CNN poll of battleground states: Romney 51, Obama 43

posted at 5:46 pm on July 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it’s terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?

I’m not putting any stock in it but let’s blog it anyway. After last week’s SCOTUS groin-punch, we need something to be happy about.

About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 “battleground states,” the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

“Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “That’s both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama’s home turf.”

The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Note to Holland: If Romney’s lead across swing states is approaching double digits then I’m pretty sure he’s not sweating over Obama’s “home turf,” especially since polls of registered voters tend to underestimate actual Republican strength on election day. So what’s driving the alleged big Romney wave? Must be a backlash to the Supreme Court ruling, no? No, actually: O still leads Romney by three overall (within the margin of error), same as he did last month. The only difference detected by CNN is a sudden spike in Democratic enthusiasm buoyed by their big Court win. The public’s short attention span will solve that problem in due time.

Gallup’s not seeing any “John Roberts bounce” for The One either. But:

The O-Care decision was announced between those two spikes at the far right of the graph so O’s recent surge obviously wasn’t due to the Court ruling. Maybe it was driven by a surge of Democratic and Latino enthusiasm after he announced his new DREAM policy? In that case, you’d expect to see his job approval rise too but there’s only been a slight bump lately and he’s actually underwater at the moment. Seems like his recent lead over Mitt might be more of an anti-Romney than a pro-Obama thing, although why that would be, I can’t imagine. Let’s chalk it up to statistical noise, hm? Even if it is his biggest lead in two months.

Exit question: How do you reconcile Romney’s eight-point swing state lead here with Obama’s eight-point swing state lead in NBC’s poll last week? Hint: Small sample sizes!


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Anyone want to bet Obama, in typical grandiloquent EO fashion, legalizes pot before November?

AubieJon on July 2, 2012 at 6:39 PM

A desperate attempt to win the votes of voters that he already has? Naah.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Dire Straits:Yup…..”Clink”!!:)

canopfor on July 2, 2012 at 6:13 PM

*clink *

It’s adult beverage time

cmsinaz on July 2, 2012 at 6:41 PM

*clink!*

:)

Seven Percent Solution on July 2, 2012 at 6:57 PM

cmsinaz on July 2, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Hey…

OmahaConservative on July 2, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Remember the good old days when most of us assumed there was no way–no way–the individual mandate of Obamacare would survive in any form?

What was that–five days ago?

With four months to go until the election, let’s not go slapping each others’ backs just yet. I’ll celebrate on November 7 when if 0bama is defeated, and no sooner.

MidniteRambler on July 2, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Romney can’t win if it’s a referendum on Obamacare….
hello…ROMNEYCARE!

terryannonline on July 2, 2012 at 6:48 PM

With one important distinction, fellow-Texas, States’ Rights. Leave it to the States. No need to pull the entire 57 United States into anything.

the new aesthetic on July 2, 2012 at 7:01 PM

I don’t know about the rest of you…

… but even when I was on vacation, everyone, I mean EVERYONE was talking about the SCOTUS ruling and Obowmacare.

… Anyone who was trying to make an honest dollar in this life was PISSED!!!…

I’m sure the press is going to try to keep a lid on this as long as they can…

… but the mushroom cloud over the horizon is getting bigger and bigger as the reality of what happened last weeks sets in and the shock wears off…

Seven Percent Solution on July 2, 2012 at 6:02 PM

*clink!* While the plural of anecdote isn’t data, here’s mine: this time 4 years ago I was engaged in a lively email exchange with a group of old college roommates and a few of our friends, a very articulate and well-educated group, almost all JDs or MBAs, who had gone on to very successful careers. The email list had been set up by one of the roommates, an Obama acolyte whom one might perfectly describe as “libfreeordie at 50,” they’re so alike in every way– every way– and equally smug, arrogant… and clueless. My roommate and I watched in horror as, despite our best efforts, one after the other, every one on the list peeled away to support Obama. They perceived “racism” at McCain rallies, but mostly they were under the Brooksian delusion that Obama had a presidential temperament and a first-class intellect, sharper than the crease of his pants. Obama won, the email list organizer gloated, and everyone promised to be back in four years.

