Rasmussen’s MO poll: McCaskill 48, Akin … 38
posted at 11:21 am on August 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
You knew this was coming, right? Oh, our Akin electoral hopes for Republican control of the Senate:
What a difference one TV interview can make. Embattled Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill has now jumped to a 10-point lead over her Republican challenger, Congressman Todd Akin, in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race. Most Missouri Republicans want Akin to quit the race while most Missouri Democrats want him to stay.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Show Me State finds McCaskill earning 48% support to Akin’s 38%. Nine percent (9%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Don’t forget that Rasmussen had Akin edging McCaskill by three before the primary — the weakest of the three Republican candidates, but still a formidable challenger to the Democratic incumbent. Another pollster had Akin up by ten before the Republican nominee offered up his disastrous analysis of rape-repelling uteri and questioning whether a pregnant woman could legitimately claim she’d been raped. Not surprisingly, more than a few Missouri voters found this nonsense to be disqualifying.
However, let’s not be too rash. A number of Missouri voters want Akin to stay in the race. Hey, they’re mostly Democrats, but at this point, Akin can’t afford to be choosy:
Forty-one percent (41%) say Akin should withdraw from the campaign and have Republicans select another candidate to run against McCaskill. But just as many (42%) disagree and say Akin should not quit the race. The partisan divide reveals voter understanding of the underlying dynamics. Most Republicans (53%) think he should quit; most Democrats (56%) do not, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.
Amazingly, the internals actually look a little better for Akin than one might expect. Independents split between Akin and McCaskill, 39/39, despite Akin’s faux pas. Akin has a one-point lead among men (45/44), but unsurprisingly gets buried among women, 32/52. There is some support for the argument that this is as bad as it gets, with 93% having followed the Akin controversy either very or somewhat closely. On the other hand, Akin’s favorability has cratered to 35/63, which makes it difficult to argue that he’s going to pick up much more than 38% of the vote, at least where the race stands now.
Claire McCaskill is undoubtedly doing a happy dance with this poll, but this isn’t good news for her, either. Despite being the other binary choice in a race against someone who questioned the legitimacy of rape victims, McCaskill only gets 48% — not even a majority. Her favorability rating is a zero, 48/48, with almost twice as many people rating her very unfavorable as very favorable (19/36). While she has solidified Democratic support (96%) against Akin, drawing only 39% of independents in a two-way race with Akin on the ticket is a stunningly bad performance. This shows just how much Republicans might gain if Akin can get out of the way and allow a better candidate to square off against a clearly unimpressive incumbent.
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You seem to hold more against the socons helping this guy than the Dems who are doing the very same thing.
changer1701 on August 23, 2012 at 2:38 PM
Have you ever seen me bashing religion? Or in any of those religious related topics? I’m a conservative Catholic myself.
If there are anti-religious people that has nothing to do with this case.
If you don’t want them to take advantage of this Akin affair, maybe you should pressure some SoCon leaders to react differently.
Now Huckabee has said Akin should remain in the race and that if he loses it’s not his fault because he apologized.
Let me ask you something: are there any dumb Social Conservatives that should be bashed? Yes or no?
joana on August 23, 2012 at 2:40 PM
There it is.
AllahsNippleHair on August 23, 2012 at 2:41 PM
Don’t tell his heart
His breakin’ Akin heart
I just don’t think he’ll understand
Don’t tell his heart
His breakin’ Akin heart
It might blow up and kill this man…
:P
Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on August 23, 2012 at 2:41 PM
The Dems are the other side – I’d do the same thing if I were them! These crazies who are helping him are supposed to be on our side.
joana on August 23, 2012 at 2:42 PM
It’s White Coat time. Achin’ is certifiable. He sees a 10-point deficit as not only good news but cause for McCasket to drop out?
BTW, anyone see who issued that statement? Perry Akin. Dude’s son. Someone seriously needs to pull Todd aside and explain to him that he’s going to go down in a humiliating defeat. And believe me, when his numbers sink even further(and they will), the handful of evangelical groups who claim to be standing by his side at the moment will be nowhere to be found.
Doughboy on August 23, 2012 at 2:42 PM
Suckabee’s going all-in for Akin.
Huckabee digs in
KingGold on August 23, 2012 at 2:42 PM
Huckabee is not a Social Conservative leader. He’s a Fox News member that is called a SoCon by people who want to bash Social Conservatives. I didn’t support him in 2008 because he’s a big government statist. Social Conservatives only have their church and local communities that affect them. We aren’t a monolith.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 2:46 PM
Well, joana, if you have such a big problem with big government, why do you support Romney with his Romneycare or Paul Ryan who supported Medicare Part D, TARP, the auto bailout, etc.? What really bothers you is the religious conservatives in the party. You’ve pretty much outed yourself in that regard.
