ADP report estimates 176K private-sector jobs added in June

posted at 9:01 am on July 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will produce the June jobs report, but we have a look at two key indicators this morning.  First, weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 374,000, a decline from last week’s adjusted number of 388,000:

In the week ending June 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 374,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 387,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending June 23, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 23 was 3,306,000, an increase of 4,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,302,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,304,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,307,250.

Last week’s report was at 386K initially, and we can probably expect this week’s number to rise next week, too.  Thanks to the holiday, the number may rise more than usual; this data series gets volatile around holidays, and especially Independence Day, for some reason.  However, assuming the adjustment is small, it’s not much of a change.  The changing level of claims continues to be within the statistical-noise band; this has been a pretty stable indicator for more than a year now, so there isn’t anything to indicate a significant change in the labor market in either direction.

ADP, the payroll processing giant, provides today’s second indicator, and on the surface it looks more positive:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 176,000 from May to June, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from April to May was revised up slightly, from the initial estimate of 133,000 to a revised estimate of 136,000.

Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 160,000 in June, after rising a revised 137,000 in May. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in June. Manufacturing employment added 4,000, reversing May’s decline.

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 11,000 and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 72,000 in June. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 93,000 that same period. Of the 72,000 jobs created by medium- sized payrolls, 7,000 jobs were created by the goods producing sector and 65,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.

The number on its own would show modest growth in the job market above the level needed for population growth (between 125K-150K), if the number reliably indicated the BLS data.  However, ADP’s reports almost always overstate job growth as measured by BLS.  ADP’s measure of job growth in May, 133,000, is almost double that from the BLS report of 69,000.

ABC News reports that analyst expectations fall in line with that same ADP/BLS ratio:

The Labor Department’s June jobs report–the most closely-watched economic number leading up to the presidential election–will be released on Friday and economists don’t expect much summer sunshine in the nation’s unemployment picture.

Economists expect that employers added around 90,000 jobs in June, higher than the 69,000 jobs added in May, but lower than what is needed for a full economic recovery from the last recession that began with the mortgage meltdown in 2008.

Again, bear in mind that the economy has to add 125K-150K jobs each month to keep up with population growth — and more than that now to keep up with the work permits being issued by the federal government as part of Barack Obama’s new immigration policies.  A 90K growth in jobs would look bleak, representing a negative practical growth rate in jobs, and approaching a literal negative number.

Another report shows some upside to a higher estimate, however, with some good news on layoffs:

Meanwhile, the number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell in June to its lowest level in over a year, suggesting employers were not rapidly downsizing even as the economic recovery slows, a report on Thursday showed.

Employers announced 37,551 planned job cuts last month, down 39.3 percent from 61,887 in May, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Job cuts were also down 9.4 percent from June last year when 41,432 reductions were announced. Layoffs were at their lowest level since May 2011.

Despite recent signs that the economic recovery is losing steam, employers appear reluctant to shed too many workers, John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.

“While it does not take long to shrink payrolls, it can take a significant amount of time to rebuild them, particularly as reports of a growing skills gap become more widespread,” he said.

I’ll predict that the number tomorrow will be 105,000 jobs added, with a jobless rate of 8.2%.  What are your predictions on the jobs-added figure?  Take the poll:


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poll closed?

something tells me they will fudge the numbers for dear leader with a revision the following month…

cmsinaz on July 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

So what. If the number is somewhat optimistic the media will crow about it until the White House puts out the adjusted (down) number 2am on a Saturday morning.

DaveDief on July 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I have no idea, but whatever it is the WH will spin it as a positive for them so it doesn’t really matter what I think.

txmomof6 on July 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

As we’ve seen with the recent polling, the general public thinks even 60,000 or so jobs added isn’t bad at all, so if Obama gets a number over 100,000, it’s a huge boost to him.

gumbyandpokey on July 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Is this thing on? Doesn’t seem to be recording my vote.

JimK on July 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Pool’s closed…uh, I mean Poll’s closed!!

It won’t be enough jobs to be positive, but the press will still spin it that way…Hey, 50,000 new jobs is better than NO new jobs, right?

Puke.

PetecminMd on July 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Poll closed due to overwhelming response.

