Poll of likely voters: Obama leads by two, likability advantage almost gone

posted at 5:39 pm on August 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

The good news? This is right in line with yesterday’s Fox News poll of likely voters. There Romney led by one, here The One leads by two. Doesn’t matter; both are within the margin of error. Bottom line is that we have a toss-up on the eve of the election, with Romney just three days away from finally being able to tap his huge treasury of general-election funds. Even better, according to CNN’s data, Obama’s attacks ads haven’t done much to hurt him. Mitt’s net favorable rating is now +4 among likely voters while Obama stands at just +5, the second time today that a major poll has shown the “likability gap” between the two shrinking. My read on that is the same as Ace’s — as more people tilt towards Romney on the merits, it’s only natural that they’ll start to view Obama less favorably and the likability gap will close. The reverse is also possible, that O’s attack ads are backfiring on him and his decline in likability is driving Romney’s improvement in the polls. But if that’s the case, how to explain the non-decline among registered voters?

Among registereds, O’s numbers are almost identical now to what they were five months ago, before all the negative campaigning began. The real explanation for the closing of the likability gap among likely voters, it seems, is simply that that sample is more Republican than the sample of registered voters. His job approval lately among registereds looks pretty good too compared to where it used to be not long ago:

Put it all together and you find that Obama’s actually holding up pretty well with registered voters, enough so to keep him on top head to head against Mitt notwithstanding a strong Republican sample among likely voters:

As for Akin-gate, this trendline on abortion is intriguing but I’m not sure what it proves given that the most recent poll before this was taken almost a year ago. Did these numbers surge just in the past week or did they surge over the last several months, possibly in response to the Democrats’ “war on women” messaging?

Usually there’s not much of a gender gap in abortion polls, but there’s one here:

Fully 83 percent say abortion should be legal in cases of rape or incest, which explains why Debbie Wasserman-Schultz was being even more robotic than usual last night on CNN in trying to impute Todd Akin’s position to Mitt.

Exit question for poll watchers: At the top of page five of the crosstabs, preceding certain questions about voter enthusiasm, CNN says it sampled 404 registered Democrats and … 473 registered Republicans. They never specify the partisan breakdown in the total sample, but they do say on the cover sheet that the total sample is based on interviews with 1,055 adults and 924 registered voters. Which means, unless I’m misunderstanding something, that Republicans were a majority of their sample of registered voters. Er, isn’t that highly unusual in a national poll?


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Why so serious?

faraway on August 24, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Get back to me when they register intelligent likely voters. Romney +80.

hillsoftx on August 24, 2012 at 5:42 PM

That photo is demonic.

Schadenfreude on August 24, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Bottom line is that we have a toss-up on the eve of the election, with Romney just three days away from finally being able to tap his huge treasury of general-election funds.

Think you meant convention, not election.

Red Cloud on August 24, 2012 at 5:43 PM

How in God’s green earth can anyone find bho or for that matter mo, ‘likable’? What is to like about those two? A chapped off rattlesnake at least lets you know when it is going to bite, and you do not dare pet it!
L

letget on August 24, 2012 at 5:44 PM

That’s pretty impressive considering he hasn’t made his convention speech yet and the media basically hates him.

Where was Romney today? This is another good crowd.
http://twitpic.com/an85bx

gophergirl on August 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Bottom line is that we have a toss-up on the eve of the election, with Romney just three days away from finally being able to tap his huge treasury of general-election funds

We’re all going to see what a real moneybomb looks like. Barry, were you watching what happened to Newt?

a capella on August 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

PT
Moron’s news confernce

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/08/breaking-akin-is-staying-in/

They asked Todd Akin supporters to stand up front to show support. Six people stood up.

It is so pathetic that it would have been funny if the future of the country, the economy, repeal of ObamaCare are not at stake.

bayview on August 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

There comes a time when people realize that a Chicago thug is…..a thug.

d1carter on August 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I think Dick Morris mentioned that any incumbent tied with a challenger this far ahead of election day ends up a L O S E R…..

u sad bro?

ted c on August 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

The “illegal under all circumstances” crowd on the right are clearly politically deaf.

idiots like Aiken should keep that extreme view under wraps and work towards short term advances against the progressive onslaught.

