Another recession coming?

posted at 12:01 pm on July 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

As the jobs numbers and other economic data start retreating, one bright spot has been corporate earnings.  In part, businesses survived by extracting maximum efficiency during the 2007-8 Great Recession, and held onto earnings as the investment climate became more and more hostile.  Now even that bright spot may be coming to an end, according to CNBC, as earnings forecasts grow the most pessimistic since 2008:

While this quarter’s earnings reports have crossed a substantially lowered profit bar, future expectations through the year indicate a recession could be on the way.

Estimates for the third and fourth quarters have been dropped to levels not seen since the days of the 2008 financial crisis, below even the muted 2 percent expected level of inflation.

That’s an ominous recession sign for an economy that has barely managed to attain positive growth this year even with the strong level of earnings beats, according to an analysis by Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx in New York.

“Revenue estimates for the back half of 2012 have been slowly working their way lower this year,” Colas said. “This trend, however, has accelerated to the downside over the past 30 days and we are fast approaching levels where these estimates are unambiguously pointing to the risk of a U.S./global recession later into 2012 and 2013.”

This, of course, deals with the technical definition of recession.  In order to have a true recession in the technical sense, an economy has to suffer negative growth (contraction) for two successive quarters.  We have not yet had one quarter of contraction, but the recent indicators show the economy heading in that direction.

For many Americans, however, the economy never really rebounded in the first place.  More than three years after the start of the technical recovery, poverty levels will soon rise above anything seen in the US since the 1960s:

The ranks of America’s poor are on track to climb to levels unseen in nearly half a century, erasing gains from the war on poverty in the 1960s amid a weak economy and fraying government safety net.

Census figures for 2011 will be released this fall in the critical weeks ahead of the November elections.

The Associated Press surveyed more than a dozen economists, think tanks and academics, both nonpartisan and those with known liberal or conservative leanings, and found a broad consensus: The official poverty rate will rise from 15.1 percent in 2010, climbing as high as 15.7 percent. Several predicted a more modest gain, but even a 0.1 percentage point increase would put poverty at the highest level since 1965.

The economists interviewed by the AP point to low-wage jobs, but that’s not the real problem; it’s a lack of any jobs:

Poverty is closely tied to joblessness. While the unemployment rate improved from 9.6 percent in 2010 to 8.9 percent in 2011, the employment-population ratio remained largely unchanged, meaning many discouraged workers simply stopped looking for work. Food stamp rolls, another indicator of poverty, also grew.

During this three-year recovery, we have not added enough jobs to keep pace with population growth.  We add somewhere between 125,000 to 150,000 working-age adults on average each month, but we have only added 65,200 jobs on average each month since June 2009, the start of the recovery. That means that we have gone backwards in terms of population growth by more than 2.2 million jobs that we needed just to keep pace.  Thanks to the depressed job market, wages remain low because of the huge numbers of people who seek work, and the huge numbers of people who have given up out of despair.

Until this recovery, the aggregation of solid earnings after a recovery preceded expansion and job growth.  In this recovery, the massive amount of regulation — and especially the ambiguities of regulation in ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank — along with tax-policy signals has forced companies to shield earnings and capital rather than invest in expansion.  Until those policies change, our economy won’t expand, won’t add new jobs at a rate needed to keep up with a growing population (which should produce growing demand that businesses would love to be able to meet), and poverty will increase rather than decrease.

Are we heading into another recession?  For more and more Americans, the last one never ended.


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How can another recession be coming when we have never gotten out of the last one?

ABC’s Criminal Maleficence.

SWalker on July 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM

But his approval is UP – gees, don’t you guys pay attention?

KMC1 on July 23, 2012 at 12:05 PM

There is no good news for Obama…none.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Another?

Flora Duh on July 23, 2012 at 12:08 PM

According to several commentators at FBN ( Demand It ! )
we’re already there .

