Romney, Obama tied in Virginia

posted at 2:01 pm on July 19, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are in a dead heat among Virginia’s voters, with each of them receiving 44 percent of the population’s favor. The pollsters note that this does, however, constitute a shift in Mitt Romney’s general direction over the past few months, and Virginians are starting to trust Romney more on economic issues:

Republican challenger Mitt Romney wipes out President Barack Obama’s lead in Virginia and the two candidates are deadlocked 44 – 44 percent in the race for the Old Dominion’s 13 electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 42 percent lead for President Obama in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 47 – 42 percent Obama lead June 7.

By a narrow 47 – 44 percent, voters say Romney would do a better job on the economy. But voters support 59 – 36 percent Obama’s call to raise income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year. Support is strong among all income groups – except voters in households making more than $250,000 per year, where 48 percent support the idea and 51 percent oppose it.

I’m usually pretty darn proud of my home state of Virginia — at least relative to other states, the Old Dominion just seems to have its head screwed on correctly. With a moderately conservative governor leading my ecologically beautiful, historically rich state to multiple budget surpluses, a well-ranked business and regulatory environment, and very doable concealed-carry laws, Virginia has very rarely given me cause for dismay. The notable exception was in 2008, when my traditionally red state was swept up in the thrill of Hopenchange and went blue, giving Barack Obama its 13 electoral votes.

Having lived most of my life divided between the DC suburbs and Charlottesville — two of Virginia’s liberal epicenters among the conservative heartland — it’s been easy to note the palpably permeating feeling of ‘I’m-a-sophisticated-moderate,’ coastal semi-elitism among the populace contributing to the commonwealth’s newfound presidential purplishness.

So, now I’m left wondering: with Virginia’s shifting demographics, was 2008 the herald of a trend toward a bluer state; or will Virginia’s long history of level-headedness prevail now that Obama actually has a record behind him instead of just airy-fairy slogans? There are any number of factors to consider — the large Latino population, the high concentrations of young professionals, etcetera — but I think you can guess the outcome for which I’m rooting. I don’t want to have to move just yet.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

“Texas will soon be a swing state” — Obama yesterday

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

McDonnell would make a pretty good VP, if not West or Scott Walker

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Be still my beating heart.

El_Terrible on July 19, 2012 at 2:02 PM

And, as per PPP:

Obama lead in New Mexico declining

aquaviva on July 19, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Afraid you’ll have to move from Virginia?

Yeah, I live in New York. It could be far worse…

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Still waiting for New Jersey. May stick this time.

Marcus on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Looks like that offense of Romney’s has been really successful.
 
inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 12:25 PM

rogerb on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

An 8 point drop.
Ouch.

NeoKong on July 19, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Yes, Virginia, there is a man-god.

[This message was approved by me.]

- Barack Obamuh

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:05 PM

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Virginia went stupid in 2008, Cupcake.

Marcus on July 19, 2012 at 2:05 PM

now that Obama actually has a record behind him instead of just airy-fairy slogans?

Excellent Erika!!!

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Sorry, s/b in quotes

now that Obama actually has a record behind him instead of just airy-fairy slogans?

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:06 PM

I find it fascinating how the current trend in demographics, ie more Hispanic illegals, seem to instantly translate into a advantage for Democrats. I was under the impression that non citizens could not vote.

pat on July 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Indeed, you clearly know as much about polling as you do about campaign finance. I assume you weren’t listening when others have told you about how undecideds tend to break in polling as it is difficult to hear while inthemiddle of those buttcheeks. What this poll shows is that Obama is tied, at best, in Virginia.

Although I share your optimism that the state will indeed return to being “ruby red.”

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy)
 
inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

 
So you’ve never been to the South?

rogerb on July 19, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Although I share your optimism that the state will indeed return to being “ruby red.”

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Keep dreaming, sweetheart.

Thank GOD for NOVA!!!

