Too good to check: Obama and Romney tied in Northern Virginia?

posted at 2:01 pm on August 10, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

All right, I’m going anti-Eyeore with this poll result. I meant to post it yesterday, but figured you might enjoy it more today as a counterpoint to the Fox and CNN polls, which look none too good for Romney.

A local news radio station in Washington, D.C., WTOP, conducted its own poll of D.C., Maryland, and Northern Virginia. D.C.’s and Maryland’s overwhelmingly pro-Obama results are unsurprising and unimportant, but then there’s this:

Voters in Northern Virginia are almost evenly split between President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney, according to the WTOP Beltway Poll conducted by Heart+Mind Strategies.

Forty-eight percent of residents support Obama while 46 percent would vote for Romney. The difference falls easily within the poll’s 4.17 percent margin of error.

Say wha? Northern Virginia has elected Rep. Jim “I’m going to earmark the shi[nola] out of (the Appropriations Committee)” Moran in every election since 1990. The man is a quintessential Beltway liberal who has an entire section dedicated to physical assaults on his Wikipedia page. It is this area of the state that will give Obama his win, if he can get it. Somewhere, a Moran legislative assistant is at work again with the putty knife and the hand sander just upon the suggestion of this bad news.

But here in Northern Virginia, Mitt Romney and President Obama are in a statistical dead heat? The sample is rather small, so take that into account, but WTOP is no fly-by-night news organization.

Nate Cohn of The New Republic registers his skepticism for two such partial-state polls this week:

There were also two odd sub-state polls: AARP found Romney up two among Floridians over age 50 and a WTOP poll found Obama up by just 2 points in northern Virignia. I’ve never heard of the latter poll and it’s wildly inconsistent with Obama’s narrow statewide lead, since Obama won northern Virginia by twenty points in 2008 (although that depends on the definition of northern Virginia). On the other hand, a close race among Floridians over 50 is quite consistent with the close statewide race shown by most polling firms.

The Real Clear Politics average for the state of Virginia has Obama up 3.2, and most of that margin should be coming from Northern Virginia. Popular Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell won the region with 53 percent in an off-year election in 2009, so the it’s not totally intractable. Eh, I’m skeptical, too, but consider it your spoonful of sugar, along with Jay Cost’s case for why this race is Romney’s to win.

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Don’t tell Allah this, he might hang himself.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 10, 2012 at 2:03 PM

VA going back to red…OK, too early…

22044 on August 10, 2012 at 2:03 PM

The Real Clear Politics average for the state of Virginia has Obama up 3.2, and most of that margin should be coming from Northern Virginia.

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how much Obama needs to win that region by to have a good shot at holding onto Virginia?

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Popular Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell won the region with 53 percent in an off-year election in 2009, so the it’s not totally intractable.

Buyers remorse for the won was just getting ramped up in 2009. It’s grown exponentially since then.

Lost in Jersey on August 10, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Uh, in a country that’s pretty much still 50-50 I find it hard to believe NoVa is swinging Romney.

The residents either work for Big Government or used to work for Big Government. For goodness Sake Colon Powerll lives there.

MKH must be some kind of anomaly.

CorporatePiggy on August 10, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Don’t tell Allah this, he might hang himself.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 10, 2012 at 2:03 PM

This guy Allahpundit lacks the most basic understanding of statistics and arthimetic.

What is amazing is the number of fools on our side who are easily distressed by the very inaccurate media polls rather than focus on the much more accurate Daily Tracking Poll of Rasmussen and to a lesser degree the Daily Tracking poll of Gallup.

Each of Rasmussen and Gallup polls around 30,000 people per month, Rasmussen polls the very reliable likely voters and Gallup poll the less reliable registered voters. On the other hand a media poll by a media organization, poll only 1,000 people per month, they insanely oversample democrats, and they use registered voters.

Any person with an IQ over 90 would easily go with the much accurate poll that poll 30,000 people per month (Rasmussen and Gallup) versus the much less accurate media poll that poll 1,000 people per month.

I am finding out that many people on this forum, including the main writers (such as Allahpundit) lack the most basic understanding of simple statistics and arithmetic…

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Rass has Mit up 2 in Iowa.

sheikh of thornton on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Obama still up in VA. Talk about scouring for a shred of hope in the failed Romney campaign! I’m actually starting to feel sorry for some of you guys.

Just a little, though.

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Folks, this election is won or lost on a simple metric:

“How many WHITE VOTERS who voted for Obama in 2008 are going to leave him in 2012 and stay home or vote for Romney”

The Romney Welfare ad helps a lot in getting more White Voters who voted for Obama in 2008 to either stay home or vote for Romney in 2012.

Per my prediction model that I made for the battleground states below are the percentage of Whites Voters who voted for Obama in 2008 that need to vote for Romney in 2012 to make Romney win these states:

Florida (10% White voters shift), Ohio (11% White voters shift), Viriginia (13% White voters shift), North Carolina (7% White voters shift), Indiana (3% White voters shift), Colorado (13% White voters shift), Iowa (10% White voters shift), New Hampshire (13% White voters shift), Minnesotta (15% White voters shift)

Based on the above and with the guaranteed Republican States Romney would win 295 Electoral Vote and would win the elections.

