CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% …

posted at 8:41 am on August 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’ve got good news and bad news for Hot Air readers today. First, the good news: After a few years of embarrassing sample skew problems in the CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac, at least for this week’s look at three swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  The bad news?  I’m not sure the new partnership improved things.

First, let’s look at CBS’ lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

  • Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
  • Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
  • Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms.  Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms.  Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.

CBS/NYT polling: New partner … same issues.


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Obama’s doing better than he did in 2008!-CBS/NYT

artist on August 1, 2012 at 8:43 AM

As soon as I saw the headline poll results, I thought rigged samples.

Yep. Right again.

WannabeAnglican on August 1, 2012 at 8:44 AM

The partisan breakdown is not the issue… I remember when people were complaining about the partisan breakdowns and 2008 and they were whistling past the graveyard.

No, the issue is the “Did you vote for McCain or Obama” question…

ninjapirate on August 1, 2012 at 8:44 AM

No matter how you slice it, those independent numbers are brutal for Romney. Absolutely brutal.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Obama’s free campaign workers…MSM…

PatriotRider on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

No matter how you slice it, those independent numbers are brutal for Romney. Absolutely brutal.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Invest in a better pair of reading glasses…

PatriotRider on August 1, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Do they merely oversample Democrats or do Democrats just respond in a greater proportion to these polls? I mean, I’m a “hanger upper” and avoid these types of calls. If many of my ilk are of similar persuasion and act the same, its no wonder they get a skewed sample due to the response bias. However, if they purposefully oversample then report with no further discussion as to the response rate of their sample, then that is a biased and flawed poll, IMO.

ted c on August 1, 2012 at 8:46 AM

No need to get cousin pookie off the couch this year. Leave him to watch the oprahnet with his redbull and vodka. All is well.

Lost in Jersey on August 1, 2012 at 8:46 AM

These aren’t polls. They are pure propaganda.

TarheelBen on August 1, 2012 at 8:47 AM

CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac

AKA A Match Made In A Cuisinart On PUREE Mode.

pilamaye on August 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Quinnipiac has had a few issues in the pas with their sample pools on their own, but partnering with CBS and the Times is like taking a problem child and dropping them off ay the nearest tattoo parlor. But if I were Team Romney, I would use the PA poll to remind myself to continue to focus on the Path to 270 first, and then work on the 3-4 shiny baubles out there like Pennsylvania that might also go Red come November if things really look back for Team Obama.

jon1979 on August 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

There should be punitive liabilities for skewering political polls intentionally. Between “causing emotional distress”, “defamation with malice aforethought”, and “misrepresentation/fraud”, a bunch of lawyers should be able to carve themselves a fairly good living.

Archivarix on August 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

Thank you for that Ed. There’s no way on God’s green earth the boy king is doing better in FL now than he was in 2008 and 2010, without some help from the pollsters.

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Maybe Quinnipiac interviewed the same guy Harry Reid has been talking to.

MTF on August 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

No matter how you slice it, those independent numbers are brutal for Romney. Absolutely brutal.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Did you bother to look at the BS samples? Aside from Pennsylvania, they’re a joke. Obama won Florida and Ohio each by about 4 points in 2008. Are you seriously buying into any poll that shows him increasing his lead in those states?

Doughboy on August 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I hope alot of journalists and pollsters lose their careers over this election.

forest on August 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Lsm just giddy

cmsinaz on August 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Alternate Headline: Obama has a huge lead over Romney among Democrats.

The Rogue Tomato on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

If many of my ilk are of similar persuasion and act the same, its no wonder they get a skewed sample due to the response bias. However, if they purposefully oversample then report with no further discussion as to the response rate of their sample, then that is a biased and flawed poll, IMO.

ted c on August 1, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Pollsters are supposed to “weight” their samples in ways that reflect the electorate. While relying upon 2010 midterm weightings is insane, its equally ridiculous to rely upon 2008 party samples. Here’s what’s also odd about the data, the partisan breakdown in the poll really evens up when the question is asked “which party are you registered under.” I wonder why the discrepancy between the question “are you dem/rep/independent” and “which party are you registered for?” Either way, these polls are a bit overly optimistic. I don’t see Obama taking Florida and Ohio will be down to the wire.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

No matter how you slice it, those independent numbers are brutal for Romney. Absolutely brutal.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

You’re absolutely right. You guys have nothing to worry about in this election. Obama has it in the bag.

forest on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

You can’t produce any other polls that duplicate these findings.

