Minnesota in play?

posted at 10:41 am on July 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Could Mitt Romney become the first Republican presidential nominee to win Minnesota since … Richard Nixon? Local ABC affiliate KSTP and Survey USA conducted a new poll this past week, and it shows that Barack Obama’s lead has been cut in half, and that he’s well below the 50% mark.  Has presidential politics returned to the Land of 10,000 Lakes? (via Gary Gross)

In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 07/20/12, three months till voting begins, Barack Obama captures the North Star State’s 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 46% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis / St. Paul.

Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama’s advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota’s Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama’s 2:1 advantage among Minnesota’s moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern MN, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.

Interestingly, the likely-voter breakout may undersample Republicans just a bit.  The D/R/I on the sample is 38/32/28, with a D+6.  In the big Democratic wave of 2008, when Obama won Minnesota by double digits, the exit polls showed a D+4 advantage, 40/36/25.  (There are no exit polls for MN from 2010.)  Democrats may well be slightly less inclined to turn out in 2012, but I’d guess that Republicans are more charged up in Minnesota than they were in 2008, and that the 32% is too low.

Obama’s performance is certainly one reason why Democrats might be less inclined to turn out, but the Senate race is another.  It’s not that they’re at risk of losing Amy Klobuchar’s grip on the seat; she leads GOP nominee Kurt Bills by 24 points, about the same gap by which she beat Mark Kennedy in the Democratic wave election of 2006.  If Bills doesn’t do something to get engaged in the media and the race, Klobuchar will win this one in a sleeper — which will not exactly fire up Democrats to run to the polls.

Republicans have two key referendums on the ballot this year, too.  Voters will choose whether to amend the state constitution to require photo-ID for voting, and whether to move the current statutory language defining marriage into a constitutional amendment.  Conservatives expect a strong turnout for support of both, and the poll shows both look likely to pass.  The marriage amendment is ahead 52/37, with majorities of both men (53/39) and women (52/36) in favor.  The voter-ID bill looks even stronger, with almost two-thirds supporting the change (65/28) and even a narrow plurality of Democrats favoring it (48/45).

If Obama can’t get to 50% in Minnesota against Romney this early in the general-election cycle, then it may be a very long election — especially when the voter turnout model has to be shaped by a non-competitive race (so far) for the US Senate seat held by a Democratic incumbent and two popular conservative referendums.


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Mondale squeaked by in his home state to deny Reagan a clean 50-state sweep.

(Fritz also won the District of Columbia.)

aunursa on July 23, 2012 at 10:43 AM

His lead here in New Hampshire has also been cut in half. In April he led Romney by 9, now it’s only by 4. And since the poll’s margin of error is 3%, it’s basically a tie.

What these results suggest is that many of the earlier “polls” used higher over-sampling of Democrats than they are using now.

Del Dolemonte on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Mitt will win by a landslide…but more accurately would be to say that Obama will lose by a landslide.
Any Republican chosen would still be running against the same inept leader, Obama.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Well it would be rude for Minnesotans to vote for Romney. After all, Obama built the state.

Zaggs on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Hopefully we do take MN but it’s still no reason to take the boring/ cap & tax loving Tim Pawlenty as VP!

LevinFan on July 23, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Where’s Walter Mondale when we need him?

/BHO Campaign

ted c on July 23, 2012 at 10:46 AM

If Obama can’t get to 50% in Minnesota against Romney this early in the general-election cycle, then it may be a very long election

Long long–as in a slow, painful Drano IV drip (if you’re a Democrat)….?????

/please

ted c on July 23, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Would be nice if true.

SouthernGent on July 23, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Del Dolemonte on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Also, it’s the trend…once something like this starts moving in a direction it is difficult to stop the momentum.

Once Obama began taking over McCain, there was no setback…the same will happen to Obama.
Unless something like Mitt waking up in bed with 3 hookers and a goat, Obama will be running to save face, not to win.

BTW, if the timing was different, Liz Cheney would make a great VP candidate.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Gales of November coming early for the wreck of the Barry Fitzgerald?

I hear Oberstar is available for surrogate duties.

forest on July 23, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Let’s go to our “Ears on the ground” here at KSTP,

and man known simply as BISHOP.

ToddPA on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’d be very surprised if MN even gets to purple, let alone red, in Nov.

