Cook Political Report moves Missouri from “toss up” to “likely Democrat”; Update: Romney, Scott Walker call on Akin to quit

posted at 4:42 pm on August 21, 2012 by Allahpundit

Maybe ObamaCare won’t be so bad, guys. A couple of tweaks to IPAB, a little fine-tuning of those state insurance exchanges, and who knows? We might be able to duct-tape this boondoggle together and keep it aloft for a decade or two. If anyone can make it work, it’s President Romney, right?

Jennifer Duffy of Cook waves bye-bye to the prospective 51st vote for repeal:

Ed and ConArtCritic, who analyzes polls for Ace’s site, argue persuasively that the PPP poll this morning showing Akin up by a point is essentially garbage, as it’s based on a ridiculously lopsided Republican sample. (PPP is Kos’s pollster; go figure that they’d churn out some encouragement for Akin to stay in the race at a decisive moment.) A more realistic turnout model in Missouri would have McCaskill up comfortably by six or seven points, and that’s before the Democratic ad machine, now fully loaded with disapproving quotes from Akin’s fellow Republicans, goes to work on him.

But it’s apparently useless trying to point this out to the candidate: Paul Ryan called Akin personally yesterday to vent his disapproval and, just as I’m writing this, with less than two hours before the withdrawal deadline expires, Romney has issued a statement flatly calling on Akin to quit the race. Problem is, there’s really nothing the party can offer him to make it worth his while to go. Read this short but smart piece at Salon listing the many reasons Akin has to keep going. He’s old; he’s still got a more or less 50/50 shot at the Senate; he may or may not think his primary victory was divinely ordained, etc etc etc. If he were a younger pol, the GOP leadership might be able to tempt him with the promise of some plum position down the road if he plays ball now. As it is, the one and only argument his critics have is to ask him to put conservatism first and step aside to maximize our chances of repealing ObamaCare. You can see from his Huckabee interview this afternoon how seriously he takes that argument. Charlie Crist’s still the most nakedly careerist politician I’ve ever seen, but you’ve got to hand it to Akin: Even Crist never put his own ambitions above his party’s top agenda items.

He can still quit after today’s deadline passes, but to do so he’ll need a court order. Can he get one? As Nate Silver notes, four of the six justices of the Missouri Supreme Court are Democratic appointees, and Akin has no stronger supporters in America right now when it comes to staying on the ballot than Democrats. Meanwhile, if Priebus and Cornyn are serious about withholding money from this guy in the assurance that conservatives will blame Akin for the eventual loss, not them, I think they’re kidding themselves. Once it’s clear that he’s in the race to the bitter end, the calculus among many of his critics will shift from “he’s a moron” to “he’s a moron but he’s our moron,” such that if the RNC and NRSC cut him off, the dreaded Beltway RINO establishment will be blamed for not having done everything they could to make the best of a bad hand. (That would be less likely if McCaskill utterly crushed him on election day, but she’s sufficiently weak that she probably won’t win by more than four or five points. He’ll be competitive, sort of, down the stretch.) Never mind that the money they save might prove critically useful elsewhere; once Akin proves he’s a “fighter,” willing to tell both Democrats and Republicans to go to hell, that’ll earn him a certain base of populist support that will demand financial support from GOP treasurers on his behalf. And if they don’t provide it, they’ll be scapegoated, not him.

We’re 80 minutes from the deadline as I write this. While we wait to see if today’s pledge not to quit holds, here’s Rush Limbaugh via the Daily Rushbo.

Update: Here’s the full Romney statement I mentioned earlier. Another very heavy hitter, Scott Walker, is also pushing with both hands:

Governor Scott Walker released the following statement today calling on U.S. Representative Todd Akin (R-MO) to remove himself from his U.S. Senate bid to unseat Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO).

“Representative Todd Akin’s comments were ignorant at best and completely outrageous. For the good of his state and for the good of his party, he should step aside immediately and allow someone else to run.”

Holding McCaskill’s seat is job one for Democrats, but obviously they want more out of Akingate. A lot more.


