New Pew poll: Obama wins by 10 if Democrats lead in turnout this year by, um, 19 points

posted at 9:57 pm on August 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

Normally I give these polls with ridiculous samples the ol’ college try, but I’m not even going to bother with this. You’re welcome to it if you want to put in the time. The sample:

No need to boot up your computer’s calculator. That’s 43.5D/24.5R/32I, or D+19. The 2008 presidential exit poll, in a big blue year, was D+7. And yet, even here, we find this:

Nate Silver notes that Pew has been polling high for Obama all year and that registered voters tend to skew Democratic vis-a-vis likely voters. If you adjust for those effects, he thinks Obama’s actual lead here is around four points. Fair enough; that’s all I’ll give you from Pew. If you want more, hit the link. Instead, let me play contrarian by quoting from RCP expert Sean Trende’s latest piece playing off yesterday’s questionable Quinnipiac numbers. Hugh Hewitt did a superb job grilling Quinnipiac’s pollster about their sample today, but Trende argues that worrying about the partisan composition of samples is way overblown:

I say this, in part, because we’ve been having this debate for a very long time, and it usually goes nowhere. In 2004, re-weighting polls to reflect the 2000 exit polls was all the rage among Democratic bloggers. The argument went that Republicans hadn’t had parity with Democrats in polling in a very long time, so we should ignore polls showing Republicans even with Democrats, or perhaps even ahead of Democrats in terms of ID. Of course, the final exits showed a tie between the parties, as Republicans managed to turn out their base at “supercharged” levels.

Since then, the same thing has occurred in every election: The losing side objects to the partisan composition of polling. The polls then proceed to get the final result roughly correct…

In all three states polled, the RCP Averages (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) include at least one poll of likely voters from a nonpartisan source that is roughly consistent with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac result. They also include polls that are not consistent with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac result. Overall it looks like CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac’s system places it on the more pro-Democratic side of the “house effect scale,” but not outrageously so.

That Quinnipiac poll suddenly becomes very worrisome if a guy as sharp as Trende thinks there might be something to it. Similarly, read the e-mail Bill Kristol got from a friend “with an excellent track record of reading election trends.” He makes a simple point: While it’s true Romney’s even with Obama in the national polls, it’s not true that he’s even with him in the far more important swing-state polls. (Silver has a chart illustrating this, in fact.) His theory is that the Bain attacks are working — not nationally, where comparatively few people are seeing them, but in areas that are being bombarded with tens of millions of dollars in ads. Perhaps not coincidentally, just today Romney hired a PR person for the exclusive purpose of answering the Bain critiques. That’s not to say Romney can’t make up the difference — conservatives will be carpet-bombing the swing states with ads soon enough — but the idea that he might be behind right now by a small but significant margin where it counts isn’t necessarily liberal media bias at work.

Update: Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard e-mails to reassure me:

It’s one thing to give pollsters a wide berth, but D+8 in Ohio [in the Quinnipiac poll] is absurd. My general rule of thumb is that the historical average over the last 25 years is D+3.5. The best for the GOP was in 2004 (when it was even) and the worst was 2008 (when it was D+7). Anything over D+7 is just not defensible.

And one of the points, too, is that there is a difference between methodological soundness and inference. You can dot all the I’s and cross all the T’s as a pollster, but if you get a D+9 sample in Ohio, I’m sorry, that does not lend itself to a valid inference about November.

In other words, you don’t have to go so far as to argue that pollsters should weight by party ID, but you should be aware of what the spreads are and be very skeptical of anybody going as far as Pew (!) or even those CBS/NYT/Q polls are.


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They are blowing his trumpet to get the “On the fence” donors to get aboard a winning horse. It’s BS and part of the game to deflate the right. The guys never had a real job in his life and he sure as he** stuffed this one up !

Sandybourne on August 2, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Forbes disagrees…

Scott Walker Magically Turns Dismal Wisconsin Job Numbers Into A Pre-Election Miracle

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/15/scott-walker-magically-turns-dismal-wisconsin-job-numbers-into-a-pre-election-miracle/

With Wisconsin suffering the worst job loss numbers in the nation for the calendar year 2011, Governor Scott Walker promised yesterday that he will reveal newly revised numbers this week that will, effectively, change water into wine on the Wisconsin job front.

And he’s done it just in time for the June 5th recall election.

So, just how is Walker about to turn Wisconsin’s dismal job numbers from lemons to lemonade?

The Governor has simply decided to ignore the system used by the Department of Labor —and every other state in the nation —to measure job growth (or loss) and elected instead to go with a different set of numbers that makes things in Wisconsin look better.

