Rasmussen: Romney loses MO lead after Akin controversy

posted at 11:21 am on August 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

While Missouri is always a tough state for both parties in presidential elections, until recently Mitt Romney didn’t have much to worry about.  Rasmussen’s series of polls gave him a significant-if-not-quite-comfortable six-point margin in the Show Me State … at least until Todd Akin shared his views on the legitimacy of rape claims from pregnant victims.  In today’s Rasmussen poll, Romney now slightly trails Obama, 47/46:

As the controversy over Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comment continues, Mitt Romney’s lead in Missouri has vanished.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Missouri Voters finds President Obama with 47% support to Romney’s 46%. Three percent (3%) favor some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) more are undecided.

At the end of July, it was Romney by six and he has been ahead in Missouri all year.

Missouri now moves from Leans Romney to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

This actually is better than what I thought the initial reaction would be.  Even with this sudden shift a few days after the Akin controversy broke (the survey was taken on Wednesday), Obama only leads among women by seven points, 51/44, while Romney leads among men by the same amount.  The sample has a 56/44 split between women and men, respectively, which accounts for the difference — and that significantly overstates the strength of women in comparison to the 2010 exit poll for Missouri, which had it at 51/49.

Otherwise, this looks about the same as it did in July.  In fact, Romney’s favorability has slightly increased since then, from 49/49 to 51/47.  He’s actually improved even more among women in that measure, going from 44/54 to 50/49.  The same is true to a greater degree with independents, going from 48/50 to 58/36, a large improvement.  These are the two demos most likely to reflect damage on Romney’s candidacy, and so far they both look good.

In looking at it the other direction, there isn’t much corresponding improvement for Obama.  His job approval rating in July was 45/54, bouncing back a little this month to just 48/49 — but with 42% strongly disapproving, and only 26% strongly approving.  Among women, his approval rating didn’t change much at all, going from 52/47 to 53/45, while among independents, it went from 41/59 to a dismal 34/60.

I’m guessing that the overall shift in preference is an artifact of this poll coming so closely on the heels of the controversy, which gave respondents an opportunity to register their displeasure with Akin.  When the storm passes, as it will with the convention, the fundamentals of the candidates will once again take hold and push the race back to the pre-Akin status quo — a movement that would be enhanced by Akin’s departure, of course.


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Akin’s called a press conference in St. Louis this afternoon. Bowing out, finally. At least I think so.

sherry on August 24, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Right now turn-out is everything–and Akin is turning off Republicans and firing-up the Democrats.

writeblock on August 24, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Akin has shown doubly why he doesn’t deserve the nomination.

First he makes an incredibly outrageous statement that reveals a serious fault line in his mental faculty. This is not just a dumb statement, it is a flaw in critical reason, equal to being a charter member of the Flat Earth Society.

Second, he stays in the race, causing irreparable harm to the party and the nation.

If we lose the Senate and the Presidency because of this guy……..

itsspideyman on August 24, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Unnamed people are saying Akin will drop out in about 1 hour.

logman1 on August 24, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Unnamed people are saying Akin will drop out in about 1 hour.

logman1 on August 24, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Sounds like he is having a press conference for fundraising. His camp sent out a release saying he’s staying in. This guy has got nerve.

sherry on August 24, 2012 at 4:12 PM

believe there should have private talks with Akin and possibly conference calls. Instead we get hysterical calls for Akin to quit and one totally idiotic suggestion of a third party candidate. A messy internecine food fight and all on national TV. Romney already has the reputation of being an hysterical old woman dressed like a man. His panicky reaction of publicly calling Akin to quit only reinforces that image.

MaiDee on August 24, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Nobody called for Akin to drop down publicly in the first 24-36 hours. The first Romney statement and the only one for two days was a twitter from a campaign spokesperson expressing, in a very respectful way, Romney and Ryan’s disagreement with Akin and reaffirming the ticket’s position on abortion.

Stop trying to rewrite history, you freaks.

joana on August 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

believe there should have private talks with Akin and possibly conference calls. Instead we get hysterical calls for Akin to quit and one totally idiotic suggestion of a third party candidate. A messy internecine food fight and all on national TV. Romney already has the reputation of being an hysterical old woman dressed like a man. His panicky reaction of publicly calling Akin to quit only reinforces that image.

MaiDee on August 24, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Nobody called for Akin to drop down publicly in the first 24-36 hours. The first Romney statement and the only one for two days was a twitter from a campaign spokesperson expressing, in a very respectful way, Romney and Ryan’s disagreement with Akin and reaffirming the ticket’s position on abortion.

Stop trying to rewrite history, you freaks.

joana on August 24, 2012 at 4:21 PM

What do you expect from a dimwit who wrote that Romney is the hysterical type who acted in a panicky manner :)…The hilarious part being that he is the opposite of that, a restrained, calculated and less of an emotive politician…if that idiot ever paid attention and informed himself, he’d know that this is what people often repproach to romney, his so called inability to emote and connect with people, his cold, aloof cerebral attitude (as if there is something wrong this, it’s not like we need, some emotional freaks, but this is a different story) , well that in no way rhymes with hysterical or ‘panicky’ to me…methinks weirdos like the one above still think that mccain is running or something…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Just great.