Want to guess why?

Even Democrat PPP had Mitt winning Indies in FL. just this week.

artist on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Meaningless. Presidential polls are always meaningless. The media have to portray these races as close, otherwise there’s no contest to keep people interested.

rickv404 on August 1, 2012 at 8:53 AM

These aren’t polls. They are pure propaganda.

TarheelBen on August 1, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Prop-up-ganda?

backwoods conservative on August 1, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Oh well, we tried. I guess that Obama fellow is just too awesome. I live in PA, and I can tell you, we are really looking forward to having 5 coal fired power plants shut down next year and paying eight times our current electric rates.

Night Owl on August 1, 2012 at 8:53 AM

+1 mtf

cmsinaz on August 1, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Are you seriously buying into any poll that shows him increasing his lead in those states?

Doughboy on August 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Florida no. Ohio, I *could* believe it because Mitt Romney is potentially the worst possible candidate to appeal to the populist ethos of Ohio. I don’t think Obama’s support has increased in Ohio, I can believe they like Romney less than they liked McCain. But, I still think its a bit much to say he’s got over 50% in the state.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Either way, these polls are a bit overly optimistic. I don’t see Obama taking Florida and Ohio will be down to the wire.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

First thing I’ve agreed with you on recently that didn’t involve Batman. He’s gonna lose Florida. Maybe not by a huge margin, but probably along the lines of Bush’s win in 2004.

Ohio could be relatively close(2-3 points perhaps), but there’s too much going against Obama in that state. It’s in the rust belt. It went for the GOP in 2010. And it’s not exactly like he dominated there in 2008. A 4-point win back then is meaningless now seeing as how he’s dropping 7-8 points on average in state polls that aren’t using absurd D+9 samples.

Doughboy on August 1, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Amen, sister.
To our everlasting shame, Obama took my red state in 2008. Nobody even dares suggest that might happen again. These polls are sh*t. I just don’t believe the “swing states” are swinging that way.

swinia sutki on August 1, 2012 at 8:55 AM

The politburo diligently propping up the dictator.

tom daschle concerned on August 1, 2012 at 8:56 AM

You’re absolutely right. You guys have nothing to worry about in this election. Obama has it in the bag.

forest on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

+1

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Now, I realize that CBS, NBC, ABC, etc. would never in a million years dissect the samples for their viewers, but why on earth doesn’t FOX? Even if FOX’s goal is to be “non-partisan”, it’s a fact that the poll is slanted.

BettyRuth on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Yes, these polls don’t look too reliable, but why am I still worried?

Pope Linus on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Even Democrat PPP had Mitt winning Indies in FL. just this week.

artist on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Yeah, like I said, I don’t see Obama winning Florida. But the GOP is making a huge mistake in their focus on Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a losing gambit. What you need to be concerned about are CO and NV. Do you realize Obama could lose, VA, OH, FL and still win the election if he holds onto Iowa, WI, MI, NV, NM and CO? In all the polls of those states I’ve only seen where Romney was ahead.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

The left wing media are masters of creative statistics and just flat out lying. Both are necessary to shore up their savior, Obama. Be prepared for much more of their mathematical garbage between now and November.

rplat on August 1, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Yes, these polls don’t look too reliable, but why am I still worried?

Pope Linus on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Because polls don’t factor in the voter fraud that is always part of the Democrat playbook.

Happy Nomad on August 1, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I’m parking money in Big Pharma since they will be the biggest winners — along with the shrinks dispensing with the anti-depressants — come November.

