WaPo/ABC poll shows a dead heat …

posted at 8:41 am on July 10, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In 2008, Barack Obama won the national popular vote by seven points in a turnout where Democrats outvoted Republicans by … seven points. According to a new poll by the Washington Post and ABC News, if Democrats could beat Republicans by nine points in voter turnout this year, Obama might just tie Mitt Romney:

A pair of tepid jobs reports, landmark Supreme Court decisions on health-care and immigration laws, and an unprecedented barrage of negative ads have shaped the opening months of the fall presidential campaign. The impact on the horse race: virtually none.

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remain in a deadlocked contest, tied at 47 percent among registered voters and basically where they stood in late May.

The new numbers reflect a stubborn constancy: Only twice in 13 surveys over more than a year has either candidate held a lead exceeding the poll’s margin of sampling error. Now, the campaign appears destined to remain extremely close in the final four months before Election Day.

Only if the D/R/I in the vote matches that of this poll sample.  Readers have to trek around a bit to find it, but the D/R/I in this sample is 33/24/36.  In 2008, the split was 39/32/29, and in the 2010 midterms it was 35/35/30, both figures from CNN’s exit polls.  In this case, we have a split that’s wider than the Democratic wave election of 2008, and it can only produce a tie for Obama among registered voters.  That doesn’t sound very promising for Obama, unless one believes that we’re about to see a massive wave election for Democrats that will outdo the 2008 election.

With that sample tilt in mind, some of the down-survey questions are of interest.  For instance, 43% of the respondents think that Obama’s handling of the economy is a good reason to vote against him, while only 36% think it’s a reason to support Obama.  On the Bain attacks, though, 50% think it’s not relevant to the choice, and the rest are split into a virtual tie, with 24% believing it’s a reason to oppose Romney and 23% believing it’s a reason to support him.  Did I mention that this sample has a D+9 tilt?  I believe I did.  Looks like the Bain attacks aren’t even convincing the Obama choir.

Also, on the issues, the split isn’t helping Obama much.  He gets a 47/49 for an overall approval rating, but that drops to 44/54 on the economy.  Despite his big win on ObamaCare two weeks ago (before this survey took place), his approval rating on health care is only 41/52.  On immigration, despite his attempt to pander to Hispanics last month, it’s a dismal 38/52.

Did I mention that this poll has a D+9 split?  I believe I did.  If Obama can’t get above water on approval ratings or break out of a tie with Romney in a sample this friendly, what will happen when Obama has to go head-to-head with Romney in a turnout model that’s closer to 2010 than 2008?  I don’t think it’s as close as the Post thinks, nor do I think it’s going to “remain extremely close” for the next four months … unless they decide to go to the D+13 split they’ve used on occasion.


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Im pretty sure Romney is supposed to be spiraling into oblivion, at least that’s what the elite meme was last week.

rob verdi on July 10, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Racism.

Good Lt on July 10, 2012 at 8:44 AM

A D+9 sample? You’ve gotta be kidding me. Well, this means Romney is looking at a landslide victory if he keeps the base energized and motivated(which even McCain could do in this kind of climate).

Doughboy on July 10, 2012 at 8:45 AM

…I don’t understand the dead heat…with the dead beat!

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Doesn’t matter what the poll says we are going to double down on our mitt attacks because Another poll says they are working
Idiots

Skew not Obama’s friend

cmsinaz on July 10, 2012 at 8:46 AM

…I don’t understand the dead heat…with the dead beat!

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 8:45 AM

No worries…Obama is dead meat.

HumpBot Salvation on July 10, 2012 at 8:46 AM

(which even McCain could do in this kind of climate).

Doughboy on July 10, 2012 at 8:45 AM

…oh please! Db! McCan’t?

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 8:47 AM

The danger is that Romney will see this as incentive to keep up a “prevent” defense and not go on full attack. He doesn’t need to disembowel Obama when death by a thousand cuts has the same end result. He may not believe in kicking a man when he’s down but, in fact, that’s the best time to kick him.

SKYFOX on July 10, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Did Ed mention this was D+9 split? I believe he did…

(Funny, Ed!)

