CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls show Obama hitting 50% …

posted at 8:41 am on August 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’ve got good news and bad news for Hot Air readers today. First, the good news: After a few years of embarrassing sample skew problems in the CBS/NYT polls, the two media outlets have partnered with Quinnipiac, at least for this week’s look at three swing states — Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  The bad news?  I’m not sure the new partnership improved things.

First, let’s look at CBS’ lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

  • Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
  • Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
  • Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms.  Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms.  Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.

CBS/NYT polling: New partner … same issues.


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“In reality, AZ, MO, IN, NC, and FL are fairly safe for Romney. A truer list of battleground states would subtract those five and add a few more:”

What poll has FL as safe Romney?

What is Romney’s biggest lead in any current FL poll?

There is a significant distance from reality going on here.

Florida was supposed to be Romney’s safest swing state, but that is far from the case.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

No, skewed polling has been remarkably stable. The problem is that they have been stable in falsely showing Obama with a clear advantage

libfreeordie on August 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Fixed.

Here’s your problem with this particular “poll”. As Power Line reader James Farmer points out:

The internals show that, if people told the truth about how they voted in 2008, the pollsters managed to find a population that voted for Mr. Obama more frequently than actually occurred. It’s certainly possible that, out of political correctness, some people say they voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 when they did not, but no way is it extensive enough to explain the discrepancy.

While this is harder math than I care to do, it’s obvious that in Florida and Ohio, if you assumed that each person told the truth about who he voted for in 2008 and if you reformulate the poll results so that the percentage of claimed Obama and McCain voters match the actual result, then Romney would be leading in Florida and Ohio and perhaps a couple of points behind in Pennsylvania.

And Power Line also cites Richard Baehr at The American Thinker:

Major sampling error. Common for NYT/CBS polls. Quinnipiac used to be very reliable but this cycle has been much more Dem friendly. Could it be their partners?

-snip-

Obama has spent $15 million on state polling. They must not be getting numbers they like. Rasmussen says white voters are now splitting 56-35 for Romney. My guess is the other 9 will break Romney’s way too. Hard to see how Obama wins with these numbers for 70-74% of the electorate.

-snip-

The polls that are favorable to Obama can be self fulfilling for the people who like to vote for winners. So they may not be innocent.

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Given Team Zero’s fundraising difficulties this year, one can only assume based on the sheer volume of ads they’re buying in PA that they are damn near in panic mode.

Team Romney has yet to hit the airwaves here, though American Crossroads has been running the occasional ad.

steebo77 on August 1, 2012 at 10:08 AM

..our sincere thanks for your “on the ground” reports. I wish you would also return to your poll analysis. Your comments on stuff like that is masterful and are among my favorites!

The War Planner on August 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I hope alot of journalists and pollsters lose their careers over this election.

forest on August 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

.
There is another kind of “polling” which is constantly being done.

The trends for CBS, NBC, ABC, NYT, WaPo (seeing the trend here?) is they are attracting fewer and fewer viewers/readers which is resulting them receiving less and less network and media advertising spending.

A lot of the LSM is cutting their own throat. The ir consumers don’t like the product they are peddling … and their answer is to just double down by making their product worse.

I am REAL good with them taking this approach.

The polls WE see are being handcrafted* to give the illusion that Obama is slightly ahead but needs all the usual suspects to be sure to win.

* – Swing state polls are using ONLY 2008 Obama voter demographics for their participant selection based on 2010 census data by household.

How do I know?

Since March, we have had at least 30 voter survey calls from both inside and outside the swing state we live in but the surveyors are ONLY interested in talking to either my son or my daughter (college age)- asking for them by name while expressing NO interest in my or my wife’s input.

PolAgnostic on August 1, 2012 at 10:59 AM

“People have been known to lie to “pollsters”, kid.”

When?

That fantasy is about as accurate as The Bradley Effect, which was so powerful in 08!

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

See the poster from 10;32. Right near my post that you’re replying to.

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Pardon the ignorance, but I thought “likely voters” were more turnout predictive, which is why the MSM is always using “adults” or “registered voters”, plus sample weighting, to get their “D+ a bazillion” results.

eeyore on August 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

“I live in the panhandle of Florida and you would be hard pressed to find a handful of people voting for the Boy King this time around.

I own a small business in the Keys. Yesterday, I found the first ozero supporter in the last 6 months! They just don’t exist! Unless they are all afraid to let anyone know they will still vote for the Dear Leader.

rodguy911 on August 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

How do I know?

