Rasmussen: Romney edging Obama in Wisconsin 48/47

posted at 2:56 pm on August 16, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Three weeks ago, Barack Obama had a narrow three-point lead in Wisconsin over Mitt Romney, 49/46.  In a poll taken yesterday of likely voters, Rasmussen notes that the race has shifted subtly.  Now Romney has the edge in a virtual tie over Obama, 48/47:

The presidential race in Wisconsin is a little tighter this month following Mitt Romney’s selection of hometown Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 48% support to President Obama’s 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In late July, it was Obama 49%, Romney 46%.  This is the Republican’s largest level of support yet in the Badger State. Prior to this survey, the president has earned 45% to 52% of the vote, while Romney has picked up 41% to 46% of the vote.

Don’t get too excited over the results, at least not yet.  The shift here is within the poll’s margin of error.  It’s still better than the non-shift in yesterday’s Rasmussen poll of Florida, which still shows Romney edging Obama within the MoE and both candidates dropping.

Still, this result in Wisconsin seems to show that native son Paul Ryan will have a positive impact on Romney’s chances to be the first Republican to win Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984′s 49-state landslide.  That threatens to put pressure on Obama in Iowa and even Minnesota, although my state’s ability to go red has been a perpetual pipe dream since 1972.  It might force Obama to spend resources here that would have normally gone into Iowa and Missouri, though, two states that Ryan can definitely help Romney win.

The internals look pretty good for Romney in Wisconsin.  His three-point edge comes entirely from independents (46/43), while party loyalty is all but complete (only 1% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats switching).  Romney wins double-digit leads and majorities in the two older age demographics, but loses the under-40 demo by 19 points.  That’s hardly unexpected, and it might be better than Republicans would expect.

On favorability, Romney has even better news.  He’s +10 overall at 54/44, and he’s even a net positive among women (51/48) and even among the under-40 demo at 49/49.  Ryan’s favorability is even higher at 57/36, 52/40 among women and 46/42 among younger voters.  Among independents, Ryan gets a 61/31 +30 in favorability — a big boost, as Romney is only a +7 at 53/46.  Obama’s ObamaCare scares more voters than Ryan’s proposed changes to Medicare (48/42), with a +14 among independents in favor of Ryan (46/32), but a -7 among women (43/50).

The key question is whether Ryan on the ticket makes Wisconsin voters more likely to vote for Romney; overall, it’s a +15 at 46/31.  Among Republicans and Democrats, this probably measures enthusiasm more than an actual game-changer, since party loyalty is all but complete already.  On that basis, Romney gets an edge, since it helps with 85% of Republicans, while hurting with only 65% of Democrats.  Among independents, though, the gap is a +21, 49/28.  This could be a very big deal, especially with the advantages of Republican organization over the past year in GOTV efforts for the recall elections.

 


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Red WI.

Bmore on August 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Go Pack!

Bmore on August 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

steebo77′s Daily Swing State Report - August 16, 2012

State / Rolling Average / Latest Poll / Electoral Votes
Indiana / Romney +15.5% / Jul 31 / 11
Georgia / Romney +11.2% / May 22 / 16
Arizona / Romney +9.4% / Jul 24 / 11
Missouri / Romney +5.3% / Aug 10 / 10
North Carolina / Romney +2.0% / Aug 3 / 15
National (tracking only) / Romney +1.1% / Aug 14 / NA
Florida / Romney +0.5% / Aug 15 / 29
National (w/ tracking) / Romney +0.3% / Aug 14 / NA
Iowa / Romney -0.6% / Aug 8 / 6
Virginia / Romney -1.0% / Aug 13 / 13
Colorado / Romney -1.2% / Aug 13 / 9
Ohio / Romney -1.7% / Aug 13 / 18
New Hampshire / Romney -2.4% / Aug 10 / 4
National (w/o tracking) / Romney -2.7% / Aug 14 / NA
Wisconsin / Romney -3.8% / Aug 15 / 10
Nevada / Romney -4.2% / Jul 24 / 6
Michigan / Romney -4.6% / Jul 27 / 16
Pennsylvania / Romney -6.0% / Aug 9 / 20
Oregon / Romney -7.1% / Jun 22 / 7
Connecticut / Romney -8.4% / Jul 27 / 7
Minnesota / Romney -8.5% / Jul 18 / 10
New Mexico / Romney -9.3% / Jul 14 / 5
New Jersey / Romney -11.3% / Jul 26 / 14
Maine / Romney -12.7% / Jun 22 / 4
Washington / Romney -12.7% / Aug 1 / 12

steebo77 on August 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Say Cheese!

hillsoftx on August 16, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Scott Walker’s reforms are working.
The nastiness of the unions and the ‘fleebaggers’ did not go unnoticed.
Wisconsinites are not stupid.
Obama should be afraid.
Very afraid.