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM

rogerb on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

If HotAir were like the Olympics, Ed would give you and Del both gold medals for catching those priceless troll quotes! Keep it up — it makes my day!

jwolf on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM

I find it fascinating how the current trend in demographics, ie more Hispanic illegals, seem to instantly translate into a advantage for Democrats. I was under the impression that non citizens could not vote.

pat on July 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Indeed. Makes one wonder if the “October surprise” will be a plague, or a sudden increase in pet ownership, considering the demographics that most tend to break Democrat.

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:10 PM

I was under the impression that non citizens could not vote.

pat on July 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

If the dead can vote then why can’t non-citizens? /

sharrukin on July 19, 2012 at 2:10 PM

If HotAir were like the Olympics, Ed would give you and Del both gold medals for catching those priceless troll quotes! Keep it up — it makes my day!

jwolf on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Indeed, and thank you to both!

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:10 PM

Will you people quit throwing bits of bread to the monkey?

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

the large Latino population, the high concentrations of young professionals, etcetera

Latinos, wake up. Link doesn’t make it through, thus, for now, just this

More than 1.5 million older Americans already have lost their homes, with millions more at risk as the national housing crisis takes its toll on those who are among the worst positioned to weather the storm, a new AARP report says.

Older African-Americans and Hispanics are the hardest hit.

“The Great Recession has been brutal for many older Americans,” said Debra Whitman, AARP’s policy chief. “This shows that home ownership doesn’t guarantee financial security later in life.”

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:12 PM

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM

So first you claim Virginia is “ruby red” and now imply that it will never be?

Ah, the logical inconsistencies that define the leftist brain… Are we at war with Eastasia or Eurasia, I tend to forget.

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

An incumbent Pres carrying 44% approval in a state he won in 08′ by 6%…time to order yourself a new chicken, that one has been choked out..

hillsoftx on July 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Will you people quit throwing bits of bread to the monkey?

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

He might bite the hand which feeds him – see his “you didn’t do it” remark.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

If HotAir were like the Olympics, Ed would give you and Del both gold medals for catching those priceless troll quotes! Keep it up — it makes my day!

jwolf on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM
Indeed, and thank you to both!

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:10 PM

…ditto that… from all of us!

KOOLAID2 on July 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

What an utter fool you are. Stats and reality are foreign to you.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Having lived most of my life divided between the DC suburbs and Charlottesville

Go ‘Hoos!!!!

/a fellow UVA grad

ted c on July 19, 2012 at 2:14 PM

‘I’m-a-sophisticated-moderate,’ coastal semi-elitism

I would like a blog post solely on this. College aged and mid twenties people love to pull this shtick. My hypothesis is they don’t want to be viewed as “uncool” by their liberal peers. It sure drives me crazy though.

Donald Draper on July 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:13 PM

I’ve removed MSNBC from my cable channels, so I wouldn’t have to see their Commie filth, even if I’m just channel-surfing.

I feel the same way about the Commie filth on HotAir.

I want to vomit, at the thought that they even exist in our country.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

The race is tied according to Gallup.
Romney’s up by one according to Rasmussen and CBS/NYT.

steebo77 on July 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Virginia went Very Very Red in 2009 and 2010. Threw out two of the Democrats’ prize House members, and would have thrown out Gerry Connolly in Fairfax if the GOP had nominated a mainstream conservative. The only Democrats who win there are moderates who are pro-business and pro-Second Amendment.

Obama fooled a lot of people into thinking he was a moderate in 2008. Won’t happen again.

rockmom on July 19, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Will you people quit throwing bits of bread to the monkey?

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

What do you mean by “you people?”

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Heart of the Confederacy? What is this, 1863?

Go RBNY on July 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I want to vomit, at the thought that they even exist in our country.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

You go right ahead, puke all over them!

Speaking of…

George Bush, Queen Elizabeth, and Vladimir Putin all 3 die and go to hell.

While walking around and exploring the premises, they spy a red phone and ask what the phone is for.

The devil tells them that it is for calling back to Earth.

Putin asks to call Russia and talks for 5 minutes. When he has finished the devil informs him that the cost is 1 million dollars, so Putin writes him a check.

Next Queen Elizabeth calls England and talks for 30 minutes. When she hangs up the devil informs her that the cost is 6 million dollars, so she writes him a check.

Finally George Bush gets his turn and talks for 4 hours. When he finishes the devil informs him that the cost is $5.00.