Since March, we have had at least 30 voter survey calls from both inside and outside the swing state we live in but the surveyors are ONLY interested in talking to either my son or my daughter (college age)- asking for them by name while expressing NO interest in my or my wife’s input.

PolAgnostic on August 1, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Which would mean Obinga is in even deeper do-do than originally thought……

excellent.

98ZJUSMC on August 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Government Motor sales dropped 6%. Stocks hovered around $20.

SloJoe’s new campaign slogan for Barry: “Bin Ladin is dead, and GM is sick.”

bayview on August 1, 2012 at 11:07 AM

You might want to check how Rasmussen did on the last batch of major elections, the 2010 Senate contests.

Yeah, let’s take a look at how Rasmussen’s predictions the day before the 2010 election turned out:

“As a result, Democrats face massive losses in tomorrow’s midterm election. Based upon our generic ballot polling and an analysis of individual races, we project that Nancy Pelosi’s party will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House, putting the GOP firmly in the majority.”

Final result: GOP wins 63 seats.

“Republicans will also win at least 25 of the 37 Senate elections. While the most likely outcome is that Republicans end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats, Democrats will need to win close races in West Virginia, Washington and California to protect their majority.”

Final result: GOP ends up with 47 Senate seats.

“There will also be a lot more Republican governors in office come January. It looks like six heartland states stretching from Pennsylvania to Iowa will trade a Democratic governor for a Republican one.”

Final result: GOP picks up 5 governerships.

Wow…could he have been any more off-the-mark?

He sh** all over himself on those and really hurt his reputation.

Soiled clothing is a feeling you Lefties will be all too familiar with come Nov. 6th after the American public flips off the Lightbringers switch.

Personally, I plan on setting my DVR to record CNN and MSNBC for the entire nite to enjoy – ad infinitum – the “I think I’m gonna throw up” looks on the faces of the assorted Lefty mouthpieces as they stammer about polls that were “evidently wrong”…and the “surprising GOP turnout” for Romney…and how the Dems class warfare tactics “failed to resonate with voters”.

So let them keep putting out this tripe: it’s only going to make his dismissal by the American people all the more enjoyable.

rvastar on August 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

The only way the lying nature of these polls will ever be exposed is if Mitt Romney makes an issue of it. Expectations shape reality, that is why the Left puts these BS polls out, and that false perception cannot be allowed to crystallize – Americans love a winner, and the less informed you are as a voter the more likely you are to be swayed by the movement of the herd.

The next time Romney sits down with a CBS reporter, before the reporter asks the first question, Romney should say “I have a bone to pick with you. Why are you letting the DNC do your polling for you? In 2004 there was even turnout in the presidential race. In 2008 it was D+7, but it 2010 the turnout was even again. What are you biasing your polls towards President Obama by 9 points”

motionview on August 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

This must be the same group that taught the AGW true believers how to hide the decline in Michael Mann’s hockey stick.

chemman on August 1, 2012 at 11:21 AM

That fantasy is about as accurate as The Bradley Effect, which was so powerful in 08!

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

..you have NO FREAKING IDEA about the Bradley effect. It was the result of an ineffectual (but “liked”) black Los Angeles mayor and former track star for UCLA and police chief who was known statewide to be a doddering klutz versus a lawyer who had a long and successful career as a Republican politician in the state. (Yes, there were once Republicans in California with larger-than-BB-nutsacks.)

Obama in 2008 was an untested, unchallenged cypher. He is now borne out to be an incompetent and incapable chief executive WITH A TRACK RECORD OF UTTER FAILURE.

You wanna see Bradley Effect, old son? Wake up and read the headlines in 98 days.

as Del would say:

F-

The War Planner on August 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

The next time Romney sits down with a CBS reporter, before the reporter asks the first question, Romney should say “I have a bone to pick with you. Why are you letting the DNC do your polling for you? In 2004 there was even turnout in the presidential race. In 2008 it was D+7, but it 2010 the turnout was even again. What are you biasing your polls towards President Obama by 9 points”

motionview on August 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

..I’d let the tools continue their nap on the couch. Much more delicious will be the expression on their faces on 7 November.

The War Planner on August 1, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Since March, we have had at least 30 voter survey calls from both inside and outside the swing state we live in but the surveyors are ONLY interested in talking to either my son or my daughter (college age)- asking for them by name while expressing NO interest in my or my wife’s input.

