NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney by four nationally, by three in battleground states

posted at 10:01 pm on August 21, 2012 by Allahpundit

Ah, the NBC/WSJ poll, the dreariest blog post of the month for the big A. Thus far this year they’ve measured registered voters, not likelies (although that’ll change soon), which means the data’s been iffy to begin with. Worse, the partisan split in the sample has bounced around enough each month to make you wonder how useful the trendlines are over time. Remember the sample they dropped on us in July? That was a big ol’ D+11, which meant NBC’s sample imagined an electorate considerably more Democratic than the electorate that handed Obama a landslide in 2008. (The exit poll on election night was D+7.) This month’s sample is D+6, which is more realistic and yet still imagines a bluer electorate than we’re likely to see, I think. The point is, when you’re looking for trends by comparing July data to August in the crosstabs, you need to remember that July was based on a strong Democratic tilt and August a more mild one. Case in point: Although O’s lead over Romney technically declined from six points last month to four points now, that’s probably more of a sample artifact than any real movement. In fact, because a lot of the numbers this month are similar to what they were in July, this poll is good news overall for The One insofar as it means his lead is holding up even with a less forgiving sample.

Anyway.

In a smaller sample of voters living in 12 key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent.

That’s a narrower edge in these battlegrounds than the eight-point lead the president enjoyed in the June and July NBC/WSJ polls.

Looking inside the numbers, Obama continues to lead Romney among key parts of his political base, including African Americans (94 percent to 0 percent), Latinos (by a 2-to-1 margin), voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent).

Romney is ahead with whites (53 percent to 40 percent), rural voters (47 percent to 38 percent) and seniors (49 percent to 41 percent).

Obama leads by 35 points when voters are asked which candidate is more likable; Romney’s net favorables are -6, which is lower than any other modern GOP nominee. The news isn’t all bad, though. Here’s a good trend that isn’t explained by the July sample. Obama is the first column, Romney the second:

If Romney does well in the debates, that remaining gap will close as more voters decide he’s presidential material. Meanwhile, Obama’s still lagging on the crucial “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” question:

As for the Ryan pick, how to explain his numbers being noticeably flat compared to other recent VPs?

Only Cheney’s numbers are more or less even; everyone else was greeted warmly by voters. The reason, I assume, is that Ryan’s been an ideological boogeyman to the “professional left” for several years now because of his budget. Palin and Edwards were essentially unknown when they were nominated, and Biden and Lieberman were reasonably well regarded senators who inspired no strong reactions when they were picked. It’s a testament to Ryan’s political influence, even at the age of 42, that his selection would inspire stronger feelings in voters than an old Republican power-broker like Cheney.

The numbers on Medicare “messaging,” meanwhile, are not encouraging:

The big catch to that result is that the pollster insisted on pegging each position to a candidate instead of offering the statements in isolation. Given Obama’s likability advantage, the fact that voters seem to trust him more than Romney may be leading them on this question to embrace his position partly because it’s his. The point is, would these numbers change if a more naturally likable pol like Ryan was tasked with making a sustained Medicare pitch? We’ll find out!


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Night Owl on August 21, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Sorry, I have no idea how this ended up here. I swear I was on the QOTD story.

Night Owl on August 21, 2012 at 11:05 PM

In a way I can see Aken’s point. The American people (both genders) apparently have some natural physiological defense to rape.

The Democrats have been doing it to them for about sixty years and they haven’t produced offspring.

IlikedAUH2O on August 21, 2012 at 11:06 PM

profitsbeard on August 21, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Relax. The media is going to do crap like that with or without Akin.

jawkneemusic on August 21, 2012 at 11:06 PM

BREAKING NEWS!

on Greta now! Palin urges Steelman to go 3rd party. Asks akin to pack bags

renalin on August 21, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Yes, I saw that, too. If she goes 3rd party, I’ll send some money her way.

Sarah was on fire tonight. Love that woman.

