Swing state poll: After picking Ryan, Romney now leads in Ohio, Virginia — and Florida

posted at 5:21 pm on August 15, 2012 by Allahpundit

Via Guy Benson, no self-respecting eeyore would leave a headline as rosy as the above unchecked, so here’s me checking it right off the bat. According to Gallup’s tracker, Romney’s gotten almost no bounce from the Ryan pick — yet. They’ve seen a bit of movement in the last two days, so there may be a “delayed bounce” coming, but little in the two days before that. In fact, here’s Nate Silver scanning across the dial:

So there you go. Now that my pessimistic conscience is clear, here’s some happier news from the Purple Poll, which focuses on Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. It stands to reason that Romney’s veep pick might make greater waves there because those voters are already paying closer attention to the election than voters nationwide are. So far, so good:

Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July.

However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in July…

Romney’s personal image appears to have improved following the announcement: 45% favorable, 48% unfavorable. While still net unfavorable, this represents a substantial improvement from July, when he was net -8. For the first time in the PurplePoll we tested Obama’s favorability (we have been testing job performance), and we found him to have a very similar rating as Romney: 47% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

Ryan’s the only guy on either ticket whose favorable rating is net positive right now, but don’t read much into that. VP candidates always start out with the benefit of the doubt and then see their numbers dip as the other side goes to work on them. More interesting is the fact that The One’s alleged “likability gap” with Romney is gone in these swing states. What a shame that the Purple Poll didn’t poll his favorables before; I’m dying to know if he’s been unpopular for months or whether the endless attacks on Romney are just now starting to blow up in his face.

Another likely contributing factor to his popularity being underwater? The trendline on the economy (August is the first column on the left):

Match that up with O’s job approval over the same time span:

Here’s how his job approval stands in Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, respectively:

Jay Cost has been arguing for months that O’s in deep trouble, his small lead over Romney notwithstanding, because incumbents typically pull in a vote share on election day that’s roughly equal to their job approval rating. Look again at his numbers in those last three states and think hard about that.

As for the Democrats’ Mediscare prospects against Ryan, here’s another verrry interesting result from the four states polled. Again, from left to right, it’s Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, respectively, answering the question, “Who is more likely to protect Medicare?” Obama’s on the first line, Romney on the second:

Obama leads by double digits in the first three states, but in Florida, which is supposed to be ground zero for Mediscaring, he’s up by just one thin point. How come? Is it simply that Florida’s a bit redder than other swing states this year? Or have seniors there been paying closer attention to the Medicare debate all along and find themselves ambivalent between Ryan’s plan and Obama’s $700 billion raiding of the program? If it’s the latter, that bodes awfully well for Romney’s strategy of taking the fight to O on this issue. In fact, here’s a deeper breakdown from Florida. Note the second data set:

Lots of messaging work to be done here by Romney and Ryan, obviously, if they want to shrink O’s Medicare lead across swing states generally, but they’re in better shape on Ryan’s budget than the media would lead you to believe. Whew.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Stick a fork in him!

TXMomof3 on August 15, 2012 at 5:23 PM

This poll is Racist.

Or something.

Del Dolemonte on August 15, 2012 at 5:23 PM

The combined Purple Poll shows independents favoring Romney over Obama 50-39. Among independents, Obama has favorability of 38/55 and approval of 37/55.

DKCZ on August 15, 2012 at 5:26 PM

OH dear, bho/team needs to get more attack dogs out to stop this maddness of Mitt/Ryan polls STAT on this good news? Wonder what new thing they are going to come up with?
L

letget on August 15, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Good. Bounces are good. Bounces that stay up are even better.

natasha333 on August 15, 2012 at 5:29 PM

This is awesome. Go team RR…

OmahaConservative on August 15, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Josh Mandel now tied with Senator Brown in Ohio.