PolAgnostic on August 1, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I live is a VERY liberal town. Liberal, liberal, liberal, and in a blue state. We had an O-bot pollster COME TO THE DOOR looking for my college-age kid. I said we weren’t interested and started to shut the door. The guy says, “Will your daughter be voting in November?” I said “Of course.” He asked, “Will she be voting for Obama?” I said “It isn’t any of your business who anyone in this house is voting for.” He looked TOTALLY dejected — terrified, actually. He looked terrified, like his door-to-door effort had shown him that something awful is going to happen to his boyfriend in November — and he just walked away.

This is a liberal town in a blue state, and barack is trying to shore up his brain-dead teenage vote. His internal polls must be HORRIFIC!!!

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

“In reality, AZ, MO, IN, NC, and FL are fairly safe for Romney. A truer list of battleground states would subtract those five and add a few more:”

What poll has FL as safe Romney?

What is Romney’s biggest lead in any current FL poll?

There is a significant distance from reality going on here.

Florida was supposed to be Romney’s safest swing state, but that is far from the case.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Look, the sample in these polls is ridiculous. I don’t think we can expect 2010 midterm splits, but to suggest the Dems will outperform ’08 is, as you say, a “significant distance from reality”. So, the numbers are mostly meaningless, push polls designed to help Obama and nothing more.

But, even if we take these numbers at face value, compared to Ohio and Virginia FL is a safer swing state for Romney. It’s not a leap, either, to believe IN and NC will flip back to Republican, given Obama’s weaknesses there, and I don’t think AZ was ever seriously in play in the first place. The real worry with FL, imo, is Rick Scott’s unpopularity. I wonder if he might drag down the Republican ticket, especially with independents.

I don’t think PA is winnable unless it’s a landslide, so I’m hoping the campaign focuses more on WI and MI to compensate for a possible loss in OH and VA (and NV).

changer1701 on August 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Now on Drudge:
Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval

Source

In other words, Obama is below water in 37 states, including all swing states. And we’re supposed to believe this bogus CBS/NYT polling showing him reaching 50%?

TarheelBen on August 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Now on Drudge:
Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval

Source

In other words, Obama is below water in 37 states, including all swing states. And we’re supposed to believe this bogus CBS/NYT polling showing him reaching 50%?

TarheelBen on August 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Ouch! That’s gonna leave a mark on CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac! And Gallup STILL oversamples dems, yet barack is underwater in ALL OF THE SWING STATES.

barack’s campaign’s internal polls must be HORRIFIC!!! No wonder he’s headed back to Ohio today. I wonder how many points Romney ACTUALLY leads in that state…

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM

BILL CLINTON TOLD BARAK OBAMA, “PLEASE,GO” during a Christmas time press conference that he dominated. I can’t wait for Nov. 6th to do the same thing — except it will be more along the lines of: Get the hell out of here.

Mutnodjmet on August 1, 2012 at 11:49 AM

They manipulate poll samples because they want to depress conservative turnout and swing mush Moderates to Obama via peer pressure.

jp on August 1, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Depends on where in CT. I’m not feeling anywhere near as lonely as I used to.

Does anyone know whether the Ø ad placements on cable channels like TNT are national or just by state or local markets? Because I’m seeing tons of that Romney-singing-America-the-Beautiful-while-we-try-to-convince-you-he’s-unAmerican. Last night between Rizzoli and Isles and Franklin and Basch, I think we only saw it twice, and that’s a slow night. Last week on some channels I was seeing it every . single . ad break. (Which is one reason I’ve started using my DVR a lot again.)

At this stage of the campaign it seems somewhat overkill if it’s national. If it’s specifically here Connecticut, it’s past desperate.

LibraryGryffon on August 1, 2012 at 11:58 AM

At this stage of the campaign it seems somewhat overkill if it’s national. If it’s specifically here Connecticut, it’s past desperate.

LibraryGryffon on August 1, 2012 at 11:58 AM

I think ad buys like that are usually done on the more local/regional/media market level.

As for CT, it’s only been polled a handful of times over the past 6 months (twice by Quinnipiac, I believe) and shows something like an Obama lead of 12 points. In 2008 Obama won the state by 22. If internal campaign polling has shown the trend of erosion continuing, I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama’s only up by 8-10 points in CT now.

steebo77 on August 1, 2012 at 12:03 PM

What I find annoying is the conservative talk radio station here in Denver always report these bogus polls as if they’re fact. KNUS710 just reported this bs.

jawkneemusic on August 1, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Okay, it’s a local report, but I think indicative of the U.S.
I live in NC, on my way into the city, I pass through a heavily, and I mean heavily black community.

