Reuters poll as reliable as you’d expect

posted at 8:41 am on July 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

At least Reuters/Ipsos was more successful than the WaPo/ABC poll yesterday.  The latter had a D+9 sample but could only muster a tie between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, whereas the former takes a D+5 sample (D+4 when counting leaners) and transforms it into a six-point lead for Obama:

President Barack Obama expanded his lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney to 6 percentage points in the White House race this month as voters became slightly more optimistic about the economy, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Tuesday.

Four months before the November 6 election, Obama leads Romney among registered voters 49 percent to 43 percent. In June, Obama held a slim 1-point lead over the former Massachusetts governor.

Obama’s improved standing was fueled in part by a slight rise in optimism about the future, with the number of Americans who think the country is on the wrong track dropping 5 percentage points to 58 percent.

People became more optimistic about the economy?  Pray tell, when did that happen?  The NFIB shows small-business confidence dropping to eight-month lows, retail sales numbers have slid significantly in the past couple of months, and we’ve had three straight disappointments in monthly jobs reports. Just two weeks ago, Gallup found economic confidence eroding — and eroding significantly, just the opposite of what Reuters/Ipsos reports.

What might the source of this optimism be?  The sample maybe the issue here, but it’s not as bad as the WaPo/ABC poll, as noted above.  While a D+5 turnout would be a bit of a surprise in this cycle, it’s not entirely out of the question.  The ratios are odd, however; in the registered-voter subsample (where the Obama lead is found), the D/R/I is 31/26/43.  When adding in leaners, it’s 46/42/13 (rounding causes the 101%).  The 2008 wave election for Democrats produced an actual D/R/I of 39/32/29, while in 2010 it was 35/35/30.  In neither case did Republicans only comprise 26% of the electorate, but in neither case did Democrats only comprise 31%, too.

The Reuters results look like just bad sampling of another sort, creating the outlier effect into which most Reuters/Ipsos polls belong.  That’s further confirmed by a new Quinnipiac poll which sees the race as a virtual tie despite having an almost identical D/R/I of 31/27/36:

Driven by a yawning marriage gap, and a 2-1 lead among single women, President Barack Obama gets 46 percent of American voters to 43 percent for Gov. Mitt Romney, largely on the support of singles, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Married voters back Romney 51 – 38 percent, while unmarried voters back President Obama 54 – 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Among married voters, Romney leads 54 – 35 percent among men and 49 – 42 percent among women. Among single voters, Obama leads 47 – 38 percent among men and 60 – 31 percent among women.

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts gets a higher job approval rating, 46 – 34 percent, than the president, who logs a negative 45 – 49 percent score.

In this case, respondents are hardly confident in the economy or Obama’s stewardship of it:

American voters disapprove 55 – 40 percent of the way Obama is handling the economy, but split 45 – 46 percent on whether Obama or Romney would do a better job on the economy. Romney would be better for their own economic future, 47 percent say, while 44 percent pick Obama. By a 50 – 44 percent margin, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Obama’s plans for the economy, compared to 46 – 40 percent unfavorable for Romney.

Just as in yesterday’s WaPo/ABC poll, Obama’s immigration pander did no good; he’s underwater on immigration by a wide margin, 39/52.  The ObamaCare legal victory has not changed its status as a political albatross, either, with Obama getting a 43/52 on health care.  Probably the most worrisome for Obama is that he is now being perceived negatively, with a 45/48 favorability rating — perhaps the result of his angry attacks on Romney while avoiding the risk of putting an agenda forward for a second term.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

…no more polls!

KOOLAID2 on July 11, 2012 at 8:43 AM

…if JugEars is not in the single digits…I can’t look at the poll!

KOOLAID2 on July 11, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Liberal pollsters seem to be mathmatically-challenged. They always have trouble selecting an even sampling.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:45 AM

…angry mike?

KOOLAID2 on July 11, 2012 at 8:45 AM

crayons…

cmsinaz on July 11, 2012 at 8:46 AM

I took a poll in my house the other night.

