CBS/NYT poll puts Romney up one over Obama

posted at 8:41 am on July 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Actually, for all the attention that Mitt Romney’s slight lead will get from the new CBS/NYT poll in the presidential race, this is essentially no different from its April poll of the contest.  Three months ago, CBS/NYT had the two men tied at 46/46 in a D+8 poll, and in last night’s release, Barack Obama trails by one in a D+6 poll.  It shows that Obama’s campaign hasn’t made a dent in the race despite having a massive spending advantage over the last three months — and that’s the bad news from this poll:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The one percentage point difference is within the survey’s three point margin of error.

Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women.

These results come from the subsample of registered voters, which has a D/R/I of 33/27/41 after the CBS/NYT weighting.  The raw subsample of registered voters had a much more reasonable and predictive 34/31/41, which still oversampled independents relative to the other two categories but at least came closer to a predictive ratio between Democrats and Republicans.  This still improves over their last sample, though, which went from a raw split of 34/31/36 to a weighted 34/26/40.  The one-point shift between the two polls can probably be attributed to the difference in the samples.

Still, Obama needed to throw a knockout punch against Romney while he held a money advantage, and has obviously been increasingly desperate to do so.  The “felon” remark from Team Obama showed just how panicked they have become, probably also seeing no trending changes while they bury Romney with campaign ads.  Not only have they failed to build any momentum, what harbingers there are to find in this poll show stirrings forRomney.  Enthusiasm is up among Republicans and down among Democrats, as I noted yesterday, and Obama’s approval ratings on issues are all under water now:

  • Overall: 44/46
  • Economy: 39/55
  • Foreign Policy: 41/42

The shift downward on foreign policy comes as a bit of a surprise.  Obama has done relatively well in this area with the American public.  Until now, Obama might have found some refuge (as incumbents Presidents often do) in foreign relations, arguing that the challenger would be too inexperienced and disruptive.  That option appears closed off to Obama at the moment, as do practically all other areas of the job.  Romney now enjoys wide leads or virtual ties on almost all areas:

  • Economy and jobs: Romney, 49/41
  • Budget deficit: 50/36
  • Taxes: 47/42
  • Illegal immigration (CBS/NYT term): 46/36
  • Health care: 42/43
  • Terrorism and security: 43/44

Obama only wins on foreign policy (47/40) and social issues (48/37).  Unfortunately for Obama, these are the two least-important issues to voters in this survey.  While Obama has been fighting the Trojan Wars, 27% believe social issues to be “not at all important” in this election, the only issue to get more than 7% in that category.

The Washington Post asks this morning whether Romney can survive the summer.  The better question is whether Obama will have any gas left in the tank when Romney can finally start spending his general-election cash.

Update: Guy Benson notes one particularly disturbing trend for Obama:

Note well that Obama is underwater on the favorability question, generally his strong suit, by double digits.  More Americans are developing a poor overall perception of Obama the man, independent from their misgivings about his leadership. The economic numbers have to be extremely worrying for the White House, as voters’ confidence is again slipping away.  As I mentioned up top, this poll under-sampled Republicans and handed Democrats a 6.5 point partisan advantage.  This would mean the 2012 electorate would be roughly the same as 2008′s, which seems quite unlikely (the party breakdown was even in 2010).  More importantly, the NYT/CBS survey oversampled independents, who will determine this election.  Obama numbers among the indies are abysmal.  Via the crosstabs:

(1) Obama’s job approval among independents is a paltry 35/49.

(2) His economic job approval with indies is 31/61.

(3) Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama head-to-head by 12 points within this group, 47/35 (he’s +9 with leaners).

(4) Obama’s favorability with independents is — wait for it — 28/52 (!), with Romney actually above water at 32/31.
Barack Obama is in deep, deep trouble with indepenents at the moment.  If these numbers hold, and the electorate is a hybrid of the 2008 and 2010 turnout models (which I think is likely), he will lose.

Be sure to read it all.


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Comment pages: 1 2

…I don’t care until November!

KOOLAID2 on July 19, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Uh oh, NEXT poll will show Obama up by at least 5 with a D+10 (or worse, whatever it takes to protect Preezy).

wildcat72 on July 19, 2012 at 8:43 AM

…the only thing I care about is Ed’s take on it.

