Change: Obama’s lead down to two points in Iowa

posted at 4:06 pm on August 28, 2012 by Allahpundit

Three months ago his lead there was 10, but that was probably due to some anti-Romney Republicans still harboring hard feelings from the primary. Three months later, those are all gone. And so, for the most part, is Obama’s lead.

Only six electoral votes at stake here, but if you think this election could break 270/268, then obviously the Iowa polls bear watching closely:

Iowa makes yet another swing state where voters don’t really care for either Obama or Romney. Obama’s approval numbers are particularly poor with only 45% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. The fact that he has a small lead in the state despite his under water approval speaks to at least some voters regarding this election as a choice rather than a referendum. Voters aren’t big on Romney either with 47% rating him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion…

It’s hard to quantify but the Paul Ryan pick could be helping Romney at least a little bit in Iowa. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. Those aren’t earth shattering numbers, but they’re at least better than Obama and Romney’s. Iowa makes another swing state where voters express a positive view of Ryan while also being opposed to the Ryan Plan by a 46/37 margin. People like the man, but not necessarily his policies.

How is Obama translating a job approval of -5 into a two-point lead? Two ways. First, O more than makes up for Romney’s advantage among men by winning women:

PPP’s model assumes that turnout on election day will be 48 percent men and 52 percent women, which is actually optimistic for Romney given that the gender split in Iowa exit polls was 47M/53F in 2008 and 46M/54F in 2004. If turnout this year tilts more heavily towards women, Mitt’s in deep trouble there. This is ominous too:

The reason Romney’s within two overall despite that heavy disadvantage among independents is because PPP’s sample is R+3. That’s not unheard of for Iowa — it was R+2 in the 2004 exit poll and D+1 in 2008 — but if he’s trailing that much with indies, there’s really no margin for error in this state. GOP turnout will need to be massive to compensate for it.

As for why you should care about all this, here’s TNR’s center-left election guru William Galston crunching the numbers:

But for simplicity’s sake, assume that each candidate does what he must, with Romney taking Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio while Obama turns back the Republican assault in the upper Midwest. If so, Obama would have 247 electoral votes; Romney, 253. And five states would be left to decide the contest: Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6). Obama won all five in 2008, four by margins exceeding his national margin, the fifth (Virginia) with slightly less.

If Romney steals Virginia, then O needs the other four remaining toss-up states. Lose any one of them and he’s finished. Oh, and before I forget? His job approval nationally in today’s Gallup tracker is a robust 43/48.

Exit question: Obama’s decided to break with precedent and campaign this week instead of taking a few days off while the other party holds its convention. Can you guess which state he’s campaigning in today? I think you can.

Update: Via the Examiner, here’s what the orator of our age came up with for the crowd in Iowa.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Bad news for Downgrade’s media minions.

Chip on August 28, 2012 at 4:10 PM

His job approval nationally in today’s Gallup tracker is a robust 43/48.

and by robust you mean, in the toilet.

/definitions.

thread music.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 4:12 PM

“Oh you’re in I-O-Way!”

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Barry’s lead there has to be quite tenuous. He would not be spending that much time there otherwise. A 3 days bus tour 2 weeks ago and back there again today.

If he has to fight this hard for a small state which had been chalk up in his column pretty much all along, how confident is he about his overall “lead”?

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 4:12 PM

steebo77′s Daily Swing State Report - August 28, 2012

State / Rolling Average / Latest Poll / Electoral Votes
Indiana / Romney +15.7% / Jul 31 / 11
Montana / Romney +14.8% / Aug 20 / 3
Georgia / Romney +11.4% / May 22 / 16
Arizona / Romney +9.8% / Jul 24 / 11
Missouri / Romney +5.5% / Aug 22 / 10
North Carolina / Romney +1.6% / Aug 24 / 15
National (tracking only) / Romney +0.8% / Aug 26 / NA
National (w/ tracking) / Romney +0.3% / Aug 26 / NA
Florida / Romney -0.8% / Aug 24 / 29
Iowa / Romney -1.2% / Aug 24 / 6
Virginia / Romney -1.3% / Aug 23 / 13
National (w/o tracking) / Romney -1.4% / Aug 26 / NA
Ohio / Romney -2.0% / Aug 21 / 18
Michigan / Romney -2.2% / Aug 23 / 16
Colorado / Romney -2.2% / Aug 21 / 9
Nevada / Romney -2.7% / Aug 18 / 6
Wisconsin / Romney -2.7% / Aug 18 / 10
New Hampshire / Romney -2.8% / Aug 10 / 4
Pennsylvania / Romney -7.0% / Aug 22 / 20
Oregon / Romney -7.3% / Jun 22 / 7
Connecticut / Romney -7.6% / Aug 24 / 7
Minnesota / Romney -7.9% / Jul 18 / 10
New Jersey / Romney -11.1% / Jul 26 / 14
New Mexico / Romney -12.1% / Aug 21 / 5
Maine / Romney -12.9% / Jun 22 / 4
Washington / Romney -13.6% / Aug 1 / 12

