Gallup: Unemployment went up in July

posted at 9:16 am on August 2, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Two more indicators previewing tomorrow’s July jobs report are in today, and neither look particularly good.  First, weekly jobless claims went back up again after a sharp drop the week before — which was amended upward in today’s report, too:

In the week ending July 28 the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 365,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 368,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending July 21, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 21 was 3,272,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,291,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,298,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,310,000.

The 357K figure from last week was originally reported at 353K, which had been a years-long low.  The new level of 365K will almost certainly get revised upward next week, and it’s close to the 370K-380K range we’ve seen since the spring and summer of 2011.  While the volatility has increased this summer, in part because of the auto industry, the overall results look like a continuation of the status quo.

That’s still better news than Gallup’s, whose surveys predict a rise in unemployment:

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 8.2% in July, up slightly from 8.0% in June, but better than the 8.8% from a year ago. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted number for July is 8.0%, an increase from 7.8% in June. …

Unemployment had previously dropped to 7.9% in mid-July, the lowest it has been since Gallup began tracking employment daily in 2010. However, the improvement was short-lived, and unemployment increased during the second half of the month.

Underemployment, however, did decline — for the third straight month in July, to 17.1%, the lowest since Gallup started collecting employment data. Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.

Gallup also indirectly predicts that more people have left the workforce.  Their percentage of people in the workforce working full time rose to 66.6%, Gallup’s highest level since the pollster began tracking this in January 2011.  However, the number of people employed full time remained the same, which means that the rise in this measure can only be due to a shrinking workforce.  If Gallup has this right, the jobless rate won’t rise tomorrow, but we may see more decline in the civilian population participation rate, which hit a 30-year low in May (63.6%) and is close to that now (63.8%).

Planned layoffs declined slightly in July, CNBC reports, but they’re still slightly higher than in 2011:

The number of planned layoffs at U.S. companies dropped for the second month in a row in July, even as job cuts in the financial sector persisted, a separate report showed.

Employers announced 36,855 planned job cuts last month, down 1.9 percent from 37,551 in June, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Job cuts were also well off levels of July last year when 66,414 layoffs were announced. For 2012 so far, employers have announced 319,946 cuts, up 2.5 percent from the 312,220 reductions in the first seven months of 2011.

We have all the data we’ll get ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, combining this with yesterday’s ADP report.  The jobless rate will be difficult to predict, so let’s stick with predictions of jobs added in July.  The Reuters consensus is that we’ll see 100,000 jobs added, but I’m sticking with my prediction of 75,000.  Take the poll!


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U-N-E-X-P-E-C-T-E-D-L-Y (wink).

Pork-Chop on August 2, 2012 at 9:18 AM

The chickens are coming home to roost. Will Obama’s lousy economic record finally catch up with him?

COgirl on August 2, 2012 at 9:19 AM

The jobless rate will be difficult to predict, so let’s stick with predictions of jobs added in July. The Reuters consensus is that we’ll see 100,000 jobs added, but I’m sticking with my prediction of 75,000.

75,000 seems like a good prediction. I also predict Debbie What-a-dumb Schmuck will be ecstatic over a number like that.

Doughboy on August 2, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Gallup: Unemployment went up in July

BLS report coming in <24 hours will confirm. Yeah, unexpectedly. /

22044 on August 2, 2012 at 9:22 AM

The chickens are coming home to roost.

COgirl on August 2, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Good idea. Perhaps the unemployed could get jobs at Chick-fil-A new openings.

aunursa on August 2, 2012 at 9:23 AM

It’s the new normal, bay-bee!

swinia sutki on August 2, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Ah, but let’s talk some more about Romney’s stumbles on his trip abroad.

