Is the election already over?

posted at 5:01 pm on July 22, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

Could it be true? Is all of this endless campaigning, a billion dollars in advertising and 24/7 blanket coverage of every word, gesture and sneeze by the candidates all a gigantic waste of time in an election which has essentially already been decided? That’s one possibility suggested by Dave Helling of McClatchy Newspapers who suggests that, “People’s minds are made up, unlikely to change.”

[A] growing number of political scientists and campaign consultants – backed by the latest polling data – think the daily campaign back-and-forth is having no significant effect on voters.

Most Americans have locked in their presidential decisions, polls released Thursday suggested, and the already small number of persuadable voters shrinks by the hour. Put another way: America could vote for president next week, and the outcome would probably be the same as it will be in November.

“That’s accurate, barring some really big, big event or change in the political environment,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, who has studied presidential voting patterns.

OK… so if the election is over, tell us who won so we can all get back to the important business of getting ready for the NFL pre-season games. Sadly, the analysis breaks down at that point, saying only that a rolling index of poll averages shows that the numbers are so tight that they’re within the margin of error. (And if you’ll pardon my saying, I think we already knew it was going to be close.)

Not for nothing, but telling us that the election is over but it’s going to come down to a handful of voters is pretty much akin to saying that the gun pointed at you is really close to being on target, so the bullet may or may not hit you. I think you’d want to have that information at hand in advance so you could still duck.

The author also goes on to point out that all of this depends on things staying pretty much as they are. A “big mistake” or a critical change in either domestic or foreign circumstances could still tilt the scale. I found that admission to be a rather blunt blow to the premise of the entire article.

But there is still a valid and interesting phenomenon being described in this study which is worth mulling over. Are Americans making up their minds much earlier than they did as little as fifteen years ago, and if so, why? It’s possible, at least for a percentage of the available voting pie. One reason cited by Helling is that campaigns and their well funded surrogates have the money to begin running saturation advertising much earlier in the cycle than in the old days, when candidates would jealously hoard much of their war chest for the critical final weeks and then launch an all out ad blitz.

If the voters are already living in a deeply divided nation (politically speaking) and begin seeing reinforcing messages on a daily basis as much as a year in advance, I’m guessing it can have an effect. If you’re already leaning one way or the other, the constant flood of “information” can serve to bolster those feelings. If you’re already leaning in Romney’s direction, all those ads from Obama about Mitt’s “shady” overseas dealings, investments and outsourcing will probably roll off your back as little more than poorly spun side effects of a successful, competent business career. If you’re pretty well leaning toward Obama, ads talking about massive spending, debt and unemployment will probably be interpreted as “just the way things are now” after the GOP broke the system before Obama took office and the way they “won’t work with him” to fix anything.

It’s easy to see how the “undecided vote” could be pared down to a far slimmer margin much earlier than it used to. And those unfortunate enough to live in the roughly ten or so swing states have doubtless grown accustomed to the constant presence of the candidates on their TV screens and in their public squares as little more than a bothersome fact of life.

Sure, the election may be over for a vast majority of Americans… possibly as much as 90 to 95 percent. But it’s that last little bit who will decide which side of the razor this election lands on. And with that in mind, the two sides are going to be fighting all the harder from now until election day morning.


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I say yes and it is all about who gets the most voters to turn out.

Rio Linda Refugee on July 22, 2012 at 5:04 PM

If so mental illness is alive and well in the 45 % or so that are for Obama. They’re nuts.

CW on July 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

My mind is definitely made up. Ron Paul 2012!!

air_up_there on July 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

My mind is definitely made up. Ron Paul 2012!!

air_up_there on July 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

*SNORT*

Rio Linda Refugee on July 22, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Our home has already made up our minds on voting here in TX for those running and for president.
I do not listen to tv ads or click on ads on anyone, OUR minds are made UP!

WE want conservatives or at least those who MIGHT keep our Republic as it should be in dc and it sure the heck isn’t bho or d’s!
L

letget on July 22, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Cousin pookie
, just stay on the couch

cmsinaz on July 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

the only thing undecided is how many dead commie voters obama soetoro will need to “win”.

Mr. Sun on July 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

SMOD/Killer Bees 2012!

annoyinglittletwerp on July 22, 2012 at 5:13 PM

That’s the case here. Romney, tax cheat? Don’t care. Romney, outsourcer? Don’t care. Romney, serial killer? Don’t care. These are desperate times.

msupertas on July 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Obama’s re-election was doomed in Jan. of 2009….

The media can spin for Obama all it want’s. It won’t save him.

We all knew Obama would be the worst President in American history,
and Obama did not let us down.