Mirimichi on August 21, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Then help me understand… because I continue reading analysis that points to the problem with a voucher system which fails to compensate Medicare recipients at the actual rate of healthcare inflation while repealing the cost containment measures of the ACA. It’s not clear how the middle class benefits from Ryan’s proposed structural change to healthcare spending.

bayam on August 21, 2012 at 10:46 PM

The voucher system ITSELF is a cost containment measure. Private market, competition, all that good stuff.

Works for Medicare Advantage which has cost the govt. 30-40% less than originally projected by the CBO. Which is why the Dems hate it.

MaggiePoo on August 21, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Yes, I saw that, too. If she goes 3rd party, I’ll send some money her way.

Sarah was on fire tonight. Love that woman.

Mirimichi on August 21, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Except that Steelman is prohibited by Missouri’s “sore loser” law from doing so.

wargamer6 on August 21, 2012 at 11:09 PM

BREAKING NEWS!

on Greta now! Palin urges Steelman to go 3rd party. Asks akin to pack bags

renalin on August 21, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Yes, I saw that, too. If she goes 3rd party, I’ll send some money her way.

Mirimichi on August 21, 2012 at 11:10 PM

Sorry about the double posting. My computer (Microsoft and Vista) are pieces of crap.

Mirimichi on August 21, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Name me the last General election candidate with the most charisma to lose? I have been saying for years that charisma is the key to winning a TV election. Call it likability if you wish, cause charisma a complicated subject. But Obama has the edge and its an advantage that isn’t going away.

KMav on August 21, 2012 at 10:25 PM

You’ve convinced me. Obama is just so likable that I am now dis-spirited beyond belief, and just too bereft of hope to bother voting in November.
/

I am confident that there are a lot more voters–who would never reveal this to a pollster–who are repulsed by what a sociopathic punk the President is, than there are swooning admirers still mesmerized by his mythical, nonexistent “charisma.”

Right Mover on August 21, 2012 at 11:17 PM

BREAKING NEWS!

on Greta now! Palin urges Steelman to go 3rd party. Asks akin to pack bags

renalin on August 21, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Yes, I saw that, too. If she goes 3rd party, I’ll send some money her way.

Mirimichi on August 21, 2012 at 11:10 PM

I thought she couldn’t do that.

El Dillo on August 21, 2012 at 11:21 PM

I agree, so let’s not call anyone who supports healtcare reform a socialist.

bayam

Everyone who supports hc reform aren’t socialists. But those who support socialist hc reforms ARE socialists. You know, people like you.

xblade on August 21, 2012 at 11:23 PM

It is still pretty tight and Obama is not getting over 50. I wish it were different, but it could be worse.

Terrye on August 21, 2012 at 11:24 PM

Okay, a few points.

We’re probably looking at an election with a fairly low turnout, except for Republicans. As such, there’s going to be a larger than average disparity between likely and unlikely voters. This in addition to the oversampling would largely explain the disparity between this poll and and pollsters like Gallop, Rasmussen, and the recent state polls we’ve been seeing.

Second, the wording in the medicare portion of this poll, is EXTREMELY LEADING! In fact I’d say it go straight into push poll territory. Notice how when describing Romneys plan, they only use uncertain terms when describing the potential benefits, and omit details like restoring funding removed by Obamacare. On the other hand when they describe Obama’s, they use much stronger language, take additional time to characterize the Ryan plan, and essentially repeat the Obama’s mediscare language verbatim. In other words, they are promoting a certain response in the way they’re asking their questions.

This not only renders the medicare results useless, but depending on when the question was asked likely damages Romney’s results elsewhere. This isn’t a problem if this question was asked last, but if it was asked in the middle of the interview or at the start it would taint the results on numerous questions.

So, speaking purely analytically, I don’t think we can actually take anything from this poll. It’s, well, junk, it fits the very dictionary definition of a push poll and therefore should not be treated the same as a scientific poll.

WolvenOne on August 21, 2012 at 11:33 PM

Name me the last General election candidate with the most charisma to lose? I have been saying for years that charisma is the key to winning a TV election.

Hard to maintain your charisma when you leave boogers all over the desk in the Oval Office.

MaggiePoo on August 21, 2012 at 11:48 PM

they are promoting a certain response in the way they’re asking their questions.

