Dueling polls: Obama lead narrowing or expanding in Ohio?

posted at 9:21 am on June 27, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In one corner — Quinnipiac, by way of National Journal:

Brown leads Mandel 50 percent to 34 percent in the poll. In the previous survey, released on May 10, Brown led 46 percent to 40 percent over Mandel, who is also an Iraq War veteran.

Mandel has attracted a lot of negative headlines in the local press but he’s been the beneficiary of over $8 million in outside spending aimed at attacking Brown, which has kept him in the race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is keeping a close eye on the race, and has already reserved fall ad time in the state.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney 47 percent to 38 percent in the Ohio survey.

In the other corner — PPP, by way of Politico:

President Obama‘s lead in Ohio has narrowed, according to a new survey.

Obama leads Mitt Romney 47 percent to 44 percent in the Buckeye State, according to the latest poll by the Democratic-leaning firm PPP.  But that’s down from a seven point lead that he maintained in the last two PPP surveys of the state.

Obama is clinging to his lead based on his strength with three demographic groups: black voters, young voters and women. Obama leads among African-Americans 93 percent to 6 percent, and he beats Romney among young voters 54 percent to 36 percent. Women support Obama over Romney 52 percent to 41 percent.

So which one’s right?  National Journal takes a peek under the hood of the Q-poll:

Quinnipiac’s sample is slightly more Democratic-leaning than the previous poll. In the latest poll, 34 percent of voters said they generally consider themselves Democrats, compared to 26 percent who say they are Republicans. In the early May survey, 31 percent of voters were Democrats, and 29 percent were Republicans.

In the 2010 midterms, exit polls showed the D/R/I in Ohio as slightly Republican at 36/37/28.  The sample in the Q-poll now looks more like the 2008 model, where Democrats had an eight-point advantage, 39/31/30.  I doubt that we’ll see either model exactly as it was, but I’m inclined to think that Republicans are going to turn out more enthusiastically to oppose Obama than Democrats in Ohio will to support Obama, especially if we see a couple of more jobs reports like we did for May.

PPP’s sample looks a lot more reasonable, at 39/37/24.  It might be oversampling both Democrats and Republicans, but it gets the relationship between the two correct.  Undersampling independents helps Obama a bit, though, as his job approval rating among indies is a disastrous 37/53, although Obama and Romney tie at 42/42 among them.  However, that looks like a high-water mark for Obama as long as his job approval rating is that poor, while Romney would have more upside.  Let’s not forget that an incumbent should be scoring at 50% or higher at this stage of a race, and the close race with Obama at 47% in both polls is an indicator that he’s going to have a lot of trouble making the sale.

In this case, I’d take PPP over the Quinnipiac poll, although I generally consider the Q-poll more reliable overall.


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“John Roberts would take the Q-poll”

-Robert’s old law professor

Eph on June 27, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Q-poll = atheist feeeeevah ????????????????

Eph on June 27, 2012 at 9:25 AM

What about Q’s Florida poll, which uses a decent sample and still shows Romney doing terrible there? FL was supposed to be the safe GOP state this cycle.

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Ed you were more than willing to through the WAA poll under the bus show the same level of honestly on the Q poll which is much more egregious in its flagrant bias.

Q poll– toss it out.

Skwor on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Now that’s some picken!

Vince on June 27, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Quinnipiac’s sample is slightly more Democratic-leaning than the previous poll. In the latest poll, 34 percent of voters said they generally consider themselves Democrats, compared to 26 percent who say they are Republicans. In the early May survey, 31 percent of voters were Democrats, and 29 percent were Republicans.

An 8-point oversampling of Dems? I know they’re doing everything they can to suppress Republican turnout, but unlike the drivebys, pollsters actually have to maintain some semblance of credibility.

BTW, Obama ain’t winning Ohio. He took the state by 4 points in 2008 which wasn’t exactly a dominant margin compared to other states. He’ll likely lose by 4 or 5 points in November.

Doughboy on June 27, 2012 at 9:27 AM

What has happened recently that would make Obama’s lead expand? He’s probably ahead by a little at this point, but he’s not exactly had a run of good news lately, and there’s nothing else that would’ve shifted the race markedly in one direction or the other.

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Strippers and cross-country skiers most affected.

Fallon on June 27, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Ed you were more than willing to through the WAA poll under the bus show the same level of honestly on the Q poll which is much more egregious in its flagrant bias.

Q poll– toss it out.

Skwor on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Let me guess. You didn’t actually read the post before commenting, right?

