Romney gaining steam in swing-state polling?

posted at 12:01 pm on August 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

That’s the cautious analysis from one of the best in the business, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight at the New York Times.  Nate’s cautious because he rightly notes that we don’t have a plethora of data yet from swing-state polls, nor a real consistency in how they’re conducted in a broad sense.  However, Mitt Romney had been trailing in poll “wins” earlier this summer by a significant margin, and now has managed to close the gap almost entirely:

One simple thing I’ve noticed is this: Mitt Romney has held the lead recently in quite a few swing state polls. That wasn’t the case in June or July, when Barack Obama held leads in those polls far more often than Mr. Romney did.

Right now, our forecast model classifies the 10 most important states in the Electoral College as follows, and in the following order: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

If you simply count the scientific polls that have been conducted in those states since Aug. 1, Mr. Obama has led in 13 of them, Mr. Romney has led in 11, and there have been two exact ties.

This marks a contrast from June and July, when Mr. Obama held leads in polls of the top 10 states about four times as often as Mr. Romney did.

Keep reading, though, because the news isn’t all good.  The margins tend to favor Obama more, for one thing, and Nate questions the “Republican leaning” of some pollsters.  However, that would have been equally true in June and July, which is why the longer time frame matters and a simpler approach might tell a more accurate story.

If this is the case, though, then why have the national polls stalled at the mid-summer status quo?  That might be a function of Obama’s strength increasing in states he’ll win anyway, like New York.  The latest from Siena (a well-respected pollster) shows Obama up 29 points.  A month earlier, Quinnipiac had Obama up 23 points.  That’s bad news for Republicans in down-ticket races, but hardly a surprise.  It matters little to Romney whether he loses by five points or fifty in states like New York and California, except to the extent that Team Obama has to spend resources in those states to keep them in line.  If the deep-blue states get deeper blue, it would tend to balance out any swing-states shift toward Romney in national polling.

After the conventions, the national polls will matter a little less and state-by-state polling give us a better idea of where the race is.  Of course, one has to be careful which of these polls one considers.  Gannett’s News-Press reported last night on a new poll that showed Romney up by 14 points in Florida — but just how reliable is the pollster?

Foster McCollum White & Associates, Baydoun Consulting and Douglas Fulmer & Associates, of Dearborn, Mich., questioned 1,503 likely Florida voters Friday and found Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leading Obama 54%-40%. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.53%.

Although recent Florida polls have been trending slightly in Romney’s direction (+2% and +1% in the most recent surveys), the jaw-dropping 14-point gap is a shocker. Future polls will determine if this result is ahead of the curve or merely an outlier.

In the U.S. Senate race in Florida, the poll found Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers, leading incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson 51%-43%.

We got a few e-mails on this, but I’m very skeptical about these results.  The current RCP average for Florida is Obama +1, even though the last two polls listed show Romney with an edge.  The latest RCP average for the Florida Senate race has Nelson up by 2.5 points, not down by eight.  The last pollster to show Mack with a lead at all was Survey USA in July, by six points.  Otherwise, the average would have Nelson up by 5.3 points.  Finally, I have no idea who paid for three consultant shops in Michigan to combine up for a poll in Florida, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the answer had something to do with the outlier it produced.  I sent an e-mail to the News-Press digital editor to see if they have more data on this poll, and I’ll update this post with any reply I receive.

I’d stick with Nate’s analysis on this, and be mildly encouraged by the direction of swing-state polling this summer.  If nothing else, it shows that Obama remains a very weak incumbent, and until he starts talking about his second-term plans, swing-state voters will probably continue to drift to the candidate who has an agenda.


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…he better be gaining!

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

We won’t really know the state of the race until Mitt releases his $200 million Kracken on Obama while he flies back and forth to Bel Air begging for money.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

…how would JugEars pull ahead?

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

That might be a function of Obama’s strength increasing in states he’ll win anyway, like New York. The latest from Siena (a well-respected pollster) shows Obama up 29 points.

C’mon Allahpundit! Get out & ring some doorbells!!!

KS Rex on August 22, 2012 at 12:09 PM

We can win, and thats that.

rob verdi on August 22, 2012 at 12:09 PM

If Obama HAD any viable plans for a second term, he would already have been running his campaign on that, rather than conducting a purely negative campaign.

