Romney up 1 in new WaPo/ABC poll, 47/46

posted at 9:21 am on August 27, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

These days, even a D+9 sample can’t buy Barack Obama a lead in the Washington Post/ABC poll.  Instead, Mitt Romney has a one-point edge, 47/46, but more tellingly a four-point margin among independents:

The Republican National Convention opens this week with President Obama and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney running evenly, with voters more focused on Obama’s handling of the nation’s flagging economy than on some issues dominating the political debate in recent weeks.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent — barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July. …

Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate also did not fundamentally reshape the race, although the GOP’s conservative base has grown more enthusiastic about the ticket — but no more so about the chances of beating Obama in November.

This is the first time that Obama has lost the lead since a brief polling burst for Romney in January, before he’d won the Republican nomination.  In the very next poll, Obama soared above 50%, but has been on a straight-line descent ever since.  Romney’s line of ascent is less pronounced but still steady since then:

Don’t forget that Team Obama spent $120 million this summer trying to toxify Romney, too.

As mentioned, this poll has a D+9 sample, with Republicans ridiculously undersampled at 22%.  The 2008 election had a split of D+7, 39/32,29, and the 2010 midterms had a split of 35/35/30.  The likelihood of getting a D+9 turnout in this election is nil, as is the likelihood of an electorate that is comprised of 22% Republicans.  Even if we saw it, Obama would still only get 46% of the vote as an incumbent, hardly a gratifying position for Team Obama.

There is even more bad news in the internals. Until Ryan joined the ticket, Romney had a deficit among the definitely-decided voters, a small one of 3-5 points.  That has disappeared, and now Romney gets 82% certainty to Obama’s 84%.  Romney’s running ten points better than John McCain did at this point — as Obama is over his own 2008 performance.

Even worse, the gender gap on which Obama is counting is not materializing.  The only two issues on which he reaches 50% against Romney are “social issues” (52/38) and “women’s issues” (51/35), but that’s not translating into an electoral advantage.  The pollster memo which accompanies the ABC story shows unmarried women breaking sharply for Obama (57/32), but married women favoring Romney by 15 points (55/40).  The split among single and married men is similar, with Obama up 10 points among singles (51/41) but down 24 points among marrieds (35/59).  That translates overall to just a six-point lead for Obama among women, 49/43, while Romney takes a nine-point lead among men, 51/42.

As if that wasn’t bad enough news, Obama’s draw among younger voters has substantially decreased as well.  He only leads the under-40 vote by 13 points, 51/38.  Obama loses the seniors by eight, 43/51.  For the first time in a while, the Republican leads in the college-graduate demo too, 49/47, although that’s obviously a virtual tie.  Obama has dominated among college graduates until now.

Why all the bad news?  This election will be about the economy and jobs, taxes, and the federal budget.  Here are the comparison numbers for Obama and Romney on those issues in the D+9 sample among registered voters:

  • Economy: Romney 50/43
  • Deficit: Romney 51/38
  • Taxes: Romney 48/43

Romney even has an edge on Medicare, 45/42, which shows just how unpopular ObamaCare is.  Obama gets an overall edge on health care, 47/45, and on education, 45/42, but these are usually huge Democrat issues.  Obama has dissipated the traditional Democratic Party advantages, and left himself no shelter on jobs, the economy, and deficit control.

In a rational sample, this wouldn’t even be close.

Update: Nick Jacob points out that the sample data relates to the general-population sample; the registered voter sample (in which Romney leads) is D+7, still at a ridiculous 32/25/36:

As Nick says, the sample still isn’t representative or predictive.


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yeah

screwauger on August 27, 2012 at 9:23 AM

These days, even a D+9 sample can’t buy Barack Obama a lead in the Washington Post/ABC poll.

Nor a poll of registered as opposed to likely voters.

Red Cloud on August 27, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Oh come on! Noone who doesn’t kill puppies would be an eeeevil Republican. The Washington Post is getting slack in its riggin. . . er. . . sampling.

WannabeAnglican on August 27, 2012 at 9:25 AM

These days, even a D+9 sample can’t buy Barack Obama a lead in the Washington Post/ABC poll. Instead, Mitt Romney has a one-point edge, 47/46, but more tellingly a four-point margin among independents

A D+9 sample of registered voters and Obama still comes out behind by a point? This is gonna be a landslide.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Let’s see the revised #s with the Charlie Crist endorsement, gonna be the moment the tide turned…

/

hillsoftx on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

This election will be about the economy and jobs, taxes, and the federal budget.

but, what about the Almighty Uterus???

