Open thread: Mandate-mas III, the Finale; Update: Stolen Valor Act struck down; Update: CNN says mandate struck down; Update: AP reports that mandate upheld; Update: Confirmed upheld, 5-4; Update: Kennedy wanted to strike entire law

posted at 8:41 am on June 28, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Why not get this party started early?  The decision won’t get announced until 10 am ET, about the same time that the House will come to order this morning to consider whether to hold the Attorney General in contempt over his refusal to abide by a subpoena from the Oversight Committee.  Take your pick of historic events, in other words, and try to predict which will be more memorable in the end.  John Podhoretz had a thought about that last night on Twitter:

So what’s the skinny on the decision?  Last night, Intrade had 72.8% betting that the individual mandate was a goner:

With the Supreme Court set to make its ruling on Obamacare on Thursday, the prediction market on Intrade has placed its bet, reporting there is a high probability that the individual mandate will be struck down.

As of Wednesday night, “the world’s leading prediction market” reports there is a 72.8 percent chance the individual mandate will be ruled unconstitutional — a ruling that would deliver a devastating blow to the Obama administration.

If I was a betting man, I’d probably go the same way.  I think there’s still a decent chance that the court might uphold it, but a slightly better chance that the whole thing will get tossed, more out of convenience than anything else, but the mandate will still be the key.

Of course, if that happens, be prepared for a full-court meltdown among the Left, where the argument has already arisen that the Roberts Court is the Most Activististist Court Evah, with Jeffrey Toobin and (Politico’s) Roger Simon leading the way.  Gabriel Malor demolished this argument on Twitter yesterday, and he compiled his rebuttal into a blog post this morning:

Here’s the data on the first five years of the Roberts Court (gleaned from this NYTimes infographic):

(1) The Warren, Burger, and Rehnquist Courts overturned precedent decisions at an average rate of 2.7, 2.8 and 2.4 per term, respectively. By contrast, the Roberts Court overturned precedent only at an average rate of 1.6 per term.(2) The Warren, Burger, and Rehnquist Courts overturned laws at an average rate of 7.9, 12.5, and 6.2 laws per term. By contrast, the Roberts Court struck down laws only 3 laws per term.

Just three laws per term! Far, far from being “eager” to overturn legislatures, as hack Toobin dribbled, and obviously, indisputably playing no unusual role in “second-guessing laws,” as Fallows alarmingly squeaked, the Roberts Court has been a model of restraint. Restraint is, naturally, one of Chief Justice Roberts’ well-known characteristics and it was remarked upon during his confirmation hearings. One could even creditably call the Roberts Court the most restrained, incrementalist Court of the modern era. (I assure you, these numbers have not changed appreciably in the past two years.)

Again, that assumes that the Roberts Court overturns ObamaCare, in whole or in part.  Will the Right melt down if they don’t?  Er …

Beginning at 8:45 am ET, a few minutes earlier than usual, SCOTUSBlog will start its live blogging at this link, which is where most of us will find out what happened.  I’ll be updating this post as we go along, so check back here frequently.

Update: Don’t forget that there are two other cases on the docket that will get decided today, one of which is the Stolen Valor case.  Can Congress make it a crime to lie about military service, or does the First Amendment cover that as protected speech?  We will soon find out.

Update II: Yes, the circus has arrived.  Jeff Quinton posted this picture of Belly Dancers for Single Payer on his Twitter feed:

Because nothing says, “Take me seriously on health care” like belly dancing.

Update: Not going to number updates here.  Stolen Valor act struck down as unconstitutional 6-3, with Kennedy writing for majority.  Congress may be able to rewrite it, though, according to SCOTUSblog’s interpretation of decision.  Here’s the opinion.

Update: Next case, First American, was dismissed.

Update: CNN reports mandate struck down …  developing …

Update: AP reports mandate upheld as a tax, but clearly there is a lot of confusion on this point.

Update: SCOTUSblog reports that Roberts says mandate is constitutional.

Update: Yup, the court upheld the mandate as a tax, not as part of a Commerce Clause jurisdiction.  They narrowed the Medicaid expansion, but it looks like the bill will survive mainly intact.  CNN may be the biggest loser today.