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Sad to say, but, it true! Akin will not win Missouri!

jjnco73 on August 21, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I’m not sad to say that he’ll lose. Delusional morons like him have no place in the United States Senate, no matter what letter they have after their name.

KingGold on August 21, 2012 at 6:12 PM

That would only split the GOP vote and allow Claire to sail back into office.

Akins will have supporters that think his “Forgiveness” ad was enough to put this matter behind him.

Wethal on August 21, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Akin put his own political ambitions ahead of his country, his party, his state, and millions of Americans.

He is a selfish, arrogant pig. He believes that he is more important than getting rid of Obama, the Democrats, Obamacare, etc.

He and his wife deserve to spend the rest of their lives being ostracised for their selfishness and pride.

Resist We Much on August 21, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Akins will have supporters that think his “Forgiveness” ad was enough to put this matter behind him.

Wethal on August 21, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Then it will be the job of the party to destroy him. I’m fairly certain they can do it.

JohnGalt23 on August 21, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Huckabee needs to join him in the Land of Misfit Republicans (MSNBC) where they will never be heard from again!

Punchenko on August 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Weird that his Missouri office’s phone isn’t working (goes to some odd automated service that asks you to put in a phone number as if you’re accessing a voter vault service or something), nor does the e-mail form on his website work either. It bounces back your e-mail and says that the website is not taking e-mails.

David Rasbold on August 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Missouri open primary “betrayed” the GOP not Rush. Dems voted for Akin as crossovers, GOP vote split between Brunner and Steelman. Akin was Obama’s chosen candidate. He’s been told the facts and still stays. Man needs haldol.

clnurnberg on August 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Nov 7 it will hit him like a ton of bricks. All his political capital is worth nothing now. In politics, your peers and constituents love having you around until you screw up. He screwed up and had a chance to make good, but he and his stubborn wife decided to ride this out. November 7th he will read a concession speech to a room full of the only people in the country who don’t want to spit in his face. And he better look around closely as those will be the only friends he’ll ever have. The rest of the country will despise him.

Bensonofben on August 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The fact that he’d risk a GOP loss of the Senate rather than step down tells us all we need to know about who this guy really is.

What about Ashcroft or another ex-Senator stepping into the breach? Is it too late to get someone on the ballot as an independent?

writeblock on August 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

I hope all of the snarling ones are taking notes on this fiasco. They are working for the enemy and either don’t know or don’t care.

platypus on August 21, 2012 at 6:14 PM

That would only split the GOP vote and allow Claire to sail back into office.

Wethal on August 21, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Possibly, but it would certainly have the beneficial effect of sending the no-exceptions wing of the pro-life movement into the political wilderness for decades, probably forever.

cool breeze on August 21, 2012 at 6:14 PM

His FB page is full of libs begging him to stay. Some are honest about it, other have lots of dems in their like pages. Akin can’t read either.

clnurnberg on August 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

One day you will all get what you are clamoring for—leaders without honor.

LL1960 on August 21, 2012 at 6:07 PM

It appears to me that the voters of Missouri are certain to get a Senator without honour regardless of who wins the race.

Make no mistake, Todd Akin didn’t stay in because of “his principles.” He stayed in for one reason: Todd Akin.

Resist We Much on August 21, 2012 at 6:15 PM

No deal. It was ruled by SCOTUS to be a tax so it only needs 51 votes to pass. I’ve been laughing my azz off about how political Roberts is and how nobody sees it. He voted specifically to agitate the base to get out and retake the government. If a donkey/lib did this, we’d be screaming for his/her head. The donkeys can’t gripe because they “won.”

Pure genius.

platypus on August 21, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Yep that John Roberts is a genius. He could have just stayed with his original vote and the whole law would have been unconstitutional, but that’s not smart, that’s stupid. We need genius and boy did we get it. A real stroke of genius came over him and he decided instead of ruling the whole thing unconstittutional he would make it a little easier for a future congress to repeal it. Yep that’s what I call genius right there.

bgibbs1000 on August 21, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Did everybody forget what got the tea party started? ObamaTax and GOP party elites.

platypus on August 21, 2012 at 6:09 PM

I wouldn’t leave TARP out of that equation, it had more to do with my participation than Obama did. You think that the GOP betrayed Mr. Akin? Wait while we watch what they do with with what he said, inadvertent I will admit, but the ads write themselves.