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The pollster memo which accompanies the ABC story shows unmarried women breaking sharply for Obama (57/32),

snakes have a way of deceiving unknowing women.

/history

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Herman Cain is hammering Obama about something.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Democrats kinda miss the the point that contraception has nothing to do with gas prices and inflation.

rob verdi on August 27, 2012 at 9:29 AM

And Romney hasn’t started spending money yet. Wait until after the convention.

I predict that he opens a 5 point lead and keeps it. But I’m an optimist.

Once the perception is created that Obama is going to lose that perception will feed on itself and cause more Obama voters to stay home.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Wow. and this is pre-convention bounce!

parteagirl on August 27, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Not only do I want Obama to get crushed, I want this year to be a repet of 2012 with as many Socialists Democrats are swept away as possible.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Great Analysis Ed thank you! (of course it helps that I like where the data is heading lol)

As a side note this is why the RCP average is total garbage. Nearly every poll entered into their average has had a ridiculous or near ridiculous D+ advantage cooked into the numbers making the RCP average this election totally worthless for anything other than trending.

We need to not get overconfident but we shou7ld also behave like winners to build confidence an get those still undecided to move to our side.

Nothing promotes teamwork like the perception of winning.

Skwor on August 27, 2012 at 9:32 AM

And Romney hasn’t started spending money yet. Wait until after the convention.

I predict that he opens a 5 point lead and keeps it. But I’m an optimist.

Once the perception is created that Obama is going to lose that perception will feed on itself and cause more Obama voters to stay home.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:29 AM

I’ve been wondering about that. If/when Romney finally builds a lead outside the margin of error….scratch that. He’s probably already got that lead. But once the media starts to use accurate poll samples to reflect that, I’m curious to see if there’ll be a snowball effect where undecideds start to abandon Obama in droves if it looks like he’s gonna lose.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Tingles to continue spewing his race card antics

cmsinaz on August 27, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Let’s see the revised #s with the Charlie Crist endorsement, gonna be the moment the tide turned…

/

hillsoftx on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Oh, I’m sure that will do it. heh. I know you’re kidding about the tide turning but I wonder if this will further depress Obama’s numbers here.

I’m not sure if people outside of Florida realize it, but Crist is now constantly seen on TV working with our largest ambulance chasing law group. I’m sure every state has one. The one that runs endless commercials encouraging everyone to sue everybody.

taternuggets on August 27, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Not only do I want Obama to get crushed, I want this year to be a repeat of 2012 with as many Socialists Democrats marxists are swept away as possible.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

FIFY

bgibbs1000 on August 27, 2012 at 9:34 AM

But once the media starts to use accurate poll samples to reflect that, I’m curious to see if there’ll be a snowball effect where undecideds start to abandon Obama in droves if it looks like he’s gonna lose.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I’ve wondered about that. It appears as if there are these skewed D samples at all other times other than during the last few weeks/months of the election.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Let’s see the revised #s with the Charlie Crist endorsement, gonna be the moment the tide turned…

/

hillsoftx on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

HEh!!lolz.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:36 AM

There is nothing more fun than asking a, (rational) 2008 Obama voter if they plan to support him again. There’s an awful lot of embarrassed eye rolling and then usually some cheap shot about Romney being “in a cult”, or “being robotic”. Rarely do I hear anything substantive, or that yes, Obama’s done such a swell job, I’m voting for him again. I bet most of those disappointed Dem’s just stay home this year. Fine with me.

BettyRuth on August 27, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I bet most of those disappointed Dem’s just stay home this year. Fine with me.

BettyRuth on August 27, 2012 at 9:36 AM

maybe they could see fit to go punish Team O for being such a bunch of bumbling, babbling, TOTUS reading fools.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I just can’t understand how anyone could vote for Obozo. How can it be this close?

KMC1 on August 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Man… I hope this trend stays. Better yet it’d be nice if Romney just walked away with all the delegates needed to win the presidency and put Obama in his place. Then it’ll be really fun to watch Obama squirm and pout.

fistbump on August 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

If R/R can ignore the Dems various distracting memes and stay on message about the economy and energy, I predict that the Dems will start going bat sh!t crazy at their inability to control the message of the election. Their inability to control the message will cause them to make more mistakes that will compound on each other.

It’s going to be fun to watch.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Let’s see the revised #s with the Charlie Crist endorsement, gonna be the moment the tide turned…

/

hillsoftx on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

…I think my local school lunch counter lady is endorsing JugEars too and she has a natural tan!