Lucano on July 23, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Another recession coming? I don’t recall the first one ending.

clippermiami on July 23, 2012 at 12:09 PM

We need to give amnesty to more people. /sarc

Fraying social safety net? What? The number of people on the dole has skyrocketed. When will the bill to us tax payers come due?

Charlemagne on July 23, 2012 at 12:10 PM

The economy’s health and Obama’s reelection chances are inversely related.

aquaviva on July 23, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Focused like a laser!

a capella on July 23, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Rumors are that whatever “growth” there was in the second quarter was due to inventory padding. That means we are either in recession or any little economic event will put us there.

Politics aside, we are in very bad shape. Maybe Obama should consult with Romney and Ryan right now about what to do, rather than wait for the obviously coming disaster to hit full force.

MTF on July 23, 2012 at 12:12 PM

No worries dear leaders approval numbers keep going up
/

cmsinaz on July 23, 2012 at 12:12 PM

“You didn’t build that company, and I didn’t build this recession.” – President Obama

NotCoach on July 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM

The old media’s criteria for recession or not are radically different depending on the party of the president in power. Even when our economy was doing well under President George W. Bush, with positive job growth month after month, the liberals would sniff -”yes, but they are not quality jobs.”

“Yes but the jobs added are mostly in the service sector.”

slickwillie2001 on July 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM

The important question is will these become evident before election day?

Cindy Munford on July 23, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute: “The US Is In Recession Already”

Deutsche Bank Hides The Hopium: “The Next Recession Should Start By The End Of August”

Charles Biderman: “We Are In The First Quarter Of The Next Recession”

http://ycharts.com/indicators/purchasing_managers_index/chart

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/eco3.jpg

PMI below 50 = contraction.

Viator on July 23, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Are we heading into another recession? For more and more Americans, the last one never ended.

truth.

ted c on July 23, 2012 at 12:14 PM

If the rate of economic growth is less than a)inflation, b)population growth, or c)both, then how is it economic growth?

michaelthomas on July 23, 2012 at 12:14 PM

There is no good news for Obama…none.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM

And that affects Obama how? With every left-wing media outlet, every left-wing Hollywoodite, every left-wing college professor spinning the news in his favor as fast as they can, all this bad news will just roll off his back. Remember how Reagan was nicknamed “the teflon president”? Well, meet it squared.

catsandbooks on July 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Focused like a laser!

a capella on July 23, 2012 at 12:11 PM

S/B “Focused like a loser”

VegasRick on July 23, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Hey! Barry says “We’re headed in the right direction!”

GarandFan on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

If the Friday GDP number comes out on the low side then Obama’s goose will really be cooked – as in well done a little on the charred side. His only (and I mean only) argument for reelection, silly as it is, is that his stewardship brought us through the 2008/09 crisis – I know I laugh every time I hear that too. But, it’s somewhat difficult to make the argument that his steerage brought us through storm all while we head into another even larger one.

volnation on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Another recession coming? I don’t recall the first one ending.

clippermiami on July 23, 2012 at 12:09 PM

.
I second that mnotion

listens2glenn on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Send in the clowns…

Don’t bother they’re here.

Question: if two pints make a quart, how many recessions make a depression?

Big problem is that we can’t sell apples on the street corner anymore like back in the 30′s.

Have to get permits, a license, satisfy OSHA and EPA and Dept of Agriculture requirements first, then make sure you obtain your apples from an approved vendor, union vendor obviously, and then there is the IRS, gotta keep accurate records of each sale…and so forth.

Another recession?

Let’s be honest….it is a depression, and damn depressing that more folks are afraid to admit it.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Are we heading into another recession? For more and more Americans, the last one never ended.

Not much being heard from those on funemployment anymore.

But what really bothers me is the complete and total lack of empathy from Obama when he is out there talking about unemployment. He talks about the unemployed as if they are units and not Americans. He seems to consider it a personal affront that so many units are still whining about their need for jobs instead of chanting O-BAM-A.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Let’s be honest….it is a depression, and damn depressing that more folks are afraid to admit it.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Just heard a great quote from Michelle Malkin.

