Morgan Stanley strategist: Wall Street’s betting on a Romney victory

posted at 8:41 pm on July 30, 2012 by Allahpundit

I want to believe, but … what’s happened lately to make Wall Street believe this election isn’t still a toss-up? Offhand, I can’t think of one statistical model or betting market that has Mitt winning. Is there some concrete indicator that they’re seeing or is this more of a “we’re not actually going to re-elect this tool” gut feeling? Maybe they’re keyed into the fact that O’s hit Romney with the kitchen sink on Bain and basically nothing’s happened to Mitt’s numbers?

This guy is really the political equivalent of a Cramer-esque stock picker. If he says he detects a trend, the trend becomes more likely to happen simply because people are buying and selling based on his advice. If Wall Street analysts start telling America that the economy’s coming back if Romney gets elected (and based on their donation habits, they are), well, that’s a nifty reason to go out and make sure Romney gets elected. Or at least it might have been five years ago, when people still kinda sorta maybe trusted Wall Street.

“At the end of the day, we are not really worried that Europe is going to be ‘solved’ or that its economy will strongly grow. We also don’t think strong corporate profitability relative to expectations will save the day,” [Morgan Stanley strategist Adam Parker] said.

“To us, the biggest bull case for US equities is based on the huge cash balances and the potential belief that they will be more actively and productively deployed. The biggest possibility here would be Romney winning the presidential election.”…

“Many investors I have spoken with believe that if the S&P 500 should rise between July 31 and Oct. 31, it would signal an impending Romney victory,” said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P.

“The recovering market would be a sign that the perceived anti-Wall Street policies of the current administration will soon come to an end, as the incumbent would be replaced and that a plurality on the Potomac might even return as a result of the early November outcome,” he added. “Unfortunately for these presumptive prognosticators, history indicates, but does not guarantee, that the opposite has usually been true.”

Supposedly, the July 31-October 31 trend has been accurate 82 percent of the time over the past century.

I wonder if Team O is tempted to make hay of the speculation. The idea of the market rising if your opponent’s elected is, er, difficult to spin, but if there’s one thing Obama HQ is good at, it’s class warfare. A crude ad about bankers placing their bets on Mitt to avert tax hikes on their mansions and dressage horses would be right up their alley. They could use that scarrrry black and white photo of Romney waving around money in his Bain days and everything. Exit question via Ace: Wouldn’t a market rally just before the election actually help … Obama?


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Exit question via Ace: Wouldn’t a market rally just before the election actually help … Obama?

“There will be time for making a profit….now is not that time”
“If you were successful, you did get there on your own”

I don’t know…

Electrongod on July 30, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Don’t know what to think about this, yet.

listens2glenn on July 30, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Morgan Stanley strategist: Wall Street’s betting on a Romney victory

…it would make bluegill jump out of the water!

KOOLAID2 on July 30, 2012 at 8:53 PM

John Kerry was winning at this point in 2004 and the One is not outperforming Kerry. All signs point to a LV lead for Romney when Gallup switches over. The libs are hanging on these RV polls as though the election is a done deal. I think they’re in for a rude awakening quite soon.

msmveritas on July 30, 2012 at 8:53 PM

These are the same smart guys that backed Obama in 2008??

Bunch of morons, if you ask me… who cares what they think?

Khun Joe on July 30, 2012 at 8:55 PM

There’s no question in my mind that a Romney presidency would result in the economy “coming back.” I’m no financial wizard, but I can’t imagine that I’m alone in that belief….

Syzygy on July 30, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Premature Exuberance.

Fleuries on July 30, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Does Blue Horshoe love Mitt?

50sGuy on July 30, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Wouldn’t a market rally just before the election actually help … Obama

yes if it’s construed as Obama’s fault.

gracie on July 30, 2012 at 8:58 PM

And so am I. Just what else is there to look forward to? Four more years of an anemic economy.

I wanted about four other GOP candidates before Romney, however, since he appears to be the frontrunner, he will do in a pinch.

the new aesthetic on July 30, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Horseshoe

50sGuy on July 30, 2012 at 8:58 PM

The swing state polls are brutally bad for Romney. He has zero chance in Ohio, and without Ohio, he cannot win.

gumbyandpokey on July 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

These are the same smart guys that backed Obama in 2008??

Bunch of morons, if you ask me… who cares what they think?