Obama is goin’ down.

Electrongod on July 11, 2012 at 8:46 AM

similar to the Field poll here in Calif.showing we approve of the Train to Nowhere.Most of the sampling is done in L.A. S.F. and Beserkeley.

jeffinsjvca on July 11, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Obama is that he is now being perceived negatively, with a 45/48 favorability rating

racists pollees

cmsinaz on July 11, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Electrongod on July 11, 2012 at 8:46 AM

heh

cmsinaz on July 11, 2012 at 8:47 AM

but…Gallup has duhwhon’s approval at 44%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Go figure.

ChicagoBlues on July 11, 2012 at 8:48 AM

cmsinaz on July 11, 2012 at 8:47 AM

After perfesser libfreee banned himself yesterday, someone had to say it.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:49 AM

The next few months will be a war…between Obama’s soc-called “Oratory skillz” and his petulant personality. I believe Gallup’s numbers are actually closest as to what is really going on

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:51 AM

After perfesser libfreee banned himself yesterday

Really? Which thread? I usually don’t see Libby when deh newz ain’t perfect for Barry.

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 8:51 AM

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 8:51 AM

The Allen West Thread, second page, left column.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:52 AM

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:49 AM

heard about that…

cmsinaz on July 11, 2012 at 8:52 AM

It’s easy to feel optimistic about the economy you are encouraged to go on SSI, SSDI, etc, and you get to keep paying your cable bill and smart phone bill.

Wouldn’t be so encouraged if they were “hungry”.

LtGenRob on July 11, 2012 at 8:54 AM

You will be given the results we want you to have and you will shut your face.

Bishop on July 11, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Right before the election, HA should run a list of Top 10 Skewered Polls of the 2012 Election Cycle, based on the samplings from the final pre-election polls, the only ones that have to be close to accurate because of the actual vote.

You would think out of the 10 worst polls, at least one would be skewered so the sample tilts in Romney’s favor. My guess is you’d be wrong, and there won’t be a single poll this cycle where the D/R/I sample over-represents the R part in any way close to the polls which routinely over-sample the D’s.

jon1979 on July 11, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Obama’s improved standing was fueled in part by a slight rise in optimism about the future…

In regards to what, whether or not McDonald’s is going to add extra Secret Sauce to their Big Macs?!!! This sure couldn’t have been optimism in regards to the economy!

pilamaye on July 11, 2012 at 8:55 AM

So Bammy is relying on single women, Blacks and Hispanics to win this for him? Good luck with that.

eyedoc on July 11, 2012 at 8:57 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Not when we look at the stilted sampling, no.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:59 AM

CRAP-ALOOZA!!!!

Communist Democrat pollsters like Reuters, CNN, AP, CBS, WAPO, USATODAY, NBC, NYTimes, Newsweek, Time, PPP…….

…..all shilling for the Blessed Destroyer of the United States.

ALL HAIL THE DOTUS!!!

PappyD61 on July 11, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Our own US lamestream media needs help from a liberal British news organization to further prop up this miserable excuse for a President. How pathetic can you get?

OneVision on July 11, 2012 at 9:01 AM

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 8:51 AM

The Allen West Thread, second page, left column.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I hope the HotAir staff did not accede to his request to be dropped. I liked having him around for comic relief.

swinia sutki on July 11, 2012 at 9:02 AM

The majority of the media polls, and particularly Reuters, are mathematical garbage designed to influence and not inform. Prepare to see many more of these Obama boosting polls from the lying left wing media.

rplat on July 11, 2012 at 9:03 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Not when we look at the stilted sampling, no.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I think Mitt will be leading in the one they take on November 6th.

swinia sutki on July 11, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Public pollsters: The new used car salesmen?

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Somewhat, though these recent sampling errors have been extreme enough I’m getting suspicious. I tend to regard Gallup as reasonably trustworthy; we’ll see what they say the next time they do a poll.

Doomberg on July 11, 2012 at 9:04 AM

…let’s take a poll right here…right now on JugEars likeability!