Romney supporters sign the front of checks. Obama supporters sign the back of them.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:18 PM

There will be no talk of “recession”, or “depression.” Such counter-revolutionary, agitation terms are to be eliminated, and the following substitution shall be used:

Double plus ungood economic event.

- Zero

OhEssYouCowboys on July 23, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Blame bush!

cmsinaz on July 23, 2012 at 12:20 PM

We’ve been saying that another recession is coming… for 2 years … it seems. But unemployment has been angling downward pretty much, at least that’s the impression.

A decisive percentage of voters either don’t care so much about the economy issue, or hold the 2 candidates equal on it.

The election is not about the economy. If we make it about that, we will lose. Look at Gallup now saying that for 3 quarters in a row O’s approval has gone up! We have to knock down O’s approval on the whole gamut of issues, and that means attacking with brutal force, across the board on multiple issues, or O’s approval just continues to drift up, and he wins.

The economy isn’t everything. GWB nearly lost despite a clearly vibrant economy in ’04. And the economy issue effectively takes out of play Obama’s extreme leftism, radicalism. Oh yes, it’s about the out of control govt, runaway spending, immigration, the new morality, the coddling of the mosque-ers, CIA prosecutions… the short-run economy is actually less important than these other more profound issues.

anotherJoe on July 23, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Can we get this recession BS behind us?
I have to prepare to pay an extra $4,000/year on health insurance by 2014.

Electrongod on July 23, 2012 at 12:22 PM

How can another recession be coming when we have never gotten out of the last one?

ABC’s Criminal Maleficence.

SWalker on July 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM

…thanks SWalker!…didn’t have to get past your first comment…we’ve been in a recession since 2008!

KOOLAID2 on July 23, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Not to go all tin-foil hat, but I don’t necessarily believe the positive GDP numbers that came out the previous quarters.

MobileVideoEngineer on July 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Hey! Barry says “We’re headed in the right direction!”

GarandFan on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Other things Barry says:

Nobody succeeds in building a business without government help. No matter how smart they are or how many hours of hard work they put into it, every business succeeds due to government. No explanation for Solydra.

Hawaii is part of Asia.

There are 57 states.

The Maldives are off the coast of South America.

The Cambridge Police Department acted stupidly when they arrested an angry black man who refused to show them any idea.

If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.

Obamacare will not cost Americans one more cent than they are already paying.

The Golden Gate Bridge was financed by the government.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Can somebody please ask Obama to stop “focusing like a laser”?

The only thing this Administration is focusing on is our complete and utter economic destruction.

I am beginning to believe Obama’s plan is to have rioting in the streets to delay our election like some third-world banana republic.

Right now I would vote for the Hamburglar to be President. Even he would do a better job.

Marcus Traianus on July 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Another recession ? Oh yesss…yess..
:D

burrata on July 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM

I have to prepare to pay an extra $4,000/year on health insurance by 2014.

Electrongod on July 23, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Not to mention taxmageddon in January 2013.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Focused like a laser deer in the headlights!

a capella on July 23, 2012 at 12:11 PM

BacaDog on July 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Not to mention taxmageddon in January 2013.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM

“Republican scare tactic”
*libturd

VegasRick on July 23, 2012 at 12:35 PM

This is what JImmy Carter has been waiting for…finally he can sleep a little better, there is now The One who who is a worse POTUS than he.

CCRWM on July 23, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Proggies rubbing their hands, smacking their lips and tingling their legs – because to them, poverty growth = big gubmint growth.

Marcola on July 23, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Jobs Council…Hardest Hit

FlaMurph on July 23, 2012 at 12:38 PM

How can another recession be coming when we have never gotten out of the last one?

ABC’s Criminal Maleficence.

SWalker on July 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Exactly.

I own a small retail business. Starting in 2008, every year has finished with lower gross sales than the year before. I honestly do not see any improvement until we get rid of Barry, Harry, the Dems in general and all their idiot regulations.