Who knew it could be so easy to solve a jobs crisis?

stingray9813 on May 16, 2012 at 2:12 PM

I’ve never been more positive Obama is going to win.

stingray9813 on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

How’d that Scott Walker recall election turn out for ya champ?

MontanaMmmm on August 2, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Weak and ineffective gop nominee campaign……..déjà vu!!

Mitt ………jugular…..Obama, or you freaking lose.

Or is that just the plan?

To throw the election to the Marxist loving DOTUS to finish off the country?

So many traitors in both parties I can’t even keep track.

WHERE is George Washington?

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Two words. Jobs Report.

T.S.S. on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 PM

WHERE is George Washington?

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Mt. Vernon

Rio Linda Refugee on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 PM

That Quinnipiac poll suddenly becomes very worrisome if a guy as sharp as Trende thinks there might be something to it.

Oh BS… sharp in what?… Many of us can do the simple arithmetic and realize that this insane oversampling of democrats in the Quinnipac poll yesterday is the only thing that gives Obama the lead in Ohio and Florida… Period…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

You were able to figure that out because unlike Trende, you have a brain.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 PM

This Trende Turkey should have read AmericanThinker as they took this Quinnipiac “poll” completely apart. If Trende can not think properly for himself, he should learn from others who can.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Thanks for reminding me. Link…

Propaganda poll shows Obama ahead

Trende seems to have discounted or dismissed how the poll respondents said they voted in 2008.

For example, the Q poll respondents voted for Obama over McCain by 53% to 40% in 2008. And yet Obama only carried Florida by 2.8%.

How is this a representative sample?

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

NATE Silver is full of shit! The pew poll is D+19 and O is up 10. Romney wins Indies by 2..So they’re over sampling by 12 compared to 2008..If you made the ridiculous. Assumption that it’ll. Be D+7 again this year..that still puts Romney ahead in this poll. HOW DOES SILVER GET THE O +4 BS?

jaygatz33 on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

I understand what you are saying and they certainly can do this on a seperate column next to the polls they publish. But for them just to publish a poll without at least showing the Party ID breakdown in the poll is not right, not right at all….

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Yeah, I agree and figure RCP is a lost cause. I’m thinking of a model for a site that could be developed for ’14 and ’16 once RCP is discredited by showing a Obama+3 margin as Romney wins 53-46…

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Are you stupid? Ross Perot got Clinton elected. Don’t con me and say Mr 43% would have gotten a single Perot vote.

Lanceman on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Keep telling yourself that. Twist yourself silly trying to explain why a guy with the kind of economic numbers Obama is presiding over is even competitive at all, let alone leading in most polls.

Yes Perot hurt Bush more than Clinton. But without his “tax the rich” rhetoric Clinton wouldn’t have won even with Perot in the mix.

Polls say otherwise..

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Really?

It may be slightly less popular than 10, 20, 30 years ago-but it is still very popular…..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-10/cain-pulls-even-with-romney-on-economy-for-republican-supporters-in-poll.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/03/us-usa-taxes-poll-idUSTRE7022AK20110103

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/02/24/1879415/poll-tax-on-rich-liked-cuts-more.html

http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2012/04/23/do-fewer-americans-support-taxing-the-rich/

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

The Romney campaign has that rancid loser stench all over it now.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

You are a scared little coward. Yours tears will be sweet. LOL!

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Somehow, Obama is not acting like a confident man, is he?

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

“Good poll!” -ddrintn

Chuck Schick on August 2, 2012 at 10:49 PM

“Two words. Jobs Report.”

And if it comes in at 100,000, which is expected, then it’s a plus for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Somehow, Obama is not acting like a confident man, is he?

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Nope the trolls never have had a good poker face. heck of a tell. Funny!

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

All leads into the stolen election.

All the polls for the last 4 months had Obama leading by 10, it had to be voter suppression by the GOP, Kock brothers and Karl Rove to make it Romney by 15

tjexcite on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Yeah, I agree and figure RCP is a lost cause. I’m thinking of a model for a site that could be developed for ’14 and ’16 once RCP is discredited by showing a Obama+3 margin as Romney wins 53-46…

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Or, they will just tighten up in the end…even if you look at this poll Obama does not have a strong majority.

In truth is you average a bunch of crappy polls, you end up with a crappy average.

Like I said, pick a couple of reputable polls like Rasmussen and Gallup and stick with them.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:51 PM

How come Republicans are never oversampled in these biased polls?

OxyCon on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Nope the trolls never have had a good poker face. heck of a tell. Funny!

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

True.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 PM

As of January 2012, Gallup polled voters by self-identified party ID:
* Independents: 40%
* Democrats: 31%
* Republicans: 27%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151943/Record-High-Americans-Identify-Independents.aspx

bw222 on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 PM

And if it comes in at 100,000, which is expected, then it’s a plus for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Somewhere 1.5 and 2 million jobs have been destroyed by obama/reid/pelosi.

