CBS/NYT poll shows swing states in play for Romney

posted at 9:21 am on August 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’ve already taken a look at one of our “favorite” polls to analyze.  How about another series infamous for sampling issues?  The latest survey from CBS and the New York Times covers three swing states won by Barack Obama in 2008, and where Mitt Romney hopes to compete. The polling performed by Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT shows Romney leading in Colorado, within the margin of error in Virginia, and almost so in Wisconsin:

Romney is ahead of the president in the swing state of Colorado, 50 percent to 45 percent. The poll shows a key part of Mr. Obama’s Colorado coalition from 2008 — college-educated white voters – in play this year.

Mr. Obama, meanwhile, leads Romney in Virginia, 49 percent to 45 percent, thanks in part to strong support from women and black voters.

In a third important state, Wisconsin, Mr. Obama has a 6-point lead over Romney, 51 percent to 45.

Twitter follower Marc BC got to the sample data ahead of me:

Let’s take a look at Virginia first.  The D/R/I of this poll is 30/23/40, with 7% undetermined.  The D/R/I of the 2008 election exit polling for VA was 39/33/27, which is far off from Quinnipiac’s model, undersampling both Democrats and Republicans.  The relative position between Democrats and Republicans is about the same (D+7 in this poll, D+6 in 2008), but I doubt we’re going to see a 2008 electorate model in November.  We don’t have exit polling from VA in 2010, so we don’t know how the Republican wave would have performed statewide — but we do know that Virginia elected a Republican governor in 2009, largely on the basis of opposition to Obama’s policies.

Next, let’s look at Colorado, where Romney leads.  The D/R/I is 27/32/37 in the poll; in 2008, it was 30/31/39, and in 2010 33/28/39. Colorado was one of the few states to get more Democratic in the midterms than in the previous presidential election.  I’m not certain that pattern will hold in 2012, though, and it’s also worth noting that independents almost evenly split in their partisan leanings (40/39 Republican).  This might be a slight GOP oversample; it still suggests a virtual tie, hardly good news for an incumbent in a state that rebuffed the GOP wave in 2010.

The sample for Wisconsin may be the toughest to analyze.  The poll’s D/R/I is 34/27/33, close to the same gap as the 2008 election’s 39/33/29.  However, the 2010 midterms produced an electorate of 37/36/28, which showed a strong GOP trend.  Thanks to the waste of millions of dollars by unions in recall elections, the Republican base has been fired up ever since, and Scott Walker’s highly successful GOTV infrastructure remains in place for Romney.  Of the three states polled by Quinnipiac, this might be the biggest Democratic oversample in terms of what model we can expect in November.

Overall, this shows Romney competing in states Obama can’t afford to lose — after getting bombarded by an avalanche of negative advertising.  If Romney is this close in Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado, he will be well positioned to answer Obama with his own deluge of messaging when the convention unlocks the general-election funds he’s raised over the summer.


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PPP has a poll linked in the headlines showing CO going for 0bama 49-43 currently.

chasdal on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

When Romney unleashes the general election funds it will be like the Americans opening up on the British at Bunker Hill. “Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes.”

Imrahil on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

“Overall, this shows Romney competing in states Obama can’t afford to lose — after getting bombarded by an avalanche of negative advertising.”

This is nuts. Virginia is a MUST WIN for Romney and he is always trailing there. Obama could lose Virginia and still easily win. Romney can’t afford to lose there.

And this solid six point lead for Obama in WI is the same margin the accurate MU poll in WI showed during their recall surveys (which nailed the election). WI is solid Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

The President is vulnerable.

rob verdi on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

EEEEEEEEEXXXXXCELLENT

- Montgomery Burns

aunursa on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

“When Romney unleashes the general election funds it will be like the Americans opening up on the British at Bunker Hill. “Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes.””

What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?

The “you didn’t build that” comment didn’t hurt Obama one bit. If attacking small business is OK with the American public, there isn’t much anyone can do to beat the guy.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

If Romney is this close in Wisconsin, Virginia, and Colorado, he will be well positioned to answer Obama with his own deluge of messaging when the convention unlocks the general-election funds he’s raised over the summer.

..Death Star to go live in 19..18..17..

The War Planner on August 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

The sample for Wisconsin may be the toughest to analyze. The poll’s D/R/I is 34/27/33, close to the same gap as the 2008 election’s 39/33/29. However, the 2010 midterms produced an electorate of 37/36/28, which showed a strong GOP trend. Thanks to the waste of millions of dollars by unions in recall elections, the Republican base has been fired up ever since, and Scott Walker’s highly successful GOTV infrastructure remains in place for Romney. Of the three states polled by Quinnipiac, this might be the biggest Democratic oversample in terms of what model we can expect in November.