Kraken on July 10, 2012 at 8:48 AM

A D+9 sample

factor in the unknown Bradley effect impact and you have Romney +10…Pres Choom meet doom in Nov….

hillsoftx on July 10, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I guess a cautious campaign can win easily. I’d still like to see an embrace of supply side free market economics and entitlement reform

Donald Draper on July 10, 2012 at 8:50 AM

…oh please! Db! McCan’t?

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Yes, McCain’t. There’s a reason Mittens thinks he can win this thing by running out the clock. He saw what happened in the midterms and in Wisconsin. I do think he needs to be far more aggressive though, if for no other reason than to win big so he has a clear mandate when he takes office.

Doughboy on July 10, 2012 at 8:50 AM

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.

taternuggets on July 10, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Anxiously waiting for analysis from resident trolls onthefarleft and dumbf–kforlife.

gsherin on July 10, 2012 at 8:51 AM

When will this poll receive the “4 Pinocchios” it deserves???

common sensineer on July 10, 2012 at 8:52 AM

This does go towards explaining the ginormous early swing state ad buys Team Obama is making — while the big media is making noises about Romney’s limited path to election, Axelrod knows his guy’s options are just as or even more reliant on winning X number of swing states, and if some other states like Pennsylvania start falling into the “up for grabs” category, Obama’s current campaign spending burn rate is really going to cause problems by mid-September.

jon1979 on July 10, 2012 at 8:52 AM

THE VP PICK…….

This is Romney’s chance to rob Obama of the “white guilt” voters……AND…….allow voters in general to feel like they won’t be called “racists” if they vote for Romney on November 6th.

Who would help do that?

Portman?

Jindal?

Christie?

Ryan?

Martinez?

Bush?

Rubio?

Kasich?

Scott?

……..here is Mitt’s next chance.

Don’t blow it Mitt.

PappyD61 on July 10, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Time to man up and take it, Mitt…..please.

kingsjester on July 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Im pretty sure Romney is supposed to be spiraling into oblivion, at least that’s what the elite meme was last week.

rob verdi on July 10, 2012 at 8:44 AM

I was just coming to say that. I thought Romney was struggling and his campaign was going the way of McCain’s.///

He’s in a dead heat with a +9 sample and he hasn’t even started his ad blitz yet.

Go team Mitt!

gophergirl on July 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

So it’s Romney +15 in reality?

Cool!

MNHawk on July 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

“registered voters”

33/24/36

This poll is complete DOUBLE CRAPOLA.

PappyD61 on July 10, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Agree skyfox
go for jugular…. these folks will do anything out if desperation

cmsinaz on July 10, 2012 at 8:55 AM

do you think if the polls were even halfway objective Obama would have any kind of momentum?

that’s okay, sink into a false sense of security

election day will be a rude awakening

audiotom on July 10, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Anything Pre-SCOTUS Ruling isn’t really useful, +9 or not.

IMO, I’d say post-ruling, rewieghed, and June Job Report, it’s probably Mitt +4, which puts it within MOE.

Romney hasn’t done enough to get people to vote not for him, but his policies. He needs to bullet-point some tangibles, not vague generalities.

budfox on July 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Looks like a bloodbath of epic proportions unless we get invaded by space aliens, in which case Obama will do a better job protecting us than Romney will.

And if Obama gets crushed, down ticket is going to be a disaster as well.

eyedoc on July 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Also, on the issues, the split isn’t helping Obama much. He gets a 47/49 for an overall approval rating

…as you are reading this…I have banged my head against the wall by my screen at least 4 or 5 times…and I’m screaming HOW!…HOW!…WHY…HOW?

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

I’m not a Romney fan, but if I was I’d love these polls. Let the media keep carrying Obama’s water so that when election day appears and Obama gets blown out they can all walk around wondering what happened.

It’ll be just like that media fool, Pauline Kael, from Nixon’s era who couldn’t understand how Nixon won since she didn’t know anyone who voted for him.

njrob on July 10, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Been saying for awhile, the dead heat is the pollster’s game. I don’t think the election will be close.

msupertas on July 10, 2012 at 9:07 AM

All this hand wringing that Romney is not conducting a “future forward” campaign to lay out a “positive vision”:

He will but it’s too soon. His people are correct. If Romney lays out too much specificity, then HE becomes the issue and his positions are subject to an Obama assault. This is a stupid double-whammy: Romney becomes the issue and his proposals would allow Obama’s record to get off the hook.

