Has Obama peaked?

posted at 4:46 pm on July 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

Conn Carroll’s post is kryptonite to an eeyore, but I owe you guys some sunshine after yesterday’s raincloud about Romney’s chances after the debates.

Note the big “if” built in here.

Worse for Obama, the latest fundraising numbers show he will not be able to outspend Romney forever. Romney and the Republican National Committee raised $106 million in June, while Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised only $71 million. Romney will eventually reach parity with Obama on television spending and will probably surpass him.

So how is Obama doing now, at the height of his incumbency advantage? At best, he’s treading water…

The source of Obama’s weakness is easy to identify. Sixty-three percent of respondents [in today's ABC/WaPo poll] say the country is on the wrong track. Eighty-nine percent identify the economy as the most important issue in the election. And 54 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. However, few people know what Romney will do about the economy if elected president. Only 38 percent of respondents say Romney has presented “a clear plan for dealing the the economic situation.”

If Romney can build on his existing economic advantage (respondents trust Romney more on the economy 49 percent to 44 percent), this may be Obama’s high water mark.

Two potential problems. One: What would an effective anti-Obama attack ad look like at this point? We’re all waiting for Team Mitt and their battalion of Republican Super PACs to launch a nuclear ad blitz against O, but what’s going to be in those ads that’ll move the needle? Probably 80 percent of them will focus on the economy, but even in a nation of low-information voters, we must already be approaching the moment when economic stagnation is mostly priced into the polls, no? Granted, many of the people in the center who’ll decide the election spend their lives in a blissful news coma, but even the comatose have some dim awareness by now that “economy = bad.” If things turned so sour that the economy slipped into a new recession, that might alarm swing voters enough to really move the polls, but barring that, what’s Romney supposed to say to “build on his existing economic advantage”? His message is simple: We can’t risk another four years on Obamanomics. Will that point be more effective after it’s made eight million times?

Which brings us to problem two: Is there any affirmative case for Romney? Matt Lewis made a good point in a post this morning that hadn’t occurred to me:

Think of it this way. Despite the fact that Obama has had a pretty miserable couple of months, he has still driven the debate, and has generally maintained a slight lead in the polls (including in most of the swing states). And during that time, whether the conversation has been the Buffett Rule or the DREAM Act or extending the Bush tax cuts for everyone making less than $250,000 — Obama has defined the turf.

Even in the rare instances where conservatives have been on offense, Romney was mostly just capitalizing on gaffes (Hilary Rosen). In some cases, it was the work of third parties (such as Jim Treacher discovering a young Obama dined on man’s best friend) that turned the tide. (In fairness, Obama has the bully pulpit and much of the media, so it’s not a fair fight.) Still, this question is worth asking: If Obama is still winning now, after getting off to a rough start, why should anyone expect things to change in, say, October…

Ironically, Romney may be harmed by the fact that the race has been so close. He can take solace in the fact that he is within the margin of error, but that will be cold comfort should he lose by a point or two.

Why hasn’t Romney been on offense more often? Is it a simple matter of the point I made above, that Obama’s biggest liability is already so well known that it’s difficult to find new angles of attack? Is it just bad packaging, as Rush Limbaugh alluded to yesterday in wondering how anyone’s supposed to remember Romney’s 59-point economic plan? Or is this just Mitt being Mitt? If you nominate a guy who’s not very ideological, don’t be surprised when he struggles to make an affirmative case for the conservative vision. That’s not how he won the primaries, after all: He won by making Gingrich and Santorum radioactive to voters with negative ads. That was easy to do given his financial advantage and their comparatively low name-recognition; to do it to The One will be orders of magnitude more difficult. So let me ask again: How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?


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…he never got there…but for the media misfits!

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Obama peaked in February of 2009 but the pandering fools that elected him wouldn’t acknowledge that fact.

rplat on July 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

This isn’t sunshine, it’s more handwringing.

changer1701 on July 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

…JugEars keeps krapping himself…now it’s Romney’s turn to take charge.

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Yup.

It’s all Downgrade from here on out.

Chip on July 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Answer to exit question: “The economy stinks.”

Seth Halpern on July 10, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Let’s hope so. Even the naive and uninitiated are learning there’s no such thing as free money.

Paul-Cincy on July 10, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Has Obama peaked?

Has Obama run out of hypocritical lies to tell yet? If not, then the answer is probably no.

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Obama Raised taxes highest ever in world history. He is the tax man coming to take your hard earned money and spend it on solyndra and shrimp on a treadmill studies

Conservative4ev on July 10, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Probably 80 percent of them will focus on the economy, but even in a nation of low-information voters, we must already be approaching the moment when economic stagnation is mostly priced into the polls, no?

Allahpundit is actually Mickey Kaus, no?

EricW on July 10, 2012 at 4:54 PM

It’s way too early. That’s why Mitt hasn’t pushed as strongly as others want. You want to start rising at the right moment. Also, who’s gonna remember anything this far out?

MrX on July 10, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Obama is a liar in chief, he said he wouldn’t raise taxes during a recession, now it’s a depression and he wants to raise taxes. Does he know the differences or is that much of a economic nitwit.

I would also call him a tyrant, the man wants government to decide who gets care and who dies with his panels,mwho gets to drill and who gets shut down.

