Q-poll shows McMahon up by 3 in CT

posted at 9:21 am on August 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Last week, Ramussen showed Republican nominee Linda McMahon with a 3-point edge over her Democratic opponent in the US Senate race in Connecticut, Rep. Chris Murphy, 49/46.  Six days later, Quinnipiac confirms that McMahon has a slight edge over Murphy — and in fact finds the exact same result:

Connecticut likely voters put Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon on the right side of a 49 – 46 percent too-close-to-call U.S. Senate race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. …

“The poll is good news for Linda McMahon. In our first likely voter poll in Connecticut, McMahon has a 3 point advantage in a too-close-to-call-race. Her edge is due to her double- digit lead among independent voters and being close among women, a group she struggled with in her 2010 run,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

McMahon’s draw comes from a surprisingly wide, if not deep, reach in the demos.  She has a twelve-point lead among men, while Murphy only gets a within-the-MoE edge of four points among women.  Murphy wins younger voters, but only by eight points, while McMahon wins the middle-age vote by twelve; the two split seniors evenly.  McMahon also does better on lower and higher income brackets.

That may not be the only surprise cooking in the Nutmeg State.  Barack Obama has a lead outside of the MoE, but not that far outside of it::

President Barack Obama holds a narrow 52 – 45 percent lead over Gov. Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, among Connecticut likely voters. Twelve percent of Obama voters and 12 percent of Romney backers say they might change their mind.

The gender gap is yawning with women backing Obama 59 – 38 percent while men back Romney 53 – 45 percent. Independent voters are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Obama leads among all income groups except for a 49 – 49 percent split among voters making more than $100,000 per year. Voters in all age groups back the president.

Just as a reminder, Obama won Connecticut in 2008 by 23 points, 61/38.  John Kerry won the state in 2004 by ten points, 54/44, over George W. Bush in a losing effort overall.  Al Gore won Connecticut by 17 in 2000, again while losing overall to Bush.

A seven-point lead for an incumbent Democratic President in this state is a show of weakness.  Combine that with a slight Republican lead in a US Senate race and it begins to look like Connecticut may be shifting out of the Safely Democratic column and edging toward swing-state status.


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Narrow pick up, but we can do this.

rob verdi on August 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Great freaking news. Hope she body slams this guy.

The Count on August 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Great freaking news. Hope she body slams this guy.

The Count on August 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM

It’s only been up a minute, but I’ve already been beaten to this joke :(

onetrickpony on August 28, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Great freaking news. Hope she body slams this guy.

The Count on August 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Pile driver.

eyedoc on August 28, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Ed, are you going to cover the new C-BS “News” poll? They have been flogging it on-air all morning. They now have O’bama up by only 1, and one wonders what their polling sample was.

Del Dolemonte on August 28, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I guess that poll last week wasn’t a fluke(no, not Sandra).

Doughboy on August 28, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Yes! I’m feeling hopeful for the races in Hawaii and West Virginia as well!

SouthernGent on August 28, 2012 at 9:28 AM

That may not be the only surprise cooking in the Nutmeg State. Barack Obama has a lead outside of the MoE, but not that far outside of it::

I think this is interesting interaction and I’m sure Ed has touched on it before. If a CT voter goes into the booth and is pretty excited about voting for Ms. McMahon, how often will they also think “Hmm, why split my ticket, let’s just change out the top guy too?” there has to be a few, IMO.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:29 AM

For the life of me I don’t see how you can read this about Conn. and then square obama’s “poll performance” nationally…something is not right.
My guess…the national polls are total hogwash!

winston on August 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Yay! My dumb state is finally doing something right!

pipandbaby on August 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM

SMACK DOWN!!

abobo on August 28, 2012 at 9:32 AM

So now it looks like we might win Connecticut but lose Missouri…

THAT I could not have predicted.

letoile du nord on August 28, 2012 at 9:33 AM

For the life of me I don’t see how you can read this about Conn. and then square obama’s “poll performance” nationally…something is not right.
My guess…the national polls are total hogwash!

winston on August 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM

It means dude is gonna lose in a landslide.

Doughboy on August 28, 2012 at 9:35 AM

and it begins to look like Connecticut may be shifting out of the Safely Democratic column and edging toward swing-state status.

Wow. whoda thunk it. CT ? a swing state?

**ring** Umm, Ed. Satan is on line one with a request for parkas and ice scrapers.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Fiscally conservative/socially moderate Linda McMahon is the new face of the GOP: Not crinkly old out of touch prudish Todd Akin.