KOOLAID2 on August 27, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I predict that the Dems will start going bat sh!t crazy at their inability to control the message of the election. Their inability to control the message will cause them to make more mistakes that will compound on each other.

It’s going to be fun to watch.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Chris Mathews was pretty unhinged at Reince Preibus this morning. Foaming at the yap.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Ed: There was a Dem skew, but it was +7 among RV and that was used to get the head to head result. +9 was using all adults. I made the same mistake, you have to click on detailed view to get the RV party breakdown.. The breakdown for RV is

32 D
25 R
36 I

but the result is still good for Romney that even with a +7 Dem overweight, and RV subjects, Barry can managed only a +1

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I shudder to imagine the crap barack is going to pull between now and the election. He NEVER loses. He will do ANYTHING to win. Anything. It is going to get bad ugly before we vote this con man out. The debates? Romney had better be ready because the obamamedia will be there with one mission in mind — to destroy him.

Rational Thought on August 27, 2012 at 9:43 AM

but, what about the Almighty Uterus???

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

…I think it’s orange too!

KOOLAID2 on August 27, 2012 at 9:44 AM

We need to not get overconfident but we shou7ld also behave like winners to build confidence an get those still undecided to move to our side.

Nothing promotes teamwork like the perception of winning.

Skwor on August 27, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Speaking for myself, overconfidence is not a problem. My motivation to drive Obama from the White House is fed by commitment, not confidence. Adding to my confidence does not reduce my commitment.

swinia sutki on August 27, 2012 at 9:44 AM

maybe they could see fit to go punish Team O for being such a bunch of bumbling, babbling, TOTUS reading fools.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Yeah well, I wish I had friends and relatives with more depth, but I don’t seem to….Dem’s may be disappointed with Barry, but they still have this bizarre attachment to liberal policies. I call it, “Save the world syndrome”. However, now that so many of them are looking at flat 401k’s and the unemployment lines, they’re less vocal about it.

BettyRuth on August 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

This poll is racist.

22044 on August 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Rats, in the meantime, Rasmussen has Barry up 3.

Obama 47, Romney 44 5 Undecided. Obama +3

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Rats, in the meantime, Rasmussen has Barry up 3.

Obama 47, Romney 44 5 Undecided. Obama +3

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:47 AM

poll noise.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:48 AM

This poll reeks. The D+9 is of adults, not registered voters. Amongst adults Obama leads in this poll 49-42. The final result is weighted, but we get no party affiliation breakdown for the weighted result.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 9:48 AM

John Sununu is a helluva surrogate for Mr. Romney.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

WaPo afraid of Honest Polling? I am shocked!

Del Dolemonte on August 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

As much as I’m thrilled to see this, I have this sneaking feeling we’re being set up, in a way.
Dang, I hate feeling so skeptical, but can’t the left use this a some sort of benchmark to point to, should any new polls show R&R losing a point or two ??
Am I crazy to think this way ? Maybe it’s the high-powered allergy meds ?? ;-)

pambi on August 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

A D+9 sample of registered voters and Obama still comes out behind by a point? This is gonna be a landslide.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Everyone keeps misreporting this, including Ed. The D+9 is among adults, where Obama leads Romney 49/42.

Among registered voters, where Romney leads Obama 47/46, the sample is D+7. Obviously still too high, but not D+9.

nicktjacob on August 27, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I just can’t understand how anyone could vote for Obozo. How can it be this close?

KMC1 on August 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Not hard to understand when you have millions upon millions for consecutive generations raised on government handouts and welfare. Couple that with the open socialism/marxism and dumbing down of the population via the public schools over consecutive generations, add in the open borders situation and you make possible a Barack Obama becoming president.

bgibbs1000 on August 27, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Great Analysis Ed thank you! (of course it helps that I like where the data is heading lol)

As a side note this is why the RCP average is total garbage. Nearly every poll entered into their average has had a ridiculous or near ridiculous D+ advantage cooked into the numbers making the RCP average this election totally worthless for anything other than trending.

The RCP average only takes the arithmetic average of percentages for candidates in each poll, regardless of sample size, or whether the poll is of registered voters, likely voters, or simply “adults” who may not even be eligible to vote.

Not weighting the average by sample size can distort the results. For example, if Romney leads by 2% in a Gallup weekly tracking poll of 3500 people (a 70-vote lead), and Obama leads by 10% in a poll of 500 adults by some Shame Stream media outlet (a 50-vote lead), the RCP average of these two polls would show Obama leading by 4%, although among the 4000 people sampled, Romney would have a 20-vote (0.5% lead).

