CBS poll: Obama only up 1, 46/45, among registered voters

posted at 10:41 am on August 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

CBS goes it alone with its new poll, dropping its usual partner, the New York Times — and gets a cleaner look at the election as a result.  The poll shows a virtual dead heat, with the incumbent President up only one point over his challenger, 46/45.  CBS still manages to bury the lede, though:

A new CBS News poll out Tuesday shows that half of registered voters think that Mitt Romney does not understand their problems, reflecting an empathy gap with President Obama as Romney prepares for his acceptance speech at the Republican nominating convention.

Only 41 percent of Americans said Romney understands their needs and problems, compared to 54 percent who feel Mr. Obama understands their needs and problems.

And yet Obama only gets 46% of the leaned vote, and Romney exceeds the 41% on that question as well.  Hmmm; perhaps voters are looking for other qualities than empathy, like, say, competence?  Oddly, the CBS poll didn’t ask a single question on issues.

The sample here looks pretty solid, at least in terms of the relationship between Democrats and Republicans.  The unweighted sample D/R/I is 33/31/37; after weighting, it’s 31/29/34.  I’d say the unweighted model looks better, but only because the weighted model undersamples everyone.  A D+2 is a very defensible turnout model prediction for this election, although still remember that this is a registered voter survey and not a likely voter survey.  A single-point lead for Obama among registered voters, and especially only a 46% level of support, is a big red flag for any Democratic incumbent’s hopes for re-election.

The internals are relatively close, but not particularly favorable for Obama, either.  Despite spending the summer attempting to demonize Romney, both men have nearly identical favorability gaps, -5 for Romney and -3 for Obama — and Romney has significantly more upside, with 32% undecided against 15% for Obama.

The gender gap is neutered — pardon the pun — as Obama’s ten-point lead among women gets nearly matched by Romney’s nine-point lead among men.  Obama won by 13 among women in 2008 and edged McCain among men by one point, for a 14-point gender gap.  That’s down to a one-point gap, a virtual tie, and that can’t make Team Obama very happy.  The War on Wimminses strategy has utterly failed.  Independents split 41/40 for Romney, but that’s another problem for an incumbent who won 52% of independents in 2008.  If Obama is only at 40% among registered-voter independents after almost four years in office, this demo will break very sharply to Romney in the final weeks.

This is a very bad poll result for Team Obama from a surprisingly decent, if shallow, CBS survey.

 

 


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The dems have known from their internal polls for months that it’s even worse than this . . .

That’s why the smell of desperation is thick in the air.

PastorJon on August 28, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Still hard to believe Obama could be that close…

sandee on August 28, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Almost $ 200 million spent by Obama the welfare queens agitator to defeat Romney during the summer time and it failed very miserably. It is really simple folks, this election is about the Economy and Obama utterly failed record, nothing more and nothing less. No amount of lies, deceptions, and distractions by Obama and his media is going to change this most basic and powerful fact.

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:46 AM

The dems have known from their internal polls for months that it’s even worse than this . . .

That’s why the smell of desperation is thick in the air.

PastorJon on August 28, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Exactly… The internal polls for both campaign show that Obama is at least 4 points behind Romney and that Romney is going to win somewhere from 285 to 315 Electoral Votes….

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

FIR…
Crap.

fourth.

Tenwheeler on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Dead heat my azz.Bringing up the fake “War on Women”meme at the DNC is going to be an epic fail for Oslima.Mitt has nowhere to go but up after the RNC.

jeffinsjvca on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

This is a very bad poll result for Team Obama

I have no problem with that. But as is mentioned above, if this is the CBS poll, we can only imagine the internal polling and the fear that Axelrod and Cutter are feeling in Chicago.

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I don’t know…I’m sure seeing vaginas walking around the RNC will really push that gender gap in Obama’s favor. /

changer1701 on August 28, 2012 at 10:49 AM

This is a very bad poll result for Team Obama…

It seems like every post about a poll has included a variation of this line.

joekenha on August 28, 2012 at 10:50 AM

It is really simple folks, this election is about the Economy and Obama utterly failed record, nothing more and nothing less.

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:46 AM

So in other words, it IS about womens’ issues. Because jobs, the economy, national security, etc. ARE what women outside of single issue voters care about.

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 10:51 AM

This is a very bad poll result for Team Obama from a surprisingly decent, if shallow, CBS survey.

