Bounce: New polls show Romney leading in Michigan, Wisconsin after Ryan pick
posted at 8:01 pm on August 21, 2012 by Allahpundit
We need some good news. Second look at stealing the midwest right out from under Obama’s nose?
PPP’s first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP’s last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.
The biggest change Ryan’s selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney’s gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There’s also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that’s down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll…
Choosing Ryan as his running mate isn’t giving Romney any trouble with seniors in Wisconsin. That’s actually where his greatest strength is, leading Obama 52-43 with them. Which isn’t to say the Ryan Plan is popular in Wisconsin- only 40% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. But the concern with it is coming much more from young voters than seniors.
Two concerns with this poll. One: They’ve got the sample R+2, which isn’t totally nutty but still seems hard to believe for a presidential election in a reliably bluish state. Granted, the exit poll for Scott Walker’s recall win showed a net turnout of R+1, and granted, we’ve got a native son on the ticket this year. But the Dems’ turnout advantage four years ago was D+6. Are we really going to swing that a full eight points this time? I can see Romney winning the state, but not necessarily with a two-point spread for Republicans at the polls. Two: Behold the saddest of all demographic splits, my friends.
Senior citizens and near-seniors, who’ve already paid in and depend on their benefits being there right now, are actually pretty chill about The End Of Medicare As We Know It. Young adults, though, who’ll be sucked into a fiscal black hole if this program isn’t reformed in the near term? Total basket case. If ever you doubted the astounding influence of liberal orthodoxy on college students and recent grads, look at those numbers and let your doubts melt away.
Meanwhile, across the border in Michigan:
In the Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll for Fox 2 News Detroit of Michigan most likely voters in June, President Obama had a slight lead of 1.14 points (46.89% to 45.48%), within the margin of error. In the past seven weeks, not only has Mitt Romney stayed close, but now he has vaulted to the lead in Michigan. Our poll finding suggests that the naming of Paul Ryan as his running mate has given him the spark he needed. Romney now leads in Michigan by 3.8 points, a net gain of 5.21 points from June (Romney 47.68% to Obama 43.88%)…
In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney.
The good news? The sample here was big and well targeted: 1,733 respondents, all of whom identified as likely voters. Unfortunately, there’s no partisan split provided so it’s hard to tell who’s been oversampled. But this seems promising, even if the results in the “strongly support/oppose” columns aren’t:
The one hitch here is that, over the past two months, there’s been just one other poll showing Romney in the lead in Michigan, and that poll — Mitchell Reports, conducted on July 23 — showed him up by a single point. The most recent poll from Mitchell was conducted on August 13, two days after Ryan’s introduction as VP. That one showed Romney … suddenly trailing in Michigan by five points. Assuming that one’s accurate and the one quoted above is the outlier, I wonder what caused Mitt to dip. It’s probably not Ryan; Mediscare or no, a VP pick’s not going to weigh on the ticket that heavily that soon. It must be the Bain/tax attacks. Flag these two results now, as the next Michigan poll will settle the issue of who’s right.
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Sanford should tell Busch to go back to wherever the hell she came from.
Happy Nomad on May 6, 2013 at 10:46 AM
Good God, could this woman be any more obvious that she’s lying her ass off in order to get elected? Any right-leaning voter who pulls the lever for Sister of Colbert and then acts surprised when she becomes a lapdog for Pelosi once in office deserves to have the crap kicked out of them.
Doughboy on May 6, 2013 at 10:46 AM
She was asked about repealing ObamaCare, not passing new stuff. But then, I doubt she’s read ObamaCare either.
Fenris on May 6, 2013 at 10:48 AM
What a choice! If I lived in S.C., I would vote for Sanford. Every two years you get a chance to find a better Republican.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 10:51 AM
Lesser of two evils, I suppose.
Let’s not forget, he was a pretty reliable budget hawk. We don’t need more Al Frankens.