The Rogue Tomato on July 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

How the MSM allows this Administration to repeatedly increase the first time unemployment application data — week after week for over a year – is beyond unbelievable.

I also note that they MSM are peddling some non-existent housing “boom.”

matthew8787 on July 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

So what. If the number is somewhat optimistic the media will crow about it until the White House puts out the adjusted (down) number 2am on a Saturday morning.

DaveDief on July 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

They’re already crowing about the claims for unemployment “dropping.” I expect a higher number tomorrow to fluff Obama. Of course the books are cooked..

sandee on July 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

It’s a nice uptick, but we are still not expecting much from tomorrow’s report. There has been growing evidence that the Spring slowdown is easing and business is beginning to pick up again, but Europe continues to be the dark cloud overhead. 4-week average on 1st time claims holding steady; we’ll see what the jobs report tomorrow has to say. We’ll be pleasantly surprised if it is much above +100K. Meanwhile, the focus is about to shift to earnings season, and in particular guidance for the rest of the year …

TouchdownBuddha on July 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Sorry about the poll issue; fixing it now, may take 10 mins or so for it to unlock.

Ed Morrissey on July 5, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Hate to say it, but I’m not sure I believe BLS numbers at this point anyway. So, I’ll say they adjust the rate below 8 due to job creation that came roaring back.

changer1701 on July 5, 2012 at 9:14 AM

…something tells me they will fudge the numbers for dear leader with a revision the following month…

cmsinaz on July 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

…has there been a month where that hasn’t happened?

KOOLAID2 on July 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Poll should be open now.

Ed Morrissey on July 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Take the poll:

Clearly a Dem poll. “We will tell you your opinion.”

Happy Nomad on July 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

…where’s the little circle to check off…YOU LIE…!!!?

KOOLAID2 on July 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

This is how it will go.

Stays at 8.2% : WH announces that things are leveling off and looking up.

Rise above 8.2% : WH announces that more people are now seeking jobs, since the economy is improving and the private sector is doing fine.

Nobody will question as to how many more 99′rs have dropped off the roles and that they aren’t counting the 50% of college graduates who moved in with Mom and Dad last month because they couldn’t find a job, yet aren’t counted on the unemployment roles.

LoganSix on July 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I still see the same people holding signs on my way to work..

Nothing has changed…

Electrongod on July 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

KOOLAID2 on July 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM

you’re right :)

cmsinaz on July 5, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Over 200K 3.33% (1 votes)

hmm, now who could that be?

Flora Duh on July 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Well retail sales numbers are not good. That usually is a pretty good indicator of the jobs number.

gophergirl on July 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

The country has slipped into a new malaise.
No way the media would let this be spun for
3 years if Romney were in office.

Look a squirrel.

Bensonofben on July 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Over 200K 3.33% (1 votes)

hmm, now who could that be?

Flora Duh on July 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Mr. President? Mr. President, is that you? ;-)

Ed Morrissey on July 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I predict they’ll either pad the number at over 200,000 to get people hyped up about employment growth and when it starts to fall blame the GOP for continuing to make healthcare uncertain, or they will pad it really low and start adjusting it upward as election day gets closer.

bgibbs1000 on July 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

92000 jobs. UE rate 8.3%

Media – Jobs number holds steady in improving economy.

crazywater on July 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Mr. President? Mr. President, is that you? ;-)

Ed Morrissey on July 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I confess it was me. I just don’t trust them not to try something with the numbers.

bgibbs1000 on July 5, 2012 at 9:30 AM

92000 jobs. UE rate 8.3%

Media – Jobs number holds steady in improving economy.

crazywater on July 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Yeah, I don’t see how we get up to 176k. I think more like 120k or a bit less.

eyedoc on July 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

The American people are so gullible, they will sweep this poser in for reelection with a 8.1 % rate.

Conservative4ev on July 5, 2012 at 9:33 AM

7.9 unemployment, due to counted workforce shrinkage.

tomg51 on July 5, 2012 at 9:35 AM

O/T I hope this gets its owh headline later today, such an important piece.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304708604577505210356532588.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Looking forward to the day when doctors are just cogs in the wheel who care more about data entry than about patients? Coming soon to a theater near you.

txmomof6 on July 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

“Yeah, I don’t see how we get up to 176k. I think more like 120k or a bit less.”

