Romney, Obama tied in Virginia

posted at 2:01 pm on July 19, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are in a dead heat among Virginia’s voters, with each of them receiving 44 percent of the population’s favor. The pollsters note that this does, however, constitute a shift in Mitt Romney’s general direction over the past few months, and Virginians are starting to trust Romney more on economic issues:

Republican challenger Mitt Romney wipes out President Barack Obama’s lead in Virginia and the two candidates are deadlocked 44 – 44 percent in the race for the Old Dominion’s 13 electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 42 percent lead for President Obama in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 47 – 42 percent Obama lead June 7.

By a narrow 47 – 44 percent, voters say Romney would do a better job on the economy. But voters support 59 – 36 percent Obama’s call to raise income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year. Support is strong among all income groups – except voters in households making more than $250,000 per year, where 48 percent support the idea and 51 percent oppose it.

I’m usually pretty darn proud of my home state of Virginia — at least relative to other states, the Old Dominion just seems to have its head screwed on correctly. With a moderately conservative governor leading my ecologically beautiful, historically rich state to multiple budget surpluses, a well-ranked business and regulatory environment, and very doable concealed-carry laws, Virginia has very rarely given me cause for dismay. The notable exception was in 2008, when my traditionally red state was swept up in the thrill of Hopenchange and went blue, giving Barack Obama its 13 electoral votes.

Having lived most of my life divided between the DC suburbs and Charlottesville — two of Virginia’s liberal epicenters among the conservative heartland — it’s been easy to note the palpably permeating feeling of ‘I’m-a-sophisticated-moderate,’ coastal semi-elitism among the populace contributing to the commonwealth’s newfound presidential purplishness.

So, now I’m left wondering: with Virginia’s shifting demographics, was 2008 the herald of a trend toward a bluer state; or will Virginia’s long history of level-headedness prevail now that Obama actually has a record behind him instead of just airy-fairy slogans? There are any number of factors to consider — the large Latino population, the high concentrations of young professionals, etcetera — but I think you can guess the outcome for which I’m rooting. I don’t want to have to move just yet.


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Registered Voters:
R28/D28/I37/O7

It doesn’t look to be skewed at all.

But Republicans have a nearly 4 point advantage in terms of voter registration in VA.

That’s the sort of untold story in all of this polling, you’ll see incredibly optimistic models where Democrats break all sorts of records and Republicans have “century low” turnout.

My guess is nationwide, the worst case scenario for the GOP will be like 2004, where you have nearly tied turnout nationwide. Even in that case, Romney wins comfortably.

BradTank on July 19, 2012 at 3:31 PM

With polls showing people want to raise taxes on those making 250K+…. I’m thinking that that’s the one issue that may prevent us from making sweeping victories, taking the senate to 60 Repubs, who knows, so we could cleanly repeal Obamacare. Let’s set priorities and push the Bush tax cuts in perspective.
One could make the case that, despite the Republican position, it would be fine, good even (for the deficit) to let ALL the Bush tax cuts expire. With the polls showing people want to raise taxes on the high incomers, why not, I don’t mean push for it, but if the Democrats are going to be fully intransigent, why not let all the cuts expire. Probably the economy will start doing better with Romney in, even if these cuts expire. Think of the deficit reduction.

Let the Bush tax cuts expire, i’m thinking.

anotherJoe on July 19, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Dear Ed,

Please don’t ever ban inthemiddle. Her knee-jerk, Pavlovian responses to these poll threads are priceless comedy gold, and the abuse she invites by posting her drivel here rather than at HuffPo where she belongs signals an almost pitiable tendency toward masochism.

Right Mover on July 19, 2012 at 3:34 PM

“Texas will soon be a swing state” — Obama yesterday

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Yep, the plan is to import more illegals, i.e., undocumented Democrats. This is why Eric Holder is fighting so hard against Texas’ new voter I.D. law, and has taken Florida into court to prevent them from removing ineligible voters from their rolls.

TarheelBen on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

For now Holder lost that battle. they conceded (the feds) to give Fl and all the other states access to their databases (of US citizens)….

jimver on July 19, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Well butter my butt and call me biscuit!

Of course we all know if the boy king were down by 4 in that poll you’d be calling it “Faux News” and reminding us all how they “lie” wouldn’t you sweet pea?