Conservative4ev on July 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Obama peaked in February of 2009 but the pandering fools that elected him wouldn’t acknowledge that fact.

rplat on July 10, 2012 at 4:51 PM

In my mind, it was back in the Harvard days. All downhill since, especially for the country.

msupertas on July 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Romney and the Republican National Committee raised $106 million in June, while Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised only $71 million. Romney will eventually reach parity with Obama on television spending and will probably surpass him.

Polls also indicate that big democratic donors haven’t yet warmed to the idea of donating to SuperPACs. Eventually that will change esp. after the conventions.
That’s not to say that Romeny won’t ultimately succeed in the ad wars- look at how his opponents were decimated by attack ads in the primaries are you see that his team knows how to spend to win.

bayam on July 10, 2012 at 4:56 PM

He peaked…
The economy sinked.

Spell checked by Teleprompter™

Electrongod on July 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

That’s not how he won the primaries, after all: He won by making Gingrich and Santorum radioactive to voters with negative ads. That was easy to do given his financial advantage and their comparatively low name-recognition; to do it to The One will be orders of magnitude more difficult. So let ask again: How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

If Romney can’t make Obama radioactive(assuming he isn’t already to 50.1+% of the electorate), then he’s an even more pathetic candidate than John McCain. You wanna know where to hit Obama beside the economy? Gee, let’s see. Obamacare which is now deemed a tax by the Supremes. Obama unleashing the EPA on the coal and natural gas industries which will inevitably lead to higher energy prices and supply shortages. Operation Fast & Furious. Solyndra. The budget deficit. The lack of a budget from the Democrat-controlled Senate for over 3 years. The nasty partisan class warfare tactics of the Obama campaign. Obama’s refusal to do anything to control the border(he’s doing the opposite in fact).

And that’s just off the top of my head. All are relevant topics. Many of them tie into the economy which seems to be Mittens’ comfort zone. And Obama would be hard-pressed to come up with any justification or counter for any of those attacks.

Doughboy on July 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

O peaked… that’s the meme of the day, in our rush to overconfidence; just yesterday it seems Rush et al were up in arms that things seemed to be going south for Romney.
O’s got some tricks up his sleeve, and an Oct surprise or two. We need to keep at this like we’re 15 points behind! And with news that Mitt had some good fundraising, we can’t relax on that, he’s got to keep raising a ton of money all the way through. In the end, it will come down to money. Donate$.
$$$ —

anotherJoe on July 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Why hasn’t Romney been on offense more often?

Good question. And since the Obamacare ruling all his team has done is play defense.

Kataklysmic on July 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Juxtapose what Obullshnit says with what he does. He hangs himself.

ronsfi on July 10, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I honestly don’t get the ‘when is Mitt going to go for the jugular’ complaint, at all. It’s July. Let Obama throw away tens of millions now just to achieve that 47% in the polls, then go toe-to-toe with him when the campaign starts in earnest, when most people are actually paying attention. He’s been hammering Obama on the economy, and I expect that to continue.

changer1701 on July 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Why hasn’t Romney been on offense more often?

Good question. And since the Obamacare ruling all his team has done is play defense.

Kataklysmic on July 10, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Sun Tzu says, when your enemy is self destructing, stay out of his way and let him self destruct lest by attacking him he regains control of himself.

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I think you remind voters of all the bad decisions obama’s made. You remind them of how partisan he has been. Of how his answer to everything is to trot out another speech to raise taxes. Of how he golfs and vacations more than any other president, even in a time of crisis. Of how our allies and competitors (Russia/China) don’t think much of him.

You also hammer him on some of the stuff that McCain and the press ignored last time around. His association with Bill Ayers. His admitting to being a stoner and using even heavier drugs and dealing in his books. His associations with avowed communists. (now, this stuff can’t be your #1 line of attack – but don’t leave it sitting on the table – use it).

Hit him again and again on Obamacare – how nobody wanted it and they used all kinds of nonsense to pass it, how it will harm the economy and raise healthcare costs.

Hit him on Solyandra and all the crony capitalism.

Hit him on Fast and Furious.

Start defining him as a Chicago thug politician and far-left ideologue who uses gov’t to hand out favors. Point out that he is the least transparent administration in our lifetimes. Point out that he spends the majority of his time as president fund-raising.

There is a ton of stuff there – most of it never heard by the majority of independents yet. It is only the fear that it will be seen as “too mean” as against “the first black president” that is stopping team Romney from using it. I will admit Romney seems to have a lot more fight in him than McCain did – but he is still pulling his punches.

Monkeytoe on July 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

How about ad ad showing Mitt reading “The little engine that could” to a group of mixed ethnic/gender kids then flashing to Obama’s recent speech where he lamented to the crowd that gee everyone knows he’s really “tried” to fix the economy as the current debt clock ticks above the children’s heads & then close with…”Sorry trying just wisn’t good enough when your country’s future is at stake! then scan back to children!

huskerdiva on July 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

If you nominate a guy who’s not very ideological, don’t be surprised when he struggles to make an affirmative case for the conservative vision.

Spot on. That’s why the Reagan/Carter analogy doesn’t work.

Voters broke late for Reagan because he offered a clear cut difference from Carter and also showed that he wasn’t a rightwing war mongerer who would blow the world up.