120,000 would be a HUGE win for Obama. Not great factually, but politically huge.

gumbyandpokey on July 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I have a hangover.

I’d be interested to know what sorts of jobs these are, engineers and skilled trades….or parts-snapper-together people at unionized GM plants.

Bishop on July 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Last week’s report was at 386K initially, and we can probably expect this week’s number to rise next week, too.

Probably?

MidniteRambler on July 5, 2012 at 9:40 AM

“Yeah, I don’t see how we get up to 176k. I think more like 120k or a bit less.”

120,000 would be a HUGE win for Obama. Not great factually, but politically huge.

gumbyandpokey on July 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

If you say so.

eyedoc on July 5, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Lay-offs are only down because employers can only cut payrolls so much before they start compromising their ability to perform basic services.

If normal trends of expansion and contraction were still in play a reduction in lay-offs would be a good sign. After 3 years of fools regulating the employment fabric of our nation–i.e., tinkering with the mechanics–trends have lost their significance.

What fools we are to allow such self-serving cretins access to the family silver.

rwenger43 on July 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I am astonished that this country has been able to weather (so far), Obama’s incessant meddling, incompetence and corruption.

We get rid of this idiot Obama this fall and watch this country soar again.

NoDonkey on July 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Does this mean we’re still in the ditch and Oblahblah is gunnin’ the engine?
If this is the best ADP can do, would you want them doing your payroll?
Imagine how great this country would be if there were no libs ever in charge and the leaders followed the constitution.

Kissmygrits on July 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I am not voting!
The government numbers are rigged.
It doesn’t matter what I know or think

Delsa on July 5, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Even if the numbers suck on steroids, Dear Leader will tell us about how much worse it would have been without him, and the GOP is obstructing His efforts to create (government/union) jobs and that it is all Bush’s fault.

krome on July 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Monday (Reuters/AP): The economy will be lousy for years to come no matter who is president, i.e. it’s not Obama’s fault and Romney won’t help things.

Today (Reuters/AP): The economy is back, thanks to Obama.

kevinkristy on July 5, 2012 at 10:08 AM

O/T I hope this gets its owh headline later today, such an important piece.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304708604577505210356532588.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Looking forward to the day when doctors are just cogs in the wheel who care more about data entry than about patients? Coming soon to a theater near you.

txmomof6 on July 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I had an out-of-work medical transcriptionist tell me the other day about her most recent neurology exam.

Seems that she never saw or spoke with the doctor who administered her exam. He sat at a keyboard in another room. A tech took care of her. With the new system it is more important for the doctor to enter the data than to talk with the patient, hence the transcriptionist is out of work.

I wonder if doctors realize they are Barry’s equivalent to ATMs? And who could possibly think this is progress? Maybe by lowering the personal skills required for Physicians, Barry’s team thinks that will ultimately improve medical care. Kinda like improving our political leadership by electing unqualified incompetent hacks. So maybe my OOW transcriptionist friend just needs to go back to school long enough to make the jump from Data Transcriptionist to Glorified Data Transcriptionist, M.D. Now that I think about it, I’m sure that is the solution that would make everyone happier, healthier and more satisfied in their lives.

rwenger43 on July 5, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I’d be interested to know what sorts of jobs these are, engineers and skilled trades….or parts-snapper-together people at unionized GM plants.

Bishop on July 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

More likely jobs involving fries.

Happy Nomad on July 5, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I do a lot of contract work for bosses I never see.

Recently some have started calling me an employee, and I now get a check stub from ADP.

So I wonder how many times I am being counted in the Newly Created Part-Time Jobs category? I’m still doing the same work I did before but having taxes taken out.

rwenger43 on July 5, 2012 at 10:17 AM

The bigger question is always, “how many will have left the labor force over the past month?”

MNHawk on July 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Last week’s report was at 386K initially, and we can probably expect this week’s number to rise next week, too. Thanks to the holiday, the number may rise more than usual; this data series gets volatile around holidays, and especially Independence Day, for some reason.