A lot of times these obnoxious talking heads need something to say, and they flip-flop back and forth to take sides and keep this a horse race, when in fact it probably isn’t and ultimately won’t be.

matthew8787 on July 10, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Obama has a record now…
Oh…people now know something about him outside the campaign field..
The mask slipped….
I am sure his is a good father though..

Electrongod on July 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

You might also look at the trend line of the last 3 WaPo polls

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/presidential-election-campaigning-sways-few/2012/07/09/gJQAJhANZW_graphic.html

Barry 51, 49, 47
Romney 44, 46, 47

bayview on July 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

One of the best laws the Republicans could pass is to have polling outfits/news organizations release the sample used in the first 50 words of their report.

Seriously, if the gov’t can force McDonald’s to list the calorie counts in a Big Mac before you eat it, why shouldn’t we know what’s in these polls when they are released for public consumption. Pure garbage.

monalisa on July 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I don’t understand why some people think the MSM try to mold the news to their ideology; we’ve always been at war with Eastasia.

Knott Buyinit on July 10, 2012 at 9:12 AM

If this poll is accurate, it’s very good news for Romney. Registered voters and a skewed sample and Mitt still is in a tie.

But there IS a real lack of enthusiasm here in WI for Romney. We had a ton of volunteers in the Walker recall, but we would almost have to pay people to put up a Romney sign, lol.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the end, the final turnout in Nov is about Dems+3-4.

gumbyandpokey on July 10, 2012 at 9:14 AM

You want more polls
http://www.washingtontimes.com/multimedia/image/polljpg_734693/
No internals, 800 LV 7/6 to 7/8
R 43 O 42 Not sure 15.
And Barry would like to think undecided will break decisively for him

bayview on July 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Excellent. Are there numbers for the Independents?

Philly on July 10, 2012 at 9:22 AM

A lot of times these obnoxious talking heads need something to say, and they flip-flop back and forth to take sides and keep this a horse race, when in fact it probably isn’t and ultimately won’t be.

matthew8787 on July 10, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I think a lot of these “talking heads” would keel over if there lips ever stopped moving so they just make sh*t up!

Mini-14 on July 10, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I did some calculations to predict the outcome of the 2012 Presidential elections. My calculations were based on the following data and assumptions:

1. Vote by Race.

2. Use the same percentage of participation of each racial group based on the 2008 exit poll data (I used the exit poll data from CNN)

3. Assume that the percentage of Blacks voting for Obama in 2012 is the same as in 2008 and voting for Romney is the same as McCain in 2008.

4. Assume that the percentage of Hispanics voting for Obama in 2012 is the same as in 2008 and voting for Romney is the same as McCain in 2008.

5. Assume that in 2012 Obama would lose 15% of the White voters who voted for him in 2008 and they would be voting for Romney.
Let us start with the 13 Battleground States:

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 47%, Others 2%, Romney wins
Ohio: Romney 51%, Obama 47%, Others 2%, Romney wins
North Carolina: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Others 1%, Romney wins
Virginia: Romney 50.5%, Obama 48.5%, Others 1%, Romney wins
Indiana: Romney 54%, Obama 44%, Others 2%, Romney wins
Colorado: Romney 51%, Obama 48%, Others 1%, Romney wins
Iowa: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Others 1%, Romney wins
New Hampshire: Romney 51%, Obama 48%, Others 1%, Romney wins
Minnesota: Romney 50%, Obama 49%, Others 1% Romney wins

Nevada: Romney 48%, Obama 51%, Others 1%, Obama wins
Pennsylvania: Romney 47%, Obama 52%, Others 1%, Obama wins
Michigan: Romney 47%, Obama 52%, Others 1%, Obama wins
Wisconsin: Romney 49%, Obama 50%, Others 1%, Obama wins

Based on the above Romney would win the elections by winning the Electoral College Vote 295 versus 243 for Obama. Romney can still win the elections even if he loses Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota and in this case it would 272 Electoral votes for Romney and 266 for Obama. Romney can still win the elections even if he loses Virginia and Minnesota, and in this case it would also be 272 Electoral votes for Romney and 266 for Obama.
For the national vote if I follow the same assumption and data then Romney would get 50.5% to Obama 48.5% and 1% for Others.

