Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes

posted at 8:41 pm on August 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.

Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?

Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…

Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.

Meanwhile, in the poll of polls

Of the last 10 national polls, two have Obama up by four points, three have him up by just one or two points, and the rest have the race either tied or with Romney ahead. The swing states are moving towards Romney too: Yesterday it was Michigan and Wisconsin, today it’s Nevada, where Obama’s lead has shrunk to two. I’m awfully curious to see where the polls are at this time next month, after Romney finally gets his formal introduction to undecideds at the convention and he and the RNC start to plow all of that cash they’ve stockpiled into negative ads. I’m skeptical that he can win by as large a margin as the model cited above imagines, but who knows what a terrible jobs report in October might mean?

Exit question: Can you spot the super-secret connection between the Bickers/Berry model and this clip? Click the image to listen.


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A state that voted for Jesse Ventura and Stuart Smalley and voted against Reagan twice. They are beyond help.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Wow…if you woulda throwed in Brave Sir Mark Dayton you could have had the Bishop Blow Up Doll Trifecta.

Go Minnesota!!!

BigWyo on August 22, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Having gone on record here calling out BJ Clinton as the rapist, sexual deviant, molester as he is, I will say that I would take his steerage of our great country over President McFlapEarsLikesItInTheAss on any day. At least the Clenis moved to center.

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 9:21 PM

I have been saying it for months. Romney will win this election by 5 percentage points minimum, maybe as many as 10. It’s the economy people. It’s not rocket science.

dddave on August 22, 2012 at 9:17 PM

A lot of conventional wisdom is going down the tubes in November.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:22 PM

The Dems were giddy over the Ryan selection and thought that they could make him an albatross around Romney’s neck within two weeks. It has been eleven days and there is no indication that the choice was wrong.

Happy Nomad on August 22, 2012 at 9:18 PM

No one really understand the implications yet. It’s too early for voters to have much confidence either way. Of course, finding clearly objective sources is a challenge, as is navigating past the large amount of superficial reporting.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443324404577597482609304816.html

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:23 PM

I agree that on the surface some plan is better than no plan, but a voucher system doesn’t do much to attack the underlying cost problem and poorly aligned cost incentives among doctors. A few extra tests or specialist referrals a week can pay for a summer vacation home as some doctors have pointed out.

You REALLY don’t understand the idea of a “market” do you? McDonalds charging a little more for pickles or fries or ending free ketchup would boost corporate earnings, until the cusotmers went to Hardees, because the prices were cheaper but the products EQUIVALENT…smae with Doctors. Man, are you guyz/galz on the Left REALLY this clueless?

You worry aobut costs, when it’s YOUR money! That’s what a voucher does, makes it YOUR money…rather than Medicare’s money…when it’s Medicares’ what do YOU care? When it’s yours, you pay more attention.

As above, this isn’t Rocket Science.

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Word:
Bill Clintoon and Sandra Fluck sharing hotel suite to save the rats money, lower the deficit and raise the dead.
News from the suite, Clintoon rises again!

ConcealedKerry on August 22, 2012 at 9:23 PM

By the way everybody, Obama’s lead in the RCP average is inching back down to 1% again, so expect a couple pre-convention D+20 polls showing the jerk up 52-43 to shift the numbers.

Gingotts on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Maybe the outfit that found Romney up by 14 in Florida can do a national poll and swamp the D+20 poll effect.

KW64 on August 22, 2012 at 9:24 PM

This academic model doesn’t take into account that the President is an evil liar who will accuse his opponent of being a murderer, felon and tax cheat.

Wigglesworth on August 22, 2012 at 9:25 PM

PA and MN — I doubt it. NH maybe

I’d happily take 269 EV followed by a Congressional tie breaking vote and call it a mandating landslide.

KW64 on August 22, 2012 at 9:16 PM

You know what you get with that, don’t you?

A President Romney and a Vice-President Biden.

Resist We Much on August 22, 2012 at 9:25 PM

So, how long before the Fifth Column Treasonous Media starts reporting sighting of Zombie Reagan rising from the grave to chase Slow Joe around?

SWalker on August 22, 2012 at 9:26 PM

This poll indicates that Sarah Palin must run as a third-party candidate.

Rusty Allen on August 22, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

“Applied restrospectively”. OK.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:27 PM

So, how long before the Fifth Column Treasonous Media starts reporting sighting of Zombie Reagan rising from the grave to chase Slow Joe around?

Would Slow Joe have the brains to run and be chased?

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:27 PM

In that case, the Senate chooses the VP.

Romney/Biden?

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Romney may send him to all the foreign funerals so he can’t break Senate tie votes.

