Who’s up for a new NBC/WSJ poll based on a bad sample?

posted at 8:07 pm on July 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

Last month’s sample was questionable. This month’s sample is terrible:

The 2008 national exit poll sample, taken when Hopenchange fever was at its zenith, was 39D/32R/29I, or D+7. This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?

And yet we soldier on, my friends, reminding ourselves at every step that lame content is still content. One interesting takeaway: The attacks on Bain are driving Obama’s favorables down too, even with a very Democratic sample.

[T]he percentages signaling a less favorable impression about these candidates – especially at this point in the race – are greater than what the NBC/WSJ poll showed in the 2004 and 2008 presidential contests.

“This is not characteristic … for July,” says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “These are numbers you usually see in October.”…

The president’s favorable/unfavorable score in the poll is 49 percent to 43 percent, a slight change from June when it was 47 percent to 38 percent.

Moreover, 33 percent view Obama very positively, while 32 percent view him very negatively – which is his highest “very negative” number in poll.

By comparison, Romney’s overall favorable/unfavorable score is 35 percent to 40 percent, with 24 percent viewing him “very” negatively – also his highest mark here.

In fact, Romney would be the first GOP presumptive presidential nominee since 1996 to head into his nominating convention with a net-negative favorable/unfavorable score.

Only once before has Obama been as high as 30 percent when people were asked if they viewed him “very negatively.” This month he’s at 32 even though NBC’s respondents are heavily blue. He still leads overall, 49/43 among registered voters and 49/41 in battleground states, but Romney leads by two points among voters who are “high interest.” The Bain attacks haven’t done much to tilt people’s opinion about Bain either: In May, the favorable/unfavorable split for the firm was 9/19 whereas this month it’s 12/23. And yes, Obama’s earning himself a reputation as a negative campaigner:

Romney’s lead on the economy is increasing, too, as pessimism about a recovery deepens. The first column in the first table here is O, the second is Mitt:

So what explains Obama’s lead (besides the help he’s getting from the sample, natch)? Three things, I think. One: He still leads on likability, although some polls say he leads big and others say his lead is more modest. His favorable rating here is 49/43 compared to 35/40 for Romney, which is interesting insofar as his negatives are now actually higher than Mitt’s. See why he’s putting out those warm let’s-you-and-I-chat ads? Two: O leads on virtually every issue and leadership metric except the economy. Maybe that’s a simple function of voters not having sized Romney up yet, but it could be that by investing his entire campaign in building an economic edge, Mitt’s more or less abandoned the field on lesser issues. Three: Just because the Bain attacks aren’t doing much damage doesn’t mean all of O’s attacks are fizzling.

The fact that Obama’s now running positive ads makes me think he’s concluded that, for the moment, the attacks on Romney are hurting him more than they are Mitt. But I wonder if that’ll change if he can build up enough of a lead in likability. Obama won’t mind seeing his favorables turn negative, I assume, as long as Romney’s are turning at least as negative in the process. Something to look forward to in September and October!


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You mean NBC would put forward false information?

rob verdi on July 24, 2012 at 8:10 PM

This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?

Uppereastside
inthemiddle
libfreeordie (now back from exile)
ddrintn
Drywall

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 8:11 PM

WOW,nice turn-around AP,it was embargoed till 6:30PM…..:)

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

“This is not characteristic … for July,” says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart.

Who is Bill McInturff, and why would a Republican pollster participate in this nonsense?

Mark1971 on July 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Chuck Todd is in charge of this poll I believe. There’s your answer.

rubberneck on July 24, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 8:11 PM

*snort*

Now they can all unclench their tiny little fists for about 45 minutes….

BigWyo on July 24, 2012 at 8:13 PM

It’s only July! More schadenfreude to come.

Carter is indignant.

(Royalties to Schadenfreude)

the new aesthetic on July 24, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Why post this dreck?

Bmore on July 24, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I predicted this. If you watch RCP, every time a +6 or more obama poll drops out of the average, another pops up. Today Reuters/Ipsos +6 obama fell out. Last time it was Pew Research +7 obama.

Like clockwork.

crash72 on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Does anyone know how to look at the poll results, change the demographics to what they should be, and find an actual result?

Rational Thought on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

PPP/Daily Kos is out with a national poll today that has it tied 46-46

Mark1971 on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Who is Bill McInturff, and why would a Republican pollster participate in this nonsense?