When Putin hears this he goes ballistic and asks the devil why Bush gets to call the USA so cheaply.

The devil smiles and says, “Since Obama took over, the country has gone to hell, so it’s a local call.”

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Now, if only he’d pick McDonnell as VP and close the deal here.

Doomberg on July 19, 2012 at 2:18 PM

What do you mean by “you people?”

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Thanks for the laugh – the knee-jerk parasites.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Oh, and BTW, inthemiddle, Obama has been carpetbombing the DC market with his false attack ads against Romney. Yet his lead has DROPPED to nothing! And Romney isn’t even on the air there yet!

rockmom on July 19, 2012 at 2:19 PM

@ Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Obama was probably referring to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reFX3_ij5h0

Czar of Defenestration on July 19, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Maybe team Romney needs to get with these folks. What would ~~~ 800,000 votes do to turn VA red? And…. it would be interesting to see what their reaction is to BO’s Roanoke comments:

How many small businesses are there in Virginia? If you are marketing to small businesses or starting a new business in Virginia, this would be useful information, wouldn’t it? Fortunately, we’ve tracked it down for you.

Virginia has 567,830 small businesses, according to the most current federal data available.
(article continues below)

Of those 567,830 small businesses in Virginia, 169,053 have employees. The remaining 398,777 are Virginia small businesses that have no employees.

These small business statistics for Virginia do not include all self-employed individuals working in Virginia. According to the latest Federal data, the number of self-employed persons in Virginia (including incorporated companies that file via Schedule C) was 356,627.

http://www.gaebler.com/Number-of-Small-Businesss-in-Virginia.htm

Cody1991 on July 19, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Obama fooled a lot of people into thinking he was a moderate in 2008. Won’t happen again.

rockmom on July 19, 2012 at 2:16 PM

He also fooled them into thinking he was competent.

Go RBNY on July 19, 2012 at 2:19 PM

jwolf on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Plus, steebo77 and Flora Duh are great with stats and links, respectively, and Resist We Much is a dynamite batallion in and of herself.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

But voters support 59 – 36 percent Obama’s call to raise income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year. Support is strong among all income groups – except voters in households making more than $250,000 per year, where 48 percent support the idea and 51 percent oppose it.

If this becomes a trend nationally, I have a feeling I know how this movie will end…… not well. I fear House Republicans will see polls like this and give Obama what he wants on taxes.

Bitter Clinger on July 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

I like the way u write, Erika, and look forward to what you have to say. Keep up the good work.

gracie on July 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM

That joke would be hilarious, if it wasn’t so true.

:O(

Re: You go right ahead, puke all over them!

I have far too much respect for my vomit.

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Obama fooled a lot of people into thinking he was a moderate in 2008. Won’t happen again.

rockmom on July 19, 2012 at 2:16 PM

He also fooled them into thinking he was competent.

Go RBNY on July 19, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Hoodini™ and be RobbingHood™ twice.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Duh, on me

Hoodini™ can’t be RobbingHood™ twice.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Will you people quit throwing bits of bread to the monkey?

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

…while it’s busy picking fleas from it’s extremities… some are being compassionate seeing that it has no time to eat!

KOOLAID2 on July 19, 2012 at 2:24 PM

OhEssYouCowboys on July 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Indeed, on the ‘joke’.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:20 PM

You and Flora are masters. (:

SparkPlug on July 19, 2012 at 2:25 PM

I’m proud to live in northern Virginia, and was shaken to my core, my core I tell you, that we went blue last election. It WILL NOT happen this election.

I have been manning the phone at my local GOP office (and all the people I talk to are FIRED-UP about voting this election – we only call registered republicans BTW). The excitement, or maybe the fear of another four years of “Bush left me a baaaaad economy” has gotten people engaged in this election like never before.

Virginia will go red once again. People were caught up in the Hopenchange, but now that they see what they bought with their vote, massive buyers remorse has set in.

DuctTapeMyBrain on July 19, 2012 at 2:26 PM

He also fooled them into thinking he was competent.

Go RBNY on July 19, 2012 at 2:19 PM

and heterosexual. don’t forget that.