In my opinion it would be very hard for Romney to win Pennsylvania and Michigan because for this to happen Obama has to lose approximately 22% to 25% of the White voters who voted for him in 2008 in these two states. That may be a very improbable scenario because of the heavy union White votes in both of these states.

Also it seems that Marco Rubio may be Romney best VP choice because it will make the win in Florida almost a certainty and it may help a lot in the Hispanic votes of the two other battleground states with heavy Hispanic population Colorado and Nevada. If Romney can win 35% of the Hispanic vote in Nevada instead of my current projection of 22% which is based on the 2008 exit polls then Romney would win Nevada by 50% to Obama 49.5%.

Conclusion:

It is going to be a very close elections and it all depends on how many Whites voters who voted for Obama in 2008 would leave him and vote for Romney. For Obama to lose the elections at least 14% to 15% of the Whites voters who voted for him in 2008 should vote for Romney in 2012.

mnjg on July 10, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Comparing these polls to where Carter stood in 1980, this could be an epic wipeout for Barack. I’ll be happy with a squeaker win for Romney — very happy — but a wipeout will be so, so sweet. I’ll be dreaming of a Barack concession speech before midnight on election day — and all the Obamamedia folks wringing their hands and saying, “I just don’t understand. I don’t know a single person who voted for Romney,” just like they always say when a Republican wins the White House.

Rational Thought on July 10, 2012 at 9:26 AM

It’s all about the narrative.

“Romney’s numbers are DOWN!!! The election is a foregone conclusion, so DON’T EVEN BOTHER VOTING!!!

That’s the message the MSM is trying to send with these craptastic Guarantee you that if Rasmussin released a similarly skewed poll in the GOP’s favor the MSM would be screaming bloody murder and declaring the end of the First Ammendment.

crazy_legs on July 10, 2012 at 9:26 AM

That’s the message the MSM is trying to send with these craptastic Guarantee you that if

Should be “That’s the message the MSM is trying to send with these craptastic polls. Guarantee you that if…”

“Preview” is your friend.

crazy_legs on July 10, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I just looked at the poll. Independents 53-39 for Romney. Wow. Not looking good Barry.

Philly on July 10, 2012 at 9:28 AM

With a D/R/I split of 33/24/36 (which Ed just might have mentioned a few times) and a 47/47 tie, Romney got at least 23% of the total out of the non-Republicans, and Obama got only 14% out of the non-Democrats. Since the non-partisan voters are 43% of this sample (=100-33-24), Romney gets 23/43 = 53% of them, Obama gets only 14/43 = 33% of them.

This is an excellent sign for Romney–if he can win Indies by 20%, he will be President.

Steve Z on July 10, 2012 at 9:33 AM

MSM: “After Romney’s UNEXPECTED landslide victory many questions remain…”

Mojave Mark on July 10, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I just looked at the poll. Independents 53-39 for Romney. Wow. Not looking good Barry.

Philly on July 10, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Yes that is a disaster for anyone running for re-election… Losing the independent vote by 5 points or more is certain to lose to the elections…

mnjg on July 10, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Rasmussen tracking poll today

Romney 47
Barry 44

Has Romney launched the counter-attack blitz yet?

bayview on July 10, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Total BS…poll executed and published simply to confuse, deflate Romney support…requires wide circulation for effectiveness…CHECK!

winston on July 10, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Anything Pre-SCOTUS Ruling isn’t really useful, +9 or not.

budfox on July 10, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I misread it the first time too. This survey was taken 2 weeks POST-SCOTUS ruling

Despite his big win on ObamaCare two weeks ago (before this survey took place)

txhsmom on July 10, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Mitt is not my candidate of choice, but I look forward to watching Barry’s face on election night as the returns come in. Even better: I’ll split screen MSNBC, CNN, ABC, CBS and NBC just so that I can see lots and lots of frowny faces.