Once the public determined he could do the job, the ideological difference secured his win.

If Romney passes the threshold test of “Can he be president?” he still has to offer a plan, a vision, an alternative.

Relying on the “Anybody but Obama” vote is too big of a risk.

SteveMG on July 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

“What would an effective anti-Obama attack ad look like at this point?”

I would start with the actual results of all of his failed policies based upon his failed ideology…

… then you can throw in all the scandals, crony capitalism, executive orders circumventing congress, his wonderful foreign policy, economic prowess, keen energy instincts, and his love for the Mexican people.

But that’s just me…

Seven Percent Solution on July 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Why hasn’t Romney been on offense more often?

McCainitis.

Contagious within certain strains Republican, and always fatal.

Bruno Strozek on July 10, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Obama seen in outlet store trying on sweaters; strategists predict a “Malaise” speech may be forthcoming.

To wit, several quotes from Carter’s speech. See if any sound….erh…familiar..:

“We can’t go on consuming 40 percent more energy than we produce. When we import oil we are also importing inflation plus unemployment.”

“We’ve got to use what we have. The Middle East has only five percent of the world’s energy, but the United States has 24 percent.”

And this is one of the most vivid statements: “Our neck is stretched over the fence and OPEC has a knife.” [Ah..so thats where they got that idea from...]

“There will be other cartels and other shortages. American wisdom and courage right now can set a path to follow in the future.”

This was a good one: “Be bold, Mr. President. We may make mistakes, but we are ready to experiment.” [Solyndra, anyone?]

And this one from a labor leader got to the heart of it: “The real issue is freedom. We must deal with the energy problem on a war footing.”

And the last that I’ll read: “When we enter the moral equivalent of war, Mr. President, don’t issue us BB guns.” [If they bring a knife, we'll bring a gun]

This man didn’t study the Constitution. He studied Carter.

BobMbx on July 10, 2012 at 5:03 PM

It’s way too early. That’s why Mitt hasn’t pushed as strongly as others want. You want to start rising at the right moment. Also, who’s gonna remember anything this far out?

MrX on July 10, 2012 at 4:55 PM

This and

Sun Tzu says, when your enemy is self destructing, stay out of his way and let him self destruct lest by attacking him he regains control of himself.

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

this

blatantblue on July 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

what would an effective anti-Obama attack ad look like at this point?

Man’s boss hands him an envelope at work, it’s a pink slip. Man drives home, in the rain, looks worried. Arrives home early, wife looks concerned, has two kids watching tv. Dad goes to the livingroom, picks up the remote, changes the channel. There’s Obama telling everyone that the recent jobs numbers were a “step in the right direction”. Man picks up an envelope from the Obama campaign, opens it, crumples the letter inside and throws it in the trash. Wife says “now THAT is a step in the right direction”.

That’s ONE … I have a few.

crosspatch on July 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Romney took a deficit and turned it into a surplus.

That is a pretty big plus considering our fiscal situation.

And Romney is a good deal more conservative than Barack Obama..I do not know why people say he is not ideological. The fact that he does not make his living running his mouth on talk radio does not mean he is not ideological. And he is competent, rational, methodical and intelligent. Right now that does not sound too bad at all.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

How about
he lies compulsively
he whines about everything
we still don’t know his background
he lies compulsively
he knows nothing about economics since he’s never held a real job
he’s a racilaist
he mails it in
he disrespectful to Americans
he’s constantly apologizing to foriegners
he lies compuslively
he throws like a weak girl
he is destroying the economy apparently on purpose
he can’t stand self reliance
he’s a bully that picks winners and losers because he’s president
he’s smaller and weaker than his wife
he lies compulsively
he can’t do math at all
he’s a community organizer from Chicago
he’s bankrupting us and enjoying it
that’s just off the top of my head but there’s plenty more.

DanMan on July 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

ObamaTax.

That’s the answer to the exit question.

booter on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

I sure hope so, because there appears to be a correlation; when Obama peaks, my life endures a deep valley of despair .

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

I sure hope so, because there appears to be a correlation; when Obama peaks, my life endures a deep valley of despair.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Has Obama peaked?

Alternative Headline…

“Has Obama run out of multi-colored smoke to blow up your a%%?”

Seven Percent Solution on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

So let me ask again: How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

For one thing he needs to be able to say Obama’s policies will always cause problems with the economy, and here’s why…and then say it in a couple of sentences. I think this would undercut Obama saying he needs more time for his policies to work.

To do that, IMHO, Romney needs to have hire someone who is fluent in conservative principles and economics to tutor him in expressing how principles underlay policy.

He’s got to learn to present that affirmative case for a conservative vision.

He needs to be able to do this for other topics as well.

INC on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Why hasn’t Romney been on offense more often?

It might be all the (over)confident articles saying 0bama’s ineptitude is so self-evident that all Romney needs to do to is play prevent defense and run the clock out while 0bama shoots himself in the foot.

Those “Romney can’t lose” articles are driving me crazy. VDH had one, with some qualification, on PJ a couple days ago. VDH argued that the electorate has tuned 0bama out; I say the vaunted swing voter has not yet started paying attention, and is still up for grabs.