Even if BHO wins MN by a scant 15,000 votes, it’s still a win for him.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

In a worse case scneario, team Obama will manufacture an incident with Iran that will have us at war with them in October. They have no intention of relinquishing power at any cost.

paulsur on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

All States are in play …. Well probably not California.

ashiya on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

His lead here in New Hampshire has also been cut in half. In April he led Romney by 9, now it’s only by 4. And since the poll’s margin of error is 3%, it’s basically a tie.

What these results suggest is that many of the earlier “polls” used higher over-sampling of Democrats than they are using now.

Del Dolemonte on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I’m in NH too.

Are you doing anything to get involved to help Mitt?

I’ve only begun: donated alittle, got bumper stickers on both cares, and a yard sign. Really haven’t seen many other bumper stickers or yard sign– sadly. It was funny actually when I first put up the yard sign — the neighbors kid across the street saw the sign and said “look mommy their house is for sale!” The woman said “voting for Romney too huh?”

Sadly though where is everyone else’s yard signs and bumper stickers?? And it’s not about embracing Mitt, it’s about uniting to defeat the worst president in our history!

Anyways I plan on making phone calls… writing letters, etc. I know Mitt’s site has stuff in place for that. Have you or anyone checked that out yet? Can never be too early to start making phone calls right?

LevinFan on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Maybe Obama could use some of those new drones to fly over Minnesota with banners that read……..”HOPE AND CHANGE” or “BUSH, BUSH, BUSH”.

Since he’s already got Drones in the media why not just have them flying in the sky too?

Maybe install air horns on them to get peoples attention as they fly over?

Maybe they could play the FDR “Happy Days are hear again” tune?

Just trying to help out Baracka.

PappyD61 on July 23, 2012 at 10:51 AM

A Romney-Walker ticket could put this in play. I hope Romney doesn’t disappoint with the VP pick. I think he really only has three choices–Jindal, Walker, and Rubio–that will excite the base. Pick Pawlenty or Portman and he will demoralize the base. He needs the base to win. I hope goes with Walker.

milemarker2020 on July 23, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Don’t we tease ourselves with this and Pennsylvania every election cycle? I will allow myself to be pleasantly surprised if we get one or both, and/or Wisconsin or Michigan, but I’m sure not going to get my hopes up.

kjl291 on July 23, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Mitt will win by a landslide…but more accurately would be to say that Obama will lose by a landslide.
Any Republican chosen would still be running against the same inept leader, Obama.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I agree strongly with this. Anyone could’ve beaten Maobama. It’s too bad many we’re too afraid to nominate a real conservative… but it is what is is.

Go Mitt.

LevinFan on July 23, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Isn’t this the state that elected Jesse Ventura? Anything’s possible.

50sGuy on July 23, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I’ve never been holding my breath for Mondale’s only state to turn red in a presidential election… and I’m not going to start now.

I am encouraged, though, by the polls on the referendums … I remember reading a poll a few months ago suggesting that both were looking good, and it’s nice to see that this is still the case. Back then, though, there was also a Right to Work amendment that was polling well… pity it’s not on the ballot.

Mr. Prodigy on July 23, 2012 at 10:56 AM

I don’t think Mitt takes Minnesota, but I DO think that Barry’s campaign machine will be bleeding a LOT of money to keep states he should be winning solidly.

teke184 on July 23, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Ed

is this response to the Dally Caller saying that Mitt should pick Ryan because that would deliver WI. I know you love TPaw , but he can’t deliver MN. He is a good solider but not for VP

Romney/Ryan 2012

Sparty on July 23, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Too much history of too many stupid votes by MN residents to give this any credence. Yes, people are capable of change…anywhere but Minnesota.

SKYFOX on July 23, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Paging Al Franken, we need you to begin loading your trunk.

hillsoftx on July 23, 2012 at 10:58 AM

One question about the proposed amendments: if they’re approved by voters, do they automatically get added to the state constitution, since they’ve already been voted on by the legislature?

Mr. Prodigy on July 23, 2012 at 10:58 AM

OMG, enough with this nonsense. Romney will not win MN. Romney will not win PA. Romney will not win NJ. Romney will probably not even win NH.

FOCUS ON OHIO, VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gumbyandpokey on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I wonder if MN falls into R hands, what that might bode for Oregon or WA? Those might be bridges too far, but surely worth considering. I would think that if MN fell, that NV would have to as well. But what do I know?