However, they are too busy committing political suicide via moral preening.

rickyricardo on August 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

They asked Todd Akin supporters to stand up front to show support. Six people stood up.

It is so pathetic that it would have been funny if the future of the country, the economy, repeal of ObamaCare are not at stake.

bayview on August 24, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Probably McCaskill’s campaign staff.

a capella on August 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

“… with Romney just three days away from finally being able to tap his huge treasury of general-election funds.”

You may fire when ready, Commander…

Seven Percent Solution on August 24, 2012 at 5:48 PM

My read on that is the same as Ace’s — as more people tilt towards Romney on the merits, it’s only natural that they’ll start to view Obama less favorably and the likability gap will close. The reverse is also possible, that O’s attack ads are backfiring on him and his decline in likability is driving Romney’s improvement in the polls

Maybe people are just getting sick of Obama. I know I am. When he comes on TV I mute it. I never did that before with any president. That is the thing about Obama’s need to be constantly in your face, to be everywhere to run everything. After awhile, people might just wish he would go away.

Terrye on August 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM

It makes me cringe to see that 51-55% of of my fellow Americans find this clown “likeable.”

It’s akin to liking Scar, the despot uncle in The Lion King.

When I hear Obama on TV, it makes my skin crawl… and not in a “Tingles” sort of way.

VastRightWingConspirator on August 24, 2012 at 5:50 PM

If Obama is leading 52-43 among registered voters, but only 49-47 among likely voters, what are the D/R/I splits of each group?

Methinks the Republicans are more likely to vote…

Steve Z on August 24, 2012 at 5:51 PM

That photo is demonic.

As is the other one that is posted here on bho! That man is evil, pure and simple!

I have to say, I ha!e evil, and by golly bho you are on my list!
L

letget on August 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

The only annoying thing about Obama losing this November is we are going to hear the term “Bradley Obama effect” in politics for the next 50 years.

portlandon on August 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Nice reporting and punditry. Very insightful. And I think you are right rMoney is getting liked a lot!

Take a stroll down to the bald avenger’s post on the Gallup poll. Might make you reconsider how much you know about politics.

tommyhawk on August 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Terrye on August 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Yep, me too. I don’t like people who constantly insult my intelligence by lying to me when I know they are lying.

d1carter on August 24, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Nice reporting and punditry. Very insightful. And I think you are right rMoney is getting liked a lot!

Take a stroll down to the bald avenger’s post on the Gallup poll. Might make you reconsider how much you know about politics.

tommyhawk on August 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

CNN:

According to the poll, 50% of likely voters see Romney in a favorable way, with 46% saying they see him in an unfavorable light. Fifty-two percent say they have a favorable opinion of the president, with 47% saying the see him in an unfavorable way.

Back at ya, d-bag.

Chuck Schick on August 24, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Anyone going to go see that 2016 movie this weekend?

I wasn’t planning on it, but Neal Boortz has been raving about it for the last two days, and it sounds like he was equally skeptical of it just being an anti-Obama propaganda film going into it too.

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

We’re all going to see what a real moneybomb looks like. Barry, were you watching what happened to Newt?

a capella on August 24, 2012 at 5:45 PM

That’s what Romney does. I can’t wait to see how Obama deals with constant attacks. He usually doesn’t handle criticism well.

Curtiss on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

The only annoying thing about Obama losing this November is we are going to hear the term “Bradley Obama effect” in politics for the next 50 years.

portlandon on August 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

..another downside for me is the possibility of DAYS elapsing between HG visits instead of my usual minutes.

The War Planner on August 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

The only annoying thing about Obama losing this November is we are going to hear the term “Bradley Obama effect” in politics for the next 50 years.

portlandon on August 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM

And that’s all the excuse Dems will need to avoid ever nominating another for national office.

de rigueur on August 24, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Look at the CNN poll and the difference between LV and RV (same group, just selecting to sort out RV vs LV)

When LV is used it was Barry 49, Romney 47
When RV is used it was Barry 52, Romney 43

The difference between RV and LV is 7 points. That is why most RV polls are worthless.

bayview on August 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM

I wasn’t planning on it, but Neal Boortz has been raving about it for the last two days, and it sounds like he was equally skeptical of it just being an anti-Obama propaganda film going into it too.