Not only that, they’re spreading propaganda to the respondents.

MaggiePoo on August 21, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Anyone who relies on polls right now is an idiot.

Take MO for instance…

3 days ago we were winning that state…hmmmnnn

ccrosby on August 22, 2012 at 12:01 AM

Its Tuesday, time for another bullshit Eeyore-frightening poll from the communists at NBC.

Give me a break.

TexasJew on August 22, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Anyone who relies on polls right now is an idiot.

Take MO for instance…

3 days ago we were winning that state…hmmmnnn

ccrosby on August 22, 2012 at 12:01 AM

True, polls this early tend to only be useful for giving you a, “VERY LOOSE,” idea of the starting point. It’s nice if you’re starting ahead, but the landscape has a tendency to change a lot in the last few months, sometimes even the last few weeks.

WolvenOne on August 22, 2012 at 12:09 AM

Ah yes, just like clockwork. Allah completely ignores the favorable polls for Romney but always touts the Obama polls. The day Allah posts anything favorable for Romney I will pass out from disbelief.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 22, 2012 at 12:10 AM

I’ve been waiting for another blowout since the Reagan days. I can’t wait for November as Øbama is going to be crushed. Polls be damned. The democrats will stay home and the Republicans will come out in droves. I think the only open question is if we get the Senate or not. I hope so.

Mojave Mark on August 22, 2012 at 12:11 AM

Hey, that’s how Lieberman won when the Dems shut him out in the primary….it could work with a 3rd party against Claire McCaskill (who has been described as further left than Obama, if that’s possible).
Or what about a write in campaign? It worked for Lisa Murkowski, the liberal republican from Alaska.

Something doesn’t make sense. R/R team have the energy & are drawing in some crowds. They’ve faced the Mediscare head on. But their poll number remain weak.

Belle on August 22, 2012 at 12:18 AM

I went to a funeral today…very sad..At the funeral luncheon politics came up… we are in trouble. I am amazed, nervous, and quite concerned over the Obama love out there.

shar61 on August 22, 2012 at 12:44 AM

And the good news Polls for the Day.


Gravis Marketing Poll: Florida

Romney +3

Sample +4 Dem

Interesting things about this poll. Romney’s lead grows to 4% if asked whether you would vote for Romney/Ryan – Obama/Biden.

Romney maintains a lead even when Gary Johnson is included, and when Biden is swapped out for Hillary Clinton

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103453232/Florida

FMW/Baydoun Poll: Michigan

Romney +4%

Interesting things about this poll. The pollster did not ask party identification, instead they simply dialed a database of voters have participated in primaries, and previous city/county/state elections. This may end up oversampling Republicans slightly, as democrats tend to rely on less active voters bolstering their numbers during major elections.

That said, RCP lists this pollster as a democratic party affiliated pollster, and they use a very large sample. The sample may be a little off, but I can see no reason why they would use a methodology that would give Republicans a terribly large advantage.

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/link/581519/presidential-and-senate-poll-for-the-general-election
—–

PPP: Wisconsin

Romney +1

Sample +2 GOP

As others have mentioned, this probably oversamples Republicans ever so slightly. However, this may be offset slightly by the fact that this was a weekend poll. Weekend polls typically benefit democrats since older voters who have families and attend church are typically less available on weekends. Most people assume this primarily affects the skew, but it can also affect what sort of independents are sampled.

Odd fact, PPP is the only pollster to show a consistent Obama advantage among independents. Other pollsters either show the two trading places among independents or more frequently show Romney leading among independents. This may be due to wording, PPP’s database, or their habit of polling more frequently on weekends than most pollsters.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_082112.pdf
—-

Monmouth University Poll : National

Obama +1

Sample +5 Dem

This poll shows Romney winning independents nationally, by a fairly solid margin. It’s sample isn’t as bad as many pollsters, but its probably at least inflated by a point and a half in favor of democrats, conservatively speaking. At a more traditional 3.5% advantage for democrats, Romney would be ahead about 2-3%, roughly the same as Gallop.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/9e0f1831-9dbd-4fa3-b0e3-59588c95ec61.pdf
——

Overall, the large bulk of polls I’ve seen today are good news. The ones that are not, either make hugely unrealistic assumptions about turnout, or are structured like push polls.