Ed Morrissey on June 27, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Your concern has been noted and filed for future reference. Team Bark thanks you for your support and will send you a nice coffee mug emblazoned with “Hope and Change Again”.

Bishop on June 27, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Polls give me a headache.

gophergirl on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Since 2009 Republicans backed by the Tea Party have scored victories from New Jersey and Massachusetts, to the 2010 mid-terms, and just recently Walker’s victory in Wisconsin. You tell me, what seems more accurate, the raft of almost impossible victories or msm polling?

rob verdi on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Trying to not have an Allah moment over a poll in June, but I live in Ohio.

gsherin on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

“What has happened recently that would make Obama’s lead expand? He’s probably ahead by a little at this point, but he’s not exactly had a run of good news lately, and there’s nothing else that would’ve shifted the race markedly in one direction or the other.”

IMO, it’s the likability factor that Obama enjoys in spades. No matter how bad the news, the public just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

How is he bleeding support? Because one pollster has him doing poorly? To me that says a lot more about Quinnipiac than it does Romney. As for him being boring, the entire Presidential campaign right now is dull. We’re in the period between the primary and the conventions(also known as the summertime) where not much is going on and we’re waiting for the real event to kick off in a couple months.

Since the economy appears unlikely to improve between now and November, it’ll likely come down to Romney needing to give a good speech in Tampa and coming off as likable and competent in the debates. He does that and he’ll win in November.

Doughboy on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

…these must be prison penitentiary polls or something!…JugEars should not be out of the single digits if anyone has two brain cells to rub together.

KOOLAID2 on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Making those sorts of conclusions based on one poll of FL is pretty silly. Plus, what is with this preoccupation with a so-called “boring” campaign? Do you want a shallow, glitzy campaign where Mitt is hobnobbing with snobby Hollywood starlets and relying on silly sloganeering, a la Obama? I get the impression the economy remains the biggest worry…boring will work just fine for people if they decide that beats whatever Obama has done and is offering.

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 9:34 AM

IMO, it’s the likability factor that Obama enjoys in spades. No matter how bad the news, the public just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Then why does his party keep losing races even in instances where he actively campaigns for the Democrat nominee? His likability is a myth. People may not hate him, but that doesn’t mean they’re enamored with the job he’s doing and want him around for another term. Also, don’t discount the fear folks have of trashing a (half)black President when speaking to pollsters.

Doughboy on June 27, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I trust this poll like I trust the one Gallup just did that says Obama is more likable than Romney.

Yeah, I can just imagine someone who likes self-centered self-congratulatory legend-in-their-own-mind arrogant narcissism at its absolute zenith!

pilamaye on June 27, 2012 at 9:36 AM

What about Q’s Florida poll, which uses a decent sample and still shows Romney doing terrible there?

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Basic rule: Any poll that shows Obama winning by more than he did in 2008 is garbage. Therefore, both OH and FL Q-polls are garbage.

Jon0815 on June 27, 2012 at 9:37 AM

IMO, it’s the likability factor that Obama enjoys in spades. No matter how bad the news, the public just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I love how he flooded the underground with assault weapons.

Electrongod on June 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Let me guess. You didn’t actually read the post before commenting, right?

Ed Morrissey on June 27, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Wrong, I read it thoroughly, I saw where you prefer the PPP over the Q this time but you normally would go with the Q. My point is you seemed much more willing to toss the WAA out and your posting language was much harsher on it than you were willing to criticize the Q poll.

However my posting was in poor form I should not used the word “honestly” or left any room for such implication. Really my point was about each poll deserving to be tossed out. I apologize for making such an implication, sorry. I know better of your writing.

Skwor on June 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Basic rule: Any poll that shows Obama winning by more than he did in 2008 is garbage. Therefore, both OH and FL Q-polls are garbage.

Jon0815 on June 27, 2012 at 9:37 AM

More specifically, any poll that shows a larger sample of Dems over Republicans than 2008 should immediately be dismissed. The exit polls will be a lot closer to 2010′s results than 2008′s.

Doughboy on June 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

“His likability is a myth. People may not hate him, but that doesn’t mean they’re enamored with the job he’s doing and want him around for another term. Also, don’t discount the fear folks have of trashing a (half)black President when speaking to pollsters.”

So every poll is wrong then? Obama is not seen as more likable than Romney?

C’mon, there is no fear when talking to pollsters. There was no Bradley effect in 08. The polls were right then and they are right now. But go ahead and ignore them and it will be a rude awakening in Nov, like it was in 08.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Heh. Wishful thinking. I guess you haven’t noticed all of the polls showing O “bleeding support,” or the battleground states moving toward Romney, or the Romney fundraising advantage?