Khun Joe on July 30, 2012 at 8:55 PM

They knew he was going to win, and they backed the winner. Investing is politically (and, er, ethically) agnostic. It makes or it doesn’t. I can make money when things are collapsing; I can make money when things are exploding; but I have to assess the thing correctly.

Axe on July 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Don’t know what to think about this, yet.

listens2glenn on July 30, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Expect some optimism that results in some improvement even before the election; expect that improvement to hit a ceiling and hold until a few very uncertain things about policy are worked out.

Your extended forecast: Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. High near 90. Lows near 82.

*music*

Axe on July 30, 2012 at 9:04 PM

The swing state polls are brutally bad for Romney. He has zero chance in Ohio, and without Ohio, he cannot win.

gumbyandpokey on July 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Much like your president’s 8% unemployment prediction, your prediction means nothing.

The Count on July 30, 2012 at 9:07 PM

gumbyandpokey is obviously the foremost authority in election science

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Exit question via Ace: Wouldn’t a market rally just before the election actually help … Obama?

No. If Jesus Christ were to descend in October and tell everyone that God, the Father, wanted Obama, AKA Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers, to win re-election, even that would not help Obama. So, a market rally, a market dive, or a market going sideways is not, in my view, going to save the FPOBA.

TXUS on July 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

There’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. A business friendly administration will set this economy on fire.

After nearly 4 years of this Marxist Malaise the Wall St. guys may be throwing in with Romney….. they still haven’t forgotten the glorious 80′s Reagan years. Perhaps this guy knows where the money is going. They’re watching polls. And, yes, they’re whores.

Can’t blame them for not wanting McCain… but O’Bummer? Well, they made their mistakes.

The only thing I care about is turning the ship around. The BO administration is like watching replays of the Titanic sinking.
As polls improve for Romney the market may well move ahead in anticipation. That does not mean that things will improve out here for those looking for jobs, however. That will probably come later. So, no. I don’t think a stock market anticipation of a Romney win will help president putt.

Cody1991 on July 30, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Hey, AP. You got a plug from http://legalinsurrection.com/

davidk on July 30, 2012 at 9:18 PM

gumbyandpokey on July 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Seems to me that gumbydopey might have forgotten how the buckeye state voted in 2010. Complete blowout as I recall, from Kasich and Portman to the wipeout in the statehouse. Of course that all has changed now that Obeyme’s policies are working out so well.

phillysfinest on July 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM

gumbyandpokey is obviously the foremost authority in election science

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

So you smarter than Nate Silver 538 fame?

67% chance Obama wins Ohio.

Really the link is on the top of the page did you not bother before jumping the gun because of your Mitt Blinders?

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Im2bofwiw, an Obama victory further shrinks and contracts the economy/country as one might react to a gut punch or holding an
M-80 in your hand as it goes off. This goes double for private capital, which if I had any I’d bury it underground among the rodenti until Obama is out of office whenever that happens.

If Romney wins we’ll see a cathartic almost immediate expansion in the economy. Woody-like and celebratory, as in ding-dong-the-witch-is-dead lets throw some money around and fix this place up. Once and if they see Obama’s curled up feet under the house, private capital will go nuts…for awhile.

How long a while depends on a whole host of things which need not be discussed here.

It could be argued that if Obama wins, the economy shrinks again pretty quickly and pretty substantially. Romney wins and theres a big private capital party expansion that buys maybe a few years.

In the meantime we’ll find out if there’s seriousness in the nation to fix what needs to be fixed, or if there isnt.

Sacramento on July 30, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Seems to me that gumbydopey might have forgotten how the buckeye state voted in 2010. Complete blowout as I recall, from Kasich and Portman to the wipeout in the statehouse. Of course that all has changed now that Obeyme’s policies are working out so well.

phillysfinest on July 30, 2012 at 9:19 PM

They voted in Conservative Republicans.

Mitt Romney is a Liberal Moderate Progressive.

They do not want Mitt they do want Conservative Republicans.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Really the link is on the top of the page did you not bother before jumping the gun because of your Mitt Blinders?

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 9:21 PM

wtf is a mitt blinder?

and yes…I smarter than both you and Nate Silver

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:26 PM

The swing state polls are brutally bad for Romney. He has zero chance in Ohio, and without Ohio, he cannot win.

gumbyandpokey on July 30, 2012 at 8:59 PM

No way Romney loses Ohio. Here’s the proof:

http://piqscore.com/ohio/

Obama won Ohio in 2008 by an unimpressive margin… due to his being the novelty/anti-Bush candidate. The only other time Democrats took Ohio is when Perot siphoned off 11% and 21% of the votes from Dole (1996) and Bush (1992). Small business is waiting for chance to dump Obama for a pro-business candidate.