Trends.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Erskine Bowles needs a remote car starter. Says Obama, not Ryan, responsible for failure of commission.

a capella on August 15, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Oh spare me the no “Ryan Bounce” the freaking race was tied with no one getting an edge, now Romney is developing a modest edge. BY the way, my big hope is that these are primarily conservatives who were still holding out from backing Romney. Most pundits discount this assuming voting against Obama would send them to the polls anyway.

rob verdi on August 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

More interesting is the fact that The One’s alleged “likability gap” with Romney is gone in these swing states.

Heh. Like him as much as you want to in blue states, libtards. As long as OH, FL, and VA know the truth it’s ballgame.

Kataklysmic on August 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Jay Cost has been arguing for months that O’s in deep trouble, his small lead over Romney notwithstanding, because incumbents typically pull in a vote share on election day that’s roughly equal to their job approval rating. Look again at his numbers in those last three states and think hard about that.

Jay Cost has it right as long as the alternative is at least acceptable. As long as people are not afraid of Mitt, the election is a referendum on Obama. My election predictions of a Romney landslide have been heavily influenced by Obama’s underwater approval.

That is why all that PBHO can do is try to make Mitt (and Ryan) look scary. It’s a futile strategy as there is nothing at all about Mitt for those who can be persuaded to fear. Obama is running a sewer campaign because he has absolutely nothing else.

MJBrutus on August 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Trouble for Obama. Look for more unhingedness coming.

22044 on August 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Breaking News! Harry Reid Is Guilty Of Attempting To Kill People At The Family Research Council!

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/08/breaking-news-harry-reid-is-guilty-of.html

M(?)2RB: Gucci Mane

Resist We Much on August 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Be afraid, liberalists, be very afraid.

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Erskine Bowles needs a remote car starter. Says Obama, not Ryan, responsible for failure of commission.

a capella on August 15, 2012 at 5:30 PM

I’m loving Bowles right now. And I don’t think for a second that the Clintons haven’t had a heavy hand in his recent messaging.

Kataklysmic on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Bounce!

TROUNCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

chickasaw42 on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

He’s bouncing like oblah blahs checkbook!!

RealMc on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

B..b..but Reuters own poll said the pick didn’t help Romney at all!

rrpjr on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Stay on offense, people like winners. Defense indicates weakness. Keep team O on defense. Hit hard, hit often.

Charlemagne on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

National Polls
47.4 43.9 Obama +3.5

Electoral College
237 191

Intrade Odds
56.6 42.5

Battlegrounds Obama Romney RCP Average
Ohio 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0
Virginia 47.2 45.0 Obama +2.2
Florida 47.3 45.6 Obama +1.7
Iowa 45.3 44.3 Obama +1.0
North Carolina 47.3 48.3 Romney +1.0
Colorado 47.5 46.5 Obama +1.0
Nevada 49.3 44.0 Obama +5.3
Missouri 42.5 48.8 Romney +6.3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

I havent figured out why people pick just one polls results when this site already provides you an average of all polls.

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

no self-respecting eeyore would leave a headline as rosy as the above unchecked, so here’s me checking it right off the bat.

Gotta nip that optimism in the bud, eh?

squint on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

…OH oh!…trollstenselytieingtesticlestogether!

KOOLAID2 on August 15, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Heh. Like him as much as you want to in blue states, libtards. As long as OH, FL, and VA know the truth it’s ballgame.

Kataklysmic on August 15, 2012 at 5:31 PM

If he gets those three states along with NC & the other 191 votes already in Romney’s column, Romney gets to 266. One more state & it’s his.

22044 on August 15, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Veep picks typically don’t produce much of a bounce. And I suspect that trend will continue as the electorate gets increasingly sorted by ideology/party.

Karl on August 15, 2012 at 5:34 PM

but at the same time…do. not. get. cocky.

22044 on August 15, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I havent figured out why people pick just one polls results when this site already provides you an average of all polls.

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

You’re new here eh? Tricks? That fits.

