Swing state poll: After picking Ryan, Romney now leads in Ohio, Virginia — and Florida

posted at 5:21 pm on August 15, 2012 by Allahpundit

Via Guy Benson, no self-respecting eeyore would leave a headline as rosy as the above unchecked, so here’s me checking it right off the bat. According to Gallup’s tracker, Romney’s gotten almost no bounce from the Ryan pick — yet. They’ve seen a bit of movement in the last two days, so there may be a “delayed bounce” coming, but little in the two days before that. In fact, here’s Nate Silver scanning across the dial:

So there you go. Now that my pessimistic conscience is clear, here’s some happier news from the Purple Poll, which focuses on Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. It stands to reason that Romney’s veep pick might make greater waves there because those voters are already paying closer attention to the election than voters nationwide are. So far, so good:

Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July.

However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in July…

Romney’s personal image appears to have improved following the announcement: 45% favorable, 48% unfavorable. While still net unfavorable, this represents a substantial improvement from July, when he was net -8. For the first time in the PurplePoll we tested Obama’s favorability (we have been testing job performance), and we found him to have a very similar rating as Romney: 47% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

Ryan’s the only guy on either ticket whose favorable rating is net positive right now, but don’t read much into that. VP candidates always start out with the benefit of the doubt and then see their numbers dip as the other side goes to work on them. More interesting is the fact that The One’s alleged “likability gap” with Romney is gone in these swing states. What a shame that the Purple Poll didn’t poll his favorables before; I’m dying to know if he’s been unpopular for months or whether the endless attacks on Romney are just now starting to blow up in his face.

Another likely contributing factor to his popularity being underwater? The trendline on the economy (August is the first column on the left):

Match that up with O’s job approval over the same time span:

Here’s how his job approval stands in Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, respectively:

Jay Cost has been arguing for months that O’s in deep trouble, his small lead over Romney notwithstanding, because incumbents typically pull in a vote share on election day that’s roughly equal to their job approval rating. Look again at his numbers in those last three states and think hard about that.

As for the Democrats’ Mediscare prospects against Ryan, here’s another verrry interesting result from the four states polled. Again, from left to right, it’s Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, respectively, answering the question, “Who is more likely to protect Medicare?” Obama’s on the first line, Romney on the second:

Obama leads by double digits in the first three states, but in Florida, which is supposed to be ground zero for Mediscaring, he’s up by just one thin point. How come? Is it simply that Florida’s a bit redder than other swing states this year? Or have seniors there been paying closer attention to the Medicare debate all along and find themselves ambivalent between Ryan’s plan and Obama’s $700 billion raiding of the program? If it’s the latter, that bodes awfully well for Romney’s strategy of taking the fight to O on this issue. In fact, here’s a deeper breakdown from Florida. Note the second data set:

Lots of messaging work to be done here by Romney and Ryan, obviously, if they want to shrink O’s Medicare lead across swing states generally, but they’re in better shape on Ryan’s budget than the media would lead you to believe. Whew.


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It’s all over folks. Drudge just reported that Obama leads among … … … non-voters!

VorDaj on August 15, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I saw that…unlikely unregistered…probably not American too.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 6:30 PM

..which I understand was only allowed to the elite few, who had special tin-foil hats and double-secret decoder rings.

Resist We Much on August 15, 2012 at 6:10 PM

..the only down-side to this mantra (not yours, the Biden == Potted Plant meme) would be like having the Pack play St Barnyard’s JHS and whipping them only by 75-0.

We/they’ll have Biden so brain-dead before that election, that the moderator will ask scorching Arc Light Raid questions of Ryan and just hold a mirror up to Slow Joe’s nose and, if it fogs, then the MSM will shriek, “See! He held his own! He held his own!”

The War Planner on August 15, 2012 at 6:31 PM

I saw that…unlikely unregistered…probably not American too.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 6:30 PM

..probably not on the correct side of the grass, either.

The War Planner on August 15, 2012 at 6:32 PM

I’m loving Bowles right now. And I don’t think for a second that the Clintons haven’t had a heavy hand in his recent messaging.

