Romney up 5 in Virginia?

posted at 11:21 am on June 26, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Can Mitt Romney pull Virginia back into the GOP column in November?  It’s a tall order.  Barack Obama won the state in 2008 by six points, and his $800 billion stimulus bill largely benefited the northern end of the state, where federal government work accounts for a significant portion of jobs in the state.  Democrats have had a track record of success in the state, although the 2009 elections turned into a disaster for them.  If Romney can carry Virginia, it puts him in position to retake Ohio and challenge in Pennsylvania as well.

One pollster shows him with a five-point lead at the moment (via News Alert).  We Ask America shows Romney up over Obama 48/43 in a survey of 1106 likely voters — which would be a remarkable lead against a sitting incumbent at this stage of the race.  The same pollster shows Obama edging Romney in Colorado by about four, 47/43, in another state Obama won in 2008.

However, there are a couple of caveats.  We Ask America’s final poll in the Wisconsin recall race accurately predicted that Scott Walker would win it, but overshot the gap, predicting a 12-point victory (their previous poll a week earlier hit it almost exactly at seven points, though).  Furthermore, WAA also polled the Senate race and found newly-nominated Republican candidate George Allen nine points ahead of Democratic candidate Tim Kaine, who only got 35% of the respondents in the survey.  That seems very low for a well-known Democrat like Kaine (both men served one term as governor), far below what Kaine has received in every other poll for the race over the last two months, according to Real Clear Politics.  In fact, this is the only poll listed that shows Allen with any kind of lead, although most of them have the race within the margins of error.  Similarly, the list of presidential-election polls of Virginia at RCP show Obama leading or tied, although the most recent is more than three weeks old.

Right now, this looks like an outlier.  If subsequent polling shows Romney ahead and Allen going up over Kaine, then perhaps this will be considered the bellwether, but for the moment it’s not much more than speculative.

Update: Romney’s not going to take anything in Virginia for granted, CBS reports:

“We’re going to make sure that we not only match them, but exceed them, door knock for door knock, phone call for phone call,” says Pete Snyder, who is chairing the RNC’s Victory campaign in Virginia. One Romney staffer sounds identical to an Obama staffer in every other state: “It will be tight because they’re spending a lot of money here – but we feel confident because of the ground game.” …

The Romney campaign’s primary effort was “adult and systematic,” says Snyder. “The other campaigns were sort of flying by the seat of their pants and just couldn’t get it done.” (Romney himself joked about his opponents inability to reach the 10,000 mark – comparing Newt Gingrich’s bemoaning the issue to an episode of “I Love Lucy” at a chocolate factory. “I mean, you gotta get it organized,” Romney quipped.)

Now that they’re past the primary. Romney’s campaign is working hard to only keep that momentum building. They have melded with the Virginia GOP and are fully taking advantage of a ground game infrastructure that was somewhat ripe for the picking in Virginia. When running for governor in 2009, Bob McDonnell set up nine offices across the state in order to get out the vote, and since Virginia has elections every year on different statewide offices, Republican volunteers and staffers have inhabited them ever since. Like the Obama campaign, they take social media seriously, tailoring Facebook and Twitter outreach to different communities, and hawkishly monitor when items are shared or retweeted. Also similarly to their Democratic counterparts, they have “neighborhood captains” — people who lead volunteer troops in certain areas.

Romney and Ron Paul were the only two Republicans to organize effectively in Virginia in the GOP primary.  That will make a difference in November, but it will still be a tough fight.