His ‘plan’ will consist of trying to denigrate everything that Romney puts forth, and more empty promises. Its all he has.

Even his campaign slogan ‘Forward’ is predicated on actually having a plan to move forward, yet there is no plan. I think that is telling in itself.

An empty campaign for an empty suit.

thatsafactjack on August 22, 2012 at 12:12 PM

But, uh, uh, that, uh, that Later, uh, uh, Latter, uh, Later, uh, that, uh, that Mormon would have those, uh, poor, uh, 3 year olds, uh, aborting their, uh, babies.

- The Commie

OhEssYouCowboys on August 22, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Akin, Akin, Akin, Akin … uh, yeah, better change the subject.

bifidis on August 22, 2012 at 12:15 PM

If Obama HAD any viable plans for a second term, he would already have been running his campaign on that, rather than conducting a purely negative campaign.

thatsafactjack on August 22, 2012 at 12:12 PM

You don’t think protecting America from a mass murderer like Romney is a good plan?

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Don’t screw this up, Team Mitt!

long_cat on August 22, 2012 at 12:16 PM

What happened between June/July and end of August? We got a lot closer to the election and the pollsters and their sponsors feel like they have to stop being as partisan and start worrying about their credibility. They don’t want to end up like Zogby.

besser tot als rot on August 22, 2012 at 12:18 PM

OT: DOJ’s IG report on Fast and Furious is finished and in Holder’s hands. Reportedly in a “review room” with restricted access and no cell phone or electronics allowed in the room. (Does Holder fear a mole among his higher-ups?)

Also, senior BATFE villain Bill McMahon has been given paid leave to protect his pension while he works a lucrative private job. Unless I’m mistaken, that is illegal. I bet he can link Holder to F&F so he gets a golden parachute.

novaculus on August 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

one of the best in the business, Nate Silver

You have got to be kidding me Ed??? Nate Silver, the person who sucked so bad at baseball statistics his “model” picked the Cubs to win the World Series three times. Sucked so bad that he embarrassed himself out of doing baseball statistics. The person who always complains about Republican leanings in pollsters, but never notices Democratic leanings in pollsters. Sorry but calling him the “one of the best in the business,” is a stretch.

opustx on August 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

An empty campaign for an empty suit.

thatsafactjack on August 22, 2012 at 12:12 PM

..good morning, ma’am.

Things are beginning to look ominous for The Pantload what with R&R beginning to cycle up the main gun on the Death Star. Reagan and Carter were running pretty much even until about three days before the race when the folks began to defect and the landslide eventuated.

I’m guessing that the gas gauge on Obama’s campaign is beginning to look like this:

E…….1/2…….F
^
|

The War Planner on August 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

…how would JugEars pull ahead?

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Easy. Give away stuff by Executive Order.

Your student loans are too much to pay? Don’t worry, there’s an EO for that.

Your mortgage under water? No problem, there’s an EO for that.

You want to be a citizen? It’s EO time!

etc.

Curtiss on August 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM

What happened between June/July and end of August? We got a lot closer to the election and the pollsters and their sponsors feel like they have to stop being as partisan and start worrying about their credibility. They don’t want to end up like Zogby.

besser tot als rot on August 22, 2012 at 12:18 PM

..yet they are still doing the RV thing and skewing D+8 or D+9?

The War Planner on August 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM

It could be partly because Romney’s Medicare ad is hitting a home run in the swing states. RUN THAT AD NATIONALLY.
Someone tell me that RR has done national buys for that ad, where you get cheaper per capita rates, and you can influence the national numbers and conversation, which in turn will influence the swing states (and we can’t always say for sure which states are going to be the swing states). Romney’s Medicare ad is a game changer. It needs to run extensively, and nationally.

anotherJoe on August 22, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Nate questions the “Republican leaning” of some pollsters

Nate has become more concerned about this, but never seems to be nearly as concerned as the “Democrat leaning” of some other pollsters. Which is why I don’t consider him “one of the best in the business” anymore. And, I’d point out that he tends to base his “leans” on final polls, not the push polls done earlier in the year that are used to make news and try and create a sense of inevitability for the Dem. We aren’t to the final polls yet. But when we are, I’m sure the pollsters will be on their best behavior and try to get it right. Up to now, they haven’t been nearly as concerned about it because if they are 20 points off 6 months before the election, that’s not really going to affect their credibility.