KOOLAID2 on July 19, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Many answers in the Fox News Poll are also interesting.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 8:44 AM

It ain’t gonna be D+6 on Election Day, so Obama’s in big trouble.

Doughboy on July 19, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Of course….
Freedom loving Americans saw Obama’s mask slip a few days ago.

They was what we saw…

An A$$hole.

Electrongod on July 19, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Backfire

But hey continue that double down there Obama

cmsinaz on July 19, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Americans have had enough.

kingsjester on July 19, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Fox 42 D, 38 R, 18 I Barry +4

But:
–Barry’s disapproval went up
–Romney’s fav/unfav 52/40 vs Barry 52/46
–Bain work was not viewed as negative
–Barry/Axelrod’s description of Romney work at Bain: Mostly true 35 Mostly false 44
–Raising Tax at this time is considered a bad idea, even among Dems.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 8:48 AM

That’s good news. Have you seen this one yet Ed?

Romney closes 12-point gap to tie Obama in Virginia, poll finds

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 8:48 AM

If it’s CBS/NYTimes add the obligatory 3% Romney’s favor outside the margin of error.

princetrumpet on July 19, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Awesome. Little Bammy and his slimeball handlers have pissed away hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions and they’ve actually achieved less than nothing.

eyedoc on July 19, 2012 at 8:48 AM

ROMNEY IS A FELON OR SOMETHING!@#111!eleventy11!!

Good Lt on July 19, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Brilliant/devastating new ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNHeTwoy5vI

GOPRanknFile on July 19, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Combine a registered voter sample with a huge enthusiasm gap in favor of the side that already turns out better and the poll is likely to be wrong. Toss in a skewed sample, and it’s really wrong. Obama is in trouble.

Better find something better than old tax returns nobody except the stooge media cares about.

forest on July 19, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Where are the trolls? Aren’t they out of bed yet?

rhombus on July 19, 2012 at 8:55 AM

ABC’s RICK KLEIN points out: “The story yesterday was that the Bain and tax return attacks were working; the story today is that the economy is still the biggest issue for voters. Both may be true, and of course each side has an incentive in their argument being the one that sticks. But the election will still hinge on the Obama economy, not simply the Romney biography — a reason for Republicans to exhale after a breathless few weeks.”

BOTTOM LINE: Today’s poll may be the thing that helps Romney finally “turn the page” in the race back to economy. Source

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Tax returns!

Idiots

cmsinaz on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

GOPRanknFile on July 19, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Wait till Romney has access to the General Election Campaign Fund after the GOP Convention.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

A Romney win will simply be a continuation of Obama policies, which are a continuation of the policies of past presidents. Government will grow, spending will continue, debt will rise, our liberties will be infringed upon, and the Constitution will be ignored.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

If Romney doesn’t win by a landslide of Carter/McGovernesque proportions,this country has lost its collective mind.

Cleombrotus on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

ROMNEY IS A FELON OR SOMETHING!@#111!eleventy11!!

Good Lt on July 19, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Tax returns! Rush Limbaugh said something about Batman! Fair share!

forest on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

The affordable care act — It’s like a ball and chain around the foot.

Red Creek on July 19, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Uh uh…war on women..uh…felon…uh uh…bain..ah $hit..racist voters.

msupertas on July 19, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Where is inthemiddle? This might ruin its whole day.

Night Owl on July 19, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Where is inthemiddle? This might ruin its whole day.

Night Owl on July 19, 2012 at 8:59 AM

One can only hope.

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Brilliant/devastating new ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNHeTwoy5vI

GOPRanknFile on July 19, 2012 at 8:53 AM

LOVE that ad! That is how to hit him, Romney! The ad hits every single note it needs to: The middle class business owner asking “Why are you demonizing us?” and saying “We are not the problem, we are the solution.” And the ending tag line — “Four years of being torn down. It’s time to rebuild” just perfectly encapsulates the Obama reign of terror. Perfect! Run it in every swing state from now until election day.

Rational Thought on July 19, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Sadly, I’m afraid you are correct.