It gets worse when one looks at the 2012 recall exit poll. Overall turnout was roughly halfway between the 2010 midterms and 2008 Presidential election, and the partisan split was 34%D/35%R/31%I.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 9:32 AM

What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?

The “you didn’t build that” comment didn’t hurt Obama one bit. If attacking small business is OK with the American public, there isn’t much anyone can do to beat the guy.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Gee, I don’t know. Maybe that 170 mil in cash he’s sitting on? Think that won’t buy a crapload of negative ads with just over 2 months between the convention and Election Day?

And how do you know “you didn’t build that” didn’t hurt Obama? He sure seemed to act like it was a major gaffe. And Rasmussen(I think) did a poll that showed people overwhelming disagreed with that sentiment. Does that mean votes were changed as a result? Maybe not, but if you think that actually helped Obama with anyone who wasn’t already predisposed to voting for him, you’re a moron.

Doughboy on August 8, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Damn it.

Four threads saying the same thing and no Republican primary results from last night.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, the swing states are in play. And after the Republican Convention Romney will lead. And after the Democrat Convention Obama will. Meanwhile, people have voted, and we have some new candidates to maybe get out there in the headlines.

Marcus on August 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

..Death Star to go live in 19..18..17..

The War Planner on August 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Now witness the firepower of this fully ARMED and OPERATIONAL RomneyStar!

aunursa on August 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I love swingers!

faraway on August 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

“It gets worse when one looks at the 2012 recall exit poll. Overall turnout was roughly halfway between the 2010 midterms and 2008 Presidential election, and the partisan split was 34%D/35%R/31%I.”

The problem is that you will have a much, much higher turnout in the city of Milwaukee (largely African American) in this election. They didn’t bother showing up for the recall.

And, Steve, the MU poll showed Obama up 6, too. That poll was pretty darned accurate.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

The “you didn’t build that” comment didn’t hurt Obama one bit. If attacking small business is OK with the American public, there isn’t much anyone can do to beat the guy.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Handwringing duly noted. Thanks.

changer1701 on August 8, 2012 at 9:37 AM

WI is solid Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

And if Romney puts Paul Ryan on the ticket? Still solid?

Trafalgar on August 8, 2012 at 9:38 AM

The problem is that you will have a much, much higher turnout in the city of Milwaukee (largely African American) in this election. They didn’t bother showing up for the recall.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

And there won’t be higher GOP(and conservative independent) turnout for a Presidential election vs. a recall?

Doughboy on August 8, 2012 at 9:38 AM

“Move along, nothing to see here.”

OK, show me any evidence that “you didn’t build that” hurt Obama’s poll numbers, or helped Romney’s.

As usual, there is never any evidence, just hope against hope that something…anything…can change the dynamic.

The same denial went on over at KOS when bad recall polls for Barrett would come out, and the comments would be “just wait until…” or “what a terrible sample from MU…” The losing side always makes excuses and sticks their head in the sand.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:38 AM

The “you didn’t build that” comment didn’t hurt Obama one bit. If attacking small business is OK with the American public, there isn’t much anyone can do to beat the guy.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Quit poking gumby and wake up.

msupertas on August 8, 2012 at 9:41 AM

“And there won’t be higher GOP(and conservative independent) turnout for a Presidential election vs. a recall?”

Just look at the turnout numbers from the Conservative areas of the state. Nearly every vote was milked out of those.

Now you get all the college students voting and they were gone for the recall. And, as I said, the city of Milwaukee’s turnout will be huge when it was so-so for the recall.

And this same six point margin is the margin of the MU poll, so there just might be something to it.

BTW, there is a new MU poll coming out today, so we’ll see what they say.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Let’s have a day where we give the cozmo response to our trolls. gumbyandpokey…bless your heart.

DanMan on August 8, 2012 at 9:42 AM

PPP has a poll linked in the headlines showing CO going for 0bama 49-43 currently.

chasdal on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

And Rasmussen showed a tie. Whatever float your boat. The race is tight in reality in CO.

bayview on August 8, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Imrahil on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Bunker Hill…I like that…

PatriotRider on August 8, 2012 at 9:44 AM

WI is solid Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

And if Romney puts Paul Ryan on the ticket? Still solid?

Trafalgar on August 8, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Ask yourself if Ryan could run for the Senate in WI and win. I honestly don’t think he could.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 9:44 AM

With an economy this bad, with unemployment this high, with a president this un-American offering solutions this bad – we really should be coasting into the oval office with the election being a mere formality. The fact that we’re having to fight for lives, political and otherwise, just shows how weak Romney is. Don’t get me wrong: I’m not threatening to stay home in November and will hold my nose accordingly – but a lot of the Mittheads around here seem to think that anyone who refuses to engage in a willful suspension of disbelief and pretend that this dude’s gonna be a conservative once elected are jeopardizing his chances. Truth is, it’s the fact that have to hold our noses for this guy that’s jeopardizing his chances. Unless Palin and Ron Paul come around with explicit endorsements I see this tool throwing the election the way San Juan from Tucson did in 08.

abobo on August 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

The problem is that you will have a much, much higher turnout in the city of Milwaukee (largely African American) in this election. They didn’t bother showing up for the recall.