Tell us if RCP uses outliers and the mix of D v R v I in the polls they use?

BTW dimwit. 99 percent of regular HAheads know about RCP.FO.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Polidummy-also you do realize some polls use companies that poll likely voters and some use any breathing adults. You’re not very bright.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

I can see Pantload and his advisers passing around the Alinsky two page play book…

… turning it from page 1 to page 2, then back to 1, and them back to 2.

Seven Percent Solution on August 15, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Yup, Ryan gets no female attraction points. heh

If I could and had a grandson, a son, a husband, a boyfriend, or a brother, I would pick Ryan to be that person.

This guy is off the charts…with the brains, character, values and ability to speak in front of a camera. Bring it on.

Much more approachable and unaffected than JFK.

Kudos, Mitt.

Typicalwhitewoman on August 15, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Josh Mandel now tied with Senator Brown in Ohio.

Trends.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Hoping and praying that Mandel takes the lead soon and holds onto it.

Of course, in the largest Ohio county…the bastion of all things liberal and corrupt…Brown will prevail. However, if the conservatives downstate come through, Mandel has a good chance of winning this.

GrannyDee on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

“Obama leads by double digits in the first three states, but in Florida, which is supposed to be ground zero for Mediscaring, he’s up by just one thin point. How come? Is it simply that Florida’s a bit redder than other swing states this year? Or have seniors there been paying closer attention to the Medicare debate all along and find themselves ambivalent between Ryan’s plan and Obama’s $700 billion raiding of the program?”

It could be that Romney-Ryan have assured seniors that Medicare will be there for them, but in CO, VA, and OH, where the proportion of seniors is less and under 55, people are concerned if they are safe, too.

With all the emphasis on those over 55, maybe R&R need to tack towards emphasis on the benefits for those under 55 in order to move those numbers.

Dusty on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Rombo leads in North Carolina? I mean Virginia?

Bishop on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Polidummy …tell me which of the Polling companies pretty much nailed the national number in 2008.Let’s see how smart you are.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Karl on August 15, 2012 at 5:34 PM

I think in this case, indirectly, it will. Ryan’s selection has totally turned the narrative on its ear. It gives Romney the freedom to talk big issues and tie them to Obama’s record. Takes him off defense. I think it was a total gamechanger and has started a trend which will last and expand.

a capella on August 15, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Hoping and praying that Mandel takes the lead soon and holds onto it.

Of course, in the largest Ohio county…the bastion of all things liberal and corrupt…Brown will prevail. However, if the conservatives downstate come through, Mandel has a good chance of winning this.

GrannyDee on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Agree. I think he may attract a few of the disillusioned younger voters too.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Rombo leads in North Carolina? I mean Virginia?

Bishop on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Thank you Dr. Pepper Bishop!

22044 on August 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM

I’m loving Bowles right now. And I don’t think for a second that the Clintons haven’t had a heavy hand in his recent messaging.

Kataklysmic on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

This…!

Seven Percent Solution on August 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM

That $7 million bounce after the announcement didn’t hurt, either. I wonder if that came from small donors? If so, it was a LOT of small donors.

scalleywag on August 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM

romney is currently ahead by 4 points on rasmussen today too. its been slowly creeping up since the ryan announcement.

Jack_Burton on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Preference are starting to cascade. $hit just got real.

Rixon on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Seriously, choosing Ryan should help, at least a bit, in WI, OH, IN, FL (mom) and VA. Great choice. Rubio would have given us a boost in FL, but probably not as much as Ryan will in the midwest. Mitt did his homework.

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

.

According to Gallup’s tracker, Romney’s gotten almost no bounce from the Ryan pick — yet.

Yeah, but Gallup had Romney ahead anyway, just like Rasmussen. I wonder how this will effect the media polls like Fox and WaPo and CBS.

I do think Ryan will help Romney.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Rombo leads in North Carolina? I mean Virginia?