Q-poll oversamples Dems and all of a sudden Mitt is “bleeding support”….

Priscilla on June 27, 2012 at 9:42 AM

OH’s being flooded with negative ads from Team 0.

The state economy is improving, but that’s due to Kasich, who’s not getting squat for credit.

The public-sector unions are also terrified of Wisconsin. They know Barry is all that stands between them and sweeping reform.

And, as I thought, DREAM-Lite actually hurt Barry.

IMO, Barry’s up in OH, but only by four, max.

Romney needs some polls in July that lean his way in certain categories, then he’ll carry the state.

budfox on June 27, 2012 at 9:42 AM

IMO, it’s the likability factor that Obama enjoys in spades. No matter how bad the news, the public just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Likability is one thing, but at the end of the day people still need to put food on the table. Whatever personal appeal the man has (which I don’t understand) didn’t help in the Republican wave of ’10. Or Tom Barrett in WI. Or the Dems who’ve decided they’re skipping his coronation in Charlotte.

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Basic rule: Any poll that shows Obama winning by more than he did in 2008 is garbage. Therefore, both OH and FL Q-polls are garbage.

Jon0815 on June 27, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Exactly.

rob verdi on June 27, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Ed, thank you very much for continuing to dissect these polls. I woke up this morning to a depressing radio report spinning this MBC/WSJ poll in Obama’s favor.

The Obama campaign knows things aren’t that great, and that explains some of their desperate moves, such as the ridiculous claim that Obama wasn’t really booed in Boston for his baseball remark about.

Drained Brain on June 27, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Alternate headline: Just how big is Obama’s lead in Ohio?

Plus, what is with this preoccupation with a so-called “boring” campaign? Do you want a shallow, glitzy campaign where Mitt is hobnobbing with snobby Hollywood starlets and relying on silly sloganeering, a la Obama?

Relying on sloganeering? Perhaps you’re unfamiliar with this thing we call “politics.” Problem for Romney is that he doesn’t have star power OR any actual concrete economic plans. He has been very slow to actually campaign on a specific economic agenda. I think it has to do with the fact that he’s just going to propose the same ol same old GOP supply side economics. He is being purposefully vague because he knows supply side does not poll well right now “less taxes for the wealthy etc.” and regulations are polling about middle. Right now *all* of Romney’s support is coming from anti-Obama people. But for undecideds he’s not giving them a reason to support him. Kerry made the same mistake and he was polling better than Romney was at this point in 2004. He didn’t have an actual plan for Iraq, just arguments as to why Bush was bad.

libfreeordie on June 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Let me guess. You didn’t actually read the post before commenting, right?

Ed Morrissey on June 27, 2012 at 9:30 AM

..OUCH! You’re a great headline writer, Ed!

The War Planner on June 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Another day, another rigged poll trying to manipulate us into thinking Obama is running away with this election. Yawn.

eyedoc on June 27, 2012 at 9:47 AM

OH’s being flooded with negative ads from Team 0.

budfox on June 27, 2012 at 9:42 AM

So is Florida. Using the same bs talking points against Romney that even the Washington Post says is false.

Flora Duh on June 27, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I thought Quinnipiac was best know for sampling northeast states, not Ohio. I don’t trust any poll that PPP puts out that’s for sure.

SouthernGent on June 27, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I’m a soul pole man . . . . . .

parody by Paul Shanklin

listens2glenn on June 27, 2012 at 9:48 AM

IMO, Barry’s up in OH, but only by four, max.

budfox on June 27, 2012 at 9:42 AM

The RCP average has Obama up in OH by only 2.6, and that includes the absurd Obama +9 Q-poll. Throw that out and it would be Obama +1.

Jon0815 on June 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Basic rule: Any poll that shows Obama winning by more than he did in 2008 is garbage. Therefore, both OH and FL Q-polls are garbage.

Jon0815 on June 27, 2012 at 9:37 AM

More specifically, any poll that shows a larger sample of Dems over Republicans than 2008 should immediately be dismissed. The exit polls will be a lot closer to 2010′s results than 2008′s.

Doughboy on June 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

And the state of Ohio isn’t getting any more liberal. While I did move out of Ohio in 2009, about 6 or more of my liberal acquaintances from high school (and now on Facebook) have moved out of Ohio since 2010.

Obama doesn’t have a chance in Ohio. As I keep saying, I think Obama realizes this and that’s why he stays north of Mansfield now when he does decide to visit. He was booed at Ohio State and almost all of Ohio south of U.S. 30 and west of S.R. 13 is blood red.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Obama: Ohio is just disappointed in me because I couldn’t name any players from the Ohio White’s Sockses.