And you are coming with 100,000?

OMG 0_o

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:53 PM

You were able to figure that out because unlike Trende, you have a brain.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Thanks… I simply cannot understand how some on our side cannot see the simple numbers and what do they mean…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:53 PM

How come Republicans are never oversampled in these biased polls?

OxyCon on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 PM

I have looked at dozens of polls, and I think I saw Republicans with a 1 point advantage over Democrats maybe one time.

I have never seen them with a 19+ advantage.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:54 PM

OK, this explains it. I just found out that Baghdad Bob is still alive and is the new CEO of both quinnipiac and pew.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Mitt ………jugular…..Obama, or you freaking lose.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:46 PM

The political graveyard is filled with Gentlemen Candidates.

Bruno Strozek on August 2, 2012 at 10:55 PM

And if it comes in at 100,000, which is expected, then it’s a plus for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

What the hell planet do you live on? If things are looking so good…why is Obama trying to buy votes by promising to do away with the Clinton welfare reform? I sure don’t remember him making that campaign promise.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:57 PM

How did that stupid Europe trip work for you Mitt?

McCain 2, beautiful.

Nation screwed, gop whines, re-elect the same lame losers like Boehner and Cantor and McConnell.

Gop sucketh.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:51 PM

Indeed. PPP has always played the game of releasing stupid polls early then going honest shortly before the election to maintain some sort of favorable reputation. This has fallen off lately since partnering with Kos. The rest is just a case of garbage in garbage out… one can try to turn the numbers into something reasonable. RCP has tried that for about a decade… but eventually the narrative creators work around the fixes and find new ways to shift the numbers to their agenda.

Gallup and Ras have generally been okay. Marquette good in WI. Q was good too, but then they partnered with CBS/NYT – a shame… a little leaven leaveneth the whole lump. Never was going to make CBS/NYT worthwhile, just poisoned Quinnipiac instead.

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Okay, a few thoughts.

First off, I’m calling bullcrap on Sean Treand’s statement that people are looking too much into the party affiliation breakdown, particularly when it comes to that Quinnipiac Poll. Since 1984 the turnout for Dems has always been between 37% and 40% of the vote, typically within 3-4% of Republicans. So some skew is understandable, but, you cannot justify a skew anywhere as large as the ones Quinnipiac or Pew is suggesting without some sort of very real justification. We have a rough idea how various demographics are voting, and we have a reasonably good idea what the demographics are within any given state. Therefore, any new support for Obama has to come from one of only a small handful of groups, unless a pollster can at the very least identify the group the data is at the very least heavily suspect.

In addition

One of the questions asked in the Quinnipiac poll was, whom you voted for in 2008. That come out to, I believe about 13%+ Obama, roughly 10% higher than Obama actually won by in 2008. Oddly enough this IS a lot closer to what the New York Times predicted for Florida in 2008, so I think we KNOW what organization took the lead in this poll.

But, to summarize, we knowthis poll oversampled Obama supporters by at least ten percent based on the polls own data. Yet, in Florida, the same poll only gives Obama a +6% advantage. This strongly suggests that Obama may actually be in deep trouble in Florida.

As for the Pew poll, at +19% dems the data is useless. I don’t even think you can really re-weight the poll, with a skew like that the data’s just going to be all kinds of mangled.

WolvenOne on August 2, 2012 at 10:59 PM

OK, this explains it. I just found out that Baghdad Bob is still alive and is the new CEO of both quinnipiac and pew.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:55 PM

LOL… good one :)

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Raising taxes on the wealthy isn’t an election priority.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156347/Americans-Next-President-Prioritize-Jobs-Corruption.aspx

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:59 PM

That beyond stupid BS poll doesn’t just have dim + 19, it is almost 2 to 1 (813 dim to 459 rep or 1.7712418 to 1) weighted. Who would believe it other than a total moron.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

As of January 2012, Gallup polled voters by self-identified party ID:
* Independents: 40%
* Democrats: 31%
* Republicans: 27%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151943/Record-High-Americans-Identify-Independents.aspx

bw222 on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 PM

So for a poll to be accurate it should have at least D+4.

I would wonder if self-identified party ID varied from actual party membership? There are Republicans who are still card carrying members who consider themselves independents now and the same is found with the Democrats.

sharrukin on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

“Two words. Jobs Report.”

And if it comes in at 100,000, which is expected, then it’s a plus for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

To be revised down in a couple of weeks to 67,000…..