besser tot als rot on August 22, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think NYT’s “Best in the business” NYT’s Nate Silver NYT’s has been saying Romney does not have a chance in he**.
Every sign points to a serious momentum shift but NYT’s Nate Silver NYT’s doesn’t see it yet…

winston on August 22, 2012 at 12:23 PM

OT: DOJ’s IG report on Fast and Furious is finished and in Holder’s hands. Reportedly in a “review room” with restricted access and no cell phone or electronics allowed in the room. (Does Holder fear a mole among his higher-ups?)

Also, senior BATFE villain Bill McMahon has been given paid leave to protect his pension while he works a lucrative private job. Unless I’m mistaken, that is illegal. I bet he can link Holder to F&F so he gets a golden parachute.

novaculus on August 22, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Source pls

koaiko on August 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Ha! This should have its own thread: Leno mocking Obama for having the press in his back pocket.

Nope. We are not in 2008 anymore, Dorothy.

Rational Thought on August 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

I’m not seeing the love for zero here..quite a contrast from 09.
I see a bumper sticker here and there..
My area anyway. Do we have a chance? hell yeah! Keep pounding-
Look who is showing up..troll mania..shatting themselves silly.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Every sign points to a serious momentum shift but NYT’s Nate Silver NYT’s doesn’t see it yet…

Signs like no movement at all in any polling except some Akinites giving up on a third party candidate and sighing, ok rMoney?

Hurray he’s only losing by less now!

tommyhawk on August 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Can’t wait to see Nate Silver’s head explode on November 6 when his complex statistical model is proven wrong. If Romney is only down by 3 or less in any swing state on November 5, then he will win that state.

WordsMatter on August 22, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Gannett’s News-Press reported last night on a new poll that showed Romney up by 14 points in Florida — but just how reliable is the pollster?

..might not be the case but do you remember how the “shocking polls” in Wisconsin showed Walker up by a huge amount when other polls showed a dead eve or MOE race?

Then other polls seemed to “back fill” those with similar shifts of their own.

Taken on the whole — and discounting Silver’s dubious analysis — the overall Summer trend is not good for Obama. And, as I said, R&R are only just starting to do the final system checks on the Death Star. When that goes operational after the GOP convention, it will not be a pretty sight.

The War Planner on August 22, 2012 at 12:29 PM

The hardcore lefty/Democrat Nate questions the “Republican leaning” of some pollsters.

FIFUS

WordsMatter on August 22, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Signs like no movement at all in any polling except some Akinites giving up on a third party candidate and sighing, ok rMoney?

Hurray he’s only losing by less now!

tommyhawk on August 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Your panic is delicious.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Ed, the one thing I think that Nate Silver (being a media guy himself, misses is that the media polls (NBC, CBS, NYT, AP, ABC…..) all seem to assume is that the electorate will look very much as it did in ’08. What has become clear from all of these polls is that the electorate will NOT look like ’08 and trend much towards the ’10 model.

I think Gallup and Rasmussen have figured that out and their polls are much more reflective of the trend.

Bottom line! Obama’s stuck at around 46-47% of the electorate.

Tater Salad on August 22, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Infighting..:)

The president’s re-election campaign casts itself as a fully-functioning, well-oiled machine — a ‘No Drama Obama’ kind of shop. But a new eBook — Obama’s Last Stand — details plenty of discord and discontent coming out of the campaign’s headquarters in Chicago.

“In the spring and early summer, there was a lot of disconnect between Chicago and Washington,” said author Glenn Thrush. So much so, Thrush added, that the president became very anxious, and on several occasions told aides to sort of “tighten it up.”

The book suggests the president is highly involved in the campaign, and deeply competitive. Thrush writes of one instance, when Obama in Florida runs into a woman who knew was close to Sen. Marco Rubio:

“Is your boy going to go for [vice president]?” the president asked her. Maybe, she replied.

“Well,” he said, chuckling, according to a person who witnessed the encounter. “Tell your boy to watch it. He might get his ass kicked.”