Cleombrotus on July 19, 2012 at 9:00 AM

“The raw subsample of registered voters had a much more reasonable and predictive 34/31/41″

Umm, Ed, that’s 106% It may be more reasonable and predictive, but if we get percentages that far over 100, I’m guessing it’d be skewed more strongly Democrat….

notropis on July 19, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Wait till Romney has access to the General Election Campaign Fund after the GOP Convention.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Precisely.

GOPRanknFile on July 19, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Yeah. the yahoo.com news headline this morning is an attack piece on Mormonism . Maybe they’re changing their attack from “taxes” and moved on to the big scary Mormon…

sandee on July 19, 2012 at 9:01 AM

BAIN! BANE! BAIN!

Wait!

What’s That?

Budfox saw Dark Knight Rises!

Bane’s Van Jones?!?!?!

Change Message!

Now!

budfox on July 19, 2012 at 9:02 AM

There are no blogs today about the possible VP pick, so forgive me for being a little off topic.

Romney would be smart to pick Rubio to secure Florida. Then he could focus his campaign in OH, PA, midwest battleground states and avoid having to travel back and forth. Would save a lot of time, energy, and expense and create a big campaign advantage.

michaelthomas on July 19, 2012 at 9:04 AM

We had a major household shift last night…for the first time, my hubby said he might be voting against obama. It’s not an ideological thing, he just really doesnt pay attention to politics (like most americans) until september. He thinks the attacks on bain capital/tax returns are idiotic and hypocritical. This is huge…my husband gives EVERYBODY the benefit of the doubt.

peachaeo on July 19, 2012 at 9:04 AM

sandee on July 19, 2012 at 9:01 AM

If so, that’s months ahead of schedule, and reeks of desperation.

notropis on July 19, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Checked the WaPo article and somehow, miraculously, it’s been tweeted over 35,000 times already. Coordination with Team Obama? Yep.

cicerone on July 19, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Great ad….he needs one for all the states and get them on air….pronto

cmsinaz on July 19, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM
Sadly, I’m afraid you are correct.

Cleombrotus on July 19, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Mind you, I’m not blaming that exclusively on Romney.

Cleombrotus on July 19, 2012 at 9:11 AM

If the Kenyan dog-eater can’t do better than this running against a “felon”, then it’s good-bye socialist puppet.

HiJack on July 19, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Especially in the past two weeks has Mr. Obama acted like we expect an American President to act…I think the CBS/NYTimes Poll shows the American people do not think he has.

100 million dollars….to go backwards….well that sounds like the stimulus program….Solyndra…

DVPTexFla on July 19, 2012 at 9:13 AM

This is just a clear illustration of how weak some of our conservative pundrity are- last week they were all in lock step on how badly the Bain attacks were hurting Romney. I didn’t see it then, and I’m still not seeing polls that reflect it.

I’m going to stick to my original theory that even Richard Nixon could rise from the grave and run against Obama, and still win. It’s time for Obama to exit our lives.

BettyRuth on July 19, 2012 at 9:15 AM

A Romney win will simply be a continuation of Obama policies, which are a continuation of the policies of past presidents. Government will grow, spending will continue, debt will rise, our liberties will be infringed upon, and the Constitution will be ignored.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Right! Romney’s a socialist/Marxist big government welfare state Presidential candidate. Tea Party conservatives in the House and in the Senate (next year) will outspend Obama 3 to 1, and will pass laws that will make the Constitution moot. Hey, let’s all just vote for Obama, so we can all feel more liberated!

Rovin on July 19, 2012 at 9:15 AM

ahem, “punditry”

BettyRuth on July 19, 2012 at 9:16 AM

We had a major household shift last night…for the first time, my hubby said he might be voting against obama. It’s not an ideological thing, he just really doesnt pay attention to politics (like most americans) until september. He thinks the attacks on bain capital/tax returns are idiotic and hypocritical. This is huge…my husband gives EVERYBODY the benefit of the doubt.

peachaeo on July 19, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Well, you just keep working on him. Good work.

esr1951 on July 19, 2012 at 9:17 AM

The reason the dems are so interested in Romney’s tax returns may be because most of them don’t pay taxes and have never actually seen one.

DanaSmiles on July 19, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Last week it was Why isn’t Romney fighting back from Bain attacks.
The sky was falling.

This week-the attacks are doing OBAMA no good.

Boy ED, I’m starting to wonder.