On the other hand, Rasmussen shows Obama leading 47-44. What gives here, unless this is a weekend poll where married couples (who vote more Republican) are out with the kids, and singles (who vote more Democrat) are sitting by the phone?

Steve Z on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Even worse, the gender gap on which Obama is counting is not materializing. The only two issues on which he reaches 50% against Romney are “social issues” (52/38) and “women’s issues” (51/35), but that’s not translating into an electoral advantage.

Just wait until the “bounce” from the DNC convention and celebration of abortion. That’ll bring the gals around.

Seriously though, outside of abortion, what exactly is a “women’s issue?” Are not women concerned with national security? Do not women care about the fact that there has been a 47% increase in food stamp enrollments? Are women indifferent to the national debt that they are strapping on the backs of their children? I’m trying to understand why women only care about the ability to kill off life and get free contraception when all these other more important issues are out there that effect women as much as men.

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Amazingly, Nate Silver thinks Obumbles chances have gotten better over the last few days. Inexplicable.

MTF on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

poll noise.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I know, 3 days tracking over the weekend. But Rasmussen had been bouncing around erratically over the 2 weeks after the Ryan selection, and had diverged from the result from Gallup. It is nice to have a confirmation of a trend towards Romney in Rasmussen as well.

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Among registered voters, where Romney leads Obama 47/46, the sample is D+7. Obviously still too high, but not D+9.

nicktjacob on August 27, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Where did you get the D+7 amongst registered voters from? The only number I can find is D+9 that I assume is for adults since this is a poll of adults.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

I predict that the Dems will start going bat sh!t crazy at their inability to control the message of the election. Their inability to control the message will cause them to make more mistakes that will compound on each other.

It’s going to be fun to watch.

Charlemagne on August 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Chris Mathews was pretty unhinged at Reince Preibus this morning. Foaming at the yap.

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:41 AM

As long as he didn”t spit…I hate to see the specs of his saliva in HD and magnified on my big LED screen :)….soooo, what was his beef with Priebus…I love Rince coz he’s got that ‘I can’t be bothered’ look and attitude when interviewed by the Dim media…I love how he drives them crazy, then carry on imperturbably with the point or argument he is making…such a refreshing change from that idiot, michael steele…..

jimver on August 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

It’s a good start, but I wonder what their own polls are telling them?

Bob's Kid on August 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

As a side note this is why the RCP average is total garbage. Nearly every poll entered into their average has had a ridiculous or near ridiculous D+ advantage cooked into the numbers making the RCP average this election totally worthless for anything other than trending.

Speaking of RCP, why can’t I get on that site today?

Steve Z on August 27, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Everyone keeps misreporting this, including Ed. The D+9 is among adults, where Obama leads Romney 49/42.

Among registered voters, where Romney leads Obama 47/46, the sample is D+7. Obviously still too high, but not D+9.

nicktjacob on August 27, 2012 at 9:50 AM

D+7 is slightly better, but it’s still a laughable sample. That was the final margin in 2008. Does anyone seriously believe that the turnout in November will look like this?

Rats, in the meantime, Rasmussen has Barry up 3.

Obama 47, Romney 44 5 Undecided. Obama +3

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Makes perfect sense. That includes Saturday and Sunday which has consistently been poor for Romney over the last few months since it seems like conservatives are never home to answer the phone. If Obama’s up 3 come Thursday, then I’d be concerned.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

On the other hand, Rasmussen shows Obama leading 47-44. What gives here, unless this is a weekend poll where married couples (who vote more Republican) are out with the kids, and singles (who vote more Democrat) are sitting by the phone?

Steve Z on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

I find that odd, too, and probably not all that accurate. Guess we’ll see what Gallup says…think they’ve had it tied for a couple days.

changer1701 on August 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Today’s Rasmussen.

Marxist 47
Romney 44

WTF? Would like to know Rasmussen’s internals.

bgibbs1000 on August 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

I am more interested in Rasmussen’s state polls. I don’t pay attention to his or Gallup’s daily tracker because information on demographics is not easily obtainable for these polls.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

However, now that so many of them are looking at flat 401k’s and the unemployment lines, they’re less vocal about it.

BettyRuth on August 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

There’s a significant group out there that hate Obama but can’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican. This is the group that is apt to be most swayed by the convention and stuff like Ann Romney speaking about Mitt Romney the husband and father (why do you think the MSM sought to squelch this speech from the convention coverage).

BTW- one thing the RNC is doing is opening the convention by starting a debt clock so they can point out just how much the debt has risen just in the space of the convention. That’s a pretty nice touch IMO.

