Jobs report: 80K jobs added, 8.2% jobless rate; Update: Worst quarter in 2 years

posted at 8:33 am on July 6, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The jobs report for June shows another gloomy month in the US economy.  Job growth amounted to a disappointing 80,000, below analyst expectations of 90-100K, while the jobless rate remained the same at 8.2%:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Professional and business services added jobs, and employment in other major industries changed little over the month. …

In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was essentially unchanged at 5.4 million. These individuals
accounted for 41.9 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio were unchanged in June at 63.8 and 58.6 percent,
respectively. (See table A-1.)

This is only a bare improvement over last month’s report, with its addition of 77,000, an upward revision from the report a month ago, which had May at 69,000. The average monthly job growth has been 75,000 over the last three months — when we need 125K-150K to keep up with population growth. It’s a measure that shows us going backwards … again.

The bad news gets even worse when looking at combined unemployment and underemployment, as measured by U-6.  That measure had dropped to a years-long low in March and April of 14.5%, but now has ticked upward two months in a row, and is back to 14.9%.  Joblessness among African-Americans jumped by 184,000 and the rate shot up from 13.6% to 14.4%, the highest it has been since December 2011.

Update: CNBC notes that the June report makes the second quarter of 2012 the worst hiring period in two years:

With yet another month of weak employment growth, the second quarter marks the weakest three-month period in two years.

May’s weak initial 69,000 report was revised upward to 77,000, which made the June number essentially flat.

There were a few bright spots: The overall work week edged higher by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours and average hourly earnings grew 6 cents to $23.50.

But it was an otherwise dismal report that will up the stakes in the race between President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Dismal, indeed.  No one can pretend that the Q2 figures are some sort of hiccup.  We are decelerating, and we’re decelerating from stagnation levels, which leaves us very few options as to the eventual destination.

The Associated Press also reports on the weakness of the economy:

U.S. employers added only 80,000 jobs in June, a third straight month of weak hiring that shows the economy is struggling three years after the recession ended.

The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent.

The economy has added just 75,000 jobs a month in the April-June quarter. That’s one-third of 226,000 a month created in the first quarter. Job creation is also trailing last year’s pace through the first six months of 2012.

Again, the direction is clear, as is the destination, unless we change direction on economic policy.  That is, of course, why we have elections.

The AP report offers this curious analysis:

A weaker job market has made consumers less confident. They have pulled back on spending, even though gas prices have plunged.

I think they have this backwards.  Gas prices have dropped significantly because demand has fallen.

Update II: This is a good time to remind people of the implications of Barack Obama’s immigration policy change this month.  The pledge to issue work permits means that we may potentially add 1.2 million workers to the workforce over the next two years.  That means we will have to add jobs at a rate closer to 200,000 per month just to keep up with population growth and the policy change.

Update III: The AP article also reports that one-third of the job gain came from temp hires.  That may or may not be a bad thing; temp hires usually presage some expansion, but that’s something you want to see more toward the beginning of a recovery than three years into it.  At this stage, and with these low overall numbers, it looks a lot more like bet-hedging.

Update IV: Here is a graph of the U-6 measure since the BLS began reporting it in 1994:

The U-6 level has dropped relatively little in this recovery.  In 1994, a much lower level contributed to a landslide Republican midterm victory.  In 2004, George W. Bush was considered vulnerably on the economy with a much lower U-6 level — remember the Democratic Party nominee John Kerry pontificating about the “jobless recovery”?  With the U-6 ticking back upward and the civilian population participation rate flatlining near its 30-year low, this indicates that American voters may be itching for a big change in economic policy.

Update V: In case you missed the news when it broke, here’s what it looked like:

John Harwood points out that the public sector only lost 4,000 jobs, so the problem is not a lack of government jobs, contra Obama.


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mitt says obama promised to keep the unemployment rate below 8 percent. the libs are going to love that clip, because come november i can guarantee its going to be below 8%.

renalin on July 6, 2012 at 10:24 AM

According to you, the promise was to KEEP unemployment under 8%, not for it to dip below 8% a few months before the election.

I have no problem with Romney critics, but it would be good if you could stop just pulling things out of your butt to complain about.

Night Owl on July 6, 2012 at 11:17 AM

He keeps moving those goal posts to make his own pessimism sound more credible (he calls it ‘realism’ nevermind it is not based in one single fact, other than his preposterous oracular predictions :)

jimver on July 6, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Oh and add FloatingRock to that as well…The guy constantly derails every thread with his blatant Ron Paul/Gary Johnson propaganda…We get it, you’re gonna vote 3rd party but it’s the same damn post MULTIPLE times in EVERY thread he’s in. It’s not even clever.