Take away the left wing media endless spinning for Obama and
look around.

The only ones that believe the Obama lies are either communists,
welfare slobs or Obama crooked crony capitalists.

redguy on July 22, 2012 at 5:14 PM

The only mitt or Obama ads i see are on cnn or fox.

I feel sorry for those considered in the swing states

Hang in there

cmsinaz on July 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Essentially, polls are closed until the October surprise.
1) Student loan/mortgage loan forgiveness
2) Keystone pipeline opened up after it’s determined the blue-eyed, three-legged flea population count now shows normal in Nebraska
3) 2012 Doobie Act
4) New Dem. VP after Slow Joe gets assigned to mentor J Jackson Jr.

hillsoftx on July 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

…if it is…the MSM has to keep it going!…they have hundreds of millions to collect in campaign ads!…it’s the only time they have capitalistic tendencies!

KOOLAID2 on July 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

My mind was made up upon hearing the words “I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

Helen A Handbasquet on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

One executive order suspending elections coming right up!

-B. Soetero

Kataklysmic on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Many have made up their minds, but there are still a lot of voters who have not paid attention thus far. The trend of the economy, the job market and the debates will be very important.

bayview on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I do not listen to tv ads or click on ads on anyone, OUR minds are made UP!

A TV ad has NEVER made me vote in a different direction.

These campaigns only run them because the other campaigns do.

Obama spent more in June then he took in.

Sound familiar?

redguy on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

My mind is made up and judging from my Facebook newsfeed so are a lot of other minds (surprising how many conservative posts are coming from Michigan btw). The rest of the time, I just keep waiting and watching for Obama gaffes like the “You didn’t build it” thing.

HawaiiLwyr on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

…Hang in there Newt…!!!!

KOOLAID2 on July 22, 2012 at 5:17 PM

we saw this in Wisconsin (on what seems to be bi-weekly elections)…but today’s story about poverty levels, continued stagnation in the financial markets, 14% unemployment in AA base, etc. will make this different.

the failure of that “Hope/change” thing is going to swing a lot of voters before November I think…

teejk on July 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

(surprising how many conservative posts are coming from Michigan btw). The rest of the time, I just keep waiting and watching for Obama gaffes like the “You didn’t build it” thing.

HawaiiLwyr on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

…we’re like the Spartan 300…outnumbered but vocal!

KOOLAID2 on July 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

My mind is definitely made up. Ron Paul 2012!!

air_up_there on July 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Is the there up inside your head?

bayview on July 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I actually believe the election was over in 2009. Media refused to notice as well as the Dems

However, whichever party gets the most to the polls wins. I predict Romney wins, we are definitely more enthusiastic this go around the pouters who sat out in 08 will be out in droves.

Redford on July 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

45% automatic re-elect number for President Whistle-all-the-Time.

so he only needs about 5% (and really only about 70 electoral votes, because he prolly has a 200 vote gimme).

very scary.

PappyD61 on July 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I think that people are waiting for the economic shoe to drop in a mighty negative way. They are conserving their resources for the bad times ahead.

Are their minds made up? Probably.

Let’s get back to the business of America already and stop the Obama Show Time.

onlineanalyst on July 22, 2012 at 5:24 PM

I hope this particular race is over, because this was astonishing to see:

Mack is Beating Nelson in Florida?

Hallelujah!!!!!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/fl/florida_senate_mack_vs_nelson-1847.html

mountainaires on July 22, 2012 at 5:25 PM

BTW, we just got a robo call from dewhurst here in TX and I hung up! Spend that money, you will NOT get our vote!
L

letget on July 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

My mind is definitely made up. Ron Paul 2012!! Obama 2012!!

air_up_there on July 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

FIFY

LevinFan on July 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

H*ll No,the election is still OnGoing/NerverEnding
oh wait,I’m thinking of Obama!!!
(sarc).

canopfor on July 22, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Yes, it is over. Obama will lose in a landslide — to the media’s stunned (and comic) horror on election night.

I didn’t say Romney would win. He’s just the man standing in place as the worst and most toxic president in American history meets his electoral doom.

rrpjr on July 22, 2012 at 5:29 PM

I actually believe the election was over in 2009. Media refused to notice as well as the Dems

However, whichever party gets the most to the polls wins. I predict Romney wins, we are definitely more enthusiastic this go around the pouters who sat out in 08 will be out in droves.

Redford on July 22, 2012 at 5:22 PM

I agree. But I think the dems and the media do know and are hiding it while they desperately scramble for a plan B. If there’s a free and fair election without major fraud we’ll landslide this clown. That’s a big “if” though.