Kataklysmic on August 15, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Very good point. Bill may mouth the right words when his minders are around, but he has to hate what Obama is doing to his legacy. From illegally removing the work requirements for welfare on down.

MJBrutus on August 15, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Maybe the early flame out by Obama is a strategy. Go ahead and get the riots started before the election instead of after. That way he could impose martial law by November 6.

Four More Beers

mike_NC9 on August 15, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Instapundit has a photo up from Ryan’s appearance in Ohio — the line of people waiting to get in is very, very, very long.

People are stoked — and not about Obama or Slow Joe.

AZCoyote on August 15, 2012 at 6:38 PM

In defense of Paul Ryan in the lack of a bounce with the Gallup dailey tracking poll, its a 7 day poll. So there are still a few days in that poll pre-Ryan. Lets look at how it compares to the imfamous Palin bounce though…..

Palin was picked August 29th. On August 29th Obama lead McCain by 8 points. By September 6th, McCain lead by 3 points. And by September 7th it was McCain by 5 points. Thats a 13 point bounce. McCain held atleast a 2 point lead through September 14th, the day rumors broke Leyman Brothers would declare bankrupcy. Thats a atleast a 10 point bounce for 9 days straight. Thats a bounce. A big Beyonce bouncy bounce.

Paul Ryan was chosen on August 11th. Romney and Obama were tied in the Gallup tracking poll. Now Romney leads by 2 points. We won’t know the real Ryan bounce from Gallup until around August 20th. Until then its too early to tell. I tend to doubt it will be a 13 point bounce that sustains for 9 straight days at 10+ however.

Lets wait and see on Ryan though.

KMav on August 15, 2012 at 6:57 PM

You’re new here eh? Tricks? That fits.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 5:35 PM

No, CW McCall, you dumdum! Politricks is a troll from way back.

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:03 PM

The Dems in Cuyahoga Count are busy right now. A former county commissioner and party big-wig just got two decades plus in the iron bar, and the FBI is still working the crowd.

FirelandsO3 on August 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Wait…what a bounce?
And I thought the Dems were excited about Romney’s pick, a sure victory for them ……. pfft

angrymike on August 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Palin was picked August 29th. On August 29th Obama lead McCain by 8 points. By September 6th, McCain lead by 3 points. And by September 7th it was McCain by 5 points. Thats a 13 point bounce. McCain held atleast a 2 point lead through September 14th, the day rumors broke Leyman Brothers would declare bankrupcy. Thats a atleast a 10 point bounce for 9 days straight. Thats a bounce. A big Beyonce bouncy bounce.

Paul Ryan was chosen on August 11th. Romney and Obama were tied in the Gallup tracking poll. Now Romney leads by 2 points. We won’t know the real Ryan bounce from Gallup until around August 20th. Until then its too early to tell. I tend to doubt it will be a 13 point bounce that sustains for 9 straight days at 10+ however.

Lets wait and see on Ryan though.

KMav on August 15, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Remember though that bounce came after the convention and after Palin speaking to a national audience. Large bounces aren’t uncommon after conventions. It’s hard to compare the bounces at this point. Also in 2008 I believe Gallup used a 5-day rolling average, which had larger swings.

midgeorgian on August 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

If the polling remains close to the very end the thing to look out for are the same Obama voters-in places like Miami, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Denver, Las Vegas etal-being driven from poll to poll to poll to vote over and over and over again-just like the Dave Clark Five song. Suspicion is that this happened in Ohio in 2004 but bit wasn’t enough to overcome Bush’s 100,000+ vote lead.

MaiDee on August 15, 2012 at 7:10 PM

CW
Really, Mandel is tied with that little worm Brown, I didn’t think we had a chance to rid ourselves of that POS…………WooHoo………;-)

angrymike on August 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

the new aesthetic on August 15, 2012 at 5:53 PM

I saw you mention that the other night; being out of work can make for some tense and stressful times. Congrats to you on your new job!

MustLoveBlogs on August 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

And I thought the Dems were excited about Romney’s pick, a sure victory for them ……. pfft

angrymike on August 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Where have you been? They were begging us to give them Romney! Remember? obaka & BiteMe were gonna walk to re ‘lection. You forget our trolls begging?

