Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes

posted at 8:41 pm on August 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.

Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?

Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.

Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…

Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.

I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.

Meanwhile, in the poll of polls

Of the last 10 national polls, two have Obama up by four points, three have him up by just one or two points, and the rest have the race either tied or with Romney ahead. The swing states are moving towards Romney too: Yesterday it was Michigan and Wisconsin, today it’s Nevada, where Obama’s lead has shrunk to two. I’m awfully curious to see where the polls are at this time next month, after Romney finally gets his formal introduction to undecideds at the convention and he and the RNC start to plow all of that cash they’ve stockpiled into negative ads. I’m skeptical that he can win by as large a margin as the model cited above imagines, but who knows what a terrible jobs report in October might mean?

Exit question: Can you spot the super-secret connection between the Bickers/Berry model and this clip? Click the image to listen.


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I have Romney’s Electoral College votes at:
331 +/- 10.

I’m of the mindset that when it comes to the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans should GAIN seats, especially in light of the redistricting that in many cases should make things more favorable for Republicans… several seats that were safely Democrat for the last decade are now competitive. So, I’ll be surprised if Republicans do not gain seats in the house.

Now, if I make an assumption (a wild duck assumption, for sure, but I think worthy of at least consideration) that the party that wins a majority of U.S. House seats in a given state will also win the Electoral College votes for that state, then how does the Electoral College map look for 2012?

I used the 2010 U.S. House winners to come up with the following map:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ouZ

ITguy on August 22, 2012 at 11:07 PM

All Romney has to do is show up here a few times and California is going to go for Romney.

SWalker

California is a lost cause. It’s the New York (State) of the West coast. The only way California becomes competitive in the near future is if the state is split into two states.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 11:08 PM

I’m not as skeptical of the results as I am with the model. With a retrospective model, it is possible to match data
arbitrarily closely, even if the independent variables are irrelavent, if enough independent variables are chosen.

burt on August 22, 2012 at 11:09 PM

The best predictions computing power and biased inputs could make say we should have no ice in the artic by now and that snow would be a thing of the past for all Americans…

astonerii on August 22, 2012 at 11:13 PM

I have Romney’s Electoral College votes at:
331 +/- 10.

<<<>>>

I used the 2010 U.S. House winners to come up with the following map:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ouZ

ITguy on August 22, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Romney’s ceiling electorally is around 350, give or take. However there are reports that Obama is weak in Illinois, and if he under-performs in Cook County, the state is probably lost to him. Unless Obama blows it at the debates and/or the convention, then Romney could theoretically get close to 400, if not over. There’s a lot of ifs, but if Romney carries Illinois, he’s probably carrying New Jersey and either Connecticut or Delaware.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 11:17 PM

The RCP polls of polls are still weighting that joke poll from early August from NY Times/Quinnipiac that oversampled Dems by10 points n OH and FL.

If you look at LV votes polls since 8/13, R2 is ties or up in:

FL
OH
WI
IO
NC
VA

Once the the Rs have their convention and the older polls are dropped from the polls of polls, R2 will be ahead. And people who haven’t been paying attention will say it was “unexpected.”

johnboy on August 22, 2012 at 11:23 PM

I suspect the internal polling that is being held close to the chest by the Democrats, in specific the Obama campaign, is why the harshly negative attacks, and the seeking of and creation of distractions to keep talk of the economy from being the dominate narrative of this cycle.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Well, O’bama could never run on his “record” over the past 4 years to begin with, so he had no choice but to Go Chicago.

And the increased shrillness since Friday the 13th confirms it.

Del Dolemonte on August 22, 2012 at 11:24 PM

The RCP polls of polls are still weighting that joke poll from early August from NY Times/Quinnipiac that oversampled Dems by10 points n OH and FL.

If you look at LV votes polls since 8/13, R2 is ties or up in:

FL
OH
WI
IO
NC
VA

Once the the Rs have their convention and the older polls are dropped from the polls of polls, R2 will be ahead. And people who haven’t been paying attention will say it was “unexpected.”

johnboy on August 22, 2012 at 11:23 PM

I hope you’re right.

I’ve bee cautiously optimistic. I’ve thought all along Romney will win but I’m not taking anything for granted. Still plan on doing everything I can to help no matter what.

