July jobs report: 163K jobs added, 8.3% jobless rate

posted at 8:31 am on August 3, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics gave some mildly good news for the first time in four months.  The US economy added 163,000 jobs, slightly outpacing population growth, while the jobless rate ticked up slightly to 8.3%:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing. …

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics (10.3 percent) edged down in July, while the rates for adult men (7.7 percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and blacks (14.1 percent) showed little
or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.2 percent in July (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.2 million. These individuals accounted for 40.7 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little in July.

However, there is more bad news than good.  July saw a slight move up in U-6, which had been coming down earlier in the year to the mid-14 range.  That measure of un/underemployment has now risen to 15.2%, increasing in both adjusted and unadjusted measures.  It’s the highest rating in this measure since February, and it’s now up more than a full point since April.

The workforce lost 150,000 people last month, after adding 156,000 in June.  The civilian-participation rate dropped a tenth of a point to almost hit the 30-year low again it reached in April.  The measure of people not in the workforce jumped by 348,000, which may be why the jobless rate only went up a tenth of a point.

National Journal’s Jim Tankersley writes that this will give Barack Obama a boost on the campaign trail, but “the pace of growth still not strong enough to bring down the unemployment rate over time.”  Certainly the last part is objectively true, and I think he may be right about the boost for Obama, too — but anyone familiar with these numbers won’t buy it.  If this is what passes for good economic news for the Obama administration, it’s more of an indictment than a boost.  However, most people will hear “163,000″ and think that sounds pretty good.

CNBC gives the report a pretty fair assessment, noting that the report also says that the number of working Americans actually dropped by 195,000:

The U.S. economy closed out an otherwise weak second quarter by creating more jobs than expected, with 163,000 new positions added, but the unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent. …

“While the monthly gain is still relatively small by historical standards, it might help spark somewhat higher consumer optimism and spending,” Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board, said in response to the report.

The report showed that the actual amount of Americans working dropped by 195,000, with the net job gain resulting primarily from seasonal adjustments. The birth-death model, which approximates net job growth from newly added or closed businesses, added 52,000 to the total.

June’s jobs gain got revised downward by 16,000 to 64,000, while May was revised upward by 10,000 to 87,000.  Roughly speaking, it’s a wash.

Update: Reuters says this is good news … for people who want the Fed to start another round of quantitative easing:

Employers in July hired the most workers in five months, but an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3 percent will probably keep expectations of additional monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve intact.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 163,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, beating economists expectations for a 100,000 gain. The report was dimmed somewhat by the increase in the jobless rate from 8.2 percent in June, even as more people gave up the search for work.

That won’t happen before the election, I’m guessing.


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Government workers still spend money in the economy, which helps other businesses. Conservtives often forget that…

libfreeordie on August 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

This marries nicely with Pelosi’s imaginative belief that 1 dollar of unemployment benefits generates 3 dollars of economic activity, and supporting the claim that government spending grows the economy.

At least until you discover where the money came from. Very much like scooping a cup of water out of the deep end of a pool and pouring into the shallow end….minus the amount spilled while doing it.

“Look at us….we’re filling up the shallow end!”

BobMbx on August 3, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I am giving up sarcasm.

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

heh. Just so you know, I got it.

Flora Duh on August 3, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I wonder if she knows she ran Congress the last 2 years when things went South.

Wagthatdog on August 3, 2012 at 10:30 AM

we are talking Nancy here.

upinak on August 3, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Wagthatdog on August 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Please see comment just above yours. I used 5 sarc tags and stated that it hurt to type what I typed. As with the others who missed the sarc tag, you are absolutely correct.

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I am giving up sarcasm.

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Never do that. It is an art form. Text is tricky.

Cindy Munford on August 3, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I am giving up sarcasm.

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

for thee to forget thus sarc tag, is for thee to go unto the wilderness, and forget the trees. ;)

upinak on August 3, 2012 at 10:35 AM

8.3/1.5

CW on August 3, 2012 at 10:35 AM

8.3% mostly middle class.
Except for that EFO that was fired over his rant at Chick-Fil-A.