Last election at this time, Obama signs everywhere, bumper stickers, yard signs, banners on business, town hall meetings posted, rallies held, it looked like a July 4th parade dedicated to Obama, that was months before he was even selected, it was even more dramatic as it was apparent Hillary was out…
And now, less than 100 days before the election…no yard signs (yes I even traveled off the beaten path and wove by way around the area), no business signs, no bumper stickers (save the ones from the last election), it is a “ghost town” of none involvement. Almost eerie…now they will vote by 98% for Obama, but much fewer, much, much fewer, the fever pitch is over, the excitement is done, the people have left the stands and gone home, it’s the fourth quarter and their team can’t win.

right2bright on August 1, 2012 at 12:12 PM

This is a liberal town in a blue state, and barack is trying to shore up his brain-dead teenage vote. His internal polls must be HORRIFIC!!!

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

He is done for…I am telling you, the enthusiasm from his base is non-existent.

right2bright on August 1, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Unless they are all afraid to let anyone know they will still vote for the Dear Leader.

rodguy911 on August 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Now you got it. Liberals will vote for a rock as long as it has (D) next to it. They have voted for dead people in recent elections.

riddick on August 1, 2012 at 12:22 PM

They manipulate poll samples because they want to depress conservative turnout and swing mush Moderates to Obama via peer pressure.

I disagree. They know that conservative turnout is going to dwarf Nov. 2010. And they know that any undecided “independents” are not going to vote for Obama at this point – if they’re still undecided, that means they’re not for Obama and after 3.5 years, that’s not going to change by November. But it’s those voters who are the targets of these skewed polls, as well as the targets of the US news media’s and Obama’s relentless attacks on Romney.

Team Obama doesn’t run ads touting his successes – which are non-existent but that’s besides the point – because they know that the only people who believe he’s been a successful President are the 20% of the population who are Progressives. And they’d still vote for him if he ate a living human baby on stage during one of the debates in the fall. As such, it’s a complete waste of money for him to run “look at what I did” ads. Conversely, they know that every conservative in this country – 40% of the population – would turn out to vote for a wet wash cloth if it was the candidate on Nov. 7th.

They know that their only desperate hope is to poison Romney’s image in the minds of as many non-Progressive, non-conservative voters as possible in order to get them to just stay home. That’s the point of these polls…to make that guy who’s kinda sorta thinking about voting for Romney this fall to just say “Ah, forget it. He’s behind in the polls anyway, so why bother?”

Luckily for us, it isn’t going to work. Coming around the end of this month, a tidal wave of Team Romney money is going to start washing over Obama and the American public. When they’re done, those independent voters will be too afraid to stay home in November.

My prediction: 55%-45% Romney

rvastar on August 1, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Sampling ? How about just straight up Bogus !!! But it is better that the media keep Ocommie up front- spurring the “Mittivation”.

As far as TRUE swing states go, you have to factor in the 2008 results- not simply base it on exit poll D/R/I sampling to forecast an outcome.

Fla was 51% Obie -48.5% McCain- Now this is a TRUE swing state. It doesn’t matter how you play with the sampling numbers, there is NO WAY Ocommie has a 6 point lead in FLA. AT BEST- his only chance is to get near the 51% threshold he got last time. That is his BEST CASE SCENARIO.

Anyone who tells you otherwise is dishonest. The Fraud occupying the WH has won FLA by 200,000 votes- so 100,000 swing votes is a bare minimum to change the 2008 outcome- out of 8 million + votes. If you don’t think hopenchange has lost a net of 100,000 votes (even w/o all the anti-Israel sentiment), well………I’ve got some swamp land for sale.