WolvenOne on August 22, 2012 at 12:58 AM

I simply do not believe these polls. They are all sample biased or have a question that results in a skew. Obama has p!ssed off too many people to have a chance. Serious landslide to come.

Brian Mallard on August 22, 2012 at 12:58 AM

This election is tied or leaning Romney right now.

Obama has the media working for him.

Romney looks good because more than 50% of voters don’t want to vote for BO.

And he has Ryan.

forest on August 22, 2012 at 1:10 AM

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Romney’s not going to win the election with 0 percent of the African American vote.

El Txangurro on August 22, 2012 at 1:33 AM

Allahpundit:

(The exit poll on election night was D+7.) This month’s sample is D+6, which is more realistic and yet still imagines a bluer electorate than we’re likely to see, I think.

 
You’re saying that a sampling that is -1 from 2008 is more realistic than a sampling that was +5 versus 2008. Well, Ok, but its kinda like saying the world of a person stoned is more realistic than the world of a person on LSD. Neither is realistic today.
 
Do you not consider 2010 because it was not a presidential race? By doing so you remove any Tea Party factor. Maybe your Eeyor-ism comes from this less than realistic baseline. Maybe?
 

ignatzk on August 22, 2012 at 1:34 AM

I agree, so let’s not call anyone who supports healtcare reform a socialist. Or assume that you’re a ‘real’ capitalist, while Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Eric Schmidt and other great entrepreneurs who support Obama are communists.

Actually, you and your Obama Party have been screaming that they’re thieves and liars who stole everything and “didn’t build that”, so your attempt to invoke them is nothing more than blatant hypocrisy.

Not that that surprises us. Obama supporters like you are filth and scum who exist on stealing from others. You are screaming and bawling so loudly because you know that once Obama is kicked out of office, your gravy train stops and you have to work for a living.

Let’s grow up and escape the mindset that people at the bottom of society are the source of this country’s problems. If the lower class vanished tomorrow, nothing would really change- China would continue to destroy manufacturing jobs, an aging population would push entitlement spending higher, and other structural problems in the US economy would prevent higher job growth.

bayam on August 21, 2012 at 10:34 PM

If they’re not the source of this country’s problems, then why are programs to “fix” them what you and your fellow pigs use to justify hiking taxes on everyone else?

You’re the one who screams and bawls about “the poor”, bayam. You’re obsessed with them — primarily as an excuse for you to steal and mooch from others, because you and your fellow rich Obama Party pigs certainly won’t pay your own taxes or spend your own money.

northdallasthirty on August 22, 2012 at 1:44 AM

These polls are basically useless, since the only polls that count are the internals, where they are paid millions to create them.

This is how you can tell what the polls say…watch the candidates.

The attack on medicare by Romney/Ryan policies are working, because they are still hard at it.

The personal attacks are working the best for Obama, because he is hard at it.

Here is the question…which one of the strategy has legs?

right2bright on August 22, 2012 at 1:52 AM

Why do pollsters keep including New Mexico in swing state polls? Is there any evidence that it’s in play this year?

midgeorgian on August 21, 2012 at 10:08 PM

I’m a little late to the party, and I’m not sure how much proof this is, but the RNC set up permanent campaign headquarters in Albuquerque for the first time in recent history. Many volunteers I speak to think there is a chance NM could go red again. We have a Republican governor and a Republican mayor in Albuquerque, which is the largest city in NM.

Heather Wilson has won in a somewhat hostile district before, I think there’s a chance she could win again and pick up a senate seat.

Just my two cents.

conservative_student on August 22, 2012 at 1:52 AM

northdallasthirty on August 22, 2012 at 1:44 AM

Actually bayam is right, nothing would change if the all the poor were removed, because the people who caused this problem, the people who are enabling them to stay poor, the ones who have allowed our manufacturing to fall apart, would still be in power.