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Better than the teleprompter photo yesterday:

https://twitter.com/CHRISMAL0NEY/status/238283278925328384

GCM on August 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

OT/ This is the real reason SlowJoe is appearing at the GOP Convention according to Ulsterman:

UPDATE FROM INSIDER: (late Tuesday, August 21, 2012)

Here is what I know to this point. At least what I am comfortable sharing with you:

-Biden scheduled for event Monday prior to official opening of the GOP convention.

-There is to be some form of altercation, protest, outbreak, etc. Not sure on specifics. Purpose is to make VP look sympathetic but more important, give media portrayal of “radical” conservatives a timely visual upon which to build that right through to Election Day.

-Source relayed they confirmed whispers of this locally by some media in Tampa later this afternoon. Biden’s arrival in Tampa already deemed “provocative” which will ensure significant media coverage. The event/false flag will be used to overshadow the Monday convention ceremonies, as well as cast a shadow on convention for remainder of the week.

-Military source indicated this plan did NOT come from Chicago. Axelrod is indicating surprise and uncertainty. He has either become a much better actor or he had very little if anything to do with this. Not that he isn’t capable. Guy is an assh-le. That means it is WH specific. That means Jarrett, as I indicated earlier. Where is Gerard?

-What the Obama team is doing here is incredibly dangerous. Country is at brink already. Just beneath the surface. This kind of thing, if not totally controlled, could break out into an even more significant event. Perhaps they want that outcome?????

-Tie this in with earlier reports regarding the ammunition purchases. Originally I ignored your questions on that. Last week it received my full attention. It’s the real deal. I am gonna add that you don’t do target practice with hollow point. Those are designed for one thing and one thing only. Let that sink in. Why is the Obama government buying up this kind of ammo in such massive amounts? Place those ammo purchases with their willingness to stage a confrontation such as what they intend this Monday.

-You are right when pointing to the fact this was leaked by SS. Rest assured they probably gave the Romney details a heads up well before any of us did. They will continue to do their job as they always do, but there is no love loss between that organization and the administration. The backstory on that may come out after Obama has left office.

-Military source warned this could be a well played head fake to try and expose leakers. In my rush to get this to you I had not considered that. Rookie mistake. I should have known better. I’m still capable of losing my own ass in the dark.

That’s my attempt at humor, but this sh-t is absolutely serious.

As to your last question. My recommendation is you stay away. At this point none of us know how this thing is going to break. Hopefully now that the word is out they will back off it. But who knows. So sit this one out.

-WHI

______________________

I would ask all those planning to attend the GOP Convention next week to please make certain you conduct yourself with dignity and care at ALL TIMES. Do no allow yourself to be manipulated into becoming part of something manufactured by forces favorable to the Obama campaign.

May everyone who attends return home safely – including those we might disagree with politically.

-UM

NapaConservative on August 22, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Ed, you should ask Nate which Obama voting bloc is as strong as or enthused to going to the polls as in ’08.

PS. I think I know the answer and it matches his nickname, Zero.

Tater Salad on August 22, 2012 at 12:37 PM

There are many hopeful signs this morning… I am hoping this is the beginning of the end. That at some point people start paying attention and asking themselves the right questions and it goes Romney from here on out.

But then I have never understood Obama’s appeal in the first place. He is just not that smart or good. Why would you vote for a guy who knows so little and has so little ability? I don’t get it. He hasn’t even given a decent speech since 2009. There is no there there. But his numbers are still high.

petunia on August 22, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Source pls

koaiko on August 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM

IG report finished

McMahon on paid leave

novaculus on August 22, 2012 at 12:39 PM

In desperation upon reading the poll numbers, Barry/Axelrod are now saying they will be satisfied if Romney releases 3 years of his tax returns.

bayview on August 22, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Every sign points to a serious momentum shift but NYT’s Nate Silver NYT’s doesn’t see it yet…

Signs like no movement at all in any polling except some Akinites giving up on a third party candidate and sighing, ok rMoney?