HoosierStateofMind on August 2, 2012 at 9:25 AM

The Democrats are viewing these reports, ADP, Challenger and now Gallup, through the most optimistic lens they can manage, setting themselves up for the inevitable “unexpectedness” crush. The old Baruch adage, “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” is going to hit them harder and harder as we get closer to election day as they start selling off on Pelosi/Reid/Obama more and more. I say this because if the economy continues to flounder (as it is), what little enthusiasm Demcrats can still muster for four more years of this crud will disappear. Even dedicated Democrats in my friend circle are starting to grudgingly talk up Romney. Whether or not they can bring themselves to vote GOP is probably a step too far, but it’s easy to see them sitting out this election. Unexpectedly.

MTF on August 2, 2012 at 9:25 AM

There are “surveys” like the unemployment reports…and there are fact based reports…Well as a great indicator as to how bad the economy is….’New Help Wanted’ Online Ads plunged in July by its most since January 2009! The total number of Online Help Wanted Ads also fell by its most in a year…..in 7 of the last 8 times when we see an outlier of this magnitude it is followed by outright declines in non-farm payrolls and private payrolls. More than 3 years into a “recovery” and this is the status of the “recovery”…

Good Evening…This is the worst economic recovery America ever had….CBS NEWS…

DVPTexFla on August 2, 2012 at 9:26 AM

For a minute there, I thought the picture was from a Chick-Fil-A that was taken yesterday.

iamsaved on August 2, 2012 at 9:26 AM

This has to be good, right? I mean, the public sector is doing fine and we are heading in the right direction, right? The Obumbler’s plan worked, right?

How does the Liar-In-Chief get up everyday and continue to lie about the reality surrounding him? Wait, he plays golf while Moo-Chelle takes vacations. I think they need a marriage counselor, because she ain’t gonna be proud of him, or her Country, no more when he lose in November.

NEWS FLASH: New NBC/ABC/CBS/CNN/MSNBC poll has the Obumbler; 98% Romney; 2%, of course they polled Harlem resident’s only.

Tbone McGraw on August 2, 2012 at 9:26 AM

One more item that will play havoc with the jobs numbers tomorrow (and indeed, one that has been playing havoc with the weekly jobless claims) – planned July layoffs only 36.9K, down from last year’s 66.4K.

I’ll be “optimistic” on my July jobs-created number given Ford’s and Chrylser’s summer layoffs usually impact the July number and go with +90K.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The plan is working, you guys. The private sector is doing fine.

Obama has created millions of new jobs and has saved the world from a depression or something. You’re just too racist to notice.

Good Lt on August 2, 2012 at 9:27 AM

“It worked!”

Electrongod on August 2, 2012 at 9:28 AM

…pivoted!
…laser!
…F O C U S E D…!!!

KOOLAID2 on August 2, 2012 at 9:28 AM

The plan may be working, but the Hot Air poll is broke… Can someone please fix it?

kringeesmom on August 2, 2012 at 9:30 AM

We tried our plan and it worked. The private sector is doing fine.

The Rogue Tomato on August 2, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Poll closed?

Sue Doenim on August 2, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Gallup also indirectly predicts that more people have left the workforce.

Here we go again. There will be drop in the BS unemployment rate again because people are still giving up in droves. It’s a total disaster but the headlines will read “Unemployment Rate Plummets! Hooray for Obama!”

forest on August 2, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I’m working on the poll. Give me a minute to fix it. Sorry about the inconvenience!

Ed Morrissey on August 2, 2012 at 9:33 AM

With 3 months to go until the election, there’s no way Obama can turn the economy around. All the “our plan worked”, “we’re moving in the right direction” rhetoric in the world can’t save him. He’s been exposed as a charlatan and incompetent and he’s done. It’s over bar the shouting and we’ll wake up from our nightmare on the morning of Nov. 7th to President-elect Mitt Romney. Thank you Jesus!

Trafalgar on August 2, 2012 at 9:33 AM

The only thing for sure about these statistics is that they’re expected to be unexpected and they’re always revised upward (or downward if it’s manufacturing or GDP). Why don’t they delay issuing the figures until they can get it right?