Update II: I received a friendly note from Gregg Durham, COO of We Ask America, asking me to present their case for accuracy in their polling, which I’m happy to do:

  • The American Research Group (americanresearchgroup.com) tracked us as the most accurate pollster in the nation for the GOP presidential primaries. It’s easy to find on their website.
  • We were the only pollster in the nation to get the Nebraska Senate race right…and we were less than a .5% off the final spread (again, the American Research Group verifies that accomplishment).
  • We were one of the few pollsters who accurately predicted the win by Mark Critz (D) over Tim Burns (R) in Pennsylvania’s 12th District after John Murtha died.
  • We predicted the final total for Rahm Emanuel in the Chicago Mayoral Primary within .4%.
There are numerous other polls from our public site that we can use to make our case. Note that we’re very public about our miscues; check out our post on Tennessee. We blew that one by a mile…yet still earned the top spot in the American Research Group’s rankings. Unlike some pollsters whose mistakes magically disappear, we hang ours out for public consumption.
While we own up to having too big a spread in Wisconsin, our post on it warned loud and clear that we believed it would be closer due to unions’ ability to get out the vote (http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/04/who-survives/).

Fair points all. We’ll continue to look at WAA survey results throughout the election, of course.


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We Ask America basically ruined their reputation forever with that awful final poll in the Walker recall.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM

ElectronGod…He better be!

KOOLAID2 on June 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Love it…

OmahaConservative on June 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Between this poll analysis, Ed’s rebuke of Scalia’s outrageous oral dissent yesterday and Allah’s recent atheism-yay! posts HotAir may have a rebellion on their hands.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Obama’s path to 270 is more difficult without Virginia than Romney’s path.

aunursa on June 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

If Romney can carry Virginia, it puts him in position to retake Ohio and challenge in Pennsylvania as well.

I don’t understand this logic. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio it’s doubtful he will win Virginia, IMHO.

Rocks on June 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Its still very early, but this is a good sign. People want results. Obama has not delivered, so people will want a change.

smorrow66 on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I believe that Rombo drove through Virginia with a dog nailed to the roof of his car, and that’s a crime; he should be arrested.

Bishop on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I really do miss angryed.

Seriously, I do.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I remain convinced that if Romney makes McDonnell his VP, he’ll probably take the state. The chances of that seem pretty low these days, unfortunately.

Doomberg on June 26, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Obama’s path to 270 is more difficult without Virginia than Romney’s path.

aunursa on June 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Yes, I think they are viewing it correctly as their most difficult must win state. Short of pulling out Florida, I don’t see a plausible way for BO to win without VA at this point.

forest on June 26, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The few polls of likely voters are looking pretty good at this point. They may not be outliers if their turnout models prove accurate.

The demographics in Virginia, especially in northern Virginia, may have changed but the state overall is still winnable. The 2009 and 2010 elections proved that.

rockmom on June 26, 2012 at 11:30 AM

If Romney can carry Virginia, it puts him in position to retake Ohio and challenge in Pennsylvania as well.

I don’t understand this logic. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio it’s doubtful he will win Virginia, IMHO.

Rocks on June 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Agreed. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, then he’s not winning the presidency. As it is now though, Romney all but has Ohio in the bag.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 26, 2012 at 11:30 AM

That seems very low for a well-known Democrat like Kaine (both men served one term as governor), far below what Kaine has received in every other poll for the race over the last two months, according to Real Clear Politics.

VA GOV was Kaine’s second job, next to the DNC and electing Obama; and we in Virginia know it. Compared to his predecessor even, he didn’t do squat except caretake the Governor’s mansion. I’m surprised that he’s polling as well as he is with other firms.

This might be less an outlier than a vanguard.

JeffWeimer on June 26, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Romney will take Virginia. This is a traditionally red state. And it seems like a lot of statewide polls have shown Obama losing around 8 points on average. So if he took Virginia by 6 last time, he’ll lose it by at least 2 in November.

Doughboy on June 26, 2012 at 11:32 AM

A poll with this level of GOP bias has Obama up 3 in Colorado, if we can subtract 7 from the Romney margin for WAA polls thats a horrible showing for Romney.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:32 AM

We Ask America basically ruined their reputation forever with that awful final poll in the Walker recall.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Although PPP was off by virtually the same margin the other way (their final poll was Walker +3).