KickandSwimMom on August 23, 2012 at 2:47 PM
You didn’t answer my question.
joana on August 23, 2012 at 2:47 PM
He was probably on the Huckster’s VP short list back in 2008.
farsighted on August 23, 2012 at 2:49 PM
Agreed. I cannot stand Huckabee and never supported him.
KickandSwimMom on August 23, 2012 at 2:51 PM
Nope, not religion specifically. But yes, I’ve seen you bash people of faith in general and agree with those that do so.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 2:51 PM
Exactly right. I wasn’t thrilled with our choices in the primary. None of those with a shot of winning were truly small government types. When she says she isn’t against religion she is full of shite.
NotCoach on August 23, 2012 at 2:52 PM
As for dumb social conservatives, I’ve had no problem bashing Akin by staying on the issues. The man is politically toxic and should drop out. By him staying in it only shows his vanity, his pride, his arrogance.
But people aren’t staying on him. They’re generalizing towards all people of faith, all social conservatives or they’re putting horrid words into the man’s mouth that he never said.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 2:54 PM
Because Romney was the least bad candidate. I wouldn’t have supported him if I had better options. And once Akin won the primary, I started supporting him too – I always support the GOP candidate until they become totally unacceptable. My favourite politician is Tom Coburn, who isn’t exactly a godless libertarian.
You’re just a paranoiac nutjobs who sees my attack on the crazy fringe and Akin as attacks on religion – just like Akin. Stop calling me anti-religion: people in my parish would certainly find it surprising that a god-hating atheist had been teaching at their CCD classes for 4 years. Time to leave that insulated bubble you, Akin and your ilk live in, dear: you and your idiotic, ignorant beliefs, don’t represent Christianity or religion.
joana on August 23, 2012 at 2:56 PM
Not me. I’ve consistently made the distinction between social conservatives and the fringe crazy groups who support nutjobs like Akin. I even call them out by name.
I only see people like Akin, KickandSwimMom, Cindy Mundford and the likes doing that trick: of pretending attacks on them are attacks on all social conservatives.
joana on August 23, 2012 at 2:58 PM
More like this stupid:
Or this:
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 2:59 PM
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 2:54 PM
Agreed. What really disgusts me is how the GOP has gone ballistic on this guy in a very personal way. Why the hell could they not have met with him in private and cut a deal BEFORE their minions and operatives trashed him publicly? Why can’t the guy save some face so he can exit in a dignified way? I don’t care how much people disagree with him, the way he is being vilified is totally unacceptable for the GOP. Thank God I don’t consider myself a republican because they are the worst for taking down their own. I hope a conservative party develops soon because I cannot stand both of these main parties and having to choose the least bad option every presidential election is getting very old.
KickandSwimMom on August 23, 2012 at 3:01 PM
Huckabee can always go to hell, now in particular.
Missouri deserves better.
Schadenfreude on August 23, 2012 at 3:03 PM
Yup. That seems to be what’s going on with the SoLibs here. I’m not changing my views on abortion for ANY political party EVER. Akin was a idiot. I was on this board, on the first thread, as a God fearing SOCON, saying he had to go. If they want to make this about softening the pro-life stance of the Rs then they’ll do more legitimate damage then Akin could ever do.
BoxHead1 on August 23, 2012 at 3:04 PM
Wow–very charitable comments from a supposed conservative Catholic Sunday school teacher. I hope you attend Mass daily–you need it.
KickandSwimMom on August 23, 2012 at 3:04 PM
Uh oh! Fox fight!
a capella on August 23, 2012 at 3:05 PM
Due to the time difference I haven’t been able to follow all of all of the threads, but it seems you’re being misunderstood as attacking social conservatives in general. It seems in fact you’re simply saying that a small, politically inept extreme fraction of social conservatives often behave in ways that are counterproductive to our overall goals. Am I understanding correctly?
DarkCurrent on August 23, 2012 at 3:07 PM
Jeffrey Lord brings this up over at TAS:
Excellent article: http://spectator.org/archives/2012/08/23/bill-clinton-and-legitimate-ra
Resist We Much on August 23, 2012 at 3:08 PM
You need to check with HA poster, hawkdriver. He is a member of a newly formed Conservative Party, I believe.
a capella on August 23, 2012 at 3:09 PM
Jimver,
Steveangell is over the top in a ton of his posts. I’m not sure where he truly stands.