My gauge? I don’t know even one soul who has found a job with a future in the last two weeks. Same people who were desperate 3 years ago are still desperate. My house assessment has gone down and my taxes up. I’m losing my health care. Oh, and I’m getting a pink slip November 4.

Pretty much, the outlook is sh*tty.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 9:35 AM

On a good note, Obama probably approved 400,000 new Social Security Advisably applications as well.

How soon till that well runs dry?

Robert Jensen on August 2, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Advisably = Disability

Darn auto corrector.

Robert Jensen on August 2, 2012 at 9:38 AM

President Obama is living proof that jobless Americans can’t build anything.

Rovin on August 2, 2012 at 9:39 AM

All a set up to see it magically plunge come early October.

hillsoftx on August 2, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Gallup: Unemployment went up in July

So lets talk about Chick-Fil-A some more and Rommney’s non gaffes abroad.

Gatsu on August 2, 2012 at 9:40 AM

The stock market is also signalling a worsening economy – as measured by the number of companies in the S&P 500 that are acting to cut their dividends, which appears to be a real-time indicator of the nation’s overall economic health.

ironman on August 2, 2012 at 9:41 AM

FORWARD!!!elevnty!!!!!

BigWyo on August 2, 2012 at 9:42 AM

BUT …. BUT…. MITTENS DID NOT PAY ANY TAXES FOR YEARS!!!!//???!!!!

watertown on August 2, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Big deal. You wing dings should be focused on Rombo’s press assistant telling a reporter to shove it, and then vote for TFGRP in November.

Bishop on August 2, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Joblessness may actually tilt the voting edge towards the Dems because of the benefits that the now long termed unemployed are dependent on, and they worry those will be taken away by the GOP.

bayview on August 2, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Where’s the guy who always shows up in these posts and talks from a universal “we liked this news” Mr. market investor perspective?

He was doing the shuffle about the unemployment numbers from last week, after he’s been repeatedly told they’re BS. I’d like his correction now, thank you.

The key Gallup paragraph:

Underemployment, however, did decline — for the third straight month in July, to 17.1%, the lowest since Gallup started collecting employment data. Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.

Very little full-time hiring and it won’t change until after the election.

So if 0 wins, businesses will adapt to the new reality by shrugging off tons of health policies into the public square exchange, and transition a percentage of the part-time into full-time. They won’t do anything more than that, because it’s going to remain a “wait for the shoe to drop” game with a term-limited Barry. So we’ll remain in stagnation for another two years, minimum.

If Romney wins, investment money will open up and more small businesses will get off the ground. Large companies won’t budge if they think they’re going to lose the health exchange dump, and are going to demand an off-set from the GOP, which will start with the corporate tax rates.

Purely anecdotal, but I talked a to a women yesterday whose been running a small business, successfully, for fifteen years. She’s reflexively left and based in a predominantly leftist area, but her building was land was bought by the city/local college and they told her “nothing will happen until 2014″. So the public sector is going to rub her 20-year old business out of existence because she’s direct competition for one of their public/private partnerships.

That’s why Barry’s economy will never change. The public sector, on every level, feels they can strong-arm anyone because he’s got their back.

budfox on August 2, 2012 at 9:54 AM

U-N-E-X-P-E-C-T-E-D-L-Y (wink).

Pork-Chop on August 2, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Hamming it up

michaelthomas on August 2, 2012 at 9:55 AM

@portia46- “Oh, and I’m getting a pink slip November 4.”

Dang, sorry to hear the bad news p46. Thoughts and prayers, etc.

Suppose the only silver lining is it gives you a day or two to help with the “get out the vote” effort for RMoney.

GrassMudHorsey on August 2, 2012 at 9:56 AM

The chickens are coming home to roost. Will Obama’s lousy economic record finally catch up with him?