Why is that allowed?

jaygatz33 on July 6, 2012 at 11:36 AM

You just have to give the Messiah more time to quell the head winds.

bayview on July 6, 2012 at 11:36 AM

I’m not asking you to defend Romney nor do I want the current slime to remain in the White House, but I’m a realist. I do not see commie care being repealed if the GOP takes over, if you do fine. Just don’t ask me to drink that koolaid any more because it got stale over many years of GOP talk and then betrayal.

bgibbs1000 on July 6, 2012 at 11:25 AM

No, a realist would see what the options are at this point and deal with it instead of bitching and moaning like a teenager. The days of being able to just vote and then forget about all this are over. Make a stink, be the greasy wheel, but the first thing is getting that a$$hole out of the White House. THEN pressure the GOP. We all know they won’t do anything without pressure. You don’t need to keep harping on it.

Night Owl on July 6, 2012 at 11:38 AM

You just have to give the Messiah more time to quell the head winds.

bayview on July 6, 2012 at 11:36 AM

See Capt. Ed’s post on Romney’s speech..Obie still has not dialed it in yet..Seems to be taking on water!..:)

Dire Straits on July 6, 2012 at 11:40 AM

mitt says obama promised to keep the unemployment rate below 8 percent. the libs are going to love that clip, because come november i can guarantee its going to be below 8%.

renalin on July 6, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Yeah, the “official number” can be whatever they want.

tetriskid on July 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I may be wrong but would hiring temps be a way of skirting ObamaTax and or paying any benefits so it essentially saves employers money? Another fail of Obamacare and a hidden consequence we are just realizing.

1bunny on July 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

1.2 million work permits? Otherwise known as about 2 years worth of jobs.

besser tot als rot on July 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Romney’s speech was good but he still doesn’t articulate exactly how obamacare is killing job creation. An army of accountants can’t tell a business owner what the costs of his employees healthcare will be going forward. Without knowing the cost of hiring, you don’t hire. He also needs to explain how Health Savings Account are a large part of the answer. High deductible plans like HSAs, especially for young employees, can cut premiums in half.

phillysfinest on July 6, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to June, 2012:

January 2009:

Civilian non-institution population: 234.739m
Civilian labour force: 153.716m
Employed: 142.099m
Employment-population ratio: 61.3
Unemployed: 11.616m
Not in labour force: 81.023m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: 3.141m
Part-time, but want full-time job: 8.038m
Participation Rate: 65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed: 19.8
Unemployment rate: 7.6%
.
.
June 2012:

Civilian non-institutional population: 243.155m
Civilian labour force: 155.163m
Employed: 142.415m
Employment-population ratio: 58.6
Unemployed: 12.749m
Not in labour force: 87.992m
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: 3.945m
Part-time, but want full-time job: 8.210m
Participation rate: 63.86%
Average Weeks Unemployed: 39.9
Unemployment rate: 8.2%
.
.
Percentage Change:

Civilian non-institutional population: +3.585%
Civilian labour force: +0.941%
Employed: +0.222%
Employment-population ratio: -4.405%
Unemployed: +9.754%
Not in labour force: +8.601%
Not in the labour force, but who want a job now: +25.597%
Part-time, but want full-time job: +2.14%
Participation rate: -2.504%
Average Weeks Unemployed: +101.515%
Unemployment rate: +7.895%
.
.
Jobs Picture Comparison: January 2009 v. June 2012

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/jobs-picture-comparison-january-2009-v.html

M2RB: The Verve

Resist We Much on July 6, 2012 at 11:50 AM

I may be wrong but would hiring temps be a way of skirting ObamaTax and or paying any benefits so it essentially saves employers money? Another fail of Obamacare and a hidden consequence we are just realizing.

I believe you will see small businesses break into even smaller units in order to get under the 50 employee level, i.e. a restaraunt that becomes three companies, like Joe’s kitchen, Joe’s Bar, Joe’s waitstaff, etc.

Temporary workers are another solution where the taxes would be born by the temporary worker firm. Not sure how it applies to part time workers vs. full time employees

phillypolitics on July 6, 2012 at 11:52 AM

That means we will have to add jobs at a rate closer to 200,000 per month just to keep up with population growth and the policy change.

200,000 has always been the “rule of thumb” number to account for population growth and immigration.