As for what RobertE said, I don’t know if he’s wrong. I think Akin’s a dead duck, but if the Republican party cannot convince him to drop out or get a viable write in alternative, people should still vote for Akin ahead of McCaskill. Can you claim otherwise?
How does that make RobertE stupid?
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:09 PM
Thanks for that info. Hawkdriver is a great poster here on HotAir.
KickandSwimMom on August 23, 2012 at 3:11 PM
I agree in part and disagree in part. There was a 24 hour period before Republicans started sounding off on Akin. He might have been called and told how toxic his statements were and how the media would use them to bring down his campaign and the Republican party in general.
I also understand the Republican establishment going nuclear on him to mitigate the damage to the rest of them. We know Obama and his radical lefties are going to use a scorched earth campaign to stay in office and do not care what lies or half-truths they need to spread to do so. Akin’s remarks played right into their hands and no amount of spin would keep that from happening.
But they should move on. Focus on the economy and not give this issue one more minute of airtime. They have said their piece.
I do hope the Dems really overplay this hand and go full in on abortion. Let the country at large know they’re all in on abortion on demand. On sex-selection abortion, on partial-birth abortion, on botched abortion delivered babies left to die. Let them wallow in their own blood for the country to see.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Agreed 100%.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:16 PM
As for what RobertE said, I don’t know if he’s wrong. I think Akin’s a dead duck, but if the Republican party cannot convince him to drop out or get a viable write in alternative, people should still vote for Akin ahead of McCaskill. Can you claim otherwise?
How does that make RobertE stupid?
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:09 PM
are you serious????? by your token, and assuming they didn’t have the common sense to resign, people should have voted for Mark Foley, maybe, or John Ensign, or the other Mark, don’t-cry-for-me-argentina-Sanford. you go on and on about being principled and person of faith and so on, and yet you say that hey, we’re stuck with this d-bag, we have to vote for him…seriously, who’s the hypocrite now…no, we don’t have to vote for d-bags like this, we can write-in candidates and all…or simp,y leave it blank, it’s not like McCaskill is not goi ng to win anyways following this akin debacle..
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:18 PM
That’s what happened. He didn’t withdraw from the race. He had at least 12 hours before people went beyond polite statements of disagreement.
joana on August 23, 2012 at 3:18 PM
But they should move on. Focus on the economy and not give this issue one more minute of airtime. They have said their piece.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:14 PM
you tend to forget that it’s not us to set the media narrative, so they will give it as much air time as they please, and be sure they will, from now till election day…or as long as this idiot stays in the race..
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:20 PM
‘not us who set’ that is…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:21 PM
I do hope the Dems really overplay this hand and go full in on abortion. Let the country at large know they’re all in on abortion on demand. On sex-selection abortion, on partial-birth abortion, on botched abortion delivered babies left to die. Let them wallow in their own blood for the country to see.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:14 PM
oh, pls, like the ‘country’ doesn’t know already where the Dems stand on abortion, yet that never stopped them from winning elections…it’s not like in 2008 they were less for abortion or something…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:24 PM
You’re equating words to actions. They are completely different things. Words can be misspoken. Beliefs can be changed if shown evidence. Actions cannot be undone.
A write in vote will not count unless the person has pre-registered with the State. Otherwise it’s the same as voting for Mickey Mouse and will be thrown out. Abstaining is the same as approving of McCaskill’s destructive leftist agenda. There are three choices: Get a better alternative on the ballot; get a legitimate write-in candidate that can win; hold your nose and vote for Akin. Nothing else is legitimate.
That you don’t look at Akin’s record and see he’s a far superior candidate to McCaskill scares me. The guy should go. If he’s too stubborn and selfish to do so, he still beats McCaskill. We need to overturn Obamacare and reign in entitlements now. We will not get another chance.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:26 PM
Yes they will and the people will get sick of it as long as the Republican candidates stick to the issues that matter: the economy, Obamacare, Medicare, etc. People already don’t trust the media and know they’re in the bag for Obama. Let them continue to prove it if they dare.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:28 PM
There’s a difference from knowing where they stand and celebrating that stance in all its bloody glory. If they turn the nomination event into an all abortion charade, it will backfire.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:29 PM
That you don’t look at Akin’s record and see he’s a far superior candidate to McCaskill scares me. The guy should go. If he’s too stubborn and selfish to do so, he still beats McCaskill. We need to overturn Obamacare and reign in entitlements now. We will not get another chance.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:26 PM
these are real alternatives, and that’s what I was talking about: ‘Get a better alternative on the ballot; get a legitimate write-in candidate that can win;
this is not and shouldn’t be an alternative:
‘hold your nose and vote for Akin’… Nothing else is legitimate’…
the fact that there are people who believe that he can still win this is proof of them dwelling in an alternate reality…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:34 PM
“Selfish Swine”
Schadenfreude on August 23, 2012 at 3:37 PM
joana on August 23, 2012 at 2:58 PM
Due to the time difference I haven’t been able to follow all of all of the threads, but it seems you’re being misunderstood as attacking social conservatives in general. It seems in fact you’re simply saying that a small, politically inept extreme fraction of social conservatives often behave in ways that are counterproductive to our overall goals. Am I understanding correctly?
