 in a Democratic wave election, Obama won independents by eight points, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point victory overall.  That’s a 23-point shift in this key demographic, way outside the margin of error, and it’s hard to square that with a two-point Obama lead now.

Nor is that the only problem in the demos.  Take a look at the gender gap, which Obama won by a combined 14 points in 2008.  Romney wins men by 3.5 points now (Obama edged John McCain by one in 2008), and Obama only leads by 6.7 points among women, 51.7/45.0.  That’s a combined gender gap of 3.2 points, a drop of ten points in this measure from 2008.

If Obama loses independents outside of the margin of error and only gets a gender gap within the MoE, he’s toast.

Update: The split with women was 51.7/45.0, not 41.0.  I’ve fixed it above.

Update II: I screwed up the first edit by saying that the gap among women was 9 points; I had that right originally, but rewrote the passage and introduced a new error.  This video clip seems to apply best:


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…if the polls show more than a couple of points difference…the poll takers are racist and asking the wrong questions!

KOOLAID2 on August 29, 2012 at 1:35 PM

This video clip seems to apply best:
.
excerpt: Ed Morrisey

.
Is there any “SNAFU” in our daily walk of life that doesn’t have some video clip from that movie to apply to it?

: )

listens2glenn on August 29, 2012 at 1:36 PM

…if the polls show more than a couple of points difference…the poll takers are racist and asking the wrong questions!

KOOLAID2 on August 29, 2012 at 1:35 PM

They’re not polling. They’re dog-whistling!

de rigueur on August 29, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Answering pollsters calls is by no way is a measurement of enthusiasm…

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:33 PM

I get so many robo calls that I now let all of my calls go to voicemail. If it’s important, theyll leave a message.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Honestly curious – Yesterday, you posted about the poll you have formulated. What sort of track record does your method have, or how accurate is it?

AubieJon on August 29, 2012 at 1:28 PM

I told you yesterday to post your email address and I will email you my elections prediction model. It is FREE… Anyone who wants it can do the same…

In fact if you do not want to post your email on this forum you can e-mail it to me at mnjg123@yahoo.com and I will email you back my elections predictions model. Anyone else who is interested can also email me.

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Fortunately this is the US of A and not your beloved USSR and you can’t pull someone’s ‘GOP credentials’ (whatever that means) just because you don’t like their faces or they are a threat to your interests…but hey, if you miss that kind of bullying tactics, Putin is still doing it in Russia, so you can always give it a try there :)..

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Typical genius RINO viewpoint.

riddick on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I wonder why polling organizations believe the likely voter mix will be so strongly weighted to Democrats.

It sure would be interesting to hear their explanations. “Mass delusion” seems to be the popular explanation here and, yet, you would think that since their professional reputations are at stake the pollsters would have a pretty logical explanation. I’d love to hear it.

MTF on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

It’s mortifying to me as a woman that Obama runs ahead of Romney with women in these polls.
natasha333 on August 29, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Maybe I can help explain the phenomenon by sharing the draft of an opening paragraph of an MBA application letter written by an Obama voter. Need I declare emphasis added?

I have applied for a Master’s degree in Business Administration at George Washington University because, now that I have begun to establish a career, I can envision how continuing education will help make further progress towards my goals. My decision to apply at GW is informed and well researched and to show how I evaluated and arrived at this decision, I will begin by discussing how I came to the realization that I wanted to pursue an MBA. I will then explain why GW is the best option for me. And finally, I will describe how an MBA from GW will enhance the career path I intend to achieve.

bettycooper on August 29, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Akin apologists forgot what got him in trouble: he claimed ‘legitimate’ rape victims don’t get pregnant. Then the Dems took over, conflated his statement with all Republicans don’t care about rape which Akin did not and could not counteract.

Just his presence causes frothing and he doesn’t care.

Akin is not being criticized for being strongly pro-life, he is being criticized for being stupid about it.

It’s not as if he is the only pro-life advocate out there, neither does it mean those who want him GONE are RINO’s.

MaggiePoo on August 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM

and little stevie in another thread. Giving pretty much the same threat.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Oh, that one called Cindy M a democrat yesterday on the ann romney thread :)….that after he preached a few good months that we should vote for Obama (only to impeach him later on :)..I mean seriously, he gives ‘unstable’ a whole new depths…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Is there any “SNAFU” in our daily walk of life that doesn’t have some video clip from that movie to apply to it?