Electrongod on August 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

…the first time in my life that other than a politician…I’m happy someone lost their job.

KOOLAID2 on August 3, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I wonder what President BlameBush’s response to these terrible job numbers will be?

theCork on August 3, 2012 at 10:40 AM

heh. Just so you know, I got it.

Flora Duh on August 3, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Thank you!

Never do that. It is an art form. Text is tricky.

Cindy Munford on August 3, 2012 at 10:35 AM

I used multiple sarc tags. Where did I go wrong!

for thee to forget thus sarc tag, is for thee to go unto the wilderness, and forget the trees. ;)

upinak on August 3, 2012 at 10:35 AM

LOL- That was almost…poetic!

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Government workers still spend money in the economy, which helps other businesses. Conservtives often forget that…

libfreeordie on August 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

….Hi! I’m dumber than dog drool!…Not only did I post this moronic economic mumble…I approve of my message!!!!
libfreeorpee everyday, 2012 AM or PM

KOOLAID2 on August 3, 2012 at 10:42 AM

There were 5 sarc tags!

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I usually write sarc tags like this:

/sarc

and I don’t automatically assume a “/” is a sarc tag. But still, I was pretty sure you meant them to be sarc tags and I was just responging to the leftist argument anyway.

It’s all good.

ITguy on August 3, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The number of jobs for July is always “seasonally adjusted” which explains the positive number and the unemployment rate actually going up. At least that’s the way I read that article.

TarheelBen on August 3, 2012 at 10:43 AM

CNBC gives the report a pretty fair assessment, noting that the report also says that the number of working Americans actually dropped by 195,000:

CW on August 3, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I am giving up sarcasm.

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

..do NOT let doofii like me affect your efforts. I mean you sucked me in BIG TIME. Anyway, I was glad you pushed me to look for that link. It has a pretty good summary of the job creation picture over the last decade — in hard numbers.

:-D

Also that other link someone provided to the WaPo graphic was terrific and the graphic mind-numbingly expository of Obama’s economic failure.

The War Planner on August 3, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Ed Morrissey … Zerohedge has dug into this jobs report and finds the numbers are even worse than they indicate. He says “Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical “Jobs”” There is also a huge drop in jobs in the unadjusted number by 1,248,000. Yes over 1 million drop. I’m still trying to wrap my head around all the numbers because they don’t seem to add up. I think he’s saying that this job report is really cooked.

Everyone can read more here: Seasonal and birth death adjustments add 429,000 statistical – Zerohedge

Ronaldusmax on August 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The number of jobs for July is always “seasonally adjusted” which explains the positive number and the unemployment rate actually going up. At least that’s the way I read that article.

TarheelBen on August 3, 2012 at 10:43 AM

..also note the (P) on the BLS page. It means Preliminary, of course, and these are revised TWICE over the succeeding months until the final number is arrives at. (Or is that the GDP number?)

The War Planner on August 3, 2012 at 10:48 AM

The numbers will quickly be adjusted to include the (now) TWO job openings created thru the heroic efforts of the drive-thru-douchenozzle ..

/.

CaveatEmpty on August 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Don’t worry this will get glossed over by a breking report on Mitt Romney’s junior high school “peer group rating.”

Teacher in Tejas on August 3, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Using the labor force participation rate when Obama took office (65.7% vs. the current rate of 63.7%), the adjusted unemployment rate would actually be 11.1%.

steebo77 on August 3, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Don’t worry this will get glossed over by a breking report on Mitt Romney’s junior high school “peer group rating.”

Teacher in Tejas on August 3, 2012 at 10:52 AM

That and the Frowning Smiley face on his Kindergarten report card for
tying his shoes with the two bunny ear method.

CW on August 3, 2012 at 10:55 AM

The War Planner on August 3, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Thank you. I was starting to feel really guilty that some of you went to a lot of trouble to refute me when I already agreed with you- LOL! But like you said, it is good to have a response handy, and your post did that! I am going to start doing what IT Guy does, and use /sarc instead of just the slashes, because if I really had to give up sarcasm I wouldn’t be able to comment much at atll!