Bishop on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

He also leads in the 20th Century…

Seven Percent Solution on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Romney is up double digits with independents, if this holds he will win by 7-9 pts. R’s are far more enthusiastic than dems so I expect no worse than an equal split.

Ta111 on August 15, 2012 at 5:45 PM

OH, and for some good news. I just worked my first day in a full time job with benefits since August of 2009! I am so thrilled. I am a chef at a new facility for rehab.

By the way, the man who started the place, put up his own capital, took he own risks, and worked his a$$ off for several months while living in a trailer on the property. I guess he didn’t build that, President McMomJeansSandTraps

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I havent figured out why people pick just one polls results when this site already provides you an average of all polls.

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Because not all the polls are equal.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

He also leads in the 20th Century…

Seven Percent Solution on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

If only he could get the Indian C-Store owner/manager vote.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Rombo leads in North Carolina? I mean Virginia?

Bishop on August 15, 2012 at 5:39 PM

THat was in 1912.

davidk on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Congratulations!

22044 on August 15, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Yeah, but Gallup had Romney ahead anyway, just like Rasmussen. I wonder how this will effect the media polls like Fox and WaPo and CBS.

I do think Ryan will help Romney.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

The speech Mitt gave in Ohio coal country was a barn burner…

the Ohio GOP is a working populist GOP and Mitt made them nervous, by picking Ryan who is a Miami U guy and uses Math and seems a “business friendly” politician Mitt seems less Kerry like.

Probably help the down tickets as well.

Mitt needs to run Delphi ads reminding the delphi guys, “hey Barack’s guy Timmy screwed you”.

BOOM!

add in the Great Choom Raid on Medicare he has Ohio…

so Queen ACORN and Cleveland better get to work, but they better understand…you go much past your guys’ usual 1-3% “fair cheating” Mike DeWine is coming….

Ask MN voter fraudster what felony electioneering tastes like ACORN

harlekwin15 on August 15, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Because averaging isn’t a very good means of determining where things actually stand.

For example, lets say we had three polls that showed candidate B ahead by 1, but a fourth poll had candidate A ahead by 15. If you averaged those polls out, candidate A would be ahead by at least a small margin, but chances are that average would be completely and utterly wrong.

Its the same general principal at work on RCP. You’re better off looking for a smaller number of semi-accurate and consistent polls and averaging them manually. Thats what I’ve been doing since 2000, and I’ve got a fairly good track record of predicting election outcomes.

WolvenOne on August 15, 2012 at 5:48 PM

BTW dimwit. 99 percent of regular HAheads know about RCP.FO.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:35 PM

No doubt about that. I check it regularly…the top two polls have Romney ahead…the older polls are better for Obama. But then those older polls all had something hinky going on with their demographics too.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:49 PM

I havent figured out why people pick just one polls results when this site already provides you an average of all polls.

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Because not all the polls are equal.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Often they use in their aggregate number polls that show someone ahead by 10 plus points when none of the other polls are even close to 10. To think that those outliers are realistic and worthy of being averaged in with the others is pure silliness.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:49 PM

In June they had Romney up by 3 In Ohio and 4 in FL whatever that means.

purple bounces around a lot.

NextGen on August 15, 2012 at 5:47 PM

I wouldn’t bet the farm on it….but Ras and Gallup plus this is pretty good concern troll and ABR bane…..

keep using word of mouth and keep smiling.

Mitt needs HAPPY FRIENDLY GOP!

harlekwin15 on August 15, 2012 at 5:49 PM

the Purple Poll, which focuses on Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida

Frankly, I take Romney wins in all these four states as a given. Or as Joe Biden would say, in all three of these states.

VorDaj on August 15, 2012 at 5:49 PM

[the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM]

Congrats! May you continue to have the good luck our Jobs-in-Chief has blessed you with.

Dusty on August 15, 2012 at 5:49 PM

I havent figured out why people pick just one polls results when this site already provides you an average of all polls.