Barred on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

“Somewhere 1.5 and 2 million jobs have been destroyed by obama/reid/pelosi.

And you are coming with 100,000?

OMG 0_o”

Yeah, I think it will be spun as good news for Obama. The last crappy jobs report did no damage to him whatsoever.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

How did that stupid Europe trip work for you Mitt?

McCain 2, beautiful.

Nation screwed, gop whines, re-elect the same lame losers like Boehner and Cantor and McConnell.

Gop sucketh.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

You actually believe this poll?

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 11:01 PM

The Bush led self-castrated gop…..

Ever since “kinder, gentler” at the convention in 1988 the gop has been worthless.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 11:01 PM

“Somewhere 1.5 and 2 million jobs have been destroyed by obama/reid/pelosi.

And you are coming with 100,000?

OMG 0_o”

Yeah, I think it will be spun as good news for Obama. The last crappy jobs report did no damage to him whatsoever.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Drowning slowly is better than drowning fast in gumby’s world.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 11:02 PM

How did that stupid Europe trip work for you Mitt?

.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

It worked out quite well, too bad you fell hook, line and sinker for the LameStreamMedia’s talking points.

JPeterman on August 2, 2012 at 11:03 PM

God Allahpundit,

So you take the word of the guy who wildly oversampled Dems in his Q poll that his sample is fine? Seriously dude, are you dumb? it was HIS poll, of course he thinks it is fine.

And yes, polls get close to being right on election day because by election day they jettison the wild propaganda samples in favor of real numbers since they don’t want to be laughed at by missing my 9.

And you listen to Bill Kristol? Is there any hope for you at all?

If anything these polls should be oversampling Republicans because our enthusiasm is off the charts. These Dem oversamples or BS pure and simple.

mitchellvii on August 2, 2012 at 11:03 PM

“Somewhere 1.5 and 2 million jobs have been destroyed by obama/reid/pelosi.

And you are coming with 100,000?

OMG 0_o”

Yeah, I think it will be spun as good news for Obama. The last crappy jobs report did no damage to him whatsoever.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Really? Well, since you love polls, think of this..in every single poll people think Obama is doing a sucky job with the economy..and more and more people are blaming him rather than everyone else.

And he is underwater in most states…so don’t get too confident..if those numbers continue to tank, he might tank too..Of course he does have a fan club of idiots and a partisan and dishonest media acting as his propaganda wing..but it is not over yet..not even close.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:03 PM

Yeah, I think it will be spun as good news for Obama. The last crappy jobs report did no damage to him whatsoever.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

So in the race to the bottom you have chosen your horse.

A gay one at that.

May you suffer interminably in a (God Forbid) Obama second term.

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 11:04 PM

Gop sucketh.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Gop don’t publish oversampled “polls”. Care to tell us why this one had to be so dishonest?

Sigh, the PappyD60 Unit was much funnier.

Del Dolemonte on August 2, 2012 at 11:06 PM

How did that stupid Europe trip work for you Mitt?

.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

It worked out quite well, too bad you fell hook, line and sinker for the LameStreamMedia’s talking points.

JPeterman on August 2, 2012 at 11:03 PM

I thought so…but of course the media was on a mission to make things hard.

Like for instance, the shrieking about the Palestinians and culture from the left…you know I read something Bill Clinton wrote about how the Palestinian’s love of violence was making it impossible for them to build an economy. Imagine the reaction if Mitt Romney said that.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Gop sucketh.

PappyD61 on August 2, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Sometimes I think you are a moby. I really do.

They don’t suck half as much as all those people out there who say they want to get rid of Obama and yet seem to spend all their time and energy complaining about the GOP.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:09 PM

God Allahpundit,

So you take the word of the guy who wildly oversampled Dems in his Q poll that his sample is fine? Seriously dude, are you dumb? it was HIS poll, of course he thinks it is fine.

mitchellvii on August 2, 2012 at 11:03 PM

And it was HIS own poll? I missed that. Unbelievable. Beyond unbelievable. Maybe AP missed that too. I shutter for the state of his health otherwise.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Sometimes I think you are a moby. I really do.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:09 PM

You may be on to something. Whatever it is, it’s always complaining and it’s never happy.

JPeterman on August 2, 2012 at 11:13 PM

HOW DOES SILVER GET THE O +4 BS?

jaygatz33 on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Obama shill, terrified of being called a racist by the Obama Ministry of Propaganda, dependent on the welfare check delivered via the Obama Party Pravda also known as the New York Times.

The morning after the 2010 midterms he was trying to clean up the massive brown stain under his chair and insisted that the room smelled like roses.

northdallasthirty on August 2, 2012 at 11:14 PM

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Drowning slowly is better than drowning fast in gumby’s world.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Ask gumby about the other animated clay show his hero did. Davy and Goliath.