Hurray he’s only losing by less now!

tommyhawk on August 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Don’t look now but R/R are drawing HUGE crowds…Ryan gaining real steam…Seniors Aren’t fleeing to the SCOAMF (D’s only strategy)…Slow Joe is finally being exposed as the fool he is…MSM is pulling the curtain back…seen NEWSWEEK? Blue states are all of a sudden competitive…obama campaign is plagued by infighting and their LYING is being reported!!!
Need I go on???

winston on August 22, 2012 at 12:40 PM

If nothing else, it shows that Obama remains a very weak incumbent,

let’s talk about his record every day for the next 75…

ted c on August 22, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Lol Nate Silver “one of the best in through business”? Hardly. He is a DNC hack that shades all of his analysis with the caveat (Obama must win).

He excoriates Rasmussen for a Republican “houset advantage” while completely ignoring huge oversampling of Democrats in other polling. No Nate Silver is no analyst. He is a DNC propagandist.

mitchellvii on August 22, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Oh, and I know Silver is suposed to be a guru of epic proportions… but not lately. He seems so partasan and whistling past the grave yard. I think he isn’t going to keep that reputation this time. Nate Silver is engaging in wishful thinking. It happens.

petunia on August 22, 2012 at 12:42 PM

-Tie this in with earlier reports regarding the ammunition purchases. Originally I ignored your questions on that. Last week it received my full attention. It’s the real deal. I am gonna add that you don’t do target practice with hollow point. Those are designed for one thing and one thing only. Let that sink in. Why is the Obama government buying up this kind of ammo in such massive amounts? Place those ammo purchases with their willingness to stage a confrontation such as what they intend this Monday.

NapaConservative on August 22, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Good grief.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 12:43 PM

And I’ll add PPP poll in MA shows Brown up five over Warren

Whose platform the SCOAMF has co opted…”You didn’t build that”…
ROFLMAO…it’s coming apart at the seams…but don’t tell NATE!!!

winston on August 22, 2012 at 12:45 PM

IG report finished

novaculus on August 22, 2012 at 12:39 PM

I am not familiar with this “Town Hall” place. Are they reputable?

cozmo on August 22, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Akin, Akin, Akin, Akin … uh, yeah, better change the subject.

Terminal Stupidity on August 22, 2012 at 12:15 PM

From Daily Kos:

…by any objective standard, Monday and Tuesday have to be considered the best two polling days that Republicans have seen in a very, very long time. Four different polls put Democratic incumbents behind their GOP counterparts, and also put the most vulnerable Republican incumbent (Scott Brown) out in front by five points. Also, a trio of House internal polls give Republicans leads in two Democratic districts (CO-07, unbelievably, as well as the nominally Democratic new district in NV-04), and a wide lead in what has long been perceived as a flippable GOP-held seat in Illinois.

Meanwhile, I just went to Polling Report.com and couldn’t even find Akin’s name mentioned.

Please have Axelrod give you some better garbage to spew.

F-

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 12:50 PM

bayview on August 22, 2012 at 12:39 PM

LOLOLOL

pambi on August 22, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I am not familiar with this “Town Hall” place. Are they reputable?

cozmo on August 22, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Don’t know for sure. Waiting for Harry Reid’s source to confirm.

novaculus on August 22, 2012 at 12:58 PM

‘UNtil he starts talking about hs second term plans’ …..???…. He has NO plan, so expect more Seamus and similar distra tions….

jimver on August 22, 2012 at 12:58 PM

let’s talk about his record every day for the next 75…

ted c on August 22, 2012 at 12:41 PM

That’s just crazy enough to work…hey, squirrel!!!

CitizenEgg on August 22, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Some of us (meaning me) believe this is Romney’s election to lose. I just don’t believe Obama is capable of winning a fair election. The more he tries to pull the dirty stuff that got him elected before, the worse it’s going to get for him.

bflat879 on August 22, 2012 at 1:01 PM

How’s Obama doing in “O-I-H-O” ?

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on August 22, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Florida, Ohio and Iowa are key…if Mitt takes these states it’s “bye-bye Obummer!!”

Praying for the above outcome..the commie marxist needs the boot!

Liberty or Death on August 22, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on August 22, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Could that be seen as a bannable offense?

It sure looks racist, sexist, and bias against inner city diction to me.

cozmo on August 22, 2012 at 1:04 PM

That’s the cautious analysis from one of the best in the business, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight at the New York Times.

Ugh, I dont know why people give Nate Silver that much credit.