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

With an ave. of D+7 polling…garbage in/garbage out.

hillsoftx on August 15, 2012 at 5:50 PM

a capella on August 15, 2012 at 5:41 PM

I wrote about this in the Greenroom today. But I wouldn’t be as confident about as some.

Karl on August 15, 2012 at 5:50 PM

I love it when Allah spreads the poll peanut butter around. Gets the threads hoping up and down like kids at Christmas, or when their restrictions are announced.

Limerick on August 15, 2012 at 5:51 PM

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

That’s awesome, congrats. You must feel like a million bucks.

scalleywag on August 15, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Congrats! May you continue to have the good luck our Jobs-in-Chief has blessed you with.

Dusty on August 15, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Thanks! It is amazing that anyone can start a new business in this climate!

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:51 PM

OH, and for some good news. I just worked my first day in a full time job with benefits since August of 2009! I am so thrilled. I am a chef at a new facility for rehab.

By the way, the man who started the place, put up his own capital, took he own risks, and worked his a$$ off for several months while living in a trailer on the property. I guess he didn’t build that, President McMomJeansSandTraps

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Congrats!! Best wishes!!
Re: the polls: happy news but PRESS ON, Team RR!!

Khun Joe on August 15, 2012 at 5:51 PM

That’s awesome, congrats. You must feel like a million bucks.

scalleywag on August 15, 2012 at 5:51 PM

I appreciate it. It does feel great. It is nice to have benefits again after being lost in the wilderness for three years. I have a a feeling things will get much better for all of us next year!

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Thats what I’ve been doing since 2000, and I’ve got a fairly good track record of predicting election outcomes.

WolvenOne on August 15, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Don’t make us hold our breath…

hillsoftx on August 15, 2012 at 5:52 PM

As for Nate Silver.

Gallop showed a bounce, Rasmussen showed a bounce, Purple showed a bounce, etc etc etc. We’ve got more pollsters showing a bounce than those showing the opposite.

Call me crazy, but I’ll trust the ones showing a bounce if you ask me. Particularly since Gallop and Rassmussen have a much better track record than the vast majority of other pollsters.

WolvenOne on August 15, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Congrats!! Best wishes!!
Re: the polls: happy news but PRESS ON, Team RR!!

Khun Joe on August 15, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Thank you Joe.

By the way, for those of you who do not know, I am an old Hot Gas friend. c_f, part deaux (this time he is less offensive) ;)

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Jay Cost has been arguing for months that O’s in deep trouble, his small lead over Romney notwithstanding, because incumbents typically pull in a vote share on election day that’s roughly equal to their job approval rating.

Obama has no lead over Romney. Ras has Romney up by 4 and Gallup, even using registered voters rather than likely voters, has Romney up by 2. Don’t pay attention to the ding bat PEW and Quinidingpack propaganda.

VorDaj on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

harlekwin15 on August 15, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Obama may have won Indiana by half a point in 2008, but he is behind Romney by 16 according to the last poll done here. Coal has a lot to do with that. That is one thing that makes me wonder if Obama really is in good shape in Ohio..this part of the country really is coal country and not only do we need the mines up and running for our economies, it also determines our light bills.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

As R/R gain momentum and Obama’s numbers start declining, I wonder what manufactured crisis will befall this country in October.

Amjean on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Jay Cost has been arguing for months that O’s in deep trouble, his small lead over Romney notwithstanding, because incumbents typically pull in a vote share on election day that’s roughly equal to their job approval rating. Look again at his numbers in those last three states and think hard about that.

Unless Ozero figures out a way to kill Bin Laden again, or something equally dramatic, I just don’t see him turning those approval numbers right-side-up in the next three months.

Hayabusa on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Do the right things, and you will be rewarded. This Fla.voter will now give unsparingly. But…why do I always like the undercard, as opposed to the headliner(Well,except for R.R.)?