KOOLAID2 on July 11, 2012 at 9:05 AM

swinia sutki on July 11, 2012 at 9:02 AM

A Liberal Troll used Hornet Sting and my real names a few years ago, and we’re still around.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 9:06 AM

After perfesser libfreee banned himself yesterday, someone had to say it.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Wow KJ, missed that. Flying my Libtard flag at half-mast today.

hillsoftx on July 11, 2012 at 9:09 AM

KOOLAID2
Sorry, late to the party…… How can anyone believe any of the lib leaning polls????….. These morons will have the head moron up with by 10 points on election morning, and he’ll lose by a landslide, that’s right landslide …….I think many independent’s will say they will vote for “King Putt” just so they are not labeled racists, just my opinion ………..
Morning all……..;)

angrymike on July 11, 2012 at 9:12 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Not really. Rasmussen was pretty accurate in 2008, and they’re the only one polling Likely Voters (which is the most accurate). Even in heavily-slanted Dem polls, Obama can’t reach 50%. That’s a bad sign for an incumbent.

TarheelBen on July 11, 2012 at 9:13 AM

The pro-Obama MSM are going to pull out all the stops in the months leading up to the elections. Their meltdown on the night of November 6th will be enjoyable to watch.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I give these polls the same attention I give most news coming from liberal outlets…none. Trying to figure out in just which way they’ve decided to play games with us has become tiresome, so have decided to discount all polls all the time. I’ll just go vote. I will tell everyone I come in contact with to go vote. And may the devil take the hindmost.

jakev on July 11, 2012 at 9:13 AM

…let’s take a poll right here…right now on JugEars likeability!

KOOLAID2 on July 11, 2012 at 9:05 AM

As long as your scale starts at zero and goes to negative 100.

I’ll take likability, Alex for minus 100.

VietVet_Dave on July 11, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Obama leads 47 – 38 percent among men and 60 – 31 percent among women.

Let’s call it for what it is; public sector working women, on every level, are saving his arse in these polls.

Just read and look at this breakdown.

Women’s Employment During the Recovery

Women are nearly 50 percent more likely to work in the public sector than are men with 18.2 percent of employed women working in public sector jobs. Despite this high concentration in a heavily unionized sector — 36.2 percent of those working in the public sector are members of unions compared to 6.9 percent of those in the private sector — women are less likely to belong to a union than are men. In 2010, 11.1 percent of women were union members, compared to 12.6 percent of men.

Roughly 20%, or 14 million women. And that’s without counting satellite jobs connected to the public sector.

So, 0′s only in the polling game because:

1. More women are in the workforce today as the main income, for themselves or their family, and-

2. Working public sector. Teachers, administrators, etc…

Couple that with the healthcare sector, and he has, at best, 20% of white male voters, half union, half progs.

It also explains why he does so little for black males. A lot of his single women in centralized blue states are or have been in relationships with black males where they, the woman, was footing the bill, and in many cases, are now taking care of the kids. So, instead of helping the deadbeats, Barry stepped into the father role through federal programs.

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 9:14 AM

KOOLAID2
I would think that poll MIGHT be a little tainted, what do we have, 4 trolls left..???????

angrymike on July 11, 2012 at 9:14 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

He also leads in the latest Zogby (non-Interactive) poll.

sentinelrules on July 11, 2012 at 9:16 AM

A Liberal Troll used Hornet Sting and my real names a few years ago, and we’re still around.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 9:06 AM

How in hell did that happen? I don’t think I’d be threatened if my real name got out there as I’m no one of consequence, but still…

swinia sutki on July 11, 2012 at 9:17 AM

So Bammy is relying on single women, Blacks and Hispanics to win this for him? Good luck with that.

eyedoc on July 11, 2012 at 8:57 AM

15.5%, 14%, 11% unemployment rate respectively…agreed, good luck.

hillsoftx on July 11, 2012 at 9:17 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

He leads in Gallup tracking frequently.