PS: pardon the use of the martial “bridge too far” metaphor. Old tone, I know.

ted c on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Minnesota, eh?

This Obama guy may be in a bit more trouble than he anticipated.

Wanna bet this is gonna really frost Stephie Cutter’s butt?

This was ‘sposed to be a simple shut down Romney campaign and Obama would get re-elected handily because, well, ya see..he’s Obama….best prezdit evah.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

A Romney-Walker ticket could put this in play. I hope Romney doesn’t disappoint with the VP pick. I think he really only has three choices–Jindal, Walker, and Rubio–that will excite the base. Pick Pawlenty or Portman and he will demoralize the base. He needs the base to win. I hope goes with Walker.

milemarker2020 on July 23, 2012 at 10:52 AM

I agree for the most part. My top pick is actually Paul Ryan. He could give us serious credibility about reforming entitlements, put Wisconsin in play, and even help with his connections in Ohio.

So I’d want Romney to pick from: Ryan, Jindal, Walker, Rubio.

I think Walker would probably stay as Gov, but that sure would be an exciting VP pick. Walker would make a great Speaker of the House too!

I don’t like the hispandering Rubio and am very upset at how he threw Bachmann, Goumart, and the others under the bus over asking questions about the Muslim Brotherhood. Strictly politically though I understand how Rubio could be a big help and he’s much better than the bottom tier of Pawlenty or Portman. Rice would be a bad pick too, she’s not a conservative and it would be stupid to pick someone that can be easily tied to Bush.

LevinFan on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Paging Al Franken, we need you to begin loading your trunk.

hillsoftx on July 23, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I heard he got a Volt. Wonder what the ballot carrying capacity of that thing is….?

ted c on July 23, 2012 at 11:00 AM

So Minnesota is full of racist people who hate Blacks for wanting to get rid of the perfect president and for preventing blacks from voting cause blacks NEVER EVER have ANY ID whatsoever./s

BroncosRock on July 23, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Landslide

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on July 23, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, even New Jersey – I’d believe.

Minnesota never. It’s full of idiot voters who elected AL Franken and a Muslim Congressman.

Marcus on July 23, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Has the Obama campaign or Priorities USA been running ads in Minnesota? If so, then this poll is completely believable.

steebo77 on July 23, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Hard to count on the same state that elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken. (What is in the water up there?) I’ll believe Romney has a shot if polls are showing the same thing in mid-October.

changer1701 on July 23, 2012 at 11:04 AM

FOCUS ON OHIO, VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
gumbyandpokey on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Yes and more. We have to be looking at the eeasiest of the other states to pick off. That’s why were talking. Besides, Romney will win Florida and North Carolina. Throw in Indiana, too. Look where there are Republican governors for support.

gracie on July 23, 2012 at 11:05 AM

In a worse case scneario, team Obama will manufacture an incident with Iran that will have us at war with them in October. They have no intention of relinquishing power at any cost.

paulsur on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

And Romney announces that Rubio and he have decieded that Allen West needs to be VP during this time. Game over. Party on somebody elses dime you two griffters in the WH.

VegasRick on July 23, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Can the Obama campaign make up the lost 10 EVs from MN in any of the other 57 states????
/questions.

ted c on July 23, 2012 at 11:08 AM

It’s interesting that here in WI, there are no Obama ads on local stations and the Journal Sentinel had an article yesterday saying that WI isn’t even a battleground state this year. Neither Dems or Republicans really think it’s in play. Don’t know why Obama is so popular here, but he is.

gumbyandpokey on July 23, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Get Involved Minnesota (Obama official website)

Take a gander at that puppy and then tell me if Obama is a lock up there or not. [Maybe in the Twin Cities, but the rest of the state?]

.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Ed’s going POLL crazy!

gerrym51 on July 23, 2012 at 11:10 AM

The voter-ID bill looks even stronger, with almost two-thirds supporting the change (65/28)

Wow, Minnesota is almost as raaaaacist as Arizona.

Who knew?

AZCoyote on July 23, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Isn’t this the state that elected Jesse Ventura?

50sGuy on July 23, 2012 at 10:55 AM

and Al Franken, and Mark Dayton.

bayview on July 23, 2012 at 11:11 AM

OMG, enough with this nonsense. Romney will not win MN. Romney will not win PA. Romney will not win NJ. Romney will probably not even win NH.