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

..another programming note: I think Hannity’s going to show that movie tonight that they were going to feature at the convention in Tampa.

The War Planner on August 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM

tommyhawk on August 24, 2012 at 5:53 PM

All he’s got left is to attack Iran. Oh, and, release our Strategic Petroleum Reserves. What irony that the next unemployment figures come out the day after he accepts the nomination. Man, talk about stepping on a convention bounce!

a capella on August 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Not only Boortz, but Beck, and Rush. It is to be an eye-opening view on bho most don’t know? I just hope it does help people get some information on bho they didn’t know because of not vetting last time or now?
L

letget on August 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

That photo is demonic.

Schadenfreude on August 24, 2012 at 5:43 PM

If a picture is worth 1000 words, his likeability should be none.

athenadelphi on August 24, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I have never understood it. Why do people like Obama. There isn’t anything Likable about him that I see, and less his wife.

Are some people just disposed to liking him for.. well let’s say it.. is color, whether or not he has actually ever DONE anything before this? I just don’t get it.

Noelie on August 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Romney will likely win in November if someone can dump Akin in the middle of the ocean. How anyone who calls themselves conservative can back that misogynist whack job coward is almost unbelievable.

Conservatives should be for truth and for the sincere search for truth. When someone uses the mask of pseudo-science, it is not a truthful approach, whether it be someone arguing for the existence of global warming or how a woman can or can’t get pregnant from rape. If Akin believes from a moral standpoint that no pregnancy should be aborted, without exception, he should have the courage to argue from a moral standpoint, because that is where his argument originates. To back-end his argument with phony science is dishonest. The scientific method does not start with a forgone conclusion and then a search for evidence to support an agenda. We call out global warmists with their use of this faux scientific approach..and if we are truthful and consistent, we need to call out people, even those on “our side” who indulge is such rubbish.

VorDaj on August 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

a capella on August 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

You forgot student loan forgiveness, Mortgage forgiveness, free GM cars (have to clear the inventory somehow), and “spending a night of passion with BJ “.

bayview on August 24, 2012 at 6:08 PM

The “illegal under all circumstances” crowd on the right are clearly politically deaf.

rickyricardo on August 24, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Don’t assume that “pro-life regardless of circumstance” equates with “supports Akin.” If he needs to go, he should go.

As for views on abortion, you may be right that we’re politically deaf, but at least we’re not party to murder. I’ll take that trade off any day of the week.

RationalIcthus on August 24, 2012 at 6:09 PM

People are afraid they’ll be seen as racist if they say they don’t like him.

A lot of people will vote for him again simply because he’s black.

Just the way it is.

B Man on August 24, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Not only Boortz, but Beck, and Rush. It is to be an eye-opening view on bho most don’t know? I just hope it does help people get some information on bho they didn’t know because of not vetting last time or now?
L

letget on August 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Went to the last movie that was politically/economically ‘themed’ and there was 10 people in the theater. Those that are inclined to see the movie will see it but you won’t get the average person to go watch it. They want to see action and explosions or a chick flick for their $14 per ticket. The dumbing down of America? No, just the tuning out.

athenadelphi on August 24, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Romney will likely win in November if someone can dump Akin in the middle of the ocean. How anyone who calls themselves conservative can back that misogynist whack job coward is almost unbelievable.

Conservatives should be for truth and for the sincere search for truth. When someone uses the mask of pseudo-science, it is not a truthful approach, whether it be someone arguing for the existence of global warming or how a woman can or can’t get pregnant from rape. If Akin believes from a moral standpoint that no pregnancy should be aborted, without exception, he should have the courage to argue from a moral standpoint, because that is where his argument originates. To back-end his argument with phony science is dishonest. The scientific method does not start with a forgone conclusion and then a search for evidence to support an agenda. We call out global warmists with their use of this faux scientific approach..and if we are truthful and consistent, we need to call out people, even those on “our side” who indulge is such rubbish.

