Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes

posted at 8:41 pm on August 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.

Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?

Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…

Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.

Meanwhile, in the poll of polls

Of the last 10 national polls, two have Obama up by four points, three have him up by just one or two points, and the rest have the race either tied or with Romney ahead. The swing states are moving towards Romney too: Yesterday it was Michigan and Wisconsin, today it’s Nevada, where Obama’s lead has shrunk to two. I’m awfully curious to see where the polls are at this time next month, after Romney finally gets his formal introduction to undecideds at the convention and he and the RNC start to plow all of that cash they’ve stockpiled into negative ads. I’m skeptical that he can win by as large a margin as the model cited above imagines, but who knows what a terrible jobs report in October might mean?

Exit question: Can you spot the super-secret connection between the Bickers/Berry model and this clip? Click the image to listen.


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Allah Is that You?

ConcealedKerry on August 22, 2012 at 8:44 PM

We will win.

Momentum, baby.

BacaDog on August 22, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including…Minnesota…

Here’s where I got skeptical.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Happy. Very, very happy.

BettyRuth on August 22, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Yeah, but what about Clay Aikin and Legitimate Rape???

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

does that model include voter fraud?

obama can win in PA and OH and MO and NV and NM and FL and WI with fraud.

reliapundit on August 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

CO., MN, and FL.? Really?

JamesSeanMcKeane on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Pennsylvania. One word. COAL.

GarandFan on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

IMPOSTER.

Someone has kidnapped Allahpundit and is impersonating him. Time to call 911.

Johnimus on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Yeah, but what about Clay Aikin and Legitimate Rape???

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Using the last election and the 50 state gallup favorability gives a very close result to the above.

Bottom line. Toast!

deadite on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Who is posting under the name Allah???

The Notorious G.O.P on August 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Mandate?

LtGenRob on August 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Minnesota hasn’t gone GOP since 1972. Longest active Dem streak going.

Bitter Clinger on August 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes

52.9%????
Dudes…..

We may win this time…
But the glass is almost half empty…

Electrongod on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

N’uh-Uh…Nate Silver says, Obama wins! Wingnutz!

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

You guys lose on both.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Chucky T is so unbiased and knowledgeable too…

d1carter on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

That sounds about right actually.

People are not paying enough attention to the turnout problems with the polls. Not only did Gallup find a 38-point swing in enthusiasm in the GOP ‘s favor since, the Dems have lost ten times as many registered party members in swing states.

This is looking like an R+3 election. That means Romney will probably get around 53% of the vote and upwards of 300 EVs.

TallDave on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy.

I think the problem with this model is that previous elections were white guy vs white guy. I think a black guy will get a little more leeway because the people hurting the most will also identify with him the most.

I think this election will be very close though.

ninjapirate on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Mandate, baby!

Um, barack? I won.

Rational Thought on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

*since 2008

TallDave on August 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Landslide. Jug ears is going to be kicked from here to Indonesia. He won’t know what hit him.

rrpjr on August 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Such mathematical forget the role of the media and how they will do anything for an Obama win. I honestly don’t believe they will allow Romney to win.

Zaggs on August 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Mandate Mondale?

LtGenRob on August 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Minnesota hasn’t gone GOP since 1972. Longest active Dem streak going.

Bitter Clinger on August 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

A state that voted for Jesse Ventura and Stuart Smalley and voted against Reagan twice. They are beyond help.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

JamesSeanMcKeane on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Florida..yes. We have a good shot here buddy.
Cant say about CO..but MN? Would be crazy good.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Turnout…and the legacy media is doing all they can to blunt it…

d1carter on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I’ve been saying 311 electoral votes for a while now. I’m feeling more comfortable about my chosen number.

Othniel on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Pennsylvania. One word. COAL.

GarandFan on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Absolutely positively. I live in PA and you should see our electricity bills this summer because of the War on Coal. Mitt, you can win here.

Philly on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Florida..yes. We have a good shot here

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Good shot? You tell me how many obaka stickers YOU see.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

obama can win in PA and OH and MO and NV and NM and FL and WI with fraud.

reliapundit on August 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

PA, OH and FL now have voter ID, IIRC.

So does WI, but a judge has blocked it.

Wethal on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

La la la i cant hear you
-lsm

cmsinaz on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive.

Lack of economic opportunity, coal mines, bitter clingers…. I’d say PA is more in play than the models suggest. I’m not saying that it will turn red BUT all the models about voting patterns fail to take stuff like the rat-eared bastard’s war on coal into consideration when coming to their conclusions.