Update: On Twitter, astonishment from conservatives that Kennedy voted to kill the mandate and Roberts voted to uphold it.  I tweeted this in response:

It helps to laugh a little, people.

Update: Kennedy wanted to strike the entire act, according to SCOTUSBlog: “In our view, the entire Act before us is invalid in its entirety.”


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Comment pages: 1 5 6 7 8 9 30

Stolen Valor Act is overturned.

WannabeAnglican on June 28, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Not surprised. I would have ruled the same way, as despicable as valour thieves are. Recall the ruling in Snyder v Phelps.

The First Amendment & Snyder v. Phelps

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/01/first-amendment-snyder-v-phelps.html

Resist We Much on June 28, 2012 at 10:06 AM

520,000 on SCOTUSBlog

Sekhmet on June 28, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Don’t look up at the sky!

Lourdes on June 28, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I wish it were only a comet delivering -1 stability.

Yeah, an inside joke for the twelve of us who play Paradox games…

Gingotts on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Tom:
520,000 contemporaneous readers.

Rovin on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I’m taking a motorcycle ride either way very soon after this. You all should too, it can be very cathartic for the nerves.

Bishop on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Well not exactly, Barky looks stupid in that stovepipe hat.

Bishop on June 28, 2012 at 10:05 AM

And while you joke about Obama issuing warrants for the SCOTUS justices, Lincoln actually did it.

Lincoln’s tyrannical act

Dante on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Scotusblog notes large opinion on desk. Large due to a ton of space given to severability after striking down individual mandate?

thebombdiggity on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Health Care opinion NOW

steebo77 on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

here it is….!!!

Weight of Glory on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

HEERREE ROBERTS IS…HE’S READING THE DECISION ON THE HEALTHCARE LAW…

Lourdes on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Tom:
520,000 contemporaneous readers.

Rovin on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Red Cloud: Who f’n cares?

Red Cloud on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Can’t see how if SVA is held to be unconst. that they will find OCare fine and dandy.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Twitter not happy.

HCA IS BEING READ OUT NOW!

It was nice knowing you guys.

victor82 on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Chief Justice Roberts reading the decision…

MidniteRambler on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Next case dismissed, straight to ObamaCare!

NotCoach on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Can’t. Stand. It.

annoyinglittletwerp on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

COMe on…

blatantblue on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

10:07

Amy Howe:
We have health care opinion.

BacaDog on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

First American dismissed

JeffWeimer on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I hope they do not make it a crime to lie about military service. From a moral perspective, it utterly sickens me that people would fraudulently claim to be military heroes. However…unless the person in question committed fraud, I don’t see how the First Amendment would not protect the person’s right to be the lowest form of filth imaginable. It’s the other edge of the sword, in my opinion.

MadisonConservative on June 28, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Amen!!

flyfisher on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

If this goes down …

I am celebrating 4th of July early….
For a month….

Electrongod on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Amy Howe:
We have health care opinion.

Flora Duh on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m more concerned about Ann Curry leaving Today. What a rotten day. /

changer1701 on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

YES!!!!!!

blatantblue on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

YAH!!!!!

RBMN on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Dante on June 28, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Lincoln built fences to keep us in too.

Bishop on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

mANDATE RULLED UNCONSTITUTIIONAL.

THANK YOU, DEAR GOD.

Lourdes on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

WOOT

jhffmn on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

mandate gone!!!!!!!!!!!

The Count on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Individual Mandate struck down

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Mandate is unconstitutional…!!!!!!!!!!!!

d1carter on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Yeah!!

BettyRuth on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

tingles!!!!!!!!!!

tru2tx on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

INDIVIDUAL MANDATE UNCONSTITUTIONAL!

the new aesthetic on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Mandate gone!!!!

portlandon on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Individual M andante down!

Gettycorn on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

FOX JUST REPORTED

UNCONSTITUTIONAL

ted c on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

UNCONSTITUTIONAL!!!

Resist We Much on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Unconstitutioanl – indv. mandate. Yea!

silvernana on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Mandate unconstitutional!!!

flyfisher on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

WHOO HOO!!!!!!!!