steebo77 on August 28, 2012 at 4:12 PM

How is Romney’s gap with indies so stark here when he leads Obama among those voters elsewhere?

changer1701 on August 28, 2012 at 4:13 PM

College students, another investment with diminishing returns for team Obama.

rob verdi on August 28, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Any slight advantage Romney has in any state isn’t enough to overcome last minute vote finding by SEUI.

Western_Civ on August 28, 2012 at 4:13 PM

So he is in IWOA today huh :P

burrata on August 28, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Being his classless self natch

cmsinaz on August 28, 2012 at 4:15 PM

So Romney is still down there and having uncharacteristically bad numbers with Independents. This news is mixed at… wait:

PPP’s model

Oh, nevermind. Romney is in great shape. PPP’s latest thing has been to play games with who they call “Independent.” It’s how they kee themselves looking decent on the surface when people call out the D+9 polls from elsewhere. I haven’t seen this sort of deficit with Indies anywhere else; I don’t know why the Iowa state line would change anything. Romney is up at least 3 overall most likely. R numbers in Iowa have been skyrocketing while Dems have been tanking. If the state was only D+1 in 2008, then R+3 is actually a safe estimate.

I really have trouble seeing Obama hanging on to Iwoa, even if he squeaks something out nationally.

Gingotts on August 28, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Iowa is now the closest swing state in the RCP average. Obama +0.2.

Jon0815 on August 28, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Sorry, but as much of a monumental disaster this guy is,
I can no longer take a poll from ANY state showing him
leading seriously.

ToddPA on August 28, 2012 at 4:16 PM

I’m from Oiwa, I can’t foresee him doing well there this year. Oiwans are a gracious and kind bunch, until they’ve been sheistered, then they’ll cut your sack.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Can you guess which state he’s campaigning in today? I think you can.

Louisiana?

Doesn’t Obama have to stop the seas from rising while those eeeeevil racist Republicans are partying in Tampa and ignoring the poor drowning in the Big Easy?

Steve Z on August 28, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Any more screw ups at the RNC this week like the rules fight and Christie’s remark on the birther joke and Romney can kiss his chances goodbye.

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Lets hope that IOWA does the right thing in NO-vember… It will look GOOD in the ROMNEY column…

Khun Joe on August 28, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Romney-dosen’t-care?

Who wrote that crap?

joekenha on August 28, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Hey, IA, do you know what “socialism” means? How about “bankruptcy”? “California”? “Europe”?

RobertMN on August 28, 2012 at 4:19 PM

I tried, but I could stand only 37 seconds of this crap.
We need to send him down in flames in November.

GaltBlvnAtty on August 28, 2012 at 4:19 PM

One or more of the Supreme Court “Justices” who inflicted Gay Marriage on Iowa will be up for confirmation in November. In 2010, the ones up for confirmation lost by about 10% each.

People who go to the polls to kick out a “Judge” who rewrote the state Constitution to include SSM, aren’t going to turn around and vote for a President who wants to appoint SC Justices who will vote to impose SSM on the whole country.

Obama will lose Iowa.

Greg Q on August 28, 2012 at 4:21 PM

I don’t know why Iowa is so stuck on stupid. Is it the ethanol? I bet that explains it. No other way to explain Obama winning Iowa.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Any more screw ups at the RNC this week like the rules fight and Christie’s remark on the birther joke and Romney can kiss his chances goodbye.

Sure, Lefty, because those are WAY more important to Americans than the debt and the economy. Looking for a little hope?

RobertMN on August 28, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Can you guess which state he’s campaigning in today? I think you can.

Zaporovniok?
Oobleboobolo?
North Gerbny?

I’m not sure why but I’m assuming that its one of Barry’s extra seven….

Gingotts on August 28, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Obama will lose Iowa.