…If the lower class vanished tomorrow, nothing would really change- China would continue to destroy manufacturing jobs, an aging population would push entitlement spending higher, and other structural problems in the US economy would prevent higher job growth…
bayam on August 21, 2012 at 10:34 PM

The dems who have created the “great society”, who run every major school district in America, the ones who have fought the growth of small business, would still be doing the same.

It’s not the people now, it’s the policies…it’s not business, it’s government restrictions on the business…

right2bright on August 22, 2012 at 1:59 AM

SIGH.

In order for a comparison to those past VP polls to mean anything statistically, you would need to compare also the samples and their partisan breakdowns.

Nobody I’ve talked to expects D+6. That would be the second highest since they started measuring it, to 2008′s D+7. Since the Republican enthusiasm gap is better than 2-1 over Democrats this time, and the mystique of Obama is gone with the jobs, and his biggest support comes from minorities, youth, and single women, all of which groups are known for lower participation rates, it’s a pretty fair guess that a D+6 sample is just bull shi’ite.

And if the sample is garbage, what follows from that? Bueller? Bueller?

Adjoran on August 22, 2012 at 2:00 AM

In a way I can see Aken’s point. The American people (both genders) apparently have some natural physiological defense to rape.

The Democrats have been doing it to them for about sixty years and they haven’t produced offspring.IlikedAUH2O on August 21, 2012 at 11:06 PM

That’s because they’re not doing that “for the children.” It’s the right thing to do to save the environment cause,”it’s for the children” cause if the environment was to crumble, think what that would do “for the children”..oh…and women too.

Don L on August 22, 2012 at 2:31 AM

This month’s sample is D+6

Inside the cross-tabs, when the asked the question who did you vote for in 2008, it was Obama +9. It’s a bogus poll of course, but it actually shows him losing support from 2008.

TarheelBen on August 22, 2012 at 5:02 AM

AP you are a trip.

First you tell us the poll is bogus because they oversample Democrats by 6 points (which is actually far more if you take into account Republicans have a 20 point enthusiasm gap over Democrats this cycle), then you.tell us Romney should be worried because Obama is doing so well in this bogus poll.

I mean dude. If the poll is bogus why do you use it as your premise for negativity?

mitchellvii on August 22, 2012 at 5:06 AM

Talk about Lucy and the football…here we go again…BIASED SAMPLE! Jay Cost and anybody else with a brain is saying these polls are BS! But it never slows AP and tepid air down…PANIC!!!

Ignore all the evidence that R/R are killing out there…LOOK a POLL!

Does it not bother you that you are doing obama’s bidding by giving these polls credence?

FOOL…

winston on August 22, 2012 at 5:42 AM

I can’t fathom how Obama, after all the scandals, the terrible economy, etc., can possibly be anywhere near in the lead.

bobcalco on August 22, 2012 at 6:57 AM

The Economic Destroyer smiles as he takes your job………and you ask for more.

You can’t wait for the Obama Death Panels and you love executive orders, and you want to know more about his great family.

America wishes Michelle would just go ahead and ban those nasty fast foods and build “Michelle Cafes” in all those food deserts.

The results of this poll in a nutshell.

Beautiful.

PappyD61 on August 22, 2012 at 7:13 AM

Will one of you big brains here (AP??) explain to me how Obama can be ahead by 30 points in CA and NY and still be this close nationally. I know there’s OK etc. but it takes alot of OKs to make a CA. I’m beginning to think Mitt may be well ahead but polling is pulling for Obama like a parent a little league game. Rasmussen’s poll reads like harmonic scale. Is anybody sure that he’s even polling or is just making the stuff up. I look at polls and I wonder what kind of nut would set still for that many questions?? I an antique dealer and I know that when somebody is selling something there is certain amount of made up BS. I assume that these pollsters are being paid.

rik on August 22, 2012 at 8:24 AM

I have determined after careful consideration that one of two things is happening. Either AllahPundit is an idiot and cannot see that quoting clearly biased polling as a basis for concern is nonsensical, or he is being paid by the DNC to tamp down Republican enthusiasm.