CBS shallow? Say it ain’t so.

Bitter Clinger on August 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Kind of silly to speculate about that, no?

Donald Draper on August 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

If they know its bad and likely Mitt could win, then why in the hell are they having the Abortion fest at the DNC in Charlotte? I don’t get them!

anchorman on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I have no problem with that. But as is mentioned above, if this is the CBS poll, we can only imagine the internal polling and the fear that Axelrod and Cutter are feeling in Chicago.

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

The Obama campaign main attack strategy against Romney was Bain Capital… When this failed very badly by mid-July, they started moving from one stupid subject to another almost on a daily basis, Romney tax returns, Romney is a Rich guy, Romney foreign bank accounts, Romney killed a woman wife with cancer, Romney is a felon, Todd Akin, war on women, etc… A campaign that changes the subject of attacks against their opponent is a desperate and losing campaign because changing the line of attack means that the previous line of attack did not work…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Only 41 percent of Americans said Romney understands their needs and problems, compared to 54 percent who feel Mr. Obama understands their needs and problems.

Confirmed: 54% of voters need more cocaine.

Archivarix on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

If they know its bad and likely Mitt could win, then why in the hell are they having the Abortion fest at the DNC in Charlotte? I don’t get them!

anchorman on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

They know they can’t win on the economy. So they hope they can change the subject to a topic that they can win an election on. Problem is, the electorate will not vote based on abortion, especially through the prism that dems want them to.

Donald Draper on August 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

And yet Obama only gets 46% of the leaned vote, and Romney exceeds the 41% on that question as well. Hmmm; perhaps voters are looking for other qualities than empathy, like, say, competence? Oddly, the CBS poll didn’t ask a single question on issues.

That’s because the intent of this poll is to sway voters. For them it’s about “feelings”, not about issues.

Red Creek on August 28, 2012 at 10:55 AM

If Obama wins then nothing short of another deep depression will convince the stupid among us that Liberalism DOES NOT WORK.

I’m going to punch an Obama voter if he wins. Friggin parasites.

Charlemagne on August 28, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Kind of silly to speculate about that, no?

Donald Draper on August 28, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Absolutely not… I have made my own Predictions model and I can easily see how Romney is beating Obama…

I made an Election Prediction model that is based on vote by “RACE” and based on the “Voters Intensity Factor”. In this model if I assume that 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012 then for Romney to win the following battleground states the percentage of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 who need to switch and vote for Romney in 2012 are as follow:

Florida (5% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Ohio (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Virginia (8% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
North Carolina (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Indiana (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Colorado (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Iowa (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
New Hampshire (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Wisconsin ( 14% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Minnesota (12% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Nevada ( 17% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Michigan (18% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)
Pennsylvania (19% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012)

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Should be fun times at the abortion convention

cmsinaz on August 28, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Ed, while you do a much better job than most when reporting polling information, it’s not accurate. If the MoE (the width of the confidence interval) is greater than the reported difference, it means that even saying ‘Obama up by 1′ is not a valid conclusion.

E.g., if this poll has a 3-pt. MoE, putting out a headline of ‘Romney up 2 over Obama’ is exactly as true as the headline you actually have.

Scott H on August 28, 2012 at 10:58 AM

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

All true but you forgot an important theme that fell flat. Paul Ryan is a radical that wants to kill old people. Remember how the Dems were high-fiving each other over the selection? They aren’t doing that anymore and, much to my surprise, the GOP has successfully talked about Medicare.

But, of course, how could the attack on Ryan be successful when the man does an interview on the HS football field in his hometown and at one point mentions that his tree stand is about six miles away.

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Obama won by 13 among women in 2008 and edged McCain among men by one point, for a 14-point gender gap.

Doesn’t that mean there was a 12-point gender gap?

acasilaco on August 28, 2012 at 11:01 AM

A +1 Barry lead, well within MOE, in a RV poll, before Death Star and the debates, is cold comfort for Team Barry.

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 11:01 AM

If they know its bad and likely Mitt could win, then why in the hell are they having the Abortion fest at the DNC in Charlotte? I don’t get them!

anchorman on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

it is called Desperation. They cannot win on any subject that is important to the majority of voters such as the Economy including Jobs, Debt, and Deficit because of Obama utterly failed record on this, so in their delusional minds they think that they are going to win on Abortion… Of course the majority of voters do not give a damn about Abortion in this elections but the delusional Obama, the liberals, and their media are not living in the real world so they do not get it.