FOCUS ON OHIO, VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gumbyandpokey on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Obama an his PACs are spending a ton of money in PA. The more states perceived to be in play, the better.

forest on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Mitt will win by a landslide…

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Super Mitt should win- but not in a landslide.

The media’s ability to control thought and reality amongst the voting masses is still pretty strong. The average guy or gal on the street has never even heard of Fast/Furious, Holder, Solyndra – and never will – as they go to vote.

The SCUM media has found it to be more effective to OMIT the news it is supposed to report, not being satisfied with just manufacturing it.

BTW- Where’s VP Biddie Brains been hiding ?

FlaMurph on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

…would be nice if the 10,000 Lakes would be in play…but then I remember how Al Franken got in… if it’s close?….naaaaaaah!

KOOLAID2 on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Marcus on July 23, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Ellison is basically Minneapolis’s rep, so no matter what it’s going to be some ridiculous lib, and it’s doubtful that Franken really won. Had it been 2006 or 2010 he wouldn’t have.

And, finally, Ventura won with like ~36% of the vote, so almost 2/3rds voted against him.

I’m most embarrassed by Klobuchar, actually, and her widespread adulation.

strictnein on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Don’t we tease ourselves with this and Pennsylvania every election cycle? I will allow myself to be pleasantly surprised if we get one or both, and/or Wisconsin or Michigan, but I’m sure not going to get my hopes up.

kjl291 on July 23, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Actually, Rasmussen has Obama up by only 4 in PA (48-44). While PA MIGHT “tease” us again, it did elect a Republican Governor, Senator, and state legislature in 2010.

Romney, unlike McCain, does have roots in Michigan, which could help him in MI, WI, and MN, and choosing Walker for VP could help him in the Great Lakes.

To win the Presidency, Romney needs to win the McCain states plus IN, FL, NC, VA, OH, and one other state, with CO, WI, IA, NV, and NH being the most likely possibilities. Romney might not need to WIN MI or PA, but they do have lots of Electoral Votes (20 for PA, 15 for MI), and he could force Obama to spend lots of money defending them, and campaign for the win in other states mentioned above.

Steve Z on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

In the coming weeks we will get the GDP report for the second quarter, and the July unemployment report…..with the fact consumer spending has been dropping 3 months in a row…with the “European model’ crashing slowly but surely…and the democrats racing to drive over the taxmeggon cliff…for the rest of the year, the economy will be stuck in place at best. Consumers and businesses will be holding on to money fearing things are getting worse…and they are right.

Obama is trying to avoid the reality of the economic math….

DVPTexFla on July 23, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Obama an his PACs are spending a ton of money in PA. The more states perceived to be in play, the better.

forest on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

They sure are. During a typical hour of television viewing, I probably see 3-4 Obama/Priorities USA ads.

steebo77 on July 23, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Any Republican chosen would still be running against the same inept leader, Obama.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Actually no. If any of Romney’s primary opponents had won, much of the election would have been their fitness for office, and their radicalism. With Romney, we have a candidate who doesn’t have all that baggage and is able to win every moderate voter who we stand a chance of winning. Only if Romney wins by landslide is there any reason to think any of his opponents stood a chance of winning.

thuja on July 23, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Minnesota in play?

Don’t bet on it.

I’m a native Minnesotan. My immediate family broke free of the social democratic ethos that our Norwegian ancestors brought with them to Minnesota, but way too many people in this state still believe there is nothing wrong with society that a little government intervention in the name of fairness won’t fix.

As evidence, I submit Amy Klobuchar, “Skip” Humphrey, Al Franken, Garrison Keillor, Mark Dayton, Paul Wellstone, Walter Mondale, and 1972, the last year a Republican candidate for POTUS carried the state.

Sigh…

MidniteRambler on July 23, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Ijut came back from two weeks fishing up in Ed’s territory. I am surprised to see that Minnesota is “in play”. Unless you are on cable, about the only thing you can pick up over the air on TV is 4 channels of NPR. I have noticed that the more rural areas are going full tit for the internet; maybe that is the soure of their information. I even saw a headline in the Strib that was unusually even handed. Many of the people still have crackpot ideas and will elect certifiable nuts, but that might be changing in the overall population.