PREDICTION: Romney takes Ohio by 7%.

VastRightWingConspirator on July 30, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Silly. The markets are responding to corporate earnings, signs that the Spring slowdown may be easing, possible Fed action (QE3), and stabilization in Europe (we’ll see). Trying to spin the recent market rally into a plus for either candidate is ridiculous.

TouchdownBuddha on July 30, 2012 at 9:29 PM

and yes…I smarter than both you and Nate Silver

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:26 PM

I smarter?

Might wanna rethink that position :D

Lanceman on July 30, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Would sane person fork over $40,000 for this?

Obama confident he’d win if election were today

By JENNIFER EPSTEIN |
7/30/12 8:22 PM EDT

NEW YORK — With 99 days until Election Day, President Obama is confident he’s in a winning position.

“If the election were held today, I think it would be close, but I think we’d win,” he said at a Monday night fundraiser here. ” And we now have 99 days left. If I can say that every day for the next 99 days, then we’ll be able to embark on the next phase of this journey.”

Obama acknowledged that there are plenty of “negative” and “contrast” ads coming from his campaign, but “when people start saying how terrible it is, I just have to remind them — take a look at what Jefferson and Adams had to say. Democracy’s always been pretty rough and pretty messy.”

“I’m confident that we are running a good campaign” and will continue to do so, but Democrats are “being outspent substantially,” he told 60 donors, who gave $40,000 each. Though Obama said he doesn’t anticipate being able to match them dollar-for-dollar, “we’re going to have to continue to compete … make sure that we can get our message out effectively.”

The president told Abner Mikva’s joke that having a friend in politics is like having a kid in college.

“Every so often you have to write this check,” Obama said to laughs. “Fortunately, I’m about to graduate, so this is it, guys.”

Someone in the crowd interjected – “You’re not going to call us for the library?”

No, Obama said, “somebody else will make that call.”
——————————–

Cody1991 on July 30, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Lanceman on July 30, 2012 at 9:32 PM

lolz

cell phones ;)

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:35 PM

If Ronmey wins, a lot of that sidelines money goes into circulation and things take off, inflation is going to be a major issue that the donks will be on like white on rice. I hope like hell Bernake doesn’t decide to print more money in Q3.

a capella on July 30, 2012 at 9:40 PM

They do not want Mitt they do want Conservative Republicans.

Steveangell

So, because a Conservative isn’t available, they’re going to vote for the least Conservative, full blown Marxist instead? Makes sense.

Not.

xblade on July 30, 2012 at 9:48 PM

“Maybe they’re keyed into the fact that O’s hit Romney with the kitchen sink on Bain and basically nothing’s happened to Mitt’s numbers?”

Ding, ding, ding. Obama will not be able to pull the same crap in the debates. If Romney calls him a liar, people will check the fact check and those will back Romney and they’ll see Obama for the fraud he is.

Zaggs on July 30, 2012 at 9:48 PM

Intrade isn’t buying it. But those are mostly overseas traders. Intrade has been wrong a lot lately.

crosspatch on July 30, 2012 at 9:49 PM

there’s no such thing as a conservative Republican anymore

just face it

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:49 PM

Intrade was way wrong about Obamacare

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Wall Street is full of very stupid people… If these morons are going to rally the markets thinking that Romney would win then they would be helping Obama not Romney because Obama would take credit for the rally…
Anyway, it has been proven in the last 10 years that the markets are becoming more and more detached from the actual economy, they have a life of their own that is not related to GDP or the unemployment the two most important metrics in the economy…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Would sane person fork over $40,000 for this?

Obama confident he’d win if election were today

Translation:

“If the election were held today, I would win. I’m not so sure about November.”

Considering the Democratic oversample in some of these polls, I’m not sure he would win today.

crosspatch on July 30, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Let me simplify this elections for you by simple numbers based on analysis that I did for the battleground states:

If in 2012 Obama loses 15% of the white voters who voted for him in 2008 in the battleground states then he is going to lose the elections. It is that simple.

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 9:58 PM

“Complete blowout as I recall, from Kasich and Portman to the wipeout in the statehouse. Of course that all has changed now that Obeyme’s policies are working out so well.”