Mark1971 on July 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

BWAHAHAH… Bill probably did his part of the work on this poll from a bar, while the democrat paid for the beer…

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Brian Ross- Hey, look what they’re doing at NBC!

artist on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

rob verdi on July 24, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Is WSJ in the tank for Obama, too?

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

The president’s favorable/unfavorable score in the poll is 49 percent to 43 percent, a slight change from June when it was 47 percent to 38 percent.

“slight”

/It Works!!! Run it! Deb, get over here and get suited up, you’re going in tomorrow morning with Mika!

Get ABC, NBC and CBS on the phone. Transmit this data tonight for immediate breaking newz in the morning. Obama’s on top, baby!!! Obama’s on top!!!

Axeldork

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

So we keep reading/hearing how poorly Obama is doing, and yet he always leads in the polls (outside of the one NYT/CBS poll, and Rasmussen occasionally). Sorry, but if Mitt was catching on and going to win, there would be some evidence other than conservative bloggers just basically hoping and praying.

gumbyandpokey on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Sampling Schmampling.

I think back to my college days – when my Political Science professor told us that any poll with a margin of error that exceeded plus or minus three-percent was poorly executed and should be dismissed. I can’t tell you the last time I saw a poll with a sampling rate that low.

Today’s pollsters are a joke.

Hill60 on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

The only likeability number that’s real hear is the Dem numbers. Repubs and Indis will not tell a pollster they don’t like ObamaTax. I see these numbers as a very big positive Romney, ala Wisconsin.

God Bless America!

paratisi on July 24, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Why post this dreck?

Bmore on July 24, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Why? Because Allahpundit’s car refuses to pay for the beer… (AP has to earn his beer money somehow)

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Every poll from the MSM/democrat party will be designed to suppress conservative turnout. If that takes a +25 D advantage than it will take a +25 D advantage.

Keep the faith, it will be Romney 356/182 electoral and 55/44 popular.

jukin3 on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

In nearly every poll I’ve seen, when you adjust for the same Republican turnout that occurred in 2004 or 2010, Romney win easily.

I really don’t think anyone can say with a straight face that Democrat turnout is going to be better in 2012 than it was in 2008, or that Republican turnout is going to be at some ridiculous 100 year low. Yet, that’s exactly what most of these MSM polls are saying, and I don’t think it’s by accident.

The MSM pollsters want to set the narrative that Obama is winning.

BradTank on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I predicted this. If you watch RCP, every time a +6 or more obama poll drops out of the average, another pops up. Today Reuters/Ipsos +6 obama fell out. Last time it was Pew Research +7 obama.

Like clockwork.

crash72 on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

I have noticed this too. I guess they can have their straws to grasp at, but it’s a fool’s errand. Anyone weak willed enough to be swayed by a bandwagon effect has been a lock to vote for King Barry from the word go.

Kataklysmic on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Of course this poll is garbage, but one underlying fact remains. Romney needs a likable VP pick to offset his personality or he could lose to The SMILE.
This lame notion that ‘boring is the new cool’ will never be true.
Rubio…likable.
Rice….likable.
Jindal, dorky, but pretty likable.

AmeriCuda on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

reminds me of 2008. we use to think those polls were bs too. guess what?

renalin on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I predicted this. If you watch RCP, every time a +6 or more obama poll drops out of the average, another pops up. Today Reuters/Ipsos +6 obama fell out. Last time it was Pew Research +7 obama.

Like clockwork.

crash72 on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

I was thinking the same exact thing. I’ve been noticing that too.

KCB on July 24, 2012 at 8:20 PM

What a waste of a post!

stukinIL4now on July 24, 2012 at 8:20 PM

When the media report on polls, they never look at internals and just sensational the headlines. The RCP composite average is skewed by some bad polls, and Barry is still touted as leading by 2 + points. It may be better to be hungry than to be complacent.

bayview on July 24, 2012 at 8:20 PM

If Obama wins the election, then all these conservative sites should shut down out of embarrassment for non-stop spinning. And if Obama loses, then these polling companies should shut down for embarrassing results.

