Oh my: Ted Cruz now leads Dewhurst by five points in Texas senate primary

posted at 6:21 pm on July 12, 2012 by Allahpundit

The campaigns’ internal polls are, unsurprisingly, contradictory. Dewhurst’s has him up eight points, Cruz’s has him up nine. We need an impartial pollster (impartial as regards this race, at least) to settle this.

Advantage: Cruz.

This race is one of the most stark examples of the Tea Party movement propelling a candidate that we’ve seen to date. 40% of voters identify themselves as members of that movement and Cruz has a 71-26 advantage with them. Dewhurst leads 57-34 with non-Tea Partiers, and they are 50% of the electorate, but it’s not nearly enough to drown out Cruz’s advantage with that group.

Texas is also an exceptionally rare state where Hispanic voters might be the difference maker in a Republican primary. Cruz has a 78-19 advantage with them…

The large name recognition advantage Dewhurst has enjoyed throughout the campaign has pretty much disappeared. 85% of runoff voters have an opinion about him, and Cruz is not far behind at 81%. We frequently found in our earlier polling that Cruz was winning with voters who knew him, but that he was losing overall because of the name recognition gap. That’s not a problem anymore. Cruz’s net favorability of +31 (56/25) is better than Dewhurst’s +19 (52/33). Since our final pre primary poll Cruz’s net fav has improved by 25 points, while Dewhurst’s has declined by 17.

Weigel makes a good point that Cruz has benefited tremendously from the shifting timetable of the election. Look again at the parity in those name-recognition numbers. If the primary had been held four and a half months ago, as was originally scheduled, the gap would have been huge and Cruz probably would have been dead in the water. As it is, behold the key data point:

That’s a lot of enthusiasm. His support among Hispanic Republicans is remarkable too, so much so that I’d bet if he pulls the upset and eventually moves on to the Senate, the media’s new favorite storyline will be “Is Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio the great Latino hope for Republicans?” That’s unfair to both of them, but if the press wants to run free ads for the GOP about two terrifically charismatic young conservative pols who happen to belong to an increasingly coveted demographic, I ain’t going to stop ‘em.

Exit question: If Cruz wins, is this the biggest tea-party victory yet? Arguably Mike Lee’s and Richard Mourdock’s wins are bigger because each came at the expense of a longtime Senate incumbent, but Cruz defeating the preferred candidate of Rick Perry and the Texas GOP establishment in the most famously conservative state in America would be epic.

Update: And here comes the Club for Growth with a $1.5 million ad buy attacking Dewhurst three weeks out from election day.


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I’ll be voting in six of the seven primary election runoffs.

Go Cruz. It’s going to happen. Oh, and vote for John Devine in the Supreme Court runoff, everybody.

TexasDan on July 12, 2012 at 9:49 PM

The best thing about a Cruz win would be the message sent to Cronyn.
I want Cronyn out.

Pecos on July 12, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Maybe not the best, but for sure one of the cherries in the bowl.

TexasDan on July 12, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Oh, and vote for John Devine in the Supreme Court runoff, everybody.

TexasDan on July 12, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I’m bumping this for myself.

TexasDan on July 12, 2012 at 9:53 PM

So I guess PPP is cool now, at least for a few minutes here.

Mark1971 on July 12, 2012 at 6:39 PM

No, no, no, no…..you don’t seem to understand. Because it’s PPP, Cruz is probably up by 12-14.

See how this works?

98ZJUSMC on July 12, 2012 at 9:55 PM

I don’t get it. The Tea Party is the group that rose to spearhead the opposition to Obama’s radical proposals, and the Tea Party is the driving force behind the conservative resurgence. Further, when we are bending over backwards to attract Hispanics, even going so far as to suggest nominating the green Rubio, why wouldn’t we want another Hispanic on our side in the senate? It’s insane that Perry, who pretended to be the Tea Partier’s choice, would oppose Cruz. Utterly crazy, and incomprehensible. And I still like Perry!

anotherJoe on July 12, 2012 at 10:02 PM

As an establishment Republican, I wholeheartedly support Cruz. He has tons of friends on the DC cocktail circuit from his time in Washington.

AngusMc on July 12, 2012 at 10:07 PM

No, no, no, no…..you don’t seem to understand. Because it’s PPP, Cruz is probably up by 12-14.

See how this works?

98ZJUSMC on July 12, 2012 at 9:55 PM

PPP’s a good pollster when their credibility is on the line. They weren’t too far off in the Walker recall, nailed all of the Wisconsin Senator recall elections, and did as well as any other major pollster in 2010.

They do their hack work in the summer months then gradually adjust their voter screens toward reality as election day approaches.

In this case, I’d bet pretty heavily on them being accurate within a couple points either way. There’s not much of an agenda for them to push here.

LukeinNE on July 12, 2012 at 10:12 PM

So I guess PPP is cool now, at least for a few minutes here.

Mark1971 on July 12, 2012 at 6:39 PM

No, no, no, no…..you don’t seem to understand. Because it’s PPP, Cruz is probably up by 12-14.

See how this works?

98ZJUSMC on July 12, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Who cares who it is. Cruz was a non entity 6 months ago. Dewhurst got endorsements from every big shot in Texas + the whole senate passed around a “We hate Cruz” petition + Perry… And here Cruz is ahead in a poll right before the election. It’s not about PPP. No one gives a dang about PPP.