Ohio hasn’t been the same since the unions clobbered Kasich on the ballot issue.

This tonedeafness among Romney partisans is too similar to the disbelief in 08 that Obama was going to win. Either Obama is just that well liked, or romney is just that hated, but nothing seems to knock Obama off his stride even with a terrible economy.

gumbyandpokey on July 30, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Yeah, some on Wall Street are hoping for a Romney victory. Others have done quite well under Obamao and will hate to have to re-fit their lobbying departments.

minnesoter on July 30, 2012 at 9:59 PM

VastRightWingConspirator on July 30, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Nice try.

They do not purport to do anything other than combine all previous elections for a liberal/conservative score.

As was said Republicans did well in 10. But you have to be a moron to ignore who they voted for Scott Walker won but Mitt Romney would have lost by 9 or more points. Romney can be as Liberal Moderate and Progressive as he wants. But he can not expect conservatives to vote for him. That may work in Mass but not most of the rest of the Country and no one expects him to take his home state. Bet almost no one has won the general while losing their home state.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:00 PM

who didn’t think Obama was gonna win in 08?

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Intrade was way wrong about Obamacare

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Kind of makes you wonder if John Roberts had a play on that bet.

Bitter Clinger on July 30, 2012 at 10:02 PM

No way Romney loses Ohio. Here’s the proof:

http://piqscore.com/ohio/

Obama won Ohio in 2008 by an unimpressive margin… due to his being the novelty/anti-Bush candidate. The only other time Democrats took Ohio is when Perot siphoned off 11% and 21% of the votes from Dole (1996) and Bush (1992). Small business is waiting for chance to dump Obama for a pro-business candidate.

PREDICTION: Romney takes Ohio by 7%.

VastRightWingConspirator on July 30, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Based on the prediction program that I made recently if Obama loses 19% of the whites voters who voted for him in 2008 in Ohio then he would lose Ohio by 7 points. If he loses 15% of the whites voters who voted for him in 2008 then he would lose Ohio by 4 points.

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Intrade was way wrong about Obamacare

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Your point.

That was the worse decision in 100 years.

The mandate is a tax for this part of the law but not for that part.

Really what a moron Roberts is. He has destroyed any confidence in the SCOTUS. From now on whoever is President gets his way if he bullies them. What a sick wimp. The founders would bury him alive were they alive.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Translation:

“If the election were held today, I would win. I’m not so sure about November.”

Considering the Democratic oversample in some of these polls, I’m not sure he would win today.

crosspatch on July 30, 2012 at 9:55 PM

My question is, what do political donors expect to get this time around? Seems to me the big prizes have been handed out during his first term. The electorate isn’t amenable to more Solyndras. The ambassadorships are gone. The unions are po’d. The economy is dragging.

Other than assuaging a ‘feel good’ instinct, what’s the point? For those who are more politically astute I’m all ears, but why toss more money into the abyss for no return? And large donors always want some sort of return beyond vague, gassy speeches, don’t they?

Cody1991 on July 30, 2012 at 10:08 PM

what do political donors expect to get this time around? Seems to me the big prizes have been handed out during his first term.

Cody1991 on July 30, 2012 at 10:08 PM

If you look at the donors list this time compared to the list last time, you will see that many of the largest donors have switched from Obama to Romney. Obama’s donors are the usual ideological lefties from academia and tech. Big finance and big corporate have switched to Romney.

crosspatch on July 30, 2012 at 10:12 PM

My word.

Mitt Romney has turned Hot Air into an alternate reality.

Look for now Romney is seriously behind. Get over it. If you ignore this fact you only hurt Romney.

You purport to support him. Well selling fantasies while it may make you feel good will not help Mitt.

Shoot why am I bothering. I want Mitt to lose. I would not trust him within 100 miles of the Presidency.

Obama will get nothing passed with neither house. He will have no power come 2013 to force real change. Furthermore the investigations will really take off. He will not make it to 2016. He will either be impeached or he will resign.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:14 PM

My theory is that the only reason Obama is looking so favorable in the polls is because his campaign has spent $15 million on polling and they’re just leaking the good polls. And the Obama loving main street media is sucking it up like the suckers they are. I can believe that Wall St. thinks Romney will win.

COgirl on July 30, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Well there’s still the Redskins.

aunursa on July 30, 2012 at 10:22 PM

My word.