BTW, why does the WSJ stay with NBC for polling if the results are so biased/skewed?

gumbyandpokey on July 24, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Maybe the Real Clear Politics poll average on the presidential race was getting too close to break even so NBC decided to throw out a big Obama lifeline to keep everyone thinking he is inevitable and they better make their contributions to the guy who is going to win. This happened in June too.

KW64 on July 24, 2012 at 8:21 PM

So we keep reading/hearing how poorly Obama is doing, and yet he always leads in the polls (outside of the one NYT/CBS poll, and Rasmussen occasionally). Sorry, but if Mitt was catching on and going to win, there would be some evidence other than conservative bloggers just basically hoping and praying.

gumbyandpokey on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

It’s D+12, you idiot. Stop whining.

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 8:22 PM

If Obama wins the election, then all these conservative sites should shut down out of embarrassment for non-stop spinning Americans ought to move and let the takers fend for themselves.

gumbyandpokey on July 24, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Forgive me. I reworded it.

beatcanvas on July 24, 2012 at 8:23 PM

One interesting takeaway: The attacks on Bain are driving Obama’s favorables down too, even with a very Democratic sample.

My theory, for what it is worth, is that Obama’s attack ads about Bain isn’t working for a very simple reason. Obama has failed when it comes to the economy and jobs. He airs these attack ads with the idea that people will be horrified that Romney was involved with “vulture capitalism.” The reality is that he reminds viewers that while Romney has a successful track record running businesses and organizations, Obama is a complete dud whose time as a community agitator did little to prepare him for the presidency.

Happy Nomad on July 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Citing D+11 is racist, doanchaknow?

locomotivebreath1901 on July 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I heard the results of this poll and the “analysis” on the way home tonight, on the WSJ “Daily Wrap” radio show. Michael Castner assured me and his listeners the survey was conducted by Dem and Repub pollsters, so it must be accurate. But no mention of the the polling sample.

Please.

BRunner on July 24, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Repubs and Indis will not tell a pollster they don’t like ObamaTax.

How right you are. I refuse to comment on the national political scene, when contacted by a telephone pollster. Look what they are doing to Frank VanderSloot.

esr1951 on July 24, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Art Clokey is God.

daveyandgoliath on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Del Dolemonte on July 24, 2012 at 8:25 PM

reminds me of 2008. we use to think those polls were bs too. guess what?

renalin on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Ok, I’ll ‘Guess What’..

You were a dic*@ead back in 2008.

Did I guess right??

BigWyo on July 24, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Read the other day where Odoodoo;s paid two million+ for polling. Guess he bought this one.

msupertas on July 24, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Kataklysmic and KCB,

I credit axelrod. Good use of cash to avoid the talking point of obama falling behind for the first time ever in the RCP average.

crash72 on July 24, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Many of these polls no longer answer the question “who would win if the election were held today?” They answer the question “what would the sample have to look like for Obama to tie or surpass Romney?”

Kataklysmic on July 24, 2012 at 8:27 PM

crash72 on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

I have to say, I do remember in the last tilted poll thread – ABC – someone did say the next one would be 12.

I thought that would be insane. I guess I’ve been checked.

budfox on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Why? Because Allahpundit’s car refuses to pay for the beer… (AP has to earn his beer money somehow)

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:18 PM

OT, sorry about the disagreement on Saturday’s thread.

That is all.

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

How long will it until we start seeing some D+20 polls?

midgeorgian on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

In nearly every poll I’ve seen, when you adjust for the same Republican turnout that occurred in 2004 or 2010, Romney win easily.

That would assume they’re making an accurate translation of the answerer’s opinion, and I wouldn’t even trust that. They use whatever data they want its like Climate Science.

It doesn’t matter. Romney will not win Ohio and probably not Florida either. I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

bernverdnardo1 on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

It’s D+12, you idiot. Stop whining.

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Shouldn’t that be whinnying?

massrighty on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

reminds me of 2008. we use to think those polls were bs too. guess what?

renalin on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

What about those Wisconsin polls? Oops.

msupertas on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

WOW,nice turn-around AP,it was embargoed till 6:30PM…..:)

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Obama 49% Romney 43%.

D+11

taternuggets on July 24, 2012 at 6:59 PM

That faux poll was dismantled within half an hour after the release.

bayview on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Meh. Another D+12 useless poll meant for nothing other than to shift the aggregators and make them increasingly worthless. The Reuters/Ipsos Obama by 6 outlier was about to fade out of the RCP average, so here’s an equally pointless piece of crap to replace it.