Everything I’ve seen tells me this election is going to to a referendum on OBAMA.

Mitt just has to sell himself as a safe-compentent leader-who can do a better job on the economy.

gerry-DARE I SAY IT ANOTHER POLL

gerrym51 on July 19, 2012 at 9:18 AM

•Foreign Policy: 41/42

The shift downward on foreign policy comes as a bit of a surprise. Obama has done relatively well in this area with the American public.

Foreign policy, relatively well?
It’s because the public doesn’t pay attention to anything beyond our shores.
In my opinion, the President has repeatedly insulted the US’s best ally, Great Britain (& I don’t even consider him twice recently referring to “the English embassy” as an insult), as well as outrageously opposed their interests (i.e., the Faulklands). Obama has hurt our relations with other allies, too: he has betrayed Poland, Israel, Canada, Georgia, & Honduras. Those are the ones that come to mind; I’m sure there are others. The best example of a true “Arab Spring” was in Iran, & Obama turned a deaf ear (except for a mild statement weeks too late) to the throngs of freedom seekers who were brutally repressed. But when US ally Mubarak was opposed in Egypt, Obama jumped on that bandwagon like a kid on a merry-go-round. Now Islamo-fascists have largely taken over there. In Libya, Obama took the US to war unconstitutionally–Congress had no say–but Obama was careful to get permission from the corrupt UN. And the Islamo-fascists have apparently largely taken over there.
And we have badly lost ground to Chavez & Castro in Latin America.

itsnotaboutme on July 19, 2012 at 9:18 AM

LOVE that ad! That is how to hit him, Romney! The ad hits every single note it needs to: The middle class business owner asking “Why are you demonizing us?” and saying “We are not the problem, we are the solution.” And the ending tag line — “Four years of being torn down. It’s time to rebuild” just perfectly encapsulates the Obama reign of terror. Perfect! Run it in every swing state from now until election day.

Rational Thought on July 19, 2012 at 9:00 AM

These guys demonize everyone.

esr1951 on July 19, 2012 at 9:18 AM

As we cruise into the hard-core campaign season barack’s “favorability” rating — that all-important “likeability” that was going to save him — is cratering. In this poll, he’s at 36/48 favorable/unfavorable overall, and at 28/52 with independents. And more Republicans find him unfavorable, 7/82, than democrats who find him favorable, 69-16.

The Fox poll out yesterday asks: How important is it to you that the candidate you are supporting wins the election for president?

Obama supporters? 48% say “extremely important”
Romney supporters? 58%
Intensity, baby!

Barack favorable/unfavorable? 52/46
Romney favorable/unfavorable? 52/40

The same favorable ratings, but more Americans are unfavorable toward barack!

He’s losing his last campaign benefit — favorability. Quick! Get the press in here and kiss Moochelle!

Rational Thought on July 19, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Cautiously optimistic

Stand strong. Mitt

cmsinaz on July 19, 2012 at 9:22 AM

GOPRanknFile on July 19, 2012 at 8:53 AM

VERY GOOD AD !!

pambi on July 19, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Mittsunami, baby! 100 comments or bust!

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:23 AM

DanaSmiles on July 19, 2012 at 9:17 AM

OMG that is freaking hilarious!! Mitt can’t say it, but he should find a surrogate who can!

peachaeo on July 19, 2012 at 9:25 AM

The raw subsample of registered voters had a much more reasonable and predictive 34/31/41, which still oversampled independents relative to the other two categories but at least came closer to a predictive ratio between Democrats and Republicans.

34 + 31 + 41 = 106. Methinks there’s a typo somewhere.

Steve Z on July 19, 2012 at 9:25 AM

He’s losing his last campaign benefit — favorability. Quick! Get the press in here and kiss Moochelle!
Rational Thought on July 19, 2012 at 9:19 AM

“Is that your wife? You didn’t kiss that!”

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Look for the Dims to be making more strident attacks on those “racist” and “Jim Crow” voter ID laws (that are supported by a large majority of Americans across all ethnic classes).

The Dims won’t release their grip on power without a fight to the death. They’ll use every dirty trick in their playbook, and they’ll cheat worse than ever.

AZCoyote on July 19, 2012 at 9:29 AM

That’s good news. Have you seen this one yet Ed?

