NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney by eight points in swing states

posted at 8:02 pm on June 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

It’s a slow news day and this is the national poll du jour so I have to blog it, but I really don’t want to. At first glance, the sample isn’t terrible: 42D/38R/14I if you include leaners, but look more closely and you’ll see a tilt. For one thing, the split between “strong Democrats” and “strong Republicans” is 21/13, and overall 41 percent say they voted for Obama four years ago compared to just 30 percent who say they voted for McCain. The One won that election by … seven points. See why it’s hard to take it seriously?

Despite the bluish tilt, Romney trails O overall by just three points. Two months ago, Obama led by six. As for the swing states:

Among swing-state respondents in the poll – those living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney, 50 to 42 percent.

Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped, possibly reflecting the toll the negative Obama TV advertisements are having on the former Massachusetts governor in these battlegrounds.

A month ago, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable score stood at 34-38 percent nationally and 36-36 percent in the 12 swing states.

But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33-39 percent and 30-41 percent in the swing states.

How much does it really tell us to lump reliably blue states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in with true battlegrounds like Ohio and Virginia? I know some Republicans think Romney can win the first two, but that’s unlikely to happen unless we end up with a glorious red landslide in which Romney dominates the true swing states and ends up picking off a few purplish blues. Use a more realistic survey of true swing states (and a more realistic sample, natch) and that eight-point spread will tighten quite a bit.

Anyway. Let’s pretend that this is a good, smart, sound poll whose data we should regard with utmost seriousness. The numbers on the economy here look … not so good. Remember that smelly jobs report we got a few weeks ago? Turns out an awful lot of people — not a majority but a lot — think 69,000 jobs added in a month is pretty darned sweet:

Lot of low-information voters out there. And despite the car accident that is the eurozone and the ominous odds of a double dip now coming from places like S&P, hope continues to spring eternal:

This is interesting too. Even if you toss out the August 2011 numbers as an outlier, O’s trendline here is strikingly flat:

Despite nearly two more years of economic malaise, Obama’s actually doing better on this question now than he was in September 2010, shortly before the big red wave broke in the midterms. What’s strange about all this is that, on the basic question of which party will better handle the economy, the GOP is now out to a six-point lead, its biggest advantage in this poll since O was sworn in. So maybe all of the above data is a red herring: Voters sympathize with how Obama took office amid a financial crisis and they buy his basic narrative that the economy is improving, however slowly, but when push comes to shove they’re ready to give Republicans a turn. That’s possibly the single most encouraging item for Romney in this poll.

A few other random data points. This one is curious:

I’m going to assume that either May was an outlier or this month’s poll is, as it’s hard to explain why Romney’s support would be getting softer lately while O’s is firming up. Obama’s had a lousy run lately with plenty of economic bad news. I can buy that he hasn’t lost anyone (yet) but I don’t quite buy that he’s locking people in while Romney’s losing them.

Immigration?

Maybe that sudden tilt towards the Dems is another sample artifact, but I don’t know. Note that Democrats had their biggest advantage five years ago when the congressional push for comprehensive immigration reform was at its most intense. It may be that having immigration in the spotlight mobilizes the lefty base and then, as the issue fades, the GOP gradually makes gains. Between Obama’s DREAM gambit, Rubio’s proposed DREAM bill, and anticipation for the Supreme Court’s Arizona decision, there’s been a lot of immigration chatter lately. And lo and behold, the Democrats are back on top.

One more, just to show you how low-information those low-information voters are. Here are the favorable ratings for Bain and Solyndra; the first column is “very positive,” then “somewhat positive,” then “neutral,” “somewhat negative,” and “very negative,” followed of course by “don’t know.”

Just a friendly reminder that the things we spend our days obsessing about here rarely make a dent with average voters, even when, a la Bain, the media has every incentive to make sure that they do.


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No way, AP. People are already voting… with their campaign dollars. And it’s already clear that they aren’t buying another four years of Obama.