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

The bad thing about Hot Air’s go-to “the polls are biased!” is that you can’t cheer a good poll. After all, they are biased and not to be trusted.

Alinsky +1!

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 2:11 PM

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

What are you in the middle of politically? Erich Honecker and Josef Stalin?

CorporatePiggy on August 10, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Jim Moran has already punched a wall over this.

Thank Pelosi for BHO’s OCare, otherwise we’d have to take up a collection for Moran’s hand treatment.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 10, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Is Virginia the state that The Ulsterman was referring to:

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/07/31/white-house-insider-how-mitt-romney-mentally-castrated-the-obama-campaign/

“So this kind of data comes into the campaign, right? They give it a look-over…decide it has to be….somethin’ off. A mistake in the poll. Those numbers are just too favorable to Romney. He’s doing well but these internals are saying he is OWNING Obama in this state – a state that went for Obama back in ’08. Now normally you take that kind of poll with a big grain a salt…and you…you move on. Come back to it later. Got sh-t to do, right?

Not these Romney boys. They order up a new poll. Like…it’s within 48 hours. Do it again they say. Do it right. Increase the group. Poll more voters. Cross check the data and cross check it again. Be god-amn thorough this time.

Now that costs money – but that’s the kind of money…that’s how they are doin’ their spending. Smart. Focused. No waste. They want facts. They want real results….like a business…like a well run business. That has been the Romney campaign so far. When mistakes are made they quickly react…they refocus…they move on. Just like a business.

UM: The second poll – so they ran another poll? From a larger sample group?

WHI: Right – exactly. Spent a bit more money – they want to know EXACTLY where they are in this state. If they take this state early on Election Night – that could be it for Obama. One and done. It’s a swing state you see…but Romney ain’t supposed to win it. So yeah – they order up a second poll. Get the group to do it fast – that takes more money. But they spend it – willing to spend it to be certain of getting real information. That’s how it’s done – I respect that. Love a team that works like that. Let me know where we are at – where we really sit with these people…then let me take it from there. Get the f-ck outta my way and let me take it from there.

UM: And what did that second poll show?

WHI: (Both hands slap down onto their knees and WHI leans well forward in their seat. Their eyes widened and that BIG smile broke out across their face again)

…Pure gold man. That second poll…sh-t…it came out even better for Romney. It bumped him another two points overall…picked up among women…more Independents…even a percentage among Democrats as a whole. And that poll was done right – it was the real deal. We ain’t talking some CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC/Gallup bullsh-t here. It was boots on the ground, diggin’ in the dirt…the real deal data that is the lifeblood of a campaign. And it came back aces for Mitt Romney. In a state he ain’t supposed to be winning!”

Long Legged MacDaddy on August 10, 2012 at 2:13 PM

All right, I’m going anti-Eyeore with this poll result.

you know that means that you’re going Pooh, right?

JK!

ted c on August 10, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Not enough tax money or borrowing power to buy enough votes to con the American people into serfdom.

So, what do the Democrats do?

Well after LBJ, Carter, Clinton, with attempts by Al Gore and John Kerry etal they have the bottom of the pork barrell of liberal found and known.

B. Obama.

What would you expect that more people self-destruct their lives just so B. Obama can give rambling talks about how bright his glow is??

Facts Count Up.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 10, 2012 at 2:13 PM

“This poll is meaningless! Why just yesterday a CNN poll taken in their boardroom showed overwhelming support for the Dog Eater! HAHAHAHAHA….HAHAHAHAHA….*cough cough*..HAHAHAHAHAHA!”

-inthemiddle

Bishop on August 10, 2012 at 2:14 PM

GOV Creigh Deeds needs to get out there and get his peeps in order….er, wait a sec…

ted c on August 10, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I am finding out that many people on this forum, including the main writers (such as Allahpundit) lack the most basic understanding of simple statistics and arithmetic…

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Well you have to cut everyone some slack. First of all, it’s the doldrums of August. We’re bored out of our minds and are desperate to dissect any information that comes our way. That’s why we go “nucular” over a stupid gaffe by Andrea Saul that 99.9% of the population has forgotten about 48 hours later(if they ever even knew about it).

Secondly, when you see poll after poll showing Obama up big over Romney, you can understand people getting a little antsy. The key is to see if there are any similarities between the polls that explain how they each got to the same result. What’s important to note is that A)they’re mostly done by media outlets that can more charitably be described as sympathetic to the Obama regime, B)don’t poll likely voters, and C)survey Dems over Republicans by almost laughable margins.

Everyone will soon settle down when the VP pick is announced(well, unless it’s T-Paw or Portman), the convention gets underway, and the real campaign goes into full swing.