Cindy Munford on August 21, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Roberts voted “present”.

clnurnberg on August 21, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Akin’s wife is evil.

beatcanvas on August 21, 2012 at 6:17 PM

I hope all of the snarling ones are taking notes on this fiasco. They are working for the enemy and either don’t know or don’t care.

platypus on August 21, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Yes, if people aren’t careful, their pointing out that Akin did immeasureable damage to this race is going to do immeasureable damage to this race.

stldave on August 21, 2012 at 6:17 PM

And how likely is it that Akin won’t keep stepping in it? Doesn’t seem smart enough to shut his mouth….looks like a vampire, BTW.

clnurnberg on August 21, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I agree. Robert’s master plan is about to go up in flames. He left us no margin for error. Roberts is probably face planting right now thinking, “gee, didn’t see this coming”

Bensonofben on August 21, 2012 at 6:19 PM

stldave on August 21, 2012 at 6:12 PM

From what I have seen, there are very few people willing to take such a strong pro-life principled stand as this man has apparently done in the past. Most people avoid talking about it. I am pretty appalled by this whole situation and people’s ridiculous outrage. Are people really that stupid that a man’s many years of service are struck down by one mistake–for which he apologized? If I lived in Missouri, I would vote for him.

LL1960 on August 21, 2012 at 6:24 PM

No deal. It was ruled by SCOTUS to be a tax so it only needs 51 votes to pass. I’ve been laughing my azz off about how political Roberts is and how nobody sees it. He voted specifically to agitate the base to get out and retake the government. If a donkey/lib did this, we’d be screaming for his/her head. The donkeys can’t gripe because they “won.”

Pure genius.

platypus on August 21, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Genius? Are you as insane as Akin?

There are FOUR permitted taxes under the Constitution:

Capitation: A direct tax on a person or property, but must be apportioned amongst the states under the US Constitution.

Excise: A tax triggered by a “taxable event” like a death or sale.

Income: A tax on income.

Impost: A duty or tariff on imports and exports imposed by the government.

The Obamacare mandate tax is NONE of the above. Roberts created a special new kind of new tax and he re-wrote the legislation to do it.

Now, he has given our overlords in DC the blueprint on how to “legally” impose mandates on Americans of all kinds in the future.

There was NOTHING “genius” about Roberts’ decision.

PS: The Supreme Court’s purpose IS to protect the people from the overreach of government, including when said people elect the idiots to office. If the Congress and Obama passed a law requiring each of us to work for the government for free 4 hours per day, it would behoove the SCOTUS to overturn such a law as violative of the 13th Amendment. We should not be scolded by the CJ and told that our only recourse against such tyranny is at the ballot box.

Resist We Much on August 21, 2012 at 6:24 PM

This is why states should have closed primaries and and should have runoff elections.

topdawg on August 21, 2012 at 6:27 PM

I’m lost as to why people are so adamant about a Republican controlled Senate…We’ve already gone that route along with a Republican majority in Congress, a conservative Supreme Court and a Republican administration….Remember? 6 years of watching the Republicans spend us into bankruptcy….

…and it would appear (at least at HA) that the future of America and its citizens rests solely on the shoulders of a Missouri Congressman….give me a break.

What the Democrats did to this country when they gained power in 08 is no different than what the Republicans did when it was their turn in 2000 and no different than what they’re going to do to us in 2013. We’ll see who’s right on this one…but I have history on my side and you know what they say about history….?

repvoter on August 21, 2012 at 6:27 PM

No deal. It was ruled by SCOTUS to be a tax so it only needs 51 votes to pass. I’ve been laughing my azz off about how political Roberts is and how nobody sees it. He voted specifically to agitate the base to get out and retake the government. If a donkey/lib did this, we’d be screaming for his/her head. The donkeys can’t gripe because they “won.”