VastRightWingConspirator on June 26, 2012 at 8:06 PM

NBC? If their polls are anything like their video editing, I don’t trust them.

vcferlita on June 26, 2012 at 8:06 PM

NBC. That explains it all.

WannabeAnglican on June 26, 2012 at 8:06 PM

The Death of America

Author: Low Info Voter

hillsoftx on June 26, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Ace is right, Allah loves posting polls that favor Obama.

The Notorious G.O.P on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

More nuttiness from the two worst left-biased organizations posing as journalists.

(Note: Groseclose’s system finds NBC Nightly News to near the center politically, but he doesn’t include the amateurs at PMSNBC in his study.)

Jaibones on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

cripe…it’s time for an adult beverage…

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

And wait till they switch to a likely voter model and prepare to laugh.

Ca97 on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Obama is Americas Death panel.

All hail our new God.

Next thing you know small schoolchildren will be singing songs about him like they do in North Korea.

Oh wait……..

PappyD61 on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

msdnc and cnn to tout this poll ad nauseum

blech

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

One thing you have to realize about these clowns is they will NEVER have Obama behind. They have too much invested in this clown that 90% of the media voted for and that includes slanted absurd samples if that’s what it takes.

gsherin on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

cripe…it’s time for an adult beverage…

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

*clink* in advance.

Electrongod on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Sure got a lotta charts in a post on a poll you didn’t wanna blog in the first place. Usually I just like to look at the pictures, but not this time.

stukinIL4now on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

yeah right, and the muslim brotherhood is a “largely secular” organization….horse squeeze….

thedevilinside on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

RedNewEnglander on June 26, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I’m an Independent voter who never voted until 2010. I have the impression these polling institutions aren’t gauging the degree to which some have “awoken”, are engaged, and are going to vote against Obama.

I know a few moderates who voted for Obama in 2008, and their political POV has shifted completely rightward in 4 years. They will show up to vote Romney.

My point being — I think these polling joints are really slow to pick up on the mood of independents (even after the 2010 midterms). They’re not adapting their models accordingly because they’re relying on an old paradigm.

To me, Obama looks like the creepy drunk college guy hanging out at a high school party, and everyone is clearing out to avoid him (and giving him the wrong directions to the next party).

shannon76 on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Electrongod on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

*clink*

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

BS-NBC. Looking at your track record, we don’t believe it for a minute. NBC? Pfffft.

petefrt on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

When did they start calling them low information voters? I’ve always called them retards.

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

AP, this poll has Obama over McCain by 11 points. It is from NBC. Why the hell do you even present this BS here?

mitchellvii on June 26, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Any way you slice it, this poll is bad news. Voters just like Obama too much personally to blame him for the economy.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Maybe Bertolt Brecht was right. Dissolve the people and elect another.

T-Rav on June 26, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

cousin pookie and the gang

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Just a friendly reminder that the things we spend our days obsessing about here rarely make a dent with average voters,

Say it isn’t so!

Seriously, I’m quite happy with where Romney is in the polling right now. Between the incumbancy and the landslide in 2008, Obama should be where Bill Clinton was when running for a second term. Instead you see a Democrat party fraying at the edges, a President that is increasingly erratic in the Nixonian way he is bypassing the rule of law to hand out edicts. There are not one but two scandals brewing in the wings. And states that shouldn’t be in play are vulnerable.

Nothing is a given at this point but it seems to me that Obama is on the wrong trajectory at this point. Still plenty of time to turn things around but I’m not seeing any indication that he and his people understand the reality around them.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Lol

Is the economy in recovery hahhaha lol lol hahaha

Good one NBC

Conservative4ev on June 26, 2012 at 8:15 PM

When will all these pollsters change to likely voters? After Labor Day?

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 8:15 PM

When did they start calling them low information voters? I’ve always called them retards.

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

They prefer the term progressives.

Seriously though, do you really have to use the “R” word? I’m trying to be overly PC but this term has always bothered me.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 8:17 PM

…What’s strange about all this is that, on the basic question of which party will better handle the economy, the GOP is now out to a six-point lead, its biggest advantage in this poll since O was sworn in…

It’s not strange if you consider this poll was probably heavy on battleground state voters.