KW64 on August 22, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

Oh come on. You can always build a model to retrospectively be correct. This is what’s known in statistics as over-fitting. And it does not mean that you’re predictive of the future.

Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980.

This isn’t correct. It’s accurate when applied retrospectively.

tneloms on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Actually Romney will win by more than that.

mitchellvii on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

This poll indicates that Sarah Palin must run as a third-party candidate.

Rusty Allen on August 22, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Yet another PDS freak can’t help bringing up the name Palin. But yeah, it would be nice to have something other than a Hobson’s choice for sure.

And I don’t think this is about a “poll”. ‘Bots are sharp, man.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

So, how long before the Fifth Column Treasonous Media starts reporting sighting of Zombie Reagan rising from the grave to chase Slow Joe around?

Would Slow Joe have the brains to run and be chased?

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Maybe, but ya just know that Valerie Jarrett would nail one of Slow Joe’s feet to the ground to give her a Obama a chance to escape…

SWalker on August 22, 2012 at 9:30 PM

You REALLY don’t understand the idea of a “market” do you? McDonalds charging a little more for pickles or fries or ending free ketchup would boost corporate earnings, until the cusotmers went to Hardees, because the prices were cheaper but the products EQUIVALENT…smae with Doctors. Man, are you guyz/galz on the Left REALLY this clueless?

Your mastery of this country’s healthcare system is certainly unique. So tell us, why has the cost of private healthcare in this country risen more quickly than that of Medicare? According to you, all that marketplace competition controls costs- because healthcare is just like the QSR industry??
Next time research the basic facts before declaring your intellectual superiority.

http://www.healthbeatblog.com/2011/05/medicare-breaks-the-inflation-curve/

http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/the_wsj_editorial_page_and_pau.php

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:31 PM

I don’t see a guy who’s stuck in the mid-40s nationally becoming a Reagan down the stretch and pulling off some fantasy landslide. But whatever fantasy gets you through, I guess.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM

You mean like Reagan at this same point in his campaign against Carter?

:)

honsy on August 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Oh come on. You can always build a model to retrospectively be correct. This is what’s known in statistics as over-fitting. And it does not mean that you’re predictive of the future..

tneloms on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

LOL, exactly. But come on, dude. Don’t harsh their mellow. Romney’s going to win Wisconsin, and Oregon, and at least make it close in California if it’s a R +8 turnout the way it’s supposed to be and not like in those commie polls.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Would Slow Joe have the brains to run and be chased?

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Maybe, but ya just know that Valerie Jarrett would nail one of Slow Joe’s feet to the ground to give her a Obama a chance to escape…

I look at this crew and I think Jarrett would nail BOTH of Biden’s down, and one of Obama’s…they look increasingly desperate

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM

the prescription drug program works this way and it has come in as way under cost projections because it works this way.

different plans, different coverages etc. and choice of cost either more upfront and less co-pays and vice versa.

Medicare as we know it is unsustainable-using market foreces is the best way too control it.

gerrym51 on August 22, 2012 at 9:33 PM

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I just happen to understand that she is the only hope for the survival of our species. She’s a modern day Noah, and you best be on the ark.

Rusty Allen on August 22, 2012 at 9:33 PM

You mean like Reagan at this same point in his campaign against Carter?

:)

honsy on August 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Yeah. Reagan. Not George H. W. Bush.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:33 PM

“Further, as the CBO could tell ya (as it already has told the Democrats), the money they cut ‘would be used to pay for other spending and therefore would not enhance the ability of the government to pay for future Medicare benefits.’”

http://www.pdfdownload.org/pdf2html/pdf2html.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbo.gov%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fcbofiles%2Fftpdocs%2F113xx%2Fdoc11376%2Fryanltrhr4872.pdf&images=yes

Resist We Much on August 22, 2012 at 9:34 PM

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Hey. Nobody loves Palin more’n me.

‘Cept maybe idesign.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:34 PM

I just happen to understand that she is the only hope for the survival of our species. She’s a modern day Noah, and you best be on the ark.

Rusty Allen on August 22, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Nah, you little squishies will think of something. Maybe sitting around b1tching about socons or the like.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Your mastery of this country’s healthcare system is certainly unique. So tell us, why has the cost of private healthcare in this country risen more quickly than that of Medicare? According to you, all that marketplace competition controls costs- because healthcare is just like the QSR industry??
Next time research the basic facts before declaring your intellectual superiority.

Because genius, GOVERNMENT sets the reimbursement rate for Medicare. It is less than the costs of service, genreally, in short private costs increase BECAUSE of Medicare.

It’s not Rocket Science, and this has been known since 2009 and the debates about ObamaCare, do you just think you can throw out any talking point to bamboozle us?