Unemployment runs in six-month intervals. So a lot of people think their benefits automatically re-starts, but it doesn’t until you refile. This creates a lag of about a month as people are moved to whatever is their next level, usually from state unemployment to federal.

So I’d expect end of July or August to be nominal since the mild winter decelerated usual seasonal layoffs. Whoever was laid off last winter/spring will be re-filing, creating a dip one month, then a spike.

Whichever month had the heaviest layoffs count forward six months. IIRC, it was May, which puts us right at November.

This is why Barry said the “private sector was fine” and was bitching about state layoffs. School, holidays and seasonal jobs creates a huge amount of volatility. Add the public sector, and this month might be the big unemployment lull.

budfox on July 5, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I said 175,000 to 200,000, with his Lection on the line I think OBlahBLah had Axelgrease drag the severed horse head out of Roberts trash bin and drag it over to the heads of the BLS!

I will be all too happy to remind you all of this prognostication tomorrow when the unemployment rate drops to 8% and the Presstitutes all HAil the kING who will eventually get it below 8% just in time to txt his peeps on their free OBLahBLah phones to rock the vote and rock the repunk voters!

Happy Dependence Decade!

ConcealedKerry on July 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

S T A G N A T I O N !

It’s ‘the new normal’.

GarandFan on July 5, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Well retail sales numbers are not good. That usually is a pretty good indicator of the jobs number.

gophergirl on July 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I was in three east coast malls over the past 2 weeks – each time a weekday afternoon – and each mall was dead.

matthew8787 on July 5, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Even if the numbers suck on steroids, Dear Leader will tell us about how much worse it would have been without him, and the GOP is obstructing His efforts to create (government/union) jobs and that it is all Bush’s fault.

krome on July 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Fine, let him say it, shout it from the rooftops. People will continue to tune him out or get angry.

The message you identified is a loser.

matthew8787 on July 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM

120,000 would be a HUGE win for Obama. Not great factually, but politically huge.

gumbyandpokey on July 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I agree that anything above 100K would be good politically, because they can shirk off the May 69,000 number as an aberration.

The more important number, however, is the rate: 8, 8.1, 8.2 etc

My worry is that so many are exiting the work force that Obama can drive the number below 8% and declare victory.

matthew8787 on July 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

See the commies even hacked Fast Eds polling, just doin a dry run for this fall when the SEIU readjusts the voting machines like they did in NV. You can trust that the Repunks have their heads up their backsides and are doing nothing to remedy this situation as the commies figure faster and easier ways to steal elections.

Besides whatever number it is tomorrow will be, according to the Presstitutes, amazingly good considering all the Global Baloney storms that have decimated the kINGS very fine economic Recovery Summer!

ConcealedKerry on July 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

The bigger question is always, “how many will have left the labor force over the past month?”

MNHawk on July 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Sure, but most people aren’t sharp enough to understand any of that. They’ll just look at the BLS number and it’s not a pretty picture.

eyedoc on July 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

From BLS:

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force:

May 2012, Seasonally Adjusted: 14.8%

NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on July 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

My worry is that so many are exiting the work force that Obama can drive the number below 8% and declare victory.

matthew8787 on July 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Doesn’t matter. Obama is a filthy liar. The numbers will be skewed no matter how many people are employed or unemployed.

Happy Nomad on July 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I predict that whatever the numbers actually are the WH will massage the statistics to show unemployment actually dropping to 8% or less. In fact, I’ll bet that the official unemployment figures will continue to decrease until after the election, proving that (a) Barry has made things better or (b) if Mitt wins, the real number will be shown and this will be proof that Romney has driven us into an actual depression.

Physics Geek on July 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Reuters already spinnning it.

Red Creek on July 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Why would many of these unemployed look for work when they can draw goberment welfare (unemployment checks) for two years? And now they will get free healthcare us workers provide?
Happy Dependence Decade!
Thank a liberal and remind the dependents to Thank You, if you have a job!