The Rogue Tomato on June 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM

C’mon, there is no fear when talking to pollsters. There was no Bradley effect in 08. The polls were right then and they are right now. But go ahead and ignore them and it will be a rude awakening in Nov, like it was in 08.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:40 AM

That’s a crock.

I got phone-polled two weeks ago, and found myself pulling back on burying Barry. I still voiced disapproval, but I didn’t pound on him.

While it’s called a poll, it’s actually a job review, in how the questions are structured. The majority of people do not like to criticize anyone in those situations, unless your actual job calls for that kind of attitude.

budfox on June 27, 2012 at 9:50 AM

libfreeordie on June 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Right and your precious little Savior is just in the driver’s seat and is the unstoppable force. Funny how he never seems to be able to crack even 50% ever in any national poll, even the insanely dishonest ones.

gsherin on June 27, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I love how he flooded the underground with assault weapons.

Electrongod on June 27, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Yes, it certainly made me like him better when I learned how his DOJ (probably at his direction) put mine and my neighbors’ lives at greater risk by handing over thousands of semi-automatic guns to the vicious Mexican drug cartels that have the freedom to roam through our neighborhoods here in southern AZ, thanks to Obama’s refusal to secure the border or enforce immigration laws.

What’s not to like about a guy who thinks promoting his leftist, anti-gun, open-borders ideology is more important than safeguarding actual American lives?

AZCoyote on June 27, 2012 at 9:51 AM

A possible Inexplicable Perplexation!
(sarc)

canopfor on June 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Yes, because the Q-Polls have been so accurate in the run-up to the last set of elections.

Not.

Look at the methodology. It sucks.

Marcus Traianus on June 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You do not need too much analysis to state with a fact that Quinnipiac Ohio poll is a JOKE. Obama won Ohio by 3 points in 2008, now does anyone with an IQ over 90 and not a left wing delusional lunatic believes that in 2012 Obama has 9 points advantage over Romney in Ohio?

mnjg on June 27, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Florida’s Hispanic voters back Obama 56 percent to 32 percent, compared to 49 percent to 39 percent in a June 21 Quinnipiac University poll, conducted before Obama and Romney each made major addresses on immigration policy.

The president leads 85 percent to 6 percent among black voters while white voters back Romney 50 percent to 35 percent. Obama leads 47 percent to 40 percent among women, while men are divided with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for Romney.

Obama leads 81 percent to 7 percent among Democrats and 44 percent to 37 percent among independent voters, losing Republicans 86 percent to 8 percent.

Voters split 47 percent to 49 percent in their approval of the job Obama is doing and 46 percent to 47 percent on whether he deserves four more years.

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 percent to 47 percent favorability, while Romney gets a negative 37 percent to 42 percent favorability rating.

Romney would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Florida voters say, while 44 percent say Obama would do a better job. Obama would be better for their personal economic future, 46 percent of voters say, compared to 45 percent for Romney.

Florida voters support Obama’s immigration initiative 58 percent to 33 percent and say 46 percent to 40 percent the president would do a better job on immigration. naplesnews.com

Flora Duh on June 27, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Sooner or later, even the polling companies need credibility. These numbers will change.

bflat879 on June 27, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Relying on sloganeering? Perhaps you’re unfamiliar with this thing we call “politics.” Problem for Romney is that he doesn’t have star power OR any actual concrete economic plans. He has been very slow to actually campaign on a specific economic agenda. I think it has to do with the fact that he’s just going to propose the same ol same old GOP supply side economics. He is being purposefully vague because he knows supply side does not poll well right now “less taxes for the wealthy etc.” and regulations are polling about middle. Right now *all* of Romney’s support is coming from anti-Obama people. But for undecideds he’s not giving them a reason to support him. Kerry made the same mistake and he was polling better than Romney was at this point in 2004. He didn’t have an actual plan for Iraq, just arguments as to why Bush was bad.

libfreeordie on June 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Please. All Obama had in ’08 was a silly slogan…he hid behind an unpopular incumbent and the “historic” nature of his candidacy. That’s all. It boiled down to ‘vote for me because I’m black and I’m not Bush’. His economic plan? I’m not Bush. His foreign policy? I’m not Bush. There’s never been a more shallow, vapid campaign.

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 9:54 AM

As we get closer to November, 2012, polls will cease to release any sample data and show Obama with a minimum 10-point spread in his favor. All hail The Won!

