Poll: Hispanics may be tilting toward Obama, but will they show up to vote?

posted at 4:01 pm on July 25, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

It seems that last month‘s announcement of President Obama’s absolutely not political “policy shift” on his Homeland Security Department’s “discretionary enforcement” had an impact that sent some ripples through the Hispanic community. According to a new WSJ/NBC/Telemundo poll, Mr. Obama has since widened his lead over Mitt Romney in terms of Hispanic support:

A new national poll of Hispanic registered voters, conducted by The Wall Street Journal, NBC News and the Spanish-language broadcaster Telemundo, finds Mr. Obama leading his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, 67%-23%, a gap four percentage points wider than in last month’s poll. …

But the poll also laid bare the challenges Mr. Obama and his campaign face in translating the support into actual votes.

Compared to 2008, enthusiasm about the November election is now much lower among Hispanics than among any other major voting bloc.

Just 55% of Hispanic voters told the pollsters they had high-intensity interest in the upcoming elections, down from 64% in July 2008. At the same time, the number of Hispanic voters who said they were more enthusiastic about this election than the last one dropped by seven percentage points in just a month.

Unfortunately for President Obama, it looks like members of the Hispanic voting bloc may not be the only ones they’ll have difficulty getting fired up enough to show up en masse on election day and cast their ballot. While the conservative base is feeling pretty darn fed up with President Obama’s many failures, Democrats don’t seem able to muster up an equivalent level of enthusiasm about them, according to Gallup:

Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.

While concern with polls of likely and registered voters and even popular votes of course runs high, ensuring that likely voters will be actual voters is obviously elementary. Voter enthusiasm does tend to surge as elections get closer, but if this trend continues, I’d chalk it up to pretty good news for Mitt Romney. Barack Obama’s got a record, and the energized fanaticism of Hopenchange is no more.


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Clearly, they are racist.

RedNewEnglander on July 25, 2012 at 4:03 PM

With the ballots written in Spanish, and La Raza having the New Black Panther Party precedent of wielding pipes at the polling places, the Hispanic [Hispanolia only, of course] vote will turn out.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 25, 2012 at 4:07 PM

..no, no se puedan.

The War Planner on July 25, 2012 at 4:08 PM

[Hispaniola]

OhEssYouCowboys on July 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Obama hates Latinos, dead or alive. Just look at F&F and their unemployment numbers.

Wake up fools. He is bamboozeling you, just for votes.

He didn’t do squat for you, with Pelosi/Reid in charge.

Just as the oaf focused on Obama’care’ instead of jobs, and forced you out of construction and sent you into oblivion, by his Utopian drem.

Look around and think, fools. He is only using you, in modern day plantations, just like he does the blacks.

Schadenfreude on July 25, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Another NBC poll!

artist on July 25, 2012 at 4:10 PM

No se puede!

Schadenfreude on July 25, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Not sure they’ll “show up”. Undocumented democrats prefer to vote absentee.

Buttercup on July 25, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Forget Hispanics
We need to stem illegal immigration, or we’re going to have a socialist electorate very soon. And a lot of independents are hopping mad about illegal immigration, but unless we make a big squawk about immgration (get there attention), they could very well just vote for Obama.
And, there’s no way our candidate can just go through an election and offend no one, especially on the left. “Show some ideology” Krauthammer said, or people will find Romney to be simply untrustworthy. And come out strong against gun control. Show some ideology to build trust with the voters on the left and right. And don’t pick Rubio as a bald pander to Hispanics. We’d be the laughing stock, a joke, and Hispanics still wouldn’t budge in their votes.

anotherJoe on July 25, 2012 at 4:11 PM

The crosstabs for this poll are amazing. They are 60D/18R/11I now i’m not sure what hispanic party affiliation actually is but I highly doubt it is +42D

MFn G I M P on July 25, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Hispanics may be tilting toward Obama

According to Cervantes, they are tilting at windmills.

Really do not believe American citizen Hispanics want to be kept on the plantación.

Non-American citizen Hispanics who will be voting in November most likely favor another Obama term.

coldwarrior on July 25, 2012 at 4:15 PM

It’s time for Team Romney to make an ad in spanish explaining how Obama’s administration provided the guns that killed 300+ innocent Mexican citizens.

Flora Duh on July 25, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Polling place worker: Do you have any ID?

Hispanic Voter To Be With Origin From Hispaniola: Que?

Polling Place Worker: Good enough.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 25, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Non-American citizen Hispanics who will be voting in November most likely favor another Obama term.

coldwarrior on July 25, 2012 at 4:15 PM

He has made them feel right at home by turning the US into TJ.