The man cannot even admit that many of the polls out there are flat out garbage, yet he gives them credence and from what I can tell, his model suffers from the same flaws as most liberal polls – the general belief that somehow the country is more liberal than it actually is.

milcus on August 22, 2012 at 1:05 PM

You want to be a citizen in time to vote this year? It’s EO time!

etc.

Curtiss on August 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM

FIFM

freedomfirst on August 22, 2012 at 1:10 PM

As has been pointed out before, Nate’s analysis is wrong. He ignores the D+6 turnout problems in polls.

There are now two very pronounced data points saying turnout will probably look like 2004′s even split at worst — nationally Gallup found a 38-point enthusiasm swing from 2008, and in swing states Dems have lost 10x as many registrants (800K vs 80K).

TallDave on August 22, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Nate Silver is neither good nor objective at analyzing polls and predicting elections. He is a liberal hack and he always analyzes from a liberal perspective. He underestimated the Republicans gains in the House in 2010 by almost 20 seats.

mnjg on August 22, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Of course it’s not all good news:

If Obama isn’t re-elected it means we have President Romney.

Browncoatone on August 22, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Rasmussen: McMahon up by 3 percent in Connecticut. Whoa.

WordsMatter on August 22, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Of course it’s not all good news:

If Obama isn’t re-elected it means we have President Romney.

Browncoatone on August 22, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Post of the week, maybe the month.

WordsMatter on August 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

The polling is terrible and I will tell you why:

Participation rates are currently under 5%. That means if you want 1,000 responses, you need to call 20,000 people. 19,000 of them are going to decline participation in the poll even if you reach them.

Second problem is that polls are only going to wired phones, not cell phones. I know two people who have been laid off, unable to find work, they got rid of their wired phones to save money and have free “lifeline” phones. If the pollers are only calling wired phones, they a missing a lot of people who are pretty bad off and might not be inclined to support Obama.

All that said, my personal strategy is to not respond to telephone polls until about 2 weeks before the election and then to respond to every single one and be honest. At that point the elections will be too close for the campaigns to adjust to changing numbers. Because of the poor participation numbers and where I live being deep blue, if I respond to the survey with pro Romney responses, my response will not only carry more weight than it otherwise might but chances are that the person who would have replaced me in responding to the poll would have been a “progressive” Democrat. If other people leaning towards Romney who have not been responding to phone polls do the same thing in the final week or two before the elections, it could produce a result similar to what we saw in 1980.

crosspatch on August 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Don’t tell Allah he might hang himself.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 22, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Holder sues Gallup Polling

“Nice polling firm you have here. Be a shame if something happened to it.”

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Second problem is that polls are only going to wired phones, not cell phones.

crosspatch on August 22, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Actually in doing crosstab research over the summer I found that some of the “pollsters” are in fact also calling cell phones. Can’t remember off the top of my head which ones, but cell phone poll samples have been mentioned more than a few times.

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 1:57 PM

Best in the business? Silver is more often wrong than right and has been a passionate progressive idealouge BEFORE joining the NY Times.

TheLastBrainLeft on August 22, 2012 at 1:59 PM

…how would JugEars pull ahead?

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Easy. Give away stuff by Executive Order.

Your student loans are too much to pay? Don’t worry, there’s an EO for that.

Your mortgage under water? No problem, there’s an EO for that.

You want to be a citizen? It’s EO time!

etc.I think its to late. I think these things would backfire at this point

newportmike on August 22, 2012 at 2:00 PM

RCP “averages” are skewed by biased left wing polling. In fact, the reason they produce such biased polling is to affect the aggregation at RCP. Stop pointing out their numbers as something statistically trustworthy.

TheLastBrainLeft on August 22, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Yeah, stick with Nate Silver. Let him do your thinking.

But maybe ask yourself: was he any closer than anyone else in the several cycles he was working before ’06 and ’08? And why didn’t he pick up the GOP wave before anyone else in ’10?

All these Democratic “experts” like Silver and Sabato and Craig Crawford and the legal guy have something in common: they are closer to right in Democratic years. Hmmm.

It’s like Carville noted about Krugman’s whining early in the first Clinton term: “Krugman is famous for having predicted 19 of the last three recessions.”

Someone should warn MKH about the effects of long-term exposure to AP upon the central nervous system.

Adjoran on August 22, 2012 at 3:24 PM