Romney closes 12-point gap to tie Obama in Virginia, poll finds

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 8:48 AM

I’m missing something, Flora. Where are they finding twelve points?
Okay, it is early, I haven’t eaten my Wheaties yet! : )

herm2416 on July 19, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Judging from the internal numbers, Obama thugging it up appears to be hurting him more than Romney. Good.

WannabeAnglican on July 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

This is how most of the polls will start trending. Obozo’s “you didn’t build it” remark was and wil continue to be damaging. Once people start paying attention to the election on a day to day basis Romney’s lead will dramatically escalate.

Unless………..
The Desperate Ruler in Chief engineers us into WW3 starting in the Middle East. It’s his ace in the hole and he is about to draw it. The man is a megalomaniac.

NOMOBO on July 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

The Washington Post is really clowning itself in this election. Maybe people will finally wake up and realize that the Post is the company paper, and the company is the federal government. The only place in America where there is anything resembling an economic recovery is in the DC area. So they are fighting fiercely to maintain their hold on all of our money. It isn’t even about Barack Obama anymore, it is a death struggle for Washington and for the Post.

rockmom on July 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Right! Romney’s a socialist/Marxist big government welfare state Presidential candidate. Tea Party conservatives in the House and in the Senate (next year) will outspend Obama 3 to 1, and will pass laws that will make the Constitution moot. Hey, let’s all just vote for Obama, so we can all feel more liberated!

Rovin on July 19, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I didn’t say Romney is a socialist/Marxist. I said he will continue the policies of Obama, who has continued the policies of his predecessors. Surely you don’t believe Romney is a Constitutionalist who believes in limited government? The man is status quo establishment personified.

And those Tea Party conservatives elected to the House voted to raise the debt ceiling and increased spending, you know.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Quick question: is it mathematically possible for the GOP to obtain a filibuster proof majority in the senate in this cycle…?

ujorge on July 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

These results come from the subsample of registered voters, which has a D/R/I of 33/27/41 after the CBS/NYT weighting.

Why did CBS/NYT feel the need to “weight” the poll to only 27% Republicans and 41% Indies? 33% Democrats is about right, but Gallup has found that lots of former Dems are re-registering as Indies, but Republicans are stable, and their share of the electorate is usually in the low-to-mid 30′s.

If Romney can win Indies by 12%, and their turnout is 30-something percent of the electorate, it gives Romney about a 4% overall lead. As long as the Republican “base” turns out to better than D+3, these internals point to a Romney win.

Steve Z on July 19, 2012 at 9:35 AM

“NYT/CBS poll (8 years ago today): Bush, 41%, Kerry, 45%.”

gumbyandpokey on July 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

It is being reported today that unnamed sources in the White House said The First Lady is pissed….It is reported she was yelling we skipped the annual expensive trip to Martha’s Vineyard…for this…..she is kicking his butt all over the White House….and she want’s her mom jeans back….two sources confirmed that Michelle told the girls…tell daddy whare he can pack that Nobel Peace Prize…..

DVPTexFla on July 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Barack Obama is in deep, deep trouble with indepenents at the moment. If these numbers hold, and the electorate is a hybrid of the 2008 and 2010 turnout models (which I think is likely), he will lose.

Lookie there, BHO. You made that happen all by yerself. Dont’ try pawn’n it off on GDub now.

ted c on July 19, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Unless………..
The Desperate Ruler in Chief engineers us into WW3 starting in the Middle East. It’s his ace in the hole and he is about to draw it. The man is a megalomaniac.

NOMOBO on July 19, 2012 at 9:30 AM

THIS. This just scares me to death. I think Obama and his delusional team have no idea what they would be getting into, just that “He’d be a big hero- IF it went well”. I have no doubt that he’s ignorant, and desperate enough to do anything.

BettyRuth on July 19, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Where are the trolls? Aren’t they out of bed yet?

rhombus on July 19, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Mittsunami, baby! 100 comments or bust!

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:23 AM

And..there he is.

Hattip..Geico.

HumpBot Salvation on July 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

“NYT/CBS poll (8 years ago today): Bush, 41%, Kerry, 45%.”

gumbyandpokey on July 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Unpleasant reality. Folks, incumbency is hard to beat.

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

And..there he is.

Hattip..Geico.