Dexter_Alarius on August 16, 2012 at 2:59 PM

If you people lived in Wisconsin, they’d make you eat cheese!

- Stupid Joe

OhEssYouCowboys on August 16, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Rasmussen also has Romney up 2 in FL, in line with Purple Strategies from yesterday.

bayview on August 16, 2012 at 3:02 PM

I bet ‘ol Markos is going to be posting twice a day now. This is getting serious!

Last Monday he posted twice about Ryan. Once to say that was the pick dems wanted all along and the second one to say the repubs are giving away the election by feeding their rabid base.

DanMan on August 16, 2012 at 3:03 PM

I think Romney/Repubs got WI when WI got what was happening to their state and country and kept Walker. Ohio, you’re next. Can you say Pennsylvania? Florida is already in the bag.

RobertMN on August 16, 2012 at 3:03 PM

As always, I cant wait for the liberal spin.

milcus on August 16, 2012 at 3:03 PM

They say that that Rasmussen poll has us behind in Wisconsin! Well, I’m here to tell you that my favorite team is the Green Bay Vikings, and we ain’t givin’ this state up yet!

- Stupid Joe
[Speaking at a $5,000 per plate dinner in Kansas City]

OhEssYouCowboys on August 16, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Steebo – you should drop Washington. Maine and Jersey will be officialy gone after the conventions.

I’m surprised Oregon is only +7 for Barry.

budfox on August 16, 2012 at 3:04 PM

The War Planner on August 16, 2012 at 3:01 PM

More likely that Hilary said no.

cozmo on August 16, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Mitt will win IA. The state knows Mitt won’t go after the ag subsidies and without that card to play, all Barry has left are social justice and skin pigment. I’ve still got a couple of sibs living there and unemployment is more of a problem than is generally recognized.

a capella on August 16, 2012 at 3:05 PM

It might force Obama to spend resources here that would have normally gone into Iowa and Missouri, though, two states that Ryan can definitely help Romney win.

No offense, but if Romney needs to spend a dime in Missouri, he ain’t winning this thing. Iowa is more unpredictable due to their addiction to ethanol subsidies, but even McCain won Missouri(albeit barely).

Doughboy on August 16, 2012 at 3:05 PM

At what point does Obama admit defeat to himself and start issuing America-destroying executive orders with Congress out?

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

The War Planner on August 16, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Not sure whether that was Palin or McCain’s doing. Barry large ego is such that he will continue to believe that he can will reelection just be being Barry the Magnificent. He thinks that his jive acts and con jobs will still work. He will never be able to face the prospect of history books writing that he has to go to Hillary to save his re-election.

bayview on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

They want you to pay for your cheese! We’ll put you in cheese lines, and it’s gonna be free!

- Stupid Joe
[Actually getting it right]

OhEssYouCowboys on August 16, 2012 at 3:08 PM

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

He and Michelle will bitterly cling to the possibilty that they can win until the lawyers tell them there ain’t enough illegal Chicago votes to matter. I put that around November 9th, or 10th.

cozmo on August 16, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Don’t get too excited over the results, at least not yet. The shift here is within the poll’s margin of error.

Does anyone else think when reading this statement, “What’s the confidence level?”

Goldenavatar on August 16, 2012 at 3:11 PM

At what point does Obama admit defeat to himself and start issuing America-destroying executive orders with Congress out?

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Immediately after the election at every oppurtunity.

DanMan on August 16, 2012 at 3:11 PM

BOOM!

No need to mock your guy hard donks…

we just need to point to your “results”…

Grifter Donks YOUR TIME IS UP!

harlekwin15 on August 16, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Goldenavatar on August 16, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Not as much as I think about the trend.

cozmo on August 16, 2012 at 3:12 PM

I think Romney/Repubs got WI when WI got what was happening to their state and country and kept Walker. Ohio, you’re next. Can you say Pennsylvania? Florida is already in the bag.

RobertMN on August 16, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Agree. Reposting my comment from the headlines:

It’s my belief that Romney would not have chosen Ryan if he didn’t already think OH and FL were wrapped up. Obama is so awful that we are back to the 2004 map. Romney knows he will put enough Bush 2004 states in his column to win (incl. IA) and is now going on offense in Kerry 2004 states like WI and PA (and WI was very close in 2004).