SMACKRUNNER on August 15, 2012 at 5:54 PM

I am a chef at a new facility for rehab.

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Tell Jesse Jackson Jr. we say howdy..

and congrats.

hillsoftx on August 15, 2012 at 5:55 PM

…..it also determines our light bills.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Yeah, I just don’t get it. Barry and Joe need coal to put in our stockings at Christmas.

Limerick on August 15, 2012 at 5:55 PM

OH, and for some good news. I just worked my first day in a full time job with benefits since August of 2009! I am so thrilled. I am a chef at a new facility for rehab.

By the way, the man who started the place, put up his own capital, took he own risks, and worked his a$$ off for several months while living in a trailer on the property. I guess he didn’t build that, President McMomJeansSandTraps

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Congrats and best wishes!!!

We’re all pulling for you.

GrannyDee on August 15, 2012 at 5:57 PM

On November 6, 2012 Obama is going to feel a lot like Custer did on June 25, 1876.

VorDaj on August 15, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Great news! The MSM, always looking to elevate the conversation to the things that REALLY matter to Americans is now focused on Ryan’s CLOTHES!

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/fashion/a-look-at-paul-ryans-fashion-sense.html?_r=2&ref=fashion

Here’s a hint, NYT… we LIKE guys who look like they can conduct business at the drop of a hat and are and have been getting down to business just before they hit the stage! UGH!

UnderstandingisPower on August 15, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Yeah, I just don’t get it. Barry and Joe need coal to put in our stockings at Christmas.

Limerick on August 15, 2012 at 5:55 PM

I don’t get it either..but then there are a lot things that I just sort sit back and scratch my head over…

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I have a a feeling things will get much better for all of us next year!

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:52 PM

As long as the knuckleheads stay focused and run a clean campaign, maybe we can blaze through the next couple of months and be on the road to recovery!

scalleywag on August 15, 2012 at 5:59 PM

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

That sounds really good.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:59 PM

among Rasmussen’s likely voter screens, mitt is modestly improving.

i know the lefty/trolls see this as an R shop..and they certainly won’t be reading anything like this anytime soon

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/public_relations/press_room/press_releases/the_rasmussen_reports_track_record

but look at rasmussen’s trial heats

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll/

and notice that barry spends a lot of time under 45 percent in the last several weeks.

r keller on August 15, 2012 at 5:59 PM

JUST LET BIDEN CONTINUE TO TALK.

GarandFan on August 15, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Sleeper Cell Activation? Never seen you post here before.

Del Dolemonte on August 15, 2012 at 6:01 PM

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Good for you.

But you’re right, he didn’t build that.

Del Dolemonte on August 15, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Erskine Bowles needs a remote car starter. Says Obama, not Ryan, responsible for failure of commission.

a capella on August 15, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Great title there poster.

slickwillie2001 on August 15, 2012 at 6:03 PM

The Meritocracy

Americans will rush into automatic weapons fire, disarm IEDs, suffer huge costs to help or free other people but they have been “schooled” to want the smartest guy in the room to be making the strategic decisions and calling the shots.

President Obama just missed the real undoing of the W love affair:

Bad decisions which made the public wonder about whether the orders were coming from a chess master, Checker player or a guy could totally goof up X and O’s.

The Green Energy decisions look like a tic tack toe pigeon.

IlikedAUH2O on August 15, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Karl on August 15, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Thanks. Good piece. I’m pretty optimistic and that isn’t my usual style. Part of it is I think more voters will be better informed this year than usual simply because more of them realize we’re edging closer to the cliff. More informed voters are bad for Obama. Mitt has to control the narrative, though, and let Ryan generate the enthusiasm.

a capella on August 15, 2012 at 6:06 PM

I don’t see how Romney isn’t winning in a landslide by now. If Obama ends up winning, it is truly over for this country.