BoxHead1 on July 12, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Who cares who it is = who cares who which of the big firms ran the poll.

BoxHead1 on July 12, 2012 at 10:18 PM

who which

BoxHead1 on July 12, 2012 at 10:19 PM

As an establishment Republican, I wholeheartedly support Cruz. He has tons of friends on the DC cocktail circuit from his time in Washington.

AngusMc on July 12, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Ha.

He’s seemingly the better choice but it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he came out with Dream Act+ in the new session.

CorporatePiggy on July 12, 2012 at 10:20 PM

anotherJoe on July 12, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Because all the credit that Perry likes to take really goes to Dewhurst. He’s massively in debt to him politically. That is why he supports him.

lizzie beth on July 12, 2012 at 11:20 PM

Ya’ll can give credit to Sarah Palin all you want. Jim Demint is the reason that Ted Cruz is at this point. He is a tireless conservative, wish there were more like him.

jazzuscounty on July 12, 2012 at 11:29 PM

jazzuscounty on July 12, 2012 at 11:29 PM

There were several people that meant more than SP, though she helps, of course, but she was fairly late to the party. He was already surging and there was a very high livelihood of a runoff already when she endorsed.

The Pauls matter a lot in parts of the state, and they were behind him very early. Mark Levin, Sean Hannity & Hugh Hewitt started promoting Cruz very early on, as well. All which gave him the ability to fund raise nationally. And then most of the local Tea Party groups in the state were solidly behind Cruz pretty early.

lizzie beth on July 12, 2012 at 11:38 PM

3 Votes for Cruz here. The Run-off will be Spawn’s first vote ever.

annoyinglittletwerp on July 13, 2012 at 12:10 AM

Viva Cuba libre!

Go Cruz!

Schadenfreude on July 13, 2012 at 1:11 AM

Ya’ll can give credit to Sarah Palin all you want. Jim Demint is the reason that Ted Cruz is at this point. He is a tireless conservative, wish there were more like him.

jazzuscounty on July 12, 2012 at 11:29 PM

sure sure, SPs endorsement didn’t help Cruz expand his profile and raise money /

Jim DeMint is great but please… let’s put it this way; when SP endorsed Cruz, he was very very very very happy.

BoxHead1 on July 13, 2012 at 1:35 AM

Jim DeMint is great but please… let’s put it this way; when SP endorsed Cruz, he was very very very very happy.

BoxHead1 on July 13, 2012 at 1:35 AM

SP has a voice people respond to. It took a lot to get her name recognition

DeMint is a favorite of mine too, but he didnt have the publicity of a national campaign, and a national network job

On this Palin deserves full creditL she ran with McCain and today, McCain has lost currency and Palin still retains great trust for her opinion. Palin stuck up for the Tea Party in the beginning when others fled

I would vote DeMint in a heartbeat, regardless of party, because he has proven party is not why he is there. There are few in his category

What joy if tea party wins

entagor on July 13, 2012 at 2:11 AM

Is Dewhurst a big corruptocrat or something? Not trying to be a moby here – are there any good sites or articles that go into the race in more detail? Thanks in advance.

beancounter on July 12, 2012 at 6:49 PM

The Tea Party put on a big Senate debate. Dewhurst did not show, nor did Craig James. At the state GOP convention, it was easily 90-10 Cruz. All of Dewhurst’s financial backers are people who have business before the state senate.

I think the guy would be acceptable but Cruz is so much better.

Odysseus on July 13, 2012 at 7:12 AM

Any of you Texans who live in Collin or Dallas County and want to help Cruz and other conservative candidates in the runoff, go to the North Texas Tea Party site. We are soliciting volunteers to hand out fliers at the polling places. I did it during the primary. It is easy.

Odysseus on July 13, 2012 at 7:15 AM

I heard Dewhurst on KSEV a week or so ago. He essentially blamed half the legislation that he supposedly could not get through on the democrats and the “blocker bill” (a.k.a. Rosebush Bill). What he FAILED to mention is that as Lt. Governor, HE was the person responsible for allowing the Rosebush Bill/Blocker bill to begin with. He conveniently neglected to mention that point during the interview. In the rare positive ads he’s run, he’s touted his “accomplishments”…what he failed to mention was that in some of those “accomplishments”, he had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the table…

Dewhurst is only marginally more conservative than Kay Barely Republican.

golfer1 on July 13, 2012 at 7:57 AM

Dewhurst is a pander monkey and it is funny to see him being challenged by a conservative hispanic since he has protected our sanctuary city policies in Texas for all these years. Cruz’s Supreme Court defense of the Texas death penalty againt the efforts of Mexico and the UN to shield a couple of illegal aliens in a horrific Houston case was just awesome.

Go Cruz.

DanMan on July 13, 2012 at 8:07 AM

DanMan, you’re right – the Ertman-Pena murders were horrific. Cruz helped us stand our (Texas’) ground against the World Court, Mexico, etc. He got my vote after that.

Sort of like how the Culberson Amendment helped get Judge William Wayne Justice out of our lives with respect to our prisons. Culberson has my support whenever he needs it…

golfer1 on July 13, 2012 at 8:28 AM

Perry is backing Dewhurst because Perry wants to be the President of the Republic of Texas.
Go Cruz !!!!!!

johnny reb on July 13, 2012 at 12:52 PM

PPP is bogus. Dewhurst wins this..you know that don’t you?

Redford on July 31, 2012 at 5:04 PM

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