Jon0815 on July 11, 2012 at 9:17 AM

You have to understand how these things work. They didn’t work their asses off to very carefully and scientifically get a fair sample group, and then go out and randomly toss in a couple of hundred more Democrats.

When a sampling is this far off, it’s because whatever method they used to select the entire pool is SKEWED. In other words, the Democrats in the sample group will be a bit more liberal than average Democrats; and the independants and Republicans will be even further to the left in comparison to average independants and Republicans.

logis on July 11, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Kingsjester
Libfreeorpuke got the hammer? ????? Well thank you to the moderator who did that…….;)

angrymike on July 11, 2012 at 9:21 AM

A sample with 46% Dems is a joke. The pollster should be fired.

They try to argue that the difference is small D+5 but when you take away Indies (who are breaking from Romney, see WaPo poll) you are effectively reducing voters who generally prefer Romney.

Any serious poll should be 34/34/32. Gallup and Rasmussen are gold standard.

If this poll were to be re-weighted with 34/34/32. Romney would lead 48-42. And still that is only RVs not LVs.

kevinkristy on July 11, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I wonder if they just poll the sample in question–ie “likely voters” or “registered voters” or “adults” and then break down their sample into D/R/I after the fact??? It would make sense that you’d have a wide variability within your sample of D/R/I. The proportion would come closer to the actual population breakdown as the sample size grew larger. I certainly hope they don’t poll D’s, then R’s, then I’s. The grouping into voting blocs should be the first thing that is done once the sample is taken but what the hell do I know…

ted c on July 11, 2012 at 9:24 AM

are we all in italics these days?? koo koo ka choo….

ted c on July 11, 2012 at 9:24 AM

emphasis on

emphasis off

ted c on July 11, 2012 at 9:25 AM

angrymike on July 11, 2012 at 9:21 AM

He gave it to himself in the West thread yesterday. First words out of its mouth were “you Hot Gassers only like him because he’s black”.

Needless to say, that was a minority opinion around here and he was pretty much pummeled. He took his ball and went home… but for some reason nobody missed it.

VietVet_Dave on July 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

swinia sutki on July 11, 2012 at 9:17 AM

He’s a computer guy, who traced a bunch of us to FB.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Vietvet_Dave
ya I just read it, I call BS…….that moron will be back, you know they just lie about everything, so…… I would love to see Mr West as VP……..Just thinking about a VP with brains and balls……..;)

angrymike on July 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Libfree was a sham. It wasn’t a black guy. It was a white girl, (or maybe college-age male), who was most likely a postgrad working as a TA somewhere in Northern VA.

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM

The media is using polls for nothing but propoganda. There has always been a certain amount of that, but this year they don’t seem to care about accuracy at all. Sometimes their samples (and results) get better closer to the election and they get worried about their reputations, but I suspect this year they’ll be all-in for Obama until the very end.

DRayRaven on July 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM

What an impressive display of insight, cultural knowledge and math! So many polling experts, it’s hard to believe that Reuters, WaPo and Gallup aren’t here in the shadows gathering all this anecdotal spittle and figuring out how to incorporate it in to their statistical models.

This pol that upsets me is wrong! This poll that I like is right!

I’m pretty sure you weirdos can keep this up all summer and I am looking forward to it!

tommyhawk on July 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM
“you Hot Gassers only like him because he’s black”.

That’s a paraphrase from libtard… not who libtard is/was.

VietVet_Dave on July 11, 2012 at 9:42 AM

DRayRaven on July 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Quite, recall their accuracy in Speaker Pelosi maintaining her use of Air Farce III in 2010…..

harlekwin15 on July 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Okay so he leads in this poll as far as votes. But anyone care to explain to me why these people in this poll disapprove of the job Obama is doing and think the country is off on the wrong track but would still vote for him?

Total Approve 48% Total Disapprove 47%

Right Direction 36% Wrong Track 58%

Deanna on July 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

tommyhawk on July 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

How’d that smarm work out for you in 2010 champ?

harlekwin15 on July 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

This isn’t the first time Ed has exposed fatal flaws in a Reuters poll.

