New Pew poll: Obama wins by 10 if Democrats lead in turnout this year by, um, 19 points

posted at 9:57 pm on August 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

Normally I give these polls with ridiculous samples the ol’ college try, but I’m not even going to bother with this. You’re welcome to it if you want to put in the time. The sample:

No need to boot up your computer’s calculator. That’s 43.5D/24.5R/32I, or D+19. The 2008 presidential exit poll, in a big blue year, was D+7. And yet, even here, we find this:

Nate Silver notes that Pew has been polling high for Obama all year and that registered voters tend to skew Democratic vis-a-vis likely voters. If you adjust for those effects, he thinks Obama’s actual lead here is around four points. Fair enough; that’s all I’ll give you from Pew. If you want more, hit the link. Instead, let me play contrarian by quoting from RCP expert Sean Trende’s latest piece playing off yesterday’s questionable Quinnipiac numbers. Hugh Hewitt did a superb job grilling Quinnipiac’s pollster about their sample today, but Trende argues that worrying about the partisan composition of samples is way overblown:

I say this, in part, because we’ve been having this debate for a very long time, and it usually goes nowhere. In 2004, re-weighting polls to reflect the 2000 exit polls was all the rage among Democratic bloggers. The argument went that Republicans hadn’t had parity with Democrats in polling in a very long time, so we should ignore polls showing Republicans even with Democrats, or perhaps even ahead of Democrats in terms of ID. Of course, the final exits showed a tie between the parties, as Republicans managed to turn out their base at “supercharged” levels.

Since then, the same thing has occurred in every election: The losing side objects to the partisan composition of polling. The polls then proceed to get the final result roughly correct…

In all three states polled, the RCP Averages (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) include at least one poll of likely voters from a nonpartisan source that is roughly consistent with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac result. They also include polls that are not consistent with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac result. Overall it looks like CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac’s system places it on the more pro-Democratic side of the “house effect scale,” but not outrageously so.

That Quinnipiac poll suddenly becomes very worrisome if a guy as sharp as Trende thinks there might be something to it. Similarly, read the e-mail Bill Kristol got from a friend “with an excellent track record of reading election trends.” He makes a simple point: While it’s true Romney’s even with Obama in the national polls, it’s not true that he’s even with him in the far more important swing-state polls. (Silver has a chart illustrating this, in fact.) His theory is that the Bain attacks are working — not nationally, where comparatively few people are seeing them, but in areas that are being bombarded with tens of millions of dollars in ads. Perhaps not coincidentally, just today Romney hired a PR person for the exclusive purpose of answering the Bain critiques. That’s not to say Romney can’t make up the difference — conservatives will be carpet-bombing the swing states with ads soon enough — but the idea that he might be behind right now by a small but significant margin where it counts isn’t necessarily liberal media bias at work.

Update: Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard e-mails to reassure me:

It’s one thing to give pollsters a wide berth, but D+8 in Ohio [in the Quinnipiac poll] is absurd. My general rule of thumb is that the historical average over the last 25 years is D+3.5. The best for the GOP was in 2004 (when it was even) and the worst was 2008 (when it was D+7). Anything over D+7 is just not defensible.

And one of the points, too, is that there is a difference between methodological soundness and inference. You can dot all the I’s and cross all the T’s as a pollster, but if you get a D+9 sample in Ohio, I’m sorry, that does not lend itself to a valid inference about November.

In other words, you don’t have to go so far as to argue that pollsters should weight by party ID, but you should be aware of what the spreads are and be very skeptical of anybody going as far as Pew (!) or even those CBS/NYT/Q polls are.


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Nov 6, not sooner, Schadenfreude pure!

Schadenfreude on August 2, 2012 at 9:59 PM

That picture is creepy.

Schadenfreude on August 2, 2012 at 9:59 PM

No bias. None.

CW on August 2, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Well, I guess that’s it then. We’re screwed.

cynccook on August 2, 2012 at 10:00 PM

That picture is creepy.

Schadenfreude on August 2, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Obama or Reid? Both?

CW on August 2, 2012 at 10:00 PM

Right, because Bill Krystol is really behind Romney. So we should care about the anonymous emails that he gets? Right, sure. We’ll file that under truly important wisdom.

SuperBunny on August 2, 2012 at 10:01 PM

State Media™

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Terrific Winners! 2012!