It’s going to be good. :-D

Punchenko on August 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% …

…there must really be a drug problem in this country that we are not yet aware of! (a Fannie & Frannie type)

KOOLAID2 on August 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

why is Obama paying $2.2 million in polling data?

maybe because the emperior knows his goose is cooked

where can I find some hope and change
where can I squeeze out a vote

audiotom on August 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

…Ohio, I *could* believe it because Mitt Romney is potentially the worst possible candidate to appeal to the populist ethos of Ohio…
libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Obama regulations kill Ohio coal mine, hundreds of jobs wiped out

The OhioAmerican Energy company announced it would close its coal mine near Brilliant, Ohio on Tuesday. There is no question whatsoever about the reason for the shutdown, because the company made it abundantly clear in their press release… Source

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Frannie

=Freddie

KOOLAID2 on August 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I live in a small coastal town in FL that leans left and went for Obama in big numbers last election. This past weekend while driving around the island looking for property I saw quite a few Romney yard signs. And not one Obama, not a single one.

Whether this is due to an enthusiasim gap or raw numbers either way a bad sign for the “O”.

filetandrelease on August 1, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Romney isn’t fighting hard enough.

Although these samples are skewed Dems +400% as always it also shows that WITH THIS PRESIDENT the gop nominee should be doing much better. Romney is still playing nicey-nice and missing opportunities everyday. And I’m sure his VP pick is going to be awesomely awesome motivating for the base………..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz (Portman or TPaw).

The Dems always get excited in the last few weeks (when they think their welfare checks are going to be cut off). Why there is even now a poll that shows that 2/3rds of Dem support “gay marriage” even though NOT ONE SOCIETY has ever survived this type of situation for families.

*****CHIK-FIL-A forever.

PappyD61 on August 1, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Keep beating your chest liberals…
I know 3 die-hard-libs that are staying
home this cycle- as they will never vote
for a republican, but know this country
is going the wrong way.

Bensonofben on August 1, 2012 at 9:03 AM

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

What you said was: No matter how you slice it, those independent numbers are brutal for Romney. Absolutely brutal.

…..

They are bogus, therefore not brutal.

artist on August 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Yes this seems to be a “skewed”poll, but that being said it’s becoming disconcerting to wake up every morning to these type of numbers.

sandee on August 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

No matter how you slice it, those independent numbers are brutal for Romney. Absolutely brutal.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:45 AM

…does that worry you?
Just fart…you’ll feel better!

KOOLAID2 on August 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

They have to explain on what basis they oppose relatives of age to marry, though.

Look, if the coal plant was an environmental disaster it probably needed to be closed, those things can really negatively impact health. Its pretty funny. In support of Bain, conservative will say “sometimes people have to be fired.” The only difference between Bain-style capitalism and environmental regulations is that in the former “sometime people have to be fired” to line the pockets of board members and in the later, sometimes people lose their jobs because a business negatively impacts society. Clearly, some coal plants have been sliding under the radar on environmental impact, particularly when it comes to sulfur in the water supply. Just like an under-performing business that Bain takes over, polluting coal plants should have to get their act together too.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Yeah, like I said, I don’t see Obama winning Florida. But the GOP is making a huge mistake in their focus on Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a losing gambit. What you need to be concerned about are CO and NV. Do you realize Obama could lose, VA, OH, FL and still win the election if he holds onto Iowa, WI, MI, NV, NM and CO? In all the polls of those states I’ve only seen where Romney was ahead.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Pennsylvania is usually fool’s gold for the GOP(Pat Toomey’s eeked out Senate victory notwithstanding). But it would be foolish to not at least attempt to contest that state. If for no other reason that for the Romney campaign to show their supporters that they’re not trying to win this thing by just winning the Bush 2004 states.

As for your other point, I don’t see Obama taking Iowa. The others probably remain in his column except for maybe New Hampshire and Nevada. I give Romney a coinflip’s chance at winning each of those.

Doughboy on August 1, 2012 at 9:06 AM

I live in a small coastal town in FL…

filetandrelease on August 1, 2012 at 9:02 AM

So do I. North or south of Tampa?