Happy Nomad on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Obama will win MN though. We have soooo many stupid people here.

Othniel on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Allah, you weren’t supposed to eat THOSE brownies…

NerwenAldarion on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

I know your question is funny but it brings up a very ligitimate questions (pun intended. The Dems are going to make their convention about abortion. Let them show the wonders of killing children in the womb.

The quetion of what happens to the woman and her child when she is raped is what we should be focusing on from Aikin’s statments. Do we support killing the product of rape because it is the product of rape? Let the dems own that they want to kill children just because those children are the product of rape.

talking_mouse on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

I don’t know about Minnesota, but the rest seem doable.

Doughboy on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

That is so baller.

Red Cloud on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…

NC: yes
VA: maybe, maybe not
NH: no
CO: probably not
WI: maybe, but I doubt it
MN: no
PA: probably not
OH: maybe, maybe not
FL: maybe, maybe not

Stoic Patriot on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Rise of the bitter clingers.

mike_NC9 on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Pennsylvania. One word. COAL.

GarandFan on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Mrs. Romney is a coal miner’s granddaughter

timmytee on August 22, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Minnesota hasn’t gone GOP since 1972. Longest active Dem streak going.

Bitter Clinger on August 22, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Yeah yeah yeah rub it in.

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 8:55 PM

A state that voted for Jesse Ventura

Guilty as charged. Hey, under him the vehicle license tag fees were a flat $99. I paid $400 for one car this year.

and Stuart Smalley

Not on your life. I’m not convinced he won that race fair and square.

and voted against Reagan twice. They are beyond help.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

I was 2 and 6 respectively. And living in Indiana. So neener.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 8:56 PM

..that humming sound you hear is the Death Star being cycled through its initial checkout phase.

The War Planner on August 22, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Obama will win MN though. We have soooo many stupid people here.

Othniel on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

and a State GOP that is horrendous.

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Wait.. I thought Akin destroyed all this.

JellyToast on August 22, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Chuck Todd On The Media: “The Fact Is We Are Under-Covering The Economy”
========

Democrat Perception/Deception Operation!

canopfor on August 22, 2012 at 8:58 PM

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Good shot? You tell me how many obaka stickers YOU see.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Depends were I go on my travels statewide.

I commented today..in my area..stark contrast from the last election.
I aint seeing the love in my neck of the woods.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 8:58 PM

N’uh-Uh…Nate Silver says, Obama wins! Wingnutz!

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Ah Allahs back don’t pay the ransom!

ConcealedKerry on August 22, 2012 at 8:58 PM

52.9%????
Dudes…..

We may win this time…
But the glass is almost half empty…

Electrongod on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Meh. It’s the EC that counts & you can’t expect the sheer number of Obama voters in places like CA & NY to be overcome too easily. A popular vote win and EC win for Romney is huge, IMO.

Also, IMO, 52.9% of the popular vote is the worst case scenario for Romney, a number I find very doubtful given Dem voter enthusiasm compared to Rep voter enthusiasm. I’d bet Obama gets no more than 44% of the popular vote with Romney getting 56%. This whole “it’s going to be a super close election” is a b.s. death rattle by the Dems to try to rally their base — I think it’s going to be a landslide for Romney.

Dark Star on August 22, 2012 at 8:59 PM

How much of a cushion will Romney need to make up for voter fraud?

The dead people, Disney characters, pets, voters bused in from other states like Oiho.

bailey24 on August 22, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Imma go get a Rmoney sticker tomorrow.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Speaking of Ohio,a side note!!

Team Hopey,screws up the spelling of, Ohio??

A word of advice to @BarackObama: it’s “O-H-I-O” that has 18 electoral votes, not “O-I-H-O” pic.twitter.com/babXzAtp

https://twitter.com/CHRISMAL0NEY/status/238283278925328384/photo/1

VIA:

Can Obama spell Ohio?
on August 22, 2012 at 11:53 am
*******************************

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/08/22/yes-obama-can-spell-ohio/

canopfor on August 22, 2012 at 9:02 PM

I see Pennsylvania going to Romney well before Minnesota (coal, Reagan Democrats, Catholics, the new voter ID law). If Romney takes Minnesota then I see a much bigger landslide.

Teacher in Tejas on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

talking_mouse on August 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Yes, the dems are going to triple down on the War Against Women! And what is so ironically, hilarious and funny, is that their great keynote speaker at this grand convention for womenz, is going to be none other then William Jefferson Clinton, the rapist, sexual harasser piece of scum. You could not write such a grand plot.