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

How many Romney supporters do you suppose even know what Intrade is?

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Where did you get the D+7 amongst registered voters from? The only number I can find is D+9 that I assume is for adults since this is a poll of adults.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Unless I misread it, I think the D+7 was from 2008.

bgibbs1000 on August 27, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Where did you get the D+7 amongst registered voters from? The only number I can find is D+9 that I assume is for adults since this is a poll of adults.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You have to click on detailed view on the question about party breakdown to get the RV numbers

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I’m in IA and lots of ads are running but about 2/3 are Obama. Romney has some very good ones out though. if he stays true to form Romney will hold fire until two weeks before the election and then Carpet bomb the Lyin kING with non stop all out shock and awe.
he did it in every primary state and even when his opponents led going into the final two weeks he drove em to way below his numbers.
I hope Romney buys every available ad spot the final two weeks and decides later how negative to go to finish off the Imposter!

ConcealedKerry on August 27, 2012 at 10:01 AM

It seems so strange that when every one of the 3rd rate polls had Romney down by like 5-8, Rasmussen had Romney up, and now that the trash polls are finally showing Romney up, Rasmussen has Romney down.

Regardless, I think it is fair to say that at this point, Romney, at worst is a 50/50 bet to win (before spending his vast fortune, becoming the nominee, and having 3 debates with Obama). More likely, he is up by 1-2 with some more room to grow.

Either way, I would rather be in Romney’s shoes right now than Obama’s.

milcus on August 27, 2012 at 10:01 AM

BREAKING!!!

Latest poll has Obama up 60/40

D+30…

GrayDog on August 27, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Where did you get the D+7 amongst registered voters from? The only number I can find is D+9 that I assume is for adults since this is a poll of adults.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/08/27/National-Politics/Polling/question_6552.xml?uuid=j1Z1IO_8EeG3TITtVeAwCw#

You have to tab between “All Adults” and “Registered Voters”

nicktjacob on August 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

The number one tool in a free market is information. If information is lacking or poor, then bad decisions are made. These are people making a bet on the best available information. The best available information are polls of adults and registered voters with D+5 to D+10 samples. I personally believe Romney has a 6 to 8 point lead right now amongst those who have committed their votes, but we won’t see any accurate polling of people until a few weeks before the election. Intrade will fluctuate with the news of the day, not with reality.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

BTW- one thing the RNC is doing is opening the convention by starting a debt clock so they can point out just how much the debt has risen just in the space of the convention. That’s a pretty nice touch IMO.

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Good move. What I really want Romney to do is at the townhall debate, tell some random person who asks a question what their share of the debt is that Obama’s accumulated in 4 years. That alone would win him the election.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Unless I misread it, I think the D+7 was from 2008.

bgibbs1000 on August 27, 2012 at 9:58 AM

It was. But that was also the sample among registered voters in this poll.

nicktjacob on August 27, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Unless I misread it, I think the D+7 was from 2008.

bgibbs1000 on August 27, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Go to the actual poll and stroll to question Q

Q: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a…
Hide Results
Detailed View

Click on the detailed view tab, and it will bring up 2 categories: All adults, and RV. Then click on RV, and it will lead you to the +7.

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 10:04 AM

And down 3 in Rasmussen….is it opposite day? Also how can there be a D+9 sample with only a 4 point Romney lead among independents and Romney still be up? How many Dems does WAPO think are voting for Obama?

libfreeordie on August 27, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I’m trying to understand why women only care about the ability to kill off life and get free contraception when all these other more important issues are out there that effect women as much as men.

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 9:52 AM

It’s a little thing called “messaging”. As long as most of the media that uninformed people are influenced by remains leftist, we’ll continue to hear about how republicans want women to be second-class citizens–no matter how absurd the notion.

RedCrow on August 27, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

There are not big money in it anyways, so they/the left don’t even have to spend that much to keep Obama up in there…

jimver on August 27, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Paging Gumby, paging Pokey …

Right Mover on August 27, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM
How many Romney supporters do you suppose even know what Intrade is?

Hmmm, maybe, but I got co-workers here in the govt giving Intrade pretty heavy weighting as a fairly reliable indicator. If we assume the actual support for Obama is overstated in the polls that makes Intrade REALLY off.

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Good move. What I really want Romney to do is at the townhall debate, tell some random person who asks a question what their share of the debt is that Obama’s accumulated in 4 years. That alone would win him the election.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

They should have a video montage of idiot-Harry on the Senate floor, babbling about all of his nonsense, with a caption at the bottom of the screen giving the number of days without a budget.