Go Linda!

ericdondero on August 28, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I’M FOLLOWING THIS ONE CLOSELY…

very much wnated her to win in 2010, but the voters
chose an idiot who lied about serving our country.

This time MAY be different.

ToddPA on August 28, 2012 at 9:39 AM

I’ve got to hand it to this lady. She spent a LOT of her own $$ to lose to that Blumenthal snake last go round.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Beatdown!!!! Go McMahon!!!

Believe it or not CT is probably (outside of NH) the state in the Northeast that has the most Republican bent (if that even means anything).

While the pickup of a senate seat in CT will be sweet, Akin’s disaster in MO is really disheartening. what a disaster that is. Maybe the guy will wake up and smell the roses before Sept. 25.

Ugh…a girl can only hope…..

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Fiscally conservative/socially moderate Linda McMahon is the new face of the GOP: Not crinkly old out of touch prudish Todd Akin.

Go Linda!

ericdondero on August 28, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Pretty scary that the wife of Vince McMahon is more acceptable to the electorate(in a blue state, no less) than Achin’. That tells you how toxic that dude is.

Doughboy on August 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I could be wrong, but I don’t remember McMahon ever having the lead against Blumenthal in ’10, even after it was revealed his military service was more a product of his imagination and in a big Republican year. Could be he was more well-known and a better candidate than Murphy is, but still, this is very surprising. Be nice to pick this up since MO is probably lost.

changer1701 on August 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Fiscally conservative/socially moderate Linda McMahon is the new face of the GOP: Not crinkly old out of touch prudish Todd Akin.

Go Linda!

ericdondero on August 28, 2012 at 9:38 AM

In the Northeast yes. Akin is just a disaster.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 9:43 AM

While the pickup of a senate seat in CT will be sweet, Akin’s disaster in MO is really disheartening. what a disaster that is. Maybe the guy w ill wake up and smell the roses before Sept. 25.

Ugh…a girl can only hope…..

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 9:41 AM

that’s the interesting thing about politics. While you may have an upswell in a place like CT, there’s a heartache in a place like MO. It’s funny how things happen and go against the tide.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:44 AM

…hope the second time around is a charm!

KOOLAID2 on August 28, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I could be wrong, but I don’t remember McMahon ever having the lead against Blumenthal in ’10, even after it was revealed his military service was more a product of his imagination and in a big Republican year. Could be he was more well-known and a better candidate than Murphy is, but still, this is very surprising. Be nice to pick this up since MO is probably lost.

changer1701 on August 28, 2012 at 9:42 AM

i think that you’re right. Blumenthal’s lead was smallish and she pulled within the MOE (?) maybe. He was Attorney Admiral of CT, IIRC, so he was probably pretty well known, more so than some district congressman.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I’ve been saying all along that this election will be a blow out for the demcrats but it was always half hope.

This would be a huge win for the republicans and put the democrats further out in the wilderness than I even dreamed.

Lonetown on August 28, 2012 at 9:47 AM

2 polls with LV. Go Linda, smack down Harry Reid

Quinnipiac 1472 LV Murphy 46 McMahon 49 McMahon +3

Rasmussen Reports 500 LV Murphy 46 McMahon 49 McMahon +3

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 9:47 AM

that’s the interesting thing about politics. While you may have an upswell in a place like CT, there’s a heartache in a place like MO. It’s funny how things happen and go against the tide.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Sad really. Akin could have went to sleep until November and won in a walk. Unbelievable.

Also worried about that douche Allan Grayson making a comeback in FL.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 9:49 AM

i think that you’re right. Blumenthal’s lead was smallish and she pulled within the MOE (?) maybe. He was Attorney Admiral of CT, IIRC, so he was probably pretty well known, more so than some district congressman.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:46 AM

That’s what I remember, too. She got close when that scandal broke, but I don’t remember her ever pulling ahead. Amazing that she’d be up this time with Obama also on the ballot.

changer1701 on August 28, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Sad really. Akin could have went to sleep until November and won in a walk. Unbelievable.

Also worried about that douche Allan Grayson making a comeback in FL.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Sadly, Achin could still win if it turns out Obama is more unpopular than even we anticipate. I think he’s too damaged at this point, but you never know.

Doughboy on August 28, 2012 at 9:52 AM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ct/connecticut_senate_mcmahon_vs_blumenthal-1145.html

Blumey had quite a sizeable lead of +8.7 going into election day 2010.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Even in my pathetic state the voters are seeing that Murphy is the quintessential “empty suit”. He has done NOTHING for the state but feels he can just “move along” ’cause there’s a D next to his name.