LevinFan on August 22, 2012 at 11:32 PM

Once the the Rs have their convention and the older polls are dropped from the polls of polls, R2 will be ahead. And people who haven’t been paying attention will say it was “unexpected.”

johnboy on August 22, 2012 at 11:23 PM

Washoe County, NV was a perfect bellwether for Nevada down to about .5% in the past 2 presidential elections and Reid/Angle.

2010
Washoe 50/45 Reid
Nevada 50/45 Reid

2008
Washoe 55/43 Obama
Nevada 55/43 Obama

2004
Washoe 51/47 Bush
Nevada 51/47 Kerry

Romney’s up 52/41 in today’s LV Review-Journal poll in Washoe, FWIW.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 11:41 PM

Romney’s up 52/41 in today’s LV Review-Journal poll in Washoe, FWIW.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 11:41 PM

If the RNC and the Romney campaign can replicate the Bush 2004 win, that’s fine, and it will work, but we have a Senate we want to flip – that’s means taking risks with funds and potentially flipping presumably “safe” Democrats in the Senate. If those risks pay off, then it stands to reason the electoral count can climb as well.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 11:53 PM

That the popular vote would be even that close speaks volumes about how far this country has fallen that so many would re-elect Obama.

Yakko77 on August 22, 2012 at 11:54 PM

If the RNC and the Romney campaign can replicate the Bush 2004 win, that’s fine, and it will work, but we have a Senate we want to flip – that’s means taking risks with funds and potentially flipping presumably “safe” Democrats in the Senate. If those risks pay off, then it stands to reason the electoral count can climb as well.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 11:53 PM

2004 should obviously say Bush on Nevada as well.

Chuck Schick on August 22, 2012 at 11:56 PM

Hilarious. One rationale for nominating Romney was that Dems will love him, so why all the carping over Dem oversampling?
F-

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Hey Moron, how about a sampling that will give poll watcher’s, and the American people, actual numbers that reflect the truth?

Oh wait, you’re a lib, the truth is second to all else…

ccrosby on August 23, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Pennsylvania? No, just can’t buy it. Keystone is that mermaid singing sirens each election year that just winds up biting us.

Now, Iowa…..Wisconsin…..even Michigan…….they got me wonderin’ this year. I don’t know how people engaged in making a living from the land can possibly vote for the Socialist, confiscationist, over-regulating, anti-private ownership party but Iowa too often has. Much the same for Cheeseland. Michigan’s demographic changes and state electoral history of late can’t be dismissed. Much like Cheeseland here too.

JoeinTX on August 23, 2012 at 12:10 AM

That the popular vote would be even that close speaks volumes about how far this country has fallen that so many would re-elect Obama.

Yakko77 on August 22, 2012 at 11:54 PM

There are a lot of people living on federal benefits who should not be, and they tend to vote for whoever will tell them they are victims instead of parasites.

Adjoran on August 23, 2012 at 12:33 AM

I live in the Philadelphia suburbs, specifically Bucks county and during 2008 there were Obama yard signs all over the place, which surprised me somewhat then. I haven’t seen one yet this year and everyone I talk with can’t stand Obama. There’s an awful lot of votes in this area. This is a typical, hard working American area.

OxyCon on August 23, 2012 at 12:39 AM

Michigan went quite red in 2010 and got a very favorable redistricting at all government levels for the first time in DECADES. Michigan will be more of a battle ground state moving forward. With all of the UAW jobs decimated in this state, there isn’t a high concentration of blue collar workers here anymore. Many of the old timers have retired and moved south so they don’t vote here anymore.

Michigan will go for the R2 ticket this year. Book it. I have only seen 3 Obama bumper stickers on cars in a month and they were all down in Battle Creek, for some reason. Most of the union cereal jobs have moved out of state or out of the country, or lost to automation in Battle Creek. I guess they have some bitter clingers still holding on for utopia down there.

karenhasfreedom on August 23, 2012 at 2:18 AM

Regarding the Senate seats, in spite of MO, aren’t several seats flipping anyway?

FL looks likely
CT is surprisingly competitive
MA appears to not be a sure loss for Brown
ME will be lost to the Dems but since a huge RINO used to have that seat, no biggie
OH is flipping
VA is flipping
IN is flipping
and I think MT or ND or somewhere up there, a seat is flipping
NE is flipping
MI has a strong GOP candidate taking on the “SpenditNow” Dem incumbent.