Republican Governor’s are presiding over the economic turnaround in midwest states, and people are keenly aware of that.

So, what most of these assclowns are hoping for, is Barry will become Clinton and work with a GOP Congress and Gop-lead states.

Except, he has no plans to do that. See: Arizona. Yesterday.

And once enough of these low-IQ voters catch onto that, they’ll simply stay at home, despondent that 0′s such an ideologue.

budfox on June 26, 2012 at 8:18 PM

OT how come no reporting of Russian military exercises in Artic in June?

txmomof6 on June 26, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Ridiculous. What a load of crap.

Haunches on June 26, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Seriously though, do you really have to use the “R” word? I’m trying to be overly PC but this term has always bothered me.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Agreed, I like the “L” word—Libtards.

hillsoftx on June 26, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Low information voters? That’s being awfully kind.

changer1701 on June 26, 2012 at 8:21 PM

If Obama’s doing as well as this poll suggests, why is the Obama campaign in panic mode?

Curtiss on June 26, 2012 at 8:21 PM

When did they start calling them low information voters? I’ve always called them retards.

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Ah yes, those idiots that build high-growth companies like Microsoft, Facebook, and Apple. No understanding of economics, capitalism, or the truth underlying ‘crony’ capitalism.

http://swampland.time.com/2012/05/31/mitt-romneys-ads-still-wrong-on-the-stimulus/

If only the govm’nt would get out of the way, Joe the Plumber and his like would build the Google of plumbing, or something like that…

bayam on June 26, 2012 at 8:23 PM

NOT.BUYING.IT.

katy on June 26, 2012 at 8:25 PM

When did they start calling them low information voters? I’ve always called them retards low info democrats.

Mark1971 on June 26, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Heh.

petefrt on June 26, 2012 at 8:26 PM

First order of business for the Romney Administration is to kill O-care.

Second order of business is to ban Hot Air from discussing polls.

#PointlessEeyorism

chimney sweep on June 26, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Excuse me, but I find it impossible to believe this poll. Consider the following stories of just this past week;

* Obama’s Team stages awful “Obama Events Registry” because it is obvious their 2008 donors are not coughing up donations at the same level.

* Democratic luminaries, such as Claire McCaskill, are not going to the convention as “Super-delegates”.

* The DNC had to cancel a start-up event due to lack of funding.

It is in the elite media’s best interest to make this race look as close as possible for as long as possible.

What are you going to believe, some ginned-up poll or your own lying eyes?

Mutnodjmet on June 26, 2012 at 8:27 PM

If Obama’s doing as well as this poll suggests, why is the Obama campaign in panic mode?

Curtiss on June 26, 2012 at 8:21 PM

What makes you think Obama is in panic mode?

cjw79 on June 26, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Between the incumbancy and the landslide in 2008, Obama should be where Bill Clinton was when running for a second term. Instead you see a Democrat party fraying at the edges

Not really- there’s no reason to assume that Obama would have won without the near collapse of our financial system.
Voters are still focused on the economy and whoever’s in office will ultimately be held accountable for the US economy, which stands to follow the course of economic events in Europe and China.

As bad as things are now, there’s a good chance that the situation will worsen after the next election. Will winning in 2012 be a curse?

http://www.businessinsider.com/steven-strauss-were-heading-for-another-depression-so-why-is-the-stock-market-trading-like-everythings-fine-2012-6

bayam on June 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Are these the same clowns who said the Wisconsin recall vote was a toss-up?

fogw on June 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

it’s time for an adult beverage…

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

*clink* in advance.

Electrongod on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Fine. *Clink*

Jaibones on June 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Ace is right, Allah loves posting polls that favor Obama.

The Notorious G.O.P on June 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Maybe he’s trying to keep us fired up and motivated. No need AP. I’ll be camped out like a Star Wars geek on election day, if necessary.

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Are these the same clowns who said the Wisconsin recall vote was a toss-up?

fogw on June 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Guilty, as charged.