COgirl on August 2, 2012 at 9:19 AM

They’ve been roosting for a while. Just look at all the droppings.

michaelthomas on August 2, 2012 at 9:57 AM

For a minute there, I thought the picture was from a Chick-Fil-A that was taken yesterday.

iamsaved on August 2, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I was thinking that, too, ‘cept they don’t look as pleasant.

apostic on August 2, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Here, in the St Louis Region, the unemployment rate dropped from 8% to 7.7%.

Yay Claire McCaskill!

Vince on August 2, 2012 at 10:01 AM

There is going to be something screwy about tomorrow’s number. I feel it.

Obama needs good economic news, and I think the number that will be reported will be around 140,000.

milcus on August 2, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Joblessness may actually tilt the voting edge towards the Dems because of the benefits that the now long termed unemployed are dependent on, and they worry those will be taken away by the GOP.

bayview on August 2, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Nah. The people who think that way would vote for him, anyway. It’s an issue if they’ll bother to show up since a large number have been moved onto disability. As long as some Repub doesn’t start talking about purging the disability roles, thereby giving the MSM a new meme, they won’t show to vote. Barry will have to start lying about how that’s what he’s heard the GOP plan to do.

People who’ve been unemployed or underemployed since 0 took over are beaten down. The ones who haven’t jumped to disability want to work.

They’re either going to sit out and let the fates decided, or vote for Romney. Barry’s crew knows that which is why they reflexively go to fear-n-loathing tactics.

budfox on August 2, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Big deal. You wing dings should be focused on Rombo’s press assistant telling a reporter to shove it, and then vote for TFGRP in November.

Bishop on August 2, 2012 at 9:46 AM

But didn’t he act in accordance with Chicago values? (except he apologized)

michaelthomas on August 2, 2012 at 10:06 AM

First time claims up slightly, but less than expected. Much improved over this time last year (when the average was about 415K) and two years ago (when the average was over 450K). 4-week average is now around 365K and still dropping … elsewhere, retailers reported strong increases in same-store sales in July, but factory orders from June were a major disappointment (-.5% versus an expected +.7%, but then again we already knew that June was a bad month). Overall, July numbers continue to hint that the Spring slowdown may have run its course – we’ll know more later this Summer. Tomorrow’s employment report will probably not show much … anything outside of +75-100K will be a surprise …

The markets are in a funk this morning because Draghi’s comments disappointed and the European markets went into a tailspin … ECB provided more talk, markets were expecting action …

TouchdownBuddha on August 2, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Obama’s America

Keep voting democrat, straight ticket!

tom daschle concerned on August 2, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Bush drove a car stolen by millionaires and billionaires into the ditch while texting Cathy which caused tactical headwinds.

/Carney

CorporatePiggy on August 2, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Joblessness may actually tilt the voting edge towards the Dems because of the benefits that the now long termed unemployed are dependent on, and they worry those will be taken away by the GOP.

bayview on August 2, 2012 at 9:48 AM

They’ve actually been going away as the U-3 rate has “improved” and states no longer qualify to have their jobless collect the higher tiers of EUC or extended benefits. The EUC (formerly up to 99 weeks, cut to, if memory serves, 82 weeks earlier this year when it was extended) rolls are down from 3.18 million this time last year to 2.52 million, while extended benefits plunged from 531,698 this time last year to 13,207.

EUC is slated to go away entirely at the end of the year, and you can bet your bottom penny that the ‘Rats will blame the GOP for not extending it again.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:11 AM

There is going to be something screwy about tomorrow’s number. I feel it.

Obama needs good economic news, and I think the number that will be reported will be around 140,000.

milcus on August 2, 2012 at 10:02 AM

You think? Every Chrysler and Ford plant that would have normally been shut down the second week of the month will be part of the Establishment Survey, which if not corrected should be good for at least a 50K “increase”.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:13 AM

You didn’t build that

because no one is working……….All Hail the Messiah!

dmann on August 2, 2012 at 10:15 AM

The average Employment-population ratio over the 12 years of Republican-majority control (Jan 1995 – Dec 2006) was 63.3%.

The Republican plans worked.