Decoski on August 15, 2012 at 6:06 PM

it also determines our light bills.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

And don’t forget air conditioners…been a real hot summer here in north central Indiana.

esr1951 on August 15, 2012 at 6:07 PM

I don’t like it when the GOP engages in the same kind of specious arguments as the Dems, as I think they’re doing with Medicare.

But as a tactical measure, I am absolutely blown away. Who would have thought that Repubs would not only seek to defend but go on the out-and-out attack? It’s breathtaking. And if the Dems are all about “Ryan wants to kill your grandma,” as they are, it’s entirely right and fitting.

bobs1196 on August 15, 2012 at 6:08 PM

‘Folks, Where’s it Written We Cannot Lead the World in the 20th Century in Making Automobiles?’

- Vice-President Joe Biden, 15 August 2012

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/biden-folks-wheres-it-written-we-cant-lead-world-20th-century_650017.html

Mark your calendars for 11 October 2012. It will be the best popcorn-eating-telly-viewing that you will have all year. Hell, it could be the best telly-watching since PRESIDENT Franklin Delano Roosevelt went on television in October of 1929 to say “Folks, this is what happened (re: the stock market crash)…,” which I understand was only allowed to the elite few, who had special tin-foil hats and double-secret decoder rings.

Resist We Much on August 15, 2012 at 6:10 PM

It’s all over folks. Drudge just reported that Obama leads among … … … non-voters!

VorDaj on August 15, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I don’t see how Romney isn’t winning in a landslide by now. If Obama ends up winning, it is truly over for this country.

Decoski on August 15, 2012 at 6:06 PM

That’s what I’ve been thinking. They better win this, we have a LOT of work to do.

scalleywag on August 15, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Don’t make us hold our breath…

hillsoftx on August 15, 2012 at 5:52 PM

You’re going to be holding your breath. I never make a prediction before Mid October, because there is “always,” an October surprise of some sort or another.

Often its entirely irrelevant, sometimes it helps our side rather than hurting, but it always happens.

Right now, looking at the trends and the internals of polling, I’d say Romney has the advantage. It’s fairly hard to lose when independents are on your side, and the majority of polling seems to suggest they are.

Still, there will be no predictions until I have an idea how things are likely to look on election day.

WolvenOne on August 15, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Agree. I think he may attract a few of the disillusioned younger voters too.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:42 PM


I KNOW !!!!

I just did an automated poll in my swing state and classified myself as a black, male Democrat aged 18-29 who is very ikely to vote …

… and then selected the Republican candidates straight down the line.

;)

PolAgnostic on August 15, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Romney needs to go after Obama’s so-called ‘likeability”, that’s all he has at the moment, The ad questioning his actions as President in the way his campaign conducts itself hit that point.

Tater Salad on August 15, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Does anyone else get the feeling that the Obama Campaign is coming apart at the seems and the only thing holding it together is the media? At some point they will get tired of propping him up.

Tater Salad on August 15, 2012 at 6:19 PM

I havent figured out why people pick just one polls results when this site already provides you an average of all polls.

Politricks on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

..you do realize that there’s a mathematical flaw in averaging poll results, do you not?

The War Planner on August 15, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Does anyone else get the feeling that the Obama Campaign is coming apart at the seems and the only thing holding it together is the media? At some point they will get tired of propping him up.

Tater Salad on August 15, 2012 at 6:19 PM

..I do — and we are seeing fragments of this when Wolf Blitzer and some of the tools over on CNN and PMSNBC start doing the Lord’s work like taking apart the “felon” and “murder” hype in these commercials. Expect more of this as the claims, numbers, stats, and get more outrageously outrageous.

By October 15th, Obama will be a quivering mass of lime Jell-O — kinda like VPOTUS FLAT-LINE is now.

The War Planner on August 15, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Appear to move right and you pick up votes. If Clinton could learn it, maybe Romney can.

Valiant on August 15, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Comment pages: 1 2