WisCon on August 24, 2012 at 4:50 PM

I love the fact that so many of the same people who told social conservatives to swallow it when Romney got the nomination, who tell us that we should bend over and grab our ankles and get behind fiscons who throw our issues to the wind, now can’t seem to bring themselves to tell everyone to get behind the Republican.

Ahh, sweet principle.

Aside from that, apparently a lot more idiots in Mo. than I thought. Put the woman who voted for Obamacare in over a guy who can’t word things well.

Genius. Friggin genius.

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Akin to hold press conference at 5:15 EST:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/245387-akin-to-hold-press-conference-this-afternoon

Resist We Much on August 24, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Blimey, am I dreaming or what….could this be so….I almost fell off my chair…pls, whatever force or entity is out there, make it be true…that he calls the press conference to withdraw that is :)…maybe he is going to inform us that he had an epiphany the other day and god told him to get the f…out of there :)…or so I wish anyways…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I love the fact that so many of the same people who told social conservatives to swallow it when Romney got the nomination, who tell us that we should bend over and grab our ankles and get behind fiscons who throw our issues to the wind, now can’t seem to bring themselves to tell everyone to get behind the Republican.

Ahh, sweet principle.

Aside from that, apparently a lot more idiots in Mo. than I thought. Put the woman who voted for Obamacare in over a guy who can’t word things well.

Genius. Friggin genius.

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

How about you get behind this akin freak and leave the party altogether, create your own with likewise and likeminded individuals…do us all and yourselves a favour…this one time, pls! But make it for good…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Jimver

I really could care less what you think. Aside from that, it seems I touched a nerve.

Nutcase.

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

sorry,

I really couldN’T care less…

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Blimey, am I dreaming or what….could this be so….I almost fell off my chair…pls, whatever force or entity is out there, make it be true…that he calls the press conference to withdraw that is :)…maybe he is going to inform us that he had an epiphany the other day and god told him to get the f…out of there :)…or so I wish anyways…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

He is digging in. I just listened to his PC. The radio hosts are dumbfounded.

tom daschle concerned on August 24, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Blimey, am I dreaming or what….could this be so….I almost fell off my chair…pls, whatever force or entity is out there, make it be true…that he calls the press conference to withdraw that is :)…maybe he is going to inform us that he had an epiphany the other day and god told him to get the f…out of there :)…or so I wish anyways…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

He is digging in. I just listened to his PC. The radio hosts are dumbfounded.

tom daschle concerned on August 24, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Oh, I know, I know…just I said, my wishful thinking portion for today :)…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 5:30 PM

This Akin guy is even dumber than I thought. He holds a press conference to announce… wait for it… THE STATUS QUO. WTF? What part of NEW in NEWS does he not understand?

MrX on August 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Jimver

I really could care less what you think. Aside from that, it seems I touched a nerve.

Nutcase.

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Yeah, you touched my gluteal nerve :)….as for nycase, kind of funny coming from the freak faction of the party that is known for exactly that :)…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 5:33 PM

This Akin guy is even dumber than I thought. He holds a press conference to announce… wait for it… THE STATUS QUO. WTF? What part of NEW in NEWS does he not understand?

MrX on August 24, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Exactly, draw more attention to the freak show…wonder if huckster is going to be behind him, for moral support, and I mean physically so :)…the idiot probably he thinks he can pulls a murkowski :)…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Nutcase not nycasethat is….

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Nothing worse than arrogance coupled with parochial ignorance. That goes for Huckabee as well.

writeblock on August 24, 2012 at 5:38 PM

like i said last night, the pro-life fringe believes Life is number one. All else is secondary

i don’t think that MO knew this guy was a fringe candidate…and regrettable the MOGOP has no way of vetting people

Leftists got their dream. R voters may stay home

i mean, really, why vote for a fruitcake party that has stupid fringe people running around making themselves and the state look like 1850

r keller on August 24, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Honestly…does anyone take Rasmussen’s polls at face value?? Scott R. is an honored guest at the NATIONAL REVIEW cruise, his company finished dead last in Nate Silver’s accuracy survey following the 2010 elections etc.. Whenever the GOP elite needs good talking points supporting their agenda, Rasmussen delivers. In this case, The Party wants go get rid of Akin, replacing him with a reliable candidate aligned with the Romney-Bush Wall Street agenda,

MARCU$

mlindroo on August 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

This exposes a fault-line that has always existed in the GOP. The Huckabee bloc has always been as arrogant as it is indifferent to political reality.

writeblock on August 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

This exposes a fault-line that has always existed in the GOP. The Huckabee bloc has always been as arrogant as it is indifferent to political reality.

writeblock on August 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

As have the Losertarian bloc. The ugly news is the Rs don’t win without either.