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:29 PM

When was the last time polls were wrong in a Presidential race?

Bush and Gore were always neck and neck, Bush and Kerry were close, but Bush held a narrow lead, Obama was destroying McCain (after financial crisis and McCain suspends his campaign) and destroyed him in the general election, etc.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Avoid overconfidence; wrong, avoid confidence.
Fight like we’re 8 points behind, and we could be there in a heart beat, as O certainly has tricks up his sleeve that he’s saving for October.
We need to stop the pre-gloat. We are in for the shock of our lifetime, if we don’t start to turn on the power, donate time and money. Add your imagination to the campaign to defeat the greatest anti-Amerian of all time. Donate$.

anotherJoe on June 26, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Jaibones on June 26, 2012 at 8:28 PM

alright :)

cmsinaz on June 26, 2012 at 8:31 PM

One thing you have to realize about these clowns is they will NEVER have Obama behind. They have too much invested in this clown that 90% of the media voted for and that includes slanted absurd samples if that’s what it takes.

gsherin on June 26, 2012 at 8:09 PM

I fully agree, but would speculate that it’s possible that they DO have results where SippyCup is behind. Problem is, they simply Executive-Privilege those results which will never see daylight.

SnarkySam on June 26, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Seriously though, do you really have to use the “R” word? I’m trying to be overly PC but this term has always bothered me.

Happy Nomad on June 26, 2012 at 8:17 PM

retard is vital vernacular

it’s funny and descriptive

Slade73 on June 26, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Can you stop showing pictures of Odumbo. My wife is wondering why I keep flipping off the monitor. Just reflex.

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:35 PM

If only the govm’nt would get out of the way, Joe the Plumber and his like would build the Google of plumbing, or something like that…

bayam on June 26, 2012 at 8:23 PM

that’s just dumb. and never post a link to swampland again please *shudder*

Slade73 on June 26, 2012 at 8:36 PM

If the Democrats raise funds at their current rate, they’ll be holding their convention at the fairgrounds. Guess where the money is going?

Start packing your sock drawer, Zero.

Philly on June 26, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Is this that game where I say, “I doubt it”?

Fallon on June 26, 2012 at 8:39 PM

NBC?

Ann Curry says BS!!!!!

Detroit News has it as a tie in our Semi-Great Lake State

carry on….and good night now.

not-ur-avragejoe on June 26, 2012 at 8:39 PM

NO way, unless we have some really stupid people!

Bambi on June 26, 2012 at 8:40 PM

See why it’s hard to take it seriously?

It has the stench of NBC on it. At least a street whore is honest about what she does for a living.

GarandFan on June 26, 2012 at 8:42 PM

When was the last time polls were wrong in a Presidential race?

Bush and Gore were always neck and neck, Bush and Kerry were close, but Bush held a narrow lead, Obama was destroying McCain (after financial crisis and McCain suspends his campaign) and destroyed him in the general election, etc.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:30 PM

The polls were way off in 1996 with CBS/NYT having Clinton winning by 18.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 8:43 PM

bayam’s pretty stupid

Slade73 on June 26, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Can you stop showing pictures of Odumbo. My wife is wondering why I keep flipping off the monitor. Just reflex.

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I agree! However, every time he comes on, which is about every hour or so, my husand tells me I’m scaring the dog. I have to assure her that I’m not mad at her. I will be so glad never to see his face on tv again, ever!

Bambi on June 26, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Funny! Yeah/ 0 is going down. All the way down too.

Bmore on June 26, 2012 at 8:44 PM

BET YOU SOMETHING WAS EDITED!

KOOLAID2 on June 26, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Ah yes, those idiots that build high-growth companies like Microsoft, Facebook, and Apple. No understanding of economics, capitalism, or the truth underlying ‘crony’ capitalism.

Yes, the same ones that shield their wealth from taxes when near death, like Jobs did. While exhorting the rest of us to pay more. Yup, libtards,

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:45 PM

It’s a poll from NBC!

In other words, from the Obama Relection Campaign.