And, Steve, the MU poll showed Obama up 6, too. That poll was pretty darned accurate.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Because they all showed up in Racine.

We’ll have a fresh Marquette Law poll this afternoon, so don’t hang your hat on last month’s poll.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Just look at the turnout numbers from the Conservative areas of the state. Nearly every vote was milked out of those.

Now you get all the college students voting and they were gone for the recall. And, as I said, the city of Milwaukee’s turnout will be huge when it was so-so for the recall.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:41 AM

So you’re counting on GOP/conservative turnout being stagnant and the youth and minority vote(two groups devastated by his economic policies) carrying Obama to victory? Lots of luck with that electoral strategery.

Doughboy on August 8, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Time to head over to RCP and “make my own map”. It sure is interesting to play around and see how it potentially works out. In one Electoral Vote Scenario I actually got it to work out that if Obama got 1 EV (Omaha, which happened in 08) from the split Electorals in Nebraska that would get him exactly 270.

BTW, Obama will be in Council Bluffs, Iowa on Monday. This is basically East Omaha, or Omaha is West Council Bluffs (don’t want to offend either state. Only a river separates the cities/states). Either way Romney needs to get his butt to Omaha. There is no way 1 Electoral Vote should be going to Obama in a deep red state such as Nebraska. Especially since it may potentially decide the election.

weaselyone on August 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

EYES GLAZING OVER!

Poll mania.

gerrym51 on August 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Just look at the turnout numbers from the Conservative areas of the state. Nearly every vote was milked out of those.

Now you get all the college students voting and they were gone for the recall. And, as I said, the city of Milwaukee’s turnout will be huge when it was so-so for the recall.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Will those college kids be voting absentee in their hometowns as well? One wonders why the left wants college IDs to be adequate voter ID.

weaselyone on August 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

As usual, there is never any evidence, just hope against hope that something…anything…can change the dynamic.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:38 AM

You should have taken some of your own advise.

WI is solid Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Here too.

The problem is that you will have a much, much higher turnout in the city of Milwaukee (largely African American) in this election. They didn’t bother showing up for the recall.

As it turns out, gumby, turnout in Dane county and Milwaukee county was pretty strong for the recall.

WisRich on August 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

“With an economy this bad, with unemployment this high, with a president this un-American offering solutions this bad – we really should be coasting into the oval office with the election being a mere formality.”

100% correct.

And, yet, Obama is still ahead (and solidly so in swing states).

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:50 AM

What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

He can’t legally spend his general campaign money until after he’s been formally nominated. He can spend what’s left of his primary fund.

Wethal on August 8, 2012 at 9:52 AM

“As it turns out, gumby, turnout in Dane county and Milwaukee county was pretty strong for the recall.”

Milwaukee County’s turnout was good. The City of Miwaukee’s turnout was not great. THAT is where a ton of Obama votes will come from.

Add in thousands and thousands of college students, too.

And there were a significant number of Obama voters who also voted for Walker due to an opposition in principle to the idea of a recall.

The MU poll showed the same six point margin. It’s accurate.

Let’s see what their new poll shows today.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Mr. Obama, meanwhile, leads Romney in Virginia, 49 percent to 45 percent, thanks in part to strong support from women and black voters.

This a demographic I never understand….if one’s support is due to women and blacks…are the two mutually exclusive? If one is black, then that person is counted in the black only column; if one is a woman, then she is only counted in the woman column. What happens if the voter is a black woman? Is she counted twice? This has never made sense to me…which is why I despise pigeonholing/labeling of demographics. If I am to be labelled, I would be white, woman, highly educated, religious, upper income, suburban, married, mother, small business owner, ethnic (German, Irish, English, French)—so how would I be counted in their poll?

herm2416 on August 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Let’s see, gas prices are rising again, it’s getting more and more expensive to visit the grocery story and the boy king guts Clinton’s Welfare Reform law making it easier for people to sit on their butts while getting a check from the government.

I’d say Team Romney will have some powerful ammunition to use when he finally gets the general election funds after the convention.

Flora Duh on August 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

i keep seeing the phrase – after the convention when he “unlocks the general election funds” if mitt isn’t taking public money why are these funds locked up?

ArthurMachado on August 8, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Part of the reason for Colorado “getting more Democratic in 2010″ has to do with the clusterfark of a Governor’s race where the unelectable Dan Maes was the Republican candidate.