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Vajajay Puppets, to the rescue!

faraway on August 28, 2012 at 11:03 AM

All true but you forgot an important theme that fell flat. Paul Ryan is a radical that wants to kill old people. Remember how the Dems were high-fiving each other over the selection? They aren’t doing that anymore and, much to my surprise, the GOP has successfully talked about Medicare.

But, of course, how could the attack on Ryan be successful when the man does an interview on the HS football field in his hometown and at one point mentions that his tree stand is about six miles away.

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Yes I forgot the Ryan issue and how the stupid delusional liberals were all excited that the Ryan pick is going to be the end of Romney. Now they do not even dare bringing Medicare in the discussion anymore after Romney/Ryan went on the offense telling the truth about Obamacare stealing $ 716 billions from Medicare…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Look at the comments on the liberal websites – people are voting against Romney, not for Obama. Few people have any real “hope” he’ll do well in his second term, they’ve just bought the anti-Romney nonsense.

And that’s the Democrat base. People who are not the base, are not going to turn out to vote for him. Obama will go down.

NoDonkey on August 28, 2012 at 11:06 AM

If they know its bad and likely Mitt could win, then why in the hell are they having the Abortion fest at the DNC in Charlotte? I don’t get them!

anchorman on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Just look at recent history of democRAT conventions going back 40 years. They always resort to single issue type nonsense at their conventions when they know they are going to lose.

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 11:06 AM

After the phony, but hard pushed and costly, war on Women, the edge for Barry among women went down from 12 in 2008 to 10 in this poll.

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Anyone have a rebuttal to Time magazine Mark Halpern’s (in HA headlines) contention that Obama will win despite, the poll results?

Halpern concludes that despite the polling fluctuations and Obama’s abysmal ratings, the electoral college still currently favors Obama’s re election. And I believe I saw Obama at 50% approval and rising in approval rating in the Rasmussen poll, which I deem more credible than some other polls. I dont get it, but that’s what it shows.

I need somebody to talk me off the ledge here.

Cavalry on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

If Obama is only at 40% among registered-voter independents after almost four years in office, this demo will break very sharply to Romney in the final weeks.

Not if we can help it!
/NBPP with nightsticks

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Exactly… The internal polls for both campaign show that Obama is at least 4 points behind Romney and that Romney is going to win somewhere from 285 to 315 Electoral Votes….

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Okay, now show us the link to your “internal polls”. The fact is, you don’t know and you are guessing.
They are “internal” for a reason.

The only way for us to know what the internals say, are how the ads and sound bites are played out.

It shows that the “switch” ad was good for Obama, so Mitt will and did follow suit.

They show that the Medicare debate is being won by the Republican’s, because they keep hammering and the dems stay away.

The only thing the dems have is the possibility of the women vote…and that is being eroded. Especially with the knew tack of saying women are more than contraceptives and abortion, they are business women, the dems are taking us back to issues that are not important to modern women. And that will work.

So I will be interested in seeing your link…

right2bright on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Obama won by 13 among women in 2008 and edged McCain among men by one point, for a 14-point gender gap. That’s down to a one-point gap, a virtual tie, and that can’t make Team Obama very happy.

that’s nothing that a giant, inflatable uterus and dancing vajayjays can’t fix./

ted c on August 28, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Sandra Fluke better arrive at the DIM Convention with a double dose of government supplied contraceptives… I hear the DIMs are going to party like Ted Kennedy was there…

WAR ON WOMEN!! WAR ON WOMEN!!
/s

Khun Joe on August 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

You don’t have to like Dick Morris to like this:

Romney Has Big Lead In My Poll

Drained Brain on August 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

So I will be interested in seeing your link…

right2bright on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Of course I do not have a link to the internal polls but I am making a very educated guess based on my own Predictions Model that I showed in a previous post on this thread.

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:15 AM

The War on Wimminses strategy has utterly failed.

But… but Pulitzer Prize winner and Client No. 9 cohort Kathleen Parker just made her Newsweek debut opining that Republicans are losing the war because they treat women “not as equals, but as totemic and unknowable!