Maybe a glimmer of hope after all – this state is almost a lost cause.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on August 28, 2012 at 9:54 AM

This is great news, and shows that the Rasmussen poll was not a fluke. Quinnipiac is usually a left-leaning pollster, but since it is based in Connecticut, Q-polls in this state should be fairly accurate.

I had been disappointed in McMahon in 2010, when she lost by 10 points to Tricky Dick Blumenarsethal, but he was probably a much stronger opponent (state Attorney General for 20 years) than Rep. Chris Murphy, who has represented the swing district CT-5 (rural and suburban northwestern CT) formerly represented by Republican Nancy Johnson.

Even though Romney is running behind Obama, McMahon is probably helped by Romney’s presence at the top of the ticket, as a fellow business leader. She may also be helped by the failures of CT Gov. Dannel P. Malloy (D), who narrowly won the Governor’s race in 2010 over businessman Tom Foley, then has presided over sharply increasing state taxes and unemployment while doling out favors for union cronies. Prior to 2010, CT had Republican Governors John Rowland and Jodi Rell, who had kept state spending and taxes in check by vetoing budgets passed by the Democrat-controlled (but not veto-proof) State legislature.

McMahon can win this if she can maintain a large lead among independent voters, who are 45% of the registered voters in CT (as compared to 33% Democrats and 22% Republicans).

Steve Z on August 28, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I kinda wish EVERY state was a swing state…as in, ppl looked at both candidates EVERY TIME…not in my lifetime though. Happy Convention Day everyone!

airmonkey on August 28, 2012 at 9:59 AM

In the Northeast yes. Akin is just a disaster.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Agree…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:00 AM

2 polls with LV. Go Linda, smack down Harry Reid

Quinnipiac 1472 LV Murphy 46 McMahon 49 McMahon +3

Rasmussen Reports 500 LV Murphy 46 McMahon 49 McMahon +3

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Yeah… I wasn’t too sure about the Rassmussen poll, but now I’m paying attention.

Abby Adams on August 28, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Even though Romney is running behind Obama, McMahon is probably helped by Romney’s presence at the top of the ticket, as a fellow business leader.
Steve Z on August 28, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I agree. And Romney is probably helped by McMahon running on the ticket. That’s the interesting interaction between candidates is that they can synergize the ticket, or one can draw down the ticket. I think CT may be fun to watch what happens.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Let me be the Eeyore here. As you may well know, voter fraud is not limited to a handful of illegals or ragtag college students. The primary impact comes from ballot stuffing, i.e. placing the votes for people who failed to show up on the election day. One who believes that it won’t happen en masse in the state that was Donks’ playground for decades untold should check one’s water supply for hallucinogens. Mrs. Linda McMahon doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in Hell unless she opens a double-digit gap.

Archivarix on August 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

steebo77′s Daily Swing State Report - August 28, 2012

State / Rolling Average / Latest Poll / Electoral Votes
Indiana / Romney +15.7% / Jul 31 / 11
Montana / Romney +14.8% / Aug 20 / 3
Georgia / Romney +11.4% / May 22 / 16
Arizona / Romney +9.8% / Jul 24 / 11
Missouri / Romney +5.5% / Aug 22 / 10
North Carolina / Romney +1.6% / Aug 24 / 15
National (tracking only) / Romney +0.8% / Aug 26 / NA
National (w/ tracking) / Romney +0.3% / Aug 26 / NA
Iowa / Romney +0.0% / Aug 8 / 6
Florida / Romney -0.8% / Aug 24 / 29
Virginia / Romney -1.3% / Aug 23 / 13
National (w/o tracking) / Romney -1.4% / Aug 26 / NA
Ohio / Romney -2.0% / Aug 21 / 18
Michigan / Romney -2.2% / Aug 23 / 16
Colorado / Romney -2.2% / Aug 21 / 9
Nevada / Romney -2.7% / Aug 18 / 6
Wisconsin / Romney -2.7% / Aug 18 / 10
New Hampshire / Romney -2.8% / Aug 10 / 4
Pennsylvania / Romney -7.0% / Aug 22 / 20
Oregon / Romney -7.3% / Jun 22 / 7
Connecticut / Romney -7.6% / Aug 24 / 7
Minnesota / Romney -7.9% / Jul 18 / 10
New Jersey / Romney -11.1% / Jul 26 / 14
New Mexico / Romney -12.1% / Aug 21 / 5
Maine / Romney -12.9% / Jun 22 / 4
Washington / Romney -13.6% / Aug 1 / 12

steebo77 on August 28, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Perhaps this go around the GOP establishment, particularly the NRSC, can throw their support behind her.