Jon0815 on June 26, 2012 at 11:32 AM

No necessarily an outlier Ed.

Rasmussen had it a 47/47 tie in its last poll in early June. Its not unreasonable that Romney has ticked up another point to 48.

Its also not unreasonable Obama has lost support given his last few weeks have been bad. The Rassmussen poll is the only other one with LVs in the model, so looks right.

Ca97 on June 26, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Doomberg on June 26, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Ditto – McDonnell rather than… Pawlenty.
Please.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I don’t understand this logic. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio it’s doubtful he will win Virginia, IMHO.

Rocks on June 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM | Delete | Delete and Ban

Typically the Republican Winning Ohio would mean he won Virginia is the point I think. Now whether that is still the case with Virginia becoming the Federal(or Imperial) District remains to be seen.

Its still very early, but this is a good sign. People want results. Obama has not delivered, so people will want a change.

smorrow66 on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM | Delete | Delete and Ban

Oh but he has delivered quite nicely for Virginia.

jarodea on June 26, 2012 at 11:34 AM

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

You may talk a lot, but you really haven’t spent much time here, have you?

JeffWeimer on June 26, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Agreed. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, then he’s not winning the presidency. As it is now though, Romney all but has Ohio in the bag.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 26, 2012 at 11:30 AM

That’s how I’m looking at it too. I don’t see a path to victory for him without OH, and he probably also needs VA, which is why I’ve been pounding the McDonnell drum. I’m uneasy that Romney hasn’t managed to pull decisively ahead of Obama in these swing states in spite of Obama having had some fantastically horrible weeks – or really months at this point.

Basically the administration is melting down, but the race still seems way too close to me for comfort…

Doomberg on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I could believe Romney up 5 in VA in November, but it seems pretty optimistic right now. After another “recovery summer” from the Obama regime, though, his campaign may be in meltdown mode.

jwolf on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Between this poll analysis, Ed’s rebuke of Scalia’s outrageous oral dissent yesterday and Allah’s recent atheism-yay! posts HotAir may have a rebellion on their hands.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Meh. Ed plays it straight on the polls and has a well-known disliking for what he sees as unhelpfully-heated rhetoric. And Allah has never tried to hide his atheism. If they haven’t provoked a rebellion yet, I don’t think it’s going to happen.

sadarj on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Be very careful with RCP averages. Some of the polls included are not real good polls. This poll was of likely voters, which is an important consideration. Many of the polls are of registered voters, and are not representative of who will determine the election’s outcome.

JayDick on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

This looks promising, but it’s still five months and a few days till Election Day. Complacency is the enemy of victory … remember that in 1948, Dewey was almost universally held to be a shoo-in over Truman, who was a wildly unpopular president in many quarters (liberal historical rewrites notwithstanding).

Scriptor on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I really do miss angryed.

Seriously, I do.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Not me.

Bitter Clinger on June 26, 2012 at 11:37 AM

The Democratic loss years in elections: 2009, 2010, 2011.

Obama is not on the march in VA.

He has problems finding people who want to be on the platform with him in VA.

If he is so popular, why can’t he find anyone to visibly stand next to him?

ajacksonian on June 26, 2012 at 11:37 AM

What can I say. Yawn-another poll.

Ed makes a thread about it then says don’t believe the poll.

gerry-mittbot-Ed pollster to the stars

gerrym51 on June 26, 2012 at 11:39 AM

The Democratic loss years in elections: 2009, 2010, 2011.

Obama is not on the march in VA.

He has problems finding people who want to be on the platform with him in VA.

If he is so popular, why can’t he find anyone to visibly stand next to him?

ajacksonian on June 26, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I always thought Obama liked standing alone. Remember Grant Park?

Bitter Clinger on June 26, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Although PPP was off by virtually the same margin the other way (their final poll was Walker +3).