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

By the way everybody, Obama’s lead in the RCP average is inching back down to 1% again, so expect a couple pre-convention D+20 polls showing the jerk up 52-43 to shift the numbers.

Gingotts on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

N’uh-Uh…Nate Silver says, Obama wins! Wingnutz!

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I know you’re being snarky about Silver’s liberalism but I’m pretty sure he hasn’t gone so far as to say “Obama’s got this”. Recently especially, he’s pointed out Romney’s momentum both nationally and in swing states and has referenced the cash/ad advantage.

LastRick on August 22, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Awesome! Every leftist I know says computer models can’t be wrong.

Transpo on August 22, 2012 at 9:05 PM

TallDave on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

That e-book that came out this week talked about the rat-eared bastard’s concern over volunteers and campus activity.

All those college students that supported Obama in 2008 are living at home becuase they can’t find a job. There was a story in the news today about how many people with a BA are in retail clothing sales making less than $20K/year. These were the same folk that were chanting O-BAM-A four years ago. Dems definitely have an enthusiasm gap to overcome.

Obama won the Presidency with high expectations that partisan whores like Axelrod and Cutter did not temper with reality. Obama himself declared that he could turn back the seas. Supporters thought that they would no longer have to pay for gas or their mortgages. In short, Obama failed to deliver the vision of his last campaign. So he’s happy when distractions like Todd Akin show up to flood the media with something other than his own failures.

Happy Nomad on August 22, 2012 at 9:05 PM

52.9%????
Dudes…..

We may win this time…
But the glass is almost half empty…

Electrongod on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

For historical reference (from Wikipedia):

1984 Presidential Election

Reagan: 525 electoral votes, 58.8%
Mondale: 13 electoral votes, 40.6%

So, 52.9% ain’t shabby.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 9:06 PM

…and BOOM goes the dynamite!

stefanite on August 22, 2012 at 9:06 PM

I think it’s going to be a landslide for Romney.

Dark Star on August 22, 2012 at 8:59 PM

I do too..
But I fear that in another 10 years, we will go through this again…

Electrongod on August 22, 2012 at 9:06 PM

I see Pennsylvania going to Romney well before Minnesota (coal, Reagan Democrats, Catholics, the new voter ID law). If Romney takes Minnesota then I see a much bigger landslide.

Teacher in Tejas on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

If Romney wins Minnesota, Obama’ll win DC AND THAT’S IT.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Minnesota? Really?

I still think Romney will win in a landslide, but I don’t think Minnesota will be part of it.

On a related note, I love how the media keeps pushing back the window for when voters impressions of the economy will be set. First they said Obama had til mid-summer, then it was end of July, then it was August. I’m sure when the rate comes in at 8.2% in August, they will declare the picture to be muddled, and say Obama still has until the end of September to change voters’ minds. Come the end of September, they’ll be conjuring novel theories about how in a 24/7 digital news environment voters’ perceptions of the economy could shift rapidly.

Lawdawg86 on August 22, 2012 at 9:07 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Delusional, they name is bayam. Selecting Rep. Ryan as a running-mate puts the economy front and center in all debates for the remainder of this campaign. To think otherwise is some kind of serious voodoo, or perhaps you should check your med alarm, you might be overdue. Whatever the cause, it’s irrational to say that the economic policy wonk who most disturbs progressives will be responsible for the debate moving AWAY from the economy.

Oh, yes, Obama and his crew will try to steer everything away from the economy, because they know that Ryan will hand them their backsides every chance he gets. But one side alone does not drive the narrative. That time is coming to a close.

Freelancer on August 22, 2012 at 9:08 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Medicare is very much tied to the economy. Ryan’s changes to medicare are part of his budget plan. Btw other than stealing $700 billion from Medicare, what is Obama’s plan for preventing it’s insolvency?

hopeful on August 22, 2012 at 9:08 PM

I heard this on Fox tonight and then found the study and read it..very interesting. I hope they are right this time too.

Terrye on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

William Jefferson Clinton, the rapist, sexual harasser piece of scum. You could not write such a grand plot.

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

No you couldn’t. The selective outrage and hypocrisy from leftist women blows my mind.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

If Romney wins Minnesota, Obama’ll win DC AND THAT’S IT.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 9:07 PM

If Romney wins Minnesota – there won’t be any republicans alive to enjoy it as they all will drop dead from shock LOL!

Speaking of Romney – I think he’s in town tomorrow for fundraisers. Sure wish it was an event.

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

their great keynote speaker at this grand convention for womenz, is going to be none other then William Jefferson Clinton, the rapist, sexual harasser piece of scum. You could not write such a grand plot.