Turtle317 on June 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

DARE I SAY IT. YAWN another poll thread.

gerry-mittbot-polls hurt my head

gerrym51 on June 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

What about Q’s Florida poll, which uses a decent sample and still shows Romney doing terrible there? FL was supposed to be the safe GOP state this cycle.

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Do not feed the concern troll. That is all.

jaymil on June 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

In the 2010 midterms, exit polls showed the D/R/I in Ohio as slightly Republican at 36/37/28.

What reason is there to think that turnout in 2012 is going to mirror that in 2010?

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Don’t trust any poll, good or bad for either candidate, except the National Poll on Nov 6th.

msupertas on June 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Relying on sloganeering?

libfreeordie on June 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

libfreeordie:

I give you your comment name,LibFreeOrDie

Exhibit “A”,

I rest my case!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on June 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Five pollsters have polled the presidential race in Ohio in the past month, and each of these pollsters have Ohio polls from one or two months prior for comparison:

NBC/Marist:
* 2/29-3/2 Obama +12
* 5/17-5/20 Obama +6 (net shift Romney +8)

PPP:
* 5/3-5/6 Obama +7
* 6/21-6/24 Obama +3 (net shift Romney +4)

Purple Strategies:
* 4/19-4/23 Obama +5
* 5/31-6/5 Romney +3 (net shift Romney +8)

Quinnipiac:
* 5/2-5/7 Obama +1
* 6/19-6/25 Obama +9 (net shift Obama +8)

Rasmussen:
* 4/18-4/18 Obama +4
* 5/29-5/29 Romney +2 (net shift Romney +6)

So four pollsters show movement towards Romney; only Quinnipiac shows movement towards Obama. I wouldn’t be too concerned about this particular Q poll, especially given the sampling issues that Ed points out above.

steebo77 on June 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

ddrintn,
How about the some the of GOP wins since 2010.

rob verdi on June 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Me thinks these poles,er,polls could be slippery!!
(sarc).

canopfor on June 27, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Please. All Obama Romney had has in ’08 ’12 was a silly slogan…he hid behind an unpopular incumbent and the “historic” nature of his candidacy. That’s all. It boiled down to ‘vote for me because I’m black and I’m not Bush not Obama’. His economic plan? I’m not Bush Obama. His foreign policy? I’m not Bush Obama. There’s never been a more shallow, vapid campaign.

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Oh, the irony and lack of self-awareness.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 9:59 AM

It should also be pointed out that Quinnipiac has the Ohio Senate race moving from Brown 46, Mandel 40 (Brown +6) in their prior poll to Brown 50, Mandel 34 (Brown +16) in their current poll. That, on its face, is absurd.

steebo77 on June 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Mitt seems to be bleeding support now. Maybe his campaign is just flat-out boring and he’s a terrible candidate.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I want this Axeltroll to tell us all what makes Obama a good candidate, and what it is about the last 3 1/2 years that we are supposed to want more of.

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Problem for Romney is that he doesn’t have star power OR any actual concrete economic plans. He has been very slow to actually campaign on a specific economic agenda. I think it has to do with the fact that he’s just going to propose the same ol same old GOP supply side economics.

libfreeordie on June 27, 2012 at 9:45 AM

..it’s twits like liverfreeordie that make one wake up and reach for a shot of Jack. Someone please tell this clod to go read what’s on his campaign website with respect for a “concrete economic plan”. He’s enunciated what he plans to do on taxes, trade, energy, and so on. But I guess Barky’s paying him to post, not read.

Frankly, after getting hit in the head by four years of this Pantload’s ineptness, most folks would settle for “not what Obama’s doing”.

And the good ol’ supply side economics worked for Reagan and there’s about 20 million folks who’d trade 5% unemployment for 8.2% unemployment.

The War Planner on June 27, 2012 at 10:00 AM

“Don’t trust any poll, good or bad for either candidate, except the National Poll on Nov 6th.”

Ah, the loser’s lament!

THE ONLY POLL THAT MATTERS IS ON ELECTION DAY!!!

And the only people that say that are on the losing side.

I can remember everyone saying that in 1996 and 2008!

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 10:01 AM

..of course I meant “8.2% unemployment for 5% unemployment.”

See what I mean about driving one to drink in the morning?

The War Planner on June 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

ddrintn,
How about the some the of GOP wins since 2010.

rob verdi on June 27, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Still special elections. You’re talking this year about a national presidential election. That’s like saying the turnout here for the mayoral election in my town is going to be reflective of turnout nationally in November.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Oh, the irony and lack of self-awareness.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Starting your Obama trolling awfully early, aren’t you?