Jon0815 on June 26, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Huh? Wasn’t the final margin 6? How is being off by 3 the same as being off by 6? WAA also doesn’t release their demographics. The “likely voter” models are really subject to bias these days. In 2008 they failed to account for young voters in 2010 they thought it would be 2008 like again and, I suspect, Rasmussen and WAA are assuming 2010 will be repeated.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Romney is here near Roanoke today speaking at noon at a place that sells heavy machinery used especially in coal mining. Hopefully it will be a good turn out. I got a phone call yesterday inviting us to attend the event. I can personally attest to the ground game. I get dozens of calls and mailers and an occasional personal visit during each campaign.

tims472 on June 26, 2012 at 11:40 AM

If these WAA polls have a GOP bias then the Obama +4 in CO is very disappointing.

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Romney winning Virginia is NOT a “tall order.” Obama won the state in an extremely bad year for Republicans, but it will move back into the GOP column this year. But let Obama waste his money there.

DRayRaven on June 26, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Huh? Wasn’t the final margin 6? How is being off by 3 the same as being off by 6? WAA also doesn’t release their demographics. The “likely voter” models are really subject to bias these days. In 2008 they failed to account for young voters in 2010 they thought it would be 2008 like again and, I suspect, Rasmussen and WAA are assuming 2010 will be repeated.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:40 AM | Delete | Delete and Ban

Well, the final margin was 6.8. Being off by 5.2 is about the same as 3.8 given margin of errors. Sure one looks slightly better but statistically one can’t be said to be better than the other.

jarodea on June 26, 2012 at 11:45 AM

VA is a much harder turn than OH for Romney because VA’s move to the Democrats is the result of demographic shifts. In 2008 Obama won OH because conservatives weren’t inspired.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Virginia is a tough one for Romney, particularly after the pandering to the mostly (but not completely) legal Hispanic population that will be voting in Northern Virginia.

That being said, sequestration is coming. Lockheed Martin announced today that it will be issuing layoff notices to 123,000 many who live in Northern Virginia as well.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 11:46 AM

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

AP is an atheist, and has been proselytizing for atheism for years. He actually has toned it down somewhat in the last couple of years. Know your bloggers.

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 11:46 AM

I could believe Romney up 5 in VA in November, but it seems pretty optimistic right now. After another “recovery summer” from the Obama regime, though, his campaign may be in meltdown mode.

jwolf on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

..stealing AP’s famous Eeyoreism, this Summer may NOT be as bad as the early year jobs numbers portend. It’s an outside shot and I don’t like feeling all gooey about high unemployment numbers because people are suffering, but the lower gas prices and overturning of ObamaCare (even just the mandate) might spur some employers to hire and lead to a small improvement in the jobs numbers by September/October.

As I said, it’s an outside shot.

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

I really do miss angryed.

Seriously, I do.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

He wasn’t banned, was he?

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

That being said, sequestration is coming. Lockheed Martin announced today that it will be issuing layoff notices to 123,000 many who live in Northern Virginia as well.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 11:46 AM

..on the other hand, what do I really know?

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I don’t know what to think of this poll until joanna shows up to tell us what to think of it.

Flora Duh on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

This is from WeAskAmerica (who?!) who had Romney up by 1 in MICHIGAN before Rasmussen came along a few days later and swatted them down. Grain of salt, indeed.

inthemiddle on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

At the end of the day, though…the Democrats can’t afford to hold their convention, but they are going to win the election? The big picture sure doesn’t bode well, is all I can say.

JFKY on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

If he is so popular, why can’t he find anyone to visibly stand next to him?

ajacksonian on June 26, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Being Southerners, we Virginians are automatically considered racist bitter clingers in Obama’s world.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

He wasn’t banned, was he?

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

..naw, mate, he reached critical mass on a thread one day and flamed out.

Nothing left but a greasy spot.

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I really do miss angryed.

Seriously, I do.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

There’s medication for that.