Over the Obama pResidency (Jan 2009 – June 2012), the average Employment-Population ratio has been 58.7%.

The Obama plans failed. (Or succeeded, if you believe that he fully intended to bring the American “Empire to its knees”.)

If we had the same Employment-Population ratio now that was the average over 12 YEARS (144 months) of Republican majority-control, it would be 63.3%. How many more people would be employed?

Over 11.5 Million more people would be employed!

The the BLS.gov data shows that the current Civilian noninstitutional population is 243,155,000.

If the Employment-population ratio right now was back to the average of what it was under the Republican majority for 12 years, that 63.3% applied to our current population would mean that the number employed should be:
243,155,000 * 0.633 = 153,917,115

However, the ACTUAL Number Employed in the Civilian labor force in June 2012 was = 142,415,000
representing an Employment-Population Ratio, of:
142,415,000 / 243,155,000 = 0.5856 = 58.6% (rounding up)

So how many missing jobs are represented by that Obama level of employment (58.6%) as compared to the 1995-2006 Republican average level of employment (63.3%)?

153,917,115 – 142,415,000 = 11,502,115

Over 11.5 Million jobs are missing from the Obama economy!

ITguy on August 2, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I’m working on the poll. Give me a minute to fix it. Sorry about the inconvenience!

Ed Morrissey on August 2, 2012 at 9:33 AM

..Ed, we feel you have been unfairly maligned and abused when technical things (pop-up ads, malfunctioning polls, etc.) fail to operate correctly on HG. Therefore, I am declaring today The Ed Morrissy Appreciation Day..

..we’ll all be over to your house around noon to order a chicken sandwich and waffle fries. BE READY!

The War Planner on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 AM

The Reuters consensus is that we’ll see 100,000 jobs added, but I’m sticking with my prediction of 75,000.

That would be the neighborhood of my prediction as well. Look for the spin that more people filing for unemployment means that people are beginning to get excited about their prospects now that the Obama plan is working.

That being said, negative job growth would be a game changer for what is supposed to be the doldrums of August political campaigning.

Happy Nomad on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 AM

@portia46- “Oh, and I’m getting a pink slip November 4.”

Dang, sorry to hear the bad news p46. Thoughts and prayers, etc.

Suppose the only silver lining is it gives you a day or two to help with the “get out the vote” effort for RMoney.

GrassMudHorsey on August 2, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Bless your heart, but I won’t be alone. Anyone who works for a Defense Contractor will get one. Sequestration. No CEO in his/her right mind would fail to send them out–contrary to the threat from the DoL-because the law is very clear. If we’re laid off come January, the company must pay severence and benefits. No company could survive that.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:27 AM

We tried our plan and it worked. The private sector is doing fine.

The Rogue Tomato on August 2, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Is this the place to insert the riff about the need for fortunate people like Obama to pay more in taxes for the good of the middle class? or is this where the part about growing America from the middle gets placed? I’ve heard the same speech so many times I’m surprised reporters are not comparing how he gave it this time over the last time.

Happy Nomad on August 2, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Anyone who works for a Defense Contractor will get one. Sequestration. No CEO in his/her right mind would fail to send them out–contrary to the threat from the DoL-because the law is very clear. If we’re laid off come January, the company must pay severence and benefits. No company could survive that.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:27 AM

You’ve been sequestrated? Yes, you are right that you will not be alone and that companies would be insane to take the DoL’s advice that they can ignore the law.

That being said, I put the reality of sequestration actually occurring at around 25-30% Some deal is going to be made before it comes to actually laying people off. BUT Team Obama can’t be happy with the idea of a steady stream of pink slips going out between now and the eve of the elections.

Happy Nomad on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 AM

GrassMudHorsey on August 2, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Oh, and I live in Maryland. Flush taxes are going up. Income taxes. Gas taxes. New taxes for watching television. I’m sure O’Malley is looking into California’s GPS charge by the mile scheme. Did I mention the county’s raising property taxes and the state’s going to raise sale’s taxes. Businesses are fleeing across the border to VA and those who are leaving are being replaced by the illegal aliens some counties in VA chased out.