Kataklysmic on July 22, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Well, I think it’s possible that most people have their minds made up; and pollsters tell us that “undecideds” usually always break for the challenger. And, hopefully the GOP has their GOTV honed to a razor’s edge. So, hope that’s true, because if Obama wins re-election, I’m hard pressed to believe that we will survive as a democratic republic.

But I think there’s always a card to play when one is an incumbent; a WAR with Iran could be exploited, for example. A terrorist attack could happen. Something dire or drastic might change the outcome. I hold my breath hoping nothing like this will happen, but I am skeptical that Obama would give up without one last gasp of desperation to maintain his grip on power. He’s a tyrant.

mountainaires on July 22, 2012 at 5:32 PM

I still have a ‘PALIN 2012!’ sticker on my truck – I just can’t bring myself to remove it.

Pork-Chop on July 22, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Is the election already over?

True story: I talked to a black female Democrat. She said she’s voting for Romney no matter what.

Yeah this election is over…. For Obama.

BigGator5 on July 22, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Wait until Hussein’s fellow shias jump in to save him !

burrata on July 22, 2012 at 5:36 PM

My mind is definitely made up. Ron Paul 2012!!

air_up_there on July 22, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I’d like to know when you Paulbots are going to acknowledge the reality the situation that there are only two viable candidates?

Is it going to be this summer, Sep, Oct, …….December?

Can you give use all a clue when you’re going to wake up?

Chip on July 22, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I am still convinced that peeps are lying to pollsters for various reasons. I believe there is a bradley affect compounded by the fact that the popular culture has the meme that it is hip to be an Obama fan. No one likes to feel left out of being “hip” or “cool”.

And with the unions showing up at people’s houses to protest, people don’t want that, so they are staying “in the down low” and will vote against this turd in November.

I also believe MI is in serious play to the extent that our dem senator can be beat.

karenhasfreedom on July 22, 2012 at 5:36 PM

I believe this. I think its about who actually shows up. Ads aren’t going to change minds. I think the debates will go a long way but as a country were so polarized that its hard to change a mind from a long held position. I think our system is so screwed up. We all agree our economy is messed up so or choices are the guys who put us here in their 8 years of power or the guy who hasn’t been able to fix it in his four years.

Politricks on July 22, 2012 at 5:36 PM

If this election is truly close, we have already lost. I firmly believe that it is not close–Romney will win by about a 55-45 margin. Just my gut feeling. For the record, my gut said McCain was going to lose all along, even after breathing life into his campaign by picking Palin.

IrishEi on July 22, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Tragically, it’s not over until Trumka’s car trunk is empty.

Mr. Prodigy on July 22, 2012 at 5:37 PM

I have no doubt that liberals wish the election was over today, while the numbers are close enough to give Obama the winning edge from among the dead and illegals.

Liam on July 22, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Have we already voted on the choice between having a bloody revolution or going back to a constitutionally limited representative republic (ie: common sense)?

I don’t think so. Too many people are still too willing to vote themselves more entitlements.

The aliens don’t like this. They will be coming to cleanse the takers……bwahahahahahahaaaaa

Wolfmoon on July 22, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Halo 4 is being released on Election Day. I’m no gamer, but I’ve heard these people are hardcore fans. Which side does this help?

Nikkia2112 on July 22, 2012 at 5:40 PM

My mind was made up when Owebama said “typical white person”.

ImageSniper on July 22, 2012 at 5:43 PM

My mind was made up in 2007, and Obama and his worldview and personality only became more unlikeable as time went on. I worked hard to keep him out of office and I will work hard to make him leave office. Nothing’s changed for 5 years.

YehuditTX on July 22, 2012 at 5:44 PM

THIS election cycle is different in that we are enduring an epic ‘recession’ and we’ve had a president who has been incredibly inept at dealing with it and similarly disconnected during his entire presidency.

Obama, much like Jimmy Carter, is obsessed with his place in the history books and his ‘vision’. Just as in the Carter presidency, we have a visionary ideologue when the nation desperately needs a strong leader.

The last time that I saw the electorate this grimly determined was the Carter/Reagan election. People made up their minds long before the election cycle heated up and when the day came around, they went into the voting booth and elected Ronald Reagan… by a landslide.

thatsafactjack on July 22, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Sure, the election may be over for a vast majority of Americans… possibly as much as 90 to 95 percent. But it’s that last little bit who will decide which side of the razor this election lands on. And with that in mind, the two sides are going to be fighting all the harder from now until election day morning.

I love science.