BuckeyeSam on May 6, 2013 at 10:52 AM
And she doesn’t want to talk about anything but winning on May 7th. You’d think a woman who wants to become a member of Congress would be able to speak intelligently about something so invasive as Obamacare. Just calling it problematic doesn’t answer the mail.
Happy Nomad on May 6, 2013 at 10:52 AM
I thought that also, but I think she is talking about repeal legislation. Of course as far as I’m concern Obamacare, with all the fill in the blank stuff, was hypothetical.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 10:55 AM
You gotta pass bills to see what’s in it, and you have to wait till she’s elected to see if she’ll vote for any of them. Just mind-boggling. She’d be a reliable vote for Obama and company, and shame on any Republican in that distrcit who’s folled into thinking otherwise. I know Sanford’s no prize, but really.
changer1701 on May 6, 2013 at 10:56 AM
Been burned too many times with polls last time….. President Romney anyone?
sandee on May 6, 2013 at 10:56 AM
If I were charged with First Degree Murder and Mark Sanford a criminal defense lawyer with a 100% acquittal rate, I might not like him but I’d definitely hire him.
Just saying…
Drained Brain on May 6, 2013 at 10:57 AM
Yeah but the Republican establishment finds Sanford so horrible that they pulled their support from him! I guess they like Pelosi and her minions.
Purity!
Vince on May 6, 2013 at 10:59 AM
I wasn’t rooting for Sanford, but I sure as hell am now. This woman can’t win.
Marcus on May 6, 2013 at 10:59 AM
Seems like that’s how all legislation is these days, and likely there will be no legislation that just says “Repealed”. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t call them out on their dereliction of duty.
Fenris on May 6, 2013 at 11:00 AM
I don’t buy that big of a swing in 2 weeks. I think PPP either cooked the earlier poll, cooked the recent one, or both.
I think they are just attempting to tighten the race so they can make sure the D’s are inspired to GOTV.
weaselyone on May 6, 2013 at 11:07 AM
Here’s the problem.
In recent years, the DCCC has proven pretty good (better than the NRCC, anyway) at winning special Congressional elections. Sanford’s operating alone without any help from the nationals in terms of getting the GOP base vote to turnout. If African-American turnout is higher than expected tomorrow (which is the core of the DCCC’s strategy here) Colbert-Busch probably takes this race.
Robert_Paulson on May 6, 2013 at 11:20 AM
Nothing a truckload a “lost votes” from the military and conservative distiricts can’t solve.
Add in some felons, illegal aliens, dead and multiple voters and it’s a “referendum” on the liberalizing of SC.
acyl72 on May 6, 2013 at 11:21 AM
People of SC, please vote for Sanford and then in two years run someone who isnt a dirt bag and vote that person in.
Jack_Burton on May 6, 2013 at 11:27 AM
Elizabeth Colbert Busch is no sweetheart. She was involved in a messy divorce, one that landed her in jail on contempt of court charges in 1988. You can see her mugshot and more in this link.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/05/must-see-elizabeth-colbert-busch-arrested-mug-shot-video/
Commonsense13 on May 6, 2013 at 11:33 AM
What in heaven’s name is wrong with you people in SC? I am in Augusta, just across the river, and you are scaring me!
ultracon on May 6, 2013 at 11:33 AM
Use your brain. All polls are not the same. Still, polls are based on empirical data. If you can’t parse/interpret data sets and outcomes I recommend more schooling.
Capitalist Hog on May 6, 2013 at 11:33 AM
yeah, in this day and age, I can’t imagine not supporting Sanford just to send a message to the gop elite. We need that seat and he’s no worse than a lot of them up there with their personal lives.