Remember back in March when Reuters polled a universe of 51% Dems to give Obozo a 50% approval rating? As Ed succintly observed back then: “And Reuters needs to go back to polling school.”

OneVision on July 11, 2012 at 9:45 AM

liberal media makes me want to puke…..excuse me

crosshugger on July 11, 2012 at 9:46 AM

http://plasticsnews.com/headlines2.html?id=25695

The DOTUS strikes again….

….through his Consumer Products Safety commission, and trial lawyers.

MIAMI, OKLA. (June 13, 10:15 a.m. ET) — Plastic fuel-can molder Blitz USA Inc. will shut operations after unsuccessfully trying to reorganize under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since Nov. 9, according to a company statement issued June 12.

The July 31 shutdown will affect 117 employees at Blitz’s manufacturing plant in Miami, Okla.

The firm plans to liquidate all assets either en masse or piecemeal, external affairs manager Amanda Emerson said in a telephone interview.

“We appreciate the support of our employees and their families in their efforts to reorganize and develop a viable business plan,” said Blitz President Rocky Flick, according to an article in the Joplin (Missouri) Globe. “Unfortunately, we were not able to address the costs of the increased litigation associated with our fuel-containment products.

In April, Blitz sold its F3Brands LLC business, a major in oil drains and other associated auto products, in a bankruptcy auction sale to Hopkins Manufacturing Corp. of Emporia, Kan. Court documents stated Blitz netted $14.6 million from the sale, which it applied to secured debt.

Blitz has been facing a storm of lawsuits blaming its products for consumer injuries caused by fires. The firm spent some $30 million defending itself in product liability suits and owes $3.5 million in legal fees, Blitz reported in court documents.

Blitz’s decision to sell its assets is subject to approval by bankruptcy court. It sought Chapter 11 protection in Delaware. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., a major retailer of Blitz gas cans, also faces lawsuits.

Blitz has been the dominant producer of plastic gas cans in the United States and claimed 75 percent of the market.

Other manufacturers face similar uncertainty — putting the industry’s ability to meet the typical spike in demand driven by storms in serious jeopardy,” Blitz stated in a news release.

In the week of June 4 the Portable Fuel Container Manufacturers Association began alerting consumers in hurricane-prone states of a potential product shortage, which increases public safety risk. In times of disaster, consumers rely on portable fuel supplies to operate electricity generators, vehicles, chain saws and other relief equipment.

PFCMA’s legal office is in Sacramento, Calif.

PFCMA has said congressional intervention is needed to stabilize the business environment so PFCMA group members can continue supplying the products necessary for safely transporting and storing gasoline and diesel fuel.

While it is now too late to save Blitz, adoption of mandatory safety standards could convince others to invest in expanded operations,” the Blitz news release stated.

PFCMA has criticized the U.S. Consumer Products Safety Commission for twice refusing to mandate fuel-can safety standards because it claims that harmful incidences were the result of misuse of the fuel cans rather than a product issue.

Fuel-can producers have adopted voluntarily standards developed by the American Society for Testing and Materials since the 1980s. The standards include container stability and heat resistance, openings and closings, filling and pouring, drop strength, permeability and cautionary labeling.

Labeling, for example, states that gasoline should never be used to start or accelerate a fire. Much litigation resulted from such misuse of the fuel in the containers.

U.S. consumers buy more than 15 million portable fuel cans each year, but that number rises by 30 percent when hurricanes make landfall.

“If gas cans aren’t available, disaster victims will still be transporting and storing fuel, but at much greater risk to themselves and everyone around them,” Blitz stated.

Blitz President and CEO Rocky Flick said the sale process for the Miami assets could take three months.

Other PFCMA members include Midwest Can Co. of Melrose Park, Ill.; No-Spill Inc. of Lenexa, Kan.; Scepter Corp. of Scarborough, Ontario; and the Plastics Group Inc. of Willowbrook, Ill.

