NJ: Team Obama hitting the panic button over shrinking gender gap

posted at 1:21 pm on July 27, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Why, wonders Beth Reinhard of National Journal, is Team Obama airing a new television ad with claims already rated by Politifact as “pants on fire” false?  The ad in question, “Troubled,” claims Romney wants to make all abortions illegal, even in cases of rape an incest:

The ad from the Obama campaign said Romney “backed a bill that outlaws all abortions, even in cases of rape and incest.”

The Obama campaign provides virtually nothing to back that up, however. It has no evidence that Romney explicitly opposed the exception for rape and incest. While he supported the “human life amendment,” there are many versions and the most recent ones allow abortion after rape or incest. And it’s worth noting that in 2011, Romney declared that has said he supports those exceptions.

In its effort to appeal to women, the Obama campaign has twisted Romney’s position to a ridiculous degree. We rate the claim Pants on Fire.

So why run yet another ad with the same ridiculous claims?  Reinhard says the key is in swing-state polling — which shows Barack Obama’s big lead among women shrinking substantially:

A look at the dwindling gender gap in just one of the states where the ad is running gives it away. In Virginia — ground zero for the so-called “war on women” because of anti-abortion initiatives in the state capitol — Obama was running ahead of Romney in Quinnipiac University polls in March and June, largely because of monster leads among women. The gender gap was 13 points in March and 16 points in June.

Then came July’s survey, which found the candidates deadlocked at 44 percent each. The gender gap had shrunk to only 5 points.

In the latest week-long survey results (July 16-22) from Rasmussen’s daily presidential tracking poll, which sampled 3500 likely voters, the gender gap has fallen to five points (48/43) — but it’s only down to two points in today’s three-day rolling average (46/44).  Meanwhile, Romney has a 13-point lead among men, 54/41, in today’s result, and a nine-point edge from the previous weeklong results, 50/41.  When leaners are included in the three-day rolling average, Romney has a twelve-point lead among men, 55/43 — and a tie among women with Obama at 47/47.  Among those women “certain” of their vote, Obama only has a one-point edge, 38/37.  Among men certain of their vote, Romney leads by 14, 47/33.

Romney also leads the tracking poll overall by five points, 49/44 — and that was before today’s GDP report.

It seems that Team Obama has good reason to hit the panic button, and not just in Virginia.  They need to scare women back onto the Democratic reservation, and setting their own pants on fire looks like their only option, now that “Julia” has been banished to the Island of Misfit Political Mascots.

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This is very interesting.

About two or three weeks ago the RCP electoral count had Romney and Obama tied at 266 apiece on recent likely voters sampling. Obama has currently moved about 30 votes up (mid 290s)after a barrage of advertising, but many of the pollsters have gotten there with heavy D sampling. It will be interesting to see how the state polling – which is done much less frequently – begins to move in response to two major Obama gaffes – you didn’t build that and my plan worked. Obviously, Obama is terrified if his internals are forcing his hand to respond.

Overall, Romney seems clearly ahead nationallyin the popular vote (for what that is worth) – as we are seeing in Rasmussen’s tracking poll today as well as ties and single digit Obama leads in D+6 and D+12 poll sampling.

I still see this race as a reversal of 2008 results (perhaps a little closer) with Romney winning. But it is getting pretty weird out there.

Zomcon JEM on July 27, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Maybe it also has to do with Obama and drones smacking on Mitt’s wife for using dressage riding as therapy for her MS. I know my wife was FURIOUS over it… and she normally doesn’t care for politics. And I mean that… she was actually ANGRY over it!

dominigan on July 27, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Schad, here ya go:

Dowderisation & Desperation (Over “You Didn’t Build That!)


M2RB: Steppenwolf

Resist We Much on July 27, 2012 at 5:57 PM

And yet, the Dems continue to claim that Romney has been lying and distorting O’s own words in his “You didn’t build that” speech. But it’s okay somehow for Team Obama to make-up positions or words for Romney that he hasn’t even spoken. There’s simply not enough duct tape left to keep our heads from exploding over the next three months.

HoosierStateofMind on July 27, 2012 at 9:26 PM

It will be a wave election… it won’t be close enough for the DIMocrats to steal…

But they will try… they will try…

Khun Joe on July 27, 2012 at 9:53 PM

More Abortion Bell!

ParisParamus on July 28, 2012 at 11:11 AM