Unfortunately, many of those swing voters will be susceptible to whatever shiny object the left drags out that week, especially with the old media working for 0bama.

Playing it safe is not a good strategy for Romney–he needs to come out and punch Barry in the mouth.*

*civility and new tone’d

MidniteRambler on July 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Wow, my first double post. And I have been here for six years.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Man’s boss hands him an envelope at work, it’s a pink slip. Man drives home, in the rain, looks worried. Arrives home early, wife looks concerned, has two kids watching tv. Dad goes to the livingroom, picks up the remote, changes the channel. There’s Obama telling everyone that the recent jobs numbers were a “step in the right direction”. Man picks up an envelope from the Obama campaign, opens it, crumples the letter inside and throws it in the trash. Wife says “now THAT is a step in the right direction”.

That’s ONE … I have a few.

crosspatch on July 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

That is really good.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

There’s plenty of material. I just think the timing is a little early to saturate the airwaves with all broken promises, the hobnobbing with Hollywood donors, the disconnect with people and their economic situation, the focus on Ocare at the expense of the economy, the vacations, Solyndra, Fast and furious, the fact he had 2 years with power in every branch, his total lack of transparency, etc. I guess the economy is baked into the cake, but many of his misplaced priorities aren’t common knowledge because the media doesn’t cover it in much depth. Still, the A list stuff should come in the fall.

I do agree he should knock down this Bain stuff more aggressively right now. Sure, it’s pretty well baked into the cake, but addressing this in the primary doesn’t carry over to the independents that vote based off general themes and caricatures.

stldave on July 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Has Obama peaked?

Yes, but Romney still needs to climb over that peak. There does seem to be a growing body of evidence that Romney is having problems closing the deal.

You wanna know where to hit Obama beside the economy? Gee, let’s see. Obamacare which is now deemed a tax by the Supremes.

Romney’s people don’t want to talk about it; it’s clear they are embarassed by the issue and just want it to go away. The strategy seems to be to just keep talking about “the economy” in general and avoid any policy details or prescriptions as much as possible.

Romney’s campaign had a strong, post-primary start, but now they appear to be stumbling and it’s not clear to me why this is. It’s not just the Obamacare issue; they can’t seem to consistently move above Obama in the polls even with the economy starting to collapse (again). Yes, yes, the polls are biased, but even McCain was able to pull ahead of Obama until the Lehman crash and TARP.

Doomberg on July 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Gingrich – low name recognition, WTH, allah??? :-)…

jimver on July 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Mittens needs to remind voters that another 4 years of Obama will ruin their retirement plans forever and be prepared to have your kids nesting at home (if you still have one) for another decade. That, and there’s a good possiblity your grandchildren will become wards of the State! How’s that for putting the fear of God into the voter’s conscience???

Bob in VA on July 10, 2012 at 5:08 PM

What would an effective anti-Obama attack ad look like at this point?

I’d suggest a three pronged attack using the following themes:

FAILURE: List every single program, policy, and crackpot idea this clown’s administration has come up with. Include the initial price tag and the negative ROI. And don’t forget the unamimous rejection of his budgets.

LIAR: A loop of all the bald faced lies and contradictions Obama has spouted over the years. Extra credit when they include his verbal tics and duping delight signals.

DANGER: Footage of the Middle East and Arabia in flames, the streets of Mexico strewn with the bodies of the those killed in the drug wars, Iranian nuclear reactors, Putin and Chavez openly mocking him.

RobertE on July 10, 2012 at 5:08 PM

The average voter doesn’t pay attention during the summer. Ergo, the current polls.

Meryl Yourish on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Time to start consuming some oranges 0? I’m quite sure you know what I mean Dude.

Bmore on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Man’s boss hands him an envelope at work, it’s a pink slip. Man drives home, in the rain, looks worried. Arrives home early, wife looks concerned, has two kids watching tv. Dad goes to the livingroom, picks up the remote, changes the channel. There’s Obama telling everyone that the recent jobs numbers were a “step in the right direction”. Man picks up an envelope from the Obama campaign, opens it, crumples the letter inside and throws it in the trash. Wife says “now THAT is a step in the right direction”.

That’s ONE … I have a few.

crosspatch on July 10, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Would be much better if he puts the pink slip in the Obama donation envelope and mails it to Obama… Just sayin…

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Obama has only one demographic left and that is The Stupid Vote

Buttercup on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

So let me ask again: How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

the economy stinks and do we really want four more years of it?

hellz nawh

ted c on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Gingrich – low name recognition, WTH, allah??? :-)…

jimver on July 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

I don’t recall exact data, but I think Gingrich did well with those who remembered the Republican Revolution of 1994. With others, they relied on info from Romney ads.

INC on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Those “Romney can’t lose” articles are driving me crazy. VDH had one, with some qualification, on PJ a couple days ago. VDH argued that the electorate has tuned 0bama out; I say the vaunted swing voter has not yet started paying attention, and is still up for grabs.

This “of COURSE Romney will win” stuff scares me. We had the same attitudes going into the Supreme Court battle over Obamacare after the oral arguments.