Greg Q on August 28, 2012 at 4:21 PM

good point, I spoke to my dad about that. Both my parents and a few bros and sis’s live there still and people were hot about that issue.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 4:23 PM

But in the end I still place Iowa as more likely to stay for Obama.

I think Michigan and WI have a better chance of turning RED than Ethanowa.

Raquel Pinkbullet on August 28, 2012 at 4:24 PM

******************* RED ALERT **********************

Michelle Malkin ‏@michellemalkin

MT ‏@KatrinaPierson Here we go #rnc2012 #gop2012. “Delegates take your seats”

https://twitter.com/michellemalkin

canopfor on August 28, 2012 at 4:24 PM

My 270toWin Map.

Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

GaltBlvnAtty on August 28, 2012 at 4:19 PM

I WILL not listen or watch(if possible) this horrible evil anti-American!
Yes, ‘send him down in flames in November’! Our home will not stay home and we will vote R&R, right or wrong!
L

letget on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Sure, Lefty, because those are WAY more important to Americans than the debt and the economy. Looking for a little hope?

RobertMN on August 28, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Does stupid just come naturally to you or do you have to work at it?

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

My 270toWin Map.

Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

I approve.

Chuck Schick on August 28, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Øbama ahead by 13 among independents? I don’t think so.

petefrt on August 28, 2012 at 4:28 PM

***ALERT ******************

@FixAaron tweeted:
FixAaron
Boehner says the ayes have it and the rules have passed. Loud booing consumes the arena. #GOP12

1 min ago from twitter.com by editor

@ZekeJMiller tweeted: Tweet location: Tampa, FL
ZekeJMiller
Paul supporters have now interrupted the convention

8 mins ago from twitter.com by editor

canopfor on August 28, 2012 at 4:29 PM

My 270toWin Map.

Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Very close to my map. Only difference is I give Mitt MI and Obama MN.

Mark1971 on August 28, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Come on, fellow Hawkeyes-Get it done!!

annoyinglittletwerp on August 28, 2012 at 4:33 PM

Paul fans as expected

cmsinaz on August 28, 2012 at 4:34 PM

***ALERT *****

Michelle Malkin ‏@michellemalkin

Thanks to Boehner’s deaf ears, minority reports squashed. Floor fight squashed. Mission accomplished, party bosses.

canopfor on August 28, 2012 at 4:34 PM

My 270toWin Map. Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Red Colorado and New Hampshire but blue Michigan? I’ll take that, as well as any other board that has the count at 270+, but you’re – how to put it mildly – somewhat mistaken.

Archivarix on August 28, 2012 at 4:36 PM

cmsinaz on August 28, 2012 at 4:34 PM

ARE these people who are plowing up all these snakes at the convention? Me thinks something is afoot for all this drama?
L

letget on August 28, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Even though I lived there for a few years and it’s a fine place, this rant is all that comes to mind when I think about Iowa and politics.

Dead Hand Control on August 28, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Michelle Malkin ‏@michellemalkin

Boehner declares motion adopted on rules. Boos mix with “USA” chants. #RNCpowergrab

Michelle Malkin ‏@michellemalkin

Boehner looking nervous behind Sununu. Ayes and Nos sound equal in volume. #RNCpowergrab

https://twitter.com/michellemalkin

GOP Power Grab
https://twitter.com/#!/search/?q=%23RNCpowergrab&src=hash

canopfor on August 28, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Anything is possible letget

cmsinaz on August 28, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Paul fans as expected

cmsinaz on August 28, 2012 at 4:34 PM

If the Ronulans insist on behaving like ‘Occupiers’-Prebius needs to toss their basses out!

annoyinglittletwerp on August 28, 2012 at 4:39 PM

My 270toWin Map.

Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Very close to my map. Only difference is I give Mitt MI and Obama MN.

Mark1971 on August 28, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Yeah, MI will go red before MN. My own prediction is close to this. I don’t have CO in the red.

Bitter Clinger on August 28, 2012 at 4:40 PM

The numbers aren’t strong but the trend still is. They are moving slowing but surely in R2/012s direction.

hawkdriver on August 28, 2012 at 4:41 PM

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 4:17 PM

I’m from Illannoy

PatriotRider on August 28, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Archivarix on August 28, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Ok, and just to make it interesting, I’ve moved Minnesota to Blue. That still gives Romney 298.