RedCrow on August 27, 2012 at 10:08 AM

And down 3 in Rasmussen….is it opposite day? Also how can there be a D+9 sample with only a 4 point Romney lead among independents and Romney still be up? How many Dems does WAPO think are voting for Obama?

libfreeordie on August 27, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Aww. lookie, Libfree is about to get his panties in a waddle over a poll..when his boy is up it’s all about how professional and accurate the polls are, when he’s down, outrage, disgrace, what were WAPO thinking doing that poll :)…priceless, you gotta love it….

jimver on August 27, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Ed, in addition to the graph you posted, it would be interesting to see an equivalent graph of the +democrat polling sample deltas alongside.

AZfederalist on August 27, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

It’s quite simple actually – a sitting president is supposed to win. In the last 80 years, only 2 sitting presidents have lost (Carter, who was as awful as Obama, and Bush, who lied and then got Perot’ed). In addition, the media has spent months saying how Obama was gaining steam, and will continue to do that. So, intrade reflects that general consensus.

However, after the conventions, when Romney gets a greater bounce than Obama, he starts hitting the air heavily, and the polls switch to a likely voter model, the intrade number should drop below 50% by week 3 of the NFL season.

milcus on August 27, 2012 at 10:10 AM

What I really want Romney to do is at the townhall debate, tell some random person who asks a question what their share of the debt is that Obama’s accumulated in 4 years. That alone would win him the election.

Doughboy on August 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

What? You mean Romney shouldn’t be using the debates to let us know what superpower he would like or if he prefers red or green peppers? How’s the public going to be able to decide without knowing that stuff? ;0

Seroiusly, what I would like to see in one of the debates after the rat-eared bastard talks about the Romney/Ryan plan destroying Medicare for Mitt to say something along the lines of “Well I think we’d all like to see the plan you developed during your term but of course all we know is that you don’t have a plan you just don’t like ours. Tell me again how that is leadership?”

The tactic would also work with the national debt, the budget, or job creation.

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Obama’s intrade number has been trending down – it was at like 57-58% over the last couple of weeks. Traditionally, incumbent presidents get reelected, so there will always be betting action on him unless there’s a major shift.

The Count on August 27, 2012 at 10:11 AM

They should have a video montage of idiot-Harry on the Senate floor, babbling about all of his nonsense, with a caption at the bottom of the screen giving the number of days without a budget.

RedCrow on August 27, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I think that under the debt clock there should be a giant sign that asks Why Obama and Dems hate children so much.

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 10:12 AM

You have to tab between “All Adults” and “Registered Voters”

nicktjacob on August 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I was looking at a page linked through RCP that didn’t have the busy Java options. Thank you.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Also how can there be a D+9 sample with only a 4 point Romney lead among independents and Romney still be up? How many Dems does WAPO think are voting for Obama?

libfreeordie on August 27, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Not surprisingly, you have a problem with math and reading comprehensions. The poll has a +7 Dem skew, and Romney is leading (+4) with independents. That is not enough to overcome a sample skew, the result is Barry up 1. But as liberals, maths is not something they understand or take into account. They are Fine Arts “Education” and Social Sciences majors in college, aren’t they?

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Romney up 1 in new WaPo/ABC poll, 47/46

But Ed, really…Where do the 3rd Party candidates stand right now?

Isn’t the Johnson/Paul Juggernaut beating them BOTH 99 to 16?

R3VoLUtion!

/yes this was humor and not an endorsement. Heh.

BlaxPac on August 27, 2012 at 10:14 AM

The number one tool in a free market is information. If information is lacking or poor, then bad decisions are made. These are people making a bet on the best available information. The best available information are polls of adults and registered voters with D+5 to D+10 samples. I personally believe Romney has a 6 to 8 point lead right now amongst those who have committed their votes, but we won’t see any accurate polling of people until a few weeks before the election. Intrade will fluctuate with the news of the day, not with reality.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

It’s quite simple actually – a sitting president is supposed to win. In the last 80 years, only 2 sitting presidents have lost (Carter, who was as awful as Obama, and Bush, who lied and then got Perot’ed). In addition, the media has spent months saying how Obama was gaining steam, and will continue to do that. So, intrade reflects that general consensus.

However, after the conventions, when Romney gets a greater bounce than Obama, he starts hitting the air heavily, and the polls switch to a likely voter model, the intrade number should drop below 50% by week 3 of the NFL season.

milcus on August 27, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Thanks, this makes sense that unless you are aware of quality of the info you go with what you see and hear.