Guaranteed Bug Spray.

Del Dolemonte on August 2, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Can anyone explain to me how a state that is +9 Democratic is a ‘battleground’ state?

Freddy on August 2, 2012 at 11:17 PM

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Raising taxes on the wealthy isn’t an election priority.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156347/Americans-Next-President-Prioritize-Jobs-Corruption.aspx

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:59 PM

For that one poll I can show you many more that say differently. As I linked to above.

And does the Gallup poll you linked to really say differently?

A plurality say that raising taxes on the rich is either “extremely important” or “very important”. Hardly “unpopular”.

Notice too, that in the Gallup poll, the other “goals” that were deemed a “priority” by a larger group of people than “raising taxes on the rich” were vague policy aims like “creating jobs”, “setting high moral standards for the country” or “dealing with environmental concerns”, vague stuff that virtually everyone has a positive view toward; the question about “raising taxes on the rich” was really the only fairly specific policy item listed.

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Can anyone explain to me how a state that is +9 Democratic is a ‘battleground’ state?

Freddy on August 2, 2012 at 11:17 PM

It is when the poll saying that it’s a +9 is bunk.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 11:22 PM

Is it not clear that the Dem-media axis is trying to usurp the democratic process?

paul1149 on August 2, 2012 at 11:24 PM

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Quite right. And since tax policy is all Romney has to offer to voters, the numbers that say taxes are a low priority to voters is not good news for the GOP. We do know that raising taxes on the wealth is overwhelmingly popular. For the first time this election cycle I’m starting to get confident.

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:25 PM

They don’t suck half as much as all those people out there who say they want to get rid of Obama and yet seem to spend all their time and energy complaining about the GOP.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:09 PM

Yeah. Like how the GOP spends all their time and energy complaining about conservatives.

Spliff Menendez on August 2, 2012 at 11:26 PM

Quite right. And since tax policy is all Romney has to offer to voters, the numbers that say taxes are a low priority to voters is not good news for the GOP. We do know that raising taxes on the wealth is overwhelmingly popular. For the first time this election cycle I’m starting to get confident.

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:25 PM

He has got something else to offer them…he is not the incompetent job killing dummy in the White House.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:27 PM

Does everyone realize how badly Obama is losing in the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and now the Pew poll if you assume each candidate has his party sewn up and then normalize the results with a partisan weighting of say 2 points better for the Dems than 2010? And that is probably being generous given the reduction of Dem registered voters and their cratering enthusiasm to vote.

Bart DePalma on August 2, 2012 at 11:28 PM

To have samples this far off cannot be pulled with any other reason than to obtain a desired outcome for propaganda purposes.

CW on August 2, 2012 at 10:06 PM


Or as cover for currently planned voter fraud by Democrats on an unprecedented scale.

Like Rush says, there now lying to themselves.

newportmike on August 2, 2012 at 10:13 PM


Has anyone here ever known a liberal who did NOT spend at least the majority of their time lying to themself about EVERYTHING?

Nate Silver is a liberal fool and too overrated. I have no idea if this guy know even simple arithmetic… If you adjust the polls to match the 2010 elections then Romney leads by 7 points…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:14 PM

.
Back in 2004, RealClearPolitics was one hell of a website. Most people did not have a clue about its existence and they had virtually no advertising – ZIP. At 8:00 AM on Election Day, I predicted the final vote totals to within 0.1% on a global conference call based on the information on RCP.

Unfortunately, money corrupts and BIG internet advertising money corrupts ABSOLUTELY. The RCP site is now just a left of center aggregator of content.

Setting the meme to report about voter fraud when Barack loses, which will lead to riots and mass chaos.

SouthernGent on August 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM


Charles Blow just had a piece in the NYT today starting the propaganda on voter suppression
– a truly despicable piece claiming Pennsylvania has turned facist with their new laws and Florida is following suit. Translated: Democrats know they are going to get crucified and are already winding up their engines.

The polls are going to get more and more skewed the more desperate Obama gets. They wouldn’t be having to do samples like this if things were going Obama’s way.

Next poll will be D+25

gophergirl on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM


Easy answer, folks. Pay no attention to the polls.

Anything put out in the public eye is propaganda – including Fox News.

Remember last Thursday when the story was Dewhurst’s “internal polling” showed he was up by 5% ?

Would you pay the bill for that poll when it comes in?

No, me neither.

PolAgnostic on August 2, 2012 at 11:29 PM

Yeah. Like how the GOP spends all their time and energy complaining about conservatives.

Spliff Menendez on August 2, 2012 at 11:26 PM

No they do not..In fact, Ted Cruz is part of the GOP. Jim DeMint is part of the GOP.