Steve Eggleston on August 24, 2012 at 6:20 PM

This exposes a fault-line that has always existed in the GOP. The Huckabee bloc has always been as arrogant as it is indifferent to political reality.

writeblock on August 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Kinda funny when you think how they always like to bash the so called RINOs…the only difference being that the RINOs are rational, flexible and intelligent people and understand the stakes in matters of this magnitude..these idiots never will…

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 6:24 PM

love the fact that so many of the same people who told social conservatives to swallow it when Romney got the nomination, who tell us that we should bend over and grab our ankles and get behind fiscons who throw our issues to the wind, now can’t seem to bring themselves to tell everyone to get behind the Republican.

Ahh, sweet principle.

Aside from that, apparently a lot more idiots in Mo. than I thought. Put the woman who voted for Obamacare in over a guy who can’t word things well.

Genius. Friggin genius.

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Please read Coulter’s and Malkin’s columns on how allowing a rabid psychotic such as Akin to make public statements saying that women can’t get pregnant through rape as a representative of the pro-life movement/Republican party, does irrepairable damage to the pro-life cause and any associated politicians or parties. Support Akin and put the pro-life movement back to the days of Roe v. Wade. Akin’s comments show him to be delusional, stupid, miseducated, divorced from reality, superstitious, misogynistic … Need I go on?

Having an idiot like that associated with the prolife movement makes it impossible to discuss the issue with someone who is not pro-life because as soon as you start to talk about it the undecided person assumes you’re just as stupid, etc as Akin-a person who thinks women can’t get pregnant if they are raped. You have no credibility. Pro-lifers are irrational, ignorant, backwards fools by association. It would be better to lose this seat than to paint the whole Pro-life movement/Republican party with the same brush.

If Akin can’t be replaced on the ticket, he must be shunned.

talkingpoints on August 24, 2012 at 6:24 PM

This exposes a fault-line that has always existed in the GOP. The Huckabee bloc has always been as arrogant as it is indifferent to political reality.

writeblock on August 24, 2012 at 5:54 PM

As have the Losertarian bloc. The ugly news is the Rs don’t win without either.

Steve Eggleston on August 24, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Sadly…but that goes for them too..they won’t either, eithout the rational faction of the party…if there’s any shadenfreude, that’s it :)..

jimver on August 24, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Can NO one get rid of this buffoon? Offer him a cash settlement? :-)

AnnaS on August 24, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Can NO one get rid of this buffoon? Offer him a cash settlement? :-)

AnnaS on August 24, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Maybe he already has one from the democratics.

slickwillie2001 on August 24, 2012 at 7:04 PM

talkingpoints

What Akin said about not getting pregnant during rape was stupid. Very stupid.

Just as stupid is to pretend that when he put the word ‘legitimate’ in front of ‘rape’, that he was implying somehow that some rape was okay. Lots of false outrage from the left, who will take political advantage of a change in wind direction. If not Akin, something else. Lots of disingenuous outrage from the right, which having failed by accepting and using the lexicon of the left (everything from ‘gay’ to ‘women’s issues’) is validating every BS notion about rape, abortion and women’s issues ever spewed by the left.

Even stupider than any of that is to put Clare McCaskill, who voted for a bill that not only gave viagra to pedophiles and other sex offenders, but forces taxpayers to pay for abortion, in office because of a stupid (extremely stupid) slip of the tongue by her opponent.

That is stupidity beyond belief.

avgjo on August 24, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Straight to hell and take his backwoods bible thumping idiots with him

His comment gives Christians a bad name. I for one am sick of the bible thumpers. FORM your own damned party. Get the HELL out of MINE

Redford on August 24, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Who died and made it your party?

RationalIcthus on August 25, 2012 at 2:55 AM

talkingpoints… why is it that none of the “Pundits” seem willing to take Akin’s apology at his word?

Please read Coulter’s and Malkin’s columns on how allowing a rabid psychotic such as Akin to make public statements saying that women can’t get pregnant through rape as a representative of the pro-life movement/Republican party, does irrepairable damage to the pro-life cause and any associated politicians or parties. Support Akin and put the pro-life movement back to the days of Roe v. Wade. Akin’s comments show him to be delusional, stupid, miseducated, divorced from reality, superstitious, misogynistic … Need I go on?

I mean, hell, let’s just take our Pundits word for everything.. and not LOOK at his voting record, shall we? It’s not like it’s hidden where we can’t find it!

Just on the Abortion vote:

Planned Parenthood – Positions 0% (Has always been 0)
NARAL Pro-Choice America – Positions 0%%
National Right to Life Committee – Positions 100%
(had one year 03-04, where he came in at 91%)
National Family Planning & Reproductive Health Association – House of Representatives Score 0%

Actual votes taken

Oh noes, its just more important that a misstatement means so much more than how he ACTUALLY VOTES!!!

Maybe if the pundits would like, ASK him to explain himself instead of just putting labels on him… (Hell, at least Hannity did that (and you can argue Akin blew that interview as well)).

And to think that Malkin is jumping in on this is just shameful, considering how many times she’s blasted the alphabet soup media for not following up controversial questions/comments.

DaSaintFan on August 27, 2012 at 7:10 AM

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