If he were worried about OH or FL he would have gone with Portman or Rubio.

Missy on August 16, 2012 at 3:13 PM

At what point does Obama admit defeat to himself and start issuing America-destroying executive orders with Congress out?

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

If Obama loses, his spite will know no bounds.

Worse than the executive orders will be the number of pardons he might give to hard-core criminals even on death row–those of the type to commit mass murders and serial rapes.

Liam on August 16, 2012 at 3:14 PM

It might force Obama to spend resources here that would have normally gone into Iowa and Missouri, though, two states that Ryan can definitely help Romney win.

Missouri is not a problem. Obama won’t flip a single McCain state.

Missy on August 16, 2012 at 3:14 PM

It’s been amazing to watch WI’s evolution. Remember kloppenburg(spelling?) And all that crap? Palin speaking in Madison with Breitbart surrounded by union goons? Recall elections the whole country followed?

wolly4321 on August 16, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Just heard on the radio here in PA that a new F and M poll is out that shows Romney gaining ground on obama. Time to call and volunteer!

Paddington on August 16, 2012 at 3:15 PM

steebo77 on August 16, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Appreciate the tabulation. Hope you really can do that daily.

Does anyone else think when reading this statement, “What’s the confidence level?”

Goldenavatar on August 16, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Unfortunately, “What’s the frequency, Kenneth?” is seared, seared in my brain.

de rigueur on August 16, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Obama is only up 5 and back in June he led by 12. (That is in PA)

Paddington on August 16, 2012 at 3:19 PM

48/47? Should be 52/43.

bernzright777 on August 16, 2012 at 3:20 PM

And if Israel bombs Iran back to the 19th century in a few weeks, O’s lack of leadership will drag him even further down.

AubieJon on August 16, 2012 at 3:21 PM

..semi-OT: Seems Obama took the bait and is sticking with VPOTUS FLATLINE. McLame and Sarah sandbagged the bastage and forced him to pass over The Mankled Pantsuit yet again again again.

The War Planner on August 16, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Y’know, this technique of getting Palin to advise little Bammie to do something, as a way of blocking little Bammie from doing that, is an interesting tactic. Let’s think of other ways to use it.

slickwillie2001 on August 16, 2012 at 3:22 PM

Mutts for Mitt all agree …
Better in the crate than on the plate.

timberline on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

At what point does Obama admit defeat to himself and start issuing America-destroying executive orders with Congress out?

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

I agree that Obama would go pedal-to-the-metal on his America-destroying agenda if it started to look like a landslide.

michaelthomas on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Oh SNAP…………..Ryan’s MOM (who’s on Medicare)to stump with Ryan in FL. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/paul-ryan-set-to-appear-with-mom-at-worlds-largest-retirement-community-defend-medicare-plan/

This just gets better and better.

AYNBLAND on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

48/47? Should be 52/43.

bernzright777 on August 16, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Give it time…give it time.

NJ Red on August 16, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Mutts for Mitt all agree …
Better in the crate than on the plate.

timberline on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

LOL good one!!

NJ Red on August 16, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Oh SNAP…………..Ryan’s MOM (who’s on Medicare)to stump with Ryan in FL. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/paul-ryan-set-to-appear-with-mom-at-worlds-largest-retirement-community-defend-medicare-plan/

This just gets better and better.

AYNBLAND on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

The Village’s.

MontanaMmmm on August 16, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Don’t know what the current numbers are in PA, but the Dems I know have all gone quiet. I’m thinking they’ll stay home and try to forget Obama ever happened.

Which, btw, won’t be possible because he’ll be made the next head of the U.N.

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Bush – 1,300 convictions;

Clinton – 1,000 convictions;

Obama – Zero attempts.

We have had 16 years of Federal prosecutions of investment malfeasance in two different administrations and two different political parties numbering in thousands of cases. Now, we have four years of no prosecutions whatsoever.

VorDaj on August 16, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Oh SNAP…………..Ryan’s MOM (who’s on Medicare)to stump with Ryan in FL. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/paul-ryan-set-to-appear-with-mom-at-worlds-largest-retirement-community-defend-medicare-plan/

This just gets better and better.

AYNBLAND on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Well the good news is we know the Dems would never smear the family members of Vice Presidential candidates, right?