Anyone got anymore corrections?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:42 PM

I’m from Illannoy

PatriotRider on August 28, 2012 at 4:42 PM

I was from Illannoyz. Where abouts?

annoyinglittletwerp on August 28, 2012 at 4:43 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on August 28, 2012 at 4:43 PM

NW Burbs

PatriotRider on August 28, 2012 at 4:46 PM


My 270toWin Map.

Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

I agree but also give Mitt Michigan and the one district in Maine

Natebo on August 28, 2012 at 4:46 PM

the kids call Illinois “Ill-annoying” as we have had to drive several times from Paducah, KY to the Quad cities along the length of IL, making our road trip about 60% through the lovely flat countryside of Illinois. It is second only to nebraska and iowa in its ‘visual appeal’ if you will.

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 4:47 PM

I’m sick of the paulnauts. You never had a chance so get over it…

sandee on August 28, 2012 at 4:48 PM

BigGator5

Heartily agree but I believe NV goes to Mitt as does Michigan and PA. Yes, PA. The philly collar burbs voted heavily for ObeyME in 08. not happening again. Often said that PA is philly and pitt surrounded by alabama. dems are going to have to man hundreds of voting booths with black panthers to have any chance of stopping this red wave.

phillysfinest on August 28, 2012 at 4:48 PM

***ALERT ******************

@FixAaron tweeted:
FixAaron
Boehner says the ayes have it and the rules have passed. Loud booing consumes the arena. #GOP12

1 min ago from twitter.com by editor

@ZekeJMiller tweeted: Tweet location: Tampa, FL
ZekeJMiller
Paul supporters have now interrupted the convention

8 mins ago from twitter.com by editor

canopfor on August 28, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Barry will probably get a bounce from the GOP convention with all the pissed off grassroots out there.

Punchenko on August 28, 2012 at 4:48 PM

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Yeah – I couldn’t take the Minnesota red forecast. I think Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia are the swings. If Romney can get Virgina that may be enough.

Zomcon JEM on August 28, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Philly – GOP activist groups are pulling advertising there – I don’t think you can beat Philly. I would say if Mitt cannot move the polls to within 5 in the next three weeks, pull it all.

Zomcon JEM on August 28, 2012 at 4:53 PM

AP, stop analyzing polls because you are embarrassing yourself… You have no clue about simple statistics or basic arithmetic… and the same goes for those who you consider “experts” in polling analysis… Iowa is going for Romney… My predictions model is vastly more accurate than any of the crap polls that are being published and for certain vastly more accurate than the so called polling expert who lack comprehension of basic statistics and arithmetic…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 4:54 PM

PatriotRider on August 28, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Far South burbs-now in west Texas.

annoyinglittletwerp on August 28, 2012 at 4:56 PM

INteresting snapshot. Momentum is tending towards a continued trend in favor of Romney.

jake49 on August 28, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Barry will probably get a bounce from the GOP convention with all the pissed off grassroots out there.

Punchenko on August 28, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Butthurt Paulbots.

wargamer6 on August 28, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Any more screw ups at the RNC this week like the rules fight and Christie’s remark on the birther joke and Romney can kiss his chances goodbye.

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 4:18 PM

That is your problems political junkies, you make so many insignificant stuff so important when in reality it matters very litte to the vast majority of voters…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 4:58 PM

“Update: Via the Examiner, here’s what the orator of our age came up with for the crowd in Iowa.”

Pantload is sounding desperate these days…

Seven Percent Solution on August 28, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Philly – GOP activist groups are pulling advertising there – I don’t think you can beat Philly. I would say if Mitt cannot move the polls to within 5 in the next three weeks, pull it all.

Zomcon JEM on August 28, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Pennsylvania is very hard to win for Romney… Per my Elections Prediction model 3% of Obama 2008 voters need to stay home PLUS 19% of Obama “White Voters” in 2008 to switch and vote for Romney in 2012 in order for Romney to win Pennsylvania… The first part is easy but getting 19% of Obama White voters from 2008 in Pennsylvania is very hard…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 5:01 PM

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Can you post a link to this modern marvel of polling, or have you been unable to scan the wrinkled napkin you wrote it on?

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Iowa is going for Romney…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I find it hard to believe that a state which sent Tom Harkin to the US Senate 5 times will go for anyone other than Barack Obama.

MessesWithTexas on August 28, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I give MN, MI and PA to Obama and I still don’t see how he wins.
Even if Obama gets CO or VA he still doesnt get 270.