I’m just amazed that with D+12 they can’t get the guy to 50% in the vote or in the favorability rating. Neither could they avoid his posting a new high among strongly negatives.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

..ahhhhhhh. AP forced to renounce his PM Eeyoreism due toobscenely skewed polling.

:-D

The War Planner on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

KW64 on July 24, 2012 at 8:21 PM

They don’t change the electoral map #’s.

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Another poll rigged for Obama. *YAWN*

WannabeAnglican on July 24, 2012 at 8:30 PM

How long will it until we start seeing some D+20 polls?

midgeorgian on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

The week after Labor Day.

Kataklysmic on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

33 percent view Obama very positively

The True Believers. And you won’t change their minds. Ever.

As for the “poll numbers” out of the MSM, if you believe those, then I’ve got a bridge in New York I’d like to sell you. Cheap.

GarandFan on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead. Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

How long will it until we start seeing some D+20 polls?

midgeorgian on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

..after the three-day Dem NC extravaganza and subsequent dead-cat bounce for The Pantload.

The War Planner on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

PPP/Daily Kos is out with a national poll today that has it tied 46-46

Mark1971 on July 24, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Here it is. It’s D +7, so with a 46-46 tie there, pretty clear Romney is ahead. D +7 was 2008. That will NOT be the spread in 2012.

Some interesting stuff in there, too:

barack’s unfavorable is at 50%; Romney’s at 49%.

barack job disapproval at 53%.

barack winning women only by two, 47-45 (not nearly enough to overcome GOP turnout).

barack only getting 78% of black vote; Romney getting 17%

barack only getting 58% of union households vote.

Rational Thought on July 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

reminds me of 2008. we use to think those polls were bs too. guess what?

renalin on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Who’s “we”, moron?

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

barack only getting 78% of black vote; Romney getting 17%

Rational Thought on July 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

If that’s accurate, the election is over.

Kataklysmic on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Another rigged “poll”. What a surprise.

bgibbs1000 on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:18 PM

OT, sorry about the disagreement on Saturday’s thread.

That is all.

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Perhaps, with a little work, next time we disagree we can be a bit more civil about it. (yes, we also means me)

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Yeah, but we all know that the poll blatantly suppressed the Gary Johnszz vote…

BlaxPac on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead. Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Big F’ing deal. I can show you a poll showing overwhelming against the death penalty….if my poll is +12 death row inmates.

msupertas on July 24, 2012 at 8:35 PM

If you lie down with NBC, you get up with a skewed poll.

Finbar on July 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

How long will it until we start seeing some D+20 polls?

midgeorgian on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Probably during the conventions. And yes, I’m taking this question completely seriously. If the pollsters are willing to release such crap that overestimates the Democrat turnout margin at 171% of that in a Dem wave year, then what would stop them from going D+20 to shape their narrative?

Sure, such a stupid sample would be dismantled and dismissed in a half-hour just as this was… but it still remains in the RCP average for 3 weeks or so where it pollutes the falsely-perceived “impartial” polling average by adding 2 points to Barky’s average.

The RCP model that’s been hugely valuable since at least 2004 is falling to crap because the left is now gaming the system. When Barry loses the popular vote by 7 despite the average showing him tied or slightly leading, the whole thing will lose credibility, and justifiably so. I expect tweaks to the system by 2016, or the whole thing to get so ridiculous that it falls completely to the ash heap by 2020.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead. Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

You have a great point.

Unfortunately the Swift Boat Veterans outed Kerry pretty late in his bid against GWB.

The difference this time? Obama pissed of some SEALS

Rut. Roh.

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Surrrrreeee

Lanceman on July 24, 2012 at 8:37 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead.

RCP has 2 with Romney leading you baldface liar

Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

You mean Obama is underperforming Kerry.

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 8:37 PM

It appears,that this Poll,is,

************* SCROTCHED ****************!

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Meh. Another D+12 useless poll meant for nothing other than to shift the aggregators and make them increasingly worthless. The Reuters/Ipsos Obama by 6 outlier was about to fade out of the RCP average, so here’s an equally pointless piece of crap to replace it.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

..so they can keep the RCP O+4 mantra going for UpperYourInfection and the other tools.