While MO is a big pain in the butt right now, I don’t fear losing a chance to take the Senate back. I truly believe the elite media and elite establishment hacks truly do not have their finger on the pulse of regular, every day Americans. They don’t know what is going to hit them in November.

karenhasfreedom on August 23, 2012 at 2:22 AM

Sauce for the goose; sauce for the gander.

0bama made a big deal about how elections have consequences, and “I won.”

Since 0bama established the limitless power of the executive order, then Romney’s second executive order, after voiding 0bamacare in its entirety and declaring the law null and void and the Congressional vote overturned, should be to unseal all of 0bama’s records.

Not only do I want to see him defeated; I want to see his butt kicked all the way back to Indonesia and forced to reapply for citizenship.

Fair’s fair.

cane_loader on August 23, 2012 at 4:32 AM

Since 0bama is allowed to legislate, and give legal status to hundreds of thousands of Mexican invaders, in violation of the law, then Romney can order 0bama deported and have him seized and thrown on a tramp steamer unless he coughs up the birth certificate.

Fair’s fair.

cane_loader on August 23, 2012 at 4:34 AM

I predicted a Romney landslide with over 5% lead in the popular vote months ago. I said it then and I’m still saying it.

MJBrutus on August 23, 2012 at 6:12 AM

After a while you find the site might not be worth hanging around much anymore anyway. As I’m finding this site to be. Lots of work here anyway so not much time to comment here much anymore as well.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

It was nice knowing you and seeing your constant campaigning for Obama. Take care! Hope you don’t slip too far into depression after Obama loses in November.

I don’t see a guy who’s stuck in the mid-40s nationally becoming a Reagan down the stretch and pulling off some fantasy landslide. But whatever fantasy gets you through, I guess.

ddrintn on August 22, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Jilted Sarah Palin worshiper-turned-Obama supporter ddrintn is having a competition with the commenter idesign over who can show the most Palin love. I’m going to have to give idesign the edge, because at least idesign sticks to defending Sarah Palin (always with added smiley faces in the comments), while ddrintn has turned to the dark side and is in full meltdown mode, bashing Mitt whenever he can. You see, ddrintn now supports Obama because, in his mind, if Palin can’t be president, then no Republican can! Crazy? Yes. But then we’re talking about someone who is believed to have tattooed himself with “♥Palin 2012♥” scross his chest. It’s no wonder even the other Palinistas shun ddrintn, who now supports Obama but still scours this site for any discussion of Palin.

Poor ddrintn. Back when Sarah Palin announced she wasn’t going to run for president, ddrintn sank into a downward spiral that eventually led him to his current Obama-supporting position. I have no doubt that Sarah Palin would want nothing to do with so-called superfans like ddrintn who support and campaign for Obama.

bluegill on August 23, 2012 at 7:14 AM

I predicted a Romney landslide with over 5% lead in the popular vote months ago. I said it then and I’m still saying it.

MJBrutus on August 23, 2012 at 6:12 AM

Looking more and more likely. :-) Still a hard fight and a long way yet to go.

I believe Romney is going to get above 50%. There are going to be a lot of angry Obama worshipers on the morning of November 7.

bluegill on August 23, 2012 at 7:18 AM

Hey I am a Palin supporter and am supporting the current GOP ticket. I believe this just wasn’t her year to run. So far Romney has condensed his election issues down to 5 major points. They are the right priorities. Some of us want to get the stimulus money out of the baseline budgeting so we can reduce the debt faster. I would encourage that. Picking Ryan was a terrific choice. Considering the fact I was very “meh” on Romney during the primaries, I am pleased with his overall performance in the past few weeks.

karenhasfreedom on August 23, 2012 at 7:34 AM

That graph is purely racist! It has to be racist, the bull dots don’t like the red dots that is so obvious!! LMAO!

Tbone McGraw on August 23, 2012 at 7:45 AM

Hey I am a Palin supporter and am supporting the current GOP ticket.

karenhasfreedom on August 23, 2012 at 7:34 AM

I’m with you, Karen. I supported Sarah Palin’s candidacy in 2008, and this year I’ve been extremely pleased with our Romney/Ryan ticket.