The gop eats their own.
hawkdriver on May 6, 2013 at 11:36 AM
Do you walk this Earth with a perpetual stick up your ass? Take a break, you don’t have to be a prick every day of your life.
hawkdriver on May 6, 2013 at 11:37 AM
Do you walk this Earth with a perpetual stick up your ass? Take a break, you don’t have to be a pr!ck every day of your life.
hawkdriver on May 6, 2013 at 11:38 AM
Woo. Raising her voice in court because her ex-husband was trying to get custody of the kids.
stingray9813 on May 6, 2013 at 11:40 AM
PPP means Piss-Poor Polling. They can be accurate when they want to, but they often use push-polling and fake polls to advance their political positions, and you have no way of knowing which is which.
slickwillie2001 on May 6, 2013 at 11:42 AM
As much as the RNC (and many here) may crave an abortion supporting, global warming zealot to beat Sanford on ‘principal’, they lose again. Sanford wins in a walk and will owe them nothing. The RNC, meanwhile will have no such qualms about supporting countless DC lifers who are habitual adulterers, but DON’T marry their girlfriends. Sanford left his wife to marry a woman he fell in love with. That’s a Disney movie compared to what goes on every day in the DC cesspool most congressmen swim in.
AmeriCuda on May 6, 2013 at 11:46 AM
Everyone who thinks she’d be a place-holder for two years then get tossed needs to remember Claire McCaskill. You can’t let a snake in the house and guarantee you can sweep it out later no problem.
Marcus on May 6, 2013 at 11:46 AM
Something Gov. Sanford would probably never dream of bringing up.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 11:48 AM
Going back to being his worst nightmare is not a valid option.
Myron Falwell on May 6, 2013 at 11:49 AM
“Can Sanford succeed in his improbable comeback?” is a question that has little or nothing to do with this race. Of course he will win election, as he should in this R+lots district.
But he will never get elected anywhere else though, and hopefully this race has made that fact clear; so his “improbable comeback” is an epithet that will never be written.
The real question is not about some dream of a comeback, it’s will he spend election night with his supporters or will he be out walking the Appalachian trail?
MTF on May 6, 2013 at 11:50 AM
LOL! Sometimes they need to eat their own. I would just suggest that they chew more slowly and consider carefully whether swallowing a less than tasty but harmless offering or embracing two years unfortunate side effects. I was under the impression that this was a conservative district and they nominated him, it doesn’t seem like it should even be a contest but here we are.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 11:52 AM
You know that only liberals can get away with that crap. I’m sure the Dems think that Gov. Haley’s Indian heritage is far scarier than Ms. Busch’s Canadian roots. Democrats seem to imply that their own constituency is less that cosmopolitan. You would think that they would get tired of being insulted.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 11:57 AM
Sod off Captain Danvers.
There are scenarios wherein I edit, abridge or soften my words out of concern for my audience. As a mentor and frequent guest at the homes of friends, family and employees I am around kids a lot. When kids are in the room their presence is a priority. Aside from that….get bent.
I am very plainly spoken. I don’t insult without acknowledging that I am doing so. I don’t mask my flaws to make my point. True, I go hard…most of the time. Why should I express my thoughts about others with any less scrutiny than I apply to myself?
Thank you for your service. Now, why don’t you do what you’re always making a grand production to others about doing? Ignore me.
Capitalist Hog on May 6, 2013 at 12:04 PM
Wow, you are so cool.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 12:10 PM
As one who lives in this district and didn’t vote for Sanford in the primary or the runoff, I will be pulling the lever for him tomorrow. My wife is ready to vote for him as well. It isn’t that we have come around to being pro Sanford so much as being sick of the negative campaign ads being purchased by the Dem/ liberal money pouring into the state. You can’t find a single reason to vote FOR Colbert-Busch…. only reasons NOT to vote for Sanford. We’re frackin’ sick of it!
Storybec on May 6, 2013 at 12:33 PM
I, thankfully, have no dog in that hunt; being in Colorado. Both candidates make a football bat look perfectly functional. And both are detestable. Still and all, a Sanford win, against all odds and with the RNC pulling out AND celebrity support for the Democrat; would have to cause more than a little concern on the Left. If they cannot pull that one out, or have to resort to the normal Democrat vote fraud tactics in a race they should walk away with; means that they are going to have to crank the fraud up to 11 or 12 as a starting point for any putative midterm elections.
