CBS/NYT poll puts Romney up one over Obama

posted at 8:41 am on July 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Actually, for all the attention that Mitt Romney’s slight lead will get from the new CBS/NYT poll in the presidential race, this is essentially no different from its April poll of the contest.  Three months ago, CBS/NYT had the two men tied at 46/46 in a D+8 poll, and in last night’s release, Barack Obama trails by one in a D+6 poll.  It shows that Obama’s campaign hasn’t made a dent in the race despite having a massive spending advantage over the last three months — and that’s the bad news from this poll:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The one percentage point difference is within the survey’s three point margin of error.

Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women.

These results come from the subsample of registered voters, which has a D/R/I of 33/27/41 after the CBS/NYT weighting.  The raw subsample of registered voters had a much more reasonable and predictive 34/31/41, which still oversampled independents relative to the other two categories but at least came closer to a predictive ratio between Democrats and Republicans.  This still improves over their last sample, though, which went from a raw split of 34/31/36 to a weighted 34/26/40.  The one-point shift between the two polls can probably be attributed to the difference in the samples.

Still, Obama needed to throw a knockout punch against Romney while he held a money advantage, and has obviously been increasingly desperate to do so.  The “felon” remark from Team Obama showed just how panicked they have become, probably also seeing no trending changes while they bury Romney with campaign ads.  Not only have they failed to build any momentum, what harbingers there are to find in this poll show stirrings forRomney.  Enthusiasm is up among Republicans and down among Democrats, as I noted yesterday, and Obama’s approval ratings on issues are all under water now:

  • Overall: 44/46
  • Economy: 39/55
  • Foreign Policy: 41/42

The shift downward on foreign policy comes as a bit of a surprise.  Obama has done relatively well in this area with the American public.  Until now, Obama might have found some refuge (as incumbents Presidents often do) in foreign relations, arguing that the challenger would be too inexperienced and disruptive.  That option appears closed off to Obama at the moment, as do practically all other areas of the job.  Romney now enjoys wide leads or virtual ties on almost all areas:

  • Economy and jobs: Romney, 49/41
  • Budget deficit: 50/36
  • Taxes: 47/42
  • Illegal immigration (CBS/NYT term): 46/36
  • Health care: 42/43
  • Terrorism and security: 43/44

Obama only wins on foreign policy (47/40) and social issues (48/37).  Unfortunately for Obama, these are the two least-important issues to voters in this survey.  While Obama has been fighting the Trojan Wars, 27% believe social issues to be “not at all important” in this election, the only issue to get more than 7% in that category.

The Washington Post asks this morning whether Romney can survive the summer.  The better question is whether Obama will have any gas left in the tank when Romney can finally start spending his general-election cash.

Update: Guy Benson notes one particularly disturbing trend for Obama:

Note well that Obama is underwater on the favorability question, generally his strong suit, by double digits.  More Americans are developing a poor overall perception of Obama the man, independent from their misgivings about his leadership. The economic numbers have to be extremely worrying for the White House, as voters’ confidence is again slipping away.  As I mentioned up top, this poll under-sampled Republicans and handed Democrats a 6.5 point partisan advantage.  This would mean the 2012 electorate would be roughly the same as 2008′s, which seems quite unlikely (the party breakdown was even in 2010).  More importantly, the NYT/CBS survey oversampled independents, who will determine this election.  Obama numbers among the indies are abysmal.  Via the crosstabs:

(1) Obama’s job approval among independents is a paltry 35/49.

(2) His economic job approval with indies is 31/61.

(3) Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama head-to-head by 12 points within this group, 47/35 (he’s +9 with leaners).

(4) Obama’s favorability with independents is — wait for it — 28/52 (!), with Romney actually above water at 32/31.
Barack Obama is in deep, deep trouble with indepenents at the moment.  If these numbers hold, and the electorate is a hybrid of the 2008 and 2010 turnout models (which I think is likely), he will lose.

Be sure to read it all.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Oh my. Your ignorance is worse than I believed it to be.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Look for the Dims to be making more strident attacks on those “racist” and “Jim Crow” voter ID laws (that are supported by a large majority of Americans across all ethnic classes).

The Dims won’t release their grip on power without a fight to the death. They’ll use every dirty trick in their playbook, and they’ll cheat worse than ever.

AZCoyote on July 19, 2012 at 9:29 AM

The ACLU has filed a suit here in PA. There are, according to them, a million people without ID.

Night Owl on July 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

The ACLU has filed a suit here in PA. There are, according to them, a million people without ID.

Night Owl on July 19, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Let me guess, according to the ACLU expecting those 1 million to get up off the couch to go get one would be a hardship, right?