We’ve got a great team. Mitt and Paul Ryan complement each other and work together extremely well and convey a reassuring sense of competence. Comparing Obama/Biden to Romney/Ryan is like comparing night and day. If this election is going to be about who will make the responsible choices and fix the economy, it’s very obvious that Romney/Ryan should win and win big. Additionally, I love that Sarah Palin is helping out with various other races, as we try to send more conservatives to Congress. Romney/Ryan, Palin and all conservatives, smart indies and even many smart Dems are united in the mission to defeat Obama for the good of the country.

bluegill on August 23, 2012 at 7:45 AM

In the swing states look at those States that have flipped at the State level from D to R and that some of those States are doing well economically. Look at those that still have a D gov/legislature and they aren’t doing so hot economically.

Voters in recently R States will see that there are ways to balance budgets, reduce deficits, and reduce the load of government on the people: as this is an economics election, those trends are ones that can be understood and that turnaround time can be relatively short.

Voters in D States see lots more spending, higher taxes, businesses being pressed to the wall, and a dismal economy: in an economics based election they will ask if they really want this for everyone else.

Those in mixed gov/legislature States will see a lot of politics as usual, spending creeping up, taxes threatened to go up and government doing less with more money. In an economics based election voting the ‘status quo’ becomes an option of a slow death or a fast one, or seeing if there is a way out of this mess.

This is basic, common, household pocketbook math that Obama isn’t good at. That is the basis for economic elections, and right now, outside of the very rich, the apparatchiks, and the elites, things aren’t looking so hot. When the M&M bubble bursts, the SSA bubble bursts, the Big Ag bubble bursts, the Green Energy bubble bursts, the student loan bubble bursts… all of these are tied directly to Government at the federal level. Cronies of both parties getting richer at taxpayer expense with taxpayer dollars, and the taxpayer being put into poverty and subsistence level existence. Indeed our hard earned dollars are being squandered and plundered and the bubbles are directly tied to government policy to do such plundering and create economic problems.

The moment this gets pointed out at a larger scale, that YOU ARE THE MARK in government 3 Card Monte, then this system is extra crispy. None of this wealth transfer can go on forever and it won’t: you either suck it up and admit this, or you live by that lovely river in Egypt and splashing in its waters. Once this becomes the choice on the ballot, and that day is not far away, then the way America has been for a century is done for. You decision is to decide if you want to vote on a way out or a way down… and your vote will say if you are willing to be free or just want to be the Mark forever along with everyone else around you.

The ‘Swing States’ are making this decision and the direction does not seem to be towards the Abyss…there is a way out, it is hard but relatively short if you are willing to cut your losses, stop tossing good money after bad and realize that government ‘help’ isn’t worth the cost to you. Hard decisions, accepting the pain and in mere years seeing a massive turnaround… or more of the misery forever. Thus the election is anti-status quo and the party that has been ready and willing to get rid of the fossils and their elites will have a leg up in pointing out that they ‘get the message’. Strangely enough that isn’t the D party.

ajacksonian on August 23, 2012 at 7:59 AM

Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes

I’m hoping for a landslide. We need a victory so big that it will cause the Dem party to send its ‘progressive’ wing back under its rock for another hundred years.

petefrt on August 23, 2012 at 8:16 AM

My attention span is too short to read the entire article, but I doubt they are factoring the change in demographics every four years, which is happening exponentially. It’s a hot potato of a subject (blacks will vote a certain way for example), but ignore it at your peril.

michaelthomas on August 23, 2012 at 8:47 AM

ITguy on August 22, 2012 at 11:07 PM

331 ± MN!! Now that would be some awesome! Good analysis – hope your assumption on majority of House seats = EV’s is correct.

SnowSun on August 23, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Michigan’s demographic changes and state electoral history of late can’t be dismissed. Much like Cheeseland here too.

JoeinTX on August 23, 2012 at 12:10 AM

I don’t understand why pundits aren’t looking at Michigan as a swing state. Yeah, the “big” cities are liberal, but the remainder of the state is not.

We elected a Republican governor in 2010…

Grace_is_sufficient on August 23, 2012 at 9:14 AM

If the RNC and the Romney campaign can replicate the Bush 2004 win, that’s fine, and it will work, but we have a Senate we want to flip – that’s means taking risks with funds and potentially flipping presumably “safe” Democrats in the Senate. If those risks pay off, then it stands to reason the electoral count can climb as well.