Old Country Boy on July 23, 2012 at 11:19 AM

W

here’s VP Biddie Brains been hiding ?

FlaMurph on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Still trying to get Chuck to stand up?

[Team Obama probably has him locked up in the bunker at Raven Rock or Mount Weather...he's a bit toxic. Those tawdry pick-up lines Old Joe, God Bless him, was trying out on Valerie and Stephie got old real quick, I am told.]

:-)

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 11:20 AM

I wonder if MN falls into R hands, what that might bode for Oregon or WA? Those might be bridges too far, but surely worth considering.

Put that thought right out of your head. Both OR and WA have 100%-by-mail voting now: Not only do you not need photo ID to vote, but if the guy at the election office finds your name on a list of donors to the wrong candidates or signatories to the wrong petition, he can simply toss your ballot in the trash. The only races Democrats are going to lose here are ones they don’t care enough about to cheat in.

Fabozz on July 23, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Actually, Rasmussen has Obama up by only 4 in PA (48-44). While PA MIGHT “tease” us again, it did elect a Republican Governor, Senator, and state legislature in 2010.

Steve Z on July 23, 2012 at 11:13 AM

In the big picture, if Obama has to expend more resources defending PA than we do to make it competitive, it’s worth making an effort in PA. I do think Romney can relatively cheaply annoy Obama in PA.

thuja on July 23, 2012 at 11:20 AM

MidniteRambler on July 23, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I agree with your general outlook. However, if it even gets close in MN, Romney is a lock nationwide. Also, despite the Red Star’s polls, it seems both the marriage amendment and voter Id will pass. That’s a big deal in this state. The marriage amendment folks can still depend on Iron Range, Northern MN Democrats being socially conservative.

IR-MN on July 23, 2012 at 11:21 AM

…would be nice if the 10,000 Lakes would be in play…but then I remember how Al Franken got in… if it’s close?….naaaaaaah!

The Iron Range is Minnesota’s answer to the Daley Machine, complete with one hundred missing votes for Franken mysteriously appearing out of nowhere when needed.

MidniteRambler on July 23, 2012 at 11:22 AM

What is disconcerting about this is the Senate seat. FOr the life of me, I can’t figure out why anyone for vote to retain a Democrat in the Senate, after the way they’ve performed. I also can’t believe I’m the only one who feels that way. Has Klobuchar done anything to push Reid to pass a budget?

bflat879 on July 23, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Don’t we tease ourselves with this and Pennsylvania every election cycle? I will allow myself to be pleasantly surprised if we get one or both, and/or Wisconsin or Michigan, but I’m sure not going to get my hopes up.

kjl291 on July 23, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Team Romney’s first focus should be on targeting the swing states most likely to get him past the 270 margin, and then, if the polls keep going against Obama, work their way out to states like PA or MN which could also flip. There’s no point in spending cash on TV ads targeting Minneapolis-area voters if you’re losing the ad war to Obama in the TV markets in Virginia and still are at risk of losing that state in November.

jon1979 on July 23, 2012 at 11:25 AM

By the way, in the whitefish lake area, about every third or fourth “vacation” mansion on the lake is for sale. For all you HA fans, keep the “Whitefish chain of lakes” in mind (in spite of its hokey name)for a super great vacation, and not too expensive. Go to Moondance up at Walker in July. Visit all the Antique/junque stores and sheds Remember, they are on the internet now, so they now know what their stuff is worth>

Old Country Boy on July 23, 2012 at 11:26 AM

They sure are. During a typical hour of television viewing, I probably see 3-4 Obama/Priorities USA ads.
steebo77 on July 23, 2012 at 11:17 AM

We need to turn the Independents on to watching Turtle Man (Call of the Wildman) and Cat from Hell and Gator Boys instead of Obama’s ads. Much more fun and truth telling on Animal Planet.

gracie on July 23, 2012 at 11:26 AM

FOCUS ON OHIO, VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gumbyandpokey on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

They are done deals. Wrapped up with a bow on top for Romney.

Romney may or may not flip Minnesota (whose legislature did go red in 2010 btw – and Emmer only lost to Dayton by a nose). But the main point of highlighting polls like this is to show that Obama’s support NATIONWIDE has dropped substantially. Obama won Minnesota by 10 points. He is ahead by 6 in this poll. Obama won New Mexico by 15 points. Last poll had him ahead by 5. His NH and PA leads are also cut in half.