ConcealedKerry on July 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

rwenger43 on July 5, 2012 at 10:13 AM

This is closer than you think. One of my friends works as a developer for a startup that has a working prototype of a healthcare “booth”. Patient enters the booth, and it connects to a remote physician. Different items, such as stethoscope and blood pressure cuffs are in auto-drawers that the remote doctor can open for the patient to use. One of the biggest groups interested in the technology are truck stop locations. It sounds weird (even to me), but supposedly they’ve had some very positive testing results…

dominigan on July 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

We need to keep the unemployment number above 8% until November. It goes south of that and The One will be strutting and preening like a peacock.

MaxMBJ on July 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

We need to keep the unemployment number above 8% until November. It goes south of that and The One will be strutting and preening like a peacock.

MaxMBJ on July 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

So if we employ people we should fire some, lets see any Obama voters on staff, ah yes, these two will do nicely, Bayh Bayh!

ConcealedKerry on July 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

I haven’t checked these unemployment threads lately, but KeninCT is noticeably absent with his “Real American” remarks.

Did he score at desperatefordates.com, or did his troll funding run out?

Just curious.

VibrioCocci on July 5, 2012 at 11:17 AM

ADP is always too optimistic. The number will probably be in the 105k range, and the number will stay at 8.2%.

Regardless, no matter what the number is, both the administration and its cronies in the liberal media will spin it to look good for Obama.

milcus on July 5, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Any number will be reported to help out the Dear Leader with Recovery Summer II..

“COUNT IT!”

Khun Joe on July 5, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Wake me up when the revised numbers come out.

tdpwells on July 5, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I wonder if ADP polls its competitors or if they just use their own numbers. My company just switched to them from PrimePay. If they counted our staff as a gain, in reality that number would be static employment-wise, since most of our head count has remained the same for the past year or so.

AH_C on July 5, 2012 at 11:48 AM

It’s also the summer, when most seasonal business ramp up. Although, all those jobs end up going away again after September.

Tuari on July 5, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Over 200K  1.97%  (20 votes)

I voted “Over 200K” because it’s relatively certain that Obummer’s flunkies will fudge the numbers on every jobs report between now and election day!

KS Rex on July 5, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Think about this…176,000 jobs would be an average of 3520 jobs per state (and you know it wouldn’t be equal)… doesn’t sound promising to me.

Barred on July 5, 2012 at 11:57 AM

For those that don’t know, ADP is not in the business of human resources-related services. Their business is the management of other peoples’ money. At any given time, they hold a billion+ dollars and make a rather nice revenue stream from the interest alone.

Furthermore, a company such as ADP is in bed with the bureaucrats who will put forth the most regulations/burdens on employers in order to scare them into using their “services’.

One tactic was to reference the iPhone app created by the department of labor into scaring employers to use ADP to mitigate risk associated with an employee lawsuit for unpaid hours.

http://www.dol.gov/dol/apps/

ImageSniper on July 5, 2012 at 12:02 PM

When will the October numbers be released – before or after Election Day? If before, I bet sudden good news all around, if after I bet they’ll be pretty grim, especially if O loses.

Waggoner on July 5, 2012 at 1:03 PM

So what. If the number is somewhat optimistic the media will crow about it until the White House puts out the adjusted (down) number 2am on a Saturday morning.

DaveDief on July 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

And not a peep about manufacturing being down.

davidk on July 5, 2012 at 1:58 PM

5 will get you 10 that the numbers tomorrow will be lower by a bit. They never are the same and they have yet to be higher on Fri following the ADP report and the monthly average for UEI claims is not looking very good either………..we are floundering badly and that is all there is to it.

Karla1953 on July 5, 2012 at 2:34 PM

They can lie about the unemployment rate all they want. They can stop counting 7.5 Million people all they want.

What we have to do is get those people into the booth for Romney.

PastorJon on July 5, 2012 at 3:38 PM

The Associated (with terrorists) Press and Al-Reuters will both report the numbers as “unexpected”. As expected.

bofh on July 5, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Um since when is 125k to 150k is just keeping up with population growth? I thought it was 250k-ish instead. Is the 125k number from someone in the Obama admin so it doesn’t sound so bad with the low numbers coming out?

Also I bet that with the Obamaca… Tax ruling, job growth will come to a screeching halt. We should see this come in the July jobs report in August.

Ronaldusmax on July 5, 2012 at 8:48 PM