Physics Geek on July 10, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Not just a ridiculous split, but also a poll on straight registered voters, not likely voters.

This is TWO thumbs on the scale.

Red Cloud on July 10, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Is that the smell of landslide I detect on this thread? Sure is some sweet meat on the grill first thing this morning. Slow cook it hear, too hot too fast, it will burn or be tough. Steady.

Bmore on July 10, 2012 at 9:51 AM

mnjg on July 10, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Nice work. I would take issue with your assumption that Barack will get the same levels of support among all those groups in 2012 that he did in 2008.

txhsmom on July 10, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Rasmussen tracking poll today

Romney 47
Barry 44

Has Romney launched the counter-attack blitz yet?

bayview on July 10, 2012 at 9:40 AM

No. Romney still has not really even countered yet. Plus, no bounce from the VP pick and no bounce from the debates, where Romney will come off as pragmatic and presidential. So, Romney still has a ton of room to grow. Add that to the fact that indy’s almost always break away from the incumbent, and Obama is in deep trouble because come election day, you can only skew the results so much using voter fraud.

That is why Obama keeps begging people for money. He wants to keep blasting Romney with negative ads before that point.

milcus on July 10, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Does not matter. On August 15th the CIA director resigns and at the convention Romney announces his vice president selection. That’s the ticket!

Romney/Petraeus!!!!

faol on July 10, 2012 at 9:58 AM

+1 Bmore

cmsinaz on July 10, 2012 at 9:59 AM

That is why Obama keeps begging people for money. He wants to keep blasting Romney with negative ads before that point.

milcus on July 10, 2012 at 9:55 AM

President Obama has spent more than $91 million on mostly negative television ads in eight swing states as of July 6. Pretty much all the polls cited today are conducted on and after 7/6.

bayview on July 10, 2012 at 10:03 AM

There were a whole lot of voters that went with 0bama because they did not want to think of themselves as racist. There will be twice that that will go against 0bama because they do not want to think of themselves as stupid.

jukin3 on July 10, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Sadly poll results affect weak minds, that’s why our media lies about them. In a moronic culture morons will vote for Democrat X because a poll tells the fools he’s leading, or lead. Can’t figure the human mind.

arand on July 10, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nice work. I would take issue with your assumption that Barack will get the same levels of support among all those groups in 2012 that he did in 2008.

txhsmom on July 10, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Thanks. I was trying to be conservative in my calculations by assuming that Obama would get in 2012 the same % of vote from Blacks and Hispanics that he got in 2008.
Again the crucial demographic here is the White Voters. If 15% of White voters who voted for Obama in 2008 leave him and vote for Romney in 2012 then Obama loses the elections.

mnjg on July 10, 2012 at 10:08 AM

How can they keep getting away with such loaded samples? This one doesn’t even pass the laugh test. The only thing I can figure is that Republicans won’t answer any poll by the Washington Post.

rockmom on July 10, 2012 at 10:10 AM

D+9? I’m shocked. Shocked, I say!

Somehow this has got to be All Bush’s Fault. Cheney’s too.

Del Dolemonte on July 10, 2012 at 10:10 AM

WaPo/ABC polls, you can tell how bad the REAL numbers are when they have to pad the deck that much.

GarandFan on July 10, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I believe the cake is already baked and it ain’t a pretty sight for the O team. The fact that the campaign is already flailing with these personal attacks on fake facts about Romney’s history, just shows how desperate they are.

JimK on July 10, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Remember, Carter was +6 in a poll a week before the election. No one actually knew whether Reagan was going to win until the election returns came in. No one really knows what the electorate is going to look like.

If 2012 looks more like 2010 than 2008… well, Romney won’t take California, but he’ll break 300.

TallDave on July 10, 2012 at 10:22 AM

“Remember, Carter was +6 in a poll a week before the election. No one actually knew whether Reagan was going to win until the election returns came in. No one really knows what the electorate is going to look like.

Actually, there was only one poll that really screwed up Carter/Reagan and that was Gallup. The rest of the polls showed big swings to Reagan at the end (I especially remember an NBC poll that showed Reagan surging). People distrust polls, but they usually get it right.