Anyone who would vote for a Democrat for any office is either certifiable or on the dole. And Maryland is two to one Democrat.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:34 AM

How could that be? You really think the Democrats will give up their bottom line? Raise Cap Gains to 40% and income rates to the same amount? Even in the face of 700,000 lost jobs if they get their way, the Democrats are all for “fairness”. You didn’t build it, you can keep it.

Why is it that folks have never figured out that wealth is a relative thing? Millionaire/billionaire means $200,000. In Maryland, it’s now $100,000. You folks at $50,000? They’re coming for you.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I forget.

Which, falsely generated, politically adjusted, magically delicious number are we going with this time?

Hard to keep up with all the….um….adjusting.

98ZJUSMC on August 2, 2012 at 10:40 AM

You’ve been sequestrated? Yes, you are right that you will not be alone and that companies would be insane to take the DoL’s advice that they can ignore the law.

That being said, I put the reality of sequestration actually occurring at around 25-30% Some deal is going to be made before it comes to actually laying people off. BUT Team Obama can’t be happy with the idea of a steady stream of pink slips going out between now and the eve of the elections.

Happy Nomad on August 2, 2012 at 10:33 AM

The deal that will be reached is, “Either you don’t send out the pink slips and we’ll ignore the enforcement because we still control enough of the DA/AG offices, or you’ll be audited.” The ‘Rats want, nay, NEED defense spending to be slashed so their Socialist “utopia” can survive just a little bit longer.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:42 AM

10:39 post in response to Happy Nomad. And since I’m apologizing I need to confess that my typing isn’t keeping up with my thinking and time’s short while subjects are interesting. I keep leaving off the contraction portion of words. I know. Proof before posting.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Why is it that folks have never figured out that wealth is a relative thing? Millionaire/billionaire means $200,000. In Maryland, it’s now $100,000. You folks at $50,000? They’re coming for you.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:39 AM

In short, if you have a private-sector job, you’ll get squeezed. While the tax rates will also be increased on public-sector employees (unless Roberts decides that the Constitution “allows” different tax rates depending on one’s employer), they’ll simply have their pay increased to cover the increased taxes.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Yes, employment figures do not look good, but the rate will come out at 7.8% tomorrow as about one million jobless will drop off the active rolls. Need to get competitive for re-election, you know.

Oleta on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Yes, employment figures do not look good, but the rate will come out at 7.8% tomorrow as about one million jobless will drop off the active rolls. Need to get competitive for re-election, you know.

Oleta on August 2, 2012 at 10:47 AM

2 months too early on that prediction.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I guess we know Ed doesn’t check his posts! That poll has been broken from the minute he put the post up. And I was really hoping to win the prize too!

MTF on August 2, 2012 at 10:48 AM

The War Planner on August 2, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Heh. I could roll with that. Ed’s buying, right?

22044 on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Polls, statistics and data are racist.

Physics Geek on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 AM

In Maryland, it’s now $100,000. You folks at $50,000? They’re coming for you.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Maryland is a lost cause with O’Malley and a Dem machine running everything.

Happy Nomad on August 2, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Polls, statistics and data are raaaaacist.

Physics Geek on August 2, 2012 at 10:52 AM

5 a’s in “raaaaacist”.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Reuters is actually reporting this as good news.
This will be revised upward next week anyway.

OccamsRazor on August 2, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Reuters is actually reporting this as good news.
This will be revised upward next week anyway.