Some people just like to feel as if they are being abused in some way.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:29 PM

tax policy is all Romney has to offer to voters

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:25 PM

What does O’bama have to offer? Other than his dismal “record”, that is?

Seems to me if he could campaign on what he’s “accomplished”, he wouldn’t be reduced to this sad state of affairs, having one of his Media Fluffers do a Fake Poll.

Del Dolemonte on August 2, 2012 at 11:33 PM

A plurality say that raising taxes on the rich is either “extremely important” or “very important”. Hardly “unpopular”.

Notice too, that in the Gallup poll, the other “goals” that were deemed a “priority” by a larger group of people than “raising taxes on the rich” were vague policy aims like “creating jobs”, “setting high moral standards for the country” or “dealing with environmental concerns”, vague stuff that virtually everyone has a positive view toward; the question about “raising taxes on the rich” was really the only fairly specific policy item listed.

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Believe it or not a lot of people are okay with raising taxes on someone else.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:33 PM

For the first time this election cycle I’m starting to get confident.

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Back to spread more of your lies?

You aren’t even ashamed of all the lies you got caught spreading yesterday.

cozmo on August 2, 2012 at 11:35 PM

You were able to figure that out because unlike Trende, you have a brain.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 PM


Unlike Trende, he is not having his salary anonymously augmented for staying on a set of talking points.

.
.
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It used to be the slush funds were measured in the millions.
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Then in the tens of millions (Nixon 1972)
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Then in the hundreds of millions.
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Then they passed a billion.
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Last week, Treasury Secretary Geithner and Federals Reserve Chairman Bernanke both acknowledged they knew the Libor rate was being gamed by the banks back in 2008 – that number affects hundreds of TRILLIONS of dollars … EACH YEAR.

Did I miss where anyone in the Senate or the House called for a Special Prosecutor and their immediate resignations ???

No, I didn’t think so.

PolAgnostic on August 2, 2012 at 11:37 PM

State Media™

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:01 PM

…there is no free press any longer…we just have to hope the new media gets stronger.

KOOLAID2 on August 2, 2012 at 11:39 PM

Sometimes I think you are a moby. I really do.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:09 PM

You may be on to something. Whatever it is, it’s always complaining and it’s never happy.

JPeterman on August 2, 2012 at 11:13 PM

.
I thought the reason most people on here never responded to his posts was because they already knew he was a moby.

PolAgnostic on August 2, 2012 at 11:42 PM

I’ve never been more positive Obama is going to win.

stingray9813 on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

For the first time this election cycle I’m starting to get confident.

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Hmmmm….talking points?

MontanaMmmm on August 2, 2012 at 11:44 PM

It’s my considered conclusion that since the RCP average from June 28- July 24 was moving toward Romney pulling ahead of the PutzOTUS in the next couple of weeks that the pollsters who are really liberal propagandists willfully released totally doctored polls just to keep Obozo ahead in the RCP average.

rocksandbroncs on August 2, 2012 at 11:45 PM

“Two words. Jobs Report.”

And if it comes in at 100,000, which is expected, then it’s a plus for Obama.

You do realize that we need 150,000 jobs monthly just to keep pace with population growth, right? So your “plus for Obama” puts us another 50,000 jobs in the whole. And this is in what should be a recovery, when jobs get generated by the bushel (see Reagan, Ronald, for what a recovery jobs report should look like) This is success? I shudder to think at what a failure is.

Obama 2012: Defining Success Downward One Job at a Time

FuzzyLogic on August 2, 2012 at 11:53 PM

“Good poll!” -ddrintn

Chuck Schick on August 2, 2012 at 10:49 PM

That one’s a nutter extraordinaire.

CW on August 3, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Hmmmm….talking points?

MontanaMmmm on August 2, 2012 at 11:44 PM

I hear some heels clicking.

CW on August 3, 2012 at 12:01 AM

plurality say that raising taxes on the rich is either “extremely important” or “very important”. Hardly “unpopular”.

Notice too, that in the Gallup poll, the other “goals” that were deemed a “priority” by a larger group of people than “raising taxes on the rich” were vague policy aims like “creating jobs”, “setting high moral standards for the country” or “dealing with environmental concerns”, vague stuff that virtually everyone has a positive view toward; the question about “raising taxes on the rich” was really the only fairly specific policy item listed.

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Believe it or not a lot of people are okay with raising taxes on someone else.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:33 PM

Yup. That’s what I’m saying. It may not be an economically wise thing to do-but it is popular.

What I am saying-this policy stance, along with the fact that the stock market is doing OK (for now), are the only things keeping the Obama campaign afloat.