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:01 PM

The only reason polls lean towards Barky is because they sample more D’s than anyone else…it’s the only way it looks like he is still a viable candidate.

ccrosby on August 2, 2012 at 10:02 PM

‘Splain it to me again, Lucy.

minnesoter on August 2, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Dang. Guess I’ll just stay home then. Thanks, Pew Research!

gaius on August 2, 2012 at 10:03 PM

This is just ridiculous. I mean really. I am not saying that Romney is actually ahead or that the Bain attacks have not had any effect, but at the same time there is too much difference…if they were having all that much effect we would see more difference in the national polls.

Well, there are months of these polls ahead…and in the end we will all find out how accurate the polling really is.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:03 PM

It’s gettin’ to be ri-goddamn-diculous.

Mark1971 on August 2, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Obama wins among Democrats…
Nothing to see….

Electrongod on August 2, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Well, there are months of these polls ahead…and in the end we will all find out how accurate the polling really is.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:03 PM

One problem is that these polls are done this way for a reason. They must think they will depress the Romney vote or make the average Joe think he is a loser and far too many want to ride with the winner…you know like Americas Team. To have samples this far off cannot be pulled with any other reason than to obtain a desired outcome for propaganda purposes.

CW on August 2, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Might as well take a poll at the DNC convention…

Electrongod on August 2, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Bradley Effect.

JPeterman on August 2, 2012 at 10:06 PM

I’m probably not going to see any Presidential ads at all here in California. Obama knows he doesn’t need to spend any money here and Romney isn’t going to waste it.

There is, however, ONE market that might be receptive and that is San Jose. The theme would be “responsible government”. People in that area of the state are tired of the stupid spending. The city voted to change the city pension plan because of idiotic spending. San Jose tends to be more pragmatic and Jerry Brown’s tax hike initiative isn’t playing well there either.

San Jose is the third largest city in the state. Between SJ and San Diego, it might be possible to do very well. Probably not enough to win the state, but enough to make it more competitive than it might otherwise seem.

crosspatch on August 2, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Romney is losing. He better step up his game.

ronval912 on August 2, 2012 at 10:07 PM

No, that’s not weighted toward the Dems. Not at all. Le skunk le pew!

Philly on August 2, 2012 at 10:08 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!

That explains all those obama stickers I’ve been seeing.

Wait!

Lanceman on August 2, 2012 at 10:08 PM

New Pew poll: Obama wins by 10 if Democrats lead in turnout this year by, um, 19 points

More accurately he barely gets 51% of the vote if turnout is D +19.

NotCoach on August 2, 2012 at 10:09 PM

Que the pants wetting and hand wringers.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:09 PM

It’s all those newly grateful small business owners skewing the poll…

/

M240H on August 2, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Where was the Bradley effect in 08?

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Maybe they polled the housepets and undead who are registered (D).

Abelard on August 2, 2012 at 10:10 PM

By November the bootlicking media jackalopes will be breathlessly reporting that Barky is ahead by 100% after polling the Axelrod and Jarrett families.

Bishop on August 2, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Follow Obama

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Must have happened during the Great Stimulus.

Electrongod on August 2, 2012 at 10:11 PM

I have a simple problem with Trende’s argument, however,

If you have one drastically skewed poll in those battleground states (like the Q poll yesterday), that could significantly skew the numbers alone. Furthermore, we have had several badly skewed polls, not just one. So if we are taking an average of badly skewed polls…what good is it?

The problem is that unless you do a meta-analysis, and truly project out the likely partisan breakdown in November, your error rate can go from +/- 4 points to easily +/- 8 points…in which case the lead is irrelevant.

neoavatara on August 2, 2012 at 10:11 PM

Like Rush says, there now lying to themselves.

newportmike on August 2, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Nate Silver notes that Pew has been polling high for Obama all year and that registered voters tend to skew Democratic vis-a-vis likely voters. If you adjust for those effects, he thinks Obama’s actual lead here is around four points

Nate Silver is a liberal fool and too overrated. I have no idea if this guy know even simple arithmetic… If you adjust the polls to match the 2010 elections then Romney leads by 7 points…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:14 PM

One problem is that these polls are done this way for a reason. They must think they will depress the Romney vote or make the average Joe think he is a loser and far too many want to ride with the winner…you know like Americas Team. To have samples this far off cannot be pulled with any other reason than to obtain a desired outcome for propaganda purposes.