I know you’re trying, Bless Your Heart, but please try a little harder.

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:36 PM

LOL, exactly. But come on, dude. Don’t harsh their mellow. Romney’s going to win Wisconsin, and Oregon, and at least make it close in California if it’s a R +8 turnout the way it’s supposed to be and not like in those commie polls.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM

It’s the economy stupid… California, official unemployment rate 10.2% unofficial but fully accepted unemployment rate 22%. The highest home foreclosure rate in the nation, over 40,000 homes this year. Gasoline, averaging $4.09 per gallon.

All Romney has to do is show up here a few times and California is going to go for Romney.

SWalker on August 22, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.

…WAIT!…all these shiny things the last couple of month? …you MEAN TO TELL ME…
.
.
.
…it’s the ECONOMY stupid…!!!
.
.
.
…who would have guessed?

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 9:37 PM

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Because healthcare providers have had to raise prices to those with private insurance or the uninsured, to make up the difference for treating Medicare/aid patients below cost.

byepartisan on August 22, 2012 at 9:37 PM

So tell us, why has the cost of private healthcare in this country risen more quickly than that of Medicare?

Seriously? Have you heard of cost-shifting?

Medicare and Medicaid spending accounts for approximately 50% of all healthcare spending in the US; however, it pays much less than 100% and, in many cases, the healthcare provider takes a loss. Thus, not only are taxpayers paying for Medicare/Medicaid, they are also paying for increases in healthcare and health insurance as a result of both programmes.

The more the government has gotten involved in the healthcare market, the more inflation we have seen. The same is true, by the way, in the education market, whose inflation rate blows healthcare’s away.

Resist We Much on August 22, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Would Slow Joe have the brains to run and be chased?

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Maybe, but ya just know that Valerie Jarrett would nail one of Slow Joe’s feet to the ground to give her a Obama a chance to escape…

I look at this crew and I think Jarrett would nail BOTH of Biden’s down, and one of Obama’s…they look increasingly desperate

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM

ROTFLMAO… Probably true… ;p

SWalker on August 22, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Will someone please say
” I’ll eat my hat ”
Just for old times sake . Ok?

Lucano on August 22, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Bayam go home find some new talking points and statistics…better ones, please. Three folks just jammed your telling point back down your throat…please spare yourself further Embarrassment.

On Topic, and to sound like Allah…as has been mentioned, the key word is RETROSPECTIVELY….Geeez, you let me toy witht he model AFTER te fact, it makes me wonder about my ability to PREDICT, not describe.

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:42 PM

I was delighted today to see a McCain/Palin bumper sticker
and two Romney bumper stickers.

All three looked like seniors.

One driving a 4×4 pickup with a disabled vet plate.

I wanted to blow the horn and wave but I thought they might think I was a kook. I’m ready for my Romney/Ryan sticker.

Very excited about the convention!

bailey24 on August 22, 2012 at 9:42 PM

different plans, different coverages etc. and choice of cost either more upfront and less co-pays and vice versa.

Medicare as we know it is unsustainable-using market foreces is the best way too control it.

gerrym51 on August 22, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Prescription drugs are simple. When you’re told by a doctor that you need 3 tests, selecting the right option is an entirely different matter. Simply changing the selection of copays and deductibles doesn’t actually make a significant difference either- it turns into a patient guessing game as to their future health problems and the type of insurance that’s best.
In countries with generous benefits but far lower healthcare costs, you typically see one of two patterns- far lower, fixed compensation to doctors or doctors on a salary that’s completely divorced from number of services ordered for their patients, with some incentive to see as many patients as possible.

Market forces are easier to summon from your armchair than actually inject into a system as complex as US healthcare. It’s hard to see how vouchers actually solve anything beyond transferring costs from one group to another.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:42 PM

“Further, as the CBO could tell ya (as it already has told the Democrats), the money they cut ‘would be used to pay for other spending and therefore would not enhance the ability of the government to pay for future Medicare benefits.’”

The hundreds of billions of dollars cut from Medicare will be used to pay for all the subsidies for health insurance that the U.S. Treasury will now be required to pay to all the former illegal alien poor (now known as legal “dreamers”) and their newly-legal family members (who are also being granted under-the-radar amnesty since it would not be “fair” to deport the families of the “dreamers,” per Janet Napolitano).

“Free” ER care is nice, but illegal aliens have long wanted their “free” mammograms, colonoscopies, vaccinations, birth control, etc., too.

AZCoyote on August 22, 2012 at 9:43 PM

308-230

crash72 on August 22, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Man, check out the LA Times comments—You can see the spittle flecks on the monitors from here

Sekhmet on August 22, 2012 at 9:44 PM

So tell us, why has the cost of private healthcare in this country risen more quickly than that of Medicare?