FlaMurph on August 1, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I own a small business in the Keys. Yesterday, I found the first ozero supporter in the last 6 months! They just don’t exist! Unless they are all afraid to let anyone know they will still vote for the Dear Leader.
rodguy911 on August 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Never fear there are still more than enough brain dead sheep here in the Broward-Dade county area that will still back the Scoamf. But then what do you expect out of an area that puts the likes of Wasserpig-Shultz in office.

bbinfl on August 1, 2012 at 12:28 PM

He is done for…I am telling you, the enthusiasm from his base is non-existent.

right2bright on August 1, 2012 at 12:14 PM

I agree. The Obamamedia can do these fake polls all they want, but I’m going to go with what I see with my own eyes, and what I see is an obama campaign so desperate he’s begging Bill Clinton to save him with a convention speech. I see a campaign spending millions on ads in states that no one thought would be competitive. I see a campaign heading back to Ohio again today, desperate to find votes in a state they clearly know they’re losing. I see a campaign canvassing in person in liberal towns in blue states. I see a campaign in which the candidate is doing stare-into-the-camera-I-am-not-a-witch ads and where the candidate himself is doing here’s-how-you-send-me-money ads. I see a democrat media desperately, desperately trying to hang anything on their boyfriend’s challenger as a “gaffe,” throwing away any pretense of objectivity in their desperation. I see a campaign who cannot scare up any of the celebrity endorsers it had last time around.

And I see Romney looking fairly comfortable, quite confident, brushing all of this off as a few pesky flies.

This tells me that their internal polls — the ones where they do NOT get the handy democrat skew the Obamamedia provides — are absolutely horrendous for barack, and fantastic for Romney.

Get back to me when it’s Romney who looks desperate and barack who looks looks confident.

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 12:31 PM

But, even if we take these numbers at face value, compared to Ohio and Virginia FL is a safer swing state for Romney.

changer1701 on August 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Sorry, but Romney really has to have all three.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 12:40 PM

They know that their only desperate hope is to poison Romney’s image in the minds of as many non-Progressive, non-conservative voters as possible in order to get them to just stay home. That’s the point of these polls…to make that guy who’s kinda sorta thinking about voting for Romney this fall to just say “Ah, forget it. He’s behind in the polls anyway, so why bother?”

The ironic thing that never fails to amuse is those same polls are the reason Romney is the nominee.

Luckily for us, it isn’t going to work. Coming around the end of this month, a tidal wave of Team Romney money is going to start washing over Obama and the American public. When they’re done, those independent voters will be too afraid to stay home in November.

My prediction: 55%-45% Romney

rvastar on August 1, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Romney isn’t going to win just by telling us how horrible Obama is. I don’t care how much money Team Romney pours in. And 55-45 means a Reagan-like landslide. That’s just fantasy. It’s going to be an Everest climb for Romney just to hit 270 EVs. That’s just reality right now in a polarized country.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Florida was supposed to be Romney’s safest swing state, but that is far from the case.

gumbyandpokey on August 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

.
You couldnt be more wrong about FLA.

But thats a good thing.

FlaMurph on August 1, 2012 at 12:47 PM

In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio.

I worry this may be so.

Negative adds do work but they also discourage many from even voting at all.

My dad in Texas did not vote because all the adds were so negative.

I would imagine that the Democrats would not be nearly as likely to have these ads affect them in a way as to not vote.

So far it looks to me like 2012 will go down as the most negative ad election in history.

Add this to the fact that the base really does not like Mitt.

Levine even hates Mitt.

I worry a lot about turn out though the base will turn out for solid Conservatives like Cruz.

Steveangell on August 1, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Luckily for us, it isn’t going to work. Coming around the end of this month, a tidal wave of Team Romney money is going to start washing over Obama and the American public. When they’re done, those independent voters will be too afraid to stay home in November.

My prediction: 55%-45% Romney

rvastar on August 1, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Yes in your dreams.

I live in reality and I remember 2008.

I remember people saying the same thing then.

Well they were wrong.

We all knew in 2010 that we would do well because of the energy of the Tea Party. Well they are energised this year as well they are itching to put people like Dewhurst and Mitt out of office. That is right Mitt is no better than Dewhurst and he is not wanted in office by the Tea Party no more than Dewhurst.

Steveangell on August 1, 2012 at 12:54 PM

It’s going to be an Everest climb for Romney just to hit 270 EVs. That’s just reality right now in a polarized country.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 12:46 PM

you really mean Mount Kenya (only 17k el.)…. not really Everest.

FlaMurph on August 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

I live is a VERY liberal town. Liberal, liberal, liberal, and in a blue state. We had an O-bot pollster COME TO THE DOOR looking for my college-age kid. I said we weren’t interested and started to shut the door. The guy says, “Will your daughter be voting in November?”

Rational Thought on August 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I find it incredibly creepy that they actually know that you have a college aged kid.

JPeterman on August 1, 2012 at 12:58 PM

It’s going to be an Everest climb for Romney just to hit 270 EVs. That’s just reality right now in a polarized country.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 12:46 PM

you really mean Mount Kenya (only 17k el.)…. not really Everest.