After he refused to drop out of the race, despite several personal scandals, Tom Tancredo ran against him and pulled 36% to Maes’ 11%, with the infighting between the two acting as enough to get the Dem, Hickenlooper, over 51%.

teke184 on August 8, 2012 at 9:56 AM

“Because they all showed up in Racine.

We’ll have a fresh Marquette Law poll this afternoon, so don’t hang your hat on last month’s poll.”

Agree about Racine.

BTW, was told by someone at MU yesterday the new Obama/Romney numbers were “pretty much the same” as the last poll.

IMO, WI isn’t really in play and better time and money would be spent in OH, VA, FL, IA and CO.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:57 AM

solidly

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 8, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Mr. Obama, meanwhile, leads Romney in Virginia, 49 percent to 45 percent, thanks in part to strong support from women and black voters.

This a demographic I never understand….if one’s support is due to women and blacks…are the two mutually exclusive? If one is black, then that person is counted in the black only column; if one is a woman, then she is only counted in the woman column. What happens if the voter is a black woman? Is she counted twice? This has never made sense to me…which is why I despise pigeonholing/labeling of demographics. If I am to be labelled, I would be white, woman, highly educated, religious, upper income, suburban, married, mother, small business owner, ethnic (German, Irish, English, French)—so how would I be counted in their poll?

herm2416 on August 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Nicely played.

msupertas on August 8, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Desperation definition: polling matters !!!!!!!!

pambi on August 8, 2012 at 9:58 AM

So you’re counting on GOP/conservative turnout being stagnant and the youth and minority vote(two groups devastated by his economic policies) carrying Obama to victory? Lots of luck with that electoral strategery.

Doughboy on August 8, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I was just about to make the same point. Of course there’s always the possibility all these groups suffer from some form of Stockholm Syndrome and will show up in droves to vote for the guy who’s screwing them.

Buy Danish on August 8, 2012 at 9:59 AM

i keep seeing the phrase – after the convention when he “unlocks the general election funds” if mitt isn’t taking public money why are these funds locked up?

ArthurMachado on August 8, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Gumby,
From Jsonline:

Turnout in the city of Milwaukee was a little over 51% of voting-age adults June 5. That was lower than the statewide turnout rate. But it also was a big increase from the 2010 governor’s race, when turnout was only 43%.

In fact, the city of Milwaukee cast 20% more votes in 2012 than it did in the 2010 race for governor, a bigger increase than the state as a whole experienced (16%). Milwaukee cast almost 30% more votes on June 5 than it did in the 2006 race for governor. That suggests Democrats had success turning out their base in Milwaukee, while losing badly in much of outstate Wisconsin

This also

These were the top five counties for turnout, measured by votes cast as a percentage of voting-age adults (using population figures from the 2010 census):

Ozaukee: 74%.

Waukesha: 72%.

Washington: 70%.

Bayfield: 68%.

Dane: 67%.

WisRich on August 8, 2012 at 10:00 AM

i keep seeing the phrase – after the convention when he “unlocks the general election funds” if mitt isn’t taking public money why are these funds locked up?

ArthurMachado on August 8, 2012 at 10:00 AM

He can’t use the funds from the RNC until he is officially the Republican nominee. That won’t happen until the convention.

Flora Duh on August 8, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Last nite on Hugh Hewitt radio he said in Romney thinks he got it and 3-4 points ahead on his internal polls, he’ll pick Pawlenty, if it’s closer like 1-2, and he really needs help in Ohio, he’ll pick Portman and if he’s -1 to 0 he’ll go Rubio. That’s why I think it’s gonna be Portman…

I don’t know about Ryan. He’s scary (not to me, but i think we need him to stay in the House) to folks worried a lot about their entitlements and I think Team O could make a very big boogie man out of him.

gracie on August 8, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Let’s see, gas prices are rising again, it’s getting more and more expensive to visit the grocery story and the boy king guts Clinton’s Welfare Reform law making it easier for people to sit on their butts while getting a check from the government.
Flora Duh on August 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

That may actually motivate the dependence class to go and vote to make sure their Obama money keeps coming.

bayview on August 8, 2012 at 10:03 AM

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Yeah dummy&dopey, nothing at all for you to worry about. just ask gingrich and perry and santorum. deathstar had no effect. and obama has nothing he can be attacked on like promising to cut the deficit in half and then tripling it while adding 6 trillion to the debt, or promising to fix the econ in his first 3 yrs of face a one term proposition, or promising you could keep your health plan or causing businesses to be so fearful of his taxes and regulation that it has caused a hiring freeze…yeah nothing here to attack

phillysfinest on August 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

The “you didn’t build that” comment didn’t hurt Obama one bit. If attacking small business is OK with the American public, there isn’t much anyone can do to beat the guy.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Which is probably why you are not involved in his campaign,

What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?

Exactly the question that Obama is asking, Mitt hasn’t started his real campaign.