GhoulAid on July 19, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Sitting here in my offie in the NW Corner of the Magnolia State (look it up, dimwit) I vehemently disagree with you, Skippy.

kingsjester on July 19, 2012 at 2:27 PM

You didn’t build that

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Obama is losing the traditional blue collar industrial base of the Democratic Party. In my looking at the numbers in nearly every poll, I am seeing a shift in Democrats to Romney.

crosspatch on July 19, 2012 at 2:28 PM

“Texas will soon be a swing state” — Obama yesterday

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Not until the forecast is for a hard freeze in hell.

MessesWithTexas on July 19, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

1. That poll’s 2 days old.

2. Its margin of error is 3.

3. Fox News’ final poll in 2004 had Bush losing.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 2:31 PM

I think Bob McDonnell’s victory should pave the clearest path toward what will happen in November. He beat the stuffin’ out of Creigh Deeds–a guy who, despite being a respected Democrat, embraced Obama.

ted c on July 19, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Well this is definitive, since we have a popular vote election in the US. Oh, wait…

inthemiddle on May 7, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Election night worst-case scenario:

Romney +4 in Virginia
Romney +6 in North Carolina

SouthernGent on July 19, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Pwned.

GOPRanknFile on July 19, 2012 at 2:34 PM

REGISTERED VOTERS….
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 28% 500
Democrat 28 439
Independent 37 630
Other/DK/NA 7 104

PHONE DISTRIBUTION
Cell only 16% 140
Land Line only 9 172
Both, cmp from cell sample 9 135
Both, cmp from land sample 66 1226

RACE
White 73% 1381
Black 17 165
Hispanic 3 38
Other/DK/NA 8 89

crosstabs.

BTW, Allen is polling ahead of Kaine 46-44.

fiatboomer on July 19, 2012 at 2:36 PM

I find it disturbing that the Democrats (Warren, DWS, Obama) have become so far left, so radical, and so out of touch, and Marxist to the core, that they make our MOST moderate Republicans like Scott Brown, and Mitt Romney seem like Reagan/Goldwater 2.0

WTF is wrong with these people? The current DNC is not the party of Clinton and JFK. They’re the continuation of USSR

1984 in real life on July 19, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Obama is going to be difficult to beat, because that lying, criminal, thieving, communist, anti-American bastard is just so darned likable. I just want to hug him and squeeze him and call him George.

The Rogue Tomato on July 19, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy)

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Your Historical Idiocy knows no bounds.

The Capitol of the CSA was originally in Montgomery Alabama, and that is where its permanent government was formed. And Virginia was not an original member of the CSA. And the “Virginia Branch” of the CSA always had an uneasy relationship with the true Southern CSA.

F-

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 2:37 PM

If it’s at 44%, Romney will win the state easily. Pollsters like Quinnipiac almost always oversample Democrats, and undecided voters overwhelmingly break for the challenger.

Virginia has unquestionably become a bit more purple, but the nonsense that the demographics have forever made it “South Maryland” is absurd.

If it were truly now a deep blue state, McDonnell would not have won by nearly 20 points in 2009 and the Republicans in charge of the legislature. Deep blue states don’t hand Republicans those sort of majorities.

I see Romney taking the state by at least 3 points.

BradTank on July 19, 2012 at 2:37 PM

The demographics of this poll are 28%D/28%R/37%I; they polled REGISTERED voters, not likely voters.

The responses from the Independent voters will tell the tale – and things are not looking good for Obama at all….

TeresainFortWorth on July 19, 2012 at 2:37 PM

TIED (when xxxxxx OVER-polling democrats, of course) – LOL!

Pork-Chop on July 19, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Well butter my butt and call me biscuit!

Of course we all know if the boy king were down by 4 in that poll you’d be calling it “Faux News” and reminding us all how they “lie” wouldn’t you sweet pea?

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Now, if only he’d pick McDonnell as VP and close the deal here.