Lost in Jersey on June 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I don’t know what to think of this poll until joanna shows up to tell us what to think of it.

Flora Duh on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

*chortle*

You always seem to brighten my day and bring a smile to my face, ma’am!

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 11:51 AM

This is from WeAskAmerica (who?!) who had Romney up by 1 in MICHIGAN before Rasmussen came along a few days later and swatted them down. Grain of salt, indeed.

inthemiddle on June 26, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Do you even know what you’re talking about? I know you won’t hear this from a conservative, but Rasmussen was actually the outlier in this case.
The most recent Michigan polls:
Mitchell Research 6/18 – 6/18 750 LV 47 46 Obama +1
WeAskAmerica 6/18 – 6/18 1010 LV 43 45 Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports 6/14 – 6/14 500 LV 50 42 Obama +8
Baydoun/Foster (D) 6/12 – 6/12 1783 LV 47 46 Obama +1
EPIC-MRA 6/2 – 6/5 600 LV 45 46 Romney +1

GOPRanknFile on June 26, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Between this poll analysis, Ed’s rebuke of Scalia’s outrageous oral dissent yesterday and Allah’s recent atheism-yay! posts HotAir may have a rebellion on their hands.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

“Don’t count on it.”

VegasRick on June 26, 2012 at 11:52 AM

REPORT: Lieberman and McCain out possible leak source… Developing…

ot: via drudge…..

hmmmmmmmmmm

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 11:54 AM

I really do miss angryed.

Seriously, I do.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

There, there. We’ve still got ddrintn :)

thebrokenrattle on June 26, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Complacency is the enemy of victory

Despite an uninspiring candidate, I really do not believe complacency, under any circumstances, will be a problem when the stakes are getting the psychopath dictator wannabe the hell out of office.

Right Mover on June 26, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Between this poll analysis, Ed’s rebuke of Scalia’s outrageous oral dissent yesterday and Allah’s recent atheism-yay! posts HotAir may have a rebellion on their hands.

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Pot … meet stirrer.
Rabble… meet rouser.

No Sale.

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:55 AM

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Those chemicals you are imbibing are still illegal.

chemman on June 26, 2012 at 11:56 AM

libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:25 AM

AP is an atheist, and has been proselytizing for atheism for years. He actually has toned it down somewhat in the last couple of years. Know your bloggers.

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 11:46 AM

And we get along with him quite well. Which probably puzzles LFOD to no end. After all, all he knows is everyone must toe the party line or else. That’s how they roll at DU.

JeffWeimer on June 26, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Drudge has a link stating that VA Gov. McDonnell may be vetted for VP. Interesting.

tims472 on June 26, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Wow, this thread really has brought the Obama acolyte trolls out of the woodwork. Wonder why?

Right Mover on June 26, 2012 at 11:59 AM

He wasn’t banned, was he?

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Dunno.

I feel strangely cheated by his absence though.

If not banned… fleabagger?

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 12:00 PM

VA is a much harder turn than OH for Romney because VA’s move to the Democrats is the result of demographic shifts. In 2008 Obama won OH because conservatives weren’t inspired.
libfreeordie on June 26, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Do tell. What demographic shifts have their been exactly? A nice rise in income among residents who commute to D.C. thanks an expanded Federal job force with lavish salaries and bennies?

Buy Danish on June 26, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Well in Ohio the tv is already getting crazy with presidential commercials……….
I really don’t know many non minorities voting dimocRAT, so there is good chance of Rmoney™ taking Ohio ……………..;)

angrymike on June 26, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Buy Danish on June 26, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Nah, they like throwing that one out there as a way to tell us “give up already; you’re going to lose anyway.” It’s a way to win the battle by having us desert it.

JeffWeimer on June 26, 2012 at 12:03 PM

And we get along with him quite well. Which probably puzzles LFOD to no end. After all, all he knows is everyone must toe the party line or else. That’s how they roll at DU.