Just ask the Dancing You Know Whats what being totemic feels like!

de rigueur on August 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Revising the polling for partisan weighting and likely voters is only the first step. If you stop there, Romney leads by about 2% in most normalized horserace polls.

The real story is the “undecided.” All of these polls have a cohort of “undecided” ranging from 6% to 10% of the total.

Polls like Battleground with several hundred pages of cross tabs suggest that these folks are not really undecided, but rather are mostly conservative male GOP church going folks who massively disapprove of the President’s job performance. There is little chance these folks will vote for Obama, but they just don’t much like Romney as the alternative.

Ryan should help in this regard.

Bart DePalma on August 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Only 41 percent of Americans said Romney understands their needs and problems, compared to 54 percent who feel Mr. Obama understands their needs and problems.

What a bunch of morons.

Hawkerflyer on August 28, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Despite spending the summer attempting to demonize Romney, both men have nearly identical favorability gaps

Which creates an even bigger problem for Obama: voters have had about five years to “get to know” Barry; no one should be undecided about him by now.

Conversely, many voters are just now being introduced to Mittens and for the first time; it won’t take many to like what they see to sway this election. Big time.

pain train on August 28, 2012 at 11:18 AM

I prefer to apply Occam’s Razor Theory to this election. Given what we know about the economy and the fact the economy is issue #1 the most obvious result will be a Romney victory.

mitchellvii on August 28, 2012 at 11:18 AM

I need somebody to talk me off the ledge here.

Cavalry on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

If you look at the Rassmusen daily tracking polls which is in my opinion are the most accurate you would easily notice that Obama and Romney have been with 2-3 points for months… i.e. within the margin of error… Nothing to worry about here… Halperin is also making assumption based on public polls of states… However in most of these battelground states Obama is up within the margin of error of the poll but most importantly Obama is less than 50% in almost all the battleground states and for an incumbent that is a disaster…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

…there can’t be that many stupid people at this point in time.

KOOLAID2 on August 28, 2012 at 11:20 AM

CBS poll: Obama only up 1, 46/45, among registered voters

.
Translation:

Romney has a significant lead in legitimate polls.
.
Example:

You don’t have to like Dick Morris to like this:

Romney Has Big Lead In My Poll

Drained Brain on August 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM

.
Thanks for that link, Drained Brain.

listens2glenn on August 28, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Halpern concludes that despite the polling fluctuations and Obama’s abysmal ratings, the electoral college still currently favors Obama’s re election.
Cavalry on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Electoral math using the cooked polls still favor Barry, yes. But WI, OH, VA and FL are not so in the bag for Barry as the skewed poll data told you.

IA is a very important swing state, the fact that Barry spent 3 days there with his bus tour a couple of weeks ago, and is going back there again today (actually there might have been more days, but I am not keeping a close tab), is telling you IA is much closer than the polls suggest.

The heat up part of the campaign for Romney is just starting up. That and the debates will decide the outcome.

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Halpern concludes that despite the polling fluctuations and Obama’s abysmal ratings, the electoral college still currently favors Obama’s re election.

I need somebody to talk me off the ledge here.

Cavalry on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Well how about this…. Halpern’s comments are based on the idea that the incumbent essentially has an edge in close toss ups elections. There has only been two one-term Presidents for decades past so all the modeling holds that America generally will not throw the incumbent out after four years. IMO, the race isn’t as close as the polling is showing because of the Bradley effect.

As the incumbent who won in a landslide Obama should be as bulletproof as Bill Clinton was in 1996. Instead the rat-eared bastard is blowing through more money than he is taking in before even being nominated for a second term. He’s reduced to declaring that his opponent caused a woman to die of cancer. And (the best part) the day after Obama’s acceptance speech the next jobs report comes out.

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Revising the polling for partisan weighting and likely voters is only the first step. If you stop there, Romney leads by about 2% in most normalized horserace polls.

The real story is the “undecided.” All of these polls have a cohort of “undecided” ranging from 6% to 10% of the total.

Polls like Battleground with several hundred pages of cross tabs suggest that these folks are not really undecided, but rather are mostly conservative male GOP church going folks who massively disapprove of the President’s job performance. There is little chance these folks will vote for Obama, but they just don’t much like Romney as the alternative.

Ryan should help in this regard.