Flora Duh on July 19, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I fully expect Joe Biden to get a mysterious illness if this keeps up.

Wagthatdog on July 19, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Oh my. Your ignorance is worse than I believed it to be.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:27 AM

You mean Ron Paul isn’t God?

O’bama and Geithner lied thru their teeth all the way thru last year’s debt ceiling fiasco. Only you ignore that Inconvenient Truth.

You really need to take Alinsky 101 over again, Lew. Your utterly weak use of shallow insults is admission that you’ve already lost the debate.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:44 AM

You poor, poor dear. Bless your heart.

And those Tea Party conservatives elected to the House voted to raise the debt ceiling and increased spending, you know.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Really, Lew? How could they do that when the Democrat-controlled Senate has refused to pass a budget in years?

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:03 AM

House passes $2.1 trillion debt limit increase

Those who voted to increase the debt ceiling and increase spending include “Tea Party conservatives” Allen West and Kristi Noem

And here’s West calling Tea Partiers schizo because of his vote: Link

Then the Senate voted on it and it passed. Then Obama signed it into law.

You do know how legislation becomes law, right?

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Your ignorance is worse than I believed it to be.

AP- I nominate this as the HA banner…

socalcon on July 19, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Your ignorance is worse than I believed it to be.

hmm… so, your ignorance was also worse than you thought…

socalcon on July 19, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:52 AM

It would be insane not to raise the debt ceiling. I don’t think there even should be a debt ceiling. Not raising it means default. The whole reason I want to slash spending is to avoid a default. Why should we force our own default before the market does?

NukeRidingCowboy on July 19, 2012 at 11:30 AM

It would be insane not to raise the debt ceiling. I don’t think there even should be a debt ceiling. Not raising it means default. The whole reason I want to slash spending is to avoid a default. Why should we force our own default before the market does?

NukeRidingCowboy on July 19, 2012 at 11:30 AM

It would be – and was – insane to raise the debt ceiling. Yes, not raising it means default. So what? It’s not going to be apocalyptic as your government and its fear-mongering mouthpieces say it would be.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

It would be – and was – insane to raise the debt ceiling. Yes, not raising it means default. So what? It’s not going to be apocalyptic as your government and its fear-mongering mouthpieces say it would be.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Maybe not, but maybe so. I’d rather not find out because as far as black swans go, that would be a pretty big one. Besides, who do you think is going to get the blame for the fallout of that? It won’t be the left. It’ll be the libertarian-minded among us.

NukeRidingCowboy on July 19, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Still, Obama needed to throw a knockout punch against Romney

Romney needs to counter with below the belt kick.

We need to be rid of this guy. Marquis of Queensbury rules do not apply.

NoDonkey on July 19, 2012 at 11:54 AM

he will lose.

Music to my ears.

HellCat on July 19, 2012 at 11:57 AM

If the Central Bullsh!t System and New Yahk Times continue to tell the liberal world (and the uninformed masses who aren’t really paying much attention) that Obama cannot get Romney knocked out early in the fight (April and now July), and that Obama’s huge spending isn’t moving the needle…
Who’s going to improve their enthusiasm numbers and get the Dem base more excited in Aug/Sep?
Who’s going to start all-of-a-sudden writing huge checks for Obama?
How can Obama possibly recover from this and move the needle?

DublOh7 on July 19, 2012 at 11:57 AM

This poll confirms again, that social conservatives would torpedo this election if they were permitted to control the debate and drone on about abortion.

Romneys team is doing a good job of pushing social issues to the margins. In any case, these social issues will only matter if he can win the presidency and nominate judges.

rickyricardo on July 19, 2012 at 11:57 AM

A Romney win will simply be a continuation of Obama policies, which are a continuation of the policies of past presidents. Government will grow, spending will continue, debt will rise, our liberties will be infringed upon, and the Constitution will be ignored.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

SOUND THE HORN – THE TROLLS HAVE ARRIVED.

As a wise man once said: “So?”.

We know this. As you have been told previously. Many, many times.

We feel that the other alternative is worse. Go away.

kim roy on July 19, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Hmmmm. How am I any more of a troll than the compulsive poll-humping Mittbots here?

ddrintn on July 19, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Have any of you and yours ever considered for one lone moment that perhaps people are more excited about getting rid of Obama than electing Romney?

Even after being told numerous times in various ways this exact point. And yes, most of us are aware of what Romney is. The problem is, most of us are also aware of what Obama is.

Do give that one a thought.