On a related note, I’d like to point out that possibly 98.20 to 98.30 percent of people will transform into Zombies when the morphogenic compound is released — but this just means that the 1.700 percent of persons still among the Homo Sapiens will have to be extra careful buying groceries. If you are someone interested in hearing more on this subject, please consider buying my next book, Crap I Made Up, available at better booksellers this fall.

Axe on July 22, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Could it be true? Is all of this endless campaigning, a billion dollars in advertising and 24/7 blanket coverage of every word, gesture and sneeze by the candidates all a gigantic waste of time in an election which has essentially already been decided? That’s one possibility suggested by Dave Helling of McClatchy Newspapers who suggests that, “People’s minds are made up, unlikely to change.”

Yeah, pretty much. People basically know what they’re going to do, and there’s a very small margin for that to change. It’s possible for this thing to blow up, but it would require a massive shift one way or the other, be it a new Bain-related scandal for Romney, or a Katrinaesque scandal for Obama.

It all comes down to the electoral map.

As the apportionment stands now, it’s:

Obama: 221 (49 EVs short of victory)
Romney: 181 (89 EVs short of victory)
Unapportioned: 136 EVs

Here are the RCP average differential for the swing states, ranked from most favorable for Obama to most favorable for Romney:

=========================
NH: Obama +5.3 (4 EVs)
NV: Obama +5.2 (6 EVs)
WI: Obama +4.8 (10 EVs)
OH: Obama +4.3 (18 EVs)
CO: Obama +2.9 (9 EVs)
————————-
MI: Obama +1.8 (16 EVs)
————————-
IA: Obama +1.3 (6 EVs)
VA: Obama +1.2 (13 EVs)
FL: Obama +1.1 (29 EVs)
…………………….
NC: Romney +0.4 (15 EVs)
MO: Romney +3.0 (10 EVs)

Michigan is currently the “cutoff” state by the average of what each candidate needs, assuming that all swing states where the candidate performs better than that state goes for them.

As you see though, Obama has an edge there, as well as an edge in almost all swing states except for North Carolina and Missouri, the latter of which I don’t believe to be a swing state at all.

Romney is barely within 2 points of victory in the number of states he would need to win, suggesting that if he’s going to win, it would have to be by hitting 270 squarely on the nose, or by a 269-269 split (with Nebraska’s more liberal district going for Obama), with the House of Representatives deciding matters.

Ultimately, the advantage lies with Obama. It’s his election to lose.

Stoic Patriot on July 22, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Not for nothing, but telling us that the election is over but it’s going to come down to a handful of voters is pretty much akin to saying that the gun pointed at you is really close to being on target, so the bullet may or may not hit you.

I think the author’s/political scientist’s analysis is more like these dopey sports analysts before a game on TV:

“Ya know Chip, the key to the game is to minimize mistakes and avoid turnovers, while also scoring points when in the red zone.”

It’s meaningless. Election day will decide, so get off your can and get down to the school/firehouse/grange hall or where ever it is that you vote on that first Tuesday in November.

ironbill on July 22, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Well duh. Take hotair. Is there a single person here who hasn’t made up their mind? In fact, is there a single person here who didn’t decide their 2012 vote four years ago? Of course people have made up their minds. Those who vote according to ideology, will always vote the same way, and those who vote according to the economy – the independents – will be voting against Obama because the economy isn’t going to change in his favor between now and then.

In fact, the election could have been two years ago, and the results would have been the same. But like the NFL, the two-week long pregame show is all part of the fun. The game may be in the bag, but it is the theater of the anticipation of the big day that people enjoy. It’s like Christmas. You know you ain’t gonna get anything really good. Just a sweater and socks. So it seems silly to wait until Christmas to get it. But watcha gonna do? Life has to run its course.

keep the change on July 22, 2012 at 5:46 PM

letget on July 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Early voting for Cruz tomorrow.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Even if one were to believe that 100% of all voters had already made up there mind, which I don’t believe is true at all, this type of speculation misses what has become an equally important (or more important) point in American politics.

When it comes to voting in a 2-party, highly polarized environment, having the majority of voters prefer your candidate is not enough. You have to actually get them to get off their cynical, jaded rumps and go pull the lever.

Voter suppression is a key part of national elections, and it must be remembered that campaign ads serve two complementary functions: persuasion and ignition. Even if everyone already had their mind’s made up, ads can make an appreciable number of the people voting for your opponent decide instead to stay home because they decide both candidates are bad and the difference isn’t significant enough for them to go to the trouble.

Every opposing voter who stays home is 1/2 of a vote for your guy.