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Not surprisingly, you have a problem with math and reading comprehensions. The poll has a +7 Dem skew, and Romney is leading (+4) with independents. That is not enough to overcome a sample skew, the result is Barry up 1. But as liberals, maths is not something they understand or take into account. They are Fine Arts “Education” and Social Sciences majors in college, aren’t they?

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Got confused with too many polls, especially this one so poorly presented in the formatting.
The +4 edge for Romney among independents was enough to overcome the +7 Dem overweight and Romney was +1, 47 vs 46 for Barry,. But what I said about liberals and math is still true.

bayview on August 27, 2012 at 10:22 AM

It seems so strange that when every one of the 3rd rate polls had Romney down by like 5-8, Rasmussen had Romney up, and now that the trash polls are finally showing Romney up, Rasmussen has Romney down.

Regardless, I think it is fair to say that at this point, Romney, at worst is a 50/50 bet to win (before spending his vast fortune, becoming the nominee, and having 3 debates with Obama). More likely, he is up by 1-2 with some more room to grow.

Either way, I would rather be in Romney’s shoes right now than Obama’s.

milcus on August 27, 2012 at 10:01 AM

It’s going to be like this, probably, all the way to election day. But a 50/50 shot for Romney to win means Romney wins, and wins pretty easily. Undecided voters break for the challenger. Always have, always will. They know barack, and they do not want to vote for him.

Rational Thought on August 27, 2012 at 10:26 AM

But Ann Romney shot a horse ate a horse married a horse.

/MSLSD

CorporatePiggy on August 27, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Rational Thought on August 27, 2012 at 10:26 AM

More importantly there will be no D+ this election. Pollsters seem to inhabit a strange alternate universe in which the only historical turnout data they have available to them is the 2008 election.

NotCoach on August 27, 2012 at 10:30 AM

But Romney gave Joe Soptic’s dog cancer, and rode around with Soptic’s wife on the roof of his car!

eyedoc on August 27, 2012 at 10:36 AM

It seems so strange that when every one of the 3rd rate polls had Romney down by like 5-8, Rasmussen had Romney up, and now that the trash polls are finally showing Romney up, Rasmussen has Romney down.

Ras has Obama approval at 50. One thing I’ve noticed is that the horse race poll correlates strongly with O’s approval.

That may merely reveal my flair for the obvious, but perhaps it’s not so simple. I can see why Romney might have deteriorated over the past week, but not why Obama is viewed more positively. But maybe some moderate women have been reminded why they don’t vote Republican and why they like Obama.

It could also be that as we get away from new economic news, Obama’s positives move up. When voters are reminded of how bad the economy is with a new report, they view O more negatively. Just a guess.

bobs1196 on August 27, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Rasmussen daily tracking poll (national):

Obama 47%

Romney 44%

Rasmussen daily tracking poll (11 swing states):

Obama 48%

Romney 44%

technopeasant on August 27, 2012 at 10:48 AM

It could also be that as we get away from new economic news, Obama’s positives move up. When voters are reminded of how bad the economy is with a new report, they view O more negatively. Just a guess.

bobs1196 on August 27, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Some say it is the weekend effect but Ras has had Obama doing better for more than just a weekend. Some say it is the Akin effect and undecided/leaning women are going toward Obama enough to be considered likely voters now in Ras’s poll but I also wondered if people with jobs and children are going on vacations in August before school starts again while the underemployed stay home could have an effect?

In any case, I think we are coming to a two week period where polls will be moving around with conventions, hurricanes, Labor Day trips etc. and we may just have to wait until the third week in September to know where the race really stands.

KW64 on August 27, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Can anyone opine on why Obama has such a larger lead on Intrade? Is the left so rabid that they are spending money just to keep Obama showing a 55.8% probability to be reelected?

yakyak on August 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

as someone how has spent 35 years wagering on horses, heres two words for you: dumb money.
and we count on that to pad the parimutual pools. provides higher payouts than would occur in normal circumstances. consider it a wagering gift.

t8stlikchkn on August 27, 2012 at 11:02 AM

But Ann Romney married a horse.

CorporatePiggy on August 27, 2012 at 10:30 AM

So did BHO, what’s your point? ;0

Happy Nomad on August 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I’d wager that Romney is up more than 4 points with Independents based on my own experience and due to this:

A report released today by the centrist think-tank Third Way showed that more than 825,000 voters in eight key battleground states have fled the Democratic Party since Obama won election in 2008.

“The numbers show that Democrats’ path to victory just got harder,” said Lanae Erickson, the report’s co-author. “We are seeing both an increase in independents and a decrease in Democrats and that means the coalition they have to assemble is going to rely even more on independents in 2012 than it did in 2008.” [...]