Bart DePalma on August 28, 2012 at 11:16 AM

This is probably close to what is actually going on with the polls other than the weighting heavily towards the democRATs. Romney has yet to close the sale but he is leading. If and when(more likely when) he does close the sale you will know because what we thought were nasty ads coming from the marxist will appear tamed in comparison to what they will throw at Romney.

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

It is also pretty much a known fact that in most elections undecideds break 2 to 1 for the challenger.

bgibbs1000 on August 28, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Look at where Carter and Reagan were in August 1980:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/us-presidential-election-center.aspx

If you select the mid-August polling for the 1980 election, Carter was 1% ahead of Reagan. Weak incumbent, bad economy. So to suggest that Obama should be way behind and Romney should be way ahead now ignores history.

No worries…

beatcanvas on August 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

InTrade has Obama’s chances of winning at over 55%; McCaskill over 64%.

mankai on August 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I prefer to apply Occam’s Razor Theory to this election. Given what we know about the economy and the fact the economy is issue #1 the most obvious result will be a Romney victory.

mitchellvii on August 28, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Exactly… At the end and when voters go to the polls on November 6 2012 the majority of them are going to ask the simplest but most important question: “Do we want four more years of this misery?”. Their answer would be “No, hell No”… It is that simple…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

InTrade has Obama’s chances of winning at over 55%; McCaskill over 64%.

mankai on August 28, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I laugh when people quote Intrade. Folks, Intrade uses public polling nothing more nothing less… They do not have any secret information that the public does not have…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I can already picture the Democratic talking points for when Romney starts leading in all polls in the next 2 weeks – “Obama might be losing, but we are in great shape in the electoral college.”

milcus on August 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I need somebody to talk me off the ledge here.

Cavalry on August 28, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Buck up, man.

First of all, some hard truth… there is at very least a chance Obama can win. Some might tell you it is a good chance. I would say it is a fair chance. It’s tough to beat an incumbent, even a lying incompetent.

That said…

We probably have the right guy to beat him with. Romney is doing exactly what we expected Romney to do… build a war chest, and manage a campaign. He’s done a pretty good job so far. He’s got the Right fairly well united, largely on the “gutsy call” of picking Paul Ryan.

It’s halftime, the game is tied, and we still have fresh legs in the form of Romney’s general election fund. The world has yet to witness the power of this fully operational battle station.

Plus, consider the way I look at the Electoral College. Right now, there is a six point spread between where the average of polls (including polls of registered, as opposed to likely voters) at Obama +1.1 show the race is, and where the 2008 race actually finished, at Obama +7.3. That six point shift, spread across all states, means Florida, NC, and Ohio all shift into Likely Romney, and VA, CO, and NH are all right on the borderline.

Once Romney begins advertising in those states, the state by state polls will equalize to the national polls. Which, if registered voters only favor Obama +1, likely voters favor Romney probably +2-3, based on historical likely voter models favoring the GOP by 3-4 points over voter registration.

It’s a tight race. The good guys could lose. That’s what makes the work, money and turnout all that more important.

JohnGalt23 on August 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I can already picture the Democratic talking points for when Romney starts leading in all polls in the next 2 weeks – “Obama might be losing, but we are in great shape in the electoral college.”

milcus on August 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

You mean like empty town halls and rallies are merely Obama’s people wanting more intimate gatherings?

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 11:40 AM

It doesn’t look good for Dear Leader and his sycophants are already in panic mode…see Tingles.

d1carter on August 28, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I laugh when people quote Intrade. Folks, Intrade uses public polling nothing more nothing less… They do not have any secret information that the public does not have…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Intrade’s track record is better than the polling record at this point in previous cycles.

mankai on August 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

About Margin of Error—

I think too much is made of margin of error. A lot of times, so one will say that something to the effect that because a poll’s result shows two candidates within the margin of error, it is basically a crapshoot between the two, with each candidate having an equal chance of winning. This is not so. All MoE means is that there is a 95% chance (or whatever percent the confidence interval happens to be) that the actual result if you actually hold an election at that time would be within that MoE. (You can’t actually get to 100% confidence; it just approaches 100% confidence as you sample more and more people.) A poll that shows Romney up by two with MoE 3% is very much preferable to a poll that shows Obama up by two with MoE 3%. Also, MoE changes when percentages are very small. If a third-party candidate is polling at 2%, MoE for that candidate is much smaller than the two major candidates polling near 50%. There is, of course, no way a candidate can receive less than 0% of the vote.