FBones on July 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Guesswork:

Best case for Obama / Worst case for Romney: Obama wins every swing state except for Missouri, meaning Romney improves on McCain’s map only vis-a-vis Indiana

Best case for Romney / Worst case for Obama: Romney wins every swing state except New Hampshire and Nevada.

Stoic Patriot on July 22, 2012 at 5:50 PM

…we’re like the Spartan 300…outnumbered but vocal!

KOOLAID2 on July 22, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I am a former Michigander so I have a lot of family and high school friends on Facebook. I don’t remember this level of conservative postings on there 4 years ago. Color me happily surprised.

HawaiiLwyr on July 22, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Early voting for Cruz tomorrow.

Yes we will be voting for Cruz! On the 31, health issue here with me.
L

letget on July 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Halo 4 is being released on Election Day. I’m no gamer, but I’ve heard these people are hardcore fans. Which side does this help?

Nikkia2112 on July 22, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Republicans. Gamers skew younger, wealthier, and more liberal.

Stoic Patriot on July 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

Here’s the plan; every unemployed able bodied American in a safe red district needs to move to a swing district in a swing state and register as a new resident. The rest of us can give support with transportation, jobs, food, and shelter. It’s that important to end this darkest of periods in our history.

HICON on July 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

My mind was made up when Owebama said “typical white person”.

ImageSniper on July 22, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I never would have voted for Obama in the first place, but my decision to loathe him came in mid-March 2008, when FNC began playing those Jeremiah Wright videoclips. The following Sunday, my local paper ran a column by Walter Williams in which Williams said that Obama was no Jackie Robinson and that blacks would regret Obama’s election for a generation or two.

I’m still incredulous that this douche got elected.

BuckeyeSam on July 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

I am going to talk of controversial things. I make no apology for this.

It’s time we asked ourselves if we still know the freedoms intended for us by the Founding Fathers. James Madison said, “We base all our experiments on the capacity of mankind for self government.”

This idea — that government was beholden to the people, that it had no other source of power — is still the newest, most unique idea in all the long history of man’s relation to man. This is the issue of this election: Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American Revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves…

The Founding Fathers knew a government can’t control the economy without controlling people. And they knew when a government sets out to do that, it must use force and coercion to achieve its purpose. So we have come to a time for choosing…

Have we the courage and the will to face up to the immorality and discrimination of the progressive tax, and demand a return to traditional proportionate taxation? . . . Today in our country the tax collector’s share is 37 cents of every dollar earned. Freedom has never been so fragile, so close to slipping from our grasp.

Are you willing to spend time studying the issues, making yourself aware, and then conveying that information to family and friends? Will you resist the temptation to get a government handout for your community? Realize that the doctor’s fight against socialized medicine is your fight. We can’t socialize the doctors without socializing the patients. Recognize that government invasion of public power is eventually an assault upon your own business. If some among you fear taking a stand because you are afraid of reprisals from customers, clients, or even government, recognize that you are just feeding the crocodile hoping he’ll eat you last…

There can be no security anywhere in the free world if there is no fiscal and economic stability within the United States. Those who ask us to trade our freedom for the soup kitchen of the welfare state are architects of a policy of accommodation.

They say the world has become too complex for simple answers. They are wrong. There are no easy answers, but there are simple answers. We must have the courage to do what we know is morally right. Winston Churchill said that “the destiny of man is not measured by material computation. When great forces are on the move in the world, we learn we are spirits–not animals.” And he said, “There is something going on in time and space, and beyond time and space, which, whether we like it or not, spells duty.”

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children’s children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.

Ronald Reagan

Speakup on July 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

letget on July 22, 2012 at 5:55 PM

I’m voting tomorrow. Husband will be voting this week as well-and the run-off is going to be Spawn’s first vote EVER!

annoyinglittletwerp on July 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

The NFL pre-season kicks off exactly 2 weeks and 2 hours from now. Not that I’m counting the hours or anything …

TouchdownBuddha on July 22, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Wait until Hussein’s fellow shias jump in to save him !

burrata on July 22, 2012 at 5:36 PM

burrata:I hope it all goes all to Shiite!
(sarc).

canopfor on July 22, 2012 at 6:06 PM

NH: Obama +5.3 (4 EVs)

-snip-

Ultimately, the advantage lies with Obama. It’s his election to lose.

Stoic Patriot on July 22, 2012 at 5:45 PM

First of all, you have to take the RCP numbers for NH with a grain of salt, as major polls here have been few and far between. And of course there is also the possibility that some of those “polls” oversampled Democrats. Many of them do.