If Obama is up 6 in most polls a week before the election, Romney has no chance.

gumbyandpokey on July 10, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Another thing about Reagan vs Romney…Reagan was portrayed as stupid and extreme, so he had a ton of growth potential in the public’s support. People found him intelligent, charming, witty and up to the job.

Romney, on the other hand, is viewed as rather charmless and lacking charisma or a sense of humor, and that’s exactly true. He has very low growth potential on the likability scale, imo.

gumbyandpokey on July 10, 2012 at 10:31 AM

‘Cept they’re probably right — the millions of newly-legalized aliens/Obama voters should be good for at least 5-6 points on favor of the “D” in that split.

Progressive Heretic on July 10, 2012 at 10:36 AM

How can they keep getting away with such loaded samples? This one doesn’t even pass the laugh test. The only thing I can figure is that Republicans won’t answer any poll by the Washington Post.

rockmom on July 10, 2012 at 10:10 AM

There’s probably nothing dishonest about the poll sample at all. Remember… this is a poll of registered voters. WaPo isn’t trying to screen for likely voters. Whether or not it is too early to try screening is a debatable point, but it is certainly valid for them to argue that it is too early to do so.

And Dems outnumber GOPers in this country. It may or may not be by 9 points, but even a large sample is going to vary according to outside factors (day of week, time of day, etc). That a random sample comes up with a +9 spread is certainly not outside the realm of likelihood.

But among registered (not likely) voters, Team Liar can’t even manage better than a tie. This bodes very well for the Romney campaign and the GOP.

JohnGalt23 on July 10, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Romney can win this election by ten points, and I will work my tail off to make that happen. More importantly, we need to somehow give Demint, Johnson and our other friends what they need to keep the big government Republicans (McConnell et al) in line, and we need to make sure the House stays conservative. Regardless of how weak-kneed Romney then shows himself to be our Congress will be stalwart.

We can do these things.

MTF on July 10, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Bring it. Keep it up and let people think it’s tied going into November. The higher turnout for us the better!

Lord of the Wings on July 10, 2012 at 11:08 AM

OBVIOUSLY, I’m not the brightest bulb on this tree, but I’ve been predicting LANDSLIDE for a long time.

bob77 on July 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

LOL Ed, thank you for a nice chuckle. This post was an entertaining read while also being very informative at the same time.

Skwor on July 10, 2012 at 11:27 AM

A staggering Increase in govt handouts, a shrinking labor force, 8.2% unemployment, a possible European economic collapse, a looming nuclear Iran, the future of American health care and entitlement reform in the balance, trillions of new debt with no sign of prudence or leadership, and hack idealouges on the left and some in the media are focusing on what? Romney’s wealth.

Just try to imagine, for purely entertainment purposes if nothing else, that Sarah Palin was responsible for what we’ve seen from Obama the past 3.75 years and it was Obama who was the presumed Democratic nominee. And it was Obama- a rich democrat with money in a Swiss bank campaigning against Palin. I wonder… how much would the media focus on Obama’s wealth vs Palin’s miserable performance as president? Would we really hear some democratic strategists calling an unchanged 8.2% unemployment rate and 88,000 jobs added in June… a step in the right direction?

It’s simply amazing to me, how some folks who consider themselves intellectual would ever vote to reelect this miserable failure of a President, Barrack Obama. It’s amazing and hilarious. Do you not know you’ve got a “kick me” sign taped to your ass?

Fish on July 10, 2012 at 11:43 AM

President Obama has spent more than $91 million on mostly negative television ads in eight swing states as of July 6. Pretty much all the polls cited today are conducted on and after 7/6.

bayview on July 10, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Yes, that is the point. He needs more money to spend to try to paint Romney in the most negative light that he can. And the fact that he is close, even in skewed polls, shows that the negative ad blitz is having an effect.

milcus on July 10, 2012 at 11:44 AM

gophergirl on July 10, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Yes!!!