OccamsRazor on August 2, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I’m shocked, SHOCKED that an official press organ of the ObamiNation would do that.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 11:15 AM

I think you should add a category to your survey:

“Whatever number makes it look like the Dems aren’t causing the economy to bleed out” or something…

catmman on August 2, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Touchdown Buddha Reporting from HQ in Chicago:

“A very strong report. Sure, we are back to 360,000 unemployed every week, but that is a nice round number. Every economic metric the last four weeks has been a decline from the month before, but that is to be expected. Not sure why that is to be expected, but since the media says it is unexpected, it must be expected. We are watching and monitoring. We see future action next week which will give us a good clue to forward progress. It is true I have been typing that same thing for four years now, but someday it will have to come to pass right? We maintain here at the Headquarters that it is possible to dupe as many rubes as necessary to get re-elected, so let’s all just pretend things are fine- because they are fine. At least if you listen to us. Carry on!”

AirForceCane on August 2, 2012 at 11:34 AM

The chickens are coming home to roost. Will Obama’s lousy economic record finally catch up with him?

COgirl on August 2, 2012 at 9:19 AM

And his goose is cooked!

seven on August 2, 2012 at 11:47 AM

What? No mention of the 100,000 people Lockheed Martin just informed they will be laying off? Lockheed Martin gave them 90 days notice, as per their contractual obligation, the effective termination, i.e. late work date… Why, that would be Friday, November 2nd, 2012, four whole days before the Nov, 6th election.

Side note: Seems that the Whitehouse is rather perturbed with Lockheed Martin’s choice of exactly when to lay-off it’s personnel, who Lockheed Martin is laying off due to defense cut’s mandated by the Whitehouse.

SWalker on August 2, 2012 at 11:50 AM

I’m guessing 98K, to be revised downward later.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on August 2, 2012 at 11:54 AM

I won’t be alone. Anyone who works for a Defense Contractor will get one. Sequestration. No CEO in his/her right mind would fail to send them out–contrary to the threat from the DoL-because the law is very clear. If we’re laid off come January, the company must pay severence and benefits. No company could survive that.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Sequestration appears to be the Democratic Socialists dream for decimating both our military and the Defense industry.

I can’t blame them for being true to their principles, but I do blame Speaker Boehner for being stupid enough to go along with it in the first place. The “Super Committee” was always a farce and was intended to fail so that their real goal, deep cuts to our military, could be realized… with “bipartisan” agreement!

Sure, I want Boehner to fight sequestration now, but he should have been smart enough to have fought it, rather than passed it, when it first came up.

If the Republicans had refused to raise the debt ceiling, it would not have “shut down” the Government… rather, it would have FORCED a DE FACTO Balanced Budget… they would not have been allowed to spend more than they brought in.

The Democrats could not have raised the debt ceiling without Republican “help”, and Boehner and the Republicans were stupid to give them that “help”. The Tea Party put Republicans in control of the House because we wanted a stop to the $1.5 Trillion annual deficits.

Boehner has failed to stop the bleeding. I’d like to see the next session elect Michelle Bachmann as Speaker of the House.

ITguy on August 2, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Why is it that folks have never figured out that wealth is a relative thing? Millionaire/billionaire means $200,000. In Maryland, it’s now $100,000. You folks at $50,000? They’re coming for you.

Portia46 on August 2, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Yes, this, exactly. My wonderful wife (who I love despite the fact she is a hardcore leftist/socialist) always asks me ‘Why do you care so much about these things that dont effect you?’ when referring to government overreach/trampling rights/unequal application of laws/determination of what rich is/etc, and I always respond with exactly what you said above.

She doesn’t believe me, despite her ‘college education’ and her ‘knowledge of history’. She doesn’t see that everything is a slippery slope.