FlaMurph on August 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

No, I mean Everest. Look at this map. Romney could win FL, OH and VA and still would need an additional blue-state flip. Possible? Sure. Just not likely.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 1:02 PM

No, I mean Everest. Look at this map. Romney could win FL, OH and VA and still would need an additional blue-state flip. Possible? Sure. Just not likely.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 1:02 PM

He would only need just one of OR, NV, NM, CO, IA, WI, MI, PA, or NH.

One out of nine states.

Not likely? For realz?

steebo77 on August 1, 2012 at 1:11 PM

He would only need just one of OR, NV, NM, CO, IA, WI, MI, PA, or NH.

One out of nine states.

Not likely? For realz?

steebo77 on August 1, 2012 at 1:11 PM

AFTER hitting the FL-OH-VA trifecta. LOL. Come on.

The only way I see Romney winning is in some sort of tidal-wave landslide. In other words, a replication of 2010. And I think that’s just not happening this time around.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 1:16 PM

obama was ahead of mccain by around 7 back 2008. we use to call those polls lies too.

renalin on August 1, 2012 at 1:37 PM

What our Trolls here seem to forget is that C-BS actually ran a Fake News Story in 2004 to try to swing that election to the Democrat, and their partner in crime the NY Times ran a Fake News Story in 2008 about the Republican nominee that year. And the NYT endorsed O’bama that year and will happily do so again this year.

Translated: They both want O’bama to win. And will do anything to shape public opinion to try and do so. This is amply evidenced today, as C-BS Radio “News” has been breathlessly flogging this Fake Poll as their lead story all day.

And the C-BS/NYT “polls” have a long and illustrious history of oversampling Democrats; in the period between 2008 and 2010 here at Hot Gas we documented numerous “polls” they did that even oversampled Democrats by as many as 14 to 19 points!

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 1:39 PM

obama was ahead of mccain by around 7 back 2008. we use to call those polls lies too.

renalin on August 1, 2012 at 1:37 PM

In the beginning of August 2008, McCain was actually ahead in several “polls” and within the margin of error in many others. In fact he was ahead in the Reuters/Zogby one, the GWU Battleground one, and even the LA Times had the two tied.

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 1:43 PM

So we got gumby and libfreeorshitmyself trolling here. Where’s inthemiddle, urban and upperwest? Or for that matter, where are the ABRs and the GAWY JOHNSON trolls? They’d normally be on topics like this like stink on shit.

wargamer6 on August 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Either they realize there’s futility in trying to defend a +9 skew in polling, they’ve had enough of being laughed at or they’ve just slept in.

Can’t imagine how bad reality is if this is what they are tossing out to the masses.

Keep up the good work! Maybe the dems can find some disabled people to insult.

kim roy on August 1, 2012 at 1:47 PM

What our Trolls here seem to forget …

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 1:39 PM

The trolls are not remembering or forgetting anything.

They are just doing what trolls do, trolling.

farsighted on August 1, 2012 at 1:48 PM

obama was ahead of mccain by around 7 back 2008. we use to call those polls lies too.

renalin on August 1, 2012 at 1:37 PM

If the samples were skewed inappropriately and the questions were loaded and the sample set itself was flawed, then yes, they deserved to be called lies. Like now, where they are oversampling democrats by a large margin.

Then add the margin of error, which we can pretty much add on as the sample is badly weighted/poor sample/loaded questions.

Really not a difficult concept to want a clean and true sample – but then some people don’t want an honest sample/poll.

kim roy on August 1, 2012 at 1:53 PM

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/08/propaganda_poll_shows_obama_ahead.html

The above link shows an analysis of the CBS/NYT/sQ-poll by American Thinker. The poll asked respondents for whom they had voted in 2008:

Florida: Obama 53%, McCain 40%.
Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 38%.
PA: Obama 54%, McCain 40%.

With a sample like that, CBS/NYT/sQ gets Obama leads of
Florida 51-45
Ohio 50-44
PA 53-42.

Relative to the votes of this sample in 2008, the net change in voting intentions is:

FL: Obama -2, Romney +5
OH: Obama -3, Romney +6
PA: Obama -1, Romney +2

In 2008, Obama won Florida by 2.8%, Ohio by 4.7%, and Pennsylvania by 10.0%. If we apply the changes in voting intentions of the NYT/CBS/sQ sample to the 2008 election results (a 7% shift toward Romney in FL, a 9% shift in Ohio, and a 3% shift in PA), this poll predicts that Romney would win both Florida and Ohio by 4%, but lose PA by 7%.