If Barry wins reelection, I guarantee you: the loss of capital we experienced in 2008-9 will be nothing compared to the amount of capital stampeding for the doors the minute the election is called. And Barry will have kept his campaign promise of fundamentally changing America; he will have changed America from the world’s leading economic power to just another failed third world country.

catsandbooks on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Caution, cliff ahead, speed 100 mph.

hillsoftx on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

If you’re a welfare junkie this is the biggest boom time in the history of our country.

Wigglesworth on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Right now I would vote for the Hamburglar to be President. Even he would do a better job.

Marcus Traianus on July 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

With a food nazi as first lady, I’m pretty sure the Hamburgler is being detained at Gitmo, along with the Trix bunny and the Pillsbury Dough Boy.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

WINNING!
 
inthemiddle on July 23, 2012 at 12:37 PM

rogerb on July 23, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Obama…from hard pivots to deep divots.

As for “focus”…I believe Obama consistently misspells that word.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Another recession coming?

With Barry, Benny and Timmy running things, is that a trick question?

bayview on July 23, 2012 at 12:42 PM

“Republican scare tactic”
*libturd

VegasRick on July 23, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Tell you what. Let’s see what happens in Congress after your filthy god is voted out of office along with Dem majority in the Senate. Should make for an interesting lame duck session as taxmageedon looms and Obama opens up the “Office of the former President” storefront.

Happy Nomad on July 23, 2012 at 12:42 PM

I wonder does it matter that we understand this if the poor don’t? Isn’t this the plan? To have so many poor dependent on the government that they vote for those who will take from others to give to them? Isn’t this how Chavez got elected in Venezuela?

This is the last race to see who can control the levers of power from here on out..the producers or the takers

CCRWM on July 23, 2012 at 12:45 PM

But his approval is UP – gees, don’t you guys pay attention?

KMC1 on July 23, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Well then, this will surely push him over the top of the 50% job approval. The world is upsidedown

magicbeans on July 23, 2012 at 12:47 PM

This, of course, deals with the technical definition of recession. In order to have a true recession in the technical sense, an economy has to suffer negative growth (contraction) for two successive quarters.

I have to point this out to retards several times every week, but when you factor in population growth and the REAL inflation rate, the economy has been contracting nearly every quarter since Obama took office.

logis on July 23, 2012 at 12:48 PM

SWalker on July 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Exactly.

I own a small retail business. Starting in 2008, every year has finished with lower gross sales than the year before. I honestly do not see any improvement until we get rid of Barry, Harry, the Dems in general and all their idiot regulations.

If Barry wins reelection, I guarantee you: the loss of capital we experienced in 2008-9 will be nothing compared to the amount of capital stampeding for the doors the minute the election is called. And Barry will have kept his campaign promise of fundamentally changing America; he will have changed America from the world’s leading economic power to just another failed third world country.

catsandbooks on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

The loss of capitol that is coming, is well, coming regardless of who is POTUS. The losses that are coming are more Congresses making than anything else. A new President can set a New Agenda, hopefully a rational agenda.

But most importantly we must gain conservative seats in congress, especially in the senate so that we can evict Dirty Harry from his current position as Dictator of the Senate and begin the process of eliminating Federal Programs that do more harm than good and the draconian over regulations that are killing our economy.

http://tinyurl.com/d8pcgk3

SWalker on July 23, 2012 at 12:52 PM

But… but… the private sector is doing fine.

He said so.

VietVet_Dave on July 23, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Can somebody please ask Obama to stop “focusing like a laser”?
Marcus Traianus on July 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Obama “focusing like a laser” on jobs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=djZFHTa6TfA

magicbeans on July 23, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Sorry for the OT but where’s AP? He is coming back, right?

scalleywag on July 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Another recession? Quick raise taxes to 75%!!!!!!!!

tom daschle concerned on July 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Tax the rich! And, er, the almost rich!…………and, uh, the kinda, sorta maybe some day rich!

nico on July 23, 2012 at 1:02 PM

tom daschle concerned on July 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Quick, another trillion $$ stimulus! Any solar companies left we can dole out a few hundred million to?

scalleywag on July 23, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Sorry for the OT but where’s AP? He is coming back, right?

scalleywag on July 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Been on vacation. I think he will be back today.