CW on August 2, 2012 at 10:06 PM

They probably want to make Obama look like a winner, because they think undecideds will go with the winner…but at the same time, it can also make some lazy Democrats complacent. They might think they don’t need to bother to vote..they got this all wrapped up.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:15 PM

The LSM polls are just flying off further and further into Unicorn Fart land to keep Obama looking competitive.

He isn’t.

He lost this election over a YEAR ago because of the economy.

Romney will win by 9PM Eastern.

wildcat72 on August 2, 2012 at 10:16 PM

My question is why does not Real Clear Politics put the party ID sample next to each poll the publish…
I do not know if Ed and any of the writers here know the managment at Real Clear Politics and suggest this to them…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:16 PM

I’m sure Romney has some work to do in swing states like Ohio and Florida.

No one said this would be easy.

But does anyone seriously think Obama could do better in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania than he did in 2008, as the CBS/NYT/Quinipiac poll indicates?

If that is the case, then the election and the Republic are lost. Make your future plans accordingly.

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Trend’s whole column addressed the very issue of oversampling, and that’s it’s more an issue of how questions are worded. So the person may call themselves a Dem in the poll, because at that moment, they see themselves as more aligned with Dems, but their actual voting history makes them an independent.

Hey, look, some of use have been saying for months that Barry is burying Romney in swing states, and these vaunted SuperPacs aren’t helping squat.

I know Team Romney likes to come across with some mater rollout – Veep, Convention, debates – but that’s a national plan.

I can attest from family involved in one of the major swing states, the ground game leaves a lot to be desired. The fish rots from the head down, and Fehrnstrom’s weak-ass response to Reid spoke volumes to me, today.

budfox on August 2, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Everyone keeps saying we’ll pick it up because Romney hasn’t’ spent his $$ yet, but haven’t the PACs been spending a lot. Shouldn’t we worry that they’re not moving the needle?

RizzyG on August 2, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Oh man. Who was it a couple of weeks ago that asked in the comments when someone would release polling with a D+20 sample?

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Setting the meme to report about voter fraud when Barack loses, which will lead to riots and mass chaos.

SouthernGent on August 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM

More accurately he barely gets 51% of the vote if turnout is D +19.

NotCoach on August 2, 2012 at 10:09 PM

I noticed that too…43.5% of the respondents were Democrats and he only got 51%…and Independents outnumber Republicans in the poll.

So, he is losing Independents and Republicans {of course}…There is no way that Democrats are almost half the population.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Well, there are months of these polls ahead…and in the end we will all find out how accurate the polling really is.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Think 2004 and how the MSM tried to batter us into submission with all the polls showing Kerry in the lead right up to the end. Honest polling can be a very useful measuring device, but remember, with the MSM as the popular-cultural gatekeeper, we live in an age of lies. Just look at Obama, all he does is lie. He uses words like they’re candy sprinkles. Word meanings mean nothing to him. Logical, substantive argumentation means nothing to him (and therefore to his water carriers on NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, the NYT, the AP, NPR, PBS, etc.). He just says the words. And his propagandists just say the words.

But you know what? I think the voting public is catching on to it. And I know for positive that the anti-Obama constituency is very strong and highly motivated.

So bring on the polls. And I have no doubt that the “exit polls” will give Obama a comfortable lead on election day, right up to the moment that Chris Matthews breaks into shuddering sobs on admitting that his boy is history.

minnesoter on August 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Pew jumped the shark. RCP should retire it, but they won’t.

22044 on August 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Based on the stated political affiliation of those around me, there aren’t 19% of the voting population who are still Democrats. 2010 was not a fluke and the fallout has only increased.

RobBert on August 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

I can attest from family involved in one of the major swing states, the ground game leaves a lot to be desired. The fish rots from the head down, and Fehrnstrom’s weak-ass response to Reid spoke volumes to me, today.

budfox on August 2, 2012 at 10:17 PM

I did not think it was weak.

Listen, we have months to go and dozens of polls and anything can happen.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Bloomberg also released a poll today that shows Obama up 13 pts and the partisan split was only Dems +5.

None of the trend lines are good for Romney. His campaign is taking on water and he’ll be in Bob Dole territory soon.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Pew jumped the shark. RCP should retire it, but they won’t.

22044 on August 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

They put it in the average..and Obama is +3 now. That gives you some idea as to what an outlier it is.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

“Listen, we have months to go and dozens of polls and anything can happen.”

The Dole campaign said the same thing in 96. Once you’re defined by the opposition, the election is history. Dole didn’t respond effectively and neither did Romney to the Bain attacks, which air nonstop in the swing states.