Yet, if Romney loses, no one will blame his stance on taxes-it will be blamed on the candidate himself, and/or on Republican stances on other policy matters, especially social issues. Which will be nonsense, but there you have it.

Sometimes, the smart thing to do is give people what they want in one area, so you can get the rest of what you want in other policy matters.

Dreadnought on August 3, 2012 at 12:05 AM

For the first time this election cycle I’m starting to get confident.
libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Wasn’t this fool decrying the ills of crony capitalism on the Amazon sales tax thread? Yet he supports the biggest crony of them all…Obama.

Amazing how unaware liberals are of their own behavior.

jawkneemusic on August 3, 2012 at 12:06 AM

Mitt didn’t do anything “gaffetastic” that I could tell…..but……they didn’t refute the days of media spin.

That means it was a loser.

Please I know a poll with this kind of sampling is crapola. I’ll believe a 2010 sample breakdown of likely voters. I do think the swing state polls have consistently been showing the DOTUS up by 4-6 points. And THAT AIN’T GOOD.

Romney has So much material if he would not play Bush 4th term nicey nice……. But he’s not playing for the political kill like he did with the gop field and THAT AIN’T GOOD.

We need a TEANAMI 2………but that wave has to have someone at the crest.

PappyD61 on August 3, 2012 at 12:08 AM

Stack those polls! Tote that barge!

The more Barack Hussein Obama’s lapdogs stack the polls — the farther they will fall at terminal velocity before they face-plant into planet earth.

So keep on stacking ‘em!

FlatFoot on August 3, 2012 at 12:18 AM

He has got something else to offer them…he is not the incompetent job killing dummy in the White House.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:27 PM

The people who are persuaded by the pure Obama hatred are already baked into the cake and there are a lot of you, but there aren’t enough. Romney will have to come up with some actual ideas eventually. And when he gets specific this election isn’t going to be close any longer, nothing Romney wants to do polls well on these issue polls. Anti-Obama isn’t enough.

libfreeordie on August 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

With a D+19 Obama could only get 51% of the vote? He got more than that in 2008 with a D+7. My view is Obama is in deep doo doo.

Capitalist Infidel on August 3, 2012 at 12:31 AM

Hugh Hewitt just cracks me up….

“…eight point in Ohio? I’m from Ohio. Democrats haven’t had an eight point advantage in Ohio since before the Civil War. I mean, that just never happens…”

socalcon on August 3, 2012 at 12:47 AM

Pew is pepe for Democrats. Below is the party turnout for the last 5 Presidential elections, aswell as the last 2 mid term elections.

1992—-DEM-38—-REP-35
1996—-DEM-39—-REP-35
2000—-DEM-37—-REP-37
2004—-DEM-37—-REP-37
2006—-DEM-39—-REP-35
2008—-DEM-39—-REP-32
2010—-DEM-35—-REP-35

KMav on August 3, 2012 at 12:47 AM

I don’t think I’d vote for this guy even if I were a diehard Democrat…especially if I were unemployed or a business owner.

If he had an R behind his name and he was doing the same junk, I’d either stay home, or vote for a third party (mmmmaybe a Blue Dog Democrat if he/she had their act together).

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 3, 2012 at 12:50 AM

Gop don’t publish oversampled “polls”. Care to tell us why this one had to be so dishonest?

Sigh, the PappyD60 Unit was much funnier.

Del Dolemonte on August 2, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Or sober.

kim roy on August 3, 2012 at 12:59 AM

How come Republicans are never oversampled in these biased polls?
OxyCon on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 PM

A) Most of us have jobs, and
B) A lot of those are REAL jobs, so it’s not exactly a head-swelling novelty when someone asks our opinion about something.

Personally, I was only called by a pollster once – years ago, when I still had a landline phone. The guy actually argued with me because he didn’t like one of the answers I gave, so a hung up.

logis on August 3, 2012 at 1:02 AM

The people who are persuaded by the pure Obama hatred are already baked into the cake and there are a lot of you, but there aren’t enough. Romney will have to come up with some actual ideas eventually. And when he gets specific this election isn’t going to be close any longer, nothing Romney wants to do polls well on these issue polls. Anti-Obama isn’t enough.
libfreeordie on August 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

You can completely interchange Obama and Romney everywhere in your quote and it’s just as true.

BTW- didn’t you quit Hot Air after a purse-throwing rage a few weeks back?