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Yes this seems to be a “skewed”poll, but that being said it’s becoming disconcerting to wake up every morning to these type of numbers.

sandee on August 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

That’s the MSM’s plan.

Liam on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

AFTER 3 days of a Republican Convention and AFTER 3 days of a Democrat one, will polls matter to me: and shocker: the day after the DNC one, you’re going to panic. Why I remember President Dukakis – er…..

Marcus on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

They are bogus, therefore not brutal.

artist on August 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

You can skew a poll by overrepresenting party ID, but how do you skew the percentage of independents who support Obama or Romney? I mean, unless you’re at the point where you think these polls are entirely fabricated?

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I don’t see Obama taking the USA Florida and Ohio will be down to the wire.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Fixed.

hillsoftx on August 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

That’s the MSM’s plan.

Liam on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I agree…

sandee on August 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Rasmussen has a good track record:

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Rasmussen reported the following Partisan Trends for June, (and will soon release updated numbers for July):
Republicans 35.4%
Democrats 34.0%
Unaffiliateds 30.5%

If you round, the D/R/I partisan breakdown of an honest poll would be 34/35/31.

Instead, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac is using 36/27/32 in Florida, 35/27/32 in Ohio, and 38/32/26 in Pennsylvania.

Oversampling Democrats by anywhere from 1 to 4 points, and undersampling Republicans by anywhere from 3 to 8 points.

I.E., instead of polling Republicans at +1 over Democrats, they are polling Democrats at +6 to +9 over Republicans.

And even with that, the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls only show Obama hitting 50%?

The real story is that Obama has been underwater since this time three years ago (when they first started pushing Obamacare).

If the election for a second term had been held in November 2009, November 2010, or November 2011, Obama would have lost. And he is on track to lose in November 2012.

ITguy on August 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Another day, more rigged polls. Yawn…

When are they planning on doing real polls? If they don’t they’re going to look awfully incompetent on Election Day.

eyedoc on August 1, 2012 at 9:09 AM

AFTER 3 days of a Republican Convention and AFTER 3 days of a Democrat one, will polls matter to me: and shocker: the day after the DNC one, you’re going to panic. Why I remember President Dukakis – er…..

Marcus on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Actually, doesn’t the GOP get 4 days at their convention since they’re not having money issues or a bunch of their elected representatives refusing to show their faces?

Doughboy on August 1, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Rasmussen reported the following Partisan Trends for June, (and will soon release updated numbers for July):
Republicans 35.4%
Democrats 34.0%
Unaffiliateds 30.5%

If you round, the D/R/I partisan breakdown of an honest poll would be 34/35/31.

Instead, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac is using 36/27/32 in Florida, 35/27/32 in Ohio, and 38/32/26 in Pennsylvania.

Oversampling Democrats by anywhere from 1 to 4 points, and undersampling Republicans by anywhere from 3 to 8 points.

I.E., instead of polling Republicans at +1 over Democrats, they are polling Democrats at +6 to +9 over Republicans.

And even with that, the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls only show Obama hitting 50%?

This^^^

eyedoc on August 1, 2012 at 9:10 AM

I hope alot of journalists and pollsters lose their careers over this election.

forest on August 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

They should but they won’t. No, they’ll be lined up to do what they started during the recent foreign tour. That was just a warmup.

Drained Brain on August 1, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Now, I realize that CBS, NBC, ABC, etc. would never in a million years dissect the samples for their viewers, but why on earth doesn’t FOX? Even if FOX’s goal is to be “non-partisan”, it’s a fact that the poll is slanted.

BettyRuth on August 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Most talking heads, including those on FOX have no idea how to assess the reliability, validity and mathematics of the various polls. If they’re not provided an advance analysis they’ll simply regurgitate anything that’s on their reader.

rplat on August 1, 2012 at 9:11 AM

As for your other point, I don’t see Obama taking Iowa

Why? Iowa is an odd little duck. To my eyes its focus on agriculture and its long leftist/populist traditions puts it much closer to WI than OH. Remember, Iowa voted for the most left wing GOP candidate in 2008 with Huckabee and launched Obama to the Presidency. It neighbors IL, that’s just a really tall prospect for Romney. The IA, NV, CO firewall is where the election will be decided and those states Romney has yet to make any in-roads.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:11 AM

So do I. North or south of Tampa?