Lourdes on June 26, 2012 at 8:45 PM

I imagine…a poll such as this…

Question:

Do you support Obama or do you hope for his change to be continued in the next four years as a second term?

Lourdes on June 26, 2012 at 8:47 PM

The polls were way off in 1996 with CBS/NYT having Clinton winning by 18.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 8:43 PM

If I remember right, the polls had Carter beating Reagan by 15-20 a month before the election. Oops.

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:49 PM

People are voting with their property, in other words, donations, money.

Note that Obama is out there begging for more along with the DNC. I think it might be a ploy to grab as much money for Obama and wife to live on after January 2013, so they “win” either way, is the strategy.

But from who is supporting who, it appears that Romney is leading and for great reasons compared with the current O-Mess.

Lourdes on June 26, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Obama is doing poorly with independents. So they’re grossly under-sampled.

Why is Indiana is not on the list, but New Mexico is? And there’s been some talk of Obama taking AZ – also not on the list. Some of these states are a real stretch as “swing states”. Toss New Mexico and Nevada and add Arizona and Indiana, and properly sample Independents, and the headline would be different.

forest on June 26, 2012 at 8:53 PM

“If I remember right, the polls had Carter beating Reagan by 15-20 a month before the election. Oops.”

True, but the public was much more pessimistic about the economy then, as opposed to now with 51% believing the economy is in recovery.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:53 PM

NBC?

And they do polls?

Hah.

/NBC = Nothing But Crap

Key West Reader on June 26, 2012 at 8:53 PM

If only the govm’nt would get out of the way, Joe the Plumber and his like would build the Google of plumbing, or something like that…

bayam on June 26, 2012 at 8:23 PM

You have a point. For example, Bill Gates created Microsoft by teaming with HHS and getting every single idea approved by multiple levels of redundant, sterile, federal bureaucracy.

Bishop on June 26, 2012 at 8:53 PM

True, but the public was much more pessimistic about the economy then, as opposed to now with 51% believing the economy is in recovery.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:53 PM | Delete | Delete and Ban

Er, I just shut my doors after 15 years in business and laid off several people. So please don’t tell me that I’m believing that the oconomy is doing better. It’s not. Ask anybody.

Key West Reader on June 26, 2012 at 8:55 PM

I can’t figure why WSJ allows itself to be tied to NBC’s hip on their polling. Aren’t they worried their credibility is taking a hit?

Bitter Clinger on June 26, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Always remember:

Polls are lagging indicators.

Get back to me in 6 weeks, where romney will hold a steady 5-8% lead overall. After the conventions Romney will lead by a 10% average. Going into the final weekend there will be a “tightening” of the “polls”. On election day the “exit polls” will show a tie or a slight Obama lead. AP, Republican weaklings completely lose it. Romney wins with 320+ and 4-5% overall.

str8tface on June 26, 2012 at 8:59 PM

The swing state and the national results are contradictory.

By the way, I think we can retire North Carolina of the swing states list. Team Obama is giving up on it.

Top 10 media markets this week:
1. Colorado Springs, CO – Obama 1550, Romney 1535
2. Roanoke-Lynchburg, VA – Romney 1515, Obama 1400
3. Cincinnati, OH – Obama 1500, Romney 1230
4. Richmond-Petersburg, VA – Obama 1700,Romney 1015
5. Denver, CO – Obama 1640; Romney 1000
6. Norfolk, VA – Obama 1600, Romney 970
7. Ft. Myers, FL – Obama 1300, Romney 1115
8. Cleveland, OH – Obama 1615, Romney 925
9. Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL – Obama 1675, Romney 705
10. Reno, NV – Obama 1500, Romney 800

(ad points numbers include PACs and SuperPACs expenditures)

Not a single NC market.

A week ago:
6. Raleigh-Durham, NC – Romney 2055, Obama 870
7. Greensboro, NC – Romney 1450, Obama 770
9. Charlotte, NC – Romney 1500, Obama 800
10. Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville, NC – Obama 1175, Crossroads 1040

—-

Also, Obama’s campaign is burning money at an unsustainable rate right now. They’re dwarfing Romney + SuperPAC expenditures.