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Typical of someone who’s never bothered to learn the first thing about economics or health care. First is cost-shifting as more than one poster has already pointed out. Second, you might notice that both of the links you posted are talking about insurance costs, whether as their primary focus (the second link) or as a factor (the first).

Insurance is not allowed to compete across state lines under our current model, so the competition needed to drive down prices isn’t happening like it should.

Really, try to some real reading before you try to act pompous about subjects you know nothing about.

Sockpuppet Politic on August 22, 2012 at 9:45 PM

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Because healthcare providers have had to raise prices to those with private insurance or the uninsured, to make up the difference for treating Medicare/aid patients below cost.

byepartisan on August 22, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Yes you selectively paraprhase from the article I linked to… it also states that:

Other economists agree that “cost-shifting” is greatly exaggerated. In some cases, marquee hospitals are simply gouging insurers.

http://www.healthbeatblog.com/2011/05/medicare-breaks-the-inflation-curve/

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Oh come on. You can always build a model to retrospectively be correct. This is what’s known in statistics as over-fitting. And it does not mean that you’re predictive of the future..

tneloms on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

You’re absolutely right. But it does mean that for their 2012 forecast to be significantly wrong, there would have to be a factor that is 1) not accounted for by the model when looking back to 1980 and 2) its effect would overwhelm the factors already accounted for. In the audio clips, the authors say that looked at the election on a state-by-state basis, including income levels, relative unemployment and other economic data. This is not new, even Nate Silver stated in July that economic data has to be considered and “poorer economic performance tends to hurt the incumbent party’s presidential candidate.”

What factor then in your opinion are the authors not considering that is so significant their results would be off by at least 50 electoral votes (IOW an Obama victory)?

LastRick on August 22, 2012 at 9:47 PM

The fact that liberals have no idea why medicare hasn’t risen just proves they know nothing about the private and government markets… and why medicare will be gone unless we save it now.

No doctor will take medicare if the payments don’t rise. That is the real way Obama has cut the healthcare of old people. He left the “benefits” alone… but if less and less care is available what does it matter if the government says you can have benefits?

You die because of government lies. Because of Obama’s lies. You can’t live on the words out of Obama’s mouth. You need a doctor.

But hey the numbers look good on paper right? That’s all the left cares about. Hypocrites.

petunia on August 22, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Other economists agree that “cost-shifting” is greatly exaggerated. In some cases, marquee hospitals are simply gouging insurers.

And these “other economists” do they ahve names? And are you saying that Aetna is SOOOOO Stoopit, it will be “gauged?”

Honey-child it’s late and you might want to go to bed now.

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:50 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Erm, Medicare is a major component of the economy and a massive contributor to our debt/entitlement problem. Asking how Medicare affects the economy is like asking how the Afghanistan War affects the military.

Doomberg on August 22, 2012 at 9:51 PM

A month or two ago I predicted to my family and friends — via email, so it’s dated and in writing, in case I’m right — that Romney will prevail with about 300 EVs and a 2.5 to 3% national popular vote lead. So far, I’m sticking with that.

acasilaco on August 22, 2012 at 9:51 PM

Insurance is not allowed to compete across state lines under our current model, so the competition needed to drive down prices isn’t happening like it should.

Sockpuppet Politic on August 22, 2012 at 9:45 PM

Even in highly competitive state markets you see the same level of price inflation. There’s no sign that cost inflation will be contained by nation-wide competition among insurance cos.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:52 PM

I went to the CNN interactive electoral map earlier today and had Romney totaling 317 delegates, with a chance of 321 if CT flips. I didn’t need a Ph.D. either.

jan3 on August 22, 2012 at 9:52 PM

It’ll be interesting to see what the polls say a week or so after the conventions. Yeah the Republicans will spend time attacking Obama’s miserable record, but I’m sure Romney will be talking about the economy, medicare and his upcoming energy plan. The Democrats seem to be centering their convention around abortion, contraception and the Republican’s evil war on women. What else do they have to talk about? I can’t imagine any of that persuading people to vote for Obama.

supernova on August 22, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Even in highly competitive state markets you see the same level of price inflation. There’s no sign that cost inflation will be contained by nation-wide competition among insurance cos.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:52 PM

We can see in LASIK and Breast Implants, the benefits of competition, and little government control…costs are falling for both, with a range of payment plans and costs….but of course, other medicine will not respond to things like that because it is a priori DIFFERENT, right? Please explain how Elective Mdiecine is different, be thorough…

Further, as long as “Gub’mint” defines “insurance” and makes you buy a minimum policy, you will see cost distortions

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:54 PM

Bayam, you really gonna er-hash the ObamaCare Debate? Your side won the war, but lost the debate….