Of course, how closely a poll reflects reality isn’t just a matter of statistical probability but accurately obtaining and refining a sample that reflects the electorate that will actually show up to vote. Some polls are obviously deliberately skewed, but even the most honest and objective pollster will have to do some guesswork as to how the electorate composition will be different in the next election relative to past elections. My optimism is generally buoyed in what seems to be much greater Republican enthusiasm this year versus Democratic enthusiasm. All the same, it’s hard to know exactly how one’s enthusiasm level will translate into actually showing up to vote.

MinnesotaSlinger on August 28, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Intrade’s track record is better than the polling record at this point in previous cycles.

mankai on August 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Intrade follow POLLS nothing more nothing less… Do you really think that the Intrade people have some different information than the public has? Seriously man… get real…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:48 AM

So, whats next on the Newsweek agenda? Obama our first woman President.

DDay on August 28, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I laugh when people quote Intrade. Folks, Intrade uses public polling nothing more nothing less… They do not have any secret information that the public does not have…

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

That assumes political insiders aren’t putting money down on InTrade.

JohnGalt23 on August 28, 2012 at 11:59 AM

mnjg on August 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM

bayview on August 28, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Happy Nomad on August 28, 2012 at 11:24 AM

JohnGalt23 on August 28, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Thanks for the responses. I feel better now, closer to my long held gut instinct that Obama will lose,and will probably lose big, particularly if all Obama can truly count on is his dispirited base.I think most voters will express in the privacy of the voter’s booth what they wont say to a pollster.

Cavalry on August 28, 2012 at 12:02 PM

If the socialists did one thing effectively in 2008, (other than creating an effective smoke and mirrors media effect for their community organizer)it would have to be their efforts to register new voters- other than just those newly aged voters in their late teens, early 20′s.

So you can be sure the leftists will always want to use the “registered voter demo with an incorrectly +D9 applied. Will they all turn out this time ? Thats the whole enchilada.

Two things you will never hear a liberal wanting to discuss.

2010

Shellacking

“Likability” and abortion. Thats all they have.

FlaMurph on August 28, 2012 at 12:08 PM

See the data and then apply
the Elmer Fudd rule: “Shhh be vewy vewy quiet.”

Carnac on August 28, 2012 at 12:33 PM

It’s about time for someone to release a poll with Obama up 6+ to fix his RCP average.

midgeorgian on August 28, 2012 at 12:35 PM

31/29/34

How does that work? That’s only 94%. Where’d the other 6% go?

strictnein on August 28, 2012 at 12:45 PM

If they know its bad and likely Mitt could win, then why in the hell are they having the Abortion fest at the DNC in Charlotte? I don’t get them!

anchorman on August 28, 2012 at 10:54 AM

They’re going after the 30% of high school dropouts that O’bama didn’t get in ’08.

Del Dolemonte on August 28, 2012 at 12:46 PM

How is this possible!?

I just don’t understand how ANYONE can support Obozo! He’s lied about so many things – many times his lies are extremly Orwellian in nature, he’s broken promises, he’s acted in contravention of our Constitution, he’s driving us off the fiscal cliff, he AND his wife act as if they’re royalty taking vacations to exotic locales and spending money (OUR MONEY) on frivalities while the nation suffers, and on and on and on….

HOW is this possible????

KMC1 on August 28, 2012 at 1:01 PM

after weighting, it’s 31/29/34.

Just to show you how ignorant I am, I always thought that samples were supposed to add up to 100. Your math does agree with the sampling data supplied by CBS.

That said, to be this close in a RV poll bodes ill for Obama.

Laurence on August 28, 2012 at 1:30 PM

The REAL poll numbers must be pretty bad for CBS to spew that crap/

GarandFan on August 28, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Said it before and I’ll say it again:
The fact that any poll has this corrupt, petty ,left wing creep polling above 10% means that the Republic is over.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on August 28, 2012 at 2:10 PM

If Obama wins then nothing short of another deep depression will convince the stupid among us that Liberalism DOES NOT WORK.

I’m going to punch an Obama voter if he wins. Friggin parasites.

Charlemagne on August 28, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Wrong. It means the stupid will just blame a (R) or say that “it wasn’t done the right way.” Liberals never learn.

Decoski on August 28, 2012 at 3:56 PM