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:56 AM

The total number of employed persons actually dropped by 195,000 between June and July (from 142,415,000 to 142,220,000).

steebo77 on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Government workers still spend money in the economy, which helps other businesses. Conservtives often forget that…

libfreeordie on August 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

 
This is especially comical considering what you asked yesterday (in a thread you abandoned):
 

And for the record, dear rogerb why don’t you ever get any textual skin in the game, you seem content to cut and paste. Porque?

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:38 AM

 
From an earlier “textual skin in the game” thread you abandoned:
 

Like the drug war, we’ve embraced it as a solid corner of our fed/state/local financial foundations and neither our economy or our employment numbers can tolerate us solving the “problem”.

rogerb on February 5, 2012 at 12:42 PM

 

But why are those jobs worse for the economy than private sector jobs. Its not like the private sector actually produces anything in this country anymore. Its just a question of different types of service providers.

libfreeordie on February 5, 2012 at 12:48 PM

 
Put another way, we require a percent of our population to remain poor in order to support an economic system that has grown around the “problem.”

rogerb on February 5, 2012 at 1:02 PM

 
Crickets after that. This thread is likely abandoned as well. Can’t touch bottom anymore, can you?
 

you seem content to cut and paste. Porque?
 
libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:38 AM
 

you do have a tendency to abandon them once you can’t touch bottom, so too much effort isn’t warranted. FWIW, you’re not the only one.
 
rogerb on August 2, 2012 at 12:38 PM

rogerb on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Don’t worry this will get glossed over by a breking report on Mitt Romney’s junior high school “peer group rating.”

Teacher in Tejas on August 3, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Nope, this.

Porn star Jenna Jameson endorses Romney

Flora Duh on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The numbers will quickly be adjusted to include the (now) TWO job openings created thru the heroic efforts of the drive-thru-douchenozzle ..

/.

CaveatEmpty on August 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM

What happened?

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:58 AM

The total number of unemployed persons actually rose 45,000 between June and July (from 12,748,000 to 12,793,000).

steebo77 on August 3, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Nope, this.

Porn star Jenna Jameson endorses Romney

Flora Duh on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

LOL!- Romney can counter with the gay porn publisher that Obama has for a bundler.

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

unemployment ticks up to 8.3, and that’s a boost for Obama?

Slade73 on August 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM

sure wish I could Fail and get a boost

Slade73 on August 3, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Ronaldusmax on August 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The number of jobs created is more cooked than a Pew Poll. Ah well, I’m more worried about Ann Romney’s horse anyway. /

TarheelBen on August 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Honestly, I think this job report hurts Obama more in the long term than helps. Looking at the data they did some absurd fudging with seasonal adjustment, and my understanding is that they won’t be able to repeat that trick in the coming months.

More importantly however, the unemployment rate went up, and thats all a lot of casual observers pay attention to. The fact that we had a modest beat after a metric ton of number fudging is going to be lost on most people, they’ll see that the Unemployment rate was 8.2, and has now ticked up to 8.3.

WolvenOne on August 3, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Meanwhile the unemployment rate for ‘my people’ is 14.1%

Why do they hate black people?

CorporatePiggy on August 3, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Ed Morrissey … Zerohedge has dug into this jobs report and finds the numbers are even worse than they indicate. He says “Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical “Jobs”” There is also a huge drop in jobs in the unadjusted number by 1,248,000. Yes over 1 million drop. I’m still trying to wrap my head around all the numbers because they don’t seem to add up. I think he’s saying that this job report is really cooked.

Ronaldusmax on August 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It is all a shell game by the administration. To find the pea of truth, you have to look somewhere other than under the cups of official proclamations.

RobBert on August 3, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Porn star Jenna Jameson endorses Romney

Flora Duh on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

..free market capitalism at it’s most basic, Flo!

The War Planner on August 3, 2012 at 11:58 AM

I am going to start doing what IT Guy does, and use /sarc instead of just the slashes, because if I really had to give up sarcasm I wouldn’t be able to comment much at atll!

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:56 AM

..ITGuy (though I fought with him during the primaries), rogerb, Steebo, RWM, Flora, and so many here are excellent commenters AND VALUABLE RESOURCES when they post their comments laced with IRREFUTABLE FACTS and links.