Subotai Bahadur on May 6, 2013 at 12:36 PM
If Dems put a lot of money in your area and still lose, I think that’s my definition of a successful stimulus program. I’m praying for y’all.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 12:38 PM
Show polls with Democrats up big amounts right up until a week before the election and then report accurate numbers right before the election to protect their professional reputation – Typical PPP manuever.
[That said I'm hoping for a Colbert-Busch win in this meaningless election just to dump all of Sanford's baggage that will just feed the "war on women" meme. Irrelevant stuff like that gets nationalized if Sanford sticks around.]
blammm on May 6, 2013 at 12:43 PM
Another black eye for the republican party.
rubberneck on May 6, 2013 at 12:44 PM
Why does that sound so much like “We need to pass it to see what’s in it?”
This shouldn’t even be close, much less this close. I guess there was no one else who could have gone for the position? That’s sadder than anything else involving this election.
DrAllecon on May 6, 2013 at 12:47 PM
Black eyes are temporary.
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 12:49 PM
After PPP was proven to be one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012 you are still going for this “the polls are lying” conspiracy crap. The only tomfoolery was the “unskewed” polling sites.
libfreeordie on May 6, 2013 at 2:09 PM
I set the “over/under” for the GOP nominee at 53% BEFORE the primaries and nothing has changed, despite the unions and national Democrats spending over $1 million in attack ads. SC-CD-1 isn’t going to send a union stooge to DC, no matter how much lipstick you put on the pig.
SC incumbents don’t get “primaried” out of office, so all you meddling outsiders shouldn’t get your hopes up. OTOH, in your pathetic ignorance and self-righteous posturing, you may not know about Mark Sanford:
1. Won congressional primary in 1994 vs several establishment Republicans including state party chairman
2. Pledged not to accept PAC $$ and didn’t
3. Pledged to serve no more than three terms and did it
4. Slept on office couch first year in office to save money
5. Shared apartment with other Republican congressmen, never bought house in DC
6. Came home to SC every weekend at own expense
7. Was only Member of Congress who returned office expense money to Treasury every year from 1995-2001 – including Ron Paul
8. Retired, but was talked into running for Governor by grassroots Republicans
9. Won primary vs former Governor, sitting AG & Secretary of State
10. Was mentor and encouraged reformers Haley and Scott to seek higher office
11. Brought pigs to legislature to protest pork
WHO in the GOP has a better record of proposed reform and spending cuts than Sanford? Other than nuts like Paul, no one.
But we thank you interlopers for your interference, we will persevere despite no help countering the unions and Pelosi PACs from outside. We invite you to visit, spend lots of money, and then go home.
We don’t care how you do it up north, mmmkay?
Adjoran on May 6, 2013 at 2:47 PM
I can’t speak for anyone else but I hope he wins. Don’t they get multiple votes up north?
Cindy Munford on May 6, 2013 at 2:56 PM
Dead heat goes to the dem. GOP voters aren’t going to be anxious to head to the polls to vote for this guy. They might say over the phone that they support him, but actually showing up? Nah. Not going to happen.
Rational Thought on May 6, 2013 at 3:32 PM
So Sanford had an affair and lied about it? And THAT is supposed to make him poison to women? As I recall, we had a President with that on his record and women love him. Perhaps Sanford is on to something here. The worse he treats women, the more they love him. This might be something for future Republican candidates to think about. Have an affair and then run for office.
duggersd on May 6, 2013 at 4:31 PM
Shortly after she clarified that she would NOT vote to repal Obama’care’, that she misspoke.
Schadenfreude on May 6, 2013 at 5:13 PM
Bill Clinton has two black eyes? Really?
Schadenfreude on May 6, 2013 at 5:15 PM
Sanford by 3+
SouthernGent on May 6, 2013 at 6:44 PM