Mitt Romney has turned Hot Air into an alternate reality.

Look for now Romney is seriously behind. Get over it. If you ignore this fact you only hurt Romney.

You purport to support him. Well selling fantasies while it may make you feel good will not help Mitt.

Shoot why am I bothering. I want Mitt to lose. I would not trust him within 100 miles of the Presidency.

Obama will get nothing passed with neither house. He will have no power come 2013 to force real change. Furthermore the investigations will really take off. He will not make it to 2016. He will either be impeached or he will resign.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:14 PM

You are an idiot with a little brain… First of all Romney is not “seriously” behind not by any measure…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:22 PM

gumbyandpokey is obviously the foremost authority in election science

Slade73 on July 30, 2012 at 9:09 PM

So you smarter than Nate Silver 538 fame?

67% chance Obama wins Ohio.

Really the link is on the top of the page did you not bother before jumping the gun because of your Mitt Blinders?

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Oh, an nate silver got his crystal l ball out and somehow factored in the vote turnout which btw no other pollster factors in because it’s basically impossible at this point in the election process…so what tells you or nat silver that 1) from now to. Elections day nothing will change in Ohio voters ‘s preferences (how’ bout the udecied in Ohio, does Nat SIlver knows who they are going to break for :) and 2) what does he know about Ohio vote turn out that no other pollster knows. At this point in time…..

jimver on July 30, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Obama’s donors are the usual ideological lefties from academia and tech. Big finance and big corporate have switched to Romney.

crosspatch on July 30, 2012 at 10:12 PM

That’s what I’m seeing at least from what is reported.

Well, I’m going to enjoy watching him beg.

Schadenfreudelicious!!!

Cody1991 on July 30, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Shoot why am I bothering. I want Mitt to lose. I would not trust him within 100 miles of the Presidency.

Obama will get nothing passed with neither house. He will have no power come 2013 to force real change. Furthermore the investigations will really take off. He will not make it to 2016. He will either be impeached or he will resign.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:14 PM

You know, you’re supposed to get those meds refilled after the bottles are empty.

Obama not getting anything passed is a nice sentiment under normal circumstances. But Obama has already shown wanton disregard for the Constitution. His re-election will be the start of the “Executive-Orders-to-get-things-done-cause-people-want-me-to-get-things-done” era.

Bitter Clinger on July 30, 2012 at 10:29 PM

You are an idiot with a little brain… First of all Romney is not “seriously” behind not by any measure…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Saul Alinsky. You sure Mitt is not a communist?

I mean his supporters sure love good old Saul.

Excuses me 7% behind in a State he must win is seriously behind. Most elections are within 2%. 7% is 250% worse.

Dreaming about white people not voting for Obama really. Give me a break. Sure they prefer Mitt Romney who did all the same things they hate about Obama in Mass. Shoot a liberal from Mass is a fairy tale. Not even an actual Democrat liberal from Mass could win.

In 35 States Mitt would be a Democrat if he had exactly the same positions as a Republican in Mass. Even a Conservative one. But Mitt was a liberal one if one at all.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Oh, an nate silver got his crystal l ball out and somehow factored in the vote turnout which btw no other pollster factors in because it’s basically impossible at this point in the election process…so what tells you or nat silver that 1) from now to. Elections day nothing will change in Ohio voters ‘s preferences (how’ bout the udecied in Ohio, does Nat SIlver knows who they are going to break for :) and 2) what does he know about Ohio vote turn out that no other pollster knows. At this point in time…..

jimver on July 30, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Nate Silver is an overrated fool and he is a liberal so let us not forget this. He predicted the 2010 elections by 20 seats less than what the Republicans actually got…
Based on a prediction model I made if Obama loses 15% of the WHITE voters who voted for him in 2008 in Ohio he would lose Ohio. It would be Romney 51%, Obama 47%, others 2%…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Saul Alinsky. You sure Mitt is not a communist?

I mean his supporters sure love good old Saul.

Excuses me 7% behind in a State he must win is seriously behind. Most elections are within 2%. 7% is 250% worse.

Dreaming about white people not voting for Obama really. Give me a break. Sure they prefer Mitt Romney who did all the same things they hate about Obama in Mass. Shoot a liberal from Mass is a fairy tale. Not even an actual Democrat liberal from Mass could win.