Blitz was very good at what they did,” said Tom Cray, president of No-Spill. “The legal system is what brought them down. Blitz exported around the world and only here [in the United States] were there lawsuits.”

He and his policies just keep on giving……EVERY SINGLE DAY.

PappyD61 on July 11, 2012 at 9:47 AM

“Liars figure, and figures lie.”

JFS61 on July 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I’m glad to say that *I* don’t have a single Obamarx friend or relative that *I* know of!!! I drew that line years ago.

DanaSmiles on July 11, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I’m pretty sure you weirdos can keep this up all summer and I am looking forward to it!

tommyhawk on July 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

You’re living in your Mom’s Basement, aren’t you?

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 9:50 AM

RCP needs to add ‘Demo’ column to their aggregate list, i.e. D+9, D+5, D+2.

kevinkristy on July 11, 2012 at 9:57 AM

It doesn’t worry anyone that outside of Rasmussen, Romney never leads in any poll?

gumbyandpokey on July 11, 2012 at 8:58 AM

You’re Boring.

Oh, and your posts insult the memory of Art Clokey.

Del Dolemonte on July 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM

If dropping people off of the rolls works for unemployment reporting, why not do the same for poll sampling?

No one will notice.

Then, when the Preeezy loses, they can all scream that this could not have happened without the Republicans STEALING the election.

Hey, maybe it will have a positive effect. Maybe next time they will be the ones demanding voter ID.

Maybe.

Droopy on July 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM

This is all playing out like 2008 again. Every time we get a bad poll we find ways to dismiss it. There’s just no way people could elect Obama again. We can’t be in denial. Obama is winning.

Mark1971 on July 11, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Libfree was a sham. It wasn’t a black guy. It was a white girl, (or maybe college-age male), who was most likely a postgrad working as a TA somewhere in Northern VA.

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM

No, HumpBot posted a link to libfreeordie’s Twit page. Showed his picture. He’s black all right. And rather young looking. That explains volumes.

libfree then asked the mod on duty (Allah) to remove the personal info in his profile and then said he was outta here. Allah complied with his request but never actually lowered the ban hammer.

Allah also reminded us that “outing” someone in such a fashion is a bannable offense here. I know they ban folks at Democrat Underground for doing that stuff too.

Del Dolemonte on July 11, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The demographics are my first stop when reviewing polls and invariably these polls are always (read: always) weighted in favor of Democrats/Liberals. Compounding the problem is most samplings are simply random adults – not likely voters or even registered voters. Or worse, a mixed bag of all three.

In short, these polls are little more than sloppy agitprop.

I find the comment section of most any online news forum to be a far more accurate gauge of public opinion. And currently, Obama & Co. will be BBQ’d by an exhausted and angry electorate come November.

locomotivebreath1901 on July 11, 2012 at 10:16 AM

You can expect the usual MSM suspects to produce “Obama is ahead” polls right up to election day.

GarandFan on July 11, 2012 at 10:19 AM

You can expect the usual MSM suspects to produce “Obama is ahead” polls right up to election day.

GarandFan on July 11, 2012 at 10:19 AM

This is what we were all saying in 2008.

Mark1971 on July 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM
“you Hot Gassers only like him because he’s black”.

That’s a paraphrase from libtard… not who libtard is/was.

VietVet_Dave on July 11, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I know. Lib played this game of first being female, then a male, than a black male who taught African-American studies somewhere in Northern VA. The responses, the tone, was not male, no matter how metrosexual. Lib conversed like a woman.

So I’m either supposed to believe some very fem black male, teaching AA studies, decided to immerse themselves in HA, or it was a postgrad white chick involved in NVA education but not directly AA Studies, who had time on their hands and was pointed to HA by a prog site. The odds of the latter are much better.

Lib was terrible at stating points. I have, and have been, friends with many college black males, who work in education, psychiatry, the arts, etc…they can stand their ground and argue a point. Lib never could.

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I’d like to see the results of this poll of Americans:

“Will you be influenced by unsound polls?”