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:56 PM

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Hey. Nobody loves Palin more’n me.

‘Cept maybe idesign.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:34 PM

…lances or swords!…at dawn!…pick your seconds!

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Note also — the authors point this out in the audio clips — to be off by twenty points each election means to miss only one or two states each election cycle since 1980. 48 or 49 out of 50 is a pretty impressive simulation fit for the eight elections.

It also backs up the authors’ statement that even if their model is off by one or two states in 2012, it’s unlikely that would be enough for Obama/Biden: there wouldn’t be enough electoral votes in those mistaken states to drop Romney from 320 to less than 270.

LastRick on August 22, 2012 at 9:58 PM

And these “other economists” do they ahve names? And are you saying that Aetna is SOOOOO Stoopit, it will be “gauged?”

Cost shifting is the oldest excuse of the insurance industry and you can Google the topic at greater length.

I didn’t know that you were affiliated with Aetna and I didn’t mean to offend you. I’m sure it’s a great organization.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Personally, I am thinking that Romney is going to whup little barack’s hind parts so hard in this election that he will girly cry until they pry his hand off the White House front door knob.

This election will make 1984 Reagan/Mondale blowout look like a squeaker. (but I will settle for any win, any win at all). Just GET THIS POSER OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE.

DuctTapeMyBrain on August 22, 2012 at 10:05 PM

i don’t think any model from the past counts with this President.
Cause the polls would have to take the media into account. And the suppression of information. That is what is so different. And it can’t be put into any past model.

The lies and distortions are also not measurable. So as much as I’d love to believe that study, unless the GOP really steps it up and figures out how to get past the wall of the msm, we are cooked.

marnes on August 22, 2012 at 10:05 PM

I’m more hopeful of winning back the Presidency than the Senate at this point. I encourage all of you to be proactive about your own health. Expect to be in a long waiting line for a doctor, if Obamacare can’t be struck down.

Decoski on August 22, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Even in highly competitive state markets you see the same level of price inflation. There’s no sign that cost inflation will be contained by nation-wide competition among insurance cos.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Says who?

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 10:07 PM

eh…It doesn’t taken into account intangibles such as the assclown Akin nor the media’s love affair with the creep in office. For instance, its assuming Missouri is in place for RR but it doesnt account for less voters now due to the assclown. So I wouldnt rely on this.

Robb on August 22, 2012 at 10:07 PM

To add to the good news:

O’Reilly was on GBTV yesterday and said that according to the internal polls of both candidateas that if the election were held today Romney would win.

Obviously alot could change and we can’t take anything for granted but it’s nice to hear some good news.

Keep up the great work everyone, we have a country to save!

LevinFan on August 22, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Other economists agree that “cost-shifting” is greatly exaggerated. In some cases, marquee hospitals are simply gouging insurers.

http://www.healthbeatblog.com/2011/05/medicare-breaks-the-inflation-curve/

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:46 PM

Because we all know that the government gets the best deals on $800.00 hammers.

Hey, It was a Snap-On!

98ZJUSMC on August 22, 2012 at 10:09 PM

wow. CO, PA, FL and OiHO…..and maybe OH too???

ouch.

ted c on August 22, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Yes you selectively paraprhase from the article I linked to… it also states that:

Other economists agree that “cost-shifting” is greatly exaggerated. In some cases, marquee hospitals are simply gouging insurers.

http://www.healthbeatblog.com/2011/05/medicare-breaks-the-inflation-curve/

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:46 PM

1) As the commenters point out this doesn’t include drugs
2) Medicare does not cover as much as normal insurance. My father has to get supplemental insurance for 30% of his coverage
3) Medicare is broke and completely unsustainable. Insurance companies are not.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 10:15 PM

My elections prediction model which is a bit conservative shows the following:

Electoral Vote: 285 to 295 EV for Romney.

National vote result: Romney 51.33%, Obama 47.11%, others 1.66%.

My elections prediction model is based on vote by RACE. The most important metric in my prediction model is the percentage of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 and who would switch to vote for Romney in 2012. I am assuming that Obama would get in 2012 the same percentage of “Black Voters” and “Hispanic Voters” that he got in 2008. Also I am assuming that in 2012 it would be the same percentage of particitpation of each RACE as in 2008. I am using the Exit Polls data from 2008 for National and States in my elections prediction model and then assuming the percentage of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 and who would switch to vote for Romney in 2012.

mnjg on August 22, 2012 at 10:18 PM

You can always build a model to retrospectively be correct. This is what’s known in statistics as over-fitting. And it does not mean that you’re predictive of the future.

tneloms on August 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

You can also always build a model to prospectively be correct.