The Romney campaign has that rancid loser stench all over it now.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Hey, look, some of use have been saying for months that Barry is burying Romney in swing states, and these vaunted SuperPacs aren’t helping squat.

And you are making this stupid assumption based on what exactly? Let me guess, based on polls with insane oversampling of democrats…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

For you nervous nellies out there:

obaka won by approximately 9.5 million votes over McLame.

7.2 million or so of those new votes came from CA, NY and IL.

obaka wins those three regardless.

YOU do the math.

Lanceman on August 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Bloomberg also released a poll today that shows Obama up 13 pts and the partisan split was only Dems +5.

None of the trend lines are good for Romney. His campaign is taking on water and he’ll be in Bob Dole territory soon.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

In your dreams, troll.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Pew jumped the shark. RCP should retire it, but they won’t.

22044 on August 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

It is basic journalism obligation that Real Clear Politics publishes the Party ID breakdown in each poll they post on their website and also publishes the Party ID breakdown in the average poll they publish… It is not that complicated…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Similarly, read the e-mail Bill Kristol got from a friend “with an excellent track record of reading election trends.” He makes a simple point: While it’s true Romney’s even with Obama in the national polls, it’s not true that he’s even with him in the far more important swing-state polls.

And what are we basing that on? Swing state polls with equally unreliable samples as the national polls? I’m gonna go with what I can see with my own two eyes. The Democrat Party has lost nearly every major election from 2009 onward, even in places the GOP never should’ve had a prayer like MassachusettEs with Scott Brown and in Anthony Weiner’s district. Hundreds of thousands of people descended upon DC for a Tea Party rally. Hundreds of thousands more also made the trek to DC for a Glenn Beck event that I’ll wager most of them didn’t even clearly understand the purpose of. Hundreds of thousands frequented Chick-Fil-A’s yesterday for an appreciation day that was organized(and even that word is an exaggeration) virtually overnight.

And it’s not just these rallies and elections. Ratings and circulation for mainstream media outlets are in the toilet. Talk radio, FoxNews, and the blogosphere are dominating. Glenn Beck’s TV station is doing ok while Oprah’s is tanking. OWS fizzled. Folks, the momentum is entirely on our side. It ain’t even close. Who cares if the Democrat/media complex refuses to acknowledge it? Like we even needed them in the first place to reach the point we find ourselves at? Let them continue their decent into ratings hell, irrelevancy, and eventually bankruptcy. I’m focused on November 6 which is now a mere 3 months and 4 days away. And based on everything I’ve witnessed in the last 3 1/2 years, I have no doubt Mitt Romney will not only win the Presidency, but that it’s gonna be called for him before we even get to the polls closing in the Mountain Time Zone.

Doughboy on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

I’ve never been more positive Obama is going to win.

stingray9813 on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

In other words, you don’t have to go so far as to argue that pollsters should weight by party ID, but you should be aware of what the spreads are and be very skeptical of anybody going as far as Pew (!) or even those CBS/NYT/Q polls are.

I don’t understand this.

If you aren’t going to control party identification, are you going to just work the method, compile the results, and if the party identification is so skewed that it makes the poll completely worthless in every way, throw away the poll and try again? Rinse and repeat, until the Universe hands you a sample that might make the results meaningful?

– Or do you just publish the results as if they mean something. I put a period there. No question mark.

Axe on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Also, what bloomberg poll? They didn’t release any poll today.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

They put it in the average..and Obama is +3 now. That gives you some idea as to what an outlier it is.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

These polls are embarrassing… only meant to shift the RCP average… made the whole thing a joke… garbage in and garbage out and all that.

I’ve gone on this rant often enough already. I wonder how many poll averaging sites and models will spawn after RCP is embarrassed in these elections.

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

The Dole campaign said the same thing in 96. Once you’re defined by the opposition, the election is history. Dole didn’t respond effectively and neither did Romney to the Bain attacks, which air nonstop in the swing states.

The Romney campaign has that rancid loser stench all over it now.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Well, then let’s just cancel the election and make Obama king…why even bother voting at all?

I do not know what is going to happen in November..and neither do you.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

When is people going to realize that these skewed polls are for the benefit of propping up Obama in the REAL CLEAR POLITIC …AVERAGES??? They have to make him appear in the MOE Margin of Error NATIONALLY. SICKENING!!!!

suziejoh on August 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

President John Fing Kerry.