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

No matter how bad the news, the public just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

Is that why no Democrat wants to be seen within 50 miles of the guy? Because he’s so loved?

Axelrod really needs to send trolls with a little bit more substance and intelligence over to Hot Air to pollute these threads.

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Oh, the irony and lack of self-awareness.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 9:59 AM

I’m still waiting for an answer from you on a question I asked you 3 times.

You going to answer, or just continue with your regularly scheduled pissin’ and moanin’ about Romney?

Flora Duh on June 27, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Quinnipiac’s sample is slightly more Democratic-leaning than the previous poll. In the latest poll, 34 percent of voters said they generally consider themselves Democrats, compared to 26 percent who say they are Republicans. In the early May survey, 31 percent of voters were Democrats, and 29 percent were Republicans.

In the 2010 midterms, exit polls showed the D/R/I in Ohio as slightly Republican at 36/37/28. The sample in the Q-poll now looks more like the 2008 model, where Democrats had an eight-point advantage, 39/31/30.

So Kwin-uh-pee-ack shows Obama winning 47-38 in a sample of 34/26/40? If Obama got all the Dems and Romney got all the Reps, the Indies are now 13-12 for Obama, with 15% undecided (out of the entire sample), or 33-30 for Obama with 37% undecided (out of Indies alone). If the turnout is similar to 2010, the race would be dead-even, and if 37% of Indies haven’t made up their minds yet, that’s over 10% of the total electorate. Let the battle for their minds begin!

Steve Z on June 27, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Oh, the irony and lack of self-awareness.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Starting your Obama trolling awfully early, aren’t you?

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

What trolling? You ‘bot trolls use the exact same rationales in extolling Romney that you’re pinning on O-bots. “Mitt’s not being specific! Brilliant!!!! All we need to do is concnetrate on ousting that hated Obama!!!!!”

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Gee, the trolls sure are hitting this thread hard over a poll that is so obviously an outlier… just sayin’….

Turtle317 on June 27, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I’m still waiting for an answer from you on a question I asked you 3 times.

You going to answer, or just continue with your regularly scheduled pissin’ and moanin’ about Romney?

Flora Duh on June 27, 2012 at 10:04 AM

What question? The immigration thing from a thread yesterday? Good grief. OK, let’s start with the wish that maybe Romney of last year jibes with the Romney of today. But I know that’s too much to ask. Now go back to sticking your head in the sand.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 10:08 AM

No matter how bad the news, the public just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

A 3.5 yr incumbent, “historic” Pres. who can’t get passed mid-40s in approval rating =likability? America needs a leader, not a crock star.

hillsoftx on June 27, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The Florida poll is the important one, not OH with the bad sample.

What’s wrong with the FL sample?

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Apparently the Bain attack and Hispanic pandering worked on low information voters.

bayview on June 27, 2012 at 10:09 AM

O. has been having ads here that are full of lies here (Ohio) about Romney. But I expect that from his campaign. Certain to have some impact on the polls.

sadatoni on June 27, 2012 at 10:11 AM

In other news PPP and Q-poll just announced that my local dog catcher is ahead of both Odumbo and Romney in the latest survey. I’m a little suspect on the sampling, though. BooBoo is a known dog eater and Romney, well, he lets dogs hitchhike on his car’s roof. So, I don’t know whether I should trust it or not.

msupertas on June 27, 2012 at 10:11 AM

What question? The immigration thing from a thread yesterday? Good grief. OK, let’s start with the wish that maybe Romney of last year jibes with the Romney of today. But I know that’s too much to ask. Now go back to sticking your head in the sand.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nope, that’s the easy way out. Here’s the question to refresh your recollection.

Flora Duh on June 27, 2012 at 10:11 AM

ddrintn,
I honestly don’t believe the elites ad people who craft these polls really appreciate how much the underlying plate tectonics of the american political landscape have shifted.

rob verdi on June 27, 2012 at 10:12 AM

The Florida poll is the important one, not OH with the bad sample.

What’s wrong with the FL sample?

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Don’t know, honestly. But as a baseline, I would look at what Obama won it with (as a %) in 2008. I would then look at his favorability ratings now, and the change in D/R/I makeup in FL vs. 2008.

If you have a poll spouting some nonsense outside that range, it becomes an outlier, IMO.

Turtle317 on June 27, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Hey Gumbey, you still haven’t explained why so many Democrat politicians don’t want to be seen anywhere near The One? Why so many of them are boycotting the Democrat Convention? Or why donors are fleeing him in droves, with the exception of Hollywood twits like Sarah Jessica Parker–whose political acumen you no doubt worship.