Kataklysmic on July 25, 2012 at 4:18 PM

+1 Flora
Indeed

cmsinaz on July 25, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Barack Obama’s got a record, and the energized fanaticism of Hopenchange is no more.

now there is merely the butthurt and hangover……..

ted c on July 25, 2012 at 4:19 PM

The crosstabs for this poll are amazing. They are 60D/18R/11I now i’m not sure what hispanic party affiliation actually is but I highly doubt it is +42D

MFn G I M P on July 25, 2012 at 4:12 PM

67% voted for Obama in 2008.

sharrukin on July 25, 2012 at 4:19 PM

The crosstabs for this poll are amazing. They are 60D/18R/11I now i’m not sure what hispanic party affiliation actually is but I highly doubt it is +42D

MFn G I M P on July 25, 2012 at 4:12 PM

The bettor question would be, what is the percentage of Hispanic likely voters who are Catholic?

SWalker on July 25, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Thanks for your concern, but don’t you worry your little heart.

We’ll all be there to send Mitt packin’.

inthemiddle on July 25, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Poll: Hispanics may be tilting toward Obama, but will they show up to vote?

…who cares?…their ballots will somehow show up!

KOOLAID2 on July 25, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Just my old Texas take but I believe time would be better spent working out who is voting Red then who might vote blue.

Limerick on July 25, 2012 at 4:23 PM

I pass through an area that is probably about 90% African/American. In 2008 (months before the election), cars, homes, banners, posters, everywhere Obama, Obama, Obama, it was simply overwhelming the support and enthusiasm. Just, in the past hour, drove through, no signs anywhere, I even drove down streets I normally don’t, no signs, no banners, no bumper stickers…nothing, it’s as if the election isn’t for another couple of years.
“They” know, they sense it, it’s over, the four years is all Obama gets, and in that four years, there was no “hope or change”, except for hopelessness and the wrong kind of change.

14% unemployment in that area, up by 6%…the supporters, don’t care.

right2bright on July 25, 2012 at 4:23 PM

What about the Lithuanian-American vote?

Akzed on July 25, 2012 at 4:24 PM

The crosstabs for this poll are amazing. They are 60D/18R/11I now i’m not sure what hispanic party affiliation actually is but I highly doubt it is +42D

MFn G I M P on July 25, 2012 at 4:12 PM

That caught my attention as well.

According to Pew, 31% of Hispanic Voters voted R in 2008, while 67% voted D. So they oversampled Dems by at least 6 points.

The other thing I noticed was the margin of error for that poll. Almost 6%, or double the usual MOE.

Del Dolemonte on July 25, 2012 at 4:26 PM

For my edification, and for my future use, regarding such votes, what are the Spanish words for “wield” and “pipe”?

Thanking you in advance.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 25, 2012 at 4:26 PM

MFn G I M P on July 25, 2012 at 4:12 PM

67% voted for Obama in 2008.

sharrukin on July 25, 2012 at 4:19 PM

See my 4:26 post.

I doubt O’bama will get 67% of the Hispanic vote this year, because when he got 67% he was an unknown quality.

He’s not now.

Del Dolemonte on July 25, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Thanks for your concern, but don’t you worry your little heart.

We’ll all be there to send Mitt packin’.

inthemiddle on July 25, 2012 at 4:21 PM

You bet, packin for the White House…sorry road kill, it’s over.
Obama did it with the “they didn’t build it”, now they are saying he hypnotized a whole country into following him, and the worst charge they have brought against Mitt…Why after leading a company for years, and leaving to save the Olympics, he actually stayed in contact and even oversaw his interests to make sure his exit was proper…the horror, he actually kept in touch with his friends and made sure his exit was right….HAHAHHAHA! That’s all they got, that Mitt is a person who follows through, and completes a task and maintains relationships.

right2bright on July 25, 2012 at 4:28 PM

When is the get out the vote on Univision’s Sabado Gigante!

[Don't mind me, I'm just having fun with a matter that is un-funny]

What is the Spanish term for “un-funny”?

Thanking you, in advance.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 25, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Again, I think in looking specifically for Hispanics, they go places like Spanish-language media, where the sample is heavily leavened with ineligible respondents. If you are illegal, are you going to tell some stranger at the supermercado who asks questions about the election, “Oh yeah, I’m totally illegal?” Same for someone calling the house based on some list they got from Telemundo.

Sekhmet on July 25, 2012 at 4:30 PM

We’ll all be there to send Mitt packin’.

inthemiddle on July 25, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Right, his van/s, for the move to throw out the filth in the WH.

Schadenfreude on July 25, 2012 at 4:31 PM

The MSM meme that is constantly pushed is : “Republicans better back Amnesty, because something like 50% of the population is illegal Hispanics that want citizenship!”