I have never in my life seen a more downer, negative, believe the worst person other than in an SNL skit. AP has become the Debbie Downer of Hotair.

mitchellvii on August 22, 2012 at 8:30 AM

The electoral college (red state electoral votes based on the census) is in Romney’s favor by the equivilent of 2 or 3 points. These national polls have no way of accounting for that.

michaelthomas on August 22, 2012 at 8:33 AM

In addition the cute little trick of including in the swing states Lean Obama states like NM, PA, and NV Is BS!! I might be wrong but it would surprise me if Obama won PA by more than Mccain won TX by. So why not call TX a swing state. Polling has as much consensus as global warming. Why?? Because it is all based on a bunch of made up BS!!

rik on August 22, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Wouldn’t not would

FIFM

rik on August 22, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Obama leads Romney by four nationally, by three in battleground states

To paraphrase Yoda:
And that, America, is why you fail.

Badger40 on August 22, 2012 at 8:48 AM

It’s not really D +6. If you look at how the people polled voted in 2008 it’s more like D +11 again.

Anyway, you have a poll in the D+6-11 range showing a virtual tie after little Bammy has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Romney and Romney hasn’t even really started campaigning yet. No matter how you look at it, Obama’s poll numbers keep going in the wrong direction.

eyedoc on August 22, 2012 at 8:50 AM

So Romney is getting 0% of the black vote? Yeah, I’ll take this poll very seriously.

eyedoc on August 22, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Here’s their new trick after they realized we were on to the registered/likely trick. I experienced it in FL. They ask Likely voters WHO THEY VOTED FOR IN 08, and then oversample OBAMA VOTERS. They can make the numbers say whatever they want. We’re winning! Disregard the MSM!

bob77 on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

If it is associated with NBC, it is a lie. Period.

volsense on August 22, 2012 at 9:15 AM

In a smaller sample of voters living in 12 key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Since Romney is unlikely to win PA, MI, NM, and NV, which contribute 39 Congressional districts (about proportional to population) to the 12 swing states out of total of 125, removing the Dem tilt of those four states means that Romney is running about even in the other swing states. Romney needs FL, OH, VA, NC, and one other state out of WI, CO, IA, and NH to win the Presidency.

Besides, if the swing-state sample is “smaller” than the overall sample, how many voters were actually sampled in the swing states–300 or 400? In 12 states, that averages about 30 voters per state, or maybe only 10 voters in a less populous state like NH, NV, IA, or CO, and margins of error become HUGE (>10%) when sample sizes go below 100.

Steve Z on August 22, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Here’s their new trick after they realized we were on to the registered/likely trick. I experienced it in FL. They ask Likely voters WHO THEY VOTED FOR IN 08, and then oversample OBAMA VOTERS. They can make the numbers say whatever they want. We’re winning! Disregard the MSM!

bob77 on August 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Excellent point!!! We saw this with the NYT/CBS/Q-polls of FL, OH, and PA a few weeks ago, where they published the Obama/McCain 2008 splits of their sample, which were much more pro-Obama than the actual election results.

Even among these skewed samples, Romney was doing much better than McCain did in 2008, and if the shift from Obama to Romney was applied to the 2008 electorate, Romney would win FL and OH by 4%.

This is the key to figuring out what’s REALLY happening in the polls. If the pollster reveals the number of people in their sample who voted for Obama and McCain in 2008, and how many of them switched their votes (Obama to Romney or McCain to Obama), then apply the percentages of vote-switchers to the actual voting percentages from 2008. If the pollster does not reveal the percentages who voted for Obama or McCain in 2008, the poll is worthless.

Steve Z on August 22, 2012 at 9:36 AM

…Fluke the polls!…people can’t be that dumb!

KOOLAID2 on August 22, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Given Obama’s likability advantage,

I don’t get this — he’s as real as a three dollar bill, and about as likable as that smarmy kid in school who was all buddy-buddy when he needed to cheat off your test sheet or bum some lunch money off you, and was always off to the next kid who to cozy up.

EasyEight on August 22, 2012 at 10:22 AM

In looking at the black vote, Obama had a 94-0 advantage. I guess their polling was done in the major urban areas (Philadelphia, Detroit, Madison, etc.), which tend to go to Democrats.

djaymick on August 22, 2012 at 11:21 AM

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