Tangential: I grew weary of my (allegedly) conservative morning paper three years ago and cancelled my subscription. With HG — and the attendant analysis as well as Ace of Spades and Powerline and other constituents of the blogosphere, I never looked back. Dead tree media just plain sucks compared to — say — Ed Morrissey’s penetrating aggregation and analysis of economic figures and polls, etc. Rather than a source, these provide a jumping off point for folks to do their own investigation.

The War Planner on August 3, 2012 at 12:07 PM

They are only letting the reported unemployment rate creep up now to build up a little credibility before it miraculously drops by a percentage point in the last few months before the election.

agmartin on August 3, 2012 at 12:28 PM

What happened?

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:58 AM

From: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/02/official-chick-fil-a-statement-yesterday-was-an-unprecedented-day/

The only loser yesterday, besides many thousands of chickens, was this guy, who decided he not only needed to lecture a Chick-fil-A drive-through attendant, he had to record it too. That turned out to be a bad idea; as of this afternoon, he’s part of the 8.2 percent. Click the image to watch.

The 8.2 percent is now the 8.3 percent. And that guy lost both his job as CFO at a medical device manufacturer, as well as an adjunct professor position at a university.

Stupid move.

His karma ran over his dogma.

ITguy on August 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Attempting to make chicken salad out of chicken feces is not possible . . . at the very best this economy is in a chronic state of stagnation. So give it up CNN, NBC, CBS and all the other liberal rags.

rplat on August 3, 2012 at 1:02 PM

“Today’s increase in the unemployment rate is a hammer blow to struggling middle-class families,” Romney said in a statement.

More of this!

Professor_Chaos on August 3, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Teh SCOAMF can thank Ford and Chrysler for not shutting down their factories during the second week of July like they usually do. While we don’t know which establishments are part of the CES, I’ll lay dollars to donuts that every Ford and Chrysler plant that was not closed was included, while every GM plant that was was not included.

One more thing, the GM plants will make their return to the CES next month to allow another artificial inflation of the numbers.

Steve Eggleston on August 3, 2012 at 1:35 PM

It is all a shell game by the administration. To find the pea of truth, you have to look somewhere other than under the cups of official proclamations.

RobBert on August 3, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Specifically the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Unfortunately, we won’t have those numbers on a national basis until the end of January.

Prediction – the QCEW will have a 100K+ drop for July.

Steve Eggleston on August 3, 2012 at 1:42 PM

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to July, 2012:
.
.
January 2009:

Civilian non-institution population: 234.739m
Civilian labour force: 153.716m
Employed: 142.099m
Employment-population ratio: 61.3
Unemployed: 11.616m
Not in labour force: 81.023m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: 3.141m
Part-time, but want full-time job: 8.038m
Participation Rate: 65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed: 19.8
Unemployment rate: 7.6%
.
.
June 2012:

Civilian non-institutional population: 243.354m
Civilian labour force: 155.013m
Employed: 142.220m
Employment-population ratio: 58.4
Unemployed: 12.794m
Not in labour force: 88.340m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: 3.945m
Part-time, but want full-time job: 8.246m
Participation rate: 63.7%
Average Weeks Unemployed: 38.8
Unemployment rate: 8.3%
.
.
Percentage Change:

Civilian non-institutional population: +3.67 %
Civilian labour force: +0.844 %
Employed: +0.121%
Employment-population ratio: -4.731%
Unemployed: +10.141%
Not in labour force: +9.031%
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: +25.597%
Part-time, but want full-time job: +2.588%
Participation rate: -2.748%
Average Weeks Unemployed: +95.96%
Unemployment rate: +9.211%

Resist We Much on August 3, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Resist We Much on August 3, 2012 at 1:43 PM

“Our plan worked” – Barack Marx Obama

Steve Eggleston on August 3, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Did I just hear my radio right? President Obama just said RAISING TAXES would HELP unemployment?

Did he miss the report saying raising taxes would cost 700k jobs?

Wagthatdog on August 3, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Night Owl on August 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I got it, I asked a rhetorical question.