VorDaj on August 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

This, although we should probably toss a life ring and a couple of water bottles his way. (I am pro-life after all).

I am absolutely, 100% pro-life in every circumstance. That said, the argument against abortion should (and easily can) stand on its own merits.

RationalIcthus on August 24, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The difference between RV and LV is 7 points. That is why most RV polls are worthless.

bayview on August 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM

RCP average over past 2-3 weeks has transitioned to majority LV for the first time. Obama’s collapsing and Romney is surging:

RCP

Chuck Schick on August 24, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Results.

Gas Prices, doubled since he’s been in office (and consistently more expensive, not just a 2 or 3 month spike).

Unemployment, 7,000 months of Unemployment over 8%.

Debt. Record high

Deficits. Record high

Futures for our children and grandchildren: Gloomy

Plans for a 2nd term? More of the same plans that didn’t work for 3 1/2 years.

ObamaCare: STOLE FROM MEDICARE $716 BILLION.

…………..and on and on and on.

PappyD61 on August 24, 2012 at 6:16 PM

letget on August 24, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Yeah, I just hope its entertaining and Hannity, Boortz, Rush, et. al. aren’t just hyping it to boost its ticket sales and get more people interested and informed.

I’ve been paying attention the last four years, so I don’t need to be brought up to speed on how Obama is wrecking the country. I’m hoping its entertaining and based in reality, and not just a conservative version of Fahrenheit 9/11. Boortz was swearing up and down that its not just an anti-Obama hit piece, so I’ll give it a try.

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 6:17 PM

On another subject: Ex-NY Jets and Oakland Raiders safety advocates NOT voting for Obama:

http://www.spreecast.com/events/ex-nfl-great-to-blacks-say-no-to-obama/embed-medium

The War Planner on August 24, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Likeable? Disgusting is more like it,. Seriously, would you want to have a beer with him and have to listen to him talk about how wonderful he is and how lucky you are to be in his presence? Me? I loathe him.

natasha333 on August 24, 2012 at 6:18 PM

VorDaj on August 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

you, me and a few others seem to be lonely posters of rationality on this subject.
*sigh*
so be it.

athenadelphi on August 24, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Rush, the other day, said Dr. Sowell, told him, he had to drive about 30 miles to see the movie. They would not show it where he lives, and he sat in the balcomy on the steps to see the movie. So it must be something to see?

I don’t see all posts, but hope if you go see it, you will give your view!
L

letget on August 24, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Conservatives should be for truth and for the sincere search for truth. When someone uses the mask of pseudo-science, it is not a truthful approach, whether it be someone arguing for the existence of global warming or how a woman can or can’t get pregnant from rape. If Akin believes from a moral standpoint that no pregnancy should be aborted, without exception, he should have the courage to argue from a moral standpoint, because that is where his argument originates. To back-end his argument with phony science is dishonest. The scientific method does not start with a forgone conclusion and then a search for evidence to support an agenda. We call out global warmists with their use of this faux scientific approach..and if we are truthful and consistent, we need to call out people, even those on “our side” who indulge is such rubbish.

VorDaj on August 24, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Hey, look! An arguement in search of a disagreement!

And damn unlikely to find one.

nico on August 24, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Romney actually leads 48.7 to 40.5. When we take current enthusiasm into account and apply that to likely turnout, that’s what I get averaging the 4 most recent polls that give the party affiliation breakdown cross referenced to candidate selection. Right now we are at R+ 6.5. That will change as we get closer to the election and both parties voters become more enthusiastic.

NotCoach on August 24, 2012 at 6:29 PM

As far as I am concerned,Obama ranks somewhere between toejam and a raging case of hives.

pilamaye on August 24, 2012 at 6:30 PM

fox news special alert…

ann romney will be on tues switching with susanna martinez

cmsinaz on August 24, 2012 at 6:32 PM

letget on August 24, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Yep, I’ll definitely let you guys know how it is. I’m hoping that somebody here has already seen it though and can either save me $10, or tell me its worth it.