DarkCurrent on August 23, 2012 at 3:07 PM
this is what most non-overly sensitive (or un-paranoid) people with a brain understood too…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:39 PM
pretty much… him and Huckabee both…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:41 PM
Even if this d-bag miraculously wins, we all know he will jump ship to the Dems claiming the GOP abandoned him. This is a no win situation.
Sammy316 on August 23, 2012 at 3:46 PM
Poll looks bad for Akin and the GOP who openly went after him, though they pretend to be the party of “States’ rights.” Anyone doubt that wont be thrown in their faces someday?
Don L on August 23, 2012 at 3:48 PM
There’s a difference from knowing where they stand and celebrating that stance in all its bloody glory. If they turn the nomination event into an all abortion charade, it will backfire.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 3:29 PM
you really think they are that stupid and they don’t have an army of PR people who will help them fine-tune the message so that it will be all about akin, and they will make the connection with the Romney/Ryan ticket and with the vile republicans who all hold the same position like him…(Boxer said this much and set the tone for this the other day) as opposed to an ‘abortion charade’ convention as you call it…this is beyond silly, to underestimate the Dems like this…they don’t even have to make it about abortion, but about Republicans believing there are legitimate rape instances or something…all they have to do is play that idiot’s words again and again on a big screen and the Dem message is writing itself and it gets out there, for everybody to take home…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 3:49 PM
Why the Hell is Huckabee allowed to speak at the RNC on Monday night? Yank his ass off the stage and cancel his hotel room.
Hope he gets booed, but the Romney people should just zero Huckabee out. Mitt doesn’t need him.
matthew8787 on August 23, 2012 at 3:59 PM
Yes I do. Paul Wellstone memorial. Enough said.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 4:04 PM
If he’s the only alternative to McCaskill, you do it anyway. I live in NJ. No way will Romney will NJ. Should I not vote for him anyway because he has no chance to win? Am I delusional for voting for him?
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 4:05 PM
With all due respect to Ed, you’d have to be drunk to think this is what he said or meant.
TheBlueSite on August 23, 2012 at 4:38 PM
Ha, Karl Rove said he will lose by the largest margin for any Senatorial candidate. Jeez, I hope he meant in Missouri. Remember Jim DeMint V Alvin Green? What a nail-biter.
Marcus on August 23, 2012 at 4:40 PM
most pols have a strong sense of self-absorption that few of us normal people can fathom. This is esp true of ex-preachers I guess.
the Huckster being the prime case right now.
Jennifer Rubin sums our dilemma up pretty well
sad really. Faced with the overarching presence of a socialist country limiting religion freedom wrt abortion to those that direct work in a church of some sort…these guys choose to lose
r keller on August 23, 2012 at 4:49 PM
SoCons are the least astute politically of any faction in politics. You wonder why the progressives eat them for lunch?
rickyricardo on August 23, 2012 at 4:52 PM
Huckabee holds a grudge against Romney is all this is about.
MrX on August 23, 2012 at 4:58 PM
If he’s the only alternative to McCaskill, you do it anyway. I live in NJ. No way will Romney will NJ. Should I not vote for him anyway because he has no chance to win? Am I delusional for voting for him?