If Romney wins the McCain states plus FL and OH, plus IN and NC (likely) plus VA and one other state (uncertain), he will be President.

It would be great if other ShameStreamMedia polls would ask respondents for whom they voted in 2008. This would enable analysts to apply the shifts in voting intentions between 2008 and 2012 to the 2008 election results to take the sQ (skew) out of the polls!

Steve Z on August 1, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Good post Capt Ed..Like your analysis!..:)

Dire Straits on August 1, 2012 at 1:58 PM

In the beginning of August 2008, McCain was actually ahead in several “polls” and within the margin of error in many others. In fact he was ahead in the Reuters/Zogby one, the GWU Battleground one, and even the LA Times had the two tied.

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 1:43 PM

McCain led for about 15 minutes following the interview with Rick Warren. Other than that, after March he trailed Obama pretty consistently until the convention. Just because the media are liberal doesn’t mean that Romney’s actually 10 points ahead. After all, as I said, those same polls showed that Romney is Da Man, and they were never really closely questioned then. Why now?

What our Trolls here seem to forget …

Del Dolemonte on August 1, 2012 at 1:39 PM

The trolls are not remembering or forgetting anything.

They are just doing what trolls do, trolling.

farsighted on August 1, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Some are trolls, some are called trolls simply because they’re not huddled in the little Mittbot echo chamber.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 2:03 PM

It is indeed a narrow window for Romney to win the Electoral College..Plus it always tough to unseat a sitting POTUS..BUT the window is open..I hope Romney can crash thru that window in November!..:):)

Dire Straits on August 1, 2012 at 2:03 PM

If Romney wins the McCain states plus FL and OH, plus IN and NC (likely) plus VA and one other state (uncertain), he will be President.

Steve Z on August 1, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Well, yeah, exactly. And if I pick the right numbers I’ll win the Power Ball lottery.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Personally, I plan on setting my DVR to record CNN and MSNBC for the entire nite to enjoy – ad infinitum – the “I think I’m gonna throw up” looks on the faces of the assorted Lefty mouthpieces as they stammer about polls that were “evidently wrong”…and the “surprising GOP turnout” for Romney…and how the Dems class warfare tactics “failed to resonate with voters”.

rvastar on August 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Now, that is an idea :)… Though, to be honest, watching them once would be enough schadenfreudic and catharctic for moi :)…

jimver on August 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

If Romney wins the McCain states plus FL and OH, plus IN and NC (likely) plus VA and one other state (uncertain), he will be President.

Steve Z on August 1, 2012 at 1:53

IN and NC will go to romney no doubt. Probably FL too, but it will be close..OH is a hard one, maybe he can pick up another one to compensate there. Virginia – not impossible, people keep mentioning the high numbers of government employees in the state, but they forgot to mention that a lot of them are military and military defense contrators and we know how they vote usually…

jimver on August 1, 2012 at 2:23 PM

He would only need just one of OR, NV, NM, CO, IA, WI, MI, PA, or NH.

One out of nine states.

Out of these states, the most winnable for Romney are CO, IA, NH, NV, and WI, in about that order, but he needs to concentrate on FL, OH, and VA, and look for one other state out of the 5 states above.

Steve Z on August 1, 2012 at 2:28 PM

ED,

If you know the owner(s) of Real Clear Politics I think it would be great to suggest ot them to add Party ID’s breakdown next to each poll they publish and also add this Party ID’s breakdown next to the average polls that they publish. This way when people read a poll they will have a much better picture of how accurate it is.

Thank you.

mnjg on August 1, 2012 at 2:36 PM

IN and NC will go to romney no doubt. Probably FL too, but it will be close.

jimver on August 1, 2012 at 2:23 PM

.
Fla will not be close.
Bush beat Kerry by 5 in 2004.
Hopeychangey was too “historic” for ANY R TO Overcome – Blackman yada yada yada
Media had done a great job smearing Bush 3- trashing Palin – and the great one made it here by 2.5%

2010 we elected an R Gov – who had been fined for Medicare Fraud.

He’s gone down from there, Not up. Oy vey !!!!!!!!!

R gets the square.

FlaMurph on August 1, 2012 at 2:49 PM

The message yesterday should have been loud and clear.

The people are sick and tired of Establishment Politicians.

Mitt is as Establishment as it gets.