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Steady as she goes, while firing canons from all sides.

SouthernGent on August 15, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Remember though that bounce came after the convention and after Palin speaking to a national audience. Large bounces aren’t uncommon after conventions. It’s hard to compare the bounces at this point. Also in 2008 I believe Gallup used a 5-day rolling average, which had larger swings.

midgeorgian on August 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Very good point about the convention impact on the polling. I should have mentioned that. She should probably only get about half credit for the bounce. The bounce did last an amazingly long time however, which makes me think it was maybe more Palin then the convention. Obama’s convention bounce only lasted all of a day or two, mostly because of the announcement of Palin.

KMav on August 15, 2012 at 7:27 PM

The War Planner on August 15, 2012 at 6:31 PM

My biggest fear is two-fold:

That Ryan will actually nod off waiting for Biden to make sense or finish talking.

That the media will try to say that Ryan was ‘mean’ to Biden and go for the sympathy ploy.

thatsafactjack on August 15, 2012 at 7:30 PM

CW
Really, Mandel is tied with that little worm Brown, I didn’t think we had a chance to rid ourselves of that POS…………WooHoo………;-)

angrymike on August 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Yep.
He’s a vet too.

CW on August 15, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

I DO remember that! They’re grunting a different tune now.

thatsafactjack on August 15, 2012 at 7:31 PM

I DO remember that! They’re grunting a different tune now.

thatsafactjack on August 15, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Rmoney gets it.

McLame didn’t.

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:35 PM

He’s a risk /sarc

Conservative4ev on August 15, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Lots of messaging work to be done here by Romney and Ryan, obviously, if they want to shrink O’s Medicare lead across swing states generally, but they’re in better shape on Ryan’s budget than the media would lead you to believe. Whew.

Which of course the enemy thought was their golden bullet in the selection of Ryan. I guess they should have figured out that their guy was already on track to loot $716B from the elderly just to pay for Obamacare. And these are not people who will be collecting in 10 years. These are people on Medicare now. Time for a re-deux of that shoving grannie off cliff ad to show a jug-eared pusher?

Happy Nomad on August 15, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I hate polls.

They’re gonna keep 0bama “even” with Romney until election day. That’s when they’ll lie and show Obama ahead in key States (even though he won’t be) at around 1pm to try and “persuade” the rest of the vote 0bama’s way.

ManWithNoName on August 15, 2012 at 7:44 PM

KMav on August 15, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Do you really that awful green background and the big bell brought Mccain the greater bounce? Palin was the star of the convention. Her speech was highest watched veep speech ever, almost equaling the other side’s presidential candidate’s speech. Admit it, Paul Ryan is a flop.

promachus on August 15, 2012 at 7:46 PM

“The bounce did last an amazingly long time however, which makes me think it was maybe more Palin then the convention.”

As someone who volunteered in WI, it was 100% Sarah Palin. We couldn’t drag someone into headquarters, then Sarah was picked and didn’t have room for everyone coming in. Literally night and day. Ryan was a good pick and generated a little enthusiasm. Palin was a great pick and literally would have won the election for old McCain if he hadn’t suspended his campaign.

gumbyandpokey on August 15, 2012 at 7:49 PM

“Paul Ryan is a flop”

No, he’s not a flop.

He just didn’t generate the dollars or polling bump that Palin did.

gumbyandpokey on August 15, 2012 at 7:50 PM

So, just what are you trying to say, gumbo?

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Not that I really give a flying f*ck.

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:52 PM

“So, just what are you trying to say, gumbo?”

IMO, Ryan was a good to very good pick and Palin was a great pick.

But I don’t think Romney will be suspending his campaign anytime soon.

gumbyandpokey on August 15, 2012 at 7:55 PM

But I don’t think Romney will be suspending his campaign anytime soon.

gumbyandpokey on August 15, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Rmoney is hardly a doddering old fool.

If not for that swine Suckabee, he’da been the nominee in ’08.

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Day 5 of the Lefts’………25 days to DEFINE RYAN.

Keep pounding that $716 Billion dollar THEFT by Obama of Medicare funds, Seniors are watching.