One thing people need to VERY CLEARLY understand: As long as the promise of an increase in capital gains and dividend taxes hangs over the head of investors, there is not going to be any increase in the investment needed to increase jobs. Obama has set conditions that GUARANTEE a reduction in the past of economic growth.

crosspatch on July 6, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Should be “pace” of economic growth.

crosspatch on July 6, 2012 at 11:53 AM

You know what bothers me the most? Obama today talking about why he went into politics, ran for the Senate and then became President. He saw the American Dream falling away. He wants four more years to finish the repair job.

Holy Cow! He’s delusional.

But, worst of all is that means what he’s doing to the country HE HAS DONE ON PURPOSE.

MaggiePoo on July 6, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, January 2009 – June 2012
January 2009:

Total: 134.580m
Total Private: 112.041m
Goods Producing: 20.245m
Manufacturing: 12.713m
Service Providing, Private: 91.796m
Government: 22.539m
Federal Government: 2.792m
.
.
June 2012:

Total: 133.088m
Total Private: 111.145m
Goods Producing: 18.314m
Manufacturing: 11.962m
Service Providing, Private: 92.831m
Government: 21.943m
Federal Government: 2.806.0m
.
.
Percentage Change:

Total: -1.109%
Total private: -0.8%
Goods producing: -9.538%
Manufacturing: -5.907%
Service providing, private: +1.128%
Government: -2.644%
Federal government: +0.501%

Resist We Much on July 6, 2012 at 11:55 AM

yep, the unemployment rate in october will be closer to 7.
renalin on July 6, 2012 at 11:17 AM

They add no substance (still waiting on an answer as to what they base their prediction that unemployment will be going below 8% in the next few months)and are annoying as hell.

Opposing viewpoints are fine, but constant concern trolling and douchebaggery kills any enjoyment from reading the site imo.

jaygatz33 on July 6, 2012 at 11:32 AM

There’s a limit to some people’s intellect, at some point they are reduced to automatons reciting ad nauseam the same ole boring and predictable monologues and spouting the same trite memes and critiques…you’d just hope that such pessimism machines come with a remote so you can turn them off sometimes….

jimver on July 6, 2012 at 11:59 AM

One thing people need to VERY CLEARLY understand: As long as the promise of an increase in capital gains and dividend taxes hangs over the head of investors, there is not going to be any increase in the investment needed to increase jobs. Obama has set conditions that GUARANTEE a reduction in the past of economic growth.

crosspatch on July 6, 2012 at 11:53 AM

True.

There was an academic on Squawk Box this morning (best morning show when Joe and Michelle Caruso-Cabrerra are there) who with a colleague at Berkeley started studying ‘Uncertainty’ and its effects on the economy and jobs back in about 2007.

They include everything I think we’ve discussed in their formula and say it’s as bad as if not worse than just after 9/11.

Bottom line. All the uncertainty over policy, actions of the Fed, Europe, Taxes, debt ceiling, regulations have cost the economy 2.5 MILLION JOBS since Obama came in.

He said the best short term help would be for Washington to kick the can down the road re the fiscal cliff to give whoever wins the election time to breath and get it right.

MaggiePoo on July 6, 2012 at 12:01 PM

I may be wrong but would hiring temps be a way of skirting ObamaTax and or paying any benefits so it essentially saves employers money?

1bunny on July 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

that’s exactly what it is…

jimver on July 6, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Unexpectedly?

krome on July 6, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Did someone say “War on Women”??? I’ve got ya a “War on Women.” Check it out:

In January 2009, the number of women employed was: 67.007m

In June 2012, the number of women employed was: 61.863m

In January 2009, the number of unemployed women was: 4.286m

In June 2012, the number of unemployed women was: 5.566m

The percentage change in the number of women employed between January
2009 and June 2012 has been a DECREASE of 7.677%.

The percentage change in the number of women unemployed between January 2009 and June 2012 has been an INCREASE of 29.865%.

Resist We Much on July 6, 2012 at 12:14 PM

libfreeordie

400+ comments and still no devastating come backs by Lib.

teacherman on July 6, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Resist We Much on July 6, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Didn’t say who you got the data from but the percentages don’t mean much because the data doesn’t figure in the people added to the work force in the past 42 months. 125-150,000/month = you do the math.

MaggiePoo on July 6, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Resist We Much on July 6, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Same problem. Underlying work force was added to constantly during that period, except for the ones who totally gave up looking. And they count in the U6 number which ROSE TO 14.9 unemployed.

There’s really something wrong with the liberal/progressive mind. They seem to be able to think only statically. They all want ‘change’ but they have no idea what ‘change’ means.

MaggiePoo on July 6, 2012 at 12:25 PM

MaggiePoo on July 6, 2012 at 12:20 PM

If you would have gone to my website, you would have been able to click on the links. Then, you would have been taken directly to — surprise, surprise, surprise — the Department of Labour, Bureau of Labour and Statistics.