And my condolences for your job loss. We lost 3 of 15 where I work, after a natural attrition of 5 didn’t quite do the job. People with families and plans now scrambling for another job, thanks to sequestration. My thoughts are with you.

majordomomojo on August 2, 2012 at 12:07 PM

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/02/gm-profits-slip-european-struggles
Bin Laden is dead, and GM is in Intensive Care.

bayview on August 2, 2012 at 12:17 PM

You think? Every Chrysler and Ford plant that would have normally been shut down the second week of the month will be part of the Establishment Survey, which if not corrected should be good for at least a 50K “increase”.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Yeah, there is definitely some fuzzy math that will be employed to reach tomorrow’s number. Based on the data I have seen, the number should be between ~55k and ~70k, and the unemployment rate should rise to 8.3%. However, there is always wiggle room with these numbers, and Obama badly needs good data that he can tout. So, my guess is that we will see something miraculous tomorrow.

milcus on August 2, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Boehner has failed to stop the bleeding. I’d like to see the next session elect Michelle Bachmann as Speaker of the House.

ITguy on August 2, 2012 at 12:01 PM

I would much rather see Pennsylvania’s Rep. Mike Kelly, he understands what is killing the American Economy, and is a true Tea Party Congressman.

A Rising Star.

SWalker on August 2, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Good idea. Perhaps the unemployed could get jobs at Chick-fil-A new openings.

aunursa on August 2, 2012 at 9:23 AM

No kidding. They were very busy today (like 3x normal traffic), but not like yesterday. But I do expect tomorrow to be crazy again!

Obama: “Uhhh… oh… ummm… yea well we meant to do that… Chick-fil-a is one of my economic success stories!”

dominigan on August 2, 2012 at 12:35 PM

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/02/gm-profits-slip-european-struggles
Bin Laden is dead, and GM is in Intensive Care.

bayview on August 2, 2012 at 12:17 PM

GOVERNMENT MOTORS’ CEO RESPONDS WITH “HEADWINDS”: “Our results in North America were solid, but we clearly have more work to do to offset the headwinds we face, especially in regions like Europe and South America,” said GM chairman and CEO Dan Akerson.

Mr_Magoo on August 2, 2012 at 12:36 PM

The numbers will probably go up 50K and unemployment will go down at least a .10. There is no bad press for The Won.

Cindy Munford on August 2, 2012 at 12:58 PM

budfox on August 2, 2012 at 9:54 AM

They won’t do anything more than that, because it’s going to remain a “wait for the shoe to drop” game with a term-limited Barry. So we’ll remain in stagnation for another two years, minimum.

With all due respect, the regime ignores court orders it does not like. It ignores Congressional subpoenas it does not like. We have not had a Constitutional budget for 4 years. Executive agencies issue orders directly contrary to Federal statute. Obama issues Executive Orders that a) create new Federal laws without Congress, and b) overturn existing Federal laws without authority [such as the "DREAM ACT"] with absolutely no authority under the Constitution.

The Supreme Court just ruled that the government can create and enforce mandates that would otherwise be violations of the Constitution so long as a Federal judge can find an implied hint that the word “tax” is involved; presumably somewhere in the shadow of the penumbra. Since this was done by the Chief Justice first writing an opposite position, and then without warning changing sides and writing what became the majority position, the probability of successful employment of force majeure has to be considered.

The Courts no longer can be assumed to protect the Bill of Rights or any part of the Constitution.

How sure are you of the existence of this “term-limited Barry”?

How sure are you of the existence of real elections in November?

We have to act as if there will be a polling day November 6, and that the votes will be counted honestly, at least until November 6. And if they take place with an honest vote count, we have to assume that Obama will actually leave office in January; unless he doesn’t.

But I’m not betting any money on it.

Subotai Bahadur

Subotai Bahadur on August 2, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Obama’s plan is really working! (turn off sarcasm)

jqc1970 on August 2, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Yeah, there is definitely some fuzzy math that will be employed to reach tomorrow’s number. Based on the data I have seen, the number should be between ~55k and ~70k, and the unemployment rate should rise to 8.3%. However, there is always wiggle room with these numbers, and Obama badly needs good data that he can tout. So, my guess is that we will see something miraculous tomorrow.

milcus on August 2, 2012 at 12:27 PM

The kicker – all the GM plants that were closed the middle of July and thus not included in the July CES will be included in the August CES.

Steve Eggleston on August 2, 2012 at 4:49 PM