My question is, what percentage of illegal aliens show up to illegally vote in American elections? I know it’s out there, but it’s not even a rounding error. And what percentage of LEGAL Latino-Americans (that can actually vote) are really clamoring for Amnesty? How many US citizens of say Cuban decent really care about giving Amnesty to Hispanics from Mexico? It’s completely counter intuitive that pandering to illegal aliens is going to be some big vote-getter for the GOP.

The truth of the matter is, even if Republicans did a 180 and fully supported and and all Amnesty, it would probably net them very few additional votes in the Hispanic community above the 30-40% support they have currently. Working class whites, however, would jump ship in droves. The fringe position is that of open borders and amnesty.

BradTank on July 25, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Yeah, but the dead vote is fired up like never before.

jukin3 on July 25, 2012 at 4:37 PM

See my 4:26 post.

Del Dolemonte on July 25, 2012 at 4:28 PM

In 2000 it was 62% for Democrats.
In 2004 with ‘Amnesty’ Bush it was 53% for Kerry.
In 2008 it was 67% for Obama.

60D doesn’t seem that out of line.

sharrukin on July 25, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Yeah, but the dead vote is fired up like never before.

jukin3 on July 25, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Resurrection Tuesday!

portlandon on July 25, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Barack Obama is working hard to convince Americans that the most important issue to Hispanic voters is providing Amnesty to people who have shown complete disrespect for our laws and entered our country ILLEGALLY.

Is this really how Hispanic Americans who respected our laws and became citizens LEGALLY want to be viewed by their fellow Americans?

wren on July 25, 2012 at 4:43 PM

See my 4:26 post.

Del Dolemonte on July 25, 2012 at 4:28 PM

In 2000 it was 62% for Democrats.
In 2004 with ‘Amnesty’ Bush it was 53% for Kerry.
In 2008 it was 67% for Obama.

60D doesn’t seem that out of line.

sharrukin on July 25, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Funny thing is, the 67% that voted for Obama, is approximately the same percentage of Hispanics that are Catholic. So, yea 60D is gong to have been way out of line. I can pretty much guarantee you that Obama isn’t getting the Hispanic Catholic vote.

SWalker on July 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

If bho/team/soros/acorn/la raza flings enough cash to the hispanics, they WILL vote! As will all others to get their ‘free stash’ for a day?
L

letget on July 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM

packin’.

inthemiddle on July 25, 2012 at 4:21 PM

…whatever you’re packin’…will be coming out forcefully from all of your orfices I suspect…around the first week or so of November!

KOOLAID2 on July 25, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Non-American citizen Hispanics who will be voting in November most likely favor another Obama term.

coldwarrior on July 25, 2012 at 4:15 PM

He has made them feel right at home by turning the US into TJ.

Kataklysmic on July 25, 2012 at 4:18 PM

The attitude that will bury Republicans under a demographic tidal wave

plewis on July 25, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Hold up. All those histrionics about amnesty and it nets him FOUR points in the poll? Given the margin of error, maybe less?

TheLastBrainLeft on July 25, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Funny thing is, the 67% that voted for Obama, is approximately the same percentage of Hispanics that are Catholic. So, yea 60D is gong to have been way out of line. I can pretty much guarantee you that Obama isn’t getting the Hispanic Catholic vote.

SWalker on July 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Yeah, I recall hearing how John McCain was going to sweep the Hispanic vote in 2008 because he was such a fierce proponent for them. It never happened.

sharrukin on July 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM


And a lot of independents are hopping mad about illegal immigration, but unless we make a big squawk about immgration (get there attention), they could very well just vote for Obama.

Brace yourself for disappointment from the Romney camp:

Just yesterday, [Romney] began to hint at a new posture, leaving the door open to a moderate immigration proposal floated by Florida Senator Marco Rubio and breaking with Congressional Republican opposition to holding down the rates of student loans

casuist on July 25, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Funny thing is, the 67% that voted for Obama, is approximately the same percentage of Hispanics that are Catholic. So, yea 60D is gong to have been way out of line. I can pretty much guarantee you that Obama isn’t getting the Hispanic Catholic vote.

SWalker on July 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

He’s likely to get the same percentage of Catholic Hispanic voters as the percentage of Catholic women who use or have used birth control – 90% +. Apparently defectors in the war on religion

plewis on July 25, 2012 at 4:53 PM

SWalker on July 25, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Yeah, I recall hearing how John McCain was going to sweep the Hispanic vote in 2008 because he was such a fierce proponent for them. It never happened.

sharrukin on July 25, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I don’t think you are getting it. I did not say or imply that the Hispanic Catholics would vote for Romney. What I said was, that the majority of Hispanic Catholics sill not vote for Obama. There is a difference, and it is significant.