Doomberg on July 19, 2012 at 2:18 PM

I like McDonnell a lot. But after his GOP legislature (by whatever name it goes in VA) introduced that creepy, invasive ultrasound bill before dropping it, I think McDonnell carries too much baggage for 2012. I live in SW Ohio, and in 2008, I received three mailers a week for six weeks from the Ohio DNC screaming that McCain and Palin would force women into back alleys for abortion. For this election, we don’t need any reasons to run away independents.

BuckeyeSam on July 19, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Afraid you’ll have to move from Virginia?

Yeah, I live in New York. It could be far worse…

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

ditto from across the hudson.

Lost in Jersey on July 19, 2012 at 2:38 PM

I received three mailers a week for six weeks from the Ohio DNC screaming that McCain and Palin would force women into back alleys for abortion. For this election, we don’t need any reasons to run away independents.

BuckeyeSam on July 19, 2012 at 2:38 PM

They’re going to do that to Romney no matter how many times he said he loved him some abortion during the 1994 campaign.

fiatboomer on July 19, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Poor ‘in the middle’ is in the middle of a leftist rant

faraway on July 19, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy)

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I heard there was a war or something. And the Yankees won! The place is crawling with carpetbaggers now.

faraway on July 19, 2012 at 2:44 PM

They’re going to do that to Romney no matter how many times he said he loved him some abortion during the 1994 campaign.

fiatboomer on July 19, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I disagree. Although abortion is beyond the pale, that VA bill was as well. Until that happened, I thought he’d be the perfect VP. Not now.

BuckeyeSam on July 19, 2012 at 2:46 PM

D/R/I+other raw data = 26/30/44

weighted DRI = 28/28/44

dont worry erika…..

t8stlikchkn on July 19, 2012 at 2:46 PM

I don’t see any undecideds going with a guy that can’t get below 8% unemployment when the last President they called an IDIOT averaged 5% plus high gas and food prices.

Undecideds are reasonable enough to give someone else a shot if the starting pitcher is doing horrible.

Wagthatdog on July 19, 2012 at 2:49 PM

An 8 point drop.
Ouch.

NeoKong on July 19, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Yeah, after pissing away 100 million dollars on negative campaign ads.

eyedoc on July 19, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Meh.

Virginia is a must-win state for Romney. There is now way he realistically gets to 270 electoral votes without VA.

Being tied is not where Romney needs to be just 100 days until election day. Heck, McDonnell won the state by nearly 18 points.

Norwegian on July 19, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Wonder if inthemiddleofobamasbutt is aware of the irony of it using a fox poll to spin for king putt?????

opustx on July 19, 2012 at 2:57 PM

“Texas will soon be a swing state” — Obama yesterday

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

FYI, he said that at a fundraiser in Austin hosted by the Gay, Lesbian, Trans-whatevers, so maybe he was thinking “swing” in the other sense of the word. What a whore.

TXUS on July 19, 2012 at 2:59 PM

I find it fascinating how the current trend in demographics, ie more Hispanic illegals, seem to instantly translate into a advantage for Democrats. I was under the impression that non citizens could not vote.

pat on July 19, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Don’t bet on it. Third-party groups can pretty easily register illegals, and then have them sign an absentee ballot on the spot. By the time the state catches it, the election is long over. And then – as in the case of Florida – if you try to clean up your voter rolls and remove illegals, our dear Attorney General will take you into court and try to stop you.

TarheelBen on July 19, 2012 at 3:01 PM

I knew as soon as I saw the headline that Allah didn’t post this. He only posts stories that are favorable to Obama.

The Notorious G.O.P on July 19, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Meh.

Virginia is a must-win state for Romney. There is now way he realistically gets to 270 electoral votes without VA.

Norwegian on July 19, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Simply not true.

Virginia is a valuable state to win but Romney can easily get to 270 without it. The above map doesn’t even give him Michigan, where he’s also been tied or ahead, PA, WI, or NV.

If anything it can be argued the VA is more important for Obama. If he doesn’t take it he’d better have all of the “traditional blue states” plus CO, IA, and NH, or else win OH or FL.

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

“Texas will soon be a swing state” — Obama yesterday

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Yep, the plan is to import more illegals, i.e., undocumented Democrats. This is why Eric Holder is fighting so hard against Texas’ new voter I.D. law, and has taken Florida into court to prevent them from removing ineligible voters from their rolls.