You and your fellow travelers are really tedious.

kim roy on July 19, 2012 at 12:04 PM

The same story also reports poll results from Montana and Virginia showing the Republicans ahead in those states; the Republican in Montana (Denny Rehberg) leads Democrat Senator Tester by 7%.

Complete story

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:17 AM

OHHHH YEAAAAH.

MontanaMmmm on July 19, 2012 at 12:09 PM

You do know how legislation becomes law, right?

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Your ignorance is worse than I believed it to be.

And thanks for proving it by trying to make your case with cites from the New York Times and the Huffington Post. I’m still laughing.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM

By the way, did you know the final Faux News poll had Bush losing to Thurston Lurch?

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Solaratov on July 19, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Maybe not, but maybe so. I’d rather not find out because as far as black swans go, that would be a pretty big one. Besides, who do you think is going to get the blame for the fallout of that? It won’t be the left. It’ll be the libertarian-minded among us.

NukeRidingCowboy on July 19, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Then I guess the “crisis”-generating fear mongerers got to you.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 12:56 PM

And thanks for proving it by trying to make your case with cites from the New York Times and the Huffington Post.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Predictable.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM

34/31/41

Sorry, Ed, that adds up to 106%. I think you probably meant 34 / 31 / 34(?) which at least gets you in rounding error range at 99%. :-)

Greg Q on July 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Then I guess the “crisis”-generating fear mongerers got to you.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 12:56 PM

That’s what they want you to think.

NukeRidingCowboy on July 19, 2012 at 1:02 PM

We feel that the other alternative is worse. Go away.

kim roy on July 19, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Let me remind you of the post to which you’re responding:

A Romney win will simply be a continuation of Obama policies, which are a continuation of the policies of past presidents. Government will grow, spending will continue, debt will rise, our liberties will be infringed upon, and the Constitution will be ignored.

You say the alternative is worse. So you realize, the alternative is a rejection of Obama policies, a rejection of establishment policies, shrinking government, spending stops and declines, debt stops, our liberties are protected, and the Constitution followed.

This, you feel, is worse????

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 1:02 PM

A Romney win will simply be a continuation of Obama policies, which are a continuation of the policies of past presidents. Government will grow, spending will continue, debt will rise, our liberties will be infringed upon, and the Constitution will be ignored.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I love how all the people who insist Romney and Obama are exactly the same all seem to only hate Romney.

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I just hope Romney picks a street fighter for VP. Just being a nice guy isn’t going to win the election for Romney. He’s fighting against the dirty rotten thug Obama who will stoop to any level to win.

jqc1970 on July 19, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I love how all the people who insist Romney and Obama are exactly the same all seem to only hate Romney.

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Who’s doing that?

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

And thanks for proving it by trying to make your case with cites from the New York Times and the Huffington Post.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Those were the only ones I could find that prove my vision is correct. Any facts that I don’t believe I will simply ignore.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Fixed.

Del Dolemonte on July 19, 2012 at 1:31 PM

In response to all the trolls that keep bringing up the Fox News Poll.

The Sample on THAT poll happened to be 42D/38R/18I/3NA?

While a +4% democratic turnout isn’t impossible, its probably as high a skew democrats can hope for in a typical competitive election. Independents however are radically under sampled in this poll, as they do NOT in any way shape or form make up less than 20% of the electorate. Seeing as Romney has historically led among independents, under sampling independents is going to skew any polling in favor of democrats.

The fact that in the same poll, majorities come out against the traditional big government platform demonstrates Obama’s real weakness right now. The only way the poll could get results like that is if that viewpoint was wildly popular among independents as was as Republicans.

WolvenOne on July 19, 2012 at 2:14 PM

I fully expect Joe Biden to get a mysterious illness if this keeps up.

Wagthatdog on July 19, 2012 at 10:42 AM

heh. Or perhaps the usual exit stage left: “He wants to spend more time with his family”.

Buttercup on July 19, 2012 at 3:38 PM

You say the alternative is worse. So you realize, the alternative is a rejection of Obama policies, a rejection of establishment policies, shrinking government, spending stops and declines, debt stops, our liberties are protected, and the Constitution followed.

This, you feel, is worse????

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Alright. I’ll bite. Who’s going to do this? That well known by 300 million people Johnson? Is that his name?

Why hasn’t he been introducing himself to the population for the last three years? Why hasn’t he been getting his name out there? He’s wasted three years of being known and NOW he wants something?

Ooooooookay!

Sorry sunshine. As much as you’d like to believe otherwise there are only two realistic winners in the election – Romney and Obama.

kim roy on July 19, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Who’s doing that?

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

You did, in the exact quote I quoted.