SWalker on July 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

You know O could get more votes if he told the truth. He should just come out and say, “as President of the United States, I have deported more illegals than any other President”. But as we all know the truth is not in him.

DDay on July 25, 2012 at 5:01 PM

How many of those ‘hispanics’ are running small family restaurants, landscaping businesses, painting companies, food trucks, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging walk-in clinics, hardscaping contractors, etc, etc?

They should all be jumping with rage at little Bammie’s ignorant “you din’t build that” rant.

slickwillie2001 on July 25, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Yeah, I can just see Blacks and Hispanics turning out in large numbers – “Let’s keep the man in office who has given us such high unemployment!”

GarandFan on July 25, 2012 at 5:07 PM

inthemiddle on July 25, 2012 at 4:21 PM

You do realize that what you wrote doesn’t make any sense, right?

Fallon on July 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

You do realize that what you wrote doesn’t make any sense, right?

Fallon on July 25, 2012 at 5:20 PM

None of his gibberish ever makes sense.

wargamer6 on July 25, 2012 at 5:29 PM

but will they show up to vote?

Why would they do that ?
Haven’t their votes already been cast and counted already ?

burrata on July 25, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Considering the democrats and Obama are working hard to make the USA into a third world hellhole like Juarez…

tom daschle concerned on July 25, 2012 at 5:59 PM

The answer is clear pick the conservative VP Rubio, It will :

Help you with conservatives

Help you with Floridians

Help you with Hispanics

Help you to win Swing States….

No other VP candidate gives you all of this. Plus he is intelligent, popular, charismatic and has a great story.

Natebo on July 25, 2012 at 6:05 PM

I didn’t think hispanics were stupid enough to buy obamacommie’s pandering. I mean really, all obamacommie wants to do is enslave them in exchange for their vote, which illegals don’t get anyway, so basically they’re selling their soul to the devil for nothing.

What, you didn’t think obamacommie was going to make you rich, did you?

Wolfmoon on July 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

For more free sh!t…..of course they will show up to vote!

oceansidecon on July 25, 2012 at 7:17 PM

What percent of the voters will be U.S. citizens? With Holder suing Florida and other states to stop voter ID’s and with Wisconsin allowing even Mickey Mouse and Adolph Hitler to be valid signatures, what’s to stop illegals from voting? I’m all for citizens of latino descent to vote but I am not sure they will be the only ones voting.

Christian Conservative on July 25, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Got this in an e-mail today:
Per the e-mail, these stats were published at various times by the LA Times

1. 40% of all workers in Los Angeles County ( Los Angeles County has 10.2 million people) are working for cash and not paying taxes. This is because they are predominantly illegal aliens working without a green card.

2. 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.

3. 75% of people on the most-wanted list in Los Angeles are illegal aliens.

4. Over 2/3 of all births in Los Angeles County are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal, whose births were paid for by taxpayers.

5. Nearly 35% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally.

6. Over 300,000 illegal aliens in Los Angeles County are living in garages.

7. The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los Angeles are most likely illegal aliens from south of the border.

8. Nearly 60% of all occupants of HUD properties are illegal.

9. 21 radio stations in Los Angeles are Spanish speaking.

10. In Los Angeles County 5.1 million people speak English, 3.9 million speak Spanish.
(There are 10.2 million people in Los Angeles County .)

(All 10 of the above statements are from the Los Angeles Times)

Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops, but 29% are on welfare.
Over 70% of the United States ‘ annual population growth (and over 90% of California , Florida , and New York ) results from immigration.
29% of inmates in federal prisons are illegal aliens.

We are a bunch of fools for letting this continue!

Christian Conservative on July 25, 2012 at 8:11 PM

HIstorically, according to easily-available Census data, Hispanics (particularly recent Mexican immigrants), are at the bottom of the ethnic/racial groups in terms of voting. One rung above them are “blacks” or “African-Americans” (including Kenyan half-bloods with no connection to the American experience). Both of these “interest groups” fall well behind “Whites” in voter turnout, year in and year out. It is what it is.

minnesoter on July 25, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Mitt and all GOP candidates must read this poll.

40% of Hispanics reject amnesty, 54% favor it.

SCREW the 54% and go after the 40% who respect our laws!

Any GOP candidate should be happy with 40% of a minority.

They should NEVER try to out-pander the Dems by rewarding foreign invaders with their ill-gotten goods (residency).

BTW – just heard today that in CA Supreme Court today there is a case about allowing ILLEGAL ALIENS to practice law (sic)!!

fred5678 on July 25, 2012 at 10:39 PM