Fast forward to now, and the same fellow’s attempts to revive the Obama email list exchanges– his most recent lauding Obama’s triumphant vindication as a constitutional scholar, thanks to the Roberts decision. He received exactly one reply, from one of the lawyers on the list: “So… how’s the weather?”

It was never more applicable than to this group: “If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you’re not a racist, you’d better vote for someone else, now, to prove you’re not an idiot.” I don’t think the polls have begun to measure the voters’ “buyer’s remorse.”

de rigueur on July 2, 2012 at 7:02 PM

OT…..it works…

t on July 2, 2012 at 7:03 PM

You know you’re in trouble when the best poll that CNN can manufacture for a liberal is one that shows you down eight points.

RJL on July 2, 2012 at 7:03 PM

I think that now would be a good time for obama to declare that he is 1/32 Cherokee.

Pork-Chop on July 2, 2012 at 7:04 PM

canopfor on July 2, 2012 at 6:47 PM

See, this is what happens when I’m off the internet for any length of time.

AubieJon on July 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

AubieJon:I should of supplied the linky,oops,and I overlooked
the getting caught,smoking part!:)
============================================

Chicago decriminalizes possession of small amounts of pot (but those caught puffing on a joint will still be arrested)
UPDATED: 01:58 GMT, 28 June 2012
********************************

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2165805/Chicago-decriminalizes-possession-small-amounts-pot-caught-puffing-joint-arrested.html

canopfor on July 2, 2012 at 7:09 PM

After all of the misery and pain…incomprehensible levels of incompetence and corruption… narcissism and overt lying…that this cipher has a 5 point lead in the election…right on the eve of a double dip in a depression we never even recovered from after he took office…indicates the real problem. 50% of the people/tools in this country think all of the above is fine.

How can we turn this country around (even if we throw this idiot out) when half of it’s citizens are already happy to be slaves?

AUINSC on July 2, 2012 at 7:11 PM

*clink!*

:)

Seven Percent Solution on July 2, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Seven Percent Solution:—:)

canopfor on July 2, 2012 at 7:12 PM

A new month a new shinny object to throw in front of the electorate. I say this month it’s a Student Loan write off.

Fred 2 on July 2, 2012 at 7:12 PM

No wonder Zero was on Air Force One groveling to his lackeys, begging for cash.

I am not pleased with Mitt’s meek campaign effort, but I am pleased with how Obama has to burn through cash just to keep his head above water in polling. That strategy is well-played, Mitt.

That’s priceless.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 7:14 PM

I expect Zero to propose forgiving everyone’s debt, regardless of type. He’s that desperate.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Who have the ObamaTax team been losing? Independents.

The left will not insult the independents, yet, for fear of alienating them before the election. As the election gets nearer and the ObamaTax team continues to see the independents uncommitted and unmoved by their message, the independents will come under the withering barrage of hateful rhetoric from the left and their propaganda arms.

The funny thing about the methodology of this poll is that independents are only 10% of the polled. Not to mention that no breakdown was given for D/R/I voting, only total responses for each question.

This sounds more like CNN covering for future “totally in the tank reporting” for team ObamaTax.

God Bless America!

paratisi on July 2, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I expect Zero to make free dining at AppleBee’s a mandate for all Americans.

I expect Zero to force cable and satellite companies to provide free service to all Americans.

I expect Zero to provide a prostitute or gigolo for each, sad, lonely American.

Of course someone else will have to pay for his policies; it is the liberal-progressive way.

the new aesthetic on July 2, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Where’s AngryEd been? Haven’t seen any of his outbursts lately…

brushman on July 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

All these polls are a lazy way for the media to create a headline, and most of them are skewed, anyway.

As long as the economy remains the way it is, Obama will get creamed. That’s the bottom line, no matter how deep in the tank for him the MSM goes.

DRayRaven on July 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

How can we turn this country around (even if we throw this idiot out) when half of it’s citizens are already happy to be slaves?