B Man on August 28, 2012 at 5:05 PM

How is Romney’s gap with indies so stark here when he leads Obama among those voters elsewhere?

changer1701 on August 28, 2012 at 4:13 PM

As Gingotts pointed out, PPP’s “Independents” seem to lean much farther left than most other polling forms.

strictnein on August 28, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Fricking zoo in Ames for his “splash and go” campaign event. Kool-aid guzzled by the hundreds.

cyclown on August 28, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Can you post a link to this modern marvel of polling, or have you been unable to scan the wrinkled napkin you wrote it on?

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 5:02 PM

It is an Excel file. I can e-mail it to you if you give me your e-mail address…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 5:06 PM

So he is in IWOA today huh :P

burrata on August 28, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Well played!!

jukin3 on August 28, 2012 at 5:07 PM

OT, Federal judge throws out Texas redistricting map..

sandee on August 28, 2012 at 5:09 PM

It’s Mitt’s to win or lose it, if the undecided aren’t already in the Obama camp, then there must be a good reason.

DDay on August 28, 2012 at 5:10 PM

I find it hard to believe that a state which sent Tom Harkin to the US Senate 5 times will go for anyone other than Barack Obama.

MessesWithTexas on August 28, 2012 at 5:03 PM

If you do a simple search you will find out that Bush won this state in 2004…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 5:10 PM

It is an Excel file. I can e-mail it to you if you give me your e-mail address…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 5:06 PM

For a whistle-britches such as yourself, with all of your bluster and self congratulation, the best you can muster is an Excel file? Um-kay.

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 5:11 PM

forms firms.

strictnein on August 28, 2012 at 5:05 PM

strictnein on August 28, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Barry will probably get a bounce from the GOP convention with all the pissed off grassroots out there.

Punchenko on August 28, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Butthurt Paulbots.

wargamer6 on August 28, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Here is the Queen of All Paulbots complaining about what happened today: http://twitter.com/michellemalkin

Punchenko on August 28, 2012 at 5:17 PM

What’s next? President Obama spends an entire week campaigning in Hawaii?

Varchild on August 28, 2012 at 5:20 PM

“Oh you’re in I-O-Way!”

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 4:12 PM

…yep Ioaw!

KOOLAID2 on August 28, 2012 at 5:22 PM

HOw could ANYONE in the Heartland vote for this guy???

I’m so frustrated that people aren’t paying attention!!

KMC1 on August 28, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Any more screw ups at the RNC this week like the rules fight and Christie’s remark on the birther joke and Romney can kiss his chances goodbye.

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 4:18 PM

That is your problems political junkies, you make so many insignificant stuff so important when in reality it matters very litte to the vast majority of voters…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Please, don’t let our concern for the ideological direction of the GOP distract you from your X-Box and Doritos eating time. Since you don’t care about this “insignificant stuff”, I suppose you don’t care if, when voting, you have a choice between Bigger Government Democrats and Big Government Republicans.

Some of us do care.

Punchenko on August 28, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Barry will probably get a bounce from the GOP convention with all the pissed off grassroots out there.

Punchenko on August 28, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Here’s a hint: nobody other than people who want to be RNC Delegates gives s sh!t.

You want to be a “candidate’s delegate”? Great. Convince that candidate that he or she wants you. Can’t do that?

Then you shouldn’t be on the ballot as a delegate for hte candidate who doesn’t want you.

Greg Q on August 28, 2012 at 5:30 PM

After seeing this poll, I think the take away is there are an awful lot of disobedient wives out there. Are Iowan men wusses?

paulsur on August 28, 2012 at 5:31 PM

These people obviously haven’t seen the Mr.Scam Man video.

bloggless on August 28, 2012 at 5:33 PM

sandee on August 28, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Do you have a link?
L

letget on August 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM

sandee on August 28, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I just found it on the Fox site. Oh brother!
L

letget on August 28, 2012 at 5:44 PM

Alternative headline:

Second Look at The 19th Amendment?

SWLiP on August 28, 2012 at 6:24 PM

For a whistle-britches such as yourself, with all of your bluster and self congratulation, the best you can muster is an Excel file? Um-kay.

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Let me guess you are some liberal arts graduate with an IQ below 100… Yes the prediction program is written in an Excel file… Your little brain cannot even handle this…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Something else “funny” about the PPP poll. The question about who people voted for in 2008 is O+5 in the poll. Obama took Iowa by 10 points in 2008.