The economy hasn’t been adding 125,000-150,000/month for the last 42 months.

I run the numbers every month.

Thanks for playing.

Resist We Much on July 6, 2012 at 12:28 PM

It’s just the President keeping his promise to keep Unemployment over 8%.

Axeman on July 6, 2012 at 12:32 PM

So what? The American people still give Obama a 50% approval rating–absolutely regardless of how bad things are or will be. We have nothing to complain about and deserve all the lousy unemployment reports we get.

BillCarson on July 6, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Apologies if this is upthread already – from Johnny Dollar’s twitter feed:
RT @SenLeeComs: Wow. Obama has used the EXACT SAME LINE 30 times to explain away bad #jobs numbers http://bit.ly/N3jzz2

Quisp on July 6, 2012 at 12:42 PM

“The Democratic Convention is $27 million in debt. They had to cancel the kick-off event at the Charlotte Motor Speedway. A speedway is the perfect place for the Democratic Convention. You go around in circles, turn left every few seconds, and you end up right where you started. ” — Jay Leno

Schadenfreude on July 6, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Schadenfreude on July 6, 2012 at 12:42 PM

LOL!

Night Owl on July 6, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Good link, Quisp, thanks.

pambi on July 6, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Just imagine the Economic mess Obama will inherit if he’s
re-elected!!

ToddPA on July 6, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Just imagine the Economic mess Obama will inherit if he’s
re-elected!!

ToddPA on July 6, 2012 at 12:59 PM

..and the logical extension to that statement is, of course, whom will he blame?

(Answer: Bush!)

The War Planner on July 6, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Just imagine the Economic mess Obama will inherit if he’s
re-elected!!

ToddPA on July 6, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Loool :)

jimver on July 6, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Just imagine the Economic mess Obama will inherit if he’s
re-elected!!

ToddPA on July 6, 2012 at 12:59 PM

That is a line Romney ought to use in the debates! It will have Obama stuttering and uhming himself silly.

Night Owl on July 6, 2012 at 1:29 PM

I may be wrong but would hiring temps be a way of skirting ObamaTax and or paying any benefits so it essentially saves employers money?

1bunny on July 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Mostly-right. PlaceboCare counts salaried and hourly temps as employees for the purposes of the Roberts Tax.

I predict a lot of companies will go to an independent-contractor workforce to get out of paying the Roberts Tax.

Steve Eggleston on July 6, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Just imagine the Economic mess Obama will inherit if he’s
re-elected!!

ToddPA on July 6, 2012 at 12:59 PM

That is a line Romney ought to use in the debates! It will have Obama stuttering and uhming himself silly.

Night Owl on July 6, 2012 at 1:29 PM

+1 TRILLION

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on July 6, 2012 at 2:46 PM

(In fact, there were no months in the Bush Administration in which there were 400,000 jobs created).

Source: The BLS

bifidis

Why would there be? We were at full employment during most of the Bush Administration. Can’t hire people that don’t exist.

xblade on July 6, 2012 at 2:54 PM

This jobs report has served its purpose, to distract us from continued excoriation of John Roberts for his stee-yupid Obamacare ruling. But wait. Hasn’t Obamacare made being unemployed a good thing? Why be a productive member of society and get hammered with all the new O-care taxes on top of all the other taxes, pay your own mortgage, pay ever-increasing tuition for your kids’ leftist education, pay for your own cell phone, pay your own food bill? Really getting to feel pretty foolish to show up for work every day. What did Pelosi say that time? After Obamacare we can all go be sculptors, or something. Forget your unprogressive work ethic. Tsk. So boozwah. Obamacare has put us over the top. Why bother? They can renickname the law “I-Don’t-Care“. Thank you, Justice Roberts. Now if I can only get my employer to fire me without cause, I’ll be sittin’ pretty.

curved space on July 6, 2012 at 3:39 PM

I remember when Hillary was running for State Senate here in New York and she promised 100,000 jobs, yes the figure is correct, one hundred thousand jobs if she gets elected. What is it with these politicians promising jobs? I don’t care who gets elected there won’t be jobs until the taxes go way down. The USA has the highest corporate tax in the world, do you blame them for doing their business out of the country? The population hasn’t a clue about the taxes shouldered by corporations. The profit on a gallon of gas is about a nickel while it’s nineteen percent on a gallon to NYS. $3.89 a gallon to the tax payer and $0.73.91 cents of it goes to the State as a tax, whoops, forgot the sales tax.

mixplix on July 6, 2012 at 5:05 PM

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