: )

listens2glenn on August 29, 2012 at 1:36 PM

I think of it every time I screw up fixing a screw up.

Ed Morrissey on August 29, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Typical genius RINO viewpoint.

riddick on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

As opposed to full ABR retard viewpoint …

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:46 PM

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM

They are loosing it.

Just got called a mitt-bot and DU plant by little stevie.

I guess in his twisted view of reality, one could be both.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 1:47 PM

I pay no attention to polls at all…Here’s why…

I have been a registered voter for 28 years. (Cast my first vote for President Reagan.) I have voted in every election – national, state, and even the local races during odd years. I have photo I.D.,and my name, address, and phone # are easy to find.

Now, with ALL the polls that have been conducted over the last 28 years, care to guess how many times I have contacted by phone or mail by any polling group?…Yep…not once, ever.

I don’t listen to them, and I make no decisions based on them.

fortcoins on August 29, 2012 at 1:49 PM

That’s it for me. The RINOs have destroyed ever thing Reagan built. The vitriol toward Akin is the final straw. Take your damn be nice, coddling crap of the real enemy and shove it where the sun don’t shine.

bgibbs1000 on August 29, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Right, he just said if you got pregnant after getting raped your rape wasn’t legitimate, you really wanted it, it wasn’t a problem, and you’re a liar.

Who could be offended by that?

Only a RINO or someone who opposes the Reagan legacy. Reagan knew all about the magical vagina goalies who block the sperm of real rapists… right?

I’m sorry if you believe what Akin said… I’m also sorry if you believe the world is flat. But it doesn’t help anyone for me to try to drag your stupid illogical irrational candidate to victory while he’s out saying any stupid thing that comes to mind.

Maybe that makes me a RINO in your book for not being willing to sacrifice everything for the good of a complete idiot.

In your book is a Democrat a DINO if he thinks Biden is less than clever too?

gekkobear on August 29, 2012 at 1:52 PM

…if the polls show more than a couple of points difference…the poll takers are racist and asking the wrong questions!

KOOLAID2 on August 29, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Apparently not just the pollsters…have you seen Drudge headline and the lead story…..apparently the Yahoo! Washington Bureau Chief David Chalian got caught on an ABC webcast saying that Mitt Romney would be “happy to have a party when black people drown.”

The good news, the guy has jus been fired…but that’s just because he was caught saying it out loud on the ABC webcast…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Okay, I think I’ve finally figured out the polls.

Best I can figure, we’re seeing a lot of volatility among independents. They’re not particularly happy with either of those choices but KNOW they don’t want to vote for Obama. This is why we sometimes see Polls with Romney having large leads among independents, while other times its a near tie.

Therefore, whenever polls show reflect a large independent advantage, and the democratic skew isn’t too vast, Romney is shown to be ahead.

While, alternately, even with a small skew it may show Obama ahead if the volatile independent voters didn’t break their way that particular day.

All this said, far more polls show a Romney advantage among independents than a tie. This suggests there IS a real advantage there, which is bad news for the Obama campaign.

WolvenOne on August 29, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Do you really believe that answering pollsters calls equals higher enthusiasm?… I get pollsters calls every week but I do not answer them but rather let the calls “robocall” goes into my voicemail…

Answering pollsters calls is by no way is a measurement of enthusiasm…

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:33 PM

It’s not me, it’s pollsters–self-identified partisan id is a large part of their weighting and they’ve always claimed it reflects enthusiasm.

I don’t answer polls either, and R’s claiming they hang up on pollsters is nothing new—happens every cycle—so I doubt a huge difference this time.

MaggiePoo on August 29, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Akin apologists forgot what got him in trouble: he claimed ‘legitimate’ rape victims don’t get pregnant.

That’s not what he said and if you would do a little research you would know that.

Besides that, he did show that he believes in a theory espoused by some doctors about some rape victims which make him appear to be very naieve. It calls into question his ability to explain his other conservative beliefs of which he should be lauded for.

If another conservative gets in the race, he/she will get my vote but otherwise, he’ll get my vote.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 1:57 PM

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:43 PM

They are loosing it.

Just got called a mitt-bot and DU plant by little stevie.

I guess in his twisted view of reality, one could be both.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Loool :) that and more….voting for baraka makes one a staunch con and a patriot in steve’s convoluted and deeply afflicted tiny mind :)..