This is what’s known in statistics as over-sampling public opinion “polls” to favor Democrats in order to achieve a false result, solely to sway public opinion in favor of said Democrat. Hence the “polls” in the past 2 weeks with totally false D+ 19, D+ 11, and D+ 5 over-samples.

O’bama’s win in ’08 percentage-wise cannot be repeated this time, unless he gets the 30% of the high school dropout voters who did not vote for Him the first time.

And it does not mean that you’re predictive of the future.

F-

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:20 PM

I suspect the internal polling that is being held close to the chest by the Democrats, in specific the Obama campaign, is why the harshly negative attacks, and the seeking of and creation of distractions to keep talk of the economy from being the dominate narrative of this cycle.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Depends, but it IS plausible.

The reason why we sometimes have elections where both candidates end up in the 40′s, is because of the various third parties, write in votes, etc etc. In elections with relatively few of those, outcomes like 52% become a LOT more likely.

So, depends. IF Obama’s support is about as high as it can go, IF Romney’s ad blitz is at all effective, IF Romney and Ryan do well in the debates, IF there are no major world events that unexpectedly lend strength to Obama.

Yes, 52% is very plausible.

WolvenOne on August 22, 2012 at 10:23 PM

But But But… Unicorn-hopey-changey-skittle-farts! or… SOmething!

/Libtard logic

-Wasteland Man.

WastelandMan on August 22, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Chuck Todd On The Media: “The Fact Is We Are Under-Covering The Economy”
========

Democrat Perception/Deception Operation!

canopfor on August 22, 2012 at 8:58 PM


A miss!

On a related note, I love how the media keeps pushing back the window for when voters impressions of the economy will be set. First they said Obama had til mid-summer, then it was end of July, then it was August. I’m sure when the rate comes in at 8.2% in August, they will declare the picture to be muddled, and say Obama still has until the end of September to change voters’ minds. Come the end of September, they’ll be conjuring novel theories about how in a 24/7 digital news environment voters’ perceptions of the economy could shift rapidly.

Lawdawg86 on August 22, 2012 at 9:07 PM


Oh, just nicked it!

I have been saying it for months. Romney will win this election by 5 percentage points minimum, maybe as many as 10. It’s the economy people. It’s not rocket science.

dddave on August 22, 2012 at 9:17 PM


BOOM! Blew it right out of the air! We have a Winner!

canopfor was aiming in the right direction but let his attention wander.

It does NOT matter that the media is “under-covering” the economy. EVERYONE is living with the worst post-World War II recovery EVER. How are they going to be distracted from their post graduate kid living in their basement and struggling to pay off their student loans? Only the LSM has egos big enough to think what they cover will decide the election when the ECONOMY has been grinding people down for the last four years.

Lawdawg86 tracked it better but then led the target a little too much.

Does what Chuck Todd or Scott Pelley or Jake Tapper reported on last night come to the top of YOUR mind when you are paying your bills? If you HAD to go on Food Stamps for the first time in the last three years, are you going to decide the SCOAMF “just needs a little more time NOT doing anything” when it comes time to vote?

dddave showed a zen master’s focus and pulverized it with four simple words.

Everyone remembers Reagan’s “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” and Carville/Begala’s “It’s the economy, stupid.”.

No one remembers what Rather or Jennings or ANY OTHER member of the MSM said in 1980 or 1992 or 2008.

The economy is going to decide this election too.

The trolls, mobys and eeyores need to remember one last thing.

The economy can not get significantly better between now and the election.

It can, however, get MUCH worse.

PolAgnostic on August 22, 2012 at 10:25 PM

I agree completely!

They are only off a couple dozen from my last HotGas prediction!

I do think we’re looking at another Reagan/Carter landslide. All the polls they are putting out have D’s oversampled by at least
7-9. It’s the only way Barry looks like he’s even in the running.

Call me crazy (I have been called worse), but this Akin crap will go away, Jennifer Anniston will leave her lastest boyfriend, and the subject will change.

ccrosby on August 22, 2012 at 10:25 PM

http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/the_wsj_editorial_page_and_pau.php

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Bwahahaha-

Citing the Colombia School of “Journalism” won’t help you here. Just a few years ago, their Graduate “Journalism School” got a Black Eye when it became known that many of the students had actually cheated on a take home open book final exam.

Course they cheated in? Journalistic Ethics.

F-

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Did Chucky T say he would begin covering the economic issues or did he say he would report on the deaths of our service men and women? Was he dodging the economic issues?

d1carter on August 22, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Medicare is broke and completely unsustainable. Insurance companies are not.