But the new (last week) New Hampshire poll by WMUR (that’s New Hampshire’s main TV station) showed that O’bama is in trouble here. The last time they polled, he was leading Romney by 9. Now it’s within 1 of being within the margin of error.

BTW in 1980 most of the polls at this time had Jimmy Carter blowing out Reagan. And in 2004, the final Fox News Poll before that election had Bush losing.

Del Dolemonte on July 22, 2012 at 6:07 PM

I think it’s safe to say the campaign cycle is always the same. Ive not met a registered Dem who is voting for Romney. Vice a versa I’m sure. Maybe some indies move back to sanity, maybe not enough in swing states though.

Unless…… Maybe there will be a “Reagan democrat” possibility out there ? ( and don’t start bunching panties out there and start screeching -” blasphemy ! Romney is not Reagan”……..)
Carter’s ineptness – really made it impossible for dems to re-elect him. Maybe it’s 1980 dejavu all over again ?

It’s all about October probably.

FlaMurph on July 22, 2012 at 6:11 PM

It’s all over but the vote fraud….

golfmann on July 22, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Is the election already over?

it is for me.

Tim_CA on July 22, 2012 at 6:12 PM

‘Toon of the Day: Remember When The Left Said “Don’t trust anyone over 30”?

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/07/toon-of-day-remember-when-left-said.html

M2RB: The Beatles

Resist We Much on July 22, 2012 at 6:13 PM

And if you’ll pardon my saying, I think we already knew it was going to be close.

No it won’t.

Tim_CA on July 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children’s children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.

Ronald Reagan

Speakup on July 22, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Then we have McCain and Rubio who don’t even remember Reagan’s 11th commandment, look how they are savaging Bachmann on behalf of Hussein !

burrata on July 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

letget on July 22, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Early voting for Cruz tomorrow.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 22, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Hope Texans come out for Cruz. He was on Mark Levin’s radio program last week and Mark called a Surge for him. Hope he received a lot of money for his campaign!!

bluefox on July 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

The author also goes on to point out that all of this depends on things staying pretty much as they are. A “big mistake” or a critical change in either domestic or foreign circumstances could still tilt the scale. I found that admission to be a rather blunt blow to the premise of the entire article.

Dude he’s calling the fight while his guy’s still on top, by a hair.

By the afternoon of November 6, they’ll be saying he didn’t lose, he just ran out of time. (HT: Bear Bryant)

Dusty on July 22, 2012 at 6:15 PM

I’m still incredulous that this douche got elected.

BuckeyeSam on July 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM

.
Obviously, Cuyahoga county didn’t get the memo.

FlaMurph on July 22, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Mark Levin has this very helpful link up on his website:

https://www.voteright.com/issues-key-votes/

ALL THE RIGHT CANDIDATES. ALL IN ONE PLACE.

For example: The candidates listed in the link below have signed “The Repeal Pledge” and committed themselves to the full repeal of Obamacare:

Candidates Pledged to Repeal Obamacare

VoteRight has compiled a list of all of the Republicans challenging the remaining Democrat members of the House that voted for ObamaCare, linked below:

bluefox on July 22, 2012 at 6:19 PM

No it won’t.

[Tim_CA on July 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM]

Yeah, I’m sticking with Obama garnering only 36%, a new primarily two-contestant record. It’s plausible and heading in that direction, particularly wrt to the voting factors.

This is why I’m telling Obama supporters to not waste their money on campaign donations (plus a I have a big heart and only their best interests in mind.)

Dusty on July 22, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Yeah or the polls could be… you know… wrong?

Valkyriepundit on July 22, 2012 at 6:20 PM

No it won’t.

Tim_CA on July 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

.
Shellacking Part II ?

FlaMurph on July 22, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Shellacking Part II ?

FlaMurph on July 22, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Bet on it.

Tim_CA on July 22, 2012 at 6:23 PM

I’m still incredulous that this douche got elected.

BuckeyeSam on July 22, 2012 at 5:56 PM
Obviously, Cuyahoga county didn’t get the memo.

FlaMurph on July 22, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Cuyahoga County is just one of the Dem strongholds in Ohio. You notice that B.O. when in Ohio, this is where he goes to “campaign.”

We have another issue to be concerned about.

Video: Union Front Group Break Ohio Election Laws to Get Amendment on Ballot

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/19/Video-Union-front-group-breaking-Ohio-election-laws-to-get-their-amendment-on-ballot

bluefox on July 22, 2012 at 6:28 PM

BTW in 1980 most of the polls at this time had Jimmy Carter blowing out Reagan. And in 2004, the final Fox News Poll before that election had Bush losing.