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:58 PM

I get so many robo calls that I now let all of my calls go to voicemail. If it’s important, theyll leave a message.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Same here… That is why the party ID sampling that is based on who answered the phone in a poll is not refelective at all with the actual party ID breakdown of the electorate that is going to vote.

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Carville?? I wonder if he is just messing with us. I still for the life of me can’t figure out why Obama is ahead.

earlgrey133 on August 29, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Best I can figure, we’re seeing a lot of volatility among independents. They’re not particularly happy with either of those choices but KNOW they don’t want to vote for Obama. This is why we sometimes see Polls with Romney having large leads among independents, while other times its a near tie.

Idependents want to be liked and respected so they don’t know how they’ll vote until election day.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Lucky y’all, I have a couple of empty duplexes, I have to answer the phone.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Akin apologists forgot what got him in trouble: he claimed ‘legitimate’ rape victims don’t get pregnant.

That’s not what he said and if you would do a little research you would know that.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 1:57 PM

That’s exactly what he said, stop making excuses for that d-bag..that wasn’t bad semantics or wording, that was utter ignorance…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:01 PM

That’s not what he said and if you would do a little research you would know that.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Oh, please. Junk science is junk science no matter which side believes it. And, oh, he said the actual words “legitimate rape”.

MaggiePoo on August 29, 2012 at 2:04 PM

That’s exactly what he said, stop making excuses for that d-bag..that wasn’t bad semantics or wording, that was utter ignorance…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Prove it.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Prove it.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:05 PM

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cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Right, he just said if you got pregnant after getting raped your rape wasn’t legitimate, you really wanted it, it wasn’t a problem, and you’re a liar.

Who could be offended by that?

gekkobear on August 29, 2012 at 1:52 PM

That’s a quite disingenuous misstatement of what Akin said.

The “legitimate rape” comment comes from the fact that the exception to abortion (where it is legal to kill the baby) is cases of rape and incest. If one wants an abortion with this restriction is in place then claiming rape would be a means to secure that abortion whether that was the actual circumstance or not. Though clumsily stated, he was trying to distinguish between cases of actual rape having occurred vs. claiming that it occurred when it did not. Mocking him for his subsequent statements regarding “shutting down” etc. is perfectly within bounds, but his pointing out the fact that when an exception is allowed that people will exploit that exception is contrary to human behavior.

Yes, the other exception is when the mother’s life is in danger. Given that abortion is the killing of an unborn child, it seems that this is really the only legitimate exception that should be made because this then becomes a matter of self defense. Either the mother or the baby loses its life. The rape and incest exception kills a living unborn baby because of an act for which it had no control and was not responsible for.

Note: I am not defending Akin, he was at best clumsy in how he spoke and his continued pursuit of self-aggrandizement at the potential cost to re-taking the Senate is selfish at best.

AZfederalist on August 29, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Idependents want to be liked and respected so they don’t know how they’ll vote until election day.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Aww, Dr Ablow meets Dr Luntz, don’t tell us that you are now an expert on how independents’ minds work… next you’re going to tell us that the independents have a deep daddy/father figure complex that translates in voting for strong, masculine candidates that project a sense of power, or that they all secretly want to sleep with their mothers or what elșe, Dr Freud…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Oh, please. Junk science is junk science no matter which side believes it. And, oh, he said the actual words “legitimate rape”.

MaggiePoo on August 29, 2012 at 2:04 PM

There are individuals who cvlaim that they were raped and they make this claim for many reasons. Their “rape” is not legitimate. I’m sure that your phrasing is always perfect and spot on but many of us are not that fortunate.

If you live here in Missouri you would know that a vote for Akin is a much better vote than a vote for McCaskill.

Also, I want to apologize for going off topic as I have no wish to be banned.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Ed’s not telling the full story. Only 267 independents surveyed here which gives you an MoE of about +/- 6%. It’s worth raising an eyebrow but is no where near Ed’s unbridled excitement level.

newtopia on August 29, 2012 at 2:11 PM

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Whatever. That’s my opinion and I’m sure you have one too.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:12 PM

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:07

I know, right…I swore to myself I wouldn’t go there with these nutjobs….not again…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:12 PM

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:07 PM

All right, but you should consider that a nuke and almost never use it. :)

Axe on August 29, 2012 at 2:13 PM

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Talented? What other tricks can you do?