It’s very worrying for Obama that the polls keep tightening – and even this poll is better to Romney than the last NBC/WSJ poll – when they’re obviously going all in.

joana on June 26, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Yes. It’s true. Obama wins in a landslide in 2012.

minnesoter on June 26, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Thank you, AP. Thank you for preparing us for this awful news.

minnesoter on June 26, 2012 at 9:02 PM

EIGHT points. My God, my God. What are we to do?

minnesoter on June 26, 2012 at 9:02 PM

If people want to obsess over crosstabs in this poll (I don’t recommend it… people try to read too much into crosstabs, not understanding they’re almost always pretty immaterial because the sub-samples are so small), check the percentage of 45 or younger voters.

joana on June 26, 2012 at 9:03 PM

NBC poll?

PffffffffffffffffffT

Barack Hussein Obama = One Hit Wonder

…’nuff said.

FlatFoot on June 26, 2012 at 9:03 PM

It’s still early, but Romney will have to start making headway in this area. It’s all kinds of fun to look at Obama’s incumbent numbers in these polls, even his “good” ones, but the scary fact is that if Obama wins PA, WI, and VA, he’s at 260 votes. If he wins PA, WI, and OH, he’s at 265.

Romney can still run the table from there – in fact, he’s a dead lock to almost run the table in swing states outside of PA and WI – but almost won’t be good enough.

HitNRun on June 26, 2012 at 9:04 PM

The Swing States are all that really matter here. The other 57 states are irrelevant.

minnesoter on June 26, 2012 at 9:05 PM

So we have a poll which has a sample that includes 41% who voted for Obama and 30% who voted for McCain…and evidently 29% who did not vote. I think we can assume this is not a likely voters poll and only well dramatically skewed…

Of course I look at polls by NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post and FOX polls as a waste of breath. Polling by FOX is the one area I think they are just as useless as these others…All are skewed and all poll whoever answers the phone…

DVPTexFla on June 26, 2012 at 9:05 PM

The polls were way off in 1996 with CBS/NYT having Clinton winning by 18.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 8:43 PM

And to add to that, the polls were a lot wider in the weeks before the election before the polls magically were cut in half. The performance of pollsters in 1996 was flat-out embarrassing.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 9:10 PM

National
Barack
Channel

SouthernGent on June 26, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Voters just like Obama too much personally to blame him for the economy.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Yeah, he’s so popular that no Democrat politician wants to be caught within miles of the guy, and every single election of national significance since 2009 has gone against him.

Right Mover on June 26, 2012 at 9:16 PM

DO NOT DESPAIR. Tune out. Turn off. Walk away.

It’s not worth it.

minnesoter on June 26, 2012 at 9:19 PM

The economy is looking up. People in the Swing States understand this.

All we need are more taxes and regulations on private business and all will do just fine.

They owe us. Make them pay. Then we can balance the books and give everyone who’s supported us a taste.

minnesoter on June 26, 2012 at 9:25 PM

It’s a slow news day and this is the national poll du jour so I have to blog it, but I really don’t want to.

Well Shepard Smith Allah, you really don’t have to blog about it but I suspect that you enjoy blogging about it because you can’t help yourself. How about some fantastic PeeWee Herman Andrew Kaczynski snark while you’re at it?

cicerone on June 26, 2012 at 9:35 PM

retard is vital vernacular

it’s funny and descriptive

Slade73 on June 26, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Not if you have friend or loved one who is mentally challenged.

silvernana on June 26, 2012 at 9:35 PM

The polls were way off in 1996 with CBS/NYT having Clinton winning by 18.

midgeorgian on June 26, 2012 at 8:43 PM

If I remember right, the polls had Carter beating Reagan by 15-20 a month before the election. Oops.

msupertas on June 26, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Not really. Carter and Reagan were pretty much neck-and-neck up until their debate and Reagan’s nationally televised speech.