Del Dolemonte on July 22, 2012 at 6:07 PM

..as Ed points out on an almost daily basis, most of the polls now are totally unrealistic Dem turnout models (D+6..7..9..12!) and the Fox polls always seem to show Romney trailing The Pantload or otherwise pessimistic for conservative positions. It almost makes one think THEY are rigging their polls to keep the viewership glued to the tube.

As Jazz suggests, there may not be too many undecideds out their. More and more, I get the same feeling I got in 1980 — the seething undercurrent of enmity for an incompetent POTUS and a reluctance to share that anger with pollsters. We kept hearing the MSM extoll the evenness of the 1980 race and had this big, unconnected WTF? We could not wait for the polls to open in November.

Same now — a papering over of THE MOST INCOMPETENT REGIME in American history — but add in The Bradley Effect and I believe there will be an epic blow-out.

The War Planner on July 22, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Helen A Handbasquet on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

The first time I heard him say UH.I haven’t listened to him since.Matter of fact I haven’t looked at him much either.

docflash on July 22, 2012 at 6:33 PM

The only mitt or Obama ads i see are on cnn or fox.

I feel sorry for those considered in the swing states

Hang in there

cmsinaz on July 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Here in NY too, very few commercials either way. Surprise! It would be nothing short of a miracle if it weren’t a landslide for obummer here in NY.
Went to the grocery store today and a big black guy strutted in with a large obummer t-shirt on. I reacted off the cuff with a disgusted noise (didn’t mean to, it slipped)….my daughter immediately told me that I am going to get beat up someday.

redlucy on July 22, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Michigan is currently the “cutoff” state by the average of what each candidate needs, assuming that all swing states where the candidate performs better than that state goes for them.

As you see though, Obama has an edge there, as well as an edge in almost all swing states except for North Carolina and Missouri, the latter of which I don’t believe to be a swing state at all.

Romney is barely within 2 points of victory in the number of states he would need to win, suggesting that if he’s going to win, it would have to be by hitting 270 squarely on the nose, or by a 269-269 split (with Nebraska’s more liberal district going for Obama), with the House of Representatives deciding matters.

Ultimately, the advantage lies with Obama. It’s his election to lose.

There are some problems with your analysis.

The RCP average includes ALL polls. A fair number of the included polls have been, frankly, garbage, with no LV screen and laughably large Democratic tilted samples. In repeated polls with at least a RV screen applied, and without D tilts that are even larger than seen in the banner D year of 2008, Romney looks better. Unfortunately, most of the more reasonable polls haven’t been done on the state level, and even those that are have been mixed in with the mush for the RCP average.

Secondly, even the sillier polls show Obama short of 50%, and often with a job favorability rating of less than that as well. Are there really any voters who truly don’t have their minds made up on whether or not to vote for the most overexposed individual in history? All they are waiting for is Romney to make the sale to them. The two weeks after the R convention will be the critical ones, and I bet you start seeing a lot of movement in Mitt’s direction once he gets his turn to tell his own story.

FuzzyLogic on July 22, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Speaking of campaigning……………

Obama Campaign now says it will keep its campaign ads off the air in Colorado for the rest of the week – @markknoller

canopfor on July 22, 2012 at 6:37 PM

The only mitt or Obama ads i see are on cnn or fox.

I feel sorry for those considered in the swing states

Hang in there

cmsinaz on July 22, 2012 at 5:15 PM

We’re starting to get Obama ads on local channels here, Portland/Vancouver WA, their internals must be telling them something.

Rio Linda Refugee on July 22, 2012 at 6:37 PM

With the quality of Obamatuerisms we are seeing, I don’t think he is going to make it. Romney needs to expose each one in some way.

Will WashTime, NY Daily, Daily Mail pick up Ed’s column? Hope he is mailing it to them!!

KenInIL on July 22, 2012 at 6:38 PM

I don’t know any undecideds. They all know who they are voting for, and thankfully, it’s good news for Mitt. And most of these folks voted for Obama last time. They are Catholics, and now they see the light.

They won’t get fooled again, Zero.

Philly on July 22, 2012 at 6:42 PM

barring some really big, big event or change in the political environment,

This is called wish casting. A 1 degree turn isn’t a big turn, but 180 of them will reverse your direction.

SWalker on July 22, 2012 at 6:42 PM

The RCP average includes ALL polls. A fair number of the included polls have been, frankly, garbage, with no LV screen and laughably large Democratic tilted samples.