Doomberg on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Obama peaked in November of ’08

The Notorious G.O.P on July 10, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Playing it safe is not a good strategy for Romney–he needs to come out and punch Barry in the mouth.*

*civility and new tone’d

MidniteRambler on July 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I have not gotten the impression that Romney has been playing it safe..nearly every Romney ad I have seen has been a negative ad attacking Obama on his dishonesty, his crappy record involving the economy and his over regulation both in health care and in the rest of the economy.

I am in Indiana and I don’t think a lot of ads from either candidate have run here so far, but it seems to me that Romney has been on the offense as much or more than he has on the defense.

I think one of the reasons people do not see that is that Obama is the president and has control of that bully pulpit and it just gives him such an advantage in terms of face time in front of the American people.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Hit him again and again on Obamacare – how nobody wanted it and they used all kinds of nonsense to pass it, how it will harm the economy and raise healthcare costs.

Hit him on Solyandra and all the crony capitalism.

Hit him on Fast and Furious.

Start defining him as a Chicago thug politician and far-left ideologue who uses gov’t to hand out favors. Point out that he is the least transparent administration in our lifetimes. Point out that he spends the majority of his time as president fund-raising.

Monkeytoe on July 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Yes! The main thing… start hitting HARD. Mix and match, but take the attack deep, no more pussyfooting around!!! !!!

anotherJoe on July 10, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Wow, my first double post. And I have been here for six years.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Maybe so, but you were very quiet for the first 5 plus. Congrats all the same. ; )

Bmore on July 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

More like cratering.

HumpBot Salvation on July 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

By all means Romney blast away at Obama, but what he is missing is a theme to hammer down with voters about himself. Obama if for nothing was able to drilled down Hope and Change and now Forward with voters, so that if they couldn’t say more than two words about Obama they could at least say Hope and Change! Romney doesn’t have a theme that’s drilled down with voters to the same level. They have “Believe” and he talks about “No Apologies” but that’s more of the flim flam Obama was selling in 2008. Romney should contrast Obama with a theme that is concrete and that he will deliver on. Why not something like Growth, Jobs and Properity? I think Santorum had something similiar, but in the least hammer something thematic that’s concrete the voters could identify with Romney, so that when you ask, “what about Romney?” They say, “Growth, Jobs, and Prosperity!”

I am just giving an example and it doesn’t have to be those exact words but it has to be something or else Obama is going to define Mitt and it’s all over no matter what the polls say now.

milemarker2020 on July 10, 2012 at 5:15 PM

I am so tired of Republicans in general and Romney in particular just sitting back and observing. It’s time for action! Stop letting the left tell these lies and stop letting them lead the narriative. I’ve seen posters on blogs making more points than Romney has. Here’s an idea, how about we hit Obama with his failed promises, his record, how Obamacare was passed etc…There is plenty of fuel for this fire but the Republicans are using green wood. All it does is smoulder, time for a FIRE. If not now, when?

neyney on July 10, 2012 at 5:15 PM

…it’s the ECONOMY stupid…!!!

KOOLAID2 on July 10, 2012 at 5:15 PM

McCainitis.

Contagious within certain strains Republican, and always fatal.

Bruno Strozek on July 10, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Nope. I don’t think so. Obama’s spending so far as been ineffective. Why not just let him keep blowing his cash? Obama is going in reverse, Romney is holding his own without spending anything. We still have a while yet before the convention, why blow cash this early if you don’t have to?

crosspatch on July 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

“Why hasn’t Romney been on the offense more often.”

Because going all out this early is a waste of money. Look at the money advantage Obama HAD; after months and months of spending money like there was no tomorrow on television commercials he’s essentially lost almost all of it. And in return he’s, treading water, barely playing even with Romney in polls that give democrats a near double digit demo skew.

Come late August, Romney will have the money advantage, and he’ll be able to launch the offensive right as the Republican convention ends, and right when the electorate really starts tuning in and taking the election seriously.

Thats the worst time for Obama to be outspent, and this is only possible because unlike democrats the Romney campaign is spending its money wisely.

Gee, I’d think you’d be cheering such competent handling of finances.

WolvenOne on July 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Romney’s campaign had a strong, post-primary start, but now they appear to be stumbling and it’s not clear to me why this is. It’s not just the Obamacare issue; they can’t seem to consistently move above Obama in the polls even with the economy starting to collapse (again). Yes, yes, the polls are biased, but even McCain was able to pull ahead of Obama until the Lehman crash and TARP.

Doomberg on July 10, 2012 at 5:07 PM

The only people who think they are stumbling are pundits and political junkies who usually reinforce one another’s opinions.

Romney has not backed of Obamacare. Every stop he makes he says he will work to repeal it. That has not changed.

And the fact that he took a few days off to go on a vacation with his family at the same time most Americans are completely tuning politics out does not mean he has disengaged.

I mean really, it is early July…it is four months before the election..people do not even really listen to this stuff until September.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Sun Tzu says, when your enemy is self destructing, stay out of his way and let him self destruct lest by attacking him he regains control of himself.

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

this is true. Why would Romney place himself unnecessarily at risk by attacking when Obama is self-inflicting his own damage???? Obama’s best play here is to try and drag Romney in close so he can shiv him. He needs to do more of the stealth Solyndra pressers and coy stuff like that.

ted c on July 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

If you nominate a guy who’s not very ideological, don’t be surprised when he struggles to make an affirmative case for the conservative vision.

