Who’s up for a new NBC/WSJ poll based on a bad sample?

posted at 8:07 pm on July 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

Last month’s sample was questionable. This month’s sample is terrible:

The 2008 national exit poll sample, taken when Hopenchange fever was at its zenith, was 39D/32R/29I, or D+7. This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?

And yet we soldier on, my friends, reminding ourselves at every step that lame content is still content. One interesting takeaway: The attacks on Bain are driving Obama’s favorables down too, even with a very Democratic sample.

[T]he percentages signaling a less favorable impression about these candidates – especially at this point in the race – are greater than what the NBC/WSJ poll showed in the 2004 and 2008 presidential contests.

“This is not characteristic … for July,” says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “These are numbers you usually see in October.”…

The president’s favorable/unfavorable score in the poll is 49 percent to 43 percent, a slight change from June when it was 47 percent to 38 percent.

Moreover, 33 percent view Obama very positively, while 32 percent view him very negatively – which is his highest “very negative” number in poll.

By comparison, Romney’s overall favorable/unfavorable score is 35 percent to 40 percent, with 24 percent viewing him “very” negatively – also his highest mark here.

In fact, Romney would be the first GOP presumptive presidential nominee since 1996 to head into his nominating convention with a net-negative favorable/unfavorable score.

Only once before has Obama been as high as 30 percent when people were asked if they viewed him “very negatively.” This month he’s at 32 even though NBC’s respondents are heavily blue. He still leads overall, 49/43 among registered voters and 49/41 in battleground states, but Romney leads by two points among voters who are “high interest.” The Bain attacks haven’t done much to tilt people’s opinion about Bain either: In May, the favorable/unfavorable split for the firm was 9/19 whereas this month it’s 12/23. And yes, Obama’s earning himself a reputation as a negative campaigner:

Romney’s lead on the economy is increasing, too, as pessimism about a recovery deepens. The first column in the first table here is O, the second is Mitt:

So what explains Obama’s lead (besides the help he’s getting from the sample, natch)? Three things, I think. One: He still leads on likability, although some polls say he leads big and others say his lead is more modest. His favorable rating here is 49/43 compared to 35/40 for Romney, which is interesting insofar as his negatives are now actually higher than Mitt’s. See why he’s putting out those warm let’s-you-and-I-chat ads? Two: O leads on virtually every issue and leadership metric except the economy. Maybe that’s a simple function of voters not having sized Romney up yet, but it could be that by investing his entire campaign in building an economic edge, Mitt’s more or less abandoned the field on lesser issues. Three: Just because the Bain attacks aren’t doing much damage doesn’t mean all of O’s attacks are fizzling.

The fact that Obama’s now running positive ads makes me think he’s concluded that, for the moment, the attacks on Romney are hurting him more than they are Mitt. But I wonder if that’ll change if he can build up enough of a lead in likability. Obama won’t mind seeing his favorables turn negative, I assume, as long as Romney’s are turning at least as negative in the process. Something to look forward to in September and October!


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Comment pages: 1 2 3

That’s what I mean by “living and dying by polls”. Come on. Romney gains, then he loses. Gains then loses. But to this point he has remained pretty consistently behind Obama. Pointing that fact out doesn’t make one a “liar” and it doesn’t make on an “O-bot”. It makes one a realist who refuses to get out the GOP pom-poms.

Anyway, this I think is fairly close to what the electoral map will look like on the bitter morning of November 7.

ddrintn on July 25, 2012 at 8:34 AM

He’s behind but within the MOE. I’m not at all saying Romney’s going to win, I’m just not seeing support for Obama winning by 9 as you’ve predicted.

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Sean Trende must also be a liar, by the way:

ddrintn on July 25, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I hope not, I like him.

But here are the RCP and HuffPo/Pollster averages and the trend is rather clear.

Let me know what Sean says.

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 1:03 PM

The Wall Street Journal is making a huge mistake by partnering with NBC. The bulk of NBC programming is despicably Marxist and childishly populist. The Journal needs to get its act together and withdraw its implicit support for NBC by breaking the contract.

This poll is unbelievable.

TruthBeTold on July 25, 2012 at 1:12 PM

CARTER UP 30 on Reagan………

Michael Dukakis up 18 on George Bush in 1988 about this time during the campaign.

There is a TEANAMI coming (apparently skipping the Bay State, buh-bye Scott Brown, hello Senator Squaw with Forked tongue).

Hey, you peeps in Massachewits sure is some knucklehead.

PappyD61 on July 25, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Gallup has Democrat enthusiasm at -12 compared to GOP. It was +26 in 2008.

Gallup

Still not seeing D+12, ddrintn.

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Gallup has Democrat enthusiasm at -12 compared to GOP. It was +26 in 2008.

Gallup

Still not seeing D+12, ddrintn.

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 2:22 PM

But here are the RCP and HuffPo/Pollster averages and the trend is rather clear.

Let me know what Sean says.

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 1:03 PM

“Uh, ‘living and dying by polls’? Who, meeeeeee?” ROFL hilarious.

ddrintn on July 25, 2012 at 3:46 PM

I’m not at all saying Romney’s going to win, I’m just not seeing support for Obama winning by 9 as you’ve predicted.

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Oh, all that matters about is the bet. Romney loses by a point, he still loses.

ddrintn on July 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Oh, all that matters about is the bet. Romney loses by a point, he still loses.

ddrintn on July 25, 2012 at 3:47 PM

What bet?

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 3:48 PM

“Uh, ‘living and dying by polls’? Who, meeeeeee?” ROFL hilarious.

ddrintn on July 25, 2012 at 3:46 PM

How so?

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Todd admitted it was skewed D this morning

Chuck Schick on July 25, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3