If you don’t think he knows how to use ads…ask Newt how effective he is. He destroyed Newt with his scorched earth advertising in Florida…and I am sure Newt said “What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?” that I haven’t seen before.

Now ask Rick, who still has his tail between his legs, he is still saying “What the heck did he unleash?”.

Pal, Mitt is only using Pack money, he can’t use the election funds yet, Obama is dipping into everything just to stay afloat.

It’s over, it is only by how much will Mitt win, not if he will win. Notice how personal Obama has gotten? A sign of a degenerating campaign.

And wait until the debates…no teleprompter there, a huge edge to Romney, and the debates have defined almost every election since Kennedy and Nixon.

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

He can’t legally spend his general campaign money until after he’s been formally nominated. He can spend what’s left of his primary fund.

Wethal on August 8, 2012 at 9:52 AM

The question is, what is Romney going to spend that money on? More negative ads telling us how sucky Obama is?

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

If you don’t think he knows how to use ads…ask Newt how effective he is. He destroyed Newt with his scorched earth advertising in Florida…and I am sure Newt said “What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?” that I haven’t seen before.

Now ask Rick, who still has his tail between his legs, he is still saying “What the heck did he unleash?”.

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Those were Republicans. He tries the same against Obama, he’s going to alienate those precious moderates and indies when the press starts going on about how “vicious” and “mean-spirited” and “dishonorable” the Romney campaign has become.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:07 AM

i keep seeing the phrase – after the convention when he “unlocks the general election funds” if mitt isn’t taking public money why are these funds locked up?

ArthurMachado on August 8, 2012 at 10:00 AM

By law, until he is the elected nominee, all the RNC money is “locked up”…he is just using his own campaign money and some PAC money…but the big bucks are with the RNC.
Imagine the effect he is having now with just a small percent of money, now imagine when the RNC, who is out raising the DNC unleashes the onslaught.

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The previous swing-state NYT/CBS/Q-polls from FL, OH, and PA also gave the voting percentages of their samples in the 2008 election, which (when compared to actual 2008 election results) enabled an estimation of 2012 results.

Ed, does this latest group of NYT/CBS/Q-polls in CO, WI, and VA show the Obama/McCain splits in 2008 for their samples? If so, could you post them?

Steve Z on August 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

It’s over, it is only by how much will Mitt win, not if he will win. Notice how personal Obama has gotten? A sign of a degenerating campaign.

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

LOL…

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

What, exactly, is Romney going to unleash?

The “you didn’t build that” comment didn’t hurt Obama one bit. If attacking small business is OK with the American public, there isn’t much anyone can do to beat the guy.

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

“If we haven’t turned this economy around in three years, we’re looking at a one-term proposition.”

“Our stimulus bill will create 5 million new jobs and reduce the unemployment rate to 6%.”

“We will close Guantanamo.”

“We will put all of our health care negotiations live on C-SPAN.”

“Solyndra is exactly the kind of clean energy business we need to be supporting.”

“I don’t support an individual mandate to buy health insurance.”

$200 million in ads that will primarily use Barack Obama’s own words to show America that NONE of his promises were kept. He promised that things would get better, he promised a new tone and a new spirit in Washington, he promised unprecedented transparency, he promised to REDUCE the national debt, he promised to end George W. Bush’s “terrible” policies in the war on terror.

America will also understand that Barack Obama is a liar and a fraud, his campoaign has been nothing but lies and deception about himself as well as about Mitt Romney.

rockmom on August 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Then again, maybe they should oversample Dems – that will help account for the voting shenanigans and post election day ‘recounts’ where boxes of ballots suddenly appear.

batter on August 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

That may actually motivate the dependence class to go and vote to make sure their Obama money keeps coming.

bayview on August 8, 2012 at 10:03 AM

That’s always a possibility, but believe it or not, there are some fiscally responsible Democrats. Can’t remember his name, but one showed up in the QOTD thread last night.

Flora Duh on August 8, 2012 at 10:11 AM

It is not so much the funds– but the message. I’m for gay marriage, and gays in the scouts too, isn’t going to help Oromney one bit.

I suspect that he has more bad news for his base and those social conservatives that badly need to form their own party and let the chips fall where they will.

There comes a point where voting for the lesser of two unacceptable evils is in itself unacceptable–consequences or not.

Don L on August 8, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Those were Republicans. He tries the same against Obama, he’s going to alienate those precious moderates and indies when the press starts going on about how “vicious” and “mean-spirited” and “dishonorable” the Romney campaign has become.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:07 AM

What it shows is he (his campaign) knows exactly the weak points, and he attacked those weaknesses, he didn’t run the same ads against Newt as Rick…sheesh, amateur hour at HotAir.