I know America includes around 20 to 30 percent who are deceived out of their minds so maybe they should not be included. Ah, what the heck, go ahead.

sdbatboy on July 11, 2012 at 10:30 AM

GarandFan on July 11, 2012 at 10:19 AM

The hilarious thing is that the usual Axelturf suspects think these polls are swaying many at all….

the credibility of the demonizers of Congress the M$M stands at 21-26%, the object of their fifteen minutes of daily hate Congress is less than 10 points lower…..

they can keep sermonizing amongst their faithful but the majority of hte Marxist tent revival seems to be running for the exits to go to the bluegrass festival and moonshine across the street….

harlekwin15 on July 11, 2012 at 10:30 AM

No, HumpBot posted a link to libfreeordie’s Twit page. Showed his picture. He’s black all right. And rather young looking. That explains volumes.

Rather young would explain it then.

If Lib was actually involved with a college-level AA studies program, that’s amazing.

budfox on July 11, 2012 at 10:31 AM

This is what we were all saying in 2008.

Mark1971 on July 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM

No it is not, I challenge you to go back and find anyone that thought we had a slam dunk in ’08.

After Juan Queeg suspended his campaign the second time we knew it was over.

harlekwin15 on July 11, 2012 at 10:32 AM

angrymike on July 11, 2012 at 9:14 AM

… the termitesthey are waiting in the woodwork mikey!

KOOLAID2 on July 11, 2012 at 10:38 AM

You can expect the usual MSM suspects to produce “Obama is ahead” polls right up to election day.

GarandFan on July 11, 2012 at 10:19 AM

This is what we were all saying in 2008.

Mark1971 on July 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM

You seem to be missing the huge difference here.

In 2008 O’bama was an unknown. Nobody knew what he would “do” as President, only what he said what he would “do” as President.

This is now 2012. And America’s had almost 4 years to see what he has “done” as President.

And they don’t like what they have seen in those almost 4 years.

Del Dolemonte on July 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

The poll-rigging is getting downright desperate.

WannabeAnglican on July 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Reuters probably neglected to note their poll was conducted in France.

BKeyser on July 11, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Polls, Polls, 5 cents a quart
the more you eat the more you toot,
the more you toot the better you feel,
eat Polls at every meal!
Sing to the tune of ‘Whistling past the graveyard.”

Herb on July 11, 2012 at 11:37 AM

At least Reuters/Ipsos was more successful than the WaPo/ABC poll yesterday. The latter had a D+9 sample but could only muster a tie between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, whereas the former takes a D+5 sample (D+4 when counting leaners) and transforms it into a six-point lead for Obama:

I’m familiar with the Bradley Effect in polling, but is there an official term for deliberately slanted polling, other than propaganda?

Has anyone done a study to determine if what is called the Bradley Effect might be caused deliberately biased polling?

farsighted on July 11, 2012 at 11:46 AM

I see the polling numbers and understand the bias, but the problem that I have is that the independents are going to determine this election (as always). With 43% being the indie number, it still gives Obama the edge. I would interpret that as a majority indies (not overwhelmingly) are still with the President.

djaymick on July 11, 2012 at 12:54 PM

No matter the poll, people lie to the pollsters in 2012, like never before in history.

Schadenfreude on July 11, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Barry has a big advantage with single women, often with kids and no mates. They are the Julia.

bayview on July 11, 2012 at 1:40 PM

After perfesser libfreee banned himself yesterday, someone had to say it.

kingsjester on July 11, 2012 at 8:49 AM

noo, lobotomyforfree banned, what happened, I wasn’t on yesterday…

jimver on July 11, 2012 at 1:59 PM

No matter the poll, people lie to the pollsters in 2012, like never before in history.

Schadenfreude on July 11, 2012 at 1:20 PM

and maybe this is not a bad thing, confuse the pollsters that is, maybe this is going to be the Republican October surprise, that would translate in a victory for our side in nov :)

jimver on July 11, 2012 at 2:01 PM