/

Doughboy on August 16, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Does anyone else think when reading this statement, “What’s the confidence level?”

Goldenavatar on August 16, 2012 at 3:11 PM

A statistician, eh? Now you have me remembering something about one-tailed p-statistics. *shivers*

freedomfirst on August 16, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Seriously, there isn’t a single person in this country that is going to change their vote TO Obama.

His team and adminstration have done absolutely nothing positive recently to convert anyone that was undecided.

The Bush administration and the McCain campain had a major problem in delivering their message and the media destroyed them. Romney/Ryan do not have that problem and that will make all the difference.

JetBlast on August 16, 2012 at 3:35 PM

We have had 16 years of Federal prosecutions of investment malfeasance in two different administrations and two different political parties numbering in thousands of cases. Now, we have four years of no prosecutions whatsoever.

VorDaj on August 16, 2012 at 3:30 PM

The GAI, Peter Schweitzer’s group, put out a study on this in the last two weeks. The DoJ and much of Obama’s inner circle are packed with lawyers, et al from Goldman-Sachs, AIG, MF-Global and others. There’s no wonder none of these guys are being prosecuted, especially Jon Corzine.

AubieJon on August 16, 2012 at 3:35 PM

At what point does Obama admit defeat to himself and start issuing America-destroying executive orders with Congress out?

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

One thing’s for sure. Even though getting rid of him will be awesome, that couple of months between the election and Inauguration Day are going to suck.

CurtZHP on August 16, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Obama is only up 5 and back in June he led by 12. (That is in PA)

Paddington on August 16, 2012 at 3:19 PM

Not only that, look at the party ID skew on that Franklin and Marshall poll. 50D/37R/12I. The 2008 PA exits showed 44D/37R/18I.

Anyone think Obama has improved 6 points in PA since 2008? Yeah, me neither.

(h/t Rick Ballard at JustOneMinute for catching this)

Missy on August 16, 2012 at 3:37 PM

There’s a big reason we should be pushing for more accurate polling: You can be the campaigns have more accurate internal polling than we’ll see from any of the pollsters, and if Obambi’s internals show him going down, who knows what kind of unrest his people will kick up in October.

He would only have to get Trumka to have his truckers strike for one week to empty the shelves in most cities in America, blame the rich for it and let the cities burn.

We all have to hope and pray that his hatred for America doesn’t extend to putting it through riots and pain to hold onto power.

PastorJon on August 16, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Steebo – you should drop Washington. Maine and Jersey will be officialy gone after the conventions.

budfox on August 16, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Hell no! Wait until Chris Christie gives his keynote speech, and then give us a week to toe the red line. If not for the rampaging fraud in urban cesspools like Newark and Camden, New Jersey would be squarely in Mitt’s column. The crisis spared the state but I think our populous suburbs will vote this time, and they will vote heavily.

As for Maine, it’s so heavily libertarian I wouldn’t be surprised if Gary Johnson is polling in two digits there. Give Ron Paul a respectful convention slot, make an unequivocal endorsement arrangement that touts entitlement reform and budget cuts, and you’ll at least force Obama to defend the state.

Archivarix on August 16, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Steebo – you should drop Washington. Maine and Jersey will be officialy gone after the conventions.

budfox on August 16, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Maine will be a leading indicator on election night. If Romney wins Maine Obama lost. Done and done. We wouldn’t even need to count the other states because the outcome would be a forgone conclusion.

NotCoach on August 16, 2012 at 3:43 PM

VorDaj on August 16, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Why No Prosecutions?

AubieJon on August 16, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Barack Obama lies when his lips move and he speaks.

Michelle’s moving and non-speaking lips tell a story too.

Plus, what’s with that pizz-parlor table cloth?

Schadenfreude on August 16, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Oh SNAP…………..Ryan’s MOM (who’s on Medicare)to stump with Ryan in FL. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/paul-ryan-set-to-appear-with-mom-at-worlds-largest-retirement-community-defend-medicare-plan/

This just gets better and better.

AYNBLAND on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Isn’t this a place for the wealthy to live? Seems like an opening for Obama to demogog. Just wonderin’.

dbrhmccrtr on August 16, 2012 at 3:52 PM

I’m surprised Oregon is only +7 for Barry.

budfox on August 16, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Try living here. *shudder*

sockpuppetpolitic on August 16, 2012 at 3:56 PM

I am pleasantly surprised to see Ø only leading by 8 here in (normally) deepest blue Connectiut. He beat McCain 60/38 back in 08. That’s a heck of a swing.