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Actually more East but a bit North. NSB.

filetandrelease on August 1, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Like I keep saying, 0′s support in Ohio are those at the public-sector trough. Police/Fire are not going to vote Republican this time due to Kasich, and the fear of no more “stimulus” dollars, i.e job protection.

Barry should be underwater in Ohio, but he’s not. It’s a fallacy to think it’s due to the Auto sector, when fracking has done more and wider in a shorter timespan.

Ohio

Population – 12M

Adults 18+ – 8M

50% Female

Black – 1.5M

White – 9M

Blame. Kasich.

budfox on August 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I’ll repeat, there are no polls that duplicate these results.

artist on August 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Ugh.

Can we PLEASE finally set up a government commission as part of the Census Bureau that releases party affiliation weightings on a monthly basis?

Any polls released MUST apply that weighting to their final number in order to be “Certified Accurate” according to the Census Bureau. I mean, c’mon, if we did this we would take a HUGE propaganda tool out of the hands of the MSM and yet nothing. No one even thinks of it. Instead we spend our time looking into steroid abuse.

I mean c’mon people, this corruption could be so easily solved.

mitchellvii on August 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Rasmussen has a good track record:

You may want to take a gander at how Rasmussen did during the 2010 elections. Not pretty.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:13 AM

That’s the MSM’s plan.

Liam on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Yep, the plan is to dispirit us. To make us think that Obama has this in the bag. And it will probably work for some people who don’t pay a lot of attention.

TarheelBen on August 1, 2012 at 9:14 AM

It will be interesting to see how the polling goes now that the HHS Mandate has kicked in forcing religious institutions to enable sluts at Georgetown Law to get free contraception and abortions.

That, more than the fact it is Chick-Fil-A Day should be noted. Obama and his adminstration hates religious freedom.

Happy Nomad on August 1, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Sooner or later, Romney is going to have to show SOMETHING in a battleground state. And if the PA result is to be believed (and the sample doesn’t look out of whack), then Mitt will lose Ohio and Florida, too.

It’s odd, but I’m not sure the economy is going to be a deciding factor in the election. Or the public is just so used to it by now that they don’t see a reason for a change.

Any way you slice it, Mitt has stunk in the battleground states since day one.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Ed, you have once again exposed the fraud that is inherent in propaganda polls like this. You do us all a service by getting the truth out in such a prompt and clear manner. I sincerely thank you for all your work.

OneVision on August 1, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Oh well, we tried. I guess that Obama fellow is just too awesome. I live in PA, and I can tell you, we are really looking forward to having 5 coal fired power plants shut down next year and paying eight times our current electric rates.

Night Owl on August 1, 2012 at 8:53 AM

send an email to Mitt

http://www.mittromney.com/forms/suggestions

I just did and I live in Louisiana

an ad showing that Obama’s policies are flawed, hard on all PA residents, leading to electricity increases in the suburbs is just what we need to stress to win the urban areas of PA

audiotom on August 1, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Gosh, in liberal Connecticut a college joins up with the NYT and CBS to create objective truth….?

Did Quinnipiac’s mother ever warn it about the dangers of hanging around with unsavory company?

Don L on August 1, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Three and a half years of gangster government and Obama still has this kind of support? It doesn’t look good for the Republic.

Metanis on August 1, 2012 at 9:17 AM

“Rasmussen has a good track record”

Rasmussen was BRUTAL in the 2010 Senate elections…BRUTAL.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I don’t know which is better:

1. Letting polls go unchallenged so liberals can walk around in their “All is well!” bubble or

2. Challenging polls so swing voters stay enthused about their chances for voting Obummer out.

For pure emotional satisfaction on election night, I like number one. But I’m not sure Republicans can afford misinformation right now. Strategically, I guess we have to pop liberals’ bubbles along the way rather than saving up all the schadenfreude joy for election night. **sigh**

Grace_is_sufficient on August 1, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Posted elsewhere:


Obama didn’t build those polls – Over-sampling Democrats did.