LMFAO!!!!!1113124312423534656

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Polls are made up “news.” The MBM commissions and reports polls to (1) push an agenda; and/or (2) find “news” on the cheap (i.e., its lazy journalism).

besser tot als rot on August 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

That Quinnipiac poll suddenly becomes very worrisome if a guy as sharp as Trende thinks there might be something to it.

Anyone who has looked into the Quinnipiac “poll” and “thinks” “there might be something to it” has got the IQ of a turkey.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I’ve never been more positive Obama is going to win.

stingray9813 on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Aww another Obama troll comes out from it’s cave.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

The Romney campaign has that rancid loser stench all over it now.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Not really, but your posts do.

Doughboy on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Republicans never get it.

“Taxing the rich” may not make economic sense.

But it is popular.

It was the reason Clinton got elected in 92.

If the current moron is re-elected it will be because of this fact.

“Something for nothing” is a very powerful draw, whether it is real or not. Look at how many felons get causght everytime the cops pull the “Free Super Bowl Tickets!!!!” scam.

If Romney selects Ryan as his VP-then the election will really be over.

I would write the usual Mencken quote, but everyone is tired of it already.

And if Obama is re-elected, the usual group of bubbleheads and Ayn Rand types will be blaming it on social conservatives. Yawn.

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

These polls are embarrassing… only meant to shift the RCP average… made the whole thing a joke… garbage in and garbage out and all that.

I’ve gone on this rant often enough already. I wonder how many poll averaging sites and models will spawn after RCP is embarrassed in these elections.

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

I have wondered about that. I tend to pick a couple of polls…like Gallup and Rasmussen and stick with them.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

It is basic journalism obligation that Real Clear Politics publishes the Party ID breakdown in each poll they post on their website and also publishes the Party ID breakdown in the average poll they publish… It is not that complicated…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

I’d like to see a site like RCP that offers polls and the crosstabs, only interactive, offering a setting to the user to reweight all the polls to a specific margin. So for instance if a D+19 poll comes along, reweight it to a more reasonable D+3 then check the average. Don’t know if I’m describing this well…

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Polls say otherwise..

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Yeah where is this Bloomberg poll?

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

The Romney campaign has that rancid loser stench all over it now.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

You are a scared little coward. Yours tears will be sweet. LOL!

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Journolist is alive and well.

Grunt on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

I’ve never been more positive Obama is going to win.

stingray9813 on August 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

I’m certain that you are one of the 70% of high school dropouts that supported him :)

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

The polls are going to get more and more skewed the more desperate Obama gets. They wouldn’t be having to do samples like this if things were going Obama’s way.

Next poll will be D+25

gophergirl on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Yeah where is this Bloomberg poll?

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

The last poll they did was 6/20. So if he’s quoting that one..LOL.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Dreadnought on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Are you stupid? Ross Perot got Clinton elected. Don’t con me and say Mr 43% would have gotten a single Perot vote.

Lanceman on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Not only are these pollsters skewing the polls to prop up Obama, it is also to help him to raise money as well as fool the people.

suziejoh on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Nevertheless, for reasons I’ll explain shortly, my advice is to not pay too much attention to party identification.

Would Trende say this if the sample was flipped?

The exit polls ask this question: “No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a . . . ?”…

In fact, this disparity shows up in the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac sample. On page 8, at the top, they asked, “Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a . . . ?” The key phrases are “usually” and “think of yourself as.” If you eliminated “usually,” you would get a different overall response.

Wow, big difference. Well, that explains it. Except for that “generally speaking” part.

In all three states polled, the RCP Averages (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) include at least one poll of likely voters from a nonpartisan source that is roughly consistent with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac result. They also include polls that are not consistent with the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac result. Overall it looks like CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac’s system places it on the more pro-Democratic side of the “house effect scale,” but not outrageously so.

Yeah, whatever. Trende is paid to write this stuff.

Bottom line is obviously Obama is up a few Ohio and maybe in Florida.

Has anyone ever claimed he was ahead in either of those states?

farsighted on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

While it’s true Romney’s even with Obama in the national polls, it’s not true that he’s even with him in the far more important swing-state polls.

Another idiot! The swing state polls are not more important because they are even less accurate than the national polls. If either Romney or Obama wins the national popular vote by more than 2%, probably even by more than 1%, that person will very likely also win the electoral vote.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Yeah where is this Bloomberg poll?

libfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

I think they are storing down at Morehouse if memory serves. Perhaps you could skiddaddle on down there and lend those fine folks a hand.