LibraryGryffon on August 16, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Oh SNAP…………..Ryan’s MOM (who’s on Medicare)to stump with Ryan in FL. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/paul-ryan-set-to-appear-with-mom-at-worlds-largest-retirement-community-defend-medicare-plan/
This just gets better and better.
AYNBLAND on August 16, 2012 at 3:23 PM
Isn’t this a place for the wealthy to live? Seems like an opening for Obama to demogog. Just wonderin’.
dbrhmccrtr on August 16, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Actually, they have various priced neighborhoods. You don’t have to be “rich” to live there.

karenhasfreedom on August 16, 2012 at 4:26 PM

The polls are only going to get better with the convention. Romney will win this race by at least 5% in the popular vote. I said it in April and I’m saying it now.

MJBrutus on August 16, 2012 at 4:34 PM

ON WISCONSIN!!!!

Romney is looking good here in Ohio! The big counties like Cuyahoga(cleveland) Lucas(Toledo) Summit(akron) Montgomery(Dayton) probably will go blue. Same with Franklin(CBus)and Hamilton(cincy). But those two counties I don’t think will go overwhelmingly Obozo.

As for Wisconsin, Obozo loses that, he is toast!

anchorman on August 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

pleasantly surprised to see Ø only leading by 8 here in (normally) deepest blue Connectiut. He beat McCain 60/38 back in 08. That’s a heck of a swing.

Maybe Romney won’t win that state, but maybe it will be one of those states that splits and Linda McMahon will win. I will take another senate seat.

Another seat we have to watch is Michigan. Debbie Spenditnow could be in some trouble. Hoekstra is a good candidate!

anchorman on August 16, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Dick Morris is saying that NMexico will go Romney. A bold prediction no doubt, but it wouldn’t surprise me. If I were the Romney campaign I would be focusing on michigan. His poll numbers have been good there!

anchorman on August 16, 2012 at 4:51 PM

anchorman on August 16, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Maybe he won’t, but it is a terrific sign that he is keeping it competitive in places like that. It means that Obama is going to have spend time and resource just holding on to it. During the primaries I said that Mitt will force this race to be played on the blue side of the field. That PBHO will be spending all of his time just trying to hold to most of the places he won last time and not having a chance of keeping some of those.

MJBrutus on August 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

How I became George Obama’s ‘brother’

By Dinesh D’Souza

A few days ago I received a call from a man I recently met named George. He was a bit flustered, and soon informed me that his young son was sick with a chest condition. He pleaded with me to send him $1,000 to cover the medical bills. Since George was at the hospital I asked him to let me speak to a nurse, and she confirmed that George’s son was indeed ill. So I agreed to send George the money through Western Union. He was profusely grateful. But before I hung up I asked George, “Why are you coming to me?” He said, “I have no one else to ask.” Then he said something that astounded me, “Dinesh, you are like a brother to me.”

Actually, George has a real life brother who just happens to be the president of the United States. (George Obama is the youngest of eight children sired by Barack Obama Sr.) George’s brother is a multimillionaire and the most powerful man in the world. Moreover, George’s brother has framed his re-election campaign around the “fair share” theme that we owe obligations to those who are less fortunate.

One of Obama’s favorite phrases comes right out of the Bible: “We are our brother’s keeper.” Yet he has not contributed a penny to help his own brother. And evidently George does not believe, even in times of emergency, that he can turn to his brother in the White House for help.

So much for spreading the wealth around.

Continue:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/08/16/how-became-george-obama-brother/

Resist We Much on August 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

So much for spreading the wealth around.

Resist We Much on August 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Obama wants to spread YOUR wealth around.

MJBrutus on August 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

How I Became George Obama’s ‘Brother’ (with pictures)

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/08/how-i-became-george-obamas-brother.html

M2RB: The Hollies (A tribute to our troops, past and present)

Resist We Much on August 16, 2012 at 5:21 PM

If Conservatives in Wisconsin get out to vote, then Romney will win the state just as Scott Walker did, twice.

OxyCon on August 16, 2012 at 11:43 PM

At what point does Obama admit defeat to himself and start issuing America-destroying executive orders with Congress out?

ROCnPhilly on August 16, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Obama won’t admit defeat, but his administration is alread pumping out new job and economy killing rules, regulations, and penalties faster than the Treasure can print its funny money to devalue the dollar.

But you point is well taken. Obama can and will do massive damage before January 21, 2013.

BMF on August 17, 2012 at 10:43 AM