Chip on August 1, 2012 at 9:18 AM

While relying upon 2010 midterm weightings is insane, its equally ridiculous to rely upon 2008 party samples. (lib-something or die)

You have no idea how the 2010 midterms will be duplicated again this November…..think Ted Cruz…..and the Tea Party Patriots are in place. Obama loses 15%-20% of his turn-out in ’08 and he’s swept in all 57 states!

Rovin on August 1, 2012 at 9:19 AM

You can skew a poll by overrepresenting party ID, but how do you skew the percentage of independents who support Obama or Romney? I mean, unless you’re at the point where you think these polls are entirely fabricated?

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

There have been enough books and essays over the years describing the inner workings of the networks, which detail their slant.

Is there a certification board for poll taking, like colleges have a body that grants or revokes accreditation?

It all depends, really, on the framing of the questions. The polls don’t have to be fabricated. All the institution needs is a good psychologist to write the questions to achieve a desired result, then cherry-pick the number of the lean of respondents in the sample. In sum, the sample isn’t as random as the pollsters try making us believe.

Just some ideas…

Liam on August 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

ITguy on August 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

This. Thanks.

mountainaires on August 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

All this blather about “riggged polls” and “biased samples” always comes from the losing side. The same thing was said in 08 when nobody here could believe that Obama was that popular.

I don’t get it, but numbers are what they are. There are rarely cases where the leading candidate loses the Presidential election.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:13 AM

You may want to take a gander at how the National Socialist Left did during the 2010 elections. Not pretty.

Chip on August 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Romney will win Florida. Obama will take Pennsylvania. I am relatively sure about that. Ohio is a tough one to predict.

I still think Obama will win. It is going to be very close this time, but unfortunately, I don’t think Romney is going to do it.

McDuck on August 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

This poll is skewed even further for the dems than the pollster itself is reporting. Look at this from the internals:

“Did you vote for Barack Obama or John McCain in 2008?”

Obama +13 percentage point margin in Florida

Obama +15 percentage point margin in Ohio.

Obama won Florida by three percentage points and Ohio by 4.6 percentage points.

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

You can skew a poll by overrepresenting party ID, but how do you skew the percentage of independents who support Obama or Romney? I mean, unless you’re at the point where you think these polls are entirely fabricated?

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Independents are self-identified. I don’t buy the idea that they really are all that independent. No American with the least bit of self-respect, integrity, or ethical scruple would admit to voting for the jug-eared Kenyan in the White House but that doesn’t mean they become Republicans by default. Nevertheless Democrats as a group are brain-dead idiots who will call themselves independent but still go ahead and vote to re-elect the guy who is destroying this nation.

But mark my words, if Obama gets re-elected, there will be riots in the streets of every major city in this nation within a year or so. At some point, real Americans are going to rise up against the filthy bastard and corrupt party who today begins forcing religious instutions to pay for contraception for dirty prostitutes attending Georgetown Law.

Happy Nomad on August 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I don’t get it, but numbers are what they are. There are rarely cases where the leading candidate loses the Presidential election.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Sooo…You’re ignoring the crooked oversampling?
My, how forgiving of you.

kingsjester on August 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I live in the panhandle of Florida and you would be hard pressed to find a handful of people voting for the Boy King this time around.

This is just one man’s $.02, but there is not a snowballs chance in hell that Dear Leader wins Florida.

Meat Fighter on August 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Ugh.

Can we PLEASE finally set up a government commission as part of the Census Bureau that releases party affiliation weightings on a monthly basis?

Any polls released MUST apply that weighting to their final number in order to be “Certified Accurate” according to the Census Bureau. I mean, c’mon, if we did this we would take a HUGE propaganda tool out of the hands of the MSM and yet nothing. No one even thinks of it. Instead we spend our time looking into steroid abuse.

I mean c’mon people, this corruption could be so easily solved.

mitchellvii on August 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

You mean a commission like the the CBO which said Obamacare wouldn’t cost us anything?