HumpBot Salvation on July 19, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Hmmmm. How am I any more of a troll than the compulsive poll-humping Mittbots here?

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Rasmussen today Romney 47 Barry 46

There is a NPR poll published today with Barry at 47 and Romney at 45. Sample are likely voters with a Democratic advantage of 7 points over Republicans.(36 percent Democrat, 31 percent Independent, and 29 percent Republican.)

Interesting take is with a +7 over-sample of Democrat voters, it is a 46-46 tie in the 12 battleground states: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 9:47 AM

^ You, for example, Humpbot. What makes you NOT a troll? Simply because you go along with the approved MittRomneyCentral groupthink here? Is that it?

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:47 AM

It will be fun to watch NBC’s coverage of Olympic dressage.

Greek Fire on July 19, 2012 at 9:47 AM

From the poll:
Obama, Economy: 39/55
Economy and jobs: Romney, 49/41
Obama’s job approval among independents is a paltry 35/49.
His economic job approval with indies is 31/61.
Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama head-to-head by 12 points within this group, 47/35 (he’s +9 with leaners).

No way anyone can win re-election with these numbers…

mnjg on July 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Interesting take is with a +7 over-sample of Democrat voters, it is a 46-46 tie in the 12 battleground states: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Of course, as we all know, Dems and Reps are going to be voting in exactly equal numbers in November, so Romney is going to win in a landslide.

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Hmmmm. How am I any more of a troll than the compulsive poll-humping Mittbots here?
ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:46 AM

You have yet to post anything not having to do with your hatred of Romney that I have seen.

That’s what trolls do- repeat inciteful things ad nauseum then flee.

You have absolutely nothing else to contribute.

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Quick question: is it mathematically possible for the GOP to obtain a filibuster proof majority in the senate in this cycle…?

ujorge on July 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Not likely. Republicans have 47 Senators now, and would need +13 net pickups to get to a filibuster-proof majority of 60. As things stand now, Republicans will probably pick up Dem seats in ND, NE, and MO, and are in close races in Democrat-held seats in MT, VA, WI, and FL, which gives a maximum pickup of +7. However, Republicans will probably lose Maine to a Dem-leaning independent (Angus King), and are defending vulnerable seats in MA (Scott Brown) and NV (Heller). Republicans are far behind in Senate races for other Democrat-held seats.

If Republicans won all the close races and held MA and NV, they could get to a maximum of 53 Senate seats. In a worst-case scenario, where Republicans lost all the close races and lost MA and NV, they would remain at 47 Senators as in the current Senate.

The real battle in the Senate is for the majority, which could range between 47 and 53 for either party. In the case of a 50/50 split, the Senate majority will be decided by either Joe Biden or Romney’s Vice President.

One thing for sure–there WILL be filibusters in the next Senate!

Steve Z on July 19, 2012 at 9:53 AM

ahhh..did I hurt the little trolls feelings?

One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument

If the definition fits…wear it.

The fact that you NEVER make a comment on a Obama comment thread and 99.9% of your comments are a slam against Romney on any thread..regardless of what the article is about…is what makes you a troll and a loser.

The fact that you never post anything remotely interesting or even snarkly or humorous….is what makes you a troll.

The fact that you post the same crap over and over and over..is what makes you a troll.

The fact that nobody gives a chit about your insane rantings and only respond to you to ridicule you and point out what a troll you are..makes you a troll.

The fact that you use the term MittBotts is what makes you a troll.

That answer the question for you?

HumpBot Salvation on July 19, 2012 at 9:54 AM

You have yet to post anything not having to do with your hatred of Romney that I have seen.

That’s what trolls do- repeat inciteful things ad nauseum then flee.

You have absolutely nothing else to contribute.

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Yep, nailed it. He’s the proverbial turd in the punchbowl.

changer1701 on July 19, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Steve Z on July 19, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Lingle may have a shot in Hawaii.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Gumbyandpokey hardest hit.

Right Mover on July 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Good Morning, Lew. Cindy Sheehan called from downstairs. Needs more whiskey in her coffee.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 9:59 AM

so Romney is going to win in a landslide.