The thing is, I seem to remember Kerry doing better against Bush at this point than Romney is doing against Obama. Yet we hear silliness about Team O and the Dems being in “panic mode”.

ddrintn on June 26, 2012 at 9:35 PM

Get back to me in 6 weeks, where romney will hold a steady 5-8% lead overall. After the conventions Romney will lead by a 10% average. Going into the final weekend there will be a “tightening” of the “polls”. On election day the “exit polls” will show a tie or a slight Obama lead. AP, Republican weaklings completely lose it. Romney wins with 320+ and 4-5% overall.

str8tface on June 26, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Did you type that with a str8tface?

ddrintn on June 26, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Not really. Carter and Reagan were pretty much neck-and-neck up until their debate and Reagan’s nationally televised speech.

Yes, but not in June.

The thing is, I seem to remember Kerry doing better against Bush at this point than Romney is doing against Obama. Yet we hear silliness about Team O and the Dems being in “panic mode”.

ddrintn on June 26, 2012 at 9:35 PM

I guess you wouldn’t be whom you are if you didn’t wallow in false equivalence. If you think of Kerry as The Liberal Democrat rather than The Challenger, your analogy comes into better focus.

As you may have heard, the media is biased. This makes it very comfortable to be a liberal consumer of media in this country, except when it comes to auguring polls.

HitNRun on June 26, 2012 at 9:51 PM

Nothing But Crap – NBC

The MSM is so invested in Obama, they will keep the polls biased for him up through Election Day, and the exit polls will be crap too.

Obama is consistently under 50. That is fatal news for any incumbent.

Don’t spend ten cents on anything you don’t need until Halloween – including EVERYTHING – durable goods, restaurants, clothes etc. Save your money or pay down debt.

matthew8787 on June 26, 2012 at 9:54 PM

Swing state electors are not rewarded in aggregate. Piling all of the so-called “swing states” together, and then saying who leads, and by how much, is totally meaningless.

If Obama’s leading by twelve in Pennsylvania, and trailing by two each in Ohio and Wisconsin, he’s still going to lose Ohio and Wisconsin.

notropis on June 26, 2012 at 10:05 PM

Obama is going to LOSE Pennsylvania.

matthew8787 on June 26, 2012 at 10:18 PM

matthew8787 on June 26, 2012 at 10:18 PM

That was one of them hypotheticals. Personally, if economic and international conditions are similar to what they are now in November, I don’t see Obama pulling 180 electoral votes.

notropis on June 26, 2012 at 10:24 PM

matthew8787 on June 26, 2012 at 10:18 PM

That was one of them hypotheticals. Personally, if economic and international conditions are similar to what they are now in November, I don’t see Obama pulling 180 electoral votes.

notropis on June 26, 2012 at 10:24 PM

The international conditions will probably worsen by then, suffice to take a look at the global economy + the shite in the MIddle East + Russia playing their infamously silly games/posturing (I know, that’s not exactly news, but the intl context is more volatile now) + God knows what’s really going on in China (some analysts say that they are hiding the extent of their economic slowdown), then you have europe bungle its recovery (no surprise there) + the whole fiscal mess that they have on their hands (eurozone. – to be orot to be)…and here we will probably be on the verge of a new recession by the end of the year, so there is no way in heck Obama gets the electoral votes he needs to win this…0 chances…

jimver on June 26, 2012 at 11:03 PM

The press is going to do everything in their power to get Obama re-elected. They’re going to rig polls, they’re going to put out puff-pieces on Obama and a bunch of negative stuff on Romney, and they’re going to tear-down his vice-presidential nominee, no matter who it is. They felt the McCain/Palin playbook worked quite well and they’ll keep doing it until it fails.

This time, however, all they’re going to do is lose more credibility and, by the time this election is over, they’ll have none and it will be too late to try and get it back.

bflat879 on June 26, 2012 at 11:08 PM

This is a Poll for the purpose of shaping public opinion rather than measuring public opinion.

Just like the polls always do this far out.

jaydee_007 on June 26, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Outlier.

Adjoran on June 26, 2012 at 11:42 PM

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