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Sandra Fluke is also speaking and since the HHS mandate has gone into effect, I’m sure she is awash in the condoms and birth control pills she was demanding. A satisfied slut is the perfect speaker for the convention. Which, of course, resembles the Star Wars bar scene.

Happy Nomad on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

If I’m not mistaken, every incumbent who was re elected won more EVs than the first time.

Can anyone name one state that didn’t vote for obaka that will vote for him this time?

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

..that humming sound you hear is the Death Star being cycled through its initial checkout phase.

The War Planner on August 22, 2012 at 8:56 PM

sounds like earwax to me. a little peroxide might just clear that right up.

renalin on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I

think the problem with this model is that previous elections were white guy vs white guy. I think a black guy will get a little more leeway because the people hurting the most will also identify with him the most.

I think this election will be very close though.

ninjapirate on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I can only say that my son-in-law is a black, Obama supporter. He told me last week he’s voting for Romney. I about fell over.

Reason: Obama giving amnesty to the illegal aliens. On top of the stupid move to remove the work requirement from welfare.

I think 2010 was only the appetizer. PEOPLE ARE FED UP !

stenwin77 on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

there won’t be any republicans alive to enjoy it as they all will drop dead from shock LOL!

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

LOLz!

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I take exception to al those ‘stealing elections” talk, BTW. It undermines the basis for governance…I don’t like it when Leftists talk Diebold and “Vote Suppression” and it’s no better when we do it….

Franken, mayhap, but that’s like complaining about a ref’s call in a close game, IF your team had played better, the ref’s call wouldn’t have made any difference. Norm Coleman didn’t get enough votes and a few hundred mattered, if he’d have done better, chosen more wisely, raised more money, he’d still be there.

There aren’t enough dead votes, Mickey Mouse Characters, Illegals to shift an election, generally. If Romney loses by a few hundred votes, well ask yourself what we did wrong, rather than saying, “We was robbed.” Because when both sides say it, long enough, you don’t have a democracy any more you just have a Weimar Republic, with no legitimacy.

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

R/R are winning the Medicare debate. For example, in WI, R/R are up 9 with seniors.

The Romney Plan does not affect seniors, nor does the Ryan Plan. “The Obama Plan” is already law and the $716 billion in cuts to Medicare are already law. In fact, Obama has said that he will veto any legislation that would reverse those cuts.

Oh, and PUHLEASE do not come back with that silliness that the cuts only affect healthcare providers and won’t affect the government’s ability to pay future Medicare benefits. I’ve already dealt with that idiocy here:

“D” Doesn’t Stand For Democrat — It Stands For “D’Oh!”

Resist We Much on August 22, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Minnesota is a swing state?

I do think Mitt will win

Oiho [sic]
North Carolina
Virginia
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Wisconsin
Michigan (by a whisker)

SouthernGent on August 22, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Minnesota? Those nutters would probably go for Johnson before they would Romney. Senator Al Franken, anyone?

I would be happy with 270…don’t care how he gets there.

changer1701 on August 22, 2012 at 9:12 PM

…leftist women blows my mind.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

So, in other words, broads who weren’t gonna vote for Rmoney anyway.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:12 PM

and a State GOP that is horrendous.

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 8:57 PM

This. Minnesota has gone Republican in statewide elections several times and has a Republican legislature now. The state GOP here has been horribly bad. The new chairman (Pat Shortridge) is talented and I expect he’ll have things running very well in 2014, but it’s gonna take a miracle in 2012.

Mr. D on August 22, 2012 at 9:12 PM

If Romney wins Minnesota, Obama’ll win DC AND THAT’S IT.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 9:07 PM

The DC GOP holds their convention in a booth at the IHOP. There is more hope for MN. But not much when you factor in the lizard people.

Happy Nomad on August 22, 2012 at 9:13 PM

William Jefferson Clinton, the rapist, sexual harasser piece of scum. You could not write such a grand plot.

the new aesthetic on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

No you couldn’t. The selective outrage and hypocrisy from leftist women blows my mind.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

As long as his victims can get abortions, the feminists don’t care.

Wethal on August 22, 2012 at 9:14 PM

stenwin77 on August 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

HA!
My lawn guys wife is Mexican..she was a Hillary then Zero voter. Romney this time. Why? The zero’s amnesty..according to him..pretty PO’d she and her family stood in line and followed the law.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Mr. D on August 22, 2012 at 9:12 PM

I just hope we hold onto the House. I don’t want Mark Dayton to see any light at all.

Voter ID passing is key. If it passes this year – I think we turn a lot more purple than we ever have.