JeffWeimer on June 26, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Most do I suppose. I am quite nasty myself with him from time to time. His atheism proselytizing got to be very tiresome for a time there. But what annoys me the most about our resident beta is his need to always be an Eeyore. Maybe he remains anonymous because he secretly wears black mascara, dyes his hair black, wears black cloths, and spends 23 of 24 hours of the day in a dark room contemplating the futility of life.

Or maybe I need to lighten up. Regardless, there are far worse on the intrawebnets then AP.

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Dunno.

I feel strangely cheated by his absence though.

If not banned… fleabagger?

FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 12:00 PM

The fact that he went on permanent hiatus may be an indicator he really was a Moby.

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Do you even know what you’re talking about? I know you won’t hear this from a conservative, but Rasmussen was actually the outlier in this case.
The most recent Michigan polls:
Mitchell Research 6/18 – 6/18 750 LV 47 46 Obama +1
WeAskAmerica 6/18 – 6/18 1010 LV 43 45 Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports 6/14 – 6/14 500 LV 50 42 Obama +8
Baydoun/Foster (D) 6/12 – 6/12 1783 LV 47 46 Obama +1
EPIC-MRA 6/2 – 6/5 600 LV 45 46 Romney +1

GOPRanknFile on June 26, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Don’t hit him with stats/figures/facts, he might never recover…

jimver on June 26, 2012 at 12:06 PM

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Eh. You need to lighten up. Nobody’s perfect, but no one is more entertaining (or brilliant) than Allahpundit. To say that he “proselytizes” is a huge stretch in any case. It’s more a case of “I report you decide”, and the Q.O.T.D. is an example of this. People get so annoyed with him for daring to link to what the other side is saying as if it’s some sort of betrayal of conservatism.

Buy Danish on June 26, 2012 at 12:13 PM

With the massive vote fraud by democrats in Wisconsin Walker probably actually won by between 8-10 points which makes WAA polling pretty darn close.

Capitalist Infidel on June 26, 2012 at 12:13 PM

I think Angryed got the hammer last month……

angrymike on June 26, 2012 at 12:13 PM

People get so annoyed with him for daring to link to what the other side is saying as if it’s some sort of betrayal of conservatism.

Buy Danish on June 26, 2012 at 12:13 PM

I don’t have a problem with that. Like I said, his most annoying trait to me is his paragraphs long Eeyore analysis. Just get it over with in one sentence and move on.

“SMOD didn’t come yesterday, but it will surely come tomorrow, so nothing matters.”

But whatever. I skip over his 100% Eeyore posts nowadays anyways. Most of the time.

NotCoach on June 26, 2012 at 12:17 PM

We Ask America basically ruined their reputation forever with that awful final poll in the Walker recall.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM

A pollster ruins his reputation forever for being wrong by +5 – a result within the MoE – in a single race? I guess there aren’t any reputable pollsters left to you.

joana on June 26, 2012 at 12:18 PM

There, there. We’ve still got ddrintn :)

thebrokenrattle on June 26, 2012 at 11:54 AM

..who is really angryed without the Thorazine.

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 12:19 PM

A pollster ruins his reputation forever for being wrong by +5 – a result within the MoE – in a single race? I guess there aren’t any reputable pollsters left to you.

joana on June 26, 2012 at 12:18 PM

..by golly, Flora was correct!

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 12:20 PM

I really do miss angryed.
Seriously, I do.
FlaMurph on June 26, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Realign your site.

FinallyRight on June 26, 2012 at 12:20 PM

For Romney to win VA is NOT a tall order. Winning PA, MI, and/or WI may be a tall order but NOT VA!

VA wasn’t even contested in 2004 and Bush won it by 8%. Furthermore, Northern Virginia is overrated when it comes to the Dems advantage. Obama won Fairfax County will only 60% of the vote. That’s not overwhelmingly Democratic to ensure a VA win, not like how Philadelphia, Detroit or Chicago are to their respective states.