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Vince on August 29, 2012, at 2:05 pm

“It seems to me, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare,” Mr. Akin said of pregnancies from rape. “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let’s assume that maybe that didn’t work or something: I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be of the rapist, and not attacking the child.”

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:15 PM

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Sometimes, ya’ have to roll in the mud with the nutballs.

Axe on August 29, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Can’t think of a more appropriate time than this one.

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Well, I think I’m pretty good at Whack-A-Troll.

Did it knock any sense into you?

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:17 PM

As opposed to full ABR retard viewpoint …

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 1:46 PM

So, what will you retards say if Romney wins and HusseinCare stands? Future threads will be more than interesting.

Funny, and PATHETIC, how you mention Putin and then fail to see there is no difference between what happened there (Putin will save us all!) and eventual reality. You elect a progressive liberal, you should expect the consequences. Too bad you’re stupid enough not to see what’s in front of your face.

I am bracing myself for either Hussein/Romney win, no matter who dies we’re pretty much screwed. One way or another.

As you correctly stated, I HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE AND KNOW HOW IT ENDS.

Too bad idiots like you (and the rest of RINOs) have not.

But its OK, kids, carry on, just don’t cry when the inevitable happens.

Have a nice day.

riddick on August 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Well, I think I’m pretty good at Whack-A-Troll.

Did it knock any sense into you?

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:17 PM

What’s your definition of a troll and do you consider me one? (You missed by the way)

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Ed’s not telling the full story. Only 267 independents surveyed here which gives you an MoE of about +/- 6%. It’s worth raising an eyebrow but is no where near Ed’s unbridled excitement level.

newtopia on August 29, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Still well outside the margin of error, and the fact that we’ve seen numerous polls that showed Romney pulling ahead among independents suggests it isn’t an outlier.

WolvenOne on August 29, 2012 at 2:23 PM

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Talented? What other tricks can you do?

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:14 PM

He can do and often engages in coercive mind control, so, stay away from him :)…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:26 PM

(You missed by the way)

Vince on August 29, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Sure I did sweet twit.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:27 PM

And with the media meltdown after just the first day of the convention.

jake49 on August 29, 2012 at 2:33 PM

I am bracing myself for either Hussein/Romney win, no matter who dies we’re pretty much screwed. One way or another.

riddick on August 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Yes, daddy, thanks for warning us, you input is unvaluable, as usually /s…

no matter who ‘dies’ ??? :) I really hope none of them do…

well, am sure you kept your USSR/Russian citizenship, if shite happens and we get screwed up here, as you predict, you can always go back there :)…I’ll go to Australia, my bro lives there :)…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Romney takes independents by 15 points and is still behind by 2? WTF?

jnelchef on August 29, 2012 at 2:38 PM

And with the media meltdown after just the first day of the convention.

jake49 on August 29, 2012 at 2:33 PM

I predict that by Friday they will all be collectively admitted in mental hospitals around the nation under the generic category ‘media mental patient’ ‘ :)…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 2:38 PM

It is pretty telling about the ideology of the Romney sychophants what side they are really on. When they have good news, they lash out and attack anyone that is not on their side. When they have bad news, they lash out and attack anyone that is not on their side. The Obamification of the republican party. If you these cockroaches will be easily gotten rid of after Obama is out of office, just look at the schools, media, labor unions and Hollywood to see how easy it is to take back control from liberal progressive thugs once they have infiltrated your ranks.

The Obamification of the republican party. As shown with the top level power grab Romney pulled off, all while the useful idiots were raving about how it was to empower the little people… Sound familiar? Get used to it!

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:40 PM

The Obamification of the republican party.

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Writes the 0bama supporter.

Sound familiar?

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Yep, every time you write it.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Writes the 0bama supporter.

Sound familiar?

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Yep, every time you write it.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Anti Romney does equate to pro Obama.

Pro Romney does equate to pro socilization of the country

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Writes the 0bama supporter.

Sound familiar?

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Yep, every time you write it.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Anti Romney does equate to pro Obama.

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:58 PM

For once I agree with you….

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Anti Romney does equate to pro Obama.

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:58 PM

That, and your claim that you will vote for 0bama and so will all of your family members. Its a plus that you claim that all y’all live in swing states.

So, yep by your own admission you are an 0bama supporter.

Pro Romney does equate to pro socilization of the country

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Sure sweetheart, you stick with that.

cozmo on August 29, 2012 at 3:04 PM

So, what will you retards say if Romney wins and HusseinCare stands? Future threads will be more than interesting.