I’m voting for Romney because he’s competent. Of course, I’d vote for a turtle over Bammer. But if I were not that ideological, I’d be looking for competence which Romney has this in spades over the angry little boy.

Why not do an ad highlighting his strategy for turning the Olympics into a total success? Put that up against the little boy who wrote a memoir. How ’bout that?

LetsBfrank on July 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

did i miss the post about Mary Katerine Ham joining HA?

r keller on July 10, 2012 at 5:17 PM

of course it is Katharine

r keller on July 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

I sure hope so, because there appears to be a correlation; when Obama peaks, my life endures a deep valley of despair .

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

I sure hope so, because there appears to be a correlation; when Obama peaks, my life endures a deep valley of despair.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:05 PM

**duplicate comment detected. it looks like you’ve already said that**

/stuff I usually get.

ted c on July 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Would be much better if he puts the pink slip in the Obama donation envelope and mails it to Obama… Just sayin…

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:09 PM

OOhhh! Good one! He can do both! He can take out the letter, throw it away, put the pink slip in the envelope and then the wife makes the comment. Excellent.

And after the ad airs, the Obama campaign starts getting envelopes with pink slips in them!

crosspatch on July 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

I owe you guys some sunshine

Hey AllahP, how about posting the clip of Andrea Mitchell trying to defend the outsourcing claims on Romney…brightened my day.

Just a suggestion:)

MontanaMmmm on July 10, 2012 at 5:18 PM

If Romney wins, it will be a victory with the help of a strong party-wide Republican effort. Even beyond Romney, candidates for the Senate, House, and other offices are well-advised to emphasize the taxes-and-trust message, and if they do, they will not only help themselves, but also the entire GOP ticket. After all, few Republicans, other than Romney, are tainted by past flirtations with the mandate/tax. So this could well be a year in which the unleashed raw energy of base voters and swing voters bubbles up from the grassroots, helping even sometimes diffident candidates at the top.

I encourage everyone to read Pat Caddell’s piece at Breitbart.

RushBaby on July 10, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Sun Tzu says, when your enemy is self destructing, stay out of his way and let him self destruct lest by attacking him he regains control of himself.

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Okay, but if Obama was self-destructing he’d be cratering in the polls. He had a horrible June, and a good chunk of May was terrible for him too.

Yet, he and Romney are basically tied. Why?

Instead of staying in a cocoon and just blindly supporting Romney, we need to push him to make some changes to campaign; clearly his current methods aren’t getting the job done.

Doomberg on July 10, 2012 at 5:20 PM

I am so tired of Republicans in general and Romney in particular just sitting back and observing. It’s time for action! Stop letting the left tell these lies and stop letting them lead the narriative. I’ve seen posters on blogs making more points than Romney has. Here’s an idea, how about we hit Obama with his failed promises, his record, how Obamacare was passed etc…There is plenty of fuel for this fire but the Republicans are using green wood. All it does is smoulder, time for a FIRE. If not now, when?

neyney on July 10, 2012 at 5:15 PM

This is simply not true…Romney has been out there all over the country talking to people from across the country. If you actually pay attention to what he is doing, he is always campaigning..even during that short vacation, he still did interview and made appearances. His people are out there, he is running ads.

Romney has talked about the economy, Obama’s broken promises, the EPA, all sorts of things..but you have to be listening. You can not just sit back on some comment thread and wonder why he is not in your living room telling you all these things.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 5:21 PM

He needs to do more of the stealth Solyndra pressers and coy stuff like that.

ted c on July 10, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I agree. Anyone know why he hasn’t done anything like that since?

Kataklysmic on July 10, 2012 at 5:21 PM

The One will be orders of magnitude more difficult. So let me ask again: How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

He doesnt. Anyone who is smart enough can see Romney isnt winning squat.
He should be outright leading Obama right now. Obama has more money than him. Romney cant win against someone without having a huge financial advantage

Flapjackmaka on July 10, 2012 at 5:24 PM

So let me ask again: How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

Obama.Tax. A majority hates the thing, far more people REALLY hate the thing than love it. It’s simple and easy to understand. The Republicans have fought and won this public opinion battle before. RomneyCare is an issue but the federalism response will be good enough for the independents and the Tea Partiers have no choice.

Bombs away.

LukeinNE on July 10, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Okay, but if Obama was self-destructing he’d be cratering in the polls. He had a horrible June, and a good chunk of May was terrible for him too.

Yet, he and Romney are basically tied. Why?

Instead of staying in a cocoon and just blindly supporting Romney, we need to push him to make some changes to campaign; clearly his current methods aren’t getting the job done.

Doomberg on July 10, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Obama could start speaking in pig latin and about 43% of the people in this country are probably going to vote for him. No matter what Romney does, even with all this back seat driving from people who seem to think they are experts on running national campaigns for the President of the United States Obama is not going to crater. Not entirely.

Terrye on July 10, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Okay, but if Obama was self-destructing he’d be cratering in the polls. He had a horrible June, and a good chunk of May was terrible for him too.

Yet, he and Romney are basically tied. Why?

Ask, and ye shall receive:

Obama has only one demographic left and that is The Stupid Vote

The stupid vote, might, just might, be large enough to inflict another four years of Soetoro on us.