Romney will easily offset the gains from Fairfax County from his gains in Virginia Beach County. The rest fot the state with the exception of Richmond, Norfolk, Arlington, and Alexandria Cities will be overwhelming red.

Firecracker729 on June 26, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Hold it one second. WAA predicted Walker would get 54% of the vote and he got 53.1% How is that a huge miss?

mitchellvii on June 26, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 12:20 PM

heh. Too easy. ;-)

Flora Duh on June 26, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Be very careful with RCP averages. Some of the polls included are not real good polls. This poll was of likely voters, which is an important consideration. Many of the polls are of registered voters, and are not representative of who will determine the election’s outcome.

JayDick on June 26, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I agree that RCP averages include lots of outliers, including the national Bloomberg poll showing Obama leading Romney by 13%, which no one with half a brain would take seriously.

However, Ed’s point that We Ask America overstated Scott Walker’s margin of victory by 5% is valid, since we’re comparing to the results of an actual election. WAA seems to be a new polling outfit, and may not have perfected their sampling / weighting procedure yet. In Wisconsin, Marquette University’s last two polls had Walker’s margin at 7%, and Rasmussen’s last poll showed Walker by +6.

I haven’t seen any Marquette polls of Virginia, but I would trust a Rasmussen poll more than WAA. For now, Virginia is probably a tossup, and Romney needs to get a ground game there.

Steve Z on June 26, 2012 at 12:32 PM

If subsequent polling shows Romney ahead and Allen going up over Kaine, then perhaps this will be considered the bellwether, but for the moment it’s not much more than speculative.

The Romney campaign’s doing more than speculating. They’ve produced television commercials specifically targeted to Virginia and Ohio (http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-campaign-releases-commercials-tailored-to-swing-states) and is outspending the Obama campaign 2:1 in key television markets throughout both states (http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-outspends-obama-almost-2-1-hottest-tv-ad-markets).

That seems very low for a well-known Democrat like Kaine (both men served one term as governor)

Both Allen and Kaine served only one term because in Virginia a sitting governor cannot legally run for re-election.

bgoldman on June 26, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Not so sure why Ed and everyone are such eeyores on Virginia. Obama won it last time by 6. So? He won nationally by 7. So a Romney 5 point lead in VA is akin to a national poll showing a Romney lead of 4. On the high side, but not outside of the current range.

besser tot als rot on June 26, 2012 at 12:37 PM

On an anecdotal note, we have a lot of family that still lives in Virginia. And a lot of those folk voted for Obama last time. It won’t happen again.

besser tot als rot on June 26, 2012 at 12:38 PM

If Mitt can’t beat President Lawless…….

God help us.

PappyD61 on June 26, 2012 at 12:43 PM

A PPP poll yesterday had Romney up 22 points with independents, in Oregon.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Given that the GOP has now taken over VA state government and the congressional delegation between 2009 and 2011, I see nothing odd about a Romney plurality in a likely voter poll of VA. VA outside of the DC suburbs has sharply turned against the Dems.

Bart DePalma on June 26, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Without VA, Romney will have to get to from CO, NV, and WI or win MI – not a simple task.

Lou Budvis on June 26, 2012 at 12:53 PM

While I agree with WWA has to be taken with a grain of salt, I don’t think its a useless poll either. They did a fair amount of primary polling, and a couple of their polls came awfully close to the actual outcome. I think they probably do need to refine their sampling methods a bit, but they’re certainly not useless.

Also.

RCP itself I think is an over rated tool. Averages may suggest Romney has an uphill struggle in Virginia, but WWA isn’t the only pollster to ever show Romney ahead there.