TarheelBen on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Someday you’re going to choke on that dog whistle.

What’s dismal is the desperate way leftards like yourself spring to cries of racism whenever you’re losing an argument. Pathetic.

peski on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Celebrating that Romney can only be tied AT BEST in usually ruby red Virginia (the heart of the Confederacy) shows how dismal it is for the GOP right now.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Err, what?

What is your purpose in life exactly?

NotCoach on July 19, 2012 at 3:12 PM

I’m in Virginia now, but I’m not from here.

With respect to the diary, I dont think its level-headedness. I think its organization. Virgil Goode is symbolic.

The demographics are trending against Red Virginia. But VA counter-punched in 2009 and 2010 by getting better organized and not taking things for granted. They used to do that a lot, while liberals centers were organized and mobilized.

Also, those is VA know that Obama is drowning Mitt out with ads. This is a great poll for Mitt. He drained Obama’s resources, weathered the attacks, and is no worse off for it.

BTW, I am running a campaign office in SW Virginia. Helping Romney, Allen, Hurt, Griffith and Goodlatt. Need Help!

swamp_yankee on July 19, 2012 at 3:12 PM

For all of the hand wringing on the right about Romney not being furhter ahead and the carping on the left about Obama stil tied or slightly in the lead in some swing states – remember this, Obama is only 44% in this poll as the incumbent and that’s not good. That means the remaining 56% are in the other camp or undecided. However the undecides have decided about Obama just not Rom,ney yet.

Tater Salad on July 19, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Simply not true.

Virginia is a valuable state to win but Romney can easily get to 270 without it.

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

The map you linked to is giving CO to Obama. I don’t buy it.

If VA is going Obama, there is no way that CO is going Romney. And I say that as someone who lives here.

Norwegian on July 19, 2012 at 3:18 PM

If somebody hasn’t already posted them, here’s the breakdown:

Registered Voters:
R28/D28/I37/O7

It doesn’t look to be skewed at all.

hisfrogness on July 19, 2012 at 3:24 PM

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:09 PM

So first you claim Virginia is “ruby red” and now imply that it will never be?

Ah, the logical inconsistencies that define the leftist brain… Are we at war with Eastasia or Eurasia, I tend to forget.

Gingotts on July 19, 2012 at 2:12 PM

:) poor inthemiddle, confusion dominates his thought process…well, brain fat process more accurately…

jimver on July 19, 2012 at 3:26 PM

peski on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

He just wants to take a dump in everyone’s Corn Flakes. It’s the only thing that apparently gets him out of bed in the morning. On election night he’ll be telling us how the Obama landslide loss isn’t really a loss because all the votes weren’t counted yet and Romney cheated. And probably citing another FOX poll to prove his point.

NotCoach on July 19, 2012 at 3:27 PM

It doesn’t look to be skewed at all.

hisfrogness on July 19, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Independents seems a little high.

NotCoach on July 19, 2012 at 3:28 PM

The devil smiles and says, “Since Obama took over, the country has gone to hell, so it’s a local call.”

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Thank you!

JoAnn1965 on July 19, 2012 at 3:29 PM

As to that FOX poll of Obama +4 – I believe the last FOX poll was Obama +5.

Not sure that is something to get excited about. A likely voter +4 Obama is probably a at best now a tie, at worst Romney +3. The trend for the prez is not good.

One optimistic nugget for Obama is Wisconsin – he screws the unions right in the backside because he doesn’t want to be associated with a loser and yet they still come to his call. Talk about battered women syndrome. Everything seems to be trending Romney, but not Wisconsin.

Zomcon JEM on July 19, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Also, those is VA know that Obama is drowning Mitt out with ads. This is a great poll for Mitt. He drained Obama’s resources, weathered the attacks, and is no worse off for it.

BTW, I am running a campaign office in SW Virginia. Helping Romney, Allen, Hurt, Griffith and Goodlatt. Need Help!

swamp_yankee on July 19, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Most informative post. Oh, and thank you for your involvement and good work!

jimver on July 19, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Comment pages: 1 2