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:13 AM

No matter how bad the news, the public media just loves the guy personally. Makes it REALLY tough to beat him.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 9:31 AM

At least be accurate, dumby.

msupertas on June 27, 2012 at 10:14 AM

What trolling? You ‘bot trolls use the exact same rationales in extolling Romney that you’re pinning on O-bots. “Mitt’s not being specific! Brilliant!!!! All we need to do is concnetrate on ousting that hated Obama!!!!!”

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 10:06 AM

What trolling? Ha! I don’t know…maybe the fact you jump on every thread just to b!tch about Romney. We get it…you don’t like him, won’t be voting for him, he’s gonna lose…that about cover it?

Incidentally, your extreme bitterness and knee jerk ‘but Romney SUCKS’ reaction made you miss the point entirely. The other Obama troll suggested Obama had more to his campaign beyond mere slogans…I was pointing out he, in fact, does not and did not in ’08.

changer1701 on June 27, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Both are crap polls, but the Q Poll, as always, is a joke. Does Quinnipniac realize that the goal of polls is to paint a picture of what is likely to happen if the election were held today, not what they want to happen if the election were held today.

There is no way that either Brown wins by 16 or that Romney loses Ohio by 9.

And PPP always over-samples Democrats (all they admit they are biased by stating they are democrat affiliated), so you always have to take what they with some skepticsm.

So, both of these polls are worthless imo.

If I had to guess, Brown is probably up by 5-8 right now, and Romney is either tied or up by a point.

milcus on June 27, 2012 at 10:15 AM

A graphical representation of all Ohio polling in the past two months easily demonstrates that this poll is an outlier.

Romney..Pollster/
Margin….Date

+3%………Purple Strategies (5/31-6/5)
+2%………Rasmussen (5/29)
+1%
0%
-1%
-2%……….Quinnipiac (4/25-5/1)
-3%……….PPP (6/21-24)
-4%
-5%
-6%……….NBC/Marist (5/17-20)
-7%……….PPP (5/3-6)
-8%
-9%……..Quinnipiac (6/19-25)

steebo77 on June 27, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I will say based on what I here, white men 100% Rmoney™ 0% Obammy. And I also here either most white women 80% Rmoney™ 10%obammy 10% staying home. Just MY observations from N/E Ohio ………

angrymike on June 27, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Every statewide election since 2009 that could be interpreted as a referendum on Obama has gone against him, from the gubernatorial races in NJ and Va. in 2009 to Scott Brown in 2010 to North Carolina’s vote on gay marriage to the Scott Walker recall election.

Can anyone name a single statewide election with national implications in the last 2 1/2 years that has suggested increasing support for the punk in chief?

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Still special elections. You’re talking this year about a national presidential election. That’s like saying the turnout here for the mayoral election in my town is going to be reflective of turnout nationally in November.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Special elections? Those are actually the only ones where the Dems are still performing alright. The Democrat Party lost in 2009 in the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, both states Obama won handily in 2008. The Democrats got destroyed in the midterms. They lost numerous recall elections in Wisconsin, including the big one against Walker a few weeks ago. They’ve lost ballot initiatives by overwhelming margins like the gay marriage one in North Carolina(another Obama state in 2008, albeit barely) and the Obamacare measure in Missouri. And yes, a couple of high profile special elections have gone against them, most notably the Ted Kennedy and Anthony Weiner seats in the Senate and House respectively.

Bottom line is since Obama’s inauguration and implementation of his agenda, the Democrats have consistently gotten their asses handed to them all over the country, even in deep blue states like Jersey and MassachusettEs. Which means the product Obama’s selling is something the public doesn’t want anymore. That’s why all of these polls are meaningless. Almost all of them rely on samples that will almost certainly look nothing like the actual turnout on November 6.

Doughboy on June 27, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Can anyone name a single statewide election with national implications in the last 2 1/2 years that has suggested increasing support for the punk in chief?

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Here in the liberal city of Asheville, I staged an unbiased poll sampling of Obama favorability in a men’s restroom. I placed a picture of Obama in a urinal. To be accurate, I had one urinal with no picture of Obama. In the test, the picture had been “used” by roughly 65% of the polling sample, therefore I can only assume he had a favorability rating of 65%.

Disclaimer: I was unable to get a sample from the women’s restroom, the sample was conducted only among men.

Turtle317 on June 27, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Right Mover just made the point I was thinking. These early polls are fun (or depressing) but the elections we’ve seen are more telling.

tj4osu on June 27, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Oh, and who was that kid on the mandolin?!!

tj4osu on June 27, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Gumby has mysteriously vanished from this thread (without answering any of my perfectly legitimate, relevant questions).