:-D

[Insert obligatory discussion as to why averages of polls are sheer mathematical folly here.]

The War Planner on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead. Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Yeah, you have proven nothing but that most pollsters have a Democratic bias. Time travel back to 1980 or so, and that could be ground-breaking news.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

..ahhhhhhh. AP forced to renounce his PM Eeyoreism due toobscenely skewed polling.

:-D

The War Planner on July 24, 2012 at 8:29 PM

ROTFLMAO… Dude… AP’s Eeyore only comes out after about 10 Newcastles, and his cat beat’s him at, arm wrestling, checker’s chess and Dungeons and Dragons.

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

What’s likeable about a guy doing his level best to destroy our economy?

BKeyser on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

You mean NBC would put forward false information?

rob verdi on July 24, 2012 at 8:10 PM

…NBC calls it… “editing”…

KOOLAID2 on July 24, 2012 at 8:39 PM

I bet those numbers were waterboarded!

SouthernGent on July 24, 2012 at 8:39 PM

I’m not usually one for more laws, but we should look into penalizing charlatan polling and pollsters. This stuff is getting so blatant for the Kenyan.

jan3 on July 24, 2012 at 8:40 PM

[Insert obligatory discussion as to why averages of polls are sheer mathematical folly here.]

The War Planner on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Heh. Sorry I jumped the gun and already started in on that rant. Thing is, it was sort of useful to a point in prior cycles, when one just had to account for the inherent biases, but now that they are playing significantly to the averages, it’s just complete useless crap.

Then of course you’ll get guys like Nate Silver that shovel in the crap to create totally unbiased mathematical predictions and percentages in a self-perpetuating cycle of crap. GIGO.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:41 PM

It appears,that this Poll,is,

************* SCROTCHED ****************!

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Scrotched earth.

Lanceman on July 24, 2012 at 8:41 PM

“Yeah, you have proven nothing but that most pollsters have a Democratic bias. Time travel back to 1980 or so, and that could be ground-breaking news.”

You mean when nearly every national poll except Gallup showed Reagan surging into the lead before election day? Let’s see if the polls in October have Romney taking the lead like the one’s in 80 had Reagan ahead.

The side complaining about the polls is always losing.

gumbyandpokey on July 24, 2012 at 8:42 PM

In nearly every poll I’ve seen, when you adjust for the same Republican turnout that occurred in 2004 or 2010, Romney win easily.

BradTank on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

The final, and real, proportion of Dem vs GOP voters on November 6 depends on who will turn out. That is why it is essential to get out the votes from GOP supporters.

bayview on July 24, 2012 at 8:44 PM

The side complaining about the polls is always losing.

gumbyandpokey on July 24, 2012 at 8:42 PM

I see a lot of laffin’.

Very little complainin’ here.

Lanceman on July 24, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I bet those numbers were waterboarded!

SouthernGent on July 24, 2012 at 8:39 PM

SouthernGent:I would love to see a video of that,haha!:)

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:46 PM

reminds me of 2008. we use to think those polls were bs too. guess what?

renalin on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Oh shut up you fake “truecon” If you can’t see through the BS of a D+12 poll, go vote for Obama already.

wargamer6 on July 24, 2012 at 8:47 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead.

Here & Here

Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

So Kerry was in the lead in July 2004.

But who won the Election in November 2004?

Polls are important, but not the best bellwether this far ahead in the race. Polls can change daily because news & issues change daily too.

BlaxPac on July 24, 2012 at 8:47 PM

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Scrotched earth.

Lanceman on July 24, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Lanceman:It appears:)

canopfor on July 24, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Is WSJ in the tank for Obama, too?

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Your ignorance of the content of the WSJ circa 2012 is duly noted. Many times you will find that their “Editorial and Opinion” pages are miles apart from what appears elsewhere. In other words, the WSJ is not the “Conservative Mouthpiece” you seem to think it is.

And they’re just giving their name to the “poll”; it’s actually not done by them.

On the other hand, Gallup, which was founded some 75 years ago, was founded to do polling and nothing else, but in recent years they were forever tainted by their ill-conceived Marriage with that Paragon of Journalistic Integrity, CNN. Of course, CNN then tossed them overboard in 2007 and replaced them with a Polling firm founded by a Major League Clinton Groupie named Vinod Gupta.