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 4:05 PM
no, not deluded at all, I live in Cali (so less likely even than NJ that Romney wins here :-) and I still show up to vite, as much of a waste of time this might be…and then I donate regularly to Romney, the only reasonable and practical thing I can possibly do at my end…but back to your point there, I hope you are not comparing voting for romney to voting for akin, I really do hope so…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 5:11 PM
Jennifer Rubin sums our dilemma up pretty well
r keller on August 23, 2012 at 4:49 PM
couldn’t have put it better..she’s right in everything she wrote there…and it’s sad that this is the current state of affairs, and yet there are people ready to defend this crazy and tell us that we (or the Missourians in question) should actually vote for this guy coz this is best for the party…makes one nauseated really…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 5:15 PM
Yes I do. Paul Wellstone memorial. Enough said.
njrob on August 23, 2012 at 4:04 PM
:-) your comparison couldn’t be more off the mark, besides you don’t seem to gauge the proportions right (of the two ‘events’, that is)… you compare the Dem Convention in an year when the elections are this close and the Dems have everything to lose, with a memorial for a guy who died in a plane crash and that was turned into a pep rally by the Dems that costed them a Minnesota seat…yeah, very apt comparison indeed…
jimver on August 23, 2012 at 5:22 PM
What are the chances that someone pries the PPP poll from Akins hand and shows him THESE numbers instead?
Anyone think the Rasmussen poll, combined with the hard reality that Akin isn’t getting any $$$ from the RNC, will convince him to stand down?
Grace_is_sufficient on August 23, 2012 at 5:22 PM
Personally, not being a so-called “Socon,” being an Econocon, this Akin guy and his rape=birth control, parsing of rape into types, has blown me out of the water with several people, who had become convinced that they are also Econocons, and that Obama probably should not be their guy. They were pretty much on board to vote against him in this election although they are also pro choice and just out of college with heads full of liberal profs’ theories. They had decided that they could respect the religious and moral objections to abortion of honorable people who are nothing but respectful of women and that the Lib’s accusations of a “War on Women” was silly nonsense. Then, this Akin thing blew. He used illegitimate rape as justification for his abortion position and I’m afraid they’re now gone, at least for this next election cycle, and this next election cycle is a biggie. A ‘conservatives hate women and want to curtail their rights’ meme is out there, free floating and wide spread. Without a coalition, we won’t get rid of Obama.
limmo on August 23, 2012 at 5:24 PM
This scenario has played out in Louisiana in a sheriff’s race, the safest incumbent sheriff in the state at the time.
After the rape card was played here is what happened to the socon base of the incumbent, the women just did not vote in that race even though going to the polls and voting in all other races. The incumbent lost. The nutcase longshot won.
BTW, Goldwater carried that area quite handily in ’64. Yes it was almost 4 decades earlier, but not much had changed in the mindset of the populace.
Kermit on August 23, 2012 at 5:33 PM
Idiots.
avgjo on August 23, 2012 at 6:05 PM
Ok, Rush. Time to lower the boom.
captn2fat on August 23, 2012 at 6:31 PM
The only people I ever see using ‘Cons’ or ‘SoCons’ to describe conservatives turn out to be from the f’n retard factory that is Democrat Underground. So when I see somebody use it here, I have to figure that’s where they are from, or where their viewpoints originate.
rayra on August 23, 2012 at 7:04 PM
McCaskill’s screw up 18 some months ago is far worse than Akin’s foot in mouth mistake. Just because it isn’t a recent occurance does not diminish the gravity of the error.
Claire failed to pay her Missouri personal property tax on her airplane: $72,790 in 2007; $74,699 in 2008; $69,394 in 2009; and $70,401 in 2010. Only when her failure to pay was exposed did she pay.
Claire charged taxpayers more than $88,000 for trips on the plane and only paid it back when that fact was exposed.
That’s a total of $375,000.
But that’s chicken feed when you consider her votes on the Obama porkulus bill and her vote on ObamaCare. That’s two trillion plus dollars.
The citizens of Missouri cannot afford to have Claire McCaskill in the U.S. Senate any longer.
From Politico: 3/21/11 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51675_Page2.html
stefano1 on August 23, 2012 at 7:07 PM
scrooge you, ‘moderate’ McDuck. There’s NOTHING in the FRC (or Chik-Fil-A CEO’s) remarks that is in any way extreme, or in any way ‘fringe’ in traditional religious views. So when someone whinges or criticizes those positions / remarks, they are indeed attacking religion itself. The act of ‘social moderates’ whinging about religion in the party IS an attempt to drive it out. Even if you are too stupid (or dishonest) to see it that way.
rayra on August 23, 2012 at 7:11 PM
Pretty sad when Ed Morrissey devolves into flat out lies to attack someone he does not like.
Freddy on August 24, 2012 at 12:33 AM
Akin reminds me of the banjo playing kid from “Deliverance”. Not to insult the kid or anything.
bluesdoc70 on August 24, 2012 at 8:33 AM
I am shocked to see HOTAIR going after AKIN. You aren’t part of the Republican elites
I am a women and I stand by him…
cw on August 24, 2012 at 12:34 PM
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