Barred on July 23, 2012 at 1:15 PM

There is no good news for Obama…none.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Huh? Since when is a prolonged recession/depression “bad news” for Obama? This is part of his plan, and it’s going quite well for him – at least until Nov 6, that is, when he will ‘unexpectedly’ be sent packing and the recovery begins.

Harbingeing on July 23, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Don’t spend ten cents on anything you don’t need until late October, when it will be too late to help Obama.

Delay or eliminate any discretionary spending. We can all have the greatest holiday season of our lives knowing that this vile Empty Suit is on his way out the door.

My wife wants a new range/oven. I told her, yes, any time from late October on.

matthew8787 on July 23, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Increasingly likely. The global slowdown has taken a toll, but there may still be enough economic activity to keep the economy growing (slowly) for the rest of the year. The problem will come next year when fiscal policy changes hit. Initial 2Q12 GDP estimate is due out Friday; expectations are low, and if it comes in much above 1% it will be considered good news.

TouchdownBuddha on July 23, 2012 at 1:20 PM

The idea of this WH resident even poling in the 40′s is an unbelievable statistic.
He and his henchmen have to go.

FireBlogger on July 23, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I own a small retail business. Starting in 2008, every year has finished with lower gross sales than the year before. I honestly do not see any improvement until we get rid of Barry, Harry, the Dems in general and all their idiot regulations.

If Barry wins reelection, I guarantee you: the loss of capital we experienced in 2008-9 will be nothing compared to the amount of capital stampeding for the doors the minute the election is called. And Barry will have kept his campaign promise of fundamentally changing America; he will have changed America from the world’s leading economic power to just another failed third world country.

catsandbooks on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Ditto that – exactly. I have a sales graph for my retail business going back to 2007 which peaked (with a bullitt!) in May 2008, just before Obama clinched the nomination in June. Since the week he clinched, our sales figures turned downward and were nosediving by November 2008. We’re barely hanging on right now, and can’t take another kick to the gut.

Harbingeing on July 23, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Sure, cynical Republicans will try to portray increasing levels of poverty as evidence that Obama and his team don’t understand and/or don’t care about the economy. But true forward-thinking Leftists recognize this as an exciting expansion of the Democrat base!

Blacklake on July 23, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Sorry for the OT but where’s AP? He is coming back, right?

scalleywag on July 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Who do you think is doing the headlines? He should have posts popping up by 3:30 as usual.

Steve Eggleston on July 23, 2012 at 1:32 PM

“The private sector is doing fine.” ~Barack Hussein Obama, June 8, 2012

timberline on July 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Caution, cliff ahead, speed 100 mph.

hillsoftx on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Forward!

LoganSix on July 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Thank God President Obama is spending so much time meeting with this Jobs Council and in meetings on job creation.

Wagthatdog on July 23, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Sorry for the OT but where’s AP? He is coming back, right?

scalleywag on July 23, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Gone Galt.

LoganSix on July 23, 2012 at 1:46 PM

I can’t even imagine the news right now if a Republican President had these same numbers.

We might even have death tolls on television again that somehow went away when Obama took office.

Instead of the domestic violence stories we get to hear how people are spending more time with family without the stress of a job…

This is bizarro land stuff.

I’d even bet the media would blame a Republican President for Fort Hood and Aurora.

Wagthatdog on July 23, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Not to go all tin-foil hat, but I don’t necessarily believe the positive GDP numbers that came out the previous quarters.

MobileVideoEngineer on July 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I absolutely agree.