In eight states that will be must-wins in 2012 – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – Democrats lost 5.4 percent of their registered voters while Republicans lost 3.1 percent. The number of independent voters in those states jumped 3.4 percent.

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb-staff/2011/12/08/open-thread-democrats-losing-voters-2012-battleground-states#ixzz24lB5iU3f

OxyCon on August 27, 2012 at 11:16 AM

steebo77′s Daily Swing State Report - August 27, 2012

State / Rolling Average / Latest Poll / Electoral Votes
Indiana / Romney +15.7% / Jul 31 / 11
Montana / Romney +14.8% / Aug 20 / 3
Georgia / Romney +11.4% / May 22 / 16
Arizona / Romney +9.8% / Jul 24 / 11
Missouri / Romney +5.5% / Aug 22 / 10
North Carolina / Romney +1.8% / Aug 3 / 15
Florida / Romney +0.9% / Aug 18 / 29
National (tracking only) / Romney +0.9% / Aug 25 / NA
National (w/ tracking) / Romney +0.3% / Aug 25 / NA
Iowa / Romney +0.0% / Aug 8 / 6
Virginia / Romney -1.3% / Aug 23 / 13
National (w/o tracking) / Romney -1.7% / Aug 25 / NA
Ohio / Romney -2.0% / Aug 21 / 18
Michigan / Romney -2.2% / Aug 23 / 16
Colorado / Romney -2.2% / Aug 21 / 9
Nevada / Romney -2.7% / Aug 18 / 6
Wisconsin / Romney -2.7% / Aug 18 / 10
New Hampshire / Romney -2.8% / Aug 10 / 4
Pennsylvania / Romney -7.0% / Aug 22 / 20
Oregon / Romney -7.3% / Jun 22 / 7
Minnesota / Romney -7.9% / Jul 18 / 10
Connecticut / Romney -8.1% / Aug 21 / 7
New Jersey / Romney -11.1% / Jul 26 / 14
New Mexico / Romney -12.1% / Aug 21 / 5
Maine / Romney -12.9% / Jun 22 / 4
Washington / Romney -13.6% / Aug 1 / 12

steebo77 on August 27, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Looks like it is time for the LSM to adjust the D sample up and the R sample down, again.

All just to get the “right” result.

Nov is still a long way off.

Gunlock Bill on August 27, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Gallop now has Romney leading, +1% among registered voters, and once again confirms that Romney is surging among independents.

So we now have numerous polls showing Romney slowly and steadily gaining, and then we have Rassmussen. I hate to dismiss Rassmussen since they’ve done some excellent polling in the past, but between the odd jumping around they’ve done lately and that dramatically out of line Missouri poll a few days ago, I’m inclined to think their model has fallen apart somehow.

WolvenOne on August 27, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Can someone tell me why the Democrats always have an advantage in the polls? Is that based on registered Democrats? Likely to vote or something else?

GadsdenRattlers on August 27, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Can someone tell me why the Democrats always have an advantage in the polls? Is that based on registered Democrats? Likely to vote or something else?

GadsdenRattlers on August 27, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Traditionally, Democrats have been able to rely on unions to get out the vote for them, giving them a slight turnout advantage. In recent years however, we’ve seen some evidence to suggest this may no longer be the case. In 2010 for example, Republicans matched democrats in turnout, despite a huge get out the vote effort on the part of unions. Similarly, during Scott Walkers recall election is Wisconsin, Republicans once again matched democrats, despite an even more concentrated attempt at getting out the vote.

I think this isn’t only a product of a disparity in enthusiasm, but the simple arithmetic of the declining power of unions. Private sector unions are seemingly dying off more and more quickly each passing year, and despite the push public sector union push democrats have managed the number of union members nation wide is still declining.

WolvenOne on August 27, 2012 at 1:21 PM

This election will be about the economy and jobs, taxes, and the federal budget.
but, what about the Almighty Uterus???

ted c on August 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

SEAMUS, RRD….!

Hat tip to Ed.

Tenwheeler on August 27, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Can someone tell me why the Democrats always have an advantage in the polls? Is that based on registered Democrats? Likely to vote or something else?

GadsdenRattlers on August 27, 2012 at 1:11 PM

outdated historical party affil stats (old D advantage pre-2000)
diff between reg vs likelies (always more +D reg than likely)
continuity bias, laziness
bias of the pollsters

t8stlikchkn on August 27, 2012 at 1:24 PM

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