Pure genius.

platypus on August 21, 2012 at 6:02 PM

If repeal should come up for Reconciliation as a “tax” then 51 votes would indeed suffice–but the RINO votes will still have to be “bought.” Murkowski & Co. will hold out for many pounds of porkie flesh. Mitt will have to be in the WH of course. A 50-50 split is certainly not unforseeable, with the VP casting a tie-breaker vote. RINOs have a way of folding under extreme pressure.

Even more “genius” would have been for Roberts to strike down the law as unconstitutional, which of course it is. Future liberal congresses will never cease reintroducing it.

spiritof61 on August 21, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Yep that John Roberts is a genius. He could have just stayed with his original vote and the whole law would have been unconstitutional, but that’s not smart, that’s stupid. We need genius and boy did we get it. A real stroke of genius came over him and he decided instead of ruling the whole thing unconstittutional he would make it a little easier for a future congress to repeal it. Yep that’s what I call genius right there.

bgibbs1000 on August 21, 2012 at 6:16 PM

And Roberts genius didn’t stop with just using the tax code to make the thing constitutional. He went even further with his genius. He used his new found genius to create within the tax code the ability to use the tax code to force the citizenry to behave as their leaders see fit. Super genius right there.

bgibbs1000 on August 21, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Well, if the National new shows are any indication, Rape and Abortion have replaced the Economy and Obamacare as what this election will be decided on now.

Rockshine on August 21, 2012 at 6:31 PM

From what I have seen, there are very few people willing to take such a strong pro-life principled stand as this man has apparently done in the past. Most people avoid talking about it. I am pretty appalled by this whole situation and people’s ridiculous outrage. Are people really that stupid that a man’s many years of service are struck down by one mistake–for which he apologized? If I lived in Missouri, I would vote for him.

LL1960 on August 21, 2012 at 6:24 PM

One mistake? Last Friday, he thought that it was a good idea to suggest that we “revisit” civil rights and voting legislation. This during an election year when the first black POTUS is standing for reelection.

I’m really tired of everyone making this about abortion. As a victim of rape — I wasn’t going to write about personal matters — I am sick and tired of people here glossing over the whole “legitimate rape” part of his comment. Add that to his belief in the Magic Vajayjay Shield and the man is just not smart enough to be in the Senate.

More than anything is that he has shown that he is more interested in his own political career than in anything else.

Is there a double standard? Yes.

Is it unfair? Yes.

Is life unfair? Yes.

Does it matter THIS year? No.

Akin put himself ahead of his country and that makes him despicable.

Resist We Much on August 21, 2012 at 6:33 PM

I don’t hold out any hope that he will seek a court order but Dr. K disagrees with Nate Silver and says it would be automatically granted.

Cindy Munford on August 21, 2012 at 6:48 PM

So no one has confidence in Linda Lingle (HI) or Linda McMahon (CT)? Sheesh.

SouthernGent on August 21, 2012 at 7:22 PM

SouthernGent on August 21, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Didn’t a Republican House member from HI endorse the Democrat? We are living in weird times. I was surprised that Ms. McMahon beat Christopher Shay but obviously the folks in CT know him better than I do.

Cindy Munford on August 21, 2012 at 7:50 PM

If the Congress and Obama passed a law requiring each of us to work for the government for free 4 hours per day, it would behoove the SCOTUS to overturn such a law as violative of the 13th Amendment. We should not be scolded by the CJ and told that our only recourse against such tyranny is at the ballot box.

Resist We Much on August 21, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Ah, but, you see, we already do work four hours per day for Goberment, state, local and national because the commie corruptocrats from both parties have hidden taxes in everything we purchase, view, drink, eat, earn and inherit and if they have their way the air we breath!
This far right social conservative may have just hung around our necks the cross we and our Republic will be crucified upon!
Took a marginal fringe position and because of the Party Plank hung it around all Repunks necks. Wonder who paid him to destroy America?

ConcealedKerry on August 21, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Didn’t a Republican House member from HI endorse the Democrat? We are living in weird times. I was surprised that Ms. McMahon beat Christopher Shay but obviously the folks in CT know him better than I do.