Mitt has 3.5 years of gaffs to show off…you don’t think he has shown his best this early do you? Good grief, the atomic bomb was dropped to end the war, not to start the war…

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:11 AM

gracie on August 8, 2012 at 10:03 AM

As much as I love Paul Ryan, picking him as vp is about the only way Romney can lose. It will put Romney on defense about entitlements. why would we want that debate now. the election is clearly a referendum on obama’s failed keynesian policies. 2/3 of the country says we’re on the wrong track. it will be a wave election like every single one since 08: christie, mcdonnell, scott brown, 63 seats in the house, all the walker/wisconsin elections. thats suddenly going to change now? picking ryan gives the dems a chance. it would be a mistake.

phillysfinest on August 8, 2012 at 10:12 AM

One last thing Gumby on that “Milwaukee” didn’t turn out.

Election Results

2008 Milwaukee County 476,860 City of Milwaukee 275,096

Recall Election

2012 Milwaukee County 395,866 City of Milwaukee 252,109

So, the 2012 recall had only 80k less votes cast but in the city of Milwaukee? Only 23k less votes cast.

It wasn’t the City that didn’t turn Gumby, it was the subburbs!

Take that Gumby, dammit!

WisRich on August 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

We don’t have exit polling from VA in 2010, so we don’t know how the Republican wave would have performed statewide — but we do know that Virginia elected a Republican governor in 2009, largely on the basis of opposition to Obama’s policies.

Ask Tom Perriello about the wisdom of not only supporting Obama but having him show up to campaign for you. But one thing to keep in mind, voting against Obama’s policies is not the same thing as voting against Obama. Too many demographic voters friendly to Obama to make this anything but a squeaker.

Happy Nomad on August 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

This can’t possibly be true; CBS and NYT are evil liberal communist media sources that say 2+2=5.

…oh wait…the polls are in favor?

MelonCollie on August 8, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Ed, does this latest group of NYT/CBS/Q-polls in CO, WI, and VA show the Obama/McCain splits in 2008 for their samples? If so, could you post them?

Steve Z on August 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I’m not Ed, but they didn’t include 2008 splits.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Mitt has 3.5 years of gaffs to show off…you don’t think he has shown his best this early do you? r…

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Yeah, the problem is we’ve already heard every one of them. If this is Romney’s post-convention strategy, I predict he’s 8 or 9 points behind come mid-October. You laugh when I say Romney will lose by 8+. Watch.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:17 AM

As much as I love Paul Ryan, picking him as vp is about the only way Romney can lose. It will put Romney on defense about entitlements. why would we want that debate now. the election is clearly a referendum on obama’s failed keynesian policies. 2/3 of the country says we’re on the wrong track. it will be a wave election like every single one since 08: christie, mcdonnell, scott brown, 63 seats in the house, all the walker/wisconsin elections. thats suddenly going to change now? picking ryan gives the dems a chance. it would be a mistake.

phillysfinest on August 8, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Point of order – Romney’s going to be on the defensive on entitlements anyway because Mediscare is part of EVERY ‘Rat campaign for federal office. Would you prefer the “I don’t know” approach or a “Here’s how to fix the problem” one?

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 10:19 AM

This is like pre-season football. The current polls don’t mean anything. They are just calling the same people that are happy to have their opinion noted. After the conventions and into the debates is where the real battle begins and this empty suit will be shown to be the narcissistic idiot that he is along with his imbecile of a VP. Buying a case of popcorn to be delivered on September 15th!!

Deano1952 on August 8, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Yeah, the problem is we’ve already heard every one of them. If this is Romney’s post-convention strategy, I predict he’s 8 or 9 points behind come mid-October. You laugh when I say Romney will lose by 8+. Watch.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Except this one:

Documents obtained by Judicial Watch confirm that somebody in the White House told officials with the General Services Administration (GSA) to “stand down” and not arrest Occupy Portland protestors who may have broken the law last year.

Former GSA Public Buildings Service Commissioner Robert Peck told a senior Department of Homeland Security official that the federal housekeeping agency had been instructed by the Obama White House to go easy on the Occupy protestors.

Peck is the guy with the lavish lifestyle in Vegas, that’s the kind of people Obama puts in charge…gee, I guess you haven’t seen them all have you?

Just because you have not “heard” them, doesn’t mean that there are many more out there…as I stated, amateur hour at HotAir.

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Because they all showed up in Racine.

We’ll have a fresh Marquette Law poll this afternoon, so don’t hang your hat on last month’s poll.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

You reckon they will still have the giant Obama poster up at that voting site in Racine on election day?

forest on August 8, 2012 at 10:30 AM

After the conventions and into the debates is where the real battle begins and this empty suit will be shown to be the narcissistic idiot that he is along with his imbecile of a VP. Buying a case of popcorn to be delivered on September 15th!!