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 2:38 PM

A+

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 3:45 PM

It’s beyond me how the O-hole could be tied with anybody. Or anything. A barnacle should be polling higher than him at this point.

nico on July 19, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Yep, the plan is to import more illegals, i.e., undocumented Democrats. This is why Eric Holder is fighting so hard against Texas’ new voter I.D. law, and has taken Florida into court to prevent them from removing ineligible voters from their rolls.

TarheelBen on July 19, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Dewhurst was for giving all the illegals currently in the U.S. green cards. He’s removed the info from his site, trying to cover up that he promoted…and lied in the debate about it.

Viva Cuba libre – go Cruz!

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 3:48 PM

It’s beyond me how the O-hole could be tied with anybody. Or anything. A barnacle should be polling higher than him at this point.

nico on July 19, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Two factors:

1. Media eat Obam’s crap and mistake it for Beluga caviar.

2. People lie to the polls like never before.

Schadenfreude on July 19, 2012 at 3:49 PM

How can they possibly be tied in Virginia? Have Virginians become mindless idiots?

Yet another poll begging to be ignored.

J.E. Dyer on July 19, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Romney, Obama tied in Virginia

Yeah, but Gary Johnszzz beats them both, with at *least* 300 of the Electoral College votes!

That’s Right! With 300 of the EC votes already polled, Romney & Obama are obviously no match for the Libertarian Steamroller that is the…

:cue echo chamber effect:

The Johnson Juggernaut!

Gary Johnson 2012: Viva Le’ Mediocrity!

BlaxPac on July 19, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Zomcon JEM on July 19, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Meant to say RV. Not LV, in that FOX poll.

Zomcon JEM on July 19, 2012 at 4:09 PM

The latest about Virginia in the RCP average.

One thing that’s not present in any of those numbers however is what happens if Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party is another option. PPP was the only pollster to look at it. While they have Obama up by 8 in their head-to-head poll with Romney, that lead expanded to 14 with the inclusion of Goode, who drew 7 points from Romney, 1 point from Obama, and 1 point from undecideds for a total of 9 percent support.

I’d guess that Purple Strategies’ polling is probably accurate of a 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup. I also figure that Goode as a third option takes away more support from Mitt, but I’d bet that the 9 point total is probably overstated. I’d subtract 2-3 points from Mitt due to Goode’s inclusion, leading Romney to being behind by 4-5 points in reality.

Stoic Patriot on July 19, 2012 at 4:35 PM

How can they possibly be tied in Virginia? Have Virginians become mindless idiots?

Yet another poll begging to be ignored.

J.E. Dyer

You can ignore it if you want, but that won’t make it go away.

xblade on July 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Obama up by 4, according to Fox News. Sorry.

inthemiddle on July 19, 2012 at 2:04 PM

The race is tied according to Gallup.
Romney’s up by one according to Rasmussen and CBS/NYT.

steebo77 on July 19, 2012 at 2:15 PM

The Fox poll over-samples Democrats. It is D+4.

Basilsbest on July 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Dear Ed,

Please don’t ever ban inthemiddle. Her knee-jerk, Pavlovian responses to these poll threads are priceless comedy gold, and the abuse she invites by posting her drivel here rather than at HuffPo where she belongs signals an almost pitiable tendency toward masochism.

Right Mover on July 19, 2012 at 3:34 PM

I agree completely. And I would add renalin and ddrintin.

Basilsbest on July 19, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Stoic Patriot on July 19, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Take the “Color Purple” poll with a grain of salt. They refuse to divulge their polling sample breakdown.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 5:09 PM

I would really really like either Obama or Romney to get up by 10 points in this state so they will quit running commercials. It is already as bad as the last election and it is only July, what will October bring? 100% compaign commericals.

Fredlike on July 19, 2012 at 5:53 PM

I agree completely. And I would add renalin and ddrintin.

Basilsbest on July 19, 2012 at 5:06 PM

It would be cruel to ban them. Without HA and their obsession with Palin love and Romney hate they would not have a reason to live.

CW on July 19, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Let the Bush tax cuts expire, i’m thinking.

anotherJoe on July 19, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Not sure about all brackets should expire – but raise the threshold 2% for income earners over say a million/yr.

But lower cap gains a few points throughout to show a renewed investment in America. Besides- most investors are not getting fat these days in the markets anyway.

It would shut up the screeching- take some gloss of the Bain/Rich guy attacks as well.

FlaMurph on July 19, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Romney needs to spend money in Virgina. If he can take Virgina, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, all he will need is just one more toss-up state to kick Obama to the curb. Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, or even New Hampshire would be enough.

Dollayo on July 19, 2012 at 11:54 PM

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