WolvenOne on June 26, 2012 at 12:59 PM

A PPP poll yesterday had Romney up 22 points with independents, in Oregon.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Do you have a link to the poll?

steebo77 on June 26, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Has anyone considered that We Ask America actually had the Wisconsin election correct if there wasn’t massive fraud by the Unions and Democrats? Toss out the fake ballots from out of state then Walker would have won with a greater margin closer to what We Ask America ended up with.

cadams on June 26, 2012 at 1:05 PM

That seems very low for a well-known Democrat like Kaine (both men served one term as governor)

This shows you’re not from Virginia. Kaine turned off a LOT of Virginians when he chaired the DNC and spouted nonsense like DWS does now.

Allen was very popular in this state until the “macaca” episode right before the election. People didn’t even know exactly what it was about, but they heard Allen was a horrible racist and that’s all they needed to hear. But now after the election and people have had time to reflect on that event, they know it wasn’t nearly as bad as it was made out to be.

ButterflyDragon on June 26, 2012 at 1:19 PM

One & Done will be done in the Old Dominion – Bank on it!

Bob in VA on June 26, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Not so sure why Ed and everyone are such eeyores on Virginia. Obama won it last time by 6. So? He won nationally by 7. So a Romney 5 point lead in VA is akin to a national poll showing a Romney lead of 4. On the high side, but not outside of the current range.

besser tot als rot on June 26, 2012 at 12:37 PM

..this is refreshingly optimistic of you — and welcome.

The War Planner on June 26, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Umm. No.

One poll does not a lead make.

These guys have been wrong before. A lot.

Marcus Traianus on June 26, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Obama has a lot of ads running in MI. Superpacs are running anti Obama ads here. Obama must be worried. This also might explain why Obama’s burn rate was so high in the last reporting period. If Obama has to “defend” traditionally blue states this early, he is in trouble. We hardly saw any ads in 2008 since McCain readily ceded this state early in the process. Obama should be worried because most of the dems I know here supported Hillary over Obama in 2008. So Obama’s support here is not that deep

karenhasfreedom on June 26, 2012 at 1:33 PM

That seems very low for a well-known Democrat like Kaine (both men served one term as governor),

Let’s make it clear to all that VA governors can only serve four years. They can serve two terms but not back-to-back.

I would agree that Kaine is well-known but he is hardly beloved. There is a brutal ad running right now that points out that Kaine essentially abandoned his responsibilities on behalf of the Old Dominion to become Obama’s traveling lapdog.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

I just polled myself with a %0.0 margin of error and I can tell you Obama is toast with Brian72s.

Brian1972 on June 26, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Democrats have had a track record of success in the state, although the 2009 elections turned into a disaster for them.

2010 House elections weren’t much better. Republicans flipped 3 seats, came within 0.5% of flipping a 4th, and had a net majority of almost 140,000 votes (not counting the district where the Ds didn’t run anyone, and the R won by 100,000 votes).

To top it off, unlike Obama, McDonald (Gov R) has done a good job.

It’s going to take major work by Obama to win VA. I don’t think he has a serious chance of doing it.

Greg Q on June 26, 2012 at 1:42 PM

To top it off, unlike Obama, McDonald McDonnell (Gov R) has done a good job.

Greg Q on June 26, 2012 at 1:42 PM

There, fify.

Brian1972 on June 26, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Virginia will be red this year. Bank it.

SouthernGent on June 26, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Do you have a link to the poll?

steebo77 on June 26, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Don’t actually have a link to the poll but here is a link to CAC at Ace’s. The info comes from PPP’s official twitter page.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 1:51 PM

If Romney can carry Virginia, it puts him in position to retake Ohio and challenge in Pennsylvania as well.

I don’t understand this logic. If Romney doesn’t win Ohio it’s doubtful he will win Virginia, IMHO.

Rocks on June 26, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Since both states will be voting at the same time, I don’t see how the results in one can affect the results in another. And I’m also happy to know that residents of Ohio and Virginia are looking for the “other state” to show them how to vote.

BobMbx on June 26, 2012 at 1:52 PM

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