Funny, and PATHETIC,

riddick on August 29, 2012 at 2:21 PM

What’s funny and pathetic is your attitude. Yeah,with a Romney win, there is a chance Obamatax will stand despite the promises from the candidate that he will sign repeal. That also requires that we take the Senate because Dingy Harry will never allow debate on repeal.

So, here’s your choices: 1) a reasonably good chance of repeal if Romney wins or 2) Zero, get that, ZERO, again, zero chance of repeal if Obama wins re-election. So, as I weigh those two options, it seems that reasonably good outweighs zero everywhere it is tried.

Now, if Romney doesn’t repeal and governs as a RINO, then the existence of the Republic is in jeopardy and I would not be surprised to see a split in the US. But that is less likely than if Jugears gets a second term.

I don’t know about you, but doom and gloom and “woe is me!” thinking doesn’t cut it. When there is a hope, one takes that hope and goes with it instead of cowering in a corner like some liberal jackwagon crying about all the bad things that are going to happen no matter who wins. YMMV

AZfederalist on August 29, 2012 at 3:06 PM

So, here’s your choices: 1) a reasonably good chance of repeal if Romney wins or 2) Zero, get that, ZERO, again, zero chance of repeal if Obama wins re-election. So, as I weigh those two options, it seems that reasonably good outweighs zero everywhere it is tried.

Now, if Romney doesn’t repeal and governs as a RINO, then the existence of the Republic is in jeopardy and I would not be surprised to see a split in the US. But that is less likely than if Jugears gets a second term.

I don’t know about you, but doom and gloom and “woe is me!” thinking doesn’t cut it. When there is a hope, one takes that hope and goes with it instead of cowering in a corner like some liberal jackwagon crying about all the bad things that are going to happen no matter who wins. YMMV

AZfederalist on August 29, 2012 at 3:06 PM

The real two choices is:
Obama 0 chance
Romney an infintesimally small number slightly more than 0 chance

The consequences are:
Re-empowered progressive liberal Democrat party as the Republican party slides to the left and fails and is called out by the media daily. A re-demoralized and quickly progressivising Republican party led by My Views Are Progressive leadership. The end of opposition parties and the beggining of two cooperative big government monstrocities. All at the time in our country that YOU are screaming is our very absolute last hope of recovering PERIOD.

But hey, I am sure it will work out great for you. Really, I will just be over here, I mean WAAAAAAAAY over here while you test it out.

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 3:15 PM

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Perhaps the best thing for all concerned would be if you dig yourself a hole and pull the dirt in after you.

We’ll be sure to let you know when it’s safe to come out.

Adjoran on August 29, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Newdopia is going to be fun to have around come November.

DrStock on August 29, 2012 at 3:29 PM

astonerii on August 29, 2012 at 3:15 PM

OK jackwagon, what’s your solution? You have a path here to a good outcome or are you just going to cower in the corner screaming you don’t have any choices and we are all going to die?

I have no patience for defeatists and that is how you come across. Just like Timmy Geitner, you’ve got no plan, you just know you don’t like the one somebody else has.

AZfederalist on August 29, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Could somebody explain this to me:

That’s a 15-point lead for Romney among independents, 53.4/38.0. Fifteen points. Just to remind everyone, in the D+7 turnout of 2008 in a Democratic wave election, Obama won independents by eight points, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point victory overall. That’s a 23-point shift in this key demographic, way outside the margin of error, and it’s hard to square that with a two-point Obama lead now

.

Shouldn’t Romney be ahead in the poll then? Is that what Ed means by it being hard to square with the 2-point lead? Shouldn’t someone be able to go through the numbers and see where all of these Obama votes are coming from?

hisfrogness on August 29, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Newdopia is going to be fun to have around come November.

DrStock on August 29, 2012 at 3:29 PM

If he gobbles down huge quantities of anti-depressant pils…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Willard Mitt Romney, the 45th President of the United States of America!