NO INDIVIDUAL MANDATE!!!!!!!!!!!

F YEAH!

MidniteRambler on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

John Roberts reading the decision in Court right now.

Philly on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Yes

Conservative4ev on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Mandate unconstitutional! Haven’t heard anything else yet, but that’s a victory.

LukeinNE on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

SCOTUSBLOG: 10:07 Amy Howe: We have health care opinion.

SWEET MOTHER OF GOD

mapper on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Score!!!

idesign on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Live Feed in front of SCOTUS!

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Manate just got tossed.

eva3071 on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

CNN reports mandate struck down. SCOTUSblog parsing it.

Steve Eggleston on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

God blessed America.

GaltBlvnAtty on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Health Care Ruling – Opinion being read right now.

Mandate Stuck Down.

Dr Evil on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The internet is getting hammered.

Blake on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I just hope the ruling that Wisconsin should be used as a national landfill is upheld.
 
Bishop on June 28, 2012 at 9:59 AM

 
That would be a brilliant economic move. The entire country’s trash is shipped all over anyway. It wouldn’t take up more than a couple of counties, could be properly managed in one place, and they could charge an appropriate amount for the service.
 
$XX/month from each household in the U.S., let each county vote on who wanted to become instant millionaires, and pay each resident that had to move out of the counties for their property plus $1M.
 
Seriously. That would be a great move that would never happen.

rogerb on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoo

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

GGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Bishop on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

NOOOOOOOO BUNNY!!!!!!!!!!!!

Abby Adams on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Varney says MANDATE GONE!!!

Gingotts on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

LIBERTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Grace_is_sufficient on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Unconstitutional – mandate.

joana on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

EAT YOUR PEAS.

BIOTCH

ted c on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

everyone keep breathing…

tomg51 on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Individual Mandate UNCONSTITUTIONAL!!!!!

Rovin on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Here goes…

de rigueur on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Mandate struck down

Conservative4ev on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

MANDATE RULED UNCONSTITUTIONAL

steebo77 on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

NO MANDATE!

Philly on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Mandate unconcstitutional!!!!!!!

Rosmerta on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

NOOOO!

KingGold on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

John Roberts is the man!!!!!!!

d1carter on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Happy Days!

farsighted on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

WHAT?????

Valkyriepundit on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

GREAT!!!

I live in a Free Country!!!!

Electrongod on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Good-bye liberty

gwelf on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

OH YEAH!!!!!

Kraken on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Sweet baby Jesus THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Count on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Mandate upheld “as a tax”

de rigueur on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

SCOTUSblog – mandate survives as a tax. FSCK!

Steve Eggleston on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

10:08 Amy Howe: The individual mandate survives as a tax.

And with that…

Abby Adams on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Its going down………………..7 to 2!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

damn

Sekhmet on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Shoot me. :(

Blake on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

individual mandate survives as a tax.

Weight of Glory on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

The Republic is over.

NotCoach on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

wow

rob verdi on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

UPHOLD

Falz on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I’m hearing both things. WTF

Red Cloud on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

now comes “severability”…

Lourdes on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

God is good. All the time. Praise Him!

kingsjester on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

YAY, mandate sunk … praying

pambi on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Mandate is unconstitutional …..;)

angrymike on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

txmomof6 on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

The individual mandate survives as a tax.

What does this mean?

MadisonConservative on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

MANDATE’S GONE! MANDATE’S GONE!

DavidW on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Un-friggin’-believeable.

Individual mandate survives as a tax.

AZCoyote on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Huh, confusion, SCOTUSblog is saying it survives.

LukeinNE on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

church bells ringing!!!!

portlandon on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Amy Howe: The individual mandate survives as a tax.

HUH??!?!?!?!?!?

steebo77 on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

It’s Morning In America SMILE

Dr Evil on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Amy Howe:
We have health care opinion.

Flora Duh on June 28, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Goes down!

VegasRick on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Crap. Mandate upheld.

WannabeAnglican on June 28, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Comment pages: 1 5 6 7 8 9 30