Jurisprudence on August 22, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Should we take a risk by running another Republican against Akin and McCaskill in Missouri?

Or spend money trying to back more “long-shot” candidates such as Hoekstra in Michigan, Mandel in Ohio, or McMahon in Connecticut, who seem to be competitive lately?

The Senate can “flip” with 50 votes if Romney wins the Presidency, since Vice President Ryan can break ties in the Senate…

Steve Z on August 23, 2012 at 9:14 AM

The “more likable” candidate has won every election the past 50 years except one. Obama is “more likable” than Romney. People vote for the person they “like” as a person. That’s why they hit the dog on the roof story so hard. It makes you not like Romney as a person. The “likability factor” is huge. The current “Vegas odds” on the over/under on delegates for the election is Obama wins 300 1/2.

ZippyZ on August 23, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I have been predicting since Romney became the presumptive nominee that he would win in a landslide…..IF it’s a fair election. That is a big IF. Obutthead can see the writing on the wall, and will stop at nothing to “win” reelection.

NOMOBO on August 23, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Imagine if the polls are showing landslide territory. Do you think for one millisecond that any of the pollsters would report it? They are the creators of all the news from now until Nov. 6. Showing Obama losing by 10 points is terrible for business. They have to keep it close and there is no way that they can predict a landslide. They can’t admit that they are doing it, but it follows the same pattern every year.

BetseyRoss on August 23, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Romney WILL win by a landslide. On election night its going to be wonderful to watch the states go red all across this nation, like a giant, red, GOP tidal wave!

thatsafactjack on August 23, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Steve Jobs, Eric Schmidt, and other great entrepreneurs who have thought deeply to understand these complex markets often build great businesses that transform the status quo. Hopefully the same will happen in healthcare.

bayam on August 22, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Do Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and other bayam approved “entrepreneurs” pay you to somehow mention them on a daily basis? Really,you have quite the unhealthy obsession with bringing these guys up.

Oh and suggesting that selecting Paul Ryan as a VP is somehow driving the discussion away from the economy… good lord Ryan is a numbers and budget guy, that is exactly his draw and the reason he was chosen. Your dishonesty knows no bounds.

You’ve been soundly trounced in this thread, I’d suggest you give up and try again tomorrow. I’d say “nice try”, but it really wasn’t.

ShadowsPawn on August 23, 2012 at 10:31 AM

OH is flipping
VA is flipping
IN is flipping
and I think MT or ND or somewhere up there, a seat is flipping
NE is flipping
MI has a strong GOP candidate taking on the “SpenditNow” Dem incumbent.

karenhasfreedom on August 23, 2012 at 2:22 AM

You spelled it wrong. It’s OIHO.

Nutstuyu on August 23, 2012 at 11:26 AM

The “more likable” candidate has won every election the past 50 years except one. Obama is “more likable” than Romney. People vote for the person they “like” as a person. That’s why they hit the dog on the roof story so hard. It makes you not like Romney as a person. The “likability factor” is huge. The current “Vegas odds” on the over/under on delegates for the election is Obama wins 300 1/2.

ZippyZ on August 23, 2012 at 9:24 AM

And why would they like more someone who eats dog?

Nutstuyu on August 23, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I believe Romney is going to get above 50%. There are going to be a lot of angry Obama worshipers on the morning of November 7.

bluegill on August 23, 2012 at 7:18 AM

Didn’ you hear? Lady Moochelle moved the election to November 2nd.

Nutstuyu on August 23, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Two headlines in todays Hot Air that need close watching for the next few days.

CNN:
FBI bulletin: Anarchists may be planning violence at both conventions

The Hill:
How Team Obama is breaking precedent to try to spoil Romney’s convention

If they do both occur, can’t wait to here the Dem’s do the backspin that they are not Anarchists. If anyone gets hurt or killed, which can easily happen in this situation. Except to see the GOP win with 80% vote and the Dem’s out of business for 2-3 decades.

I did studies in 1970′s on turning NY city into an interment camp. It is very easy to do with these cities that are connected by bridges and tunnels.

jpcpt03 on August 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

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