Insurance companies may last forever but that doesn’t address the question as to how the current system will suddenly address out of control inflation.

The Ryan voucher plan enacts transfer payments far more than promise substantial reform to address costs. Medicare lacks a long-term financing plan but subjecting seniors to the true cost of healthcare inflation doesn’t actually fix anything.

I believe that free markets will eventually offer a solution, but not through the current network of insurance companies. There’s a lot of startup innovation in healthcare delivery occurring in silicon valley and NYC, funded by hundreds of millions of venture capital. It’s the free market approach to disrupt the type of malaise that’s driven the cost of healthcare in this country out of control.
http://www.avado.com/blogs/dave-chase

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Yet another PDS freak can’t help bringing up the name Palin. But yeah, it would be nice to have something other than a Hobson’s choice for sure.

And I don’t think this is about a “poll”. ‘Bots are sharp, man.

ddrintn

It puts the lotion on its skin before rubbing one out to Palin again.

HA!

xblade on August 22, 2012 at 10:29 PM

All Romney has to do is show up here a few times and California is going to go for Romney.

SWalker on August 22, 2012 at 9:37 PM

ROFL…talk about delusional.

It puts the lotion on its skin before rubbing one out to Palin again.

HA!

xblade on August 22, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Eeeeeew…TMI from the obsessive Palin freakazoid.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Duration: Past 18 weeks

States Visited: 19

Miles traveled: 7,583

Total number of Blightbringer/Chains-2012 bumper stickers seen: 0

Landslide victory: Priceless

hillsoftx on August 22, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Obviously when marketing hoods to Kl@nspersons and the FRC you don’t get a chance to see many Obama/Biden 2012 Stickers, but here in REAL Amerikkka (Liberal College Town) you see many and I am convinced that hardly anyone I know will vote for those mean-spirited, heartless, radical, extremist mother-hating Republicans, and I predict a landslide for Truh and Light(working).

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM


19 states – electoral college votes = 250+

1 college town – electoral college votes = 0

Realitypriceless

PolAgnostic on August 22, 2012 at 10:32 PM

This model recognizs one major point the media pollsters and pundits overlook; on RCP Obam is averaging about 47.5% of the vote as the incumbent, that leaves 52.5% for Romney.

Almost identical to the articles 52.9% prediction.

Tater Salad on August 22, 2012 at 10:35 PM

All those who think that Minnesota is impossible for Romney I will give you the following stastics. If 15% of the “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 switch and vote for Romney in 2012 then Romney is going to win Minnesoata…Not impossible by any strech of imagination..

mnjg on August 22, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Duration: Past 18 weeks

States Visited: 19

Miles traveled: 7,583

Total number of Blightbringer/Chains-2012 bumper stickers seen: 0

Landslide victory: Priceless

hillsoftx on August 22, 2012 at 9:15 PM

So how many Romney bunmper stickers did you see?

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Other economists agree that “cost-shifting” is greatly exaggerated. In some cases, marquee hospitals are simply gouging insurers.

http://www.healthbeatblog.com/2011/05/medicare-breaks-the-inflation-curve/

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:46 PM

lol, your link cites exactly one economic report, and the rest is links to blogs probably run by Krugman’s chums.

And also, the author of the piece you link isn’t exactly an “economist”. From your link:

Before she began writing about health care, Mahar was a financial journalist and wrote for Barron’s, Time Inc., The New York Times and other publications. (Her first book, Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust 1982-2003 (Harper Collins, 2003) was recommended by Warren Buffet in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report. For more on her books, click here.

In an earlier career, Mahar was an English professor at Yale University where she taught 19th and 20th century literature.

She’s also a fave of Far Left Impaired Driver Bill Moyers.

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/blog/2009/08/ask_maggie_mahar.html

Yup, Impeccable Economic Credentials!

Good Solid B+

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Even in highly competitive state markets you see the same level of price inflation. There’s no sign that cost inflation will be contained by nation-wide competition among insurance cos.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Err, each individual State has different regulations, so the costs for each will always be different.

Z—–

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:38 PM

You can also always build a model to prospectively be correct.

This is what’s known in statistics as over-sampling public opinion “polls” to favor Democrats in order to achieve a false result, solely to sway public opinion in favor of said Democrat. Hence the “polls” in the past 2 weeks with totally false D+ 19, D+ 11, and D+ 5 over-samples.