Chuck Schick on August 3, 2012 at 1:32 AM

Way too much emphasis is placed on polls that are done more than 30 days out from election. Polls this far out are nothing more than fodder for political geeks and even trying to gleen trends is very dangerous. We should treat polls the way we treat Tropical Storm and Hurricane path forecasts. In fact, maybe someone should come up with a “conical image” showing the % hit very similar to this for Tropical Storm Ernesto.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025155.shtml?tswind120#contents

Tripping-on-US on August 3, 2012 at 1:41 AM

Let’s just state reality – Obama is now trailing nationally on the popular vote – there are no credible polls suggesting anything else. These recent national polls are a joke – Jay Cost is the gold standard, and I don’t hear Silver saying anything else.

Obama’s Bain bombing in swing states has stopped Romney’s charge in them, which had been substantial, it has perhaps even pushed it slightly to Obama in them.

The question is only whether Romney’s return volley pushes the needle again, after which Obama really has nothing, absent some crazy event no one can plan for.

Obama has now done all he can do to make the case for himself and he is at the highpoint of his electoral strength, whether it will be enough is the question – and the only one to answer that will be Romney – Obama will get no economic help, in fact it will start to drag on him a little.

Zomcon JEM on August 3, 2012 at 2:51 AM

Harry Reid smell likes prison sex…

… So I’ve been told.

Seven Percent Solution on August 3, 2012 at 3:29 AM

KMav on August 3, 2012 at 12:47 AM

Huh, 2010′s breakdown is interesting. Especially for a mid-term those are very low numbers for Dems/Reps. Presumably the rest are independents, which tells you just how badly thrashed the reputations of both political parties have been in the past six years.

Makes me wonder if all pollsters are wrong this time, and should instead be giving independents the biggest chunk of the party breakdown.

hmmm…

WolvenOne on August 3, 2012 at 3:37 AM

Normally I give these polls with ridiculous samples the ol’ college try,

Understatement of the year!

winston on August 3, 2012 at 6:02 AM

I am sure the folks at Pew would be more than happy to explain their methodology to interested parties. According to their webste their main number is 202-419-4300. After all a polling organization that isn’t even trying to provide accurate results and is instead trying to set up a mood of inevitability of the reelection of obama might as well just shut doors. Surely they wouldn’t be doing that…. Why that would be unethical. They MUST be privy to some tetonic shift in demographics we know nothing about!?!

Caseoftheblues on August 3, 2012 at 6:06 AM

ANOTHER worthless poll…

Khun Joe on August 3, 2012 at 6:50 AM

Two words. Jobs Report.

T.S.S. on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 PM

oh yeah…they’ll get the bad numbers and then say but hey dear leader is still beating mitt in the polls…

cmsinaz on August 3, 2012 at 7:03 AM

oh yeah…they’ll get the bad numbers and then say but hey dear leader is still beating mitt in the polls…

cmsinaz on August 3, 2012 at 7:03 AM

An Obamabot already said that very thing,right on this thread. They seem to think people do not care about the economy.

The only reason the economy is not hurting Obama more, is that so many people have become dependent on government largesse. They know things suck,but they want to keep the checks coming.

Sad.

Terrye on August 3, 2012 at 7:20 AM

Sad.

Terrye on August 3, 2012 at 7:20 AM

indeed….thanks for catching it here…im sure we’ll hear it again ad nauseum today from the lsm as well…

cmsinaz on August 3, 2012 at 7:26 AM

My Uncle Joe had it right way back when… talking about the lovely positive polls for Carter in the lead-up to the 1980 election: ‘Figures don’t lie. But liars sure can figure.’

I have seen this all before and the polling companies, the MFM and the Left are all doing the exact, same thing that happened in 1980. Pretty much at the same time, as well. And still, after that epic fail, they repeat the experiment and expect to get different results. Insane.

ajacksonian on August 3, 2012 at 7:40 AM

Believe it or not a lot of people are okay with raising taxes on someone else.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 11:33 PM

One of the less admirable features of human nature… If the government needs more money its okay to tax people that make more than I do, but don’t tax me more.

farsighted on August 3, 2012 at 9:01 AM

The even more damning aspect to the NYT/Q poll was this question – who did you vote for in 2008?

Florida:
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

In the actual election, Obama won by 3%. It was a D+10% over sampling, assuming that turnout mirrors 2008!

This poll also had Bill Neoson up 7 points, +5% more than the PPP poll.

Seriously, WTF?

johnboy on August 3, 2012 at 9:26 AM

ANY poll that doesn’t include Governor Gary Johnson is skewed.

BTW, the GOP ‘Victory Centers’ remain under staffed. McCain had more volunteers than Willard has today, and no one has one good reason for voting for him.

DannoJyd on August 3, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Allah always looking for a way to yell the sky is falling on these BS polls.

The Dems are demoralized and conservatives are even running down and replacing RINO’s.

Do you really think they are going to be D+19?

brainpimp on August 3, 2012 at 9:47 AM

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