Government has been tinkering with the numbers for the last few decades. Clinton changed the U3 reporting so that those not looking for jobs would fall off the report. Obama changed the inflation reporting to stop including basic commodities. Obama used an Executive Order to drop the work requirement for welfare… why?… so that those people would drop off the U3 number and the numbers would improve before November.

Come on people. We haven’t left the recession. The only way we have positive GDP is if we ignore the under-reported 9% inflation. And at that point, its no longer a recession… its a DEPRESSION.

Just once, I’d like to see honest reporting using the same calculations used during the 1920s and 30s. You know… apples to apples comparison. I think people would be SHOCKED at how bad we’re doing.

dominigan on July 23, 2012 at 1:49 PM

The other one ended?

LOL…

deedtrader on July 23, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Caution, cliff ahead, speed 100 mph.

hillsoftx on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Forward!

LoganSix on July 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Ramming speed!

Steve Eggleston on July 23, 2012 at 1:54 PM

We should start calling it the Obamaconomy–perpetual recession

phillypolitics on July 23, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Name one initiative or policy forwarded by this Regime that is pro-business or economically favorable.

There is none. NONE.

tom daschle concerned on July 23, 2012 at 1:58 PM

We look at the pictures of Bread-Lines from the Great Depression, of men lined up, six across, stretching off into the distance, and think that things might be bad now, but they were surely much worse back then.

Well, if you forced the 45 Million Americans on the Food Stamp Program to line up to get their food, the line would stretch, six abreast, from New York City to Los Angeles, California.

There are more poor than ever. We have just gotten better at hiding them.

Haiku Guy on July 23, 2012 at 2:00 PM

But… but… the private sector is doing fine.

He said so.

VietVet_Dave on July 23, 2012 at 12:55 PM

“The private sector is doing fine.” ~Barack Hussein Obama, June 8, 2012

timberline on July 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Just got back from grocery shopping and I happened to notice all the businesses that have closed in the adjacent strip mall. There are two restaurants closed and a third that never opened after signs went up.

There are two large areas where an appliance store and an electronics store used to reside that are now empty. A gift shop and beauty shop that are closed.

It’s kinda scary when you start to notice all the vacant store fronts. Businesses that were active and thriving just a few years ago, gone.

President Obama must live in an alternate universe.

Fallon on July 23, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Name one initiative or policy forwarded by this Regime that is pro-business or economically favorable.

There is none. NONE.

tom daschle concerned on July 23, 2012 at 1:58 PM

1. Unemployment Benefits
2. Food Stamps

“Providing Food Stamps and Unemployment Benefits Are The Two ‘Most Stimulative’ Things for U.S. Economy.” ~ House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) July 17, 2012

timberline on July 23, 2012 at 2:09 PM

This is precisely what 52% of the electorate voted for in 2008.

tom daschle concerned on July 23, 2012 at 2:09 PM

There are more poor than ever. We have just gotten better at hiding them.

Haiku Guy on July 23, 2012 at 2:00 PM

So true…..(sigh)

timberline on July 23, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Caution, cliff ahead, speed 100 mph.

hillsoftx on July 23, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Forward!

LoganSix on July 23, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Capn’ Obinga to Engine Room: All ahead Flank!

98ZJUSMC on July 23, 2012 at 2:24 PM

So, which QE are we on now? I lose track.

DDay on July 23, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Thanks to the failed policies and business-bashing actions of OBOZO and his dictatorial regime, the American economy is no longer on life support – it is stone cold dead. Rigor mortis has passed and the economy has now become just a decaying, stinking corpse. In spite of this, bailout bernanke, to justify his massive salary and humongous benefits, continues to provide mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to this rotting pile. All that is doing is creating asset and bond bubbles which help his Wall Street masters reap massive profits, but which also will inevitably collapse causing equally massive harm to the poor and middle class. Even with bailout bernanke’s desperate and potentially harmful actions, the labor force participation rate – the most significant measure of US employment – continues to decline and is now at nearly a 40 YEAR LOW, while “disability” claims and food stamp recipients are at an all time high.