I didn’t get enough of that last night and just had to do it again :-)

I think that if anything, Mitt has an even larger lead among indies than the polls, including this one, reflect. My suspicion lies on the Bradley effect. People are well conditioned now to tell pollsters that they like Obama (who the hell wants to be called a racist?). That will not translate in to votes this time around. White guilt has been replaced by buyer’s remorse.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:41 PM

I think that if anything, Mitt has an even larger lead among indies than the polls, including this one, reflect. My suspicion lies on the Bradley effect. People are well conditioned now to tell pollsters that they like Obama (who the hell wants to be called a racist?). That will not translate in to votes this time around. White guilt has been replaced by buyer’s remorse.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:41 PM

People said that in 2008 and it did not happen that way. I would not count on this.

Monkeytoe on August 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Last week, Fox had Indis LVs favoring Romney by 10 points, which was the upper level for summer polls.

Now, DC has Romney up by 15%.

Does anyone have the cross tabs for the last couple DC polls to see if they show a trend?

Bart DePalma on August 29, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Monkeytoe on August 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Nope. In 2008 there was a world of difference. First off, white guilt played heavily in Obama’s favor. Now that our consciences are all purged and we can say, “been there, done that,” people will not be so keen on another affirmative action pick. Next, Obama now has a record and people will tell themselves that they won’t be fooled again by this poser. Finally, in 2008, Obama got to run against a SonOfABush candidate who supported the most unpopular policies of a disastrously unpopular POTUS.

There are no comparisons to 2008. Absolutely none.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Nope. In 2008 there was a world of difference. First off, white guilt played heavily in Obama’s favor. Now that our consciences are all purged and we can say, “been there, done that,” people will not be so keen on another affirmative action pick. Next, Obama now has a record and people will tell themselves that they won’t be fooled again by this poser. Finally, in 2008, Obama got to run against a SonOfABush candidate who supported the most unpopular policies of a disastrously unpopular POTUS.

There are no comparisons to 2008. Absolutely none.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:54 PM

I agree with you in terms of the election generally, I am saying that people thought the Bradley effect would happen in 2008 and it didn’t – thus I wouldn’t necessarily rely on that belief when reading the polls. I’m as mystified as anyone as to how Obama’s poll numbers are as good as they are – but I don’t believe the Bradley effect explains it.

Monkeytoe on August 29, 2012 at 4:31 PM

I think that if anything, Mitt has an even larger lead among indies than the polls, including this one, reflect. My suspicion lies on the Bradley effect. People are well conditioned now to tell pollsters that they like Obama (who the hell wants to be called a racist?). That will not translate in to votes this time around. White guilt has been replaced by buyer’s remorse.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:41 PM

People said that in 2008 and it did not happen that way. I would not count on this.

Monkeytoe on August 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

He had no record then, remember??… He has one now, and it’s one of failure,…

jimver on August 29, 2012 at 4:34 PM

People are well conditioned now to tell pollsters that they like Obama (who the hell wants to be called a racist?). That will not translate in to votes this time around. White guilt has been replaced by buyer’s remorse.

MJBrutus on August 29, 2012 at 3:41 PM

They’re calling us racists regardless. They will continue to call us racists no matter what we do, or don’t do.

I agree this poll is garbage, just like the one that showed a double digit lead for obama amongst Iowa indies (strangely, the only indies in the nation not breaking for Romney).

But the pollsters don’t care that it’s not accurate. They aren’t trying to report news, they’re trying to fool people into thinking obama is again inevitable, so ya may just as well vote for him again. And sadly, it has a much bigger chance of working than it should.

runawayyyy on August 29, 2012 at 4:40 PM

I told you yesterday to post your email address and I will email you my elections prediction model. It is FREE… Anyone who wants it can do the same…

In fact if you do not want to post your email on this forum you can e-mail it to me at mnjg123@yahoo.com and I will email you back my elections predictions model. Anyone else who is interested can also email me.

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I am looking at Romney winning with 310 plus or minus 10 electoral votes. :) :) :)

What does yours look like?

My e-mail is guimbelleaux@yahoo.com

Theophile on August 29, 2012 at 4:50 PM

mnjg on August 29, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I’m just asking a simple question. What’s your track record, or how accurate is your poll?

You came on yesterday and berated AP for his interpretation of the polls, and you berated just about very pollster out there while touting your abilities. And when I asked for a link, you tell me to post my email so you can send me your Excel spreadsheet.

You can answer questions w/o having to send the sheet to me, can’t you? How do you collect your data? Do you use the built-in statistics programming in Excel or are you crunching numbers in some other program, like Statistix? In other words, what makes your method so much better than the others?

Simple questions.

AubieJon on August 29, 2012 at 4:59 PM

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