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

And spoil your fantasy.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Of course, as we all know, Dems and Reps are going to be voting in exactly equal numbers in November, so Romney is going to win in a landslide.
ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:48 AM

And yet you get erect from a NYT poll from 8 years ago showing Kerry ahead, because everyone will eventually behave the exact same way as 2004.

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 10:02 AM

And those Tea Party conservatives elected to the House voted to raise the debt ceiling and increased spending, you know.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Really, Lew? How could they do that when the Democrat-controlled Senate has refused to pass a budget in years?

F-

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

This is just a clear illustration of how weak some of our conservative pundrity are

They are insulated in the D.C. bubble. Many of them have no clue what goes on in the real world. You think people like Bill Kristol or Peggy Noonan have any concept of how real people think and live?

Right Mover on July 19, 2012 at 10:05 AM

“NYT/CBS poll (8 years ago today): Bush, 41%, Kerry, 45%.”

gumbyandpokey on July 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Wasn’t aware those two were running this year.

By the way, did you know the final Faux News poll had Bush losing to Thurston?

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I wrote here that this poll should frighten Team Obama. Anytime that a sitting president can only muster 43% of the vote, that’s danger zone time.

LFRGary on July 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

How am I any more of a troll than the compulsive poll-humping Mittbots here?

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Because you contribute absolutely nothing to the discussion?

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:09 AM

“NYT/CBS poll (8 years ago today): Bush, 41%, Kerry, 45%.”

gumbyandpokey on July 19, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Thanks for proving the point that polls this far out by “unbiased” (LOL) sources like the Times and CBS will always make it look worse for the Republican candidate than is actually the case in November.

Good work.

Right Mover on July 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Really, Lew? How could they do that when the Democrat-controlled Senate has refused to pass a budget in years?

F-

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Surely you aren’t going to argue that the debt ceiling wasn’t raised. You think not having a budget prevents government spending? You are a very odd person who is so ridiculously uninformed.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM

It ain’t gonna be D+6 on Election Day, so Obama’s in big trouble.

Doughboy on July 19, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Let’s hope you’re correct!

freedomfirst on July 19, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Steve Z on July 19, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Lingle may have a shot in Hawaii.

bayview on July 19, 2012 at 9:58 AM

More than just a shot.

As the Wall Street Journal told us just yesterday:

A new round of polling from the business-friendly U.S Chamber of Commerce suggests President Barack Obama’s home state might actually be in play.

Republican former Gov. Linda Lingle leads Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono, 47% to 41%, to fill a seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka, according to a new poll released by the Chamber. Earlier polls show the Democrat with a solid lead.

The same story also reports poll results from Montana and Virginia showing the Republicans ahead in those states; the Republican in Montana (Denny Rehberg) leads Democrat Senator Tester by 7%.

Complete story

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM

You are a very odd person who is so ridiculously uninformed.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/who-raised-the-debt-ceiling/2011/07/14/gIQA7TIvEI_graphic.html

Pot.

Kettle.

Black.

Ron Paul is God.

You’re Dismissed.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Shocking. C-BS Radio “News” totally ignored their own poll at the top of the hour.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:21 AM

If Hawaii is in play then all 57 states are up for grabs.

Brian Mallard on July 19, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Thanks for proving the point that polls this far out by “unbiased” (LOL) sources like the Times and CBS will always make it look worse for the Republican candidate than is actually the case in November.

Good work.

Right Mover on July 19, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Indeed! By that fella’s estimation, Romney is up 7!

Rational Thought on July 19, 2012 at 10:23 AM

I wrote here that this poll should frighten Team Obama. Anytime that a sitting president can only muster 43% of the vote, that’s danger zone time.

LFRGary on July 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I saw Michael Barone on Fox this morning, and he said “100% of voters know this president, and 54% have said they won’t be voting for him.”

Rational Thought on July 19, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Obama only wins on foreign policy (47/40) and social issues (48/37).

My business was teaching kids how to read charts, graphs, statistics, and looking at WHO it was that answered surveys.

This pool of respondents give Obama a 47%/40 on foreign policy. That is who they are.

This pool of respondents give Obama a 48/37 for SOCIAL ISSUES.

Very important. This pool prefers liberal social values 48 to 37.
Are they the people that are going to come out to vote in November?

Does anyone have that answer?

Fleuries on July 19, 2012 at 10:26 AM

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