So either we are seeing a “Jimmy Carter” effect where people are refusing to admit they voted for Obama or PPP way undersampled Obama voters.

crosspatch on August 28, 2012 at 7:01 PM

AubieJon – low blow. Seems like mnjg was more than willing to let you view his model – snark in reply – real nice.

Zomcon JEM on August 28, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Let me guess you are some liberal arts graduate with an IQ below 100… Yes the prediction program is written in an Excel file… Your little brain cannot even handle this…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 6:44 PM

What I see is a blowhard who comes on a forum, browbeats and bashes the host (AP), gushes over himself and his polling and prognostication talents, and all he can provide is an Excel spreadsheet. It’s not worth a blog, or a website; it’s just an Excel file.

How many elections have you predicted using this model? How do you back up your claimed accuracy?

You’re a riot, dumba$$.

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 8:31 PM

AubieJon – low blow. Seems like mnjg was more than willing to let you view his model – snark in reply – real nice.

Zomcon JEM on August 28, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Bite me, moron.

AubieJon on August 28, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I think we are seeing what will amount to the most variance with the polling to the result ever. Polls missed Truman’s win and supposed Reagan was within the margin against Carter, and overestimated Clinton’s win over Dole significantly, but this is going to be dramatic and will no doubt fuel the lefty conspiracy nuts who “believed the exit polls” in 2004.

The growth of the Tea Party movement and increasing mistrust of media generally have made conservatives even more likely to refuse to answer survey questions, which contributes to the oversampling of Democrats. Additionally, the mindlessly ferocious devotion to Dear Leader among the most partisan Democrats may tend to make Democrats who intend to vote against Obama reluctant even to say so over the phone – if their child overheard, she might denounce them to the Party Commissar.

So it’s going to be a real shocker to some on November 6.

Adjoran on August 29, 2012 at 12:28 AM

My 270toWin Map.

Thoughts?

BigGator5 on August 28, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Romney is going to win Nevada. He’s way up in Washoe County (11%) and the past two elections and in the 2010 Senate race, whoever won Washoe won the election. The campaign is really fired up and optimistic here. Plus don’t forget the Mormon factor in Nevada.

I think Romney has a better chance of winning MI, than MN. Romney is definitely going for MI. I do believe he will also make a play for MN now that he’s won the nomination and can administer a can of whoop ass on Obama.

So at this point, no MN, but add MI and NV.

FredrickB on August 29, 2012 at 4:13 AM

I may be mocked for saying this, but I’m holding out hope that my home state of MN will go red after 40 years of blue wilderness. Just spent a few weeks there this summer with family and friends/spouses from all over the state and only ONE was voting for Obama…the school teacher, disappointingly, although expected, as there was no reason except “…as a teacher, I have to vote Democrat” given.

All–and I mean ALL—of my Duluth friends are not just GOP now, but strong GOP. Quite shocking, considering how tree-huggy Duluth is and DFL growing up.

Minnesotans put in a GOP legislature in ’10 even with electing that idiot Dayton as Gov. Having a neighboring cheesehead on the ticket in Paul Ryan may just be enough…plus extra motivation on the 2 ballot measures on SSM amendment and Voter-ID since the moronic Sec of State Ritchie got a smackdown from the MN supremes.

Saw my old district-08 go for Cravaak over entrenched Oberstar in ’10. Shock of shocks.

I know, I know… Minnesota. Our state bird is the loon. Too many vote like loons but feel like a betting girl this election cycle.

Renwaa on August 29, 2012 at 5:37 AM

Aubie – one needs something to bite. Quit being a jerk.

Zomcon JEM on August 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Aubie – one needs something to bite. Quit being a jerk.

Zomcon JEM on August 29, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Hm. It took you 14 hours to come up with that. Are you at recess now, or are you supposed to be taking your nap. You’ll get demerits if you get caught.

I was responding to a blowhard who was touting his super-duper prowess in polling. When I asked for a link, he requested my email so he could send me his Excel spreadsheet. I called him out for being a poseur.

Mind your own business from now on.

AubieJon on August 29, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Quote from the news release: “Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,244 likely Iowa voters from August 23-26…”

That’s a big sample. PPP is a Democrat polling organization, but that’s still a big sample. I thought Iowa had a stronger anti-Obama predilection. I still feel fairly confident that Romney will win in Iowa.

J Baustian on August 29, 2012 at 12:51 PM