In 35 States Mitt would be a Democrat if he had exactly the same positions as a Republican in Mass. Even a Conservative one. But Mitt was a liberal one if one at all.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:30 PM

You are still an idiot with a little brain. Nate Silver is an overrated fool and he is a liberal so let us not forget this. He predicted the 2010 elections by 20 seats less than what the Republicans actually got…
Based on a prediction model I made if Obama loses 15% of the WHITE voters who voted for him in 2008 in Ohio he would lose Ohio. It would be Romney 51%, Obama 47%, others 2%…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I do not think AP is a good judge of who stands where on this election. I saw a video on you tube tonight (the bro’s gotta go). All I can say is when Obama loses some of the black vote, he is done. The B the H and the O gotta go.

Zelsdorf Ragshaft on July 30, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Also moron Steveangell, if you are saying that Romney is 7% behind Obama in Ohio then this indicates how low is your IQ. Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 5 points and there is no way under the sun that Obama is better now in Ohio than in 2008…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Obama not getting anything passed is a nice sentiment under normal circumstances. But Obama has already shown wanton disregard for the Constitution. His re-election will be the start of the “Executive-Orders-to-get-things-done-cause-people-want-me-to-get-things-done” era.

Bitter Clinger on July 30, 2012 at 10:29 PM

More Saul Alinsky.

The investigations are already paying off. EO’s are simple to undo. Next President simply signs a letter all of them are gone.

But Obama will be impeached. There is far to much corruption and it is coming to light. Americans have had it. By 2014 if Obama even tries what you say the Republicans will have the numbers. The Democrats will know they either impeach or lose their office. Enough of them that are left at least.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Also moron Steveangell, if you are saying that Romney is 7% behind Obama in Ohio then this indicates how low is your IQ. Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 5 points and there is no way under the sun that Obama is better now in Ohio than in 2008…

mnjg on July 30, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Sorry mixed up percentages up with well different percentages.

Mitt is 7% behind in the chance of taking Ohio different than what I indicated. Regardless it is a lot to make up in a State that will not be friendly to Mitt. The Republicans there are Conservative and so far Mitt is just giving the bird to Conservatives.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Rasmussen has Obama ahead in Ohio by 47% to 45% after 3 months of Obama slinging mud. Romney hasn’t even started campaigning yet. As the economy continues to languish, undecideds will swing to Romney. Romney wins by 5 points. Unless Obama finds something to change the dynamic. So far he hasn’t, not for the lack of trying.

breffnian on July 30, 2012 at 10:43 PM

But Obama will be impeached. There is far to much corruption and it is coming to light. Americans have had it. By 2014 if Obama even tries what you say the Republicans will have the numbers. The Democrats will know they either impeach or lose their office. Enough of them that are left at least.

Steveangell on July 30, 2012 at 10:35 PM

If “Americans have had it”, why on earth would they re-elect Obama just to root for an impeachment? Just so you can dream of Mitt losing and the good guy still wins out in the end? That’s a stretch for a Disney movie.

Bitter Clinger on July 30, 2012 at 10:49 PM

There would be a huge initial downward correction in the stock market if Romney wins. Just like for Reagan. The primary reason that the market goes up is predicted future inflation, and the price of the companies should inflate just like their products.

If Obama wins again, the stock market will go through the roof. Like Zimbabwe’s stock market has performed relative to their own currency.

Buddahpundit on July 30, 2012 at 10:53 PM

I’m telling you, the polls are rigged in favor of Obama. The truth will be revealed in 99 days.

COgirl on July 30, 2012 at 11:18 PM

“The recovering market would be a sign that the perceived anti-Wall Street policies of the current administration will soon come to an end, as the incumbent would be replaced

I said at least a year ago the the markets and the economy generally would show signs of growth as soon as investors decided that the odds favored an Obama defeat. Not that it requires much imagination to come to that conclusion.

novaculus on July 30, 2012 at 11:23 PM

Offhand, I can’t think of one statistical model or betting market that has Mitt winning.

That’s what you get for thinking. You’re undoubtedly blinded by the obvious (or perhaps the Mitt hate that sustained you through the GOP primaries).

Here’s a single number that seals the deal … 1.5%. You take it from there, champ.

MJBrutus on July 30, 2012 at 11:52 PM

There would be a huge initial downward correction in the stock market if Romney wins.

Buddahpundit on July 30, 2012 at 10:53 PM

What are you smoking? We’re going to see the mother of all relief rallies as it becomes clear that Mitt will be the next POTUS.