Did an icecream truck cruise by or something?

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Alright. I’ll bite. Who’s going to do this?

kim roy on July 19, 2012 at 5:10 PM

That wasn’t the point. I wasn’t using alternative as a person, but as an idea – as an ideology or stance. But I can tell you that Romney is NOT going to do it.

So when I say growing government, increasing spending and the debt, infringing on our liberties, and you say the alternative is worse, you are saying: shrinking government is worse; decreasing spending and the debt is worse; protecting our liberties and ending infringements upon them is worse.

You say the alternative is worse, but you aren’t even talking about an alternative. You are talking about voting for the same thing. Romney is Obama is Bush is Clinton is Bush is Reagan is Carter is Ford, is Nixon, etc.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 5:42 PM

You did, in the exact quote I quoted.

Did an icecream truck cruise by or something?

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 5:37 PM

No, I didn’t. I don’t hate Romney at all, nor did I say he’s exactly the same as Obama. I said he’ll continue Obama’s policies, which are a continuation of previous presidents as well. Perhaps you should use your brain for something other than logical fallacies.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 5:46 PM

NukeRidingCowboy on July 19, 2012 at 11:30 AM

It would be – and was – insane to raise the debt ceiling. Yes, not raising it means default. So what? It’s not going to be apocalyptic as your government and its fear-mongering mouthpieces say it would be.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Ever occurred to you that you might be the insane one? I mean they say that admitting one’s affliction is the first step to curing/ healing…oh, and btw, how many US govt decaults of that magnitude have you experienced in this or a previous life to be so confident that it wouldn ‘t be as ‘apocalyptic’ as ‘my govt says it would be’…yeah, I thought so, so maybe it woud be wiser to shut up then….you have nothing to bring to the discussion but your personal belief that a default wouldn’t be an ‘apocalyptic’ event for tne US…..yeah, well, tell you what, your belief is worth squat… hundreds of millions believe that defaulting is a big f..ing deal, and there”s not much you can do about it, now, is it…other than flap your mouth….

jimver on July 19, 2012 at 5:58 PM

Defaults,, not ‘decaults’ that is…

jimver on July 19, 2012 at 6:00 PM

No, I didn’t. I don’t hate Romney at all, nor did I say he’s exactly the same as Obama. I said he’ll continue Obama’s policies, which are a continuation of previous presidents as well. Perhaps you should use your brain for something other than logical fallacies.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 5:46 PM

So Romney will continue Obama’s policies, yet is different… how?

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 6:04 PM

So Romney will continue Obama’s policies, yet is different… how?

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 6:04 PM

The difference is minuscule. While Romney may differ in handling an issue or two, both are establishment statists. Romney is like Obama and like Bushx2 and like Clinton and like Reagan in that he’ll grow government, increase spending and ignore the Constitution. None of the presidents over at least the past 60 years, are conservative. Romney would be no different.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 6:14 PM

First, the poll is weighted to Democrats.

Second, it’s of registered voters and not likely voters, so it’s meaningless.

Third, the MSM will put a positive spin on a dog pile covered with flies if they think it will help Obama.

The MSM can live on their unicorn farms, but the reality is that likely voters have Romney in the lead. Polls using likely voters have Romney in the lead. And the MSM propgaganda campaign isn’t working.

This is Romney’s election to lose. If he picks Pawlenty or Portmant, he’s out of the race. If he picks a Rubio, Christi, DeMint, Ryan, Christi, or Jindal then he will add a force multiplier to his campaigh and seal the deal.

The race will be very close. And a Pawlenty or Portman will only cause the base to fall asleep. A Rubio, Christi, Jindal, Ryan, DeMint, or any other fire brand will propel his campaign into the statosphere.

BMF on July 19, 2012 at 6:56 PM

The difference is minuscule. While Romney may differ in handling an issue or two, both are establishment statists. Romney is like Obama and like Bushx2 and like Clinton and like Reagan in that he’ll grow government, increase spending and ignore the Constitution. None of the presidents over at least the past 60 years, are conservative. Romney would be no different.

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 6:14 PM

So then… they are the same? I think we went full circle.

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 8:06 PM

You do know how legislation becomes law, right?

Dante on July 19, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Like this?

Congressional Republicans Conspiring With Liberals Behind Closed Doors to Raise Taxes

Dirty, DIRTY RINO’s!

DannoJyd on July 20, 2012 at 11:37 AM

So Romney will continue Obama’s policies, yet is different… how?

Chuck Schick on July 19, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I’ve been asking the same question, one issue at a time, for over a month.

DannoJyd on July 20, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Comment pages: 1 2