AUINSC on July 2, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Start when they’re young. I brainwashed my daughter before she started kindergarten. I figured I better beat them to it. She is immune to liberal BS, and can spot it on her own now, at 12.

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Hey Canopfor and 7%

cmsinaz on July 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

With four months to go until the election, let’s not go slapping each others’ backs just yet. I’ll celebrate on November 7 when if 0bama is defeated, and no sooner.

MidniteRambler on July 2, 2012 at 7:01 PM

No thanks. While I’ll breathe a little easier if Obama is defeated, I’m not celebrating until either Obamacare is completely repealed or Obama/Holder are convicted for treason over F&F.

dominigan on July 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

I expect Zero to propose forgiving everyone’s debt, regardless of type. He’s that desperate.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 7:16 PM

I still wouldn’t vote for him.

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:25 PM

I expect Zero to force weathermen to only predict moderate, sunny days ahead before the election.

I expect Zero will mandate all Americans to consume Red Eye Gravy with Grits at least twice per week, or pay the penalty tax.

I expect Zero will not only legalize marijuana, but will by executive fiat, legalize crack cocaine and crystal-methamphetamine for public consumption.

Liberal-progressives always play bait-and-switch by pandering to all classes and renig, once elected.

the new aesthetic on July 2, 2012 at 7:26 PM

But but but Obama’s giving away these totally awesome refrigerator magnets!

eyedoc on July 2, 2012 at 7:28 PM

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again. I don’t trust any polling. Too many people don’t want to be thought of as racists. When they step into a polling booth and pull the curtain behind them, it’s going to be between them and God.

That’s the only poll that’s going to count.

trigon on July 2, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Start when they’re young. I brainwashed my daughter before she started kindergarten. I figured I better beat them to it. She is immune to liberal BS, and can spot it on her own now, at 12.

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Good deal!..:)

Dire Straits on July 2, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Scru these polls. There is a sure-fire way to de-elect Obama.

Our single greatest weapon against a 2nd Obama term is in your back pocket. It’s your wallet. All conservatives should stop all discretionary spending from now until election day. If you don’t need it…and I mean NEED it…don’t buy it. Go Galt and disappear until November. The Occupidiots and Georgetown Law students are the looters Ayn Rand wrote about.

Remind yourselves that every dime you spend between now and November 6 is a de facto donation to Obama’s re-election campaign.

Voters will hang the poor economy around Obama’s neck and on November 7 his official title will be President-Reject of the United States.

We’ll meet at dawn on election day and finish the job we started in 2010.

Doug Piranha on July 2, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Thats the most accurate photo of the President ever, btw.

It starkly captures Obama’s disdainful, uncaring, shark-eyed malevolence and superfund-toxic self-regard.

Sacramento on July 2, 2012 at 7:30 PM

People at work today were asking me if I understood how this new tax works, the one you have to pay if you don’t buy health insurance. Keep at it folks, the message is sinking in.

eyedoc on July 2, 2012 at 7:31 PM

de rigueur on July 2, 2012 at 7:02 PM

*clink*

Seven Percent Solution on July 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Hey Canopfor and 7%

cmsinaz on July 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Hey Girl…

*clink*

Seven Percent Solution on July 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

A desperate attempt to win the votes of votersthathealready has? Naah.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 6:56 PM

To be fair, not everyone who votes GOP is a raging SoCon nanny-stater.

Spliff Menendez on July 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

AUINSC,
Here’s my suggestion…..immediately do away with the Dept. of Education and let States, counties and municipalities manage the education of our upcoming generations. They are so easily swayed because years ago the schools stopped teaching Civics or Problems of Democracy. They don’t have a clue how goverment is supposed to work, or what each branch is directed to do. Naturally, if they are ignorant of the subject they can be sold a bill of goods and not know any better. It’s time to take back the responsibility for the education of our children. I helped out at a local community college last year and taught a class on reading/vocabulary…..what a shock! Twenty five and thirty yr. olds that can’t read above a 6th grade level. How the hell did they get a High School diploma? They can’t make change either unless the electronic cash register tells them how much to give back to the customer. Disgraceful! Many can’t tell time without a digital read-out watch. And this is our future leaders….lord, I hope I’m dead by then!