Here’s an excellent analysis of this season’s “Polling” skew that came out last week. It conclusively proves that the Democrat oversampling in this season’s “polls” is dramatically higher than in the past.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-skewed-toward-obama_648770.html?nopager=1

Del Dolemonte on July 24, 2012 at 8:47 PM

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:18 PM

OT, sorry about the disagreement on Saturday’s thread.

That is all.

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Perhaps, with a little work, next time we disagree we can be a bit more civil about it. (yes, we also means me)

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

I feel like a group hug is in order.

esr1951 on July 24, 2012 at 8:48 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead. Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Yet, Kerry lost.

Dearest Fred (I will call you Fred, not using the name you have chosen to call yourself on this blog; care to guess why?) if we follow your logic, we need our candidate to be a full 8 points behind, in order to win. Got it.

massrighty on July 24, 2012 at 8:50 PM

reminds me of 2008. we use to think those polls were bs too. guess what?

renalin on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Final Fox News Poll in 2004 had Bush losing.

Del Dolemonte on July 24, 2012 at 8:50 PM

We are yet to see a single national poll showing Willard in the lead. Willard is even under-performing Kerry. On July 2004 Kerry was leading Bush by 8 points!!

Salahuddin on July 24, 2012 at 8:31 PM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2004_eight_years_ago_today.html

wargamer6 on July 24, 2012 at 8:50 PM

In nearly every poll I’ve seen, when you adjust for the same Republican turnout that occurred in 2004 or 2010, Romney win easily.

BradTank on July 24, 2012 at 8:19 PM

That would assume they’re making an accurate translation of the answerer’s opinion, and I wouldn’t even trust that. They use whatever data they want its like Climate Science.

It doesn’t matter. Romney will not win Ohio and probably not Florida either. I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

bernverdnardo1 on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Bradley-Wilder. Every news article about a Republican contributor going onto little Bammie’s enemy list, and getting audited by the IRS adds to Bradley-Wilder.

People are afraid to tell the truth to a stranger on the phone, and they will lie.

slickwillie2001 on July 24, 2012 at 8:50 PM

OT, sorry about the disagreement on Saturday’s thread.

That is all.

Key West Reader on July 24, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Perhaps, with a little work, next time we disagree we can be a bit more civil about it. (yes, we also means me)

SWalker on July 24, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Trolls, take note; this is how conflict is resolved amongst adults.

massrighty on July 24, 2012 at 8:51 PM

wargamer6 on July 24, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I like the way you make your point! :=)

KCB on July 24, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Here it is. It’s D +7, so with a 46-46 tie there, pretty clear Romney is ahead. D +7 was 2008. That will NOT be the spread in 2012.

Rational Thought on July 24, 2012 at 8:32 PM

That why it is important to increase the padding of Dems to a +11 for WSJ/NBC to maintain the fantasy.

bayview on July 24, 2012 at 8:56 PM

The RCP model that’s been hugely valuable since at least 2004 is falling to crap because the left is now gaming the system. When Barry loses the popular vote by 7 despite the average showing him tied or slightly leading, the whole thing will lose credibility, and justifiably so. I expect tweaks to the system by 2016, or the whole thing to get so ridiculous that it falls completely to the ash heap by 2020.

Gingotts on July 24, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Dems will just say the difference shows the election was rigged and needs to be recounted until it is corrected with all the pre and post election ballots counted.

KW64 on July 24, 2012 at 8:57 PM

I feel like a group hug is in order.

esr1951 on July 24, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Better make sure Tingles isn’t in on it, or you may need to change (and burn) your khakis.

BlaxPac on July 24, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Speaking of “Polls”, does anyone know who exactly does the WH Internal Polls? Carville’s gang?

Del Dolemonte on July 24, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Who’s up for ROMNEY GIRL video? “America Street” song on youtube http://youtu.be/PiPYv4NIOEg

joisSC on July 24, 2012 at 9:03 PM

You mean NBC would put forward false information?

rob verdi on July 24, 2012 at 8:10 PM

They’re known as “work days” at NBC.

Chuck Schick on July 24, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Msdnc just giddy with their buddy’s polling

cmsinaz on July 24, 2012 at 9:09 PM

I’m with Rush.
The sole purpose of polls is to skew public opinion.
Jus sayin.

pambi on July 24, 2012 at 9:10 PM

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