Wagthatdog on August 3, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Porn star Jenna Jameson endorses Romney

Flora Duh on August 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

She’s created more jobs than Obama.

Wagthatdog on August 3, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Just a thought I had earlier.

It looks like the consensus is that the reason these numbers look, “very,” modestly cheery, is because of an unrealistic seasonal adjustment.

Well, if this is the case, don’t they have to give those jobs back at some point? I mean, my understanding is that August isn’t traditionally a month with significant adjustment. So if that adjustment is removed in August, doesn’t the bottom-line unemployment rate tick up yet again?

WolvenOne on August 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

“Our plan worked” – Barack Marx Obama

Steve Eggleston on August 3, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Yep!

Obviously, that should be July not June. Sorry.

Resist We Much on August 3, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Obviously, that should be July not June. Sorry.

Resist We Much on August 3, 2012 at 2:15 PM

More than close enough for government work.

Who here wants to bet me on the 3rd-quarter QCEW numbers (to be released late-January 2013)?

Steve Eggleston on August 3, 2012 at 2:16 PM

you seem content to cut and paste. Porque?
 
libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:38 AM
 

You post, then cut and run, porque???

jimver on August 3, 2012 at 3:13 PM

We’re going down the tubes as a country and obama thinks this is good news. Obama becomes more pathetic every day.

jqc1970 on August 3, 2012 at 3:17 PM

(CNSNews.com) – There were 195,000 fewer people employed in the United States in July than in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as the national unemployment rate ticked up from 8.2 percent to 8.3 percent.

Meanwhile, 150,000 people simply dropped out of the labor force during the month and did not seek to find a job.

In June, according to BLS, there had been 142,415,000 people employed in the United States. In July, that dropped to 142,220,000–a decline of 195,000.

Similarly, in June, there were 155,163,000 people in the civilian labor force in the United States. To be counted in the civilian labor force, person must be 16 years old or older, not be in the military, prison or a mental institution, and either have a job or have actively looked for a job in the past four weeks.

In July, the number of people in the civilian labor force was 155,013,000–a decline of 150,000 from June.

VorDaj on August 3, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Read the details… The BLS “seasonally adjusted numbers” was 377,000. That is a manual adjustment made by the BLS to “change” the number… Then the birth/death rate number was 52,000. Compared to July of 2011 that was a 1000% increase. So, a total of 429,000 “jobs” were created out of thin air. The non-adjusted number is 163,000 – 429,000 = a loss of 266,000 jobs.

Oh, and the participation rate dropped again. Get it down another 5% and we will have reached utopia — 0% unemployment.

They can stick that hopium in their pipe and smoke it.

RasThavas on August 3, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Real unemployment is over 20%.

RasThavas on August 3, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Obama adviser: Jobless rate is really 8.254%

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/08/wh-adviser-jobless-rate-is-really-8254/1#.UBvx102PWjW

**eyeroll**

Resist We Much on August 3, 2012 at 2:14 PM

I can smell the desperation from here.

Hey, Barky, as long as we’re picking at the numbers, try 15%.

Oh, sorry… 14.954%

Gingotts on August 3, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Honestly, considering the unions are in for O’JugEars and a google of the plant shutdowns by GM show the following:
2008– Bloomberg notes GM/Ford?Chrysler are shutdown in Dec (hoping to uptick the Jan-Feb 2009 numbers for Obammy?)
2009– 11 week furloughs May-July
2010– No summer Furloughs
2011– 11 weeks shutdown
2012– GM managing 20 weeks of shutdowns throughout year for refitting manufaturing
2013– GM Plans 21 weeks for refitting for their ancient truck line

It appears the figures are being manipulated…

Jus’ sayin’

socalcon on August 3, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Well played jimver.

rogerb on August 3, 2012 at 6:26 PM

The Bureau of Labor Statistics gave some mildly good news for the first time in four months. The US economy added 163,000 jobs, slightly outpacing population growth, while the jobless rate ticked up slightly to 8.3%:

So even the manipulated official jobless rate goes up and the Stock Market goes up 200 plus…makes sense to me!/

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 4, 2012 at 6:59 AM

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