lovingmyUSA on July 10, 2012 at 11:58 AM

The Rolling Average of Obama’s Popularity over at Real Clear Politics has him down.
Approve Disapprove Difference
RCP Average 6/20 – 7/9 — 46.8 48.8 -2.0
ABC News/Wash Post 7/5 – 7/8 1003 A 47 49 -2
Rasmussen Reports 7/7 – 7/9 1500 LV 45 53 -8
Gallup 7/6 – 7/8 1500 A 45 46 -1
CNN/Opinion Research 6/28 – 7/1 1390 RV 50 49 +1
Newsweek/Daily Beast 6/28 – 6/28 600 LV 45 54 -9
Democracy Corps (D) 6/23 – 6/27 1000 LV 47 48 -1

GadsdenRattlers on July 10, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Rasmussen has Romney +3, with a Republican +2 sample. So basically dead even. R:35.4, D:33.6,I:30.9

Buckshot Bill on July 10, 2012 at 12:59 PM

All these BS polls are hiding the beginning of the preference cascade – Obama is in a kind of super-saturated state, with the MBM and these cheerleader polling lies the only thing standing between Obama and a 10 point collapse.

motionview on July 10, 2012 at 1:03 PM

WaPo was one thousand registered voters; Rasmussen is 15 – 30 thousand likely voters.

motionview on July 10, 2012 at 1:06 PM

WaPo was one thousand registered voters; Rasmussen is 15 – 30 thousand likely voters.

motionview on July 10, 2012 at 1:06 PM

And still a dead heat, with a skewed sample in Romney’s favor. There are more Indies, than Rs or Ds.

Buckshot Bill on July 10, 2012 at 1:10 PM

OBVIOUSLY, I’m not the brightest bulb on this tree, but I’ve been predicting LANDSLIDE for a long time.

bob77 on July 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I felt the Reagan wave of 1980 in my bones, I felt the GOP wave in 1994 in my bones, and I knew in my heart of heart, the GOP was going to gain over 60 seats in 2010.

My heart of heart and my bones are SCREAMING that Obama will lost the rust belt and coal states this cycle.

I also firmly believe that people are not being forthcoming about how must they detest and despise Obama to pollsters. There is still tremendous pressure in the popular culture to still be an Obamabot because it is still perceived as “cool” with the celebrity culture. So I firmly believe there is an insidious bradley affect in the poll results that is going to show up on election day when they count the votes.

Other things that can’t be polled but will show up – voter ID has been upheld in many states. This will be the first national election where it will be in force.

karenhasfreedom on July 10, 2012 at 1:10 PM

And still a dead heat, with a skewed sample in Romney’s favor. There are more Indies, than Rs or Ds

The point is it is not a skewed sample, it more accurately reflects the likely turnout of voters in 2012. In 2010 the exit polls showed about 35% each Dem and Rep, 29% Independent. 29% is less than 35%.

motionview on July 10, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Did I mention that this poll has a D+9 split?

I think you might have, but let’s look at this in more detail and with a little more sopistication. You say -

“Readers have to trek around a bit to find it, but the D/R/I in this sample is 33/24/36. In 2008, the split was 39/32/29, and in the 2010 midterms it was 35/35/30, both figures from CNN’s exit polls.”

This means 37.5% more dems than reps ((33 – 24) /24) in their sample. In 2008 it was 21.9% more dems than reps voting ((39-32) /32).

VorDaj on July 10, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Another Leftist LIARS Poll…
This joke of a “poll” inflates the sampling of d-cRAT socialists to 9 percentage points greater than Repubs and independents and further compounds the joke by presenting results for only “registered” voters (which is meaningless) instead of “likely” voters.

In spite of this obvious manipulation data to favor d-cRAT socialists, the “poll” still shows Romney and OBOZO tied — which means, in reality, that Romney is WAY AHEAD of OBOZO in voter preference (exactly as one would expect).

TeaPartyNation on July 10, 2012 at 2:31 PM

If 56% of the people in the country actually believe that Obama has transformed the country in a negative way…it seems very likely to me that in the end, he will lose.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Here’s my question: if hack polls like these are showing a dead heat then why are non-hack polls with fair samples (Gallup and Rasmussen are the only two I pay any attention to) showing the same thing?

LukeinNE on July 10, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Another FLAWED poll… throw it away…

I’m thinking LANDSLIDE for Mittens in NO-vember… seriously…

Khun Joe on July 10, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Yep no bias.

/

CW on July 10, 2012 at 6:48 PM