And many polling outfits are just barely starting to sub their LV screens for their RV or adult screens.

If Obama is reduced to defending bluish-purple states (in July!), he is going to lose.

Missy on July 23, 2012 at 11:28 AM

To the people of Minnesota Michigan, Pennsylvania Wisconsin..New Mexico….if this news means you have to see Obama more advertisements which may mean those of us in Florida might see less Obama advertisement….I want to thank you in advance…If nothing else you are taking one for the team.

DVPTexFla on July 23, 2012 at 11:29 AM

It would be awesome to take Minn, but even if it’s only in play, it will be delightful to see obama drain his filthy coffers to keep himself on top there. That’s gonna hurt. HA HA!

paul1149 on July 23, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Gumby’s “Gee, I don’t know why Obama’s sooo popular, but he just is!” concern-trolling is repetitive, predictable and beyond tiresome.
How anyone, following the results of the Scott Walker recall, which the Dems and the unions were desperate to win, could just write off Wisconsin to the Punk in Chief without a second thought is beyond me.

Right Mover on July 23, 2012 at 11:30 AM

There’s no point in spending cash on TV ads targeting Minneapolis-area voters if you’re losing the ad war to Obama in the TV markets in Virginia and still are at risk of losing that state in November.

jon1979 on July 23, 2012 at 11:25 AM

It forces Obama to spend cash and time there. Two things he has increasingly less of as the days pass.

Missy on July 23, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Portman for OHIO. Pawlenty for MN. what could go wrong?

gerrym51 on July 23, 2012 at 11:30 AM

FOCUS ON OHIO, VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
gumbyandpokey on July 23, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Yes and more. We have to be looking at the eeasiest of the other states to pick off. That’s why were talking. Besides, Romney will win Florida and North Carolina. Throw in Indiana, too. Look where there are Republican governors for support.

gracie on July 23, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Ohio’s already a lock. Obama is not winning Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on July 23, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Anyways I plan on making phone calls… writing letters, etc. I know Mitt’s site has stuff in place for that. Have you or anyone checked that out yet? Can never be too early to start making phone calls right?

LevinFan on July 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Due to my totally unpredictable work schedule I don’t have much time for much of that stuff, but will be doing the letter writing thing as time permits.

Del Dolemonte on July 23, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Why is Gallup posting that O’s approval numbers are up for the third straight month ( see headlines)?

esr1951 on July 23, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Oops…make that 3rd straight quarter.

esr1951 on July 23, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I’ll say the same thing I say when asked about Wisconsin being in play – if Minnesota were truly in play, we’re looking at, at a minimum, a repeat of 1988.

Gumbyandpokey brought up a piece from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel yesterday. We did just see 2 rounds of recalls in which somewhere north of $60 million was spent, most of which was spent this year. Indeed, that has squelched advertising in the 3-way (it would be 4-way, but Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald has no money) Senate race.

Steve Eggleston on July 23, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Take a gander at that puppy and then tell me if Obama is a lock up there or not. [Maybe in the Twin Cities, but the rest of the state?]

[coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 11:09 AM]

Okay, you had me looking for a puppy. D’oh.

Dusty on July 23, 2012 at 11:45 AM

AKA, please please pick Pawlenty for Veep candidate, Mitt…

/s

cs89 on July 23, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Dusty on July 23, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Minnesotan is a tough language to crack. :-)

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Why is Gallup posting that O’s approval numbers are up for the third straight month ( see headlines)?
esr1951 on July 23, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I don’t know but someone else said something really funny about 10 days ago on HA. The polling questions are ones like this:

“What would you rather have: 4 more years of Obama or a$$ cancer?”

gracie on July 23, 2012 at 12:03 PM

What is important, Obama will have to spend money and campaign there. Like any quality military operation, you want to spread the enemies defenses out as much as possible, you want him to use resources where he normally would never have to…it doesn’t matter if it’s a battle ground, it just has to be made like it could be.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Hmmm.

Uh oh…

Romney vetting VP candidates.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM

And yes, I do know it is from The Onion.

:-)

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Why is Gallup posting that O’s approval numbers are up for the third straight month ( see headlines)?
esr1951 on July 23, 2012 at 11:37 AM

That’s actually not right. His 14th quarter average is up slightly from his 13th quarter average.