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Hilarious. One rationale for nominating Romney was that Dems will love him, so why all the carping over Dem oversampling?
F-

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

I believe that free markets will eventually offer a solution, but not through the current network of insurance companies.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 10:28 PM

The issue is that we have a convoluted network of private and public insurance companies that compete for resources and completely pervert the laws of supply and demand. Medicare’s solution is to simply pay doctors and hospitals less.

They pay so little they now have to stop the cost cutting. Hence a doc fix every single year since 1997. The latest was paid for in part by taking billions from Medicaid. So the very liberal programs you celebrate redistributes wealth away from those who need it the most to those who vote the most.

If Congress actually implemented the current cuts mandated by law, reimbursement rates to doctors and hospitals would drop by a third and be lower than Medicaid rates. I had inlaws once on Medicaid. They just went to the ER- no doctor would see them.

So if caregivers take a loss on the government run programs, where do they recoup the money? That’s right- private insurance providers. Which is exactly why you have seen prices drop in medical markets like cosmetic surgery where neither government or insurance companies intrude.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Brayam….all you do is post one fallacious piece of bs after another. How embarrassing.

CW on August 22, 2012 at 10:42 PM

hawkdriver still calling it like this …

Romney 390
Obama 148

hawkdriver on June 22, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Count it!

hawkdriver on August 22, 2012 at 10:43 PM

I love how the Brayams of the world want to pretend that the free market has failed in medicine has failed to contain costs when we have not had a free market in years. Brayam and its ilk have perverted the system with its governmental health plans. So please quit with these lies and distortions.

CW on August 22, 2012 at 10:44 PM

After a while you find the site might not be worth hanging around much anymore anyway. As I’m finding this site to be. Lots of work here anyway so not much time to comment here much anymore as well.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Hilarious. One rationale for nominating Romney was that Dems will love him, so why all the carping over Dem oversampling?
F-

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Couldn’t even make it through the night?

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Hilarious. One rationale for nominating Romney was that Dems will love him, so why all the carping over Dem oversampling?
F-

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Hey, Kid, Gary Johnson is God, but he’ll only get 0.5% of the popular vote.

O’bama thanks you for your support!

Z—–

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Heh two posts directed at Brayam that used the word perverted……hmmm.

CW on August 22, 2012 at 10:46 PM

All Romney has to do is show up here a few times and California is going to go for Romney.

SWalker

Yep, and he’s going to win the black vote, the hispanic vote, and the jew vote too. Not. A Republican presidential candidate will never again carry California. New York neither.

xblade on August 22, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Hilarious. One rationale for nominating Romney was that Dems will love him, so why all the carping over Dem oversampling?
F-

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Weird never heard that here. Me thinks you make up shite.

Hey where you been loser? Probably finally got decked by someone in your real life that tired of your crap.

CW on August 22, 2012 at 10:47 PM

It puts the lotion on its skin before rubbing one out to Palin again.

HA!

xblade on August 22, 2012 at 10:29 PM

LOL !!!!!

LevinFan on August 22, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Can anyone name one state that didn’t vote for obaka that will vote for him this time?

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

A few days ago I would have agreed with your premise, but like it or not I think we now have to consider Missouri to be in play.

IamDA on August 22, 2012 at 10:51 PM

Which is exactly why you have seen prices drop in medical markets like cosmetic surgery where neither government or insurance companies intrude.

True, yet those are elective procedures with a large number of independent practitioners actively competing.

I love how the Brayams of the world want to pretend that the free market has failed in medicine has failed to contain costs when we have not had a free market in years.

Will a freer market reduce costs by deciding that granny doesn’t need the latest generation of traumatic healthcare intended to save the lives of a young person from a car crash, not extend the live of a dying 90 year old by 2 weeks?

Supply is another issue. In most mid-sized cities, you might have two large nephrology practices at most supporting all the regional hospitals and medical centers. Neither practice is motivated to undercut the other on price nor is that necessary with so few players in the market.

It’s easy to espouse free market principles and ignore the realities that dictate how different markets operate.
Steve Jobs, Eric Schmidt, and other great entrepreneurs who have thought deeply to understand these complex markets often build great businesses that transform the status quo. Hopefully the same will happen in healthcare.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Weird never heard that here. Me thinks you make up shite.

Hey where you been loser? Probably finally got decked by someone in your real life that tired of your crap.

CW on August 22, 2012 at 10:47 PM

You’d think that would maybe raise his IQ up a few points but I doubt it!

LevinFan on August 22, 2012 at 11:03 PM

True, yet those are elective procedures with a large number of independent practitioners actively competing.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 10:57 PM

No different than all the elective procedures covered by insurance and Medicare A and B, at least in part. Hip replacement for example. These are exactly the sort of health care that is heavily rationed in countries like Canada. Costs are exploding.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 11:05 PM

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