MJBrutus on July 30, 2012 at 11:54 PM

Silly. The markets are responding to corporate earnings, signs that the Spring slowdown may be easing, possible Fed action (QE3), and stabilization in Europe (we’ll see). Trying to spin the recent market rally into a plus for either candidate is ridiculous.
TouchdownBuddha on July 30, 2012 at 9:29 PM

A conservative who makes perfect sense. You sound like a trader. What do you think of that Priceline rally on Friday. I made a boatload on that trade. :)

Uppereastside on July 31, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Buddahpundit are you insane? If the market is so hot for Obama, why not just go “through the roof” now and help reelect him? Hmmmmmm?

AnnaS on July 31, 2012 at 12:10 AM

Wallstreet wants those interest rates to stay very low for their sake.

V-rod on July 31, 2012 at 12:48 AM

If “Americans have had it”, why on earth would they re-elect Obama just to root for an impeachment? Just so you can dream of Mitt losing and the good guy still wins out in the end? That’s a stretch for a Disney movie.

Bitter Clinger on July 30, 2012 at 10:49 PM

They wouldn’t.

They just have no viable alternative.

Romney is the father of all Americans hate about Obama. They hate Obama/Romney Care but Mitt did it first in Mass. They hate Gay Marriage but Mitt did it first in Mass. On and on almost all they hate about Obama Mitt did in Mass. Catholics well Mitt did that in Mass.

Americans are not stuck on stupid. They understand that Romney would have support in the House and Senate. They know Obama is dead he has no power really. Thus better to keep him powerless than to give Romney power.

Steveangell on July 31, 2012 at 1:23 AM

I don’t buy it. Sure, maybe the economy will rebound in the next few months due to optimism about Romney, but given That One’s penchant for claiming credit for everything, it’ll be all too easy to spin this into “hey guys, look at how great I’m doing–I fixed the economy!”

Mr. Prodigy on July 31, 2012 at 1:50 AM

wall street is tainted with corruption. I would prefer mitt did not get any money from big banks.

nathor on July 31, 2012 at 7:39 AM

They’re all Racists…Racists, I tell you!!! Just wanted to prepare you all for the NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and MSNBC tag lines of the day. You’re Welcome.

Tbone McGraw on July 31, 2012 at 7:54 AM

A conservative who makes perfect sense. You sound like a trader. What do you think of that Priceline rally on Friday. I made a boatload on that trade. :)

Uppereastside on July 31, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Now do what you preach liberal scum and give 70% of your earnings to the government because it is “only fair” to do so… There is no reason for you have so much money, there are a lot of hard working people who deserve your money and you are not smarter than them… or so says you welfare queens agitator Obama… Of course as the typical liberal hypocrite you will find every way under the sun to keep as much of your money as you can… But you want to take other people money and give it to the parasites so they can vote liberals in power….

mnjg on July 31, 2012 at 9:19 AM

No, really, Romney is actually winning as of today.

The polls (and 538) are assuming (on average) D+6 turnout. 2008 saw D+7 turnout with +26 Dem enthusiasm, 2010 was even, as was 2004 with D+17 enthusiasm.

Given the above… what in God’s name does R+12 enthusiasm portend??

The answer is assuredly not D+6, one point off 2008′s highwater mark. I mean, come on.

And, remember, these are RV polls (Nate at 538 only adjusts by .4 for this, which is probably not enough).

Because his passion index is double-digits underwater (see Ras) Obama probably needs D+3 to win, and today turnout is looking to be somewhere between D+1 and R+4. Unless things change (and they could), Obama’s very likely to lose.

http://classicalvalues.com/2012/07/pollaxed/

(See also the WS quant’s blog post in the update; he is not the only one on WS doing this analysis!)

TallDave on July 31, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Do remember that Wall Street is a money pump that works both ways. If the Wall Street money men figure the market is sure to go down they can make money with many effective strategies. They made money with Obama. Now they figure that pump is bottomed out and want it to pump the other way. For that they figure Mitt Romney is the way to go. It is a coincidence that this will vastly benefit the US as a whole. That is not the Wall Street goal, though. It is best to remember that and make extreme efforts to keep them out of the drivers’ seats of our nation.

{^_^}

herself on July 31, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Either the top-dogs on Wall Street have a serious case of Dilbertitis, or they’ve got something dirty in the works. I suspect a mixture of both.

MelonCollie on July 31, 2012 at 11:13 PM