MONACO1121 on July 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

“If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed.”

Mark Twain

DannoJyd on July 2, 2012 at 7:42 PM

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again. I don’t trust any polling. Too many people don’t want to be thought of as racists. When they step into a polling booth and pull the curtain behind them, it’s going to be between them and God.

That’s the only poll that’s going to count.

trigon on July 2, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Another anecdotal story (from Western PA)- My father is retired and has breakfast every morning with a bunch of other old guys. Four years ago he was the only republican. This year, the talk has been about which republican they wanted to win the primary, that they wish Obama would quit bugging them for money, etc. They are over him.

On the radio the other day there was a union worker who said that the union bosses are really pushing Obama, but the workers are “scared to death” that Obama will win. I think there is going to be a quiet rebellion in the unions, as far as actual workers. They can’t say anything, but when they get in that booth…

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Good deal!..:)

Dire Straits on July 2, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Her name is Ragan and she plans to be President. You heard it here first! :)

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Her name is Ragan and she plans to be President. You heard it here first! :)

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I’m good with that!..:)

Dire Straits on July 2, 2012 at 7:59 PM

I still wouldn’t vote for him.

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Neither would I.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Rasmussen has shown an improvement in Obama’s numbers. I’m puzzled, too. Maybe the unlawful DREAM pander helped him. If so, that is shameful.

WannabeAnglican on July 2, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Of course someone else will have to pay for his policies; it is the liberal-progressive way.

the new aesthetic on July 2, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Make your check out to the People’s Liberation Army, Beijing, China.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Anyone want to bet Obama, in typical grandiloquent EO fashion, legalizes pot before November?

AubieJon on July 2, 2012 at 6:39 PM

A desperate attempt to win the votes of voters that he already has? Naah.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 6:56 PM

But he doesn’t. If legalizing (probably framed as evolving on the issue of criminalizing pot use) pot is on the agenda this is clearly an appeal to all the Ron Paul nutjobs. Enough of them post on HA to know that this is not an idle threat. These are single issue voters who don’t give a damn about this nation. They are very likely to jump ship to Obama if they can get their pot legally.

Happy Nomad on July 2, 2012 at 8:40 PM

People at work today were asking me if I understood how this new tax works, the one you have to pay if you don’t buy health insurance. Keep at it folks, the message is sinking in.

eyedoc on July 2, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Doc, same here. Mitt’s campaign would be wise to explain exactly what will happen under O-care, and how that affects each type of consumer (Medicare, employer-insured, self-insured, etc.). He needs to have an alternative plan ready to address this.

I talked to people who are absolutely clueless about what is about to happen to their insurance – especially those people like me who get their coverage at work. It might be sinking in slowly that they very well could get dropped and have to find their own insurance – from non-existent exchanges.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 8:40 PM

8pt lead, if true Mittens may actually be able to keep it a close race.

With Holder in charge of election itegrity and using the Philly NBPP ’08 episode as guideline, if Romeny can stretch that actual lead to 16 or so points he might, just might, be able to win the race by one or two pts.

Nothing short of a crushing landslide will be able to overcome the voter fraud, ballot stuffing and intimidation tactics of his allies this go around. Those allies are all too aware that Holder won’t prosecute and with a former Project Vote alumni in charge of Personnel & Hiring at the Voting Rights Section of the DOJ, plus Soros’ Sec’y of States Project minion’s in charge of validating the ballot counts anything short of a large double digit advantage for Romney…well it’ll be the 4 last yrs of the Republic.

ffectiveng the NBPP as a barometer of his e

Archimedes on July 2, 2012 at 8:46 PM

What the hel…….?

Archimedes on July 2, 2012 at 8:48 PM

makes perfect sense – Battleground states have more independent voters. We know they are leaning to Romney pretty heavily

iam7545r on July 2, 2012 at 8:51 PM

How can we turn this country around (even if we throw this idiot out) when half of it’s citizens are already happy to be slaves?