Deano1952 on August 8, 2012 at 10:23 AM

What’s so impressive about Romney’s debating skills? The only time he really scored in all those countless primary debates was when he attacked Perry from the left on Social Security. I’d like to see Mitt try that against O.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:33 AM

You reckon they will still have the giant Obama poster up at that voting site in Racine on election day?

forest on August 8, 2012 at 10:30 AM

You know it.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 10:34 AM

You laugh when I say Romney will lose by 8+. Watch.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:17 AM

How about a little side bet, the winner’s money goes to the charity of their choice…$100 to $1,000, that Romney will beat your spread of 8 points.
Let’s see how sure you are of this action, and I am sure I can get a few others to chip in and raise the ante to much more….are you game?

Or as Mitt said to Reid, put up or shut up…

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:39 AM

The question is, what is Romney going to spend that money on? More negative ads telling us how sucky Obama is?

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

One hope some of it is on the ground game organizing the GOTV effort. Plenty of offices, people in place, signing up election day volunteers, poll watchers, even lawyers, etc.

Also guards for the vans to take voters to the polls so the tires aren’t slashed by a Dem poltician’s son, like what happenened in Milwaukee.

Wethal on August 8, 2012 at 10:41 AM

What’s so impressive about Romney’s debating skills? ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Romney has at least had the primaries to practice debates and extemporaneous speaking.

Obama is back tethered to TOTUS for his fundraising.

Obama without TOTUS is “uh, uh, uh,….you didn’t build that, uh, uh..”

Wethal on August 8, 2012 at 10:45 AM

How about a little side bet, the winner’s money goes to the charity of their choice…$100 to $1,000, that Romney will beat your spread of 8 points.
Let’s see how sure you are of this action, and I am sure I can get a few others to chip in and raise the ante to much more….are you game?

Or as Mitt said to Reid, put up or shut up…

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Forget the point spread. Let’s see how confident in Romney YOU are. Bet $1000 on a Romney victory straight up. Now let’s see who puts up or shuts up.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

What’s so impressive about Romney’s debating skills? The only time he really scored in all those countless primary debates was when he attacked Perry from the left on Social Security. I’d like to see Mitt try that against O.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Eight or so guys on a stage all trying to one up each other isn’t really a debate, it was more like the first week of American Idol. When Romney can totally focus on the corrupt, amateurish cronyism of the O administration, people will start to take notice.

Deano1952 on August 8, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Forget the point spread. Let’s see how confident in Romney YOU are. Bet $1000 on a Romney victory straight up. Now let’s see who puts up or shuts up.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Pal, you are the one who called out the point spread, not me…

You laugh when I say Romney will lose by 8+. Watch.

ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I am giving you a chance to have the last laugh…it’s your challenge not mine, I just happened along and decided to take you up on the challenge.

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Forget the point spread. Let’s see how confident in Romney YOU are. Bet $1000 on a Romney victory straight up. Now let’s see who puts up or shuts up.
ddrintn on August 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Do you want Romney or Obama to be your president for the next 4 years?

Chuck Schick on August 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I’d rather wait until we elect romney and a republican senate with a mandate to stop the spending, cut the deficit drastically and deal with entitlements. easy answer is raise the retirement age esp on the young who have no expectations of ss. but bringing it up now can make this a referendum on ryan’s plan. and altho obama has no plan except keep spending til we’re broke, the dems will demagogue and scare the seniors and we could lose. keep the focus on obama’s failures, not entitlements. fight that battle once we’re in a solid majority with a mandate to do it.

phillysfinest on August 8, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I’ll put up 1000.00 that Obama wins. Who among the poll bashers here is willing to put their money up and back up their nonsense that the polls are wrong and Mitt has some brilliant rope-a-dope thingy going on?

Let’s see who REALLY believes the crap their spewing!

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Let’s see who REALLY believes the crap their spewing!

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Actually the best way to do this, is to set up a trust fund where each puts in the required amount, than after the election, the funds are distributed, usually to a non-profit…but the funds are physically there.

The initial amount, is returned to the winner, and the loser amount (less the handling charge) is sent to recipient.

There are websites that do this…you are okay with that arrangement?

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Let’s see who REALLY believes the crap their spewing!

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Hello, anyone home? Knock, knock…anyone home?

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I guess not…well, nice bluff…good try…

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 11:22 AM

HAHAHAHAHA!!

right2bright on August 8, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Do you want Romney or Obama to be your president for the next 4 years?

Chuck Schick on August 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

answer the damn question ddrintn

right2bright, I’m in for $100

DanMan on August 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I’ll put up 1000.00 that Obama wins. Who among the poll bashers here is willing to put their money up and back up their nonsense that the polls are wrong and Mitt has some brilliant rope-a-dope thingy going on?

Let’s see who REALLY believes the crap their spewing!