His recent monthly averages:

April – 47%
May – 47%
June – 46%

We don’t know July yet, but I did a quick calculation based on the daily numbers and I have him at 45.7 so far for the month.

Missy on July 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Missy on July 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Thanks!

esr1951 on July 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Right mover – I think Gumby is correct in his assessment of Wisconsin. Obama has been steadily losing ground everywhere, except Wisconsin with its consistent upper single digit margin.

I just don’t see Wisc voting for Mitt. It makes no sense, but I don’t, the energy isn’t there for the flip like it is in Michigan.

And like some other posters, MN being in play? I need to see more. I saw MN as one of Obama’s locks after MA, NY, IL, CA.

Zomcon JEM on July 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM

With trends like this all over the country, makes it all the more safer to vote conservative/libertarian 3rd party. I’d be happy with a 45-35-20 split with Oboobi taking the 35%. That’ll leave the GOP with figuring out why they lost the 20%.

AH_C on July 23, 2012 at 12:27 PM

esr1951 on July 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM

You’re welcome!

Missy on July 23, 2012 at 12:40 PM

With trends like this all over the country, makes it all the more safer to vote conservative/libertarian 3rd party.

AH_C on July 23, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Remember when we thought it was a lock that SCOTUS was throwing out the mandate? Leave nothing to chance. This isn’t Harry Truman we’re trying to unseat.

The Count on July 23, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Minnesota leans so far to the left that its residents all have skinned knuckles on the left hands . . . I doubt you’ll see any significant change in that condition.

rplat on July 23, 2012 at 12:51 PM

I think Romney is winning the projected electoral vote count right now, but the press and pollsters will never let it look like Romney is winning – because it would give him more momentum.

michaelthomas on July 23, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Not if our little “non party friend” has anything to say about it!

MNHawk on July 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

The voter-ID bill looks even stronger, with almost two-thirds supporting the change (65/28) and even a narrow plurality of Democrats favoring it (48/45).

If that passes, how is Al Franken going to win reelection?

Odysseus on July 23, 2012 at 1:46 PM

If this keeps up I expect Joe Biden demenia stories to start rolling in, he’s been showing signs for years now.

Obama/Clooney 2012

Wagthatdog on July 23, 2012 at 1:59 PM

If Obama can’t get to 50% in Minnesota against Romney this early in the general-election cycle, then it may be a very long election

Sure I could find a very similar article about McCain beating Obama here in 2008.

Looks to me like the polling company is playing games for ratings.

Steveangell on July 23, 2012 at 2:15 PM

The Iron Range is Minnesota’s answer to the Daley Machine, complete with one hundred missing votes for Franken mysteriously appearing out of nowhere when needed.

MidniteRambler on July 23, 2012 at 11:22 AM

There’s a couple dozen sitting in the trunk of some car at the Ramsey County courthouse in Maplewood for good measure.

Nelsen on July 23, 2012 at 2:40 PM

No way Romney wins here. This poll has some funky crosstabs. Romney ahead in NE Minnesota? That’s the Iron Range + Duluth AKA the GOP’s worse region in the state. Any road that’s not underwater here in Duluth is lined with cars sporting O stickers so I’m not believing it.

I do believe we can pull it out in WI and MI though. And if Obama has to spend in MN… the Twin Cities media market isn’t cheap.

Nelsen on July 23, 2012 at 2:43 PM

With trends like this all over the country, makes it all the more safer to vote conservative/libertarian 3rd party.

AH_C on July 23, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Thinking like this could yet help reelect Obama.

15 weeks to go. Don’t do anything stupid we will all regret.

Adjoran on July 23, 2012 at 2:49 PM

It’s a long time until the election. However, if MN, WI, MI are all in play Democrats have to be worried.

jpmn on July 23, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Gales of November coming early for the wreck of the Barry Fitzgerald?
forest on July 23, 2012 at 10:49 AM

THREAD WINNER!
Oblique and humorous references to great songs are always appreciated.

Marcola on July 23, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Woah! Woah! Woah! Minnesota? C’mon! If Obama loses in Minnesota, then we’re gonna need something bigger than the Humpbot. MUCH BIGGER!

MrX on July 23, 2012 at 5:37 PM

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