AUINSC on July 2, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Western ‘democracies’ have invented a system that delegates power to the feckless, the foolish and the ignorant. Each such person doesn’t have very much power individually but there are enough of them that people who crave big power must pander to them and hence the political direction of Western countries is largely determined by the loudest voices rather than by the wisest minds.

For the country (and indeed the ‘western’ world) to ‘turn around’, power must be removed from the feckless, the foolish and the ignorant people. There are several ways that could be done, but none of them are easy and most of them are unpleasant.

YiZhangZhe on July 2, 2012 at 8:52 PM

If Zero wins, he’ll scale back the war on drugs (potheads rejoice).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/02/obama-drug-war_n_1643483.html?icid=maing-grid10%7Chtmlws-main-bb%7Cdl11%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D175077

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Another anecdotal story (from Western PA)- My father is retired and has breakfast every morning with a bunch of other old guys. Four years ago he was the only republican. This year, the talk has been about which republican they wanted to win the primary, that they wish Obama would quit bugging them for money, etc. They are over him.

On the radio the other day there was a union worker who said that the union bosses are really pushing Obama, but the workers are “scared to death” that Obama will win. I think there is going to be a quiet rebellion in the unions, as far as actual workers. They can’t say anything, but when they get in that booth…

Night Owl on July 2, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Re the unions, I think some of that happened in Wisconsin too. When the greedy union thug bosses load up the buses from an adjacent state with voters and then start to wonder who they are really going to vote for, the democratic party vote falls apart.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 9:01 PM

*clink*

SparkPlug on July 2, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Stoned, indigent illegal immigrants will fare best under a second Obama term.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 9:03 PM

A desperate attempt to win the votes of votersthathealready has? Naah.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 6:56 PM

To be fair, not everyone who votes GOP is a raging SoCon nanny-stater.

Spliff Menendez on July 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I’m all for legalization, just not in a crass and vain attempt to win votes from a demographic that’s never going to vote for us anyway.

It’s also about 18th on my list of issues.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Legalization is not high on my list of priorities, pardon the pun.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 9:11 PM

*clink*

SparkPlug on July 2, 2012 at 9:02 PM

*tink*

My glass is fuller then yours :)

Electrongod on July 2, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Romney will destroy him in the debates. Obama has no defense without his teleprompter. Don’t give up hope. The ones that will foot the bill will either elect Obama, or kick him out. I’m betting that they’ll kick him out.

cajunpatriot on July 2, 2012 at 6:27 PM

..not to be one of the “silver-lining” crowd, but this decision also makes the moderate Mittbotts (“like myself”) stay on board AFTER the election to make sure that Romney and those we elected live up to their promises (as if I wasn’t gonna do that). So conservative formerly-ABR types will get a whole passel of friends on November 7th and for the next four-to-twenty years until this sack-o-crap gets sorted out.

Seriously, there is much more motivation for all of us to pick up our muskets, powder, and shot and meet down on the common to wait for the Redcoats.

NOVEMBER 6H: OUR TURN!

The War Planner on July 2, 2012 at 9:14 PM

My glass is fuller then yours :)

Electrongod on July 2, 2012 at 9:13 PM

..wait! I just emptied mine. Lemme fill it up again!

The War Planner on July 2, 2012 at 9:15 PM

I’m all for legalization, just not in a crass and vain attempt to win votes from a demographic that’s never going to vote for us anyway.

It’s also about 18th on my list of issues.

slickwillie2001 on July 2, 2012 at 9:03 PM

I agree, its not important to me either in the grand scheme of things. Its just amazing to me how many people here love to talk about their beer and wine but get all uppity when it comes to pot. The hypocrisy is mind-boggling.

Spliff Menendez on July 2, 2012 at 9:15 PM

..wait! I just emptied mine. Lemme fill it up again!

The War Planner on July 2, 2012 at 9:15 PM

We’re out a sync…:)

I hate it when that happens.

Electrongod on July 2, 2012 at 9:17 PM

The endless virtual cheers on this thread prove my point. Even more so considering alcohol needed a constitutional amendment to ban, not to mention its much more dangerous to individuals and society as a whole.