William Teach on August 28, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Perhaps this go around the GOP establishment, particularly the NRSC, can throw their support behind her.

William Teach on August 28, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Send her the funds they would have sent to Akin.

MeatHeadinCA on August 28, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Yes! I’m feeling hopeful for the races in Hawaii and West Virginia as well!

SouthernGent on August 28, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Why? No reason for that in West Virginia. Very long shot in Hawai.

Perhaps this go around the GOP establishment, particularly the NRSC, can throw their support behind her.

William Teach on August 28, 2012 at 10:14 AM

What? How come they didn’t support her? They even recruited her to run again this year. They won’t spend money on this race, obviously – but that’s one of the benefits of running a self-funder. It’s not like she’s asking them for money or anything else.

joana on August 28, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Perhaps this go around the GOP establishment, particularly the NRSC, can throw their support behind her.

Listen to joana, for on this as with much else around here she is wise. Here’s the truth, from somebody with a bit of time and experience in CT politics and ears on the ground: McMahon DOES NOT WANT “GOP establishment” support, except on the most tacit ‘get out of the way’ level, just as Scott Brown or Charlie Bass don’t want it. This is New England — the GOP brand is slightly less popular than the New York Yankees brand in MA, and the electability of people like McMahon and Brown is premised on their positioning as independent of the establishment.

Furthermore, here in a nutshell is why McMahon is currently leading and Romney is competitive in CT: it breaks down into a regional thing. Western CT, largely composed of high-income bedroom communities for the NYC investor class, used to be traditionally moderate GOP (Chris Shays’ and Nancy Johnson’s old districts) but has gone over to the Dems as the national party became more Southern, evangelical, and socially conservative. These people have REALLY soured on Obama’s ‘soak the rich’ and ‘blame Wall Street’ rhetoric, they loathe Dodd-Frank, but normally they would still hold their noses and vote Dem because the GOP is now too perceived as too extreme and Southern for them.

However, the Romney/Ryan/McMahon ticket is uniquely positioned to appeal to these people. Romney is essentially the guy they all aspire to me (world’s greatest investor), Ryan is the guy they all want to hire and/or work with (super-smart likable alpha-male numbers wonk), and McMahon is the sort of woman who reminds them of their best and most impressive clients (super-successful, poised, no-nonsense businesswoman). The synergy between the national ticket and McMahon’s profile accounts for pretty much ALL of the closeness in the Presidental numbers in CT.

Further east, the Romney/Ryan appeal has less appeal in the more middle-class/blue collar, trad-New England Eastern CT areas — this again is why Romney still trails by 7% or so and won’t actually win the state. But McMahon is still winning because 1.) Chris Murphy’s base is in northwestern CT, overlapping the same region that has turned against Obama (as noted above) for other reasons; 2.) the most interesting thing I’ve found is that in eastern CT lots of people don’t know Murphy and when they do, they literally don’t like his jerk face, Big Lebowski-style. All you need to do is watch his TV ads in conjunction with McMahon’s. She hits crisp, brutal, hard; he comes off as a simpering prat. It’s a weird sort of reverse Scott Brown-effect: he has negative charisma with a lot of blue-collar voters in the eastern half of the state.

Make no mistake: this race will be razor-close no matter what. But McMahon has a real chance of winning because of the structural factors in the race plus her ultra-professional operation. Her run in 2010 also turns out to have helped immensely: she made remarkably few mistakes in that campaign (to pretty much everybody’s surprise in the professional political class) but she’s learned from the few that she did (namely not suffocating the state with ads), and her worst issues — WWE scandal stuff — has already been well-aired at this point.

Esoteric on August 28, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Wow. This has to worry the DNC more than anything. They cannot lose CT, and if Linda is doing that well against Murphy, maybe Romney has a shot there.

Either way, with Akin the fool refusing to get out of the race, this can be the seat that gets Republicans to 51.

milcus on August 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

She comin’ for you, bruther! *bicep flex*

Jim-Rose on August 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

The gender gap is yawning with women backing Obama 59 – 38 percent

I thought women were smarter than this. How disappointing.

Wolfmoon on August 28, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Did you guys know – she is campaigning against “Ryan Budget”. She is not coming to Tampa as she wants to maintain her distance.

Unbelievable…

vpaddy123 on August 28, 2012 at 12:44 PM

On national voting maps I keep seeing TX portrayed as pink. Trust me on this, Texas ain’t ‘pink’-it’s DEEP red!

annoyinglittletwerp on August 28, 2012 at 12:44 PM