MidniteRambler on July 10, 2012 at 5:28 PM

1) Is anyone who voted for McCain last time going to vote for Obama this time around?

2) How many people who sat out the last election BECAUSE of the “R” candidate is going to sit this one out? How many of those folks “learned their lesson” and are going to make darn sure that this clown gets voted out?

3) How many people who voted for Obama last time because “It was time” or “It was the right thing to do” are going to feel that way this time and vote for him again?

4) How many people who voted for Obama last time are going to cross the aisle or sit out this election because they don’t like what he’s done over the past 4 years?

Unless there is MASSIVE voter fraud, Obama is toast.

TeresainFortWorth on July 10, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Unless there is MASSIVE voter fraud, Obama is toast.

TeresainFortWorth on July 10, 2012 at 5:29 PM

But this isnt true. If the election was today, Romney would lose. He doesnt have a message or a good background for the presidency. It’s a fighting a boring empty suit versus a celebrity one.

Flapjackmaka on July 10, 2012 at 5:33 PM

How should he start? What’s the first line of attack besides “the economy stinks”?

The Romney camp can kill two birds with one stone if they make the case that the economy stinks because too many I’ll-informed voters were seduced into voting for an unqualified candidate.

Hell, come to think of it, he can kill three birds while he’s at it. Connect their seduction to a corrupted journalist class.

Cleombrotus on July 10, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Caddell’s piece was good…i hope Rs listen…and imho, they need to right these points on 3 by 5 cards, and practice until they mermorize them (yes, i’m being condescending to the party of stupid)

There are plenty of other questionable assumptions like this scattered all throughout the bill. Consider:

-Will employers drop their insurance coverage en masse, knowing that their employees can get insurance on the exchanges? Democrats assume not, but there are signs that may not be the case.

-Can Medicare be cut by $500 billion without undermining quality of care? Democrats assume so, but the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is doubtful.

-Can Medicaid handle about 15 million new recipients? Democrats assume so, but doctors are already loath to accept Medicaid because it pays so poorly.

-Can you increase the number of people demanding medical services, without a corresponding increase in the supply of services, without a huge spike in prices? Democrats assume so, but common sense casts doubt on this proposition.

With every contestable assumption built into the bill, the odds that the whole package will fail in some way increase substantially. Suppose an 80 percent chance of success on each of these five guesses; in that case, the likelihood that all of them will be correct is only 33 percent.

And because the components of the bill are so intertwined, a failure of one assumption could lead to a catastrophic collapse of the entire scheme, like a house of cards.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-dont-bet-obamacare_648166.html

there’s more.

r keller on July 10, 2012 at 5:41 PM

If the election was today, I guarantee you would have seen/heard enough campaign ads to convince you to vote for Romney.

He’s keeping his powder dry – the “real” race begins after Labor Day; he’s letting Obama spend as much money as he possibly can right now while holding his own in reserve for when it really counts.

Kinda like Reagan did with Gorbachev and the nuclear arms build-up. The Soviet Union fell without the US having to fire a single shot.

TeresainFortWorth on July 10, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Watch RCP moving averages – Obama has been moving south for over a month now – if you look at recent likely voter polls in each state Romney and Obama are tied 266 apiece – Iowa is a toss up.

An incumbent, with the bully pulpit, with a media heavily in the tank for him, outspending by 3-1 in TV adds is tied? Considering many of these polls probably over sample democrats Romney is probably in front.

Obama is that weak. Romney is no great shakes, but being the non-Obama is a huge asset. People vote their pocket book and the economy is just getting worse.

Everyone need to chill.

Zomcon JEM on July 10, 2012 at 5:44 PM

even in a nation of low-information voters, we must already be approaching the moment when economic stagnation is mostly priced into the polls, no?

Not so, and by a long shot.

Businesses have held out hope of a revival all through the first two quarters, even in the face of strong headwinds from looming taxmageddon, regulatory fiat and O-Care, but capitulation is nigh.

Similarly, households have bravely tried to fight the good fight all year long but will soon want nothing more than to crawl under the covers and wait out the storms.

In fact, you will only know the coming recession is fully priced into the polls when there is some sign of voter capitulation. That’s when the numbers will finally begin to turn.

With unemployment poised to grow, deficits poised to explode, and recession about to be announced, I’d expect voters will decide in August or September and The Won will be down by at least ten by October. There is a Wave coming.

MTF on July 10, 2012 at 5:45 PM

Obama.Tax. A majority hates the thing, far more people REALLY hate the thing than love it. It’s simple and easy to understand. The Republicans have fought and won this public opinion battle before. RomneyCare is an issue but the federalism response will be good enough for the independents and the Tea Partiers have no choice.

Bombs away.

LukeinNE on July 10, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Exactly. Its the 2010 midterms, part deux.

TexasDan on July 10, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I thought he peaked in 2009 with the $800 Billion Stimulus, but OTaxACare hasn’t peaked yet.

So yes, we need to pound the economy until everyone has heard it 8 million times…x 2.

kirkill on July 10, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Kinda like Reagan did with Gorbachev and the nuclear arms build-up. The Soviet Union fell without the US having to fire a single shot.