PappyD61 on August 15, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Of course, if ol’ Fred had been serious you’da heard

“For Paul Harvey, I’m Fred Thompson, President of these-here U Nited states”

Lanceman on August 15, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I saw that…unlikely unregistered…probably not American too.

Terrye on August 15, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Prolly rockin’ it among Somali Pirates…..

BigWyo on August 15, 2012 at 8:13 PM

I like “bounce.” But I like something even better: (Oh, this so trite! Such a political chiche, but…)sustainability. I don’t even want the election to be close. Mandate!

KCsecurity1976 on August 15, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Romney surges after picking a conservative as his VP.

Imagine what the race would look like if we actually nominated a conservative like Ryan for the top of the ticket?

18-1 on August 15, 2012 at 8:37 PM

As someone who volunteered in WI, it was 100% Sarah Palin

The Republican party hasn’t nominated a conservative for the top of its ticket since 1984.

You can see faint echoes with the Palin and Ryan pics of what the electoral landscape of a real conservative facing off against Obama would look like.

People have said that no one could have beaten Obama in 2008. Bullshit. McCain gave that election away.

Romney has been doing much better than McCain, though that isn’t saying much honestly, and it is his record that will haunt him even if he runs a flawless campaign. But Obama is beatable. Even if the State Media goes all in.

18-1 on August 15, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Th Ryan pick does not mean that Mitt will use Ryans budget precisly.

What it does is sends a message that Romney is serious about fixing the country’s problems.

gerrym51 on August 15, 2012 at 8:55 PM

“Paul Ryan is a flop”

No, he’s not a flop.

He just didn’t generate the dollars or polling bump that Palin did.

gumbyandpokey on August 15, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Did I hear “Wop” in there somewheres???//

Oh wait…yer that concern F03ktard….

nevermind…

BigWyo on August 15, 2012 at 9:06 PM

What it does is sends a message that Romney is serious about fixing the country’s problems.

It means that he sees the need to run with a serious conservative. It might indicate that he plans to seriously reform the government, and it might, more likely, indicate merely that he sees this as the best way to win.

It is a good sign, no doubt, but Romney is running against a very long record.

18-1 on August 15, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Scarborough, Frum, ddrintn, renalin and yes, Bmore hardest hit.

Basilsbest on August 15, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Perhaps this year will set aside the myth of Nate Silver. He’s never been any more accurate than the pack, except for calling the Democratic waves of ’06 and ’08. Other than that, he’s been behind the curve.

Adjoran on August 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Guys, There is no bounce so stop the spinning.

Butdon’t worry because after Biden and his gaffes they better get a bounce or the country is lost.

By the way that Ryan plan is a slow plan to grow government but don’t let that get in the way.

After all you people put a flip-flopping liar at the top of the ticket.

oldyeller on August 16, 2012 at 1:31 AM

I don’t like it when the GOP engages in the same kind of specious arguments as the Dems, as I think they’re doing with Medicare.

But as a tactical measure, I am absolutely blown away. Who would have thought that Repubs would not only seek to defend but go on the out-and-out attack? It’s breathtaking. And if the Dems are all about “Ryan wants to kill your grandma,” as they are, it’s entirely right and fitting.

bobs1196 on August 15, 2012 at 6:08 PM

I domt give a damn about the facts. The Republicans need to play the mediacare game 24 / 7 and jam it down the Donks throats until they choke to death on it.

Its called three or four decades worth of overdue Karma.

rickyricardo on August 16, 2012 at 5:29 AM

Oldyeller – I don’t disagree that Ryan is more moderate than people think – but what I do think is that he is conservative in his outlook that we need to be adults here and try and tackle this thing – that is a very conservative outlook – especially when the opposition is acting teenagers, and very ill-mannered ones at that.

Keep working this – we get a serious ticket, Ryan is serious, and even Mitt is serious about fixing things, whether we agree with him or not. Then work to purge the GOP of representatives and senators who don’t realize the game is up. That got rid of Lugar who had lived past his usefulness. It woke up Hatch. The tea Party is getting better at getting better candidates. Keep pushing, we are making progress.

Zomcon JEM on August 16, 2012 at 10:28 AM

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