He is already convincing Republicans to vote poorly on issues making Obama even more powerful. This is against everything the Tea Party stands for.

Mitt will not win this because.

Well Mitt will not win because he is not even trying to win. He is just trying to make Obama lose. He can not give Republicans a reason to vote for him because Republican is a foreign language to him. He has no idea what Republicans are.

Steveangell on August 1, 2012 at 3:01 PM

.
Fla will not be close.
Bush beat Kerry by 5 in 2004.
Hopeychangey was too “historic” for ANY R TO Overcome – Blackman yada yada yada
Media had done a great job smearing Bush 3- trashing Palin – and the great one made it here by 2.5%

2010 we elected an R Gov – who had been fined for Medicare Fraud.

He’s gone down from there, Not up. Oy vey !!!!!!!!!

R gets the square.

FlaMurph on August 1, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Really hope you are right, the last thing you need the hordes of dim lawyers descending unto FL for recounts or god knows what….

jimver on August 1, 2012 at 3:02 PM

The desperation is palpable – not only on the parasitic traitor left, but on the paranoid lunatic fringe on our side, as their dire predictions are all circling the drain.

Adjoran on August 1, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Obama has been running ads in my blue state of CA but I haven’t seen one Romney ad. I don’t think that Romney should spend any money here but I’m surprised that Obama is spending money in a state they are sure to win.

Dollayo on August 1, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Obama has been running ads in my blue state of CA but I haven’t seen one Romney ad. I don’t think that Romney should spend any money here but I’m surprised that Obama is spending money in a state they are sure to win.

Dollayo on August 1, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Exactly. Here in bluest of blue Connecticut (I think overall we’re bluer than CA by a fair margin), I’m seeing multiple Ø adds every night, but not one single Mitt ad. If Ø’s team feels they have to shore up the vote here…..

LibraryGryffon on August 1, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I get so tired of this crap. I wonder what the internal polling of the campaigns say.

Terrye on August 1, 2012 at 6:32 PM

The desperation is palpable – not only on the parasitic traitor left, but on the paranoid lunatic fringe on our side, as their dire predictions are all circling the drain.

Adjoran on August 1, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Romney pulls out to an 8-point lead, you’ll have a point. Until then you sound like Baghdad Bob.

ddrintn on August 1, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Obama’s chances of re-election are inversely proportional to the growth in the number of trolls on this board.

eyedoc on August 1, 2012 at 6:44 PM

By the way, all Romney has to do to get elected is win the states George Bush won in either 2004 or 2000, certainly not an insurrmountable task with the economy going down the toilet. He’d even wind up with more electoral votes than Bush did by winning those same states. All Romney has to do is give some kind of a plausible alternative to Obama’s policies which have already been proven not to work and he should be fine.

eyedoc on August 1, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Bogus samples are…bogus.

Othniel on August 1, 2012 at 9:24 PM

This tells me that their internal polls — the ones where they do NOT get the handy democrat skew the Obamamedia provides — are absolutely horrendous for barack, and fantastic for Romney.

Get back to me when it’s Romney who looks desperate and barack who looks looks confident.

Rational Thought

Speaking of internal polls

AFTER hitting the FL-OH-VA trifecta. LOL. Come on.

ddrintn

Yeah, that could never happen. Just ask George Bush, who did it twice.

Some are trolls, some are called trolls simply because they’re not huddled in the little Mittbot echo chamber.

ddrintn

And some are Palinistas who are stuck in their own echo chamber, and who lost touch with reality when she dropped the curtain on their Palin for president fantasy, and are now reduced to lashing out at everyone except the person responsible for jerking them around for two years or so.

xblade on August 1, 2012 at 9:34 PM

AFTER hitting the FL-OH-VA trifecta. LOL. Come on.

ddrintn

Yeah, that could never happen. Just ask George Bush, who did it twice.

And Reagan won 49 states in one election, I think. Dream on, ‘bot.

Some are trolls, some are called trolls simply because they’re not huddled in the little Mittbot echo chamber.

ddrintn

And some are Palinistas who are stuck in their own echo chamber, and who lost touch with reality when she dropped the curtain on their Palin for president fantasy, and are now reduced to lashing out at everyone except the person responsible for jerking them around for two years or so.

xblade on August 1, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Why do you ‘bots have this psychopathic need to bring up Palin constantly? She has nothing to do with Romney’s trailing Obama.

ddrintn on August 2, 2012 at 1:30 PM

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