Spliff Menendez on July 2, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Obama’s campaign strategy is inadequate to maintain him in a serious action such as Mitt Romney and the Tea Party will put to him. He has corruption in the coop, hate on the hoof, taqiyya on the tongue and bats in the belfry — that’s his campaign strategy. He can probably maintain himself in the type of fighting Mitt Romney and the Tea Party will give him in Mexifornia and a few states on the North East front. After that it will make no difference how many thousands of dead he has voting for him early and often, and if Americans want America and the Presidency back in 2012, Mitt Romney and the Tea Party will give it to them.

VorDaj on July 2, 2012 at 9:24 PM

VorDaj on July 2, 2012 at 9:24 PM

I hope you’re right. Romney doesn’t give me that kind of confidence, but hes all we got.

Spliff Menendez on July 2, 2012 at 9:30 PM

I’m going to sing the doom song now.

The Rogue Tomato on July 2, 2012 at 9:38 PM

This 8 point lead for Romney is no more explainable than the Bloomberg 13 point Obama lead a few weeks ago. I think the polling trend across most polls recently toward Obama reflects three things:1. O’s team spending a lot of money on advertising to establish Romney’s image before Romney can 2. The Dream Act pander to Hispanics. 3.The switch last week from the nations focus on economics to focus on health care. The Tea Partiers who oppose Obamacare were already decided but the non-affluent fence sitters who heard FREE FREE FREE may have been persuaded to get off the fence last week. I expect a poor jobs report at the end of this week will switch the subject back to the economy.

KW64 on July 2, 2012 at 10:43 PM

This right here demonstrates why I’m not paying too much attention to the polls right now, except as a very loose general metric. This early on there are just too few people paying attention for polling to REALLY generate a predictive metric.

That said, here’s a thought on recent polling.

I fully expected Obama to get a bump off of last weeks SCOTUS decision, but it’ll be an illusory bump. Simply put, you’re going to have several days in a row where media personalities are spiking the football, celebrating, and bragging up Obama’s victory. Low information voters are of course going to be affected by this, and even polling of likely voters isn’t completely immune to the movements of low information voters.

This bump will definitely be temporary however, by simple virtue of where the electorate actually sits on these issues. All polling data since last Thursday suggests that Obamacare is still DEEPLY unpopular, and this law is now going to be a campaign issue that Obama will have to defend himself on well after the celebrations have died down.

At this point, you’re better off focusing on where Americans stand on certain issues and which sides they favor for these issues. On all the highly rated issues of the day, Republicans are generally favored, and often by fairly large margins. That doesn’t mean Romney will necessarily win, but it does mean Obama is fighting an uphill battle. Right now the Obama campaign is spending money hand over fist, and most weeks they’re barely managing a tie. Right now the Romney campaign is largely sitting on their campaign funds and waiting for them to accumulate, so when they do start advertising they’re likely to absolutely flood the airwaves.

Assuming I’m right and Obama is fighting an uphill battle, this advertising flood should damage him horribly.

WolvenOne on July 2, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Because the Republicans took over so many states after the 2010 elections, the Democrats ability to cheat will be significantly stifled. Holder has almost no power in this.

The blue states will still get whatever help they might need to put Walker over the top — but he won’t need any help there. The rest of the states will be tougher than what the Democrats are used to. This could lead to some major surprises.

Still, it is VERY early. Anything can happen in the next 4 months.

Pythagoras on July 3, 2012 at 12:45 AM

Little bit of an update.

Rassmussen now shows Romney ahead of Obama again,46-44, which suggests that Obama’s little bounce didn’t last very long.

Also, that means that in the three most recent polls, Romney is ahead in 2 out of 3 of them. Granted, you cannot really blow off Gallop, and I’m not a fan of CNN/ORC, but still.

WolvenOne on July 3, 2012 at 3:06 AM

Stoned, indigent illegal gay immigrants who can’t afford their own condoms will fare best under a second Obama term.

Philly on July 2, 2012 at 9:03 PM

FIFY

eyedoc on July 3, 2012 at 9:45 AM

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