TeresainFortWorth on July 10, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Implying romney is reagan. Implying romney is good at politics. Everything about romney’s career has shown the opposite. I remember the delusion before 2008. It’ll be sobering after november for a lot of people here.

Flapjackmaka on July 10, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Also, doesn’t Obama tend to hurt himself just by appearing? He does better by hiding out and not putting his face in front of voters much. As the election ramps up, he’s going to get more and more face time, and people will remember how sick of him they are, and connect the economy dots.

Plus, Obamacare.

TexasDan on July 10, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Maybe so, but you were very quiet for the first 5 plus. Congrats all the same. ; )

Bmore on July 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Well, of course I was carbon_footprint the first five years.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:49 PM

In the past month Obama outspent Romney 3-1 in swing states. In a poll with no internals, Obama expanded his “lead” by zero percent….Yesterday thehill.com published their poll showing 56% of likely voters say Obama changed the USA for the worse…today ABC/Washington Post publishes a poll of registered voters with a Democrat sample of +9…even bigger than the 2008 election…and the poll said Obama and Romney are tied….

Romney may not be running a perfect campaign but he is doing well…

We still need to elect the more and more conservatives to the House Senate, Governors state offices, county commissioners etc..

DVPTexFla on July 10, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Romney cant even run on tax hikes because of mittenscare. Guy has no arrows in his quiver.

Thats the price of nominating him

Flapjackmaka on July 10, 2012 at 5:51 PM

He “peaked” for me right before he told “Joe the Plumber” he wanted to “share the wealth”. I knew he was a political hack and a posuer before that, but after that, I knew he was poison. When he said that it made the hair on the back of my neck stand on end. All the ghosts of past malignant rulers appeared,in consciousness, before me and laughed maniacally as they burned in painful ecstacy.

Soap Mactavish on July 10, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Here’s an idea for an ad … Mitt Romney wakes up in the middle of the night, turns on the light and says: “Honey wake up, you won’t believe the dream I just had.”

msmveritas on July 10, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Bmore on July 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Well, of course I was carbon_footprint the first five years.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:49 PM

He’s a broom and dustpan, you have a lot of foot prints to clean up Mr Carbon_footprint dude… ;p

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Bmore on July 10, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Well, of course I was carbon_footprint the first five years.

the new aesthetic on July 10, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Here’s a broom and dustpan, you have a lot of foot prints to clean up Mr Carbon_footprint dude… ;p

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Dag nabit, that was suppose to be here’s not he’s…

SWalker on July 10, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Mitt = Not Obama, and that’s all he needs to be.

I’m under no illusions that Mitt will do what needs to be done to turn this country around…that will take a conservative administration in the future…it’s enough if he just slows down the steep decline enough to buy us some time.

AUINSC on July 10, 2012 at 5:58 PM

I honestly see the logic behind the rope-a-dope theory of Romney’s campaign so far. His team has been on the ball (e.g. the Solyndra speech), some of the “response” videos that came out almost instantaneously.

Remember one thing: While some of us may think Romney’s a bit squishy, he’s no McCain in the execution department. His team is obviously very disciplined (on the spectrum of political campaign discipline). I can guarantee you that Romney isn’t shooting this from the hip like McCain did. He has a plan, and has prepared for the exigencies, like any CEO worth his salt.

My prediction: it will be evident when Mitt releases the Kraken, and the needle will move in his favor. Mitt wins in November.

mr.blacksheep on July 10, 2012 at 6:05 PM

It starts with the economy. You can intertwine Ocare with the economy very easily in terms low info voters will understand – misplaced priorities, it will raise costs at a time we need disposable income going elsewhere, and then the tricks it took to pass it in the first place. The senators that needed kickbacks, the drug lobbists, etc…all the stuff Caddell wrote about.

Now you’ve labeled Obama as deceitful, and from there you can expand on things like Solynda, F&F, on and on to reinforce that label. Now you can tell the 53% they were deceived when they voted for him. People don’t like to admit they were wrong, but if you can convince them they were lied to then it isn’t all that hard to get them to state clearly they will switch teams.

Caddell did a great job of laying it all out. It kinda crystalized what the gameplan should be in my mind at least. I just don’t know if the timing is right to really go full throttle with this yet. I don’t think necessarily right after the convention like so many have stated. Probably more like just before. Get their attention before, and then use the convention venue as transistioning to the alternative.

stldave on July 10, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Boy, I’m sure Romney really wishes he had matched Obama dollar for dollar over the past few weeks and mounted an aggressive campaign while absolutely no one was paying attention.

Looking at the polls, I think Romney is playing his hand perfectly.

The only real “dirt” on Romney was Bain, and that was always laughable. The amount of jobs “lost” on one of their investments was about the same amount of jobs Obama has lost in 15 seconds of office.

People are going to fall asleep in the Fall Obama is still making Bain the cornerstone of the campaign.

BradTank on July 10, 2012 at 6:09 PM

If Romney passes the threshold test of “Can he be president?” he still has to offer a plan, a vision, an alternative.

Relying on the “Anybody but Obama” vote is too big of a risk.

SteveMG on July 10, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I agree.

Romney needs to see this video and quickly:

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/dont-eat-your-dog-the-moral-case-for-free-enterprise/

That’s a beginning plan to counter the Dems on the economy.

INC on July 10, 2012 at 6:11 PM

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