Cindy Munford on August 21, 2012 at 7:50 PM

No, it was a Republican House member from Alaska. The corrupt Don Young, King of the Pork. But

Shays is a tool. He didn’t even care to campaign properly. He just entered to race to whine about McMahon’s money. She’ll do better than people expected, she learned her lessons from 2 years ago. She won’t win unless the Democrat loses, but she’ll be ready to seize any opportunity.

joana on August 21, 2012 at 8:35 PM

joana on August 21, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Oh, that’s right, thanks. Ms. McMahon seems like a sharp lady.

Cindy Munford on August 21, 2012 at 8:46 PM

I’m still confused by all the calls for him to step aside. Outside the inaccurate part of the whole rape causing a woman’s body to stop fertilization, it was pretty tame stuff and everyone is distancing himself because of politics. If making one mistake is enough for people to turn on you, then to hell with them. Good for Akin. He won the primary, he thinks he can win, he thinks he will do good for his state. The notion that in today’s era you make one mistake and you’re tossed under the bus is outrageous. Heaven forbid our candidates not be perfect little robots.

TheBlueSite on August 21, 2012 at 8:59 PM

AP, the picture on this thread is great. It is the epitome of the Career politician that has been feeding from the public trough far too long and believes that it is his RIGHT to continue to feed.

Arrogance looks the same whether it has a ‘D’ or ‘R’ after its name.

This guy is toast and his tenure at the trough is going to come to an end just like that dirtbag from Nebraska.

belad on August 21, 2012 at 11:12 PM

I will remind all my dear friends on this board that there is actually one more alternative to consider: A WRITE-IN CANDIDATE.

Given how angry Tea Party activists and Republicans are at Akin’s inane stance, resources can be used to support one of the 2 opponents Akin had: Preferably, Steeleman, as Palin supported her and that is a big spotlight.

I will also remind everyone that such an approach work worked in the Alaska Senate race in 2010. Though, this time, the write-in candidate will have grassroots support on a vast level.

Akin’s idiocy has caused me now to support McCaskill. I urge the Missouri GOP to think outside the box if Akin remains.

Mutnodjmet on August 21, 2012 at 11:33 PM

Does Michigans economy somehow suck less than the rest of the country?

Their unemployment rate’s almost been cut in half in the last 3 years (from ~14% to ~8.5%), so arguably, yes.

El Txangurro on August 22, 2012 at 1:00 AM

Mutnodjmet on August 21, 2012 at 11:33 PM

Can’t just “write in” someone in Missouri. State law says you have to register to be a write-in candidate, and that deadline has passed. If you vote for anyone not on the printed ballot the votes simply do not count.

alwaysfiredup on August 22, 2012 at 1:28 AM

Heard this guy on insHanitty, he sounds certifiable, someone should demand a doc check I am not sure he lives in realsville.

ConcealedKerry on August 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

he’s from the same ‘ville’ as Biden (mentalville that is), the sad part being that Biden is our VP…makes one question obama sanity too…this akin dude will lose, no doubt and we will never see his face again (not before he does a lot of damage to the cause unfortunately), but Biden will still be around for a looog time, hopefully not as VP…

jimver on August 22, 2012 at 1:45 AM

Too bad this guy ruined his brand and wants to drag all republicans down with him.

Outside Missouri where Y’all knew him, the first we hear in the media of this guy, who went on the MSM without taking a security guard with him,

is that he is the picture of a knuckle dragging pro life man who wants to tell women what to do and his head is full of ignorant ideas and SUPERSTITION.

And he sets the pro life cause back scientifically about 40 years, thanks you bastard.

Fleuries on August 22, 2012 at 8:13 AM

Possibly, but it would certainly have the beneficial effect of sending the no-exceptions wing of the pro-life movement into the political wilderness for decades, probably forever.

cool breeze on August 21, 2012 at 6:14 PM

That would certainly be a benefit.

MelonCollie on August 22, 2012 at 10:32 AM

C’mon Hot Air!

As I just pulled up your site, 11 of the 35 articles on the page referred to Todd Akin — OVER 30%!

I doubt that if Israel had bombed Iran this morning you would have had this much coverage.

Give us a break. The guy made an idiotic statement. BIG DEAL! End of story.

Concerned_American on August 22, 2012 at 1:23 PM

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