How about the one that has to adjust the serial unemployment figures up every time?

Why would you trust the reports of any government commission…or any government political party, which is very much the same animal?

Don L on August 1, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Wow. The Trolls are out today. Cruz won last night and today is Chick-Fil-A Appreciation day.

Mad, bros?

kingsjester on August 1, 2012 at 9:25 AM

If I had to predict now, I would say Romney eeks out Florida, but Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, as well as all the other battlegrounds.

Mitt seems like a poor man’s John Kerry.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

No matter how you look at those numbers, they’re brutal./

artist on August 1, 2012 at 9:26 AM

While relying upon 2010 midterm weightings is insane, its equally ridiculous to rely upon 2008 party samples. (lib-something or die)

You have no idea how the 2010 midterms will be duplicated again this November…..think Ted Cruz…..and the Tea Party Patriots are in place. Obama loses 15%-20% of his turn-out in ’08 and he’s swept in all 57 states!

Rovin on August 1, 2012 at 9:19 AM

I sincerely Hope that it’s enough of a blow-out…

[And honestly, what is there to really recommend even more Downgrade]

…. To ensure that the National Socialist Left doesn’t try to riot it’s way back into power.

Chip on August 1, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Methinks these polls are being manipulated so that when O loses the media can claim voter i.d. laws suppressed minority votes, that Romney is an illegitimate Prez (see legacy of Florida 2000). But the polls showed O cruising to a win. Raaaaacism!

Buy Danish on August 1, 2012 at 9:26 AM

It’s odd, but I’m not sure the economy is going to be a deciding factor in the election. Or the public is just so used to it by now that they don’t see a reason for a change.

Any way you slice it, Mitt has stunk in the battleground states since day one.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Then what will decide the election? Every survey shows that the top issues for Americans are the economy and jobs. And the vast majority of Americans think we’re on the wrong track. Does that mean all of those people will vote for Romney? No. But most of them will unless they’re truly content with 4 more years of this kind of economic malaise(or worse).

Doughboy on August 1, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Can we PLEASE finally set up a government commission as part of the Census Bureau that releases party affiliation weightings on a monthly basis?

Any polls released MUST apply that weighting to their final number in order to be “Certified Accurate” according to the Census Bureau. I mean, c’mon, if we did this we would take a HUGE propaganda tool out of the hands of the MSM and yet nothing. No one even thinks of it. Instead we spend our time looking into steroid abuse.

I mean c’mon people, this corruption could be so easily solved.

mitchellvii on August 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I’d support that.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

That’s the MSM’s plan.

Liam on August 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I agree…

sandee on August 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

O&Co. have given up on certain segments of the population, those they think likely to vote against them. So, their alternative is to try disheartening our side so that we stay home. It’s a voter-suppression drive aimed at us–not by use of physical force but by psychology using the more-subtle method of browbeating us into a feeling of defeat before we get off the launch pad.

Liam on August 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

these polls are a bit overly optimistic.

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

No, these polls are wildly Biased.

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

It’s odd, but I’m not sure the economy is going to be a deciding factor in the election. Or the public is just so used to it by now that they don’t see a reason for a change.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I used to twist my Gumby and Pokey figures into a pretzel too. That still didn’t make them a pretzel.

Flora Duh on August 1, 2012 at 9:28 AM

You have no idea how the 2010 midterms will be duplicated again this November…..think Ted Cruz…..and the Tea Party Patriots are in place. Obama loses 15%-20% of his turn-out in ’08 and he’s swept in all 57 states!
Rovin on August 1, 2012 at 9:19 AM

General elections are a very different animal. There is no way it is going to be a blowout.

McDuck on August 1, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Any way you slice it, Mitt has stunk in the battleground states since day one.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Not exactly, my friend. Just six weeks ago, numbers in PA alone caused people to ponder whether PA could go red. Granted it may still be a tough fight, but it is close enough that it is causing Obozo’s campaign to spend tons more money to defend that state than it likely anticipated.

OneVision on August 1, 2012 at 9:28 AM

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