FuzzyLogic on July 22, 2012 at 6:35 PM

..also tell the guy (Jazz?) that RCP is an average of polls; a quick and dirty index and hardly valid as it’s not weighted. The math sucks for two main reasons. Firstly, if you have two polls, one 1,500 likely voters, and it polls (as an example), Romney 50-45 and there was one of 100 voters (Obama Chicago campaign HQ) that polled 60-40, then the average would be 55-43 Obama.

Secondly, it does not take into the account what questions were asked in determining favorability; apples and oranges.

..and those are just two of the major flaws.

The War Planner on July 22, 2012 at 6:45 PM


And if you’ll pardon my saying, I think we already knew it was going to be close.

No it won’t.

Tim_CA on July 22, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I’m with you, Tim! 1980 again, and aloha BHO! As in good bye!

tomshup on July 22, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Speaking of campaigning……………

Obama Campaign now says it will keep its campaign ads off the air in Colorado for the rest of the week – @markknoller

canopfor on July 22, 2012 at 6:37 PM

..like McLame suspended his campaign during the financial meltdown? We weren;t born 20 minutes ago.

He’s still flying out there and continuing on to SF and a three or four-day campaign swing. Why? Because THAT is on our nickel. Suspending the campaign ads gets tout the pity vote and slows the burn rate on his campaign funds.

The War Planner on July 22, 2012 at 6:49 PM

This is called wish casting. A 1 degree turn isn’t a big turn, but 180 of them will reverse your direction.

SWalker on July 22, 2012 at 6:42 PM

..and 100 degrees is a heat wave and 212 degrees boils water and 451 degrees burns paper.

:-D

(Sorry, just felt like being silly.)

The War Planner on July 22, 2012 at 6:51 PM

at this point the best thing to do is look at the rasmussen state by state numbers.

obama is not a popular president…which unfortunately is not the same as being beat in Nov.

His job is to make this a choice between bad and worse..’kill romney’. he and his leftist press is trying to parley a choice between bad and worse into a victory mandate for the continuing of the glorious people’s transformation

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012

mouse over the leaning blue states on the map (IA for example). Obama has 46 percent. In VA he has 47 percent. Like i say, not popular.

So suppressing votes for Romney is about all he has left…and with the help of the press he could win. For example some totally fabricate lie about romney from abc.cbs.nbs.wapo.nyt about 10/30 which can be broadcast widely, and not provide the time to defend.

yup, that sounds good if you’re barry/axe

the sad thing is that the left has worked assiduously since reagan to take many states on the table for Rs. The left wants to be the only legitimate party in the US…just like Chicago and other major cities.

Machines don’t like competition

r keller on July 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

The election is over means that Obama is sinking. So what to do, say the election is over, discourage people, limit the vote. After all, when the GOP convention ends additional funds become legally available, plus there’s the bounce, one which Obama won’t get.
Sure, the elections over. They’re in panic.

arand on July 22, 2012 at 6:57 PM

OT: Wiggins became first Brit to win Le Tour. Team mate Froome 2nd in the GC. Frogs simmer; millions contemplate mass suicide.

“The Sky team was formed at the start of the 2010 season and the intention was clear from the very beginning: to have a British winner of the Tour de France within five years. It’s taken just three. Bradley Wiggins had achieved all there is to do as a track rider and he escaped what he called his “comfort zone” and set himself a new challenge after successfully defending his Olympic title in the individual pursuit in 2008. With three gold medals from the Olympics in his trophy cabinet – one each from the solo 4,000m effort (which is no longer on the program for the Games), and one from..”

..this is added salt in the wounds. The Frogs have not won the thing in years and now, to have a velodrome rider take their tour reeks of the English “farting in their general direction”!

The War Planner on July 22, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Obama will just get dirtier. He doesn’t like to win a straight up fight. He likes to eliminate by lies, innuendo, and intimidation.

He is finding, though, that with Romney, such pathetic, Chicago Mafia tactics doesn’t work.

TexasDude on July 22, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Jackass is in Colorado talking to victims’ families and about to address the nation. Think he will work in a couple of fundraisers?

slickwillie2001 on July 22, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Politricks on July 22, 2012 at 5:36 PM

The screwed up economy is the results of nearly 100 years of big government beliefs by both parties. That said, for most of that time the GOP was a minority party when it came to who occupied the Congress. Congress controls the purse strings and they didn’t control spending. The GOP when they finally broke through did a little and then turned into big spenders during Bush II’s reign. As bad as that was Obama and the dems became giga-spenders during the last 3+ years.

chemman on July 22, 2012 at 7:03 PM

One executive order suspending elections coming right up!

-B. Soetero

Kataklysmic on July 22, 2012 at 5:16 PM

This…

Seven Percent Solution on July 22, 2012 at 7:06 PM

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