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

So now you are going to waste $ 1000 of tax payers money that you receive in welfare checks on a bet… LOL…

mnjg on August 8, 2012 at 11:49 AM

One hope some of it is on the ground game organizing the GOTV effort. Plenty of offices, people in place, signing up election day volunteers, poll watchers, even lawyers, etc.

Also guards for the vans to take voters to the polls so the tires aren’t slashed by a Dem poltician’s son, like what happenened in Milwaukee.

Wethal on August 8, 2012 at 10:41 AM

It takes a lot of money and energy to bring the dumb democrat voters to the poll, it takes much less energy and money to bring Republican voters to the polls… In 2012 we are vastly more energized than 2008 and certainly vastly more energized than the democrats…

mnjg on August 8, 2012 at 11:53 AM

I’d rather wait until we elect romney and a republican senate with a mandate to stop the spending, cut the deficit drastically and deal with entitlements. easy answer is raise the retirement age esp on the young who have no expectations of ss. but bringing it up now can make this a referendum on ryan’s plan. and altho obama has no plan except keep spending til we’re broke, the dems will demagogue and scare the seniors and we could lose. keep the focus on obama’s failures, not entitlements. fight that battle once we’re in a solid majority with a mandate to do it.

phillysfinest on August 8, 2012 at 11:02 AM

In short, nothing will get done. Bush had, arguably, a mandate to do something after the 2004 election and look what happened.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 11:58 AM

I’ll put up 1000.00 that Obama wins. Who among the poll bashers here is willing to put their money up and back up their nonsense that the polls are wrong and Mitt has some brilliant rope-a-dope thingy going on?

Let’s see who REALLY believes the crap their spewing!

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Give us your name and locale and somebody will take care of you.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 11:59 AM

OT, but at least SOME news …
Page, Sikh temple shooter apparently shot himself, after having been wounded.
Carry on.

pambi on August 8, 2012 at 12:04 PM

With the exception of Rasmussen the polling seems to be a combination of liberal bias because liberal papers are paying for these polls and groupthink that no one wants to start using the REAL turnout Model which will be REPUBLICAN/INDEPENDENT heavy not democrat +9.

Secondly despite my BS in Statistics maybe something can be explained to me by these polling outfits how Obama is losing with independents and obviously will all republicans who will vote but has a clear lead and is close to 50% in a lot of cases in their “weighted” poll.

A bigger pile of horsedung statistical lying I have not seen from people not on their way to prison for cooking the books.

Folks this is all about convincing donors to keep donating to the crony capitalist in the WH because their investment will pay off when he wins and has nothing to do with predicting the voter’s wishes.

Conan on August 8, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Btw, isn’t wagering frowned upon @ HA ??
Jus sayin.

pambi on August 8, 2012 at 12:08 PM

While we still have 3 months to go, I am more interested Rasmussen and Gallup approval numbers to determine the likelihood of Obama being elected. He is stuck in the 45-46% range and can’t get above that range. Unless something happens dramatically with the economy I don’t see him getting above 47%. If you look at the crazy ads the dems are running, I would guarantee that the internals for Obama are pretty bad.

Ta111 on August 8, 2012 at 1:11 PM

MU Poll. Obama’s lead has shrunk to 5 points from 7 points in July. Obama is tetering on the 50% line.

WisRich on August 8, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Folks this is all about convincing donors to keep donating to the crony capitalist in the WH because their investment will pay off when he wins and has nothing to do with predicting the voter’s wishes.

Conan on August 8, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Couldn’t agree more…their massive scare right now is that Romney is going to start spending big, and they won’t have that ‘big’ to spend anymore, due to 0′s burning through his campaign cash like a pyromaniac in june and july…then you have Wall Street saying publicly that their bet is on Romney, which means less money for Obama from that industry clearly…and he can’t raise enough from the Moochers from now to elections day, to make the difference for and match what Romney is raising and has been raising so far…so there is no doubt in my mind that these polls showing him as competitive is all about convincing donors that he is not a lost cause yet…their iinternal polls tell a different story alltogether, and it’s probably a tale of a desperation and exasperation, if you need any more proof, look at the ads they are running…they do not tell the story of a confident, successfull sitting president, but pretty much the story of an insecure thug who would stop at mothing to win one more round of elections…

jimver on August 8, 2012 at 3:22 PM

I’ll put up 1000.00 that Obama wins. Who among the poll bashers here is willing to put their money up and back up their nonsense that the polls are wrong and Mitt has some brilliant rope-a-dope thingy going on?

Let’s see who REALLY believes the crap their spewing!

gumbyandpokey on August 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Who believes the excrements you are spewing and who would ever make a bet with a mythomaniac and a pathological liaf such as yourself….anyways…go away, rat…

jimver on August 8, 2012 at 3:25 PM

pambi on August 8, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Shhhhhh. Think Admiral Ackbar here.

Steve Eggleston on August 8, 2012 at 5:47 PM