Lawdawg86 on August 24, 2012 at 6:33 PM

@6:24,
I should have added, there was so many people there, that is why Dr. Sowell sat in the balcony. I do not recall if Rush said if Dr. Sowell gave his view on the movie.
L

letget on August 24, 2012 at 6:33 PM

FIRST BOX OFFICE: Anti-Obama Movie #1

http://www.deadline.com/2012/08/first-box-office-anti-obama-movie-1/

Resist We Much on August 24, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Frankly, I don’t trust CNN/ORC polls. I’ve seen them put out far too many polls that undersampled independents, and they were typically quite a bit off during most the primaries they bothered to poll.

That said, there are numbers here I like. The only number I dislike is the lower-than average lead Romney has with independents amongst this poll. Usually he leads among independents by ten or higher, and in this poll he leads by considerably less.

Again, seeing as CNN/ORC has had a history of undersampling independents, it may just be statistical noise.

For the record.

Pollsters I do not trust

PEW
CNN/Orc
NBC
New York Times
Wall Street Journal

There are a couple others, but I haven’t seen them pop up yet this election cycle. Notably, Newsweek is no longer doing polls, which is good. They had a tendency in previous elections to overshoot democratic support by double digits.

WolvenOne on August 24, 2012 at 6:45 PM

portlandon on August 24, 2012 at 5:52 PM
In exchange for him losing, I will gladly take that punishment!

txmomof6 on August 24, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Time for another war… syria looks promising. A “quantitative easing” with lots of freebies to the less fortunate probably would also help popularity.

When all else fails just do a stimulus and hand out lots of money to dems. That will always work.

acyl72 on August 24, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Me being in Ohio, I gotta say I haven’t heard anyone call Bari likable, a few other choose words, but likable isn’t one of them………..

angrymike on August 24, 2012 at 7:00 PM

@gophergirl I’m in that picture! It’s my new wallpaper on my phone.

Russell28 on August 24, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Me being in Ohio, I gotta say I haven’t heard anyone call Bari likable, a few other choose words, but likable isn’t one of them………..

angrymike on August 24, 2012 at 7:00 PM

…quit spelling ‘Oiho’ wrong Mikey…or JugEars will make you listen to the Village People and you will have to do…Y M C A…UNTIL YOU GET IT RIGHT!

KOOLAID2 on August 24, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Hey Obama SuperPAC: more “Romney killed my wife with cancer” ads please!!

Khun Joe on August 24, 2012 at 7:56 PM

When was Turdboy ever likeable?
What was ever likeable about him?
Who said that he was likeable?

Inquiring minds want to know.

MisterElephant on August 24, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Yes, the registered Republicans outnumbered the registered Democrats in this sample pretty heavily. It also reported a slight advantage to the Republicans in enthusiasm for registered voters. And yet, when it came to ‘likely voters’ they reported (on page 20 of the crosstabs):

Obama led with Dems 94 vs 4 for Romney
Romney led with Reps 93 vs 6 for Obama
ROMNEY led with independents 48 to 45

… and the percentages of the above groups somehow led to an overall Obama lead of 49-47. This is, of course, impossible unless they put a big thumb on the scale for the Democrats vs their actual sample.

Texastoast on August 24, 2012 at 9:00 PM

It’s astounding that there are so many stupid people in this country. All left wingers too, coincidence?

Wolfmoon on August 24, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Numbers, shmumbers.

I just want to have my camera ready when Axelrod goes supernova.

dissent555 on August 25, 2012 at 12:19 AM

These numbers don’t even take into account the “Wisconsin Effect”…Independents deliberately placating pollsters and then voting conservative.

Afterseven on August 25, 2012 at 1:08 AM

Worthless without knowing the reweight.

TallDave on August 25, 2012 at 1:13 AM

We’re all looking toward the Republican convention and it’s going to be a great one. But let’s look for a second beyond the Republican convention to the Democrat one. It is going to be a total letdown. The takers and fakers can’t pretend this time around like last time. When people see that the dhimmicrat fiesta is over this time around we’re going to have R&R wave. i might watch the dhimmicrats this time just for the fun of it.

Mojave Mark on August 25, 2012 at 4:52 AM