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

ibfreeordie on August 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

‘Sup, libdieorfree?

Lanceman on August 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

I’d like to see a site like RCP that offers polls and the crosstabs, only interactive, offering a setting to the user to reweight all the polls to a specific margin. So for instance if a D+19 poll comes along, reweight it to a more reasonable D+3 then check the average. Don’t know if I’m describing this well…

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I understand what you are saying and they certainly can do this on a seperate column next to the polls they publish. But for them just to publish a poll without at least showing the Party ID breakdown in the poll is not right, not right at all….

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Member 2004 when the MSM polls had Kerry/Edwards(LMFAO!) up double digits?

Remember Kerry’s first term? It was historic!

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Polls like this really show you who’s on the ball. All you have to do is look at the sample data and know it’s bunk. Yet the Obot trolls spout off like he’s going to get a landslide ala 1984 or 1972.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Bloomberg also released a poll today that shows Obama up 13 pts and the partisan split was only Dems +5.

None of the trend lines are good for Romney. His campaign is taking on water and he’ll be in Bob Dole territory soon.

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

In June they had Obama up 13 yet nobody except for this Pewk survey is even close….do YOU know what an outlier is?

Oh public screwel grad…now I understand.

CW on August 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

gumbyandpokey: you suck – Eddie Murphy

the new aesthetic on August 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

“We’re all ‘rats now!”

Lanceman on August 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

For another take on this:

Hope.

NaCly dog on August 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

That Quinnipiac poll suddenly becomes very worrisome if a guy as sharp as Trende thinks there might be something to it.

This Trende Turkey should have read AmericanThinker as they took this Quinnipiac “poll” completely apart. If Trende can not think properly for himself, he should learn from others who can.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Psst CW. He’s quoting a Bloomberg poll from June 20th.

wargamer6 on August 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

That Quinnipiac poll suddenly becomes very worrisome if a guy as sharp as Trende thinks there might be something to it.

Oh BS… sharp in what?… Many of us can do the simple arithmetic and realize that this insane oversampling of democrats in the Quinnipac poll yesterday is the only thing that gives Obama the lead in Ohio and Florida… Period…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

In other words, you don’t have to go so far as to argue that pollsters should weight by party ID, but you should be aware of what the spreads are and be very skeptical of anybody going as far as Pew (!) or even those CBS/NYT/Q polls are.

Hell, yes, next thing you know they won’t even bother to poll Republicans at all..even then Obama still probably would not get over 50%.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Might as well just not vote, GOP!

STAY HOME!

LOL

Good Lt on August 2, 2012 at 10:42 PM

AP
It seems you know some of the folks who run RCP and if so why do not you suggest to them to publish the party ID breakdown next to each poll they post? Also they need to publuish the party ID breakdown next to the average poll they publish… It is not that complicated and it give a much better perspective and understanding of the poll…

mnjg on August 2, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Bmore line one please.

rogerb on August 2, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Well all that I know is that anti-Obama are starting to catch up with pro-Obama bumper stickers here in the Portland/Vancouver traffic jams. And I pay attention to such foolish minutia.

Rio Linda Refugee on August 2, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Where was the Bradley effect in 08?

gumbyandpokey on August 2, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Not terribly bright, are you?

Del Dolemonte on August 2, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Another idiot! The swing state polls are not more important because they are even less accurate than the national polls. If either Romney or Obama wins the national popular vote by more than 2%, probably even by more than 1%, that person will very likely also win the electoral vote.

VorDaj on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

This is true.

Terrye on August 2, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Ha! I found it!

How long will it until we start seeing some D+20 polls?

midgeorgian on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

The week after Labor Day.

Kataklysmic on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

..after the three-day Dem NC extravaganza and subsequent dead-cat bounce for The Pantload.

The War Planner on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Probably during the conventions. And yes, I’m taking this question completely seriously. If the pollsters are willing to release such crap that overestimates the Democrat turnout margin at 171% of that in a Dem wave year, then what would stop them from going D+20 to shape their narrative?

Sure, such a stupid sample would be dismantled and dismissed in a half-hour just as this was… but it still remains in the RCP average for 3 weeks or so where it pollutes the falsely-perceived “impartial” polling average by adding 2 points to Barky’s average.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Looks like the pollsters are a little ahead of the pace from our predictions. Can we see D+30 by September?

Gingotts on August 2, 2012 at 10:44 PM

100

Bmore on August 2, 2012 at 10:45 PM

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