Off to Axelrod for more talking points, I suppose.

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Odd, so did ddrintn without answering mine.

Flora Duh on June 27, 2012 at 10:50 AM

“Hey Gumbey, you still haven’t explained why so many Democrat politicians don’t want to be seen anywhere near The One?”

The only notable one is Sen McCaskill, and MO has been trending Right for a while now. Smart politics from her, imo. Others are in swing/trending Right districts and again it’s smart politics.

If you want to believe the polls are wrong, go right ahead. But don’t come whining about how stupid the people are on election night when you should have been prepared for the result. Whichever side is bitching about the polls is losing, plain and simple.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 10:50 AM

test

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 10:59 AM

“Hey Gumbey, you still haven’t explained why so many Democrat politicians don’t want to be seen anywhere near The One?”

The only notable ones are Sen McCaskill and Tester, and MO has been trending Right for a while now. Smart politics from her, imo. Others are in swing/trending Right districts and again it’s smart politics.

If you want to believe the polls are wrong, go right ahead. But don’t come whining about how stupid the people are on election night when you should have been prepared for the result. Whichever side is whining about the polls is losing, plain and simple.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 11:01 AM

While these don’t make much sense (Romney tied in MI, within the margin of error in PA, and getting blown out in OH? yeah…) and I fully agree that any poll showing Dems turning out more than 2008 or Obama doing better than in 2008 should be tossed in the garbage, Romney is having an issue connecting in swing states. The Wall Street Journal had a story a couple weeks ago about Republican governors growing concerned that as most swing states are doing very well thanks to the Republican governors and statehouses they elected in 2010 all Romney does is talk doom and gloom when he visits.

Like with Ohio, the unemployment rate has fallen rapidly to 7.2%, jobs are being added at over twice the national rate, and in 2011 Ohio became the #1 state in business expansions. The first time Ohio has done this well compared to the nation in decades. Rather than talk this up and how he would bring what Kasich is doing here to the nation, Romney talks doom and gloom and it’s all Obama’s fault.

Romney responded to concerns that his all doom and gloom all the time message wasn’t working well in swing states by saying something like he’s running to be president not governor of one state. So, hope it works for him.

If you want to believe the polls are wrong, go right ahead. But don’t come whining about how stupid the people are on election night when you should have been prepared for the result. Whichever side is whining about the polls is losing, plain and simple.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 11:01 AM | Delete | Delete and Ban

You really put stock in polls almost 5 months out? Save your trolling for the last few weeks when pollsters have to be accurate to preserve their reputations.

jarodea on June 27, 2012 at 11:12 AM

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 11:01 AM

You never answered this one: Tell us all what makes Obama a good candidate, and what it is about the last 3 1/2 years that we are supposed to want more of.

Right Mover on June 27, 2012 at 11:13 AM

The only notable ones are Sen McCaskill and Tester

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 11:01 AM

And Manchin, and Tomblin, Matheson, Israel, and Critz, and, and, and…

steebo77 on June 27, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I took a poll myself to see what today’s snapshot of the Nov. election will produce if it were held today.

10 people. 3 democrats, 3 republicans, 4 independents. All likely voters in the state of Michigan.

Obama………….Romney (no other choices given)
1…………………….2 Dems
0…………………….3 Repubs
0…………………….4 Indies

Note; the ONE that said they’d go for zero was waffling. When asked for a reason for voting for either the responses were;

Disliked the socialistic / progressive direction of obama—– 5
Disliked the anti union stance of Romney———————1 (honestly I never heard that one before, but OK)
Disliked the direction obama is taking the economy———-3
Other (would not elaborate)————————————1

All likely voters were suburban or rural citizens of the USA that voted in 2008, broken down:

obama———-mccain
3—————–0 Dems
1—————–2 Repubs
3—————–1 Indies

Wolfmoon on June 27, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Wolfmoon on June 27, 2012 at 11:47 AM

I keep seeing the same kind of results here. However, in the metropolitan areas, I think we would see different results as the “D’s” tend to get a lot more liberal.

In NC, once you go outside of the metropolises and look into suburbia and rural, you find a lot of old-fashioned solid-south conservative “D’s” I think the term used for them is “Jessie-crats,” meaning they were Jessie Helms(R) voters when he was senator of this state. While they are diminishing, they still make up a substantial portion of the NC voting Dems.

Turtle317 on June 27, 2012 at 12:05 PM

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