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Duration: Past 18 weeks

States Visited: 19

Miles traveled: 7,583

Total number of Blightbringer/Chains-2012 bumper stickers seen: 0

Landslide victory: Priceless

hillsoftx on August 22, 2012 at 9:15 PM

So, in other words, broads who weren’t gonna vote for Rmoney anyway.

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:12 PM

Pretty much.
But as a woman..I have about zero respect for those types.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:16 PM

PA and MN — I doubt it. NH maybe

I’d happily take 269 EV followed by a Congressional tie breaking vote and call it a mandating landslide.

KW64 on August 22, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Just so you all know if Minnesota does go Romney – I’m gloating on here for at least a week ;)

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 9:16 PM

For historical reference (from Wikipedia):

1984 Presidential Election

Reagan: 525 electoral votes, 58.8%
Mondale: 13 electoral votes, 40.6%

So, 52.9% ain’t shabby.

El Dillo on August 22, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Also Reagan only got 50.7 in 1980, granted Anderson probably took 2-3% points away from him.

midgeorgian on August 22, 2012 at 9:17 PM

I have been saying it for months. Romney will win this election by 5 percentage points minimum, maybe as many as 10. It’s the economy people. It’s not rocket science.

dddave on August 22, 2012 at 9:17 PM

I’d happily take 269 EV followed by a Congressional tie breaking vote and call it a mandating landslide.

KW64 on August 22, 2012 at 9:16 PM

In that case, the Senate chooses the VP.

Romney/Biden?

Lanceman on August 22, 2012 at 9:18 PM

R/R are winning the Medicare debate.

Resist We Much on August 22, 2012 at 9:11 PM

RWM,

THANK YOU. You’ve made an important point.

The Dems were giddy over the Ryan selection and thought that they could make him an albatross around Romney’s neck within two weeks. It has been eleven days and there is no indication that the choice was wrong.

Happy Nomad on August 22, 2012 at 9:18 PM

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

As long as his victims can get abortions, the feminists don’t care.

Wethal on August 22, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Sadly, your right.

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:18 PM

But what about Medicare? It makes you wonder even more the decision-making behind the choice of a VP candidate that could have no other effect than to push the debate away from the economy.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Medicare is very much tied to the economy. Ryan’s changes to medicare are part of his budget plan. Btw other than stealing $700 billion from Medicare, what is Obama’s plan for preventing it’s insolvency?

hopeful on August 22, 2012 at 9:08 PM

I agree that on the surface some plan is better than no plan, but a voucher system doesn’t do much to attack the underlying cost problem and poorly aligned cost incentives among doctors. A few extra tests or specialist referrals a week can pay for a summer vacation home as some doctors have pointed out.

You could do the same with US spending on roads and bridges- build out toll roads everywhere. The underlying cost to society doesn’t change but those who pay the most does. That’s really all that Ryan’s plan achieves.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Duration: Past 18 weeks

States Visited: 19

Miles traveled: 7,583

Total number of Blightbringer/Chains-2012 bumper stickers seen: 0

Landslide victory: Priceless

hillsoftx on August 22, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Obviously when marketing hoods to Kl@nspersons and the FRC you don’t get a chance to see many Obama/Biden 2012 Stickers, but here in REAL Amerikkka (Liberal College Town) you see many and I am convinced that hardly anyone I know will vote for those mean-spirited, heartless, radical, extremist mother-hating Republicans, and I predict a landslide for Truh and Light(working).

JFKY on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM

The dead people, Disney characters, pets, voters bused in from other states like Oiho.

bailey24 on August 22, 2012 at 9:01 PM

I have it on good authority that Scrooge McDuck is a Republican. Can’t say the same for that slacker Donald.

McDuck on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM

I see Pennsylvania going to Romney well before Minnesota (coal, Reagan Democrats, Catholics, the new voter ID law). If Romney takes Minnesota then I see a much bigger landslide.

Teacher in Tejas on August 22, 2012 at 9:03 PM

LOL. Romney’s not winning either of those. IF Romney wins, it will only be skin-of-the-teeth a la Bush in 2004. And that is if Romney wins OH, FL, VA and NC. I don’t see a guy who’s stuck in the mid-40s nationally becoming a Reagan down the stretch and pulling off some fantasy landslide. But whatever fantasy gets you through, I guess.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Just so you all know if Minnesota does go Romney – I’m gloating on here for at least a week ;)

gophergirl on August 22, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Girl, you deserve to gloat for a year straight!

bazil9 on August 22, 2012 at 9:20 PM

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