If bailout bernanke and the feckless Fed really wanted to help the US economy (which they don’t – they just want BILLION DOLLAR profits for Big Banks and Wall Street), they would do what the rest of us must do: defeat OBOZO and elect Romney.

TeaPartyNation on July 23, 2012 at 2:44 PM

The vast majority of the poor would vote for the liberal policies that is keeping them poor and totally dependents on the producers money to survive… The reason is that most of the poor are poor by choice and they have decided to not work hard but rather get the producers money in exhange of giving their votes to the liberals who keep enforcing, enacting, and expanding these destructive policies…

mnjg on July 23, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Perfect.

Mitt wins and this “new” recession will totally be his fault. Furthermore there is no way he will get out of it. He is proposing nothing that would do that.

Mitt will be blamed for every thing Obama screwed up on. Of course most likely Mitt will actually make things worse. His record in Mass does not bode well for the Country. If he is anything like he was there we will be in a world of hurt. He passed Cap and Trade do that nationwide and welcome to 12% unemployment.

Steveangell on July 23, 2012 at 2:55 PM

The vast majority of the poor would vote for the liberal policies that is keeping them poor and totally dependents on the producers money to survive… The reason is that most of the poor are poor by choice and they have decided to not work hard but rather get the producers money in exhange of giving their votes to the liberals who keep enforcing, enacting, and expanding these destructive policies…

mnjg on July 23, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Boy you must live one sheltered life.

What a SNOB.

You obviously have not a single clue.

They get ahead the best they can. Unfortunately for many Crime is the only thing they see that will work to do that. The fault is the schools and “Civil Right Leaders” combining to keep them in poverty.

Steveangell on July 23, 2012 at 3:04 PM

There is no good news for Obama…none.

right2bright on July 23, 2012 at 12:06 PM

I have to disagree…there were millions of clueless idiots that voted for him in ’08, and unfortunately, most of them are still with us.

cajunpatriot on July 23, 2012 at 3:14 PM

From Yahoo Finance: Global economy in worst shape in 3 years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-economy-worst-shape-since-162939273.html

Philly on July 23, 2012 at 3:16 PM

This, of course, deals with the technical definition of recession. In order to have a true recession in the technical sense, an economy has to suffer negative growth (contraction) for two successive quarters. We have not yet had one quarter of contraction, but the recent indicators show the economy heading in that direction.

The thing about recessions is that they are not really defined “technically” anymore, as much as they are by expediency. During George Bush’s presidency, the media’s anxiousness for a recession became so blatant in the, “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?” sense that Glenn Reynolds maintained a “Dude, Where’s My Recession?” feature on his blog to keep track of all the stories that were out there which were rooting for one to begin.

The opposite is true today. The economy is stalled at best, we are not creating enough jobs keep up with population growth, and yet for the most part, the media simply parrots the administration’s “Four million jobs created!” mantra while ignoring everything else as “unexpected.”

Spurius Ligustinus on July 23, 2012 at 3:17 PM

The economists interviewed by the AP point to low-wage jobs, but that’s not the real problem; it’s a lack of any jobs:

Poverty is closely tied to joblessness. While the unemployment rate improved from 9.6 percent in 2010 to 8.9 percent in 2011, the employment-population ratio remained largely unchanged, meaning many discouraged workers simply stopped looking for work. Food stamp rolls, another indicator of poverty, also grew.

During this three-year recovery, we have not added enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. We add somewhere between 125,000 to 150,000 working-age adults on average each month, but we have only added 65,200 jobs on average each month since June 2009, the start of the recovery. That means that we have gone backwards in terms of population growth by more than 2.2 million jobs that we needed just to keep pace. Thanks to the depressed job market, wages remain low because of the huge numbers of people who seek work, and the huge numbers of people who have given up out of despair.
Until this recovery, the aggregation of solid earnings after a recovery preceded expansion and job growth. In this recovery, the massive amount of regulation — and especially the ambiguities of regulation in ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank — along with tax-policy signals has forced companies to shield earnings and capital rather than invest in expansion. Until those policies change, our economy won’t expand, won’t add new jobs at a rate needed to keep up with a growing population (which should produce growing demand that businesses would love to be able to meet), and poverty will increase rather than decrease.
Are we heading into another recession? For more and more Americans, the last one never ended.

