Bay State Beatdown. Brown 49 – Warren 43

We all know the election of Scott Brown to the United States Senate from Massachusetts was an aberration, right? It was just one of those freak accidents… a perfect storm of a wild ride election cycle, a lucky – if very personable – Republican and a deeply flawed Democrat who didn’t give much thought to the race. And once the right Left thinking people of the Bay State had time to reflect on their error they would send the interloper packing and return the seat to its rightful Democratic owners. I mean, it couldn’t happen twice, could it?

A new poll of the Massachusetts Senate race shows Republican Scott Brown opening up a six-point lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren. Forty-nine percent of respondents support Brown, the incumbent running for reelection, while 43 percent support Warren. Nine percent are undecided.

The poll also found that independent voters in Massachusetts may be splitting their tickets between the parties in November, with 52 percent supporting Barack Obama in the presidential race and only 41 percent supporting MItt Romney. Romney was governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007.

That second paragraph is particularly telling in this case. Massachusetts Democrats were no doubt counting heavily on the effect of Barack Obama’s coattails. The last battle took place during the mid-terms which typically have a somewhat lower – and therefore more unpredictable – turnout model. And the senate race was pretty much the marquis event at the top of the ticket. This year, with Barack Obama’s name back on the ballot, Warren clearly thought his popularity in the state would help boost her prospects. If the voters are paying this much attention and are ready to do some ticket splitting, Warren could be in even more trouble.

Dr. Professor Jacobson thinks he knows why.

For the first time in their adult lives, the progressive movement is wondering out loud whether the “nice guy” Brown is beatable at all, and whether Warren is up to the task. Demands that Warren “nationalize” (how fitting a word!) the race are increasing.

Warren herself seems desperate to lash out on the war on women theme so much so that she is becoming a caricature.

All in all, there is a sense in the air that resembles what took place in early January 2010 when the political world collectively came to the realization that the Democrats had nominated a seriously flawed candidate, and were up against a guy with a unique political talent and ability to connect with the folks.

Make no mistake, Warren’s bizarre handling of her false claim to Native American ancestry has compounded if not caused the problem, as it revealed a personality defect which is not very becoming.

There are still too many undecideds and too long to go for us to call this one a done deal. But in a race which everyone knew could be a serious challenge for Scott Brown, he’s not looking all that vulnerable at the moment.

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