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Talk about scouring for a shred of hope in the failed Romney campaign!

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

… he says, three months out from the election.

Washington Nearsider on August 10, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Gallup: Obama at 51% Job Disapproval
—Ace

Yeah, Obama’s got this in the bag. A mere majority of the public is dissatisfied with his job performance, so.

43% approve. This 43% was discovered by the Curiosity probe, on Mars.

ted c on August 10, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how much Obama needs to win that region by to have a good shot at holding onto Virginia?

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:04 PM

If he’s winning NOVA with anywhere b/w 56%-60+%, Romney’s in trouble. Below that, Romney’s got a good shot….he’s gotta keep the margin in Fairfax as close as possible while also hopefully winning Loudoun and the counties outside the Beltway.

changer1701 on August 10, 2012 at 2:18 PM

you know that means that you’re going Pooh, right?

JK!

ted c on August 10, 2012 at 2:13 PM

ugh. You are now ineligible for Post-of-the-Day™ for one week.

Lost in Jersey on August 10, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I have to discount this poll. It does not oversample democrats by at least 9 points so it can’t be accurate.

Just ask Nate Silver who claimed just today that, “CNN has no partisan lean in their polling…” I’m sorry but ROFLMAO.

mitchellvii on August 10, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I believe this is one good reason Romney may pick McDonnell as his running mate.

mitchellvii on August 10, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Put away the champagne until the night of Nov. 6.

Schadenfreude on August 10, 2012 at 2:21 PM

FWIW, our oldest daughter just moved up to that area for a job, and has already registered to vote in the upcoming election. She’s a Conservative through-and-through, and plans to vote Republican in November.

She actually lives in the county that many expect might be the one to determine the outcome of the whole shootin’ match….

TeresainFortWorth on August 10, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Well you have to cut everyone some slack. First of all, it’s the doldrums of August. We’re bored out of our minds and are desperate to dissect any information that comes our way. That’s why we go “nucular” over a stupid gaffe by Andrea Saul that 99.9% of the population has forgotten about 48 hours later(if they ever even knew about it).

Secondly, when you see poll after poll showing Obama up big over Romney, you can understand people getting a little antsy. The key is to see if there are any similarities between the polls that explain how they each got to the same result. What’s important to note is that A)they’re mostly done by media outlets that can more charitably be described as sympathetic to the Obama regime, B)don’t poll likely voters, and C)survey Dems over Republicans by almost laughable margins.

Everyone will soon settle down when the VP pick is announced(well, unless it’s T-Paw or Portman), the convention gets underway, and the real campaign goes into full swing.

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:15 PM

My point is when we have two Daily Tracking polls Rasmussen and Gallup that are vastly more accurate than the media polls junk for the undisputable reasons I mentioned in the previous post why so many on our side get all agitated and frantic by these very inaccurate media polls? Why does not Hot Air run threads about the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll and Gallup Daily tracking poll but rather only run threads based on these laughable media polls?

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Some days I wish the concept of polling had never been invented . . .

natasha333 on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Put away the champagne until the night of Nov. 6.

Schadenfreude on August 10, 2012 at 2:21 PM

I’m gonna have a Chick-Fil-A milkshake.

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Gallup: Obama at 51% Job Disapproval
—Ace

Yeah, Obama’s got this in the bag. A mere majority of the public is dissatisfied with his job performance, so.

43% approve. This 43% was discovered by the Curiosity probe, on Mars.

ted c on August 10, 2012 at 2:16 PM

I thought Drudge would put up a siren when I saw this right after Gallup posted it. It’s a six point swing in one day. Gallup has a three day rolling average so there may have been an even bigger hit for O. Doesn’t everyone agree that favorability is the only thing he has going for him in this race? Anyone think this has anything to do with the cancer ad? I’m really shocked that this isn’t being discussed at every conservative site. It seems like a pretty significant change. He will not win the elction wit 43/51 favorability on Gallup. You can carve that in stone.

Long Legged MacDaddy on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Fox and CNN polls, which look none too good for Romney

When you can show me a Presidential election with a D+9 advantage in the electorate, then I will give a D+9 poll sample some credibility. 2008 was the record for the last 150 years with D+7.

Who believes there will be a bigger Democratic wave this year than in 2008? Bueller? Bueller?

Adjoran on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

What are you in the middle of politically? Erich Honecker and Josef Stalin?

CorporatePiggy on August 10, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Which would put him/her/it as Bolesław Bierut, the first (and worst) of the Polish Communist strongmen.

Steve Eggleston on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Just out of curiosity, anyone know how much Obama needs to win that region by to have a good shot at holding onto Virginia?

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:04 PM

A guess would be a couple of cemeteries full of late filing Democratic voters….

Don L on August 10, 2012 at 2:24 PM

There are a lot of congressional districts in NoVA. Moran’s is Alexandria, which is overwhelmingly Dem (though I have had the pleasure to be one of the handful of people to vote against him). The suburbs are where the swing voters are, and if Romney can run even in NoVA overall, he’s going to win VA.

besser tot als rot on August 10, 2012 at 2:24 PM

you know who we can thank for this

Dr Pepper

Slade73 on August 10, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Why does not Hot Air run threads about the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll and Gallup Daily tracking poll but rather only run threads based on these laughable media polls?

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Probably because Ras and Gallup are daily. To devote a thread every day would get tiresome. Whereas CNN, FOXNews, NBC, NYT, etc. are at most once a week and seem like a bigger deal.

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:24 PM

MK Ham, show some respect!

It’s Jim “I show up drunk to Townhall Meetings” Moran

Czar of Defenestration on August 10, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Thanks MKH. I’ll file this one in my Good News Of The Day file. It doesn’t have a lot in it right now.

TarheelBen on August 10, 2012 at 2:25 PM

When you can show me a Presidential election with a D+9 advantage in the electorate, then I will give a D+9 poll sample some credibility. 2008 was the record for the last 150 years with D+7.

Who believes there will be a bigger Democratic wave this year than in 2008? Bueller? Bueller?

Adjoran on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

More important than the top-line numbers or the partisan breakdowns was the tally for independent voters, which, if true, would be disastrous for Romney.

besser tot als rot on August 10, 2012 at 2:25 PM

If he’s winning NOVA with anywhere b/w 56%-60+%, Romney’s in trouble. Below that, Romney’s got a good shot….he’s gotta keep the margin in Fairfax as close as possible while also hopefully winning Loudoun and the counties outside the Beltway.

changer1701 on August 10, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Per an election prediction model that I made if 13% of the Whites voters who voted for Obama in 2008 in Virginia switch and vote for Romney in 2012 then Romney would win Virginia.

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Jim Moran has already punched a wall over this.

There wasn’t a 10 year old black kid or a priest handy?

I lived in Arlington for a decade. Unless something’s changed there drastically, ain’t no way they’re tied.

NoDonkey on August 10, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Any person with an IQ over 90 would easily go with the much accurate poll that poll 30,000 people per month (Rasmussen and Gallup) versus the much less accurate media poll that poll 1,000 people per month.

I am finding out that many people on this forum, including the main writers (such as Allahpundit) lack the most basic understanding of simple statistics and arithmetic…

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:07 PM

..well put. I would make an exception in the case of Ed Morrissey. He produces write-ups of his delicious excursions in the the poll numbers, exposing the almost embarrassing D-skews.

Sadly, the folly here and elsewhere is compounded by citing the mathematically-challenged RCP average of polls. Without weighting and accounting for these D+9 skews, Raz and Gallup are cast in amongst these “surveys of the Obama campaign staff workers” and rendered useless.

The War Planner on August 10, 2012 at 2:27 PM

steebo77′s Daily Swing State Report:

State / Rolling Average / Most Recent Poll
Indiana / Romney + 15.6% / July
Georgia / Romney + 11.3% / July
Arizona / Romney + 8.1% / July
Missouri / Romney + 6.5% / July
North Carolina / Romney + 1.6% / August
Iowa / Romney +0.4% / August
Florida / Romney -0.2% / July
Colorado / Romney -1.0% / August
Virginia / Romney -1.5% / August
National / Romney -2.8% / August
Ohio / Romney -2.9% / July
Nevada / Romney -3.2% / July
Michigan / Romney -3.7% / July
New Hampshire / Romney -3.7% / July
Wisconsin / Romney -3.9% / August
Oregon / Romney -5.2% / July
Pennsylvania / Romney -6.6% / July
New Mexico / Romney -8.7% / July
Minnesota / Romney -8.8% / July
Connecticut / Romney -9.2% / July
Maine / Romney -9.9% / July
Washington / Romney -10.5% / August
New Jersey / Romney -11.8% / July

steebo77 on August 10, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Which would put him/her/it as Bolesław Bierut, the first (and worst) of the Polish Communist strongmen.

Steve Eggleston on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Heh – that fits very well.

CorporatePiggy on August 10, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Patrick Murray, a retired Army colonel, is challenging Jim Moran.
That Moran could be elected dog catcher, let alone to Congress, boggles the mind. There is a reason that people around northern VA call him moron.

Angineer on August 10, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Whereas CNN, FOXNews, NBC, NYT, etc. are at most once a week and seem like a bigger deal.

Doughboy on August 10, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Actually each of these media organization poll once a month, they only poll at 1,000 people…but yes per week you will see one or two polls of from one or two of these media organizations… I am upset is that Hot Air is ignoring the vastly more accurate Rasmussen and Gallup Daily tracking polls that poll each around 30,000 people a month and use a much more accurate party ID breakdown but rather Hot Air focuses on the much less accurate media organization poll where each organization polls once a month, poll only 1,000 people, and insanely oversample democrats in the vast majority of cases…

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Obama still up in VA. Talk about scouring for a shred of hope in the failed Romney campaign! I’m actually starting to feel sorry for some of you guys.

Just a little, though.

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

obama running “scrapping bottom” ads : 78 million dollars…obama cutting defense budget : 55 billion dollars…. forcing obama to fight for the state he won by 20 ? priceless !

runner on August 10, 2012 at 2:31 PM

I’m sorry. I’m having trouble understanding why the liberals are posting here at all.

I’ve read their posts.

They aren’t trying to persuade anyone over to their point of view. They seem intent of insisting that their preferred candidate will win, but they offer no reason WHY they believe this to be true…. other than a cult of personality type preference for that candidate.

Obama has offered no plausible explanation for his failings as president this last term. He simply insists that ‘its hard’ and ‘change takes time’. Both statements counter to his campaign promises.

Obama has offered virtually NO plan for the next four years. He has simply said he would ‘finish what we started’. Whatever that was meant to be, it has obviously failed to meet the nation’s best interest, to revive the economy or produce jobs. AS THE SITTING PRESIDENT, IT IS OBAMA’S JOB TO PROVIDE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS AND A PRECISE PLAN FOR THE COURSE OF THE NATION.

The wars are still raging. Gitmo is still operating at capacity. The border is wide open and we still have rampant illegal immigration. 100 million Americans are on federal welfare and this figure does NOT include state and local welfare programs. 43% of all immigrants, legal or illegal, who have been in this nation for 20 years or more…are on welfare. The U-6 unemployment number stands at about 17%. U-3 unemployment is at about 8.3% and has been above 8% for the last 42 months.

Romney is still the PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE and, as such, he hasn’t really begun to take the battle to Obama. Once Romney has been confirmed as the OFFICIAL NOMINEE, he will have access to the GENERAL ELECTION FUNDS, and he will have finished the ticket with his VP choice. THEN Romney and his VP will take the battle to Obama and force him to try and justify his abysmal record to the American people.

I’m looking forward to September, which will be the prelude to the battle… and then October, which will be the real fireworks.

thatsafactjack on August 10, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Say wha? Northern Virginia has elected Rep. Jim “I’m going to earmark the shi[nola] out of (the Appropriations Committee)” Moran in every election since 1990.

\

My filthy corrupt Congressman. I’m skeptical that true Northern Virginia is this close but there is the fact that this administration has really attacked federal workers and contractors over the past four years and that is definitely going to leave a mark. You can only freeze salaries and demonize people for so long before even the most dense of liberal Democrats start getting a clue.

Anecdotelly, I gotta say I’ve seen Romney bumper stickers and yard signs here in Arlington. That, my friends, is living life on the edge if you have a nice car or care about your home. I’m not that brave. And as to Jim Moron all I can say is GO COL PATRICK MURRAY- Let’s get that corrupt bastard who hits children out of office!

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Watch Louden (DC suburbs) and Henrico (Richmond suburbs) counties for Virginia.

SouthernGent on August 10, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Do Inthemiddle, Gumbyandpokey and Toldyaso all live together in the same basement?

LASue on August 10, 2012 at 2:36 PM

I’m sorry. I’m having trouble understanding why the liberals are posting here at all.

thatsafactjack on August 10, 2012 at 2:33 PM

They’ve been told to. Just like the Ron Paul supporters. Their intent is to annoy, pester, and foment discontent against the likely supporters of the GOP candidate.

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Heh – that fits very well.

CorporatePiggy on August 10, 2012 at 2:29 PM

I knew the Polish half of me would come in handy one day :-)

Steve Eggleston on August 10, 2012 at 2:36 PM

..well put. I would make an exception in the case of Ed Morrissey. He produces write-ups of his delicious excursions in the the poll numbers, exposing the almost embarrassing D-skews.

Sadly, the folly here and elsewhere is compounded by citing the mathematically-challenged RCP average of polls. Without weighting and accounting for these D+9 skews, Raz and Gallup are cast in amongst these “surveys of the Obama campaign staff workers” and rendered useless.

The War Planner on August 10, 2012 at 2:27 PM

RCP really sucks in the polls publications… First they must be honest and publish the party ID breakdown (% R, % D, % I) next to each poll they publish and next to the average poll they publish… Second they need to publish a separate tab for the Daily tracking polls of Rasmussen and Gallup so these two much accurate polls would not be deluded by the much less accurate media polls…
I hope that someone who knows the RCP managers can suggest the above to them and hopefully they can implement it…

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:37 PM

thatsafactjack on August 10, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Well, Obama says he wants to grow the economy “from the middle out” – whatever the hell that means.

TarheelBen on August 10, 2012 at 2:38 PM

To me this poll is the equivalent of the encouraging oral arguments in the healthcare force and tax case. Just getting us all blown up before we get popped.

earlgrey133 on August 10, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Actually, this doesn’t sound that far off, and I’ll explain why.

Earlier this week there was a Quin/NYT/CBS poll in Virginia, and its topline number stated that Obama was ahead by 4%.

That may seem bad, but the demographic skew in the poll was all sorts of bizarre at…

Independent 40%
Democrat 30%
Republican 23%

Oddly, they probably aren’t that far off on the number of democrats they asked, but its hard to believe that a state dominated by Republicans until 2008 would only be 23% Republican. There just hasn’t been enough time for the demographics to shift THAT drastically.

Thing is, this poll which was quite sizable, also found Romney leading Obama among independents by 7%. As a basic rule of thumb, if your own party isn’t defecting and you’re winning independents by a healthy margin, it’s pretty hard to actually lose.

So, if you adjust these numbers slightly, add even a few percent to the Republican side and suddenly Romney would be ahead, even if its at the expense of independents.

I mean, winning independents is nice, but you can safely assume that Romney is winning 90%+ of Republicans, so they’d go a lot further.

Incidentally, does anybody have a good idea what the demographic ratio SHOULD be for Virginia?

WolvenOne on August 10, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Watch Louden (DC suburbs) and Henrico (Richmond suburbs) counties for Virginia.

SouthernGent on August 10, 2012 at 2:35 PM

LOUDOUN County. But I would argue the real bellweather for Northern Virginia is not Loudoun County but Fairfax County which has become increasingly liberal thanks to a bunch of carpetbaggers and illegals. If Romney has a strong showing in a county divided by Jim Moron and Gerry “ratboy” Connolly then there may be something to the WTOP polls.

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:40 PM

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America ‘s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, “the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.”
~ Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006

Schadenfreude on August 10, 2012 at 2:40 PM

I haven’t paid much attention to any (liberal) media outlets…polls or news stories (read spin)…for years.

Why should I care what their views/polls are? Their views are diametrically opposed to my views. We’ve already stopped buying the publications, e.g., dying newspapers and weeklies like Newsweek and Time.

It’s time that conservatives stop giving any credence to the liberal media since they have only demonstrated that they have chosen sides…and it isn’t ours. They will do anything so that their preferred candidates are given the kid glove treatment while smacking around the conservatives.

Angineer on August 10, 2012 at 2:41 PM

I really hate it when pundits cite the Real Clear Average.
An average is worthless if it’s mostly made up of polls with bad sampling and questionable weighting.

DRayRaven on August 10, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Thanks for the answer. If that really is the case… they’re failing miserably. They’re sort of amusing really, in their own little way, and it provides and excellent insight into just how distressed the Democrats are at any given point in the campaign.

thatsafactjack on August 10, 2012 at 2:43 PM

steebo77 on August 10, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Good stuff, thanks for the numbers.

Doomberg on August 10, 2012 at 2:46 PM

I don’t find this surprising at all. 1) McDonnell won the region in 2009, as MKH noted. 2) My liberal congressman, Gerry Connolly, is in a tight race and voted for extension of ALL the current tax rates — he didn’t feel safe voting with his boss on this big issue. 3) I see a lot of anecdotal support for Romney where I live in Fairfax County. Sure, Obama will win Moran’s district, but Northern Virginia is much more than Alexandria and Arlington.

SD on August 10, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The Northern Virginia sample size is only 200, which leaves a heck of a margin for error in either direction. If Romney was really tied in Northern Virginia, statewide polls would be showing him with a 10 point lead. But they aren’t.

AngusMc on August 10, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Doesn’t everyone agree that favorability is the only thing he has going for him in this race?

Long Legged MacDaddy on August 10, 2012 at 2:23 PM

So they tell us.

Go RBNY on August 10, 2012 at 2:49 PM

I really hate it when pundits cite the Real Clear Average.
An average is worthless if it’s mostly made up of polls with bad sampling and questionable weighting.

DRayRaven on August 10, 2012 at 2:43 PM

And yet it correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of the 50 states in 2008.

AngusMc on August 10, 2012 at 2:50 PM

TarheelBen on August 10, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Yes… that’s interesting, isn’t it? I mean, given that his new Obamatax is going to impact the middle class the hardest, taking a full $500B of his mandated $650B in ‘new revenues’ from the middle class in the form of a dozen new taxes.

Its literally the largest single tax increase in history and its coming right out of the backs of the middle class.

Add that to the $675B being carved out of the backs of the seniors and disabled with his cuts to Medicare and it looks to me like the middle class, seniors and disabled are bleeding through the eyes to pay for his ‘signature achievement’, essentially to provide ‘comprehensive health care’ and ‘preventative care’ for 30 million able bodied, working age, adults.

thatsafactjack on August 10, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Northern Va. a fact free zone.

APACHEWHOKNOWS on August 10, 2012 at 2:51 PM

A lot of defense contractors here in Northern Virginia (you can’t throw a rock without hitting one) so I wonder if the proposed defense cuts, which could happen if Obama is re-elected, effect the polling.

heretic on August 10, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Uh, in a country that’s pretty much still 50-50 I find it hard to believe NoVa is swinging Romney.

The residents either work for Big Government or used to work for Big Government. For goodness Sake Colon Powerll lives there.

MKH must be some kind of anomaly.

CorporatePiggy on August 10, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I live in NoVa. I doubt it’s going to Romney, from what I’ve seen.

That said, there’s another factor to consider – enthusiasm of the base. In NoVa, there’s a LOT less enthusiasm for Obama this time around, which in the end, may significantly hurt him in the state and allow Romney to pull off the win in the state thanks to lower turnout amongst the liberals.

Also, how cute. I actually am one of those “Big Government” workers that you so casually malign.

I’m voting for Romney, BTW.

Vyce on August 10, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Sure, Obama will win Moran’s district, but Northern Virginia is much more than Alexandria and Arlington.

SD on August 10, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Go ahead and rub it in. I would point out, however, that Moron’s district is more than Alexandria and Arlington. It wraps around “ratboy’s” district to pick up the hippies living in Reston as well.

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Also, how cute. I actually am one of those “Big Government” workers that you so casually malign.

I’m voting for Romney, BTW.

Vyce on August 10, 2012 at 2:53 PM

So you’re posting this from work, right? ;0

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:55 PM

thatsafactjack on August 10, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Well, growing the economy “from the middle” sounds good on the stump, but it makes no sense. He’s saying that the middle class is going to create all the wealth, start and expand businesses, hire people, etc.? It simply cannot happen that way.

TarheelBen on August 10, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Happy Nomad on August 10, 2012 at 2:40 PM

The big population growth in Northern Virginia has been outside of Fairfax County. Fairfax, like Montgomery County in Maryland, is a small slice of Massachusetts brought south.

Defense spending in No. Va?

Yes, but even defense contractors and soldiers are afraid of this “Chicago style” administration. They couldn’t imagine W coming after them despite the attempted murder of Valerie Plume. Now, they are afraid.

Generally, people are afraid to Dis our POTUS. That is very true around here since you have the race issue and the employer spying influence. Most of the money flows from the Feds.

But No Va elected Frank Wolf too.

THEY RECOGNIZED THE POLLSTER AND THAT COULD HAVE ENGENDERED MORE CANDOR.

IlikedAUH2O on August 10, 2012 at 3:04 PM

An oldie but a goodie, Jim Moran quote: Said in November 2008 that:

“We have been guided by a Republican administration who believes in the simplistic notion that people who have wealth are entitled to keep it and they have an antipathy towards means of redistributing wealth.”

Angineer on August 10, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Incidentally, does anybody have a good idea what the demographic ratio SHOULD be for Virginia?

WolvenOne on August 10, 2012 at 2:39 PM

It’s always hard to tell because there isn’t party registration in Virginia. People can blow hot and cold as to which party they identify with in polls and even voting in primaries is erratic. I’m always skeptical of polls in Virginia.

rockmom on August 10, 2012 at 3:10 PM

obama running “scrapping bottom” ads : 78 million dollars…obama cutting defense budget : 55 billion dollars…. forcing obama to fight for the state he won by 20 ? priceless !

runner on August 10, 2012 at 2:31 PM

You think Obama won VA by 20 in ’08? Wow. Even more clueless than we all thought.

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 3:11 PM

I thought Drudge would put up a siren when I saw this right after Gallup posted it.

Long Legged MacDaddy on August 10, 2012 at 2:13 PM

FWIW, Drudge has it up now.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 10, 2012 at 3:11 PM

All right, I’m going anti-Eyeore with this poll result.

:-)

Allahpundit = Eyeore

Mary Katharine Ham = anti-Eyeore

:-)

ITguy on August 10, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Well, growing the economy “from the middle” sounds good on the stump, but it makes no sense. He’s saying that the middle class is going to create all the wealth, start and expand businesses, hire people, etc.? It simply cannot happen that way.

TarheelBen on August 10, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Liberals really believe this nonsense though. Because the “middle class” is so large in terms of numbers, putting more money in their pockets through government handouts increases their disposable income and ostensibly gets that money back into the economy through their spending which causs economic growth. Of course, they always, always think that money just comes from the Magic Fairy Money Tree and taking it from someone else’s pocket through taxes has no impact whatsoever on THEIR spending or hiring or anything else.

In other words, they are morons.

rockmom on August 10, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Do Inthemiddle, Gumbyandpokey and Toldyaso all live together in the same basement?

LASue on August 10, 2012 at 2:36 PM

They’re working out of an obama for America office somewhere, so…you’re actually paying them to be here. Isn’t that special?

Rational Thought on August 10, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Here in the real Virginia (Richmond), we call him Jim Moron. The rest of the state considers NOVA to be part of DC, not Virginia.

College Prof on August 10, 2012 at 3:19 PM

MKH,

I’m sitting here in the thick of NOVA, and I will tell you that there is a definite lean AWAY from Obama. I don’t want to get my hopes up, but as I travel daily, I see more and more Romney bumper stickers and less Obama ones, and just yesterday had a great open discussion about healthcare and the economy with a local plumber who’s shop almost completely voted Obama in 2008, that are going nowhere near Obama this year (not full-on voting for Romney, but at least there is no way they are voting Obama). Things are changing around these parts… :) ~ RD

RumblinDurango on August 10, 2012 at 3:19 PM

You think Obama won VA by 20 in ’08? Wow. Even more clueless than we all thought.

inthemiddle on August 10, 2012 at 3:11 PM

I think he won VA by a little over 6 and north VA by 20+. What do you think ?

runner on August 10, 2012 at 3:26 PM

They’re working out of an obama for America office somewhere, so…you’re actually paying them to be here. Isn’t that special?

Rational Thought on August 10, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Yep, getting marching orders/talking points from Axelrod, Plouffe and their underlings.

And I’m convinced one of ‘em is really crr6 reincarnated.

Right Mover on August 10, 2012 at 3:28 PM

No way the Old Dominion is going to fall for that loser, Obama, again – take it to the bank!

Bob in VA on August 10, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Things are looking up. 10,000 Obama votes off of the role.

donkichi on August 10, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Holder to whine about the “disenfranchised dead” in 3…2…1…

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 10, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Allahpundit = Eeyore

Mary Katharine Ham = anti-Eeyore

:-)

ITguy on August 10, 2012 at 3:12 PM

So does that mean that if the two of them meet, the universe will be annihilated?

:-)

Mary in LA on August 10, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Allahpundit = Eyeore

Mary Katharine Ham = anti-Eyeore

:-)

ITguy on August 10, 2012 at 3:12 PM

..if they collide, will it mean the end of the universe?

The War Planner on August 10, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Based on the above and with the guaranteed Republican States Romney would win 295 Electoral Vote and would win the elections.

mnjg on August 10, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Voice of sanity in the current wilderness.

Rapunzel on August 10, 2012 at 3:57 PM

At our NoVa house, we call him the ‘Looser Moran’ and I think you know what we mean.

In 2009 McDonnell narrowly won NoVa: http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/RESU1109.pdf

That was an off year, but it shows that Fairfax does not vote like Manhattan, though Alexandria and Arlington may.

The thing to do in NoVa and Hampton Roads is to keep the margin close, unless Romney is winning – then we want to increase that margin as much as possible.

Let’s get out the vote NoVa!

perries on August 10, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Virginia Voters Alliance is going through the voter rolls to make sure people are eligible to vote.

Angineer on August 10, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Could be some truth to it. I live in NoVA and the drop from the prevalence of 2008 Obama bumper stickers to 2012 stickers is a good 80%. The various liberal voter registration groups trolling the Orange line metro stations also seem to be making no headway whatsoever.

JeremiahJohnson on August 10, 2012 at 4:16 PM

College Prof on August 10, 2012 at 3:19 PM

If NOVA is not part of Virginia, can we keep our own tax and investment money and watch the rest of the state turn into a poorer version of West Virginia?

IlikedAUH2O on August 10, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Rumor is we get 1/5 of our taxes back. One fifth.

IlikedAUH2O on August 10, 2012 at 4:26 PM

More than the poll I am glad SOMEONE at Hot Air views Allahpundit and his bed-wetting with some skepticism.

More important to the board is to note some key things about polls in 2012

Part of Axelrod’s past Mo is to call up polling places and complain their poll is out of whack and presto his candidate suddenly gains votes.

One of Axelrod’s trick is a marketing trick to make the victory seem to be inevitable. HE DID THIS WITH HILLIARY. He gets it to be the cool thing or to make it as comfortable as possible to support HIS candidate

Secondly, fundraising goes up and down with the poll so they have to worry that disappointing polls for Obama will dry up money and thus dry up the machine.

PLEASE ALLAHPUNDIT WAKE UP TO THIS SCAM!!!!!

PS: Take note this is a poll appeared suddenly for the first time and as such hasn’t been tainted/pressured by the Axelrod/MSM/Democrat machine.

Conan on August 10, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Could be some truth to it. I live in NoVA and the drop from the prevalence of 2008 Obama bumper stickers to 2012 stickers is a good 80%. The various liberal voter registration groups trolling the Orange line metro stations also seem to be making no headway whatsoever.

JeremiahJohnson on August 10, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Before there were Internet trolls, there were real trolls. Last year I saw an Obama worker following a shopper to her car to try to get her to spend some time at his table that he’d set up in front of the supermarket. In hindsight, I wish I’d gone up to him & told him to stop disturbing the customers.

22044 on August 10, 2012 at 4:42 PM

If NOVA is not part of Virginia, can we keep our own tax and investment money and watch the rest of the state turn into a poorer version of West Virginia?

IlikedAUH2O on August 10, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Charleston and Richmond are both beautiful capital cities, so if NOVA wants to be uber-liberal, we don’t mind being the sane country cousins. My daughter lives in Arlington, and frankly, it’s a great place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there.

College Prof on August 10, 2012 at 4:45 PM

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