Over 10 Million jobs are missing from the Obama economy. Yes, over 10 Million.

Civilian noninstitutional population age 16 years and over, June 2012: 243,155,000

If we currently had the same Employment-population ration that was the average over all 96 months of the George W. Bush Presidency (62.7%), with our current population there would be 152,458,000 people employed.

62.7% * 243,155,000 = 152,458,000

How many people actually were employed in June 2012? 142,415,000

How many jobs are missing from the Obama economy?

152,458,000
-
142,415,000
===========
_10,043,000 jobs

Over 10 Million jobs!!!

The last time that Republicans controlled the House, Senate, and Presidency, in 2006, there were 144,427,000 people employed.

Now, after over five and a half years of majority Democrat control, there are TWO MILLION LESS people employed (142,415,000) even as the Civilian noninstitutional population age 16 years and over has grown by 14.34 million people, from 228,815,000 to 243,155,000.

The employable population has grown by over 14 million, and not only do we not have more people employed now than in 2006, we have TWO MILLION FEWER PEOPLE EMPLOYED now than in 2006.

And again, if we had the average George W. Bush era Employment-population ratio right now, over 10 MILLION MORE PEOPLE WOULD BE EMPLOYED!

ITguy on July 23, 2012 at 3:34 PM

“The private sector is doing just fine!”

Rockshine on July 23, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Another recession coming?

Yes

Another recession?

Let’s be honest….it is a depression, and damn depressing that more folks are afraid to admit it.

coldwarrior on July 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Yep, although it is running differently from the last one.

Our currency was based on gold and silver. They couldnt just print money. However, at one point, Roosevelt bought so much gold that the dollars he used for purchasing left the country and were not returned to purchase American products, causing – a currency shortage while we sat on huge metal stores

Prices contracted not just for that reason but the usual reason of no jobs due to stalled world markets. A sandwich was a nickle but no one had a nickle

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, always a good read, writes comparing Spain to Germany, 1938

People forget the market crashed in 1929 and recovered the next year, but it was the way banks dried up and bubbles collapsed that stopped the money chain. It took 10 years to 1938

Today the world was heading that way anyway, but Obama’s handlers did their best to magnify the problem by spending out the Treasury, maxing out debt on worthless crap, and destabilizing world events

IMHO intentionally to accelerate events to stage the next election

They helped stage the Depression on time, but did not win the masses as planned

entagor on July 23, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Barry EconBomics……. Bring all Americans to a Poverty Level of the poorest of the poor… All that is but the elite rulers… who know what is best…. Share the Misery Comrade….SHARE DA MISERY

roflmao

donabernathy on July 23, 2012 at 8:00 PM

What do you mean another?

Dante on July 23, 2012 at 8:11 PM

…Of course most likely Mitt will actually make things worse. His record in Mass does not bode well for the Country. If he is anything like he was there we will be in a world of hurt. He passed Cap and Trade do that nationwide and welcome to 12% unemployment.
Steveangell on July 23, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Do some actual homework on Mitt first plz, then get back to us. Mitt isn’t pro-cap and trade! In fact, Mitt vetoed Obama’s kind of cap and trade. The law he signed, and yes I know he called it “cap and trade”, was different from anything the Democrats have floated. Mitt’s record is pro-business and pro-energy independence. You’re crazy if you think Mitt will be like Obama.

txhsmom on July 23, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Right now I would vote for the Hamburglar to be President. Even he would do a better job.

Marcus Traianus on July 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

If I had a magic wand, I’d make Ronald McDonald the Prez, his crew in